Update: Debate ended. Now the real debate begins. The spin room. As we all know from decades of debates, the event itself is a matter of perception. After the debate the shaping of the perceptions begins.
We were right in our pre-debate analysis that Hillary Clinton was not a “pushover” and that she would be very prepared and formidable. She baited Trump on personal issues such as inherited wealth.
Trump’s strongest moment and weakest moment were one and the same. It was the last thing he said. Trump declared that ‘Secretary Clinton does have experience but the wrong kind of experience.” It was his strongest attack as we said it would be – but it came at the end. At the very freaking end. Was that smart or dumb? Early on it could have helped shape the debate and been a Wagnerian leitmotif throughout this opera Trump could have returned to over and over and over again. Given at the end it is the easiest thing to remember. Whatever.
Trump’s attacks on “politicians” were his best parts. Hillary’s calculated personal attacks were her strongest moments. But it won’t matter once the spinning gets done. In 2000 Big Media declared Al Gore the winner of the debate but the public declared George W. Bush the winner. Donald J. Trump will soon be in the spin room shaping the perceptions of the debate.
Begun, the spin wars have.
We know everything that can be known about tonight’s first presidential debate of 2016. Who will “win” the debate? Is this debate just a bunch of hype for big, little, print, broadcast, and pixel media? What will Hillary do? What will Trump do? What is Trump’s killer issue and his most powerful argument? What is Hillary’s killer issue and her most powerful argument?
We also have some killer suggestions for Trump/Pence 2016 but we don’t know any one in the campaign to communicate our suggestions to. Hillary2016 already has our suggestions but refuses to accept them.
Who will win tonight’s debate? Donald Trump will win for two reasons we have repeated since 2013. Reason #1: This is a change election; the candidate of change wins; the third Obama term loses. Reason #2: The medium is the message.
This is a change election and that is why Donald J. Trump wins tonight’s debate and the election. Trump is the candidate of change. Hillary Clinton has imprisoned herself as the “Obama third term” both with her single-minded campaign focus on black voters, and her complete subservience and dependence on Barack Obama to win. Also Hillary’s severe leftist turn in a crazed belief the country wants to go severe left has been a strategic mistake without hope of victory. Back in 2013 we made that clear to Hillary2016 before there was a Hillary2016. Hillary Clinton did not listen and she will lose.
This #Hillary2016 dependence on Barack Obama and black voters has led to a trap for Hillary Clinton that benefits Donald J. Trump tonight. This provides Donald J. Trump his killer issue and his most powerful argument.
Donald J. Trump’s killer issue tonight and his most powerful argument for the election is one he made explicit only recently. Trump’s killer issue kills Hillary’s killer issue and most powerful argument.
Donald J. Trump’s killer argument: “Nothing will change if you vote for her.”
“Nothing will change if you vote for her.” This is the most powerful argument for Donald J. Trump and like a magnificent flower in full bloom it has many petals to display. This Trump argument destroys Hillary Clinton’s most powerful argument. Hillary Clinton’s most powerful argument will be that she is experienced and ready to lead for the change she proposes. But to every proposal Hillary Clinton makes for her type of change, for every detailed policy proposal Hillary makes tonight, Donald Trump will respond “Lester Holt, I would say to Secretary Clinton ‘If your idea is so good why haven’t you done it already? You’ve been in public office longer than Millennials have been alive. Why haven’t you done what you say you will do already? Also, if you’re idea is so good why hasn’t Barack Obama already done what you suggest? If you try to blame the usual ‘Republicans blocked Obama’ nonsense what makes you think you can do what Obama could not do? Are you saying you are better than Obama? Are you insulting black voters? You’ve had decades of experience doing the wrong thing and that is why most of the people say the country is on the ‘wrong track’. You have been in government for decades. You are responsible for many of the disasters this country faces today. Nothing will change if Americans vote for you. I am the candidate of real change for the better. I will Make America Great Again.”
If Donald J. Trump wants to win Millennials, this argument will do it. Millennials want change. Most of the country wants real change. Not phony HOPE and CHANGE for the worse – real change for the better. If Donald Trump wants to court black voters this divide and conquer strategy regarding Obama will work for him. And of course Donald Trump can spring his traps and call Hillary a “racist” as Obama did in 2008.
Change is Donald J. Trump’s most powerful argument tonight. Hillary Clinton’s most powerful argument tonight is her experience. Trump’s argument is the trump card.
None of this is to say that Hillary Clinton will be a pushover tonight. Hillary Clinton is a lawyer and she believes very much in study and preparation. Hillary will try to taunt Trump with comments about inherited wealth. Trump is prepared for these taunts and we doubt he will go nuclear and go after Hillary’s family too. Hillary Clinton will be prepared to the max after weeks of debate preparation and mock debates. In 2008 Hillary Clinton pulverized Barack Obama in every debate. But it was a change election in 2008 as it is a change election in 2016. In 2008 Barack Obama was so outclassed by Hillary the debate moderators – The Real Danger – had to come to Obama’s rescue and they themselves attacked Hillary Clinton.
Perhaps Lester Holt will try to come to Hillary Clinton’s rescue tonight. We doubt it. We doubt it because Donald J. Trump is not a pushover who will allow himself to be Candy Crowleyed without bold push back from Trump.
We believe this will be a battle for change against stay-the-course Obama Third Term. Feverish dreams that Hillary Clinton will collapse physically or cough herself out of a job are unknown’s but we are sure that medical professionals will prop up Hillary Clinton with drugs, like the dead El Cid, if there is anything really medically wrong with Hillary. This will be change versus stay-the-course debate.
One other expectation we have is that Trump will address his most critical comments of Hillary to Lester Holt. We expect Hillary to do the same but occasionally attack Trump directly (probably at the beginning of the debate) to goad him into direct conversation and attacks which will then make Trump vulnerable to the argument that he was “sexist” when he confronted Hillary directly.
Trump will win tonight’s debate because he is the change candidate. But there is another reason why Trump wins.
As in the primary campaign Donald J. Trump wins tonight’s debate the moment he steps onto the stage. The medium is the message. What we wrote to Trump during the primary campaign applies even more tonight:
Don’t you worry for one single moment about being “presidential.” The very fact that you will be on stage with governors and senators will send the message that you are “presidential.”
Idiots from the left like Matt Bai (and the right, like Jeb Bush), persist in their argument that Trump does not want to win. For Bai and other idiots who think they are so smart, the millions spent by Trump and the non-stop campaigning by Trump is evidence that Trump wants to lose. Amazing! Bai and other idiots like him cannot believe Trump is doing so well so they convince themselves Trump does not sincerely want to win. We’re not making this up.
Idiot Bai and others can have feverish dreams about a Trump collapse all they want. But Trump will trump tonight. Donald J. Trump will win tonight’s debate. All Donald J. Trump has to do is appear on that stage and American voters will no longer have to visualize Trump as president. American voters (other than leftist loons like Matt Bai) will see Trump tonight as a presidential candidate. Americans already saw President Trump when he went on his state visit to Mexico.
Things that won’t matter significantly? We will be forced to endure a not very important back and forth on Hillary emails, the Chelsea bombing, and the riots in Charlotte. BTW, are we the only ones who see a bad omen for Hillary in the prominence recently of Chelsea and Charlotte? The bombing and attempted bombing took place in Chelsea where Hillary’s daughter Chelsea lives, and Hillary’s granddaughter is called Charlotte? Too much entrails/omens watching on our part? Probably. These issues might be important but the big issue is change, change, change.
Another big issue is jobs, jobs, jobs. Hillary will tout her big plans and Trump, as we advised above, will dump all over them easily with a “why haven’t you done this already and if the idea is so good why won’t Obama do them now?”
On the economy Hillary will put forth grand proposals including the one about hiking the estate tax (death tax) on the rich. Trump has a great opportunity here to show off his real estate know how and excoriate Hillary for her hypocrisy as she has placed her residence in a trust which will immunize her, but not other Americans, from the 65% tax nonsense she spouts for the gullible.
On issues of war and peace Hillary will tout her experience. Donald J. Trump will respond with the “warmonger” charge (particularly on Libya and Iraq) that so helped Obama in 2008, and this will further endear Trump to Bernie Sanders’ supporters. Attempts by Hillary to fear-monger the public with charges that Trump wants to pull out of alliances such as NATO will be met with crisp rebuttals from Trump that what he is saying is common sense management to make our allies more responsible, not a desire to wreck the alliance system if it is working.
Will tonight’s debate matter? Ordinarily the clear answer is “no”. Few debates have really changed elections. This debate will perhaps change 1% of the vote. Not much but maybe enough in an election that is at the moment so very tight in the polls. While even Trump haters with long track records of being right about elections, predict Trump will win, the polls are tight at the moment.
The Bloomberg poll says both candidates have 46% support (Trump 43% to Hillary 41% when third party candidates are included). That’s a big drop for Hillary Clinton in the Bloomberg poll from her earlier heights. The “blue wall” is also crumbling in states Hillary expected to easily win such as Colorado (42% Trump, 41% Clinton) and Pennsylvania (45% Clinton, 44% Trump). CNN’s poll has a 1% margin of difference in both states. This is a total Hillary collapse. Nate Silver the pro-Obama shill who supposedly analyzes polling data and throughout this election has predicted an easy Hillary victory, now predicts a Trump victory as of today with 54.9% chance of victory.
Against all the ruling establishment, the political class, Donald J. Trump will win tonight’s debate and the election. It’s a change election. Nothing else matters. That’s all you need to know. It’s why Trump wins.