Hey, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, per Bob Dylan. Or how about the Godfather Michael Corleone? Or Butch Cassidy? Or Jigsaw Puzzle Rolling Stones shouting alongside the Queen, “What the hell is going on?”
The 2016 election is easy to describe and forecast, as long as you keep in mind the picture, not the individual pieces, of the jigsaw puzzle.
What is the big picture of the 2016 election? As we wrote so presciently so long ago, 2016 is a super-duper change election year. Further, one candidate markets himself as the CHANGE candidate and another candidate markets herself as the “stay the course” candidate. That’s the big picture. That’s the picture that in November all the puzzle pieces will fit to form.
2016 will not just be a run of the mill CHANGE election that usually occurs after eight years of a presidency. 2016 will be a super-duper oopper whooper-duper change election. A massive prairie fire with associated winds that will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls eventually to bring down entire institutions and the dwellings of the powerful.
Why? Why is 2016 such a big election for CHANGE year. Reason #1 is that Barack Obama destroyed the Democratic Party and its coalition of FDR/Kennedy/Clinton constituencies. Reason #2 is that once Obama destroyed the Democratic Party, Donald J. Trump came along and destroyed the Republican party and reconstituted it and its coalition as well:
Obama expelled the White Working Class and senior citizens from the Democratic Party in favor of his situation comedy demographics “coalition of the ascendant.” [snip]
The people Obama purged from his Obama Dimocrat Party found themselves politically homeless. Now Donald Trump either by design or sheer luck leads the politically homeless to the Republican Party and the old guard bears its teeth of brass and snarls.
The old guard of the Republican Party sees their grip on the party weakened even as the party grows in strength everywhere but at the presidential level. The Republican Party is strong locally and in states but nationally, before Trump, it was moribund.
Every day our analysis of this election year, which we began shortly before the last election cycle ended, is proven correct. Event after event confirms what we have written. For instance, AP catches up with all our analysis of the disaster which is Hillary Clinton 2016 abandoning her core supporters of 2008, the white working class:
Has Clinton Written Off Working-Class White Men?
From the multi-gender bathrooms to the initial speaker lineup Monday of Ivy League graduates to comedian Sarah Silverman referencing her therapist at the podium, the show at times had all the makings of a parody about an elitist party far too focused on identity politics and out of touch with the heartland. At one point there was applause at the mention of the word abortion, a staggering turn-around from the days when Bill Clinton insisted abortion should be safe, legal and rare.
It didn’t help that when asked by PBS, halfway through the convention, about Hillary Clinton’s trouble attracting white working-class males, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said: “I think so many times white, non-college-educated white males have voted Republican. They voted against their own economic interest because of guns, because of gays, and because of God.”
The drift away from rural America, from gun owners and pro-life voters who once found a home with Democrats in spite of some cultural differences, didn’t start with Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. But a fissure that began with a new coalition then-Sen. Barack Obama built to win election and then re-election, appears in a Trump vs. Clinton race to be nearing a complete separation. [snip]
For Clinton herself the reversal is stark. These voters once loved her husband. And in 2008 Hillary Clinton openly questioned Obama’s weak support among “hard-working Americans, white Americans,” insisting she had a “broader base” to win with. She pummeled Obama in the primary contests in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio and Kentucky with large rural populations by winning white men. It was in a defensive reference to these voters that Obama used a version of Pelosi’s “guns, gays, and God” riff to explain his failure to connect. It was thought at the time to be a gaffe. Now it’s apparently a strategy. Eight years later, many of these voters crossed over into the Republican primary to vote for Donald Trump.
Should we sue for plagiarism? It took A.B. Stoddard this long to rewrite the articles we wrote since 2007. Here’s some of what we wrote repeatedly many years ago:
For years we explained (see, “Mistake In ’08” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII, and Part VIII, and the “Barack Obama Situation Comedy” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV) that to build and grow a political party you first gather a core constituency then slowly grow the party by the addition of like-minded individuals and groups which share those interests of the core constituency. [snip]
In 2008, Barack Obama and assorted kooks decided to purposefully destroy the Democratic Party of FDR. Barack Obama and these kooks willfully embraced the idea of the new “coalition of the ascendant”. This “coalition of the ascendant” and their interests – which conflicted with the interests of the FDR coalition – made it necessary to kick out core Democratic Party constituencies such as senior citizens and the white working class.
That analysis does what good analysis should do. That analysis explains what is happening this year, except we did so years ago. In other words we looked at the picture, not the individual pieces of the jigsaw puzzle so we knew long ago how the little pieces would fit. Analysis should have predictive power if it reflects reality. Ours does, and A.B. Stoddard, years years years late, rewrites the obvious.
As to Hillary Clinton, we weep for her. Hillary has become the Shield Maiden for the Obama corruption we advised against:
There was a solution to this problem for the once party of FDR now the Obama Dimocrat Party. The solution was to get a leader that would lead the Obama Dimocrat Party back to the party of FDR. This leader should have denounced Barack Obama’s unitary executive diktat as an abuse against Constitutional order. This leader could have brought back the white working class into the Democratic Party fold. This leader would have denounced the fact that Despite highest poverty numbers in 50 years, Obama okays illegals to compete for jobs in US .
We weep for Hillary Clinton. Hillary is now a sad bird in a cage pretending it still has wings and able to fly anywhere. Unfortunately this trapped bird has to sing the song her masters dictate if she is to get her bird seed.
We weep for Hillary Clinton. At the same time we do understand those who strongly advocated for Hillary Clinton in 2008 and since, who are now totally disgusted and repulsed by her. It does not matter whether Hillary merits tears or a spit in the face. It does not matter whether Hillary is corrupt to the core or stupid to the bone. It doesn’t matter at this point, at this point what difference does it make? The end does not change. Consider Michael Corleone of the fictional Godfather.
In the book, later movie, The Godfather, Micheal Corleone is the son of a Mafia crime lord chieftain. Michael Corleone is a good son who joins the army after the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, even though his crime boss father is infuriated. Micheal Corleone, a college student taking no part of the family “business” (other than the benefits which come from the crime family business) is distant from the grime and crime surrounding him. Years later, after his father survives multiple gun shots, the heir to the throne is killed in a mob hit, and assorted other setbacks, Michael Corleone joins the family business.
Micheal Corleone joins the family crime empire and eventually becomes the new Godfather chieftain. You see, Michael has a dream, Michael Corleone has a plan. Michael Corleone’s plan? In five years, Michael says, the family business will all be “legit”. In five years no more prostitution, murder, gambling, extortion, blackmail, beatings, revenge, crime. In five years Michael Corleone plans to take the Corleone crime family, with all their riches, into the lawful world. The five years pass. There is no CHANGE.
Michael Corleone is an object lesson for Hillary Clinton. Let’s assume Hillary Clinton is a good person, patriotic, not at all corrupt, made some unintended mistakes. Let’s further assume that Hillary Clinton is lying about her support for Barack Obama and once in office, Hillary plans to uncloak from her disguise as the Obama Third Term and become a working class hero reversing Barack Obama’s policies in toto. Hillary the liar is the best defense for Hillary Clinton we can think of. But “vote for the liar” is not a persuasive argument. Further, as Michael Corleone’s saga teaches, the notion that a crime family can go legit is a ludicrous notion.
Obama Third Term Hillary Clinton will not be able to go “legit” just as Micheal Corleone’s plans never panned out.
Hillary Clinton runs for president as the Obama Third Term. Like Michael she can delude herself that she can get the Obama Dimocratic Party to go “legit” but it is too late now. We long ago hoped that would be the course taken. But we’re not naive. It’s too late now. There’s no going back. Any deviation and Michelle Obama is there to take Hillary’s place, this election or next.
As to Donald J. Trump. Hell, that boy’sButch Cassidy. There are NO RULES in a knife fight:
“I really just want to see what happens.” It’s not D.H. Lawrence in Sane Revolution but for some in a change election, “upset the apple-cart and see which way the apples would go a-rolling” will make Trump the Avenger a winner.
Kick-the-apple-cart-watch-the-apples-role philosophy is not restricted to Bern-outs. Some of the most wealthy, according to Lawrence Kudlow, see why Trump the Avenger is needed:
Overthrow the Establishment to Fix the Economy
Famed investor Wilbur Ross recently told CNBC that “Trump represents a more radical new approach to government that the nation’s economy desperately needs.” He’s right. Trump seeks an overthrow of the establishment. He’s a disrupter — just what we need to fix the economy.
The situation is that desperate.
2016 wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Republican primary system and debates were a fix for Jeb Bush. The fix for Jeb Bush failed because Donald J. Trump declared as candidate for president. Soon, all the fixes that fixed the election for Jeb, backfired and assisted Trump.
To this day, the GOP establishment and all the power centers of institutional cronyism are aghast at the Trump Avenger victory. The Washington Post reports today:
Thirteen years after billionaire industrialist Charles Koch gathered a small group of his fellow libertarian donors in a Chicago hotel to discuss how to promote their economic theories, the network he launched is one of the country’s most potent political forces, with 1,600 staffers across 38 states.
But Koch’s refusal to harness his singular operation in support of the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has put him at odds with some of his wealthiest peers — and forced the network to defend its relevance at a time of its greatest reach.
That tension rippled behind the scenes this weekend as about 400 donors met in Colorado Springs at a luxury resort encircling a man-made lake, where white swans paddled in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains. Between panels extolling free speech and conservative state-policy victories, Koch and his top deputies heard out donors worried about the network’s decision to sit on the sidelines.
“I told him that it was very important that Hillary Clinton not get elected,” said Minnesota media mogul Stanley Hubbard, who said his biggest concern is how she would reshape the Supreme Court.
Koch’s decision not to embrace Trump threatens to alienate some heavyweight network backers who have rallied to the nominee’s side in recent months — mega-donors such as Wisconsin roofing billionaire Diane Hendricks, Oklahoma oilman Harold Hamm and New York hedge-fund magnate Robert Mercer, none of whom attended this weekend’s conclave.
The Koch brothers wanted to be the biggest players in 2016. Because of Donald J. Trump, the Koch brothers are an afterthought. That’s why the Kochs battle Trump. They would have done anything for Jeb Bush even though Jeb Bush, the weakling, would lose. Jeb Bush believed in what the political establishment wants so Jeb the loser Bush would have been A-OK. The Kochs want to be the power but with Trump they are to the side. We don’t blame the Koch brothers. We understand that Trump is, not a mortal threat, but a powerful threat to the Kochs. The political establishment hates Trump because Trump stomps them into pulp.
The Koch brothers strategy against Trump will fail. The Koch brothers will in the end only hurt themselves, not Trump. What’s funny to us is they don’t see how stupid they are. As a Trump hater at a lunatic GOP establishment site writes:
The Supreme Court was a hot topic as it relates to that specific complaint and I’m sure that the host was hearing plenty of it. The other argument being raised was that Trump is being held to a different standard than Mitt Romney. It’s easy to forget that there were many, many conservative thought leaders four years ago who were very unhappy with Mitt’s nomination, but the group consensus was that Obama was too much of a disaster to quibble over a few policy positions so Romney should be given a pass. And he was.
Koch was already backpedaling a bit during the meeting, assuring prospective donors that he would be criticizing Clinton in some of these Senate races and tying other Democratic candidates to her. [snip]
It seems as if Charles Koch is running into the same problems encountered by too many in the conservative commentariat who attempt to claim to be simultaneously #NeverTrump and #NeverHillary. That’s mathematically in the realm of unreal numbers. Forget for the moment that every conservative voter who would normally vote the GOP line but sits out the election or goes third party represents one more vote that Trump has to find elsewhere and increases Clinton’s default lead. There is also the down ballot effect. You can hope for ticket splitting to at least hang on to congressional majorities, but you’re never going to hit anywhere near 100% on that score. Koch’s position may not be directly supporting Hillary Clinton, but the indirect (and very real) electoral benefits to her are undeniable unless you’ve taken up a new residence outside of reality.
How dumb are the Kochs in their hostility to Trump? #1) They make Trump angry yet don’t ingratiate themselves to Hillary, so no matter what happens in November they are losers. #2) They say they will work and finance GOP down ballot candidates by tying their opponents to Hillary Clinton, which helps Trump anyway and angers Hillary too. #3) The Kochs help Trump by dramatically proving the political establishment is against Trump, which really does help Trump.
The Kochs are almost as dumb as Ted Cruz. Remember Ted Cruz? Ted Cruz had a strategy to beat Jeb Bush in the primaries by winning Christian evangelicals in states such as Iowa then win big in South Carolina, the doorway to the South, then victories throughout the South, Midwest, and West. But Trump won the Christian evangelicals, then South Carolina, then the South. Firewalls fell in flames. Cruz then tried to steal the nomination with his allies in the GOP establishment. The plan was to force a brokered convention wherein somehow the GOP establishment that hates Cruz would ally with Cruz to stop Trump – never thinking that any robbery would benefit some establishment figure like Rubio or Jeb. Now Cruz is fighting for his political life after losing to Avenger Trump, as Cruz donors now hate Cruz.
Soon we hope, it will be Paul Ryan’s turn to learn. At every opportunity Paul Ryan attacks Donald J. Trump. The latest excuse for Ryan’s never ending attacks against Trump is what we termed The Wrath of Khan. The GOP establishment, Big Media, like the Dim players, now attack Trump because Trump took on the silent mother and angry father of a dead Muslim American soldier. Of course, few mention that Pat Smith at the Republican convention was smeared as “offensive” and the Muslim man gets a free pass to terrorize Trump.
All American soldiers who die for their country deserve respect and honor, as Trump has said. But this is about Muslim terrorists.
Captain Khan, killed 12 years ago, was a hero, but this is about RADICAL ISLAMIC TERROR and the weakness of our "leaders" to eradicate it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 31, 2016
It’s not about the Wrath of Khan, it’s about Radical Islamic Terror even within the ranks of the U.S. military:
“Khizr Khan, whose son was one of 14 Muslims to die while serving the United States after 9/11, gets a standing ovation at the DNC.”
The statistic is derived from a 2011 report by Rep. Peter King (R-NY). No Muslim soldiers appear to have been reported killed in action since then as the media has only reported the 14 Muslim KIA.
In contrast, a total of 14 American soldiers have been murdered by Muslim soldiers in attacks since 2001.
One bad apple don’t spoil the whole bunch, girl. One good apple in a rotten bunch don’t mean much either, girl.
The entire political establishment of the left and the right, Big Media, powerful institutions is angry at Trump the Avenger. Trump the Avenger has smashed their plans. Trump the Avenger has already created massive change in the fight against Muslim terrorism:
LONDON/ANKARA (Reuters) – Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the rise of U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump have paralyzed efforts by Western governments to encourage already highly reluctant international banks to do business with Iran.
Uncertainty is frustrating Tehran’s push for foreign investment to revive its struggling economy: over Britain’s political and economic future, over whether Trump – who wants to scrap a nuclear deal with Iran – will get into the White House, and over whether banks will fall foul of U.S. sanctions if they process transactions with the Islamic Republic. [snip]
European banks have generally cited the U.S. elections as a political risk, while avoiding detailed comment on how a victory for the Republican nominee Trump might affect their business.
However, another Iranian official, who also declined to be identified, said the election and Trump’s promise to tear up the Iran nuclear deal if he wins was complicating Tehran’s efforts.
“Major European banks are worried about its outcome. An official from a German bank told us recently that they could not risk getting involved in Iran especially when Trump was a candidate,” the official said.
Trump the Avenger already has presidential size powers. Trump the Avenger thwarts Barack Obama’s efforts to aid Terrorist Iran on nukes and, still the law, bank sanctions.
Trump the Avenger destroyed and remade the Republican Party from losers tied to low wage Chamber of Commerce types to caring for the working class. Trump the Avenger destroyed and remade the Republican Party from illegal immigration sanctuary to “enforce the law” fairness.
Trump the Avenger fights. Trump kicks, bites, punches, – to Make America Great Again, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. And fairness. Kill the crony non-capitalists. Jail the lawbreakers. Trump the Avenger does it all.
Trump the Avenger brings change and fresh apple pie from the apple cart that was just kicked over.