Summer of Trump III was a replay of Summer of Trump II and Summer of Trump I. Remember? Summer of Trump I and II began with predictions of “it’s over for Trump” and Big Media chortled that no one could even survive the no good/bad/horrible death dealing circumstances. Then Trump triumphed.
We remember it all very well. Our analyses of Summer of Trump I, II, and III were all the same. We looked at the Big Media narrative, then we looked at reality, we predicted the Trump triumphs.
During Summer of Trump I , on September 8, 2015 we described reality as we saw it and while Big Media declared “it’s over for Trump”:
If the GOP establishment does not blow up Donald J. Trump before the Second GOP debate on September 16, it might well be over and Mr. Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. The hostile takeover will be complete.
Are we premature? Is it too early to declare the very real, very authentic Donald J. Trump the winner before one vote has been cast? The latest polls convince us that it is not too early but rather too late to stop Trump.
In December of 2015 we played endless summer music to celebrate the first Summer of Trump.
In July 2016, Summer of Trump II, during the GOP convention that nominated Trump we wrote:
Today, like every Summer of Trump day, will not be any different. Donald J. Trump will be wearing board shorts, hair slicked back, Ray Ban Wayfarer sunglasses halfway down his nose, Hawaiian shirt open to his navel, flip-flops on – his feet firmly planted on a surfboard riding the zeitgeist wave. [snip]
Surf on zeitgeist wave surfer dude, surf on! Make America Safe Again after the past year and the past few weeks is zeitgeist ocean Yoda beach party dude. The zeitgeist wave is building for Trump
Earlier this Summer of Trump III we wrote:
Obama Dimocrats did not count on President Trump trumping. Obama Dimocrats thought that President Trump would avoid mention of the GA6 race because President Trump would never want to get involved in a race that had everything against him. Obama Dimocrats had tens of millions, a young male candidate to attack a not so young woman, enthusiasm from the Obama Dimocrat left as well as the Bernie Sanders Socialist left, and Big Media and the rest of the party were all in to defeat the hapless Karen Handel who barely came in first in the crowded GOP primary.
Then, Trump tweeted and triumphed.
Once Again, against the polls, Big Media, the GOP establishment, the Deep State, the Obama Dimocrat big dollar donors, leftist thugs, assassins, pajama boys, NeverTrumpers, and everyone who did not vote for candidate Trump in November 2016 – Trump triumphed.
Lessons? This election was essentially meaningless. The goal was to separate the GOP leadership, RINOs and WHINOs from President Trump and that has once again failed because Trump voters love to Trump! Trump! Trump! The only lasting lesson from this election we can think of is one we wrote about years ago. [snip]
If Trump voters stick with President Trump then the GOP leadership has to stick with President Trump and the 2016 elections are a rerun. Obama Dimocrats can’t get the voters they disparage daily.
We’ve been correct in our analysis because we look at reality, not Big Media’s version of their delusions.
This Summer of Trump III once again we heard “it’s over for Trump”. Swine GOP establishment types like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell stabbed President Donald J. Trump in the back repeatedly as did some of President Trump’s cabinet members. Yet again, Big Media chortled, “it’s over for Trump” this time for real, really.
So what really happened in Summer of Trump III? Did the Charlottesville nonsense hurt President Trump? Did Hurricane Harvey knock out the Trumpnado? Did North Korea nuke President Trump? Did the GOP establishment depose President Trump? Did the Obama Dimocrats come one step closer to a glorious win in 2018 then 2020? Did the eclipse blot out President Trump? HA!
We’ll present the news Big Media is terrified to discuss. Remember as we discuss reality, that Summer of Trump III was supposed to be the death of President Trump because he could not survive the treachery of the GOP establishment and because everyday Republicans and Republican elected officials would run away from President Trump in fear of massive election losses in 2018 as voters turned against President Trump. Also remember our predictions in May of this year of big GOP victories in 2018 and the big reelection victory of President Trump in 2020.
Let’s start with the Obama Dimocrats. These kooks and klowns should be doing great if the narrative that President Trump is in any trouble whatsoever is in any way accurate. How are the Obama Dimocrats doing?
That bloated sack of feces from Canada, Michael Moore agrees with us that “Trump is on track to win again in 2020“. So much for “it’s over for Trump.”
Money? Citing the transgender order, Mitch McConnell’s attacks, “Trump’s crashing popularity”, and other absurdities, Big Media cannot understand why the Republicans are flush with cash from low dollar donors and the Obama Dimocrats can’t buy a shoelace with their failed fundraising efforts.
It’s not just us. The Vatican of Obama Dimocrats, the Big Pink hating 538 blog has predictions of what will happen in 2018. That Obama Dimocrat website revered by the leftist kooks predicts that the best Obama Dimocrats can hope for in 2018 is, well, read it and cry tears of laughter:
A new analysis, published by FiveThirtyEight, shows the congressional map for the 2018 midterm elections has a record-setting pro-GOP bias, which could mean more winning for President Donald Trump and his Republican party. [snip]
Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats.
So, under the best scenario, Obama Dimocrats can’t win the House of Representatives and the Republicans will be very close to 60 votes in the Senate, says 538 to the kooks.
The Cook Political Report, at the height of “it’s over for Trump” this Summer of Trump III likewise sees Obama Dimocrats in trouble, even Joe Manchin of West Virginia who has tried to pretend he is not an Obama Dimocrat even as he votes like an Obama Dimocrat.
Our prediction is the GOP maintains control of the House and the Senate GOP will have more than 60 seats. The Obama Dimocrats will have to defend 25 seats and the Republicans 8 seats, so even though midterm elections usually go badly for the party in power, we’ve never had a midterm with trump, Trump, trump. Add to all this goat’s head soup the fact that many of the Obama Dimocrats will run in states that President Trump won while the Republicans will also run in states that President Trump won, and, well, reality is easy to predict for us.
But, but, but, what about Barack Obama? Won’t Barack Obama save the Obama Dimocrats from President Trump??? Um, no, says that well known Obama Dimocrat Howard Dean. Barack Obama, says Howard Dean, is the kiss of death:
It’s long been over for the flim-flam con man Barack Obama!!!
As to the GOP establishment and President Trump, the outcome of this fight bodes well for President Trump too. We previously wrote about #DitchMitch and the battles to come with the GOP establishment. It’s happening:
Trump Divorces the GOP Congress [snip]
This would explain Mr. Trump’s recent gibes at Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the Senate’s health-care failure. On Thursday he broadened the indictment to include blaming Mr. McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan, in advance, for trouble raising the federal debt ceiling when Congress returns in September.
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board writes that President Trump will be the one to suffer and that attacking the GOP establishment finks will prevent President Trump from fulfilling his agenda. But what is President Trump’s agenda? The GOP establishment wants the agenda to be tax cuts for corporations and not much else. The GOP establishment does not want to build the wall nor stop illegal immigration. The GOP establishment does not want what President Trump wants.
The Trump agenda the GOP establishment does not like is the one the Trump voters want. What is the Trump agenda? First, attack and destroy the America hating Big Media that believes they are the masters of the people. Second, attack and destroy the political establishment that has failed. That’s the real Trump agenda. Tax cuts and all the other “policy” proposals fall under the details of what to do once Big Media is destroyed and the political establishment has been overturned.
The GOP establishment must be destroyed and President Trump is the one to do it:
The Memo: Trump allies say he needs a GOP scalp
Republicans on Capitol Hill lament President Trump’s aggressive behavior toward them, but some people in the president’s orbit are urging him to up the ante even further.
They say that, far from making nice, Trump needs to instill fear so that lawmakers do not feel at liberty to thwart him.
“Most members of Congress are arrogant, and until a scalp is actually taken they are going to continue to be defiant,” longtime Trump friend Roger Stone told The Hill. “All he needs to do is punish one incumbent and I think you’d see a sea-change.”
“He is 100 percent correct to go after McCain, Flake, Murkowksi,” said Sam Nunberg, who worked as an aide to Trump’s 2016 campaign. [snip]
Steve Bannon, recently ousted as Trump’s chief strategist, does not appear to be in a compromising mood, however. He promised to keep up his own attacks on McConnell in an interview published by The Economist on Friday.
“I’m going to light him up,” Bannon said.
Trump himself seems in no particular mood to declare a truce.
“The only problem I have with Mitch McConnell is that, after hearing Repeal & Replace for 7 years, he failed! That should NEVER have happened!” the president wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
A New York Times story the previous day had reported that Trump and McConnell had not spoken to each other “in weeks” and that McConnell had “privately expressed uncertainty that Mr. Trump will be able to salvage his administration after a series of summer crises.” [snip]
And the president took aim at Corker, who had publicly called his “stability” and “competence” into question.
“Strange statement by Bob Corker considering that he is constantly asking me whether or not he should run again in ’18. Tennessee not happy!” Trump tweeted on Friday morning. [snip]
There are even some internal party critics of Trump’s, however, who don’t dismiss his words out of hand.
Appearing on Hugh Hewitt’s syndicated radio show on Thursday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said of Trump, “He’s running against Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham and others. The Congress is very unpopular, particularly with the Republican base, so there’s nothing unhinged about it. It’s a political strategy that I’m not so sure is smart, but it’s a very thought-out strategy. There’s nothing crazy about it.” [snip]
Stone argued that Trump is “far more popular and more influential with Republican primary voters than any members of Congress and any member of the United States Senate, and he has enormous leverage to go into party primaries.” [snip]
If those sentiments might be met with consternation on Capitol Hill, they are firmly endorsed by some among the conservative grassroots.
“Really, the Republican leadership in the House and the Senate needs to get behind President Trump and his agenda,” said Jenny Beth Martin, the president and co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots. “I think it is fair for him to shed light on what is really happening on Capitol Hill.
“The voters voted for Donald Trump to be a sledgehammer and a wrecking ball to Washington, D.C.,” she added.
Kick the tires and light the fires! Summer of Trump is not over.
Paul Ryan has done nothing to help President Trump. Every time Paul Ryan sees an opportunity to attack President Trump he does so. John McCain, like Paul Ryan also delights in attacks against President Trump as they both did after President Trump wisely pardoned Joe Arpaio.
How wonderful to hear then, after the attacks on the Arpaio pardon that Joe Arpaio might repay the favor and run against GOP establishment stooge Jeff Flake. Flake and the NeverTrump kooks are in trouble:
Flake’s in big trouble — The Arizona GOP Senate primary is still about a year away. But the prospect that Sen. Jeff Flake won’t make it out of the GOP primary is looking very real. Two polls conducted since Trump ripped into Flake on Twitter have Flake trailing Kelli Ward by double digits. Flake hasn’t led in a single primary poll taken at any point since last November.
Maybe Heller is too — Republican Sen. Dean Heller could also be in trouble. JMC Analytics released a poll this week of the Nevada GOP Senate primary. It found Heller (who’s had a lukewarm relationship with Trump) losing to Danny Tarkanian (a perennial Republican candidate and big-time Trump backer) 39 percent to 31 percent. Heller answered this survey by releasing his own internal poll showing him up 55 percent to 33 percent. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
The Hill has some wet fingers feeling the winds of 2018:
The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, including just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016. [snip]
Here are the seven most vulnerable Senate seats of the 2018 midterm elections as they stand now.
Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) [snip]
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
McCaskill is one of the few statewide Democratic officeholders left in Missouri, which Trump won by 19 points in November. [snip]
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Donnelly leveraged a bipartisan approach to politics and his blue-collar appeal into a Senate seat in 2012, but he’ll have to fight yet another tough battle if he wants to keep his Senate seat in a state Trump won by 19 points. [snip]
Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.)
Flake wouldn’t rank this high in a normal election year, but a Republican president threatening to support a primary challenge to an incumbent GOP senator isn’t normal, either. [snip]
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
In 2016, West Virginia went for Trump by a larger margin than any other state – 42 points. [snip]
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.)
Heitkamp hails from another deep-red state – North Dakota went for Trump by about 36 points. [snip]
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)
Republicans have a lot to like about their Montana prospects. Trump won the state by more than 20 points in November, and Republican Greg Gianforte just won the state’s at-large congressional seat in a special election even after he assaulted a reporter. [snip]
There are five other Democrats running in states Trump won – Sens. Bill Nelson (Fla.), Bob Casey Jr. (Pa.), Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio). These five do not yet seem as vulnerable as the others, but the races could move up the rankings depending on how primaries shake out.
Florida Republicans are in a holding pattern as Gov. Rick Scott (R) weighs a bid, since his entry would immediately clear the field and give Nelson a top-tier challenger. Casey and Baldwin are waiting to see how the large GOP primary fields taking them on shake out.
Musician Kid Rock is mulling a bid against Stabenow. And Brown could face a rematch against his 2012 opponent, state treasurer Josh Mandel, but some state Republicans aren’t excited about his campaign and are looking for other options.
President Donald J. Trump will be a powerful, if not determinative voice, in these primary and general elections. It won’t be the GOP that will win in 2018. President Donald J. Trump will win in 2018 and 2020.
Summer of Trump never ends.