The left is disgusting, but the right ain’t too bright. On March 2, we wrote Conservative Treehouse doesn’t make sense:
Some on the right foolishly and mistakenly believe the madness will break during the Supreme Court confirmation fight for soon-to-be Justice Gorsuch. Some on the right, not understanding Obama Dimocrats, foolishly don’t understand the political battle as they concoct wild theories about why the filibuster won’t be deployed against soon-to-be Justice Gorsuch. These are dangerous delusions. The left is not even near full madness.
Conservative Treehouse dreamed up some silly scenario, so bizarre that you can read and reread it and it still can’t be understood, not even by the initial commentors, about why Neil Gorsuch was a shoe-in and no filibuster would be deployed by Chuck Schumer. The “rationale” for such a bizarre conclusion was too silly to even explain in any reality-based way. The Conservative Treehouse “analysis”: “Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will not filibuster the nomination. Relax, it’s 100%. 100%. Done.”
That Treehouse analysis is nutty as a squirrel’s sac. It did not get any better after Chuck Schumer confirmed that indeed, as we predicted, there will be a filibuster. After delusional theory #1 exploded, the Treehouse churned up some more nutty butter to spread which made as little sense as their first flub. It was something about Russians and… well… this latest theory was again too silly to give serious consideration to.
Let’s explain political reality, as seen by Obama Dimocrats, to Conservative Treehouse so they can begin to add some bit of obvious to the discussion.
First, Conservative Treehouse and the not-too-bright right, think that it is the next Supreme Court confirmation battle or the one after that (when presumably a left wing Justice leaves the high court) that matters and that Gorsuch’s seat on the high court is somewhat of an afterthought. This is supremely stupid.
In all caps: GORSUCH IS THE BATTLE THAT MUST BE WON! It is not the next confirmation, nor the one after that that matters. Chuck Schumer understands that Neil Gorsuch must be defeated because Gorsuch’s confirmation will be a devastating blow to the left from which the left will not recover for generations. Neil Gorsuch returns the court to a conservative majority. That majority might not be the perfect conservative majority of the ideologically right wing – but Neil Gorsuch will return a 5-4 majority to the Supreme Court. THAT IS THE BATTLE. THAT IS EVERYTHING.
After the GOP ObamaCare repeal and replace defeat, Chuck Schumer knows that one more big defeat for President Trump and the Republicans will mean the GOP is neutered and the 2018 elections become a real contest with likely Obama Dimocrat victories unimaginable until now. The consequences of a Neil Gorsuch defeat means that President Trump would have to name a new nominee to the Supreme Court who would have to be a centrist (and still not be confirmed) and more time would be burned up and less and less could be accomplished by President Trump.
Chuck Schumer is doing what any brilliant General knows to do when your forces are weak and outmatched by the opposition: stall for time. In time, the stronger forces grow weaker and the weaker forces grow stronger.
Now, some on the not-too-bright-right will respond that “no, the big battle will be the one to replace the dead Justice Ginsberg.” Um, stupid. If Justice Ginsberg dies (or resigns) while Trump is president, President Trump does not really have to do anything. The Supreme Court would go from a 5-4 conservative majority to a 5-3 conservative majority on the court via subtraction. A one vote majority would become a two vote majority automatically. Of course, President Trump would make a nomination and then the majority would become a 6-3 majority. But 5-3 or 6-3 the left can add single digits. The Obama Dimocrats like Chuck Schumer understand all this. The left knows Neil Gorsuch is THE battle even if the right is not too bright. Conservative Treehouse and the not-too-bright-right hallucinated themselves into a dream that Gorsuch is not the most important battle for the left.
In addition, the left will frequently circumvent the political process by going to the courts to gain in the judicial arena what they lost in the political arena. That’s why Barack Obama and Harry Reid destroyed the judicial filibuster to get Obama nominees to the district and appellate courts confirmed.
For the left, Gorsuch is everything. For the left all the gains at the district and appellate level will be eliminated if the high court regains a conservative majority. The left is correct, the right is wrong, in this analysis.
Chuck Schumer also understands that 2018 will be a very difficult election for Obama Dimocrats because so many Dimocrats are running and many of those will fight for reelection in red states that Donald J. Trump won with wide margins; while few Republicans are up for reelection at all and most of those are in red states. Chuck Schumer also understands that the dimwits on the left, unlike the right, rarely vote in off year elections.
Chuck Schumer and the left further understand that their hope in 2018 and 2020 is to run a “base” election. To run a “base” election the base has to be happy. The DailyKooks left base will not be happy if Schumer does not filibuster Gorsuch.
Once again, for the left the Gorsuch confirmation battle is the battle of all battles. They know there is no “next”.
The left also understands the weakness on the right. There are several GOP senators that are in many ways closer to the left than they are to the right. Senators Murkowski, Collins, Graham, and McCain, are always ready to join a “gang” of eight or four to block victory and grasp defeat. For these four senators what matters is the traditions of the senate and collegiality but most of all flattery from Big Media. They also don’t want to see the filibuster destroyed because that would make the senate too much like the low rent House.
Some senators also know that “what goes around comes around”. Get rid of the minority friendly judicial filibuster now, and when the majority becomes the minority they will have lost a last resort weapon.
Because the GOP only has 52 votes out of 100 in the senate Senators Murkowski, Collins, Graham, and McCain can sorta filibuster the death of the filibuster. Yes, these four can kill the kill-the-filibuster crew. That the confirmation filibuster will be killed by the Obama Dimocrats the moment they seize power and it becomes advantageous to do so does not mean much to these four.
Or… maybe not? There is some good and unexpected news on this judicial confirmation filibuster fight:
Eliminating the filibuster would break Senate precedent and make it impossible for Democrats to hold the nominee to a 60-vote threshold, allowing Republicans to approve Gorsuch with a simple majority.
Graham told conservative radio show host Mike Gallagher that he would vote for the nuclear option if necessary.
“Whatever it takes to get him on the court, I will do,” Graham said, after being asked about using the nuclear option.
“If my Democratic colleagues choose to filibuster this guy, then they will be telling me that they don’t accept the election results — 306 electoral votes — that they’re trying to delegitimize President Trump,” Graham continued. “And that’s not right, and we would have to change the rules to have the Supreme Court like everybody else.” [snip]
“I hope that we can get 60 votes and not change 200-plus years of history, but I will do whatever’s necessary, but I’ve been a pretty balanced guy and enough is enough,” Graham said.
If Graham won’t crumble, will McCain? Good news there too:
In a closely divided Senate (Republicans hold a 52-48 majority), it would only take three Republicans to let Schumer have his way, but comments from several Senate Republicans suggest they’re not going to give in to Democratic demands.
Arizona senator John McCain hinted Thursday afternoon that he’s ready to confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch with a simple majority if Senate Democrats take the unprecedented step of filibustering a Supreme Court nominee. Asked what Republicans should do if 41 or more Democrats try to block Gorsuch, McCain told THE WEEKLY STANDARD: “I think we’ll address it when it happens. None of us want to do it, but we’re going to confirm Gorsuch.” [snip]
Arizona’s Jeff Flake told TWS: “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, but I think we’ll get him confirmed.”
“There’s no reason for anybody to filibuster,” said Lisa Murkowski, a moderate from Alaska. “Gorsuch is a good guy.”
You can’t take anything for granted with that crew but at least for now they are making the right noises. Not that Chuck Schumer believes them. Chuck Schumer is playing for time and he knows how to play these Big Media compliant senators. Chuck Schumer thinks he will get himself a traitor or two and win the big battle:
Schumer confident Democrats have votes to block Gorsuch
The Senate minority leader is prepared to force Mitch McConnell to try to invoke the ‘nuclear option.’
Chuck Schumer is prepared to push the Senate into a nuclear confrontation over the Supreme Court. [snip]
Dismissing the notion of a deal to confirm Gorsuch floated by some members of his caucus this week, Schumer all but declared that Donald Trump’s nominee will not receive the requisite eight Democratic votes — and that it will be up to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as to whether to try to blow up the filibuster to get Gorsuch through. [snip]
If Schumer stops Gorsuch during a filibuster vote in early April — and the New Yorker was brimming with confidence that he will — it will almost certainly force McConnell’s hand on the so-called nuclear option. Schumer is betting McConnell does not have the votes to do away with the 60-vote requirement for Supreme Court nominees.
“I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Mitch McConnell changes the rules,” Schumer said. “There are people in his caucus who really don’t want to change the rules, OK?”
This is not about “payback” for Merrick Garland. The wilted Garland confirmation that never was excuse is a way for Obama Dimocrats and Big Media to justify the filibuster to the public. The right wing delusionalists do not get it but the leftists understand that Gorsuch is the big battle:
Liberal activists warn party’s lawmakers: Primaries are coming [snip]
Frustrated by the party’s performance on Capitol Hill and emboldened by the mass protests against President Donald Trump, a coalition of progressive groups say they are open to supporting primary challengers next year against Democratic members of the House and Senate – even if many inside the party believe that intra-party races might ultimately only help the Republican Party gain more power. [snip]
“Every single Democratic incumbent considering aiding and abetting the Trump administration needs to consider their jobs at high risk,” said Charles Chamberlain, executive director of Democracy for America, a grassroots progressive advocacy group based in Vermont. [snip]
“The base is more than restless – it’s furious,” said Ben Wikler, Washington director for MoveOn.org, a longtime and well-known liberal advocacy group. “It’s up to each and every elected Democrat: If they want to be part of the resistance, they’ll have an army by their side.
“And if they don’t, they’ll have to face the biggest grassroots movement that I’ve seen in my life,” he added.
The threats are representative of a rift within the Democratic Party over its midterm election strategy, between its more moderate establishment and an emboldened liberal faction. Many members of the party establishment think its lawmakers, especially those who represent states of districts won by Trump last year, must win over Republican voters by finding times to cooperate with the president.
Adding to the tension is that 10 Senate Democrats are running for re-election next year in states Trump won during last year’s presidential campaign. Five of the states were also won by former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012. [snip]
Anything short of an all-out effort from Democrats to stop the judge, including forcing Senate Republicans to lower the existing 60-vote threshold for confirmation of Supreme Court justices, will incite the base, they say.
The not-too-bright right must understand the mentality of the left and not succumb to nuts-falling-from-the-tree theories. For the left, Gorsuch is THE battle. And the left is correct. Gorsuch is THE battle! Gorsuch means 5-4 for generations (or 6-3, or 7-2). For Obama Dimocrats up for reelection in 2018 the crossfire of left and right attacks will be most bloody. Everyway you look at it they lose.
So why is this a “Glory, Glory, Hallelujah” moment? For four reasons.
Reason #1: A Gorsuch confirmation victory on April 3 (when the Judiciary Committee votes) and on April 8 (or before, when the entire U.S. Senate votes) will wipe away the defeat on the ObamaCare battle for the GOP. Glory, Glory, Hallelujah!
Reason #2: A Gorsuch confirmation victory means more victories as the 5-4 majority will be restored. On President Trump’s immigration policies these will be especially important victories as they will on those ObamaCare cases which will finish off ObamaCare, all thus far stifled by the current 4-4 split on the high court. Glory, Glory, Hallelujah!
Reason #3: A Gorsuch confirmation victory means that as we have long suggested and advocated, if you are going to get rid of the judicial confirmation filibuster do it as early as possible so that President Trump can effect his policies more easily for eight years. As we wrote previously, Barack Obama dumped the filibuster for the lower court confirmations very late in his term instead of early on when the boob could have done even more damage than he did. The GOP with President Trump should not make the same stupid mistake. If it is to be done, do it quickly and early – a philosophy we share with the Bard. Glory, Glory, Hallelujah!
Reason #4: This confirmation will make later confirmations faster, easier. There will be other confirmation battles if the Gorsuch battle goes well and Gorsuch gets on the high court before the late April arguments are heard and voted on. The end of the judicial filibuster means that President Trump will be free to appoint whom he wants without fear of the Obama Dimocrats.
Contrary to what the TreeHouse theorizes about, a Gorsuch victory will make it more likely that the high court majority will be strengthened. That nonsense about Justice Kennedy assumes so much it is laughable. The facts are that once Neil Gorsuch is Justice Gorsuch – due to the end of the filibuster, some of the older conservative Justices will feel free to resign and be replaced with younger versions of themselves that will continue the Trump Legacy for generations.
Forty-nine year old Gorsuch replacing Scalia will be followed by forty-something year old replacements for Thomas and Kennedy (a more consistently conservative version too). On the left our bet is that faced with a younger and stronger 5-4 majority and the futility of resistance, Justice Breyer will call it quits to be followed by Justice Ginsberg.
The left could try to thwart all this via cooperation with President Trump. Schumer could try to work out deals with President Trump and cajole and sweet talk the President into going a bit more center on nominations and policy.
But Schumer and the left won’t cooperate. They will filibuster. They will fight. And President Trump will fight back. That’s why we say, Glory, Glory, Hallelujah!