Update: Here comes the rain again! USAToday catches up with Big Pink on the weather’s impact tomorrow:
Election Day weather forecast: Potent storm to blast eastern US, could affect voter turnout
A potent storm is forecast to blast portions of the eastern U.S. on Election Day with rain, wind and potentially strong thunderstorms.
The foul weather could affect both voter turnout and the election outcome in some battleground states Tuesday: Recent studies have found that Republican candidates tend to have a slight advantage when it rains.
In the Great Lakes and Northeast, wind-driven rain will make for a rough Election Day. Some wind gusts will exceed 40 mph in parts of the Great Lakes, interior Northeast and southeastern New England, the Weather Channel said. The heaviest rain is expected to soak New England and New York state, where flooding is possible.
Further to the south, in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to roar from Philadelphia to Atlanta, the Storm Prediction Center warned. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible as well as locally heavy rainfall, according to the Weather Channel.
In the north-central U.S., some wet snow – or rain changing to snow – is possible from North Dakota to northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. Light snowfall totals are expected. [snip]
Republicans may root for rainy weather on Election Day: A recent study revealed that at least 1 percent of voting age adults in the U.S. – people who would have voted for a Democrat had the weather been good – decided instead to cast their ballot for a Republican on rainy election days.
“Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people’s decisions on not only whether to vote, but also who they vote for,†said study co-author Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor of government at Dartmouth College.
“Contrary to the widely shared belief that weather conditions do not change voters’ electoral decisions,” the study said, “our analysis suggests that it is likely that a certain proportion of American voters would change their party preference depending on weather.”
A Hard Rain’s A Gonna Fall.
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In the end it might come down to the rain.
If it rains on election day, as is historically traditional, Obama Dimocrats will be in trouble. Or maybe not. Or maybe the polls will be right this time. Or maybe not. Or maybe candidates will do stupid things on election eve. Or maybe not. Or maybe the blue wave will wash over the shore. Or maybe not. Or there could be a terrorist attack. Or maybe not. Or the early vote with high GOP turnout could mean something. Or maybe not. Or one party might do well in senate elections but badly in local elections but well in gubernatorial elections. Or maybe not. Or Kavanaugh will be remembered and the now confessed lies that came from his accusers will be reflected on ballots on election day. Or maybe not. Or the Caravan. Or maybe not. Or Trump. Or maybe not. Or Big Media. Or maybe not. Or the great economy. Or maybe not. Or the women’s vote. Or maybe not. Or low unemployment. Or maybe not. Or the Supreme Court. Or maybe not. Or the many GOP resignations in the House. Or maybe not. Or Promises made Promises Kept. Or maybe not. Or North Korea. Or maybe not. Or the massive Obama Dimocrat spending advantage this election cycle. Or maybe not. Or all the accomplishments by President Trump. Or maybe not. Or Trump job approval numbers. Or maybe not. Or bombers. Or maybe not. Or tax cuts. Or maybe not. Or Pelosi. Or maybe not. Or Obama. Or maybe not. Or the midterm curse for the party in power. Or maybe not. Or millenials who can’t find postage stamps for their absentee/early ballots. Or maybe not. Or happy blacks and latinos. Or maybe not. Or antifa. Or maybe not. Or whatever. Or maybe not.
So how can we make a fearless election forecast?
We’ve done it all except go to every state and every district to get a sense of what is happening. That’s a shame, but we’ve done just about everything else. We’ve read the so-called empirical data from polls. We’ve even visited the DailyKooks website to see what the loony left is up to (hint: they are nervous and begging “reasonable Republicans” to be stupid and vote against the great Trump). We watched Big Media outlets (which is like visiting DailyKooks). So how can we make a fearless election forecast???
The only way to make a fearless election forecast is to return to first principles – and even that is a risk. It’s a risk because… President Trump is unprecedented. Big Media and the entire establishment have so corroded politics in their ceaseless campaign of hate against President Trump that nothing, nothing, that comes from Big Media can be trusted.
The polls? Once upon a time the polls could be trusted as an attempt to gauge citizen opinion. No longer. Blatantly now, the polls are used to suppress the vote and twist public opinion to Big Media desires. In addition, the public is increasingly aware of how polls are used by Big Media and leftists to subvert public opinion, not measure public opinion. So in large measure much of the public that bothers to respond to polling questions either lies to the pollsters or pretends to be “undecided”.
For every poll that is published there is also the question of interpretation. For instance, those that respond that immigration is the most important issue to them – do they mean they want open borders or tough enforcement of our immigration laws and strong border protection?
Too many contradictory polls. Too many polls that show a candidate winning by 5 one day and losing by 5 the next day. Too many polls that show a super tight race and somehow ignore the many undecided voters.
Then there are the “generic” polls in House races. Talk about garbage. As we have noted often, it does not matter if Obama Dimocrats in Obama Dimocrat districts win their Obama Dimocrat districts by 100% and Trump Republicans win their districts by 2 or 3 points. A win is a win so that all these generic ballots created was the notion of a “blue wave” of Obama Dimocrat victories. What these generic polls by Big Media were designed to do was convince Trump voters that their vote was meaningless so why bother with a vote. The generic polls were a voter suppression tactic geared to help Obama Dimocrats and hurt Trump voters – especially independent voters.
Another component of the “blue wave” myth creation by Big Media was the historically accurate fact that in mid-term elections the governing party usually suffers losses. In 2009 we predicted massive losses for Obama Dimocrats in 2010 based on that history and on the disaster which was the Obama occupied White House.
The 2018 “blue wave” myth by Big Media could have had a leftist ending but for President Donald J. Trump. Recall how often we mocked Barack Obama when he declared that Obama Dimocrats would win big in 2010 because he would save them? We called “you’ve got me” a “death threat” not salvation. The Obama Death Threat: You’ve Got Me:
Asked how he was going to prevent a midterm disaster on the scale of 1994, Obama replied, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.†Which may be precisely the problem.â€
That is precisely the problem. “You’ve got me†isn’t a promise – it’s a death threat.
With worthless polls, history examined, opinion sampled from the right, left, and center, how can we make a fearless election forecast? All we are left with is first principles to make such a fearless forecast.
As we wrote in 2013 when we supported Hillary Clinton but still had the courage to point out what a “Muddled Message Mess” her campaign was, and been proven right every time, there really is only one question that must be asked every election season:
The central question for any campaign is whether the electorate must “stay the course!” or whether it is “time for a change!”. It’s one or the other. There is no other question. A merge, a double message won’t sell. A “let’s stay the course but change” concoction has as much appeal and logic as vegetarian pork chops. Hillary Clinton 2016 thus far mumbles non sequiturs hoping no one will notice the screeching echoes of the 2008 muddled message mess (which we tried to correct) when the campaign careened from message to message while the Obama campaign stuck to it’s simple and clear lie.
Our sole critique of the campaign appearances by President Trump and the entire GOP election effort is that they did not explicitly employ the term “STAY THE COURSE!” Both President Trump and the GOP efforts did imply “stay the course” but we think it would have been better to just say it. Yes, President Trump talked about the economy and how things are better in foreign and domestic policy. Yes the “stay the course” message was there as successful policy that will last long term was repeated over and over. But we still would have liked to hear explicitly “Stay the course!” Stay the freaking fu*king course!
Two weeks after President Trump was inaugurated we made our preliminary forecast about the 2018 elections:
What is that Nagasaki bomb that breaks the “Resistance†much like the Japanese resistance was broken? The 2018 elections. Only after Obama Dimocrats, after the November 2018 congressional elections, wake up to see the devastation of what their Obama madness has wrought will the fever break. Only then.
Only after the Supreme Court has 6 or 7 Republican Justices, all young, prepared to remain on the court for decade after decade after decade – only after Republicans maintain control of governorships and state legislatures and continue to make inroads into municipal governments, – only after the House of Representatives continues to grow its Republican majorities, – only after the 2018 elections result in well over 60 Republican senators, – will the Obama Dimocrat fever of madness break. Only then. That will be Nagasaki. That will be when the “Mistake in ’08†will be acknowledged even in the padded cells of the DNC.
Then, and only then, will Obama Dimocrats return to sanity.
The “resistance” we referred to back then was Obama Dimocrats. The GOP establishment “resistance” is something else. Paul Ryan for instance does not want to leave Washington D.C. with the GOP in control of the House so RINO Ryan has done everything to stymie President Trump on issues such as immigration and border control.
Still our early 2017 is closer to the mark of what we think will happen on November 6 than all the Big Media nonsense about a blue wave. Even the very Big Media outlets that led the “blue wave” bullsh*t talk for two years admit the blue wave is their desire not necessarily what will happen (although it took Big Media until the last few days before the election to admit what we understood all along about the non-existent “blue wave”):
To write off Trump’s message, or to see his voters as racist and deplorable, is to miss the point. It is not that the Democrats’ elite are geriatrics, though they certainly are; it is that they are too entrenched, too tone deaf and out of touch in myriad ways. The Clintons need to retire to discover the ambiguous pleasures of obscurity that the rest of us already know. Barack Obama is as eloquent as ever, and inspirational, but he needs to understand the dismay many of us feel when seeing him and his fellow Democrats taking money from big companies that outsource work and exploit foreign workers, all the while sucking up to celebrities.
A blue wave is predicted for the midterms. I’m not convinced of it. Trump proved most polls wrong for a reason. In Britain, a shy Tory is someone who will not reveal his or her intended vote to a pollster. There are many loud Trumpers, but there are shy Trumpers, too. So I distrust polls more than ever, especially as — after Trump won, and voters became more vocal — I discovered that many in my large and lovable and liberal-minded family, and maybe yours too, revealed themselves as shy Trumpers.
It took until the closing days of the election to discuss the “shy Trump” vote because it is real and one of the big reasons for why the polls are such a mess and not to be relied on.
Even Sean Trende who once upon a time was a good polling analyst but whose hatred of President Trump rendered his judgment useless in 2016, admitted on November 2, 2018 that there is no blue wave. Obama Dimocrats will likely pick up some House seats but not necessarily all of the 23 seats they need to control the House of Representatives. Trende’s reasoning? POTUS Trump’s job approval is high enough, Obama Dimocrats have enthusiasm but not much higher party identification, blue wave signifiers simply don’t exist, too many House seats are too close to call, red districts still have a lot of red in them, and in the end a slight breeze could move many House races. We’ll add that rain in the right districts could be the determining factor.
All the lies from Big Media are undermined as we approach election day. Remember Beto O’Rourke and how he raised $70 million and was on the road to an unprecedented big victory in Texas. On Sunday before the elections, Politico which has been a leader of the O’Rourke bullsh*t confessed:
In 2012, Cruz’s general election opponent, Paul Sadler, captured 41 percent of the vote despite having no name recognition and raising roughly $700,000 for the entire election. O’Rourke raised 54 times that amount in the third quarter alone. Yet if the polling holds up, O’Rourke stands to improve on Sadler’s showing by just 3 or 4 points.
Oh, Politico and Big Media. For the past fifteen months Big Media and especially Politico have declared sightings of a massive “blue wave”. But at the last moment the truth rears it’s head at these outlets so that they can later claim to have been fair news reporting outlets. Now Politico writes about Obama Dimocrats worried sick about the elections and “pre-midterm nightmares”. That massive “blue wave” sighted repeatedly and reported with poetry ends with a ripple:
Final polls point to narrow House majority for Democrats [snip]
That was confirmed by CBS News’ “Battleground Tracker†— a data-based model that, as of Sunday, showed Democrats leading Republicans, 225 House seats to 210 seats, but with a majority-flipping margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats.
So Politico and CBS go from a Tsunami blue wave to maybe a ripple to a “majority-flipping margin of error”.
CNN? CNN who likewise cited blue waves hitting shore is more wavy on election results as election day is nigh:
“It’s completely on the edge,†Zeleny said, adding that many people are surprised with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) recent confidence that Democrats would retake the House.
“I look at places in the middle of the country in those new Trump states. Look at Iowa, look at Michigan, look at Wisconsin. A couple races I’ll be watching on Tuesday are the Iowa races,†Zeleny said. “If Democrats win both of those, it seems very difficult for Republicans to hold the majority.â€
“But you know the idea of a blue wave, stop thinking about that. I don’t think it’s going to happen,†Zeleny added.
Then there is Nate Silver, the Obama Dimocrat who is worshiped by leftists because he tells them what they want to hear using numbers that don’t add up in the world of humans. Nate Silver repeatedly has forecast an 88% likelihood of an Obama Dimocrat takeover of the House of Representatives. Or maybe not:
Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: ‘Both extremely possible’
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democratic or Republican hands in Tuesday’s election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.
“So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning,” Silver told ABC’s “This Week.”
However, he noted that “polls aren’t always right.”
“The range of outcomes in the House is really wide,” he explained. “Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53.”
“Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House,” he said.”
“But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats,” Silver added. “Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”
The midterms are just two days away and most prognosticators predict that the Democrats will flip the House and Republicans will hold out in the Senate.
However, most also predicted that President Trump would lose in the 2016 elections to Hillary Clinton. The morning of election day two years ago, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 71 percent chance of becoming president.
What to expect on election day? Look up to the sky, not to the polls. If it rains, as is expected, Obama Dimocrats will be hurt. If it rains in the swing districts the GOP margins of victory will be higher. Expect TRUMPNADOs:
Forecast: Severe storms could be ongoing Tuesday morning in western portions of the red area depicted on the map below. Strong to severe storms could then spread to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast through the day while gradually weakening over time.
– Threats: Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible, as well as locally heavy rainfall.
Looks like the weather will cooperate and help the Trump GOP.
It’s not just the weather. President Trump has helped enormously. All the rallies have helped. Combined with the atrocities of Obama Dimocrats against Judge Kavanaugh and the invasion Caravans which President Trump mentions at every rally, Trump Republicans are poised to win.
So what do we expect?
In the state elections, the GOP will pull back a bit from the high water mark in 33 governorships. But there, again, some surprises might be in store. Possible GOP victories in Connecticut, California, Oregon are unlikely but with a little rain the planted seeds might sprout. Prediction: the GOP will continue to hold a majority of state governorships. Big worry for the GOP should be Ohio due to a lackluster candidate who still manages a tie race. Florida, Wisconsin, and Georgia are likewise very close but in all these races we expect “stay the course” to prevail.
In the House of Representatives a weathervane is a better indicator of success than the polls. Last week during our preliminary analysis we arrived at a GOP hold of the House with 218. Yup, exactly 218, the number needed to maintain control. This week we feel a bit better about these races but not by much. Prediction: GOP losses but maintain control with 220 votes. A bit of rain in the right places might even raise those prospects and wash away the flood of Obama Dimocrat money that threatened to drown lots of Republicans.
In the Senate it is conventional wisdom that the GOP will maintain control. This matters because President Trump will be able to continue to shape the third branch of government from district courts to the Supreme Court. Prediction: We expect the GOP to maintain control of the Senate with the results to be closer to 60 than to 50. We will lament if James loses in Michigan due to the weak GOP governor’s reelection efforts and if Obama Dimocrats maintain control of the Ohio senate seat due to the quisling John Kasich’s anti-Trumpism sabotage of the Ohio GOP.
All in all, a good day for high energy and great President Donald J. Trump who continues to Mega MAGA.
One final reminder: No analysis is worth a damn if you don’t vote. So vote.
