Update II: Hardest hit by tonight? Al Franken. His hopes to stay in the senate after a Judge Roy Moore victory just went up in smoke.
Update: Like Jerry Lee Lewis decades ago Judge Roy Moore discovered on election night that sex scandals can kill a career. Judge Roy Moore lost the election in Alabama to an Obama Dimocrat.
The Obama Dimocrat did not “win” but rather Judge Roy Moore lost. Perhaps it was not campaigning for the past few weeks. Perhaps.
The big question however will be how much of the blame for this lost senate seat will be attributed to Steve Bannon and his fight against the GOP establishment. Steve Bannon can make the case that Judge Roy Moore lost because the GOP establishment abandoned Moore and engineered this defeat. In addition the GOP establishment solicited votes for write in candidates which on election night were sufficient (22,000) to deny Judge Roy Moore a win. It can be safely assumed that the battle between the GOP establishment and the anti-establishment GOP will continue.
As to the default “winner” Doug Jones, he has a tough future ahead. He won’t be certified as a senator until December 26 at the earliest after all the provisional votes are counted. Perhaps he will have to wait until January. If the vote which is still very close remains this close (49.5-48.8 with 99% of the vote in) don’t discount a recount. Alabama law requires a recount if the vote is less than 0.5%. Once all the votes are in just after Christmas Day, we might be in for a recount. Then in 2020 Doug Jones will face the voters of Alabama again with an Obama Dimocrat record of votes.
Did you know 27 year old Sonny “married” 16 year old Cher?
Did you know the hottest star in 1957 married his 13 year old cousin when he was 23 to the shock of many?
Did you know 24 year old Elvis met Priscilla and dated her when she was 14?
Did you know 74 year old Mick Jagger is currently dating a 22 year old woman and they’re “having a lot of fun” together?
Did you know one of our favorite songs, sung by Mick Jagger, chronicles the sexual exploits of a 15 year old girl (“I can see that you’re fifteen years old… No I don’t want your I.D.”).
Did you know French President Macron met his wife when he was 15 and she was his 39 year old high school teacher?
Do you know there is an election in Alabama today for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions?
In a political world so devoted to hypocrisy it is easy to note the hypocrisies on top of hypocrisies we all engage in. Today it is the left engaged in the hypocrisy of sexual purity and the right engaged in the excuses of relativism. To vote based on these hypocrisies is the most hypocritical stance of all. The best vote is to vote for someone who will represent your policy choices not your ideal morality. As we always say, we hire plumbers and carpenters who do their jobs well and are recommended by those who previously hired them, not because of their personal moral lives.
Young Ted Kennedy killed a young woman in his car then later in life molested waitresses by turning them into the center of a sandwich consisting of himself and Senator Chris Dodd. Ted is dead but Chris Dodd still has a well paid job in the motion picture business. How come with all the Harvey Weinstein type revelations and the sexual abuses in the motion picture business no one in Big Media demands an investigation into the behaviors of Chris Dodd?
The known sins of Chris Dodd are in the past but now we are told that an Obama Dimocrat should win the Senate seat from Alabama because of allegations made against the Republican candidate, Judge Roy Moore, for his alleged sins from more than 30 years ago. The alleged sins include allegations by a woman that when in his early 30s Roy Moore dated young girls/women in their early and late teens.
The son of the woman thinks she is lying as does her boyfriend of the time. The lead waitress in the restaurant in which this woman worked at the time even questions whether the woman even worked in the restaurant in which the alleged acts took place. To add to the problems with the allegations,the only evidence (a yearbook signed by Roy Moore) was indisputably tampered with by the woman who makes the allegations and the portions she denies tampering with have been questioned as well. Yet the citizens of Alabama are supposed to listen to the allegations only and elect someone who will not represent either them nor their preferred policies.
It’s a big election in Sweet Home Alabama because “If Democrats can’t beat Roy Moore, it’s nearly impossible for them to win back the Senate next year—regardless of who they recruit.”
It’s a big election in Alabama because the Republican control of the U.S. Senate is so slim (52-48) that a loss in Alabama along with the death of another senator could put Republican control in jeopardy before next year’s Republican big wins. Because of the many Obama Dimocrat senators up for reelection in red states in 2018 the likelihood of big GOP wins next year are assured. But a loss in Alabama could delay the MAGA agenda or kill it entirely for all of 2018.
Other than the ramifications of the vote on the MAGA agenda, there is not much other significance to the election today. Alabama is a deep red state and will remain a deep red state. Any loss today by the GOP will be remedied at the next election cycle in which the seat is up.
The only ramification from today of any significance is that a loss by Judge Roy Moore will hurt Steve Bannon and his war against the Republican establishment. Steve Bannon will still have to contend with allegations by the GOP establishment that his “winner” imperiled a sure win into a less easy win.
So who will win today?
Both sides have made some smart and dumb decisions. Judge Roy Moore was dumb to disappear for several weeks only to make sporadic appearances before friendly audiences. This decision was made because Obama Dimocrats wanted to heckle Moore at every appearance. The GOP was dumb to cut off funding to Roy Moore. This decision was because the GOP leadership wanted to force Moore out of the race and this was the best way to do so. Meanwhile one secretive Obama Dimocrat group spent four million dollars against Moore.
Obama Dimocrat Doug Jones made some very dumb decisions too. The dumbest was to be so very pro-abortion then to deny he was so very pro-abortion. It made him seem very shady as to positions and this helped Roy Moore to denounce him on policy. The dumbest decision by Doug Jones was to accept robocalls from Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Barack Obama is the kiss of death even in places like Massachusetts and even more so in places like Alabama.
Smart decisions? The smartest decision by Doug Jones was to attempt to attack Judge Roy Moore on a personal basis. Judge Roy Moore best represents Alabama on policy so Doug Jones attacking him personally was a smart choice. Doug Jones was also smart to not allow kiss of death Barack Obama to go to Alabama to campaign in person. Doug Jones might be able to survive kiss of death Barack Obama only making phone calls, but Doug Jones could not survive Alabama voters subjected to Barack Obama showing his big ears and stupid face.
Republican Judge Roy Moore made many smart decisions. The smartest was to refuse from the start to even consider resigning. It was too late anyway to change the ballots. Also smart was how Judge Roy Moore noted that the moment the allegations against him were made Senator John McCain and Senator Mitch McConnell immediately jumped to demand Judge Roy Moore resign. Both of these senators are hated in Alabama so Judge Roy Moore was smart to denounce them especially since these senators did not make the same demand of Obama Dimocrat Senator Al Franken when he was caught in photographs assaulting a woman.
Judge Roy Moore was also smart to mock Gloria Allred and her press conference with the alleged victim with the yearbook. Judge Roy Moore was also smart to deny his signature in said yearbook as well as to demand handwriting and ink analysis of the alleged evidence. When late in the election the alleged victim admitted to alterations in her yearbook “evidence” her case collapsed.
Judge Roy Moore’s super smart decision to stick with President Donald J. Trump also helped him enormously. Eventually President Trump came back to endorse Judge Roy Moore. Almost immediately the GOP began to provide needed funds for the last week of the election.
So who the Hell wins?
The polls in any special election are usually wrong because it is hard to determine who is a likely voter. The polls in this special election with all the caveats of special elections and the circumstances in this particular election have led to a polling stalemate of clownish proportions. Newsweek has a quick overview of the polls:
Fox News, for example, reveals a 10-point advantage for Jones, whereas CBS News/YouGov indicates that Moore is beating the Democrat by six points. On average, Moore leads the polls by 48.1 percent, compared with 45.9 percent for Jones—just a 2.2-point lead for the Republican.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver warns about how results should be interpreted, underscoring that a majority of polls have used “automated scripts” to measure voters’ preferences in Alabama. These surveys, also known as “robopolls,” show Jones trailing Moore, but they make “more assumptions when modeling turnout,” have fewer response rates and run into problems with voters who might be shy or embarrassed to disclose their true preference. By law, robopolls can’t call voters via cellphones, Silver notes.
The polls which canvass a lot of people (this is good) have problems in who they think will be a likely voter (this is bad). The polls which we think are better in this instance are robocalls. We believe that in automated voice polls people respond more honestly if they are for Judge Roy Moore because they don’t have to fear “judgement” from a live caller. However, these polls have generally questioned too few people so we are not happy with them either. Most of the polls we have seen, if not all, have problems with them. Fox News on election eve produced a poll with Judge Roy Moore ten points behind and on the same night the opposite was also produced by a rival poll:
Fox News put its credibility on the line when it released a new poll on Monday that shows liberal Democrat Doug Jones leads conservative Republican Roy Moore by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, in tomorrow’s special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama.
The contrast between the results reported by Fox News and every other recent major poll could not be sharper.
Earlier on Monday, an Emerson Poll was released that shows Moore up by nine points, 53 percent to 44 percent.
The five other most recent polls featured in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls all show Moore in the lead.
Anyone who wants to be bored can read the link to the article which details the mess the polls are in.
The bottom line for leftists in this election is to pump up the black vote. The argument from the left is that if black voters overwhelm the polls the Obama Dimocrat will win. Will this happen? We don’t know because we are not in Alabama and this is the type of situation in which honest reportage would help to understand what the citizens of Alabama are seeing and reading and thinking. But because Big Media is so corrupt, because the political establishment is so corrupt, we can only guess with the evidence of the wind blowing on a wet finger.
Our wise wet finger tells us Judge Roy Moore will win. First because Alabama is a deep red state. Second because all the sex scandals (Franken and Conyers are only two of many) in the congress and in leftist institutions (where is Chris Dodd again?) helped Judge Roy Moore make his case that he was being forced out even as confessed abusers are still in the Senate (will Al Franken really ever leave?). Third, the terrorist attack in New York City and the chain migration issue will awaken Alabama citizens to the importance of the GOP control of congress. Fourth, the Supreme Court and the need to make sure that President Trump can get his nominees in the Judiciary appointed ASAP to MAGA. Fifth, Americans, especially those in Alabama, hate Big Media and will use every opportunity to defy Big Media.