Not much has happened this past week, but there sure is a lot of noise.
Once again we hear “it’s over for Trump” and once again we hear how Bernie Sanders is “movin’ on up, to the East Side”.
Nope, not much has happened on the political front lately. There is an intriguing Donald Trump meeting today at the Republican National Committee which might change our minds and there are some other important Trump moves, but otherwise, not much has happened.
On the Hillary v. Sanders front there was a reputable poll from Marquette University with Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary in Wisconsin by 4 points. There is the pending Hillary2016 tactical defeat in New York. There was that stunning trifecta of wins for Bernie Sanders way out West. There is the continuing Hillary2016 stumbling and mumbling. There is the gathering storm over emails and immunity for Hillary aides. There is also the tapestry that continues to move as those hidden sharpen their knives to strike at Hillary2016. But not much has actually changed.
What do we mean by not much has changed for Hillary2016 and Saint Bernard? We still think, (1) Bernie Sanders is not going to be the nominee; (2) Hillary Clinton is not going to be the nominee.
Bernie Sanders is doing his job well. Not only did Bernie Sanders survive Super Tuesday, Bernie Sanders has thrived. The many Bernie Sanders victories keep him sufficiently alive so that when the knives are readyforHillary, Hillary’s back will get full of slashes. Bernie Sanders will not be the nominee but he does buy time for the Hillary backstabbers secure at the White House.
When will the Hillary backstabbing occur? On March 18, we noted recent ominous news for Hillary. Even earlier we watched the tapestry move as Obama declared his 2017 abode and Pagliano got immunity from a federal judge. These moves occurred before Bernie Sanders bought some breathing room for the #NeverHillary backstabbers.
So, when will the Hillary backstabbing occur? Well, assume Bernie Sanders wins Wisconsin and tactically defeats Hillary in New York by keeping her margin of victory narrow (we don’t even rule out a Hillary defeat in New York), when will be the best time to take Hillary down if you are Barack Obama? Is the best time to strike at Hillary now, next month, the month after that, June, July, at the convention, immediately after the convention, a month after the convention? Our answer: the overthrow will be at the convention before a Hillary nomination (it will be much more difficult to get rid of Hillary if she is the nominee because she might refuse to surrender the nomination) and whatever legal/political assault is to occur will be in June.
That Hillary is forced to campaign and spend money in New York brings a smile to the #NeverHilary authors at the White House. So you see, when we write that nothing is happening, nothing is happening because the Obama overthrow of Hillary at the convention is in better shape and further ahead of schedule than anyone could possibly imagine.
On the Republican side, not much happened lately either. There are the claims that Trump aborted his campaign with hypotheticals, is stinking at the polls, is in legal jeopardy, and otherwise falling apart. Of course, none of that is true.
So what is happening in the GOP side of the presidential race? Well there was a very well done poll that came out with a 1% margin of error and a 7,000 sample for Wisconsin which had Trump barely ahead. But then the same Marquette University that schlonged Hillary in Wisconsin came out with a stunning poll with Trump falling behind Cruz by ten points. That the Marquette poll had a much smaller sample and with a margin of error of 5.8% was not taken note of. There will be a Fox News poll to come out on Thursday at 7:00 which no doubt will push Fox News’ aims and proclaim Trump stumbling further. The PPP poll from today with Trump at 37, Cruz at 38 and Kasich at 17 (Sanders at 49 with Hillary at 43), again tells us this GOP race in Wisconsin is very tight.
So, on the poll front, nothing has happened. That Marquette poll? It has a high margin of error which likely means the race is very tight. Trump was off the campaign trail for a week too while the poll was in the field. What do we see? The race is Wisconsin is very tight.
Yeah, nothing has happened in the poll front. Trump was with his daughter and his son for a birth and a birthday while the worst poll for him was in the field. All other polls confirm that this is a tight race. What does a tight race mean? It means good news for Trump.
The person that absolutely needs a big victory in Wisconsin is Ted Cruz, not Donald Trump. Donald Trump merely needs to pile up on delegates which he will. Wisconsin is not winner take all statewide. Wisconsin is a winner take all by congressional district and Trump is doing very well on that front. Trump will increase his delegate totals, already fattened this past week with the official Missouri win and 12 additional delegates. After Wisconsin, Trump heads towards his biggest victories in states such as New York and New Jersey.
Is Trump in trouble? Is it over for Trump? Why do we write that nothing happened these past few days?
Perhaps we should write that nothing new happened. There was a lot of noise in the Hillary v. Sanders race, but as we explained above, what we see is what we expected and what we expect to develop. All is on track. For Donald Trump nothing new at all has happened because it is all that we expected to happen and all we expect to happen.
Consider why there once again is so much noise about “it’s over for Trump”. Why the “it’s over for Trump” business again? Well, that’s because the level of noise has increased but it is still the same noise. What we have seen in Wisconsin is the same #NeverTrump coalition pumped up to jet engine noise levels. The GOP establishment after the debate with Cruz and Rubio both attacking Trump non-stop thinks that the lesson to a successful Trump attack is a coordinated, no-hold, all out series of attacks upon attacks upon attacks. That strategy is one they hoped would defeat Trump in South Carolina but failed. In Wisconsin the GOP establishment hopes to take down Trump with all out attacks that come in one right after the other.
That strategy is why Michelle Fields files phony charges against the Trump campaign manager, the reason for Paul Ryan to make his moves in Wisconsin against Trump, Scott Walker endorsing Cruz, Rand Paul to endorse tomorrow, the RNC to start a website to prepare for a contested convention , the loyalty pledges of GOP candidates to be made null and void. The entire exercise is not to elect Cruz or Kasich. The purpose of the machinations, with Ted Cruz in full participation, is to empower the GOP establishment to screw over the Republican rank and file. This happened in 2008 on the Dem side and will happen again in 2016 on the Dem side.
What we see in 2016 is the spectacle of both political parties expressing pure contempt for their respective bases. It’s disgusting, but entirely pedestrian.
Add to all this noise, the abortion clatter. Because we don’t watch MSNBC we sort of giggle at the whole “it’s over for Trump because of abortion” show.
What is this abortion story about? Well, Donald Trump appeared with Chris Matthews on MSNBC and answered a barrage of hypothetical questions.
There is much to condemn, or is it to compliment, Donald Trump for this entire Chris Matthews abortion uproar. We’ve written repeatedly that Hillary Clinton should never appear on MSNBC or anywhere with Chris Matthews. Hillary stupidly ignores our sound advice. For Trump, we don’t know what to say. On the one hand, we don’t think anyone should appear with Chris Matthews. On the other hand it is impressive that Trump will go into the lion’s den. Unlike Hillary, Trump has not been viciously attacked by Matthews, yet, so we sort of excuse Trump’s appearance with Matthews, but we also loathe Matthews so much that we hope Trump learns his lesson and treats Matthews with the same level of avoidance as a drunken Megyn Kelly.
Then there is the substance of the Trump answer on abortion. Trump said if abortion was illegal that there should be a penalty to the woman who gets the abortion. Then Trump quickly walked that answer back in a campaign statement which made the woman essentially blameless in an abortion. Was Trump goaded into his first answer by Matthews or was Trump uninformed? Did Trump shoot from the hip or was this a very carefully considered and vetted answer? Does Trump believe his first or second answer? We don’t know. What’s worst, we’re not sure if we care.
How can we, pro-choice advocates, “not care”? That’s because abortion is not illegal. Because abortion is not illegal the entire episode is sort of silly. If it rains cookies should we invest in milk? Well, it’s not raining cookies so we don’t really have to make an investment decision.
When we first heard the noise about Trump’s abortion comments we thought Trump had made an explicit call for abortion to be made illegal without exceptions and for the execution of women. Then we discover it was a hypothetical question and we knew the wrong lesson was about to be learned.
What is the lesson to be learned about Trump after the past “nothing happened” days? There is not much to be learned about Trump from the past “nothing happened” days. There is much to be learned about the voter.
Consider a voter that says “We’re on the wrong track. Politicians have failed us. The political establishment needs to be brought to heel. I want a candidate that says what she believes. I want a candidate that fights. I want a candidate that is not afraid to say what needs to be said. I want a candidate that is not beholden to the special interests that run the institutions of power to the detriment of the American people overall. I want a candidate that will not be the prisoner of advisers. I want a candidate who thinks for himself. I want a candidate that says what is on his mind, not what pollsters tell him he should say. I don’t want a perfect candidate. I want a candidate who will speak honestly and without fear. I want a leader.” Does this type of voter really mean what she says or is this voter a liar?
The problem with a non-politician running for president is that he is a non-politician. This type of candidate will say things that are not run through the mill of advisers and will utter uncontrolled remarks. The problem with a politician running for president is that he will run things through so many filters what you get is mush.
The lessons we will learn from this election are not about the candidates. We will learn about the voters.
Is it over for Trump? Trump is still very well positioned to win. Trump is slowly getting ready to fight the GOP establishment head on and Paul Ryan in particular. As to the voters and the GOP, we’ve long written that after Obama destroyed the Democratic Party the GOP would profit with new voters and would have to form a new coalition. That’s happening:
When Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump square off in Pennsylvania’s April 26 Republican presidential primary, they will find themselves competing for votes from a rapidly changing base.
At least 128,000 voters statewide have changed their registration since Jan. 1 to join the party. Nearly 85,000 of them had been Democrats; 42,000 were independents or third-party voters. The GOP has also racked up 55,468 more first-time registrants.
The changes reflect what experts are calling an unprecedented number of party switches before a primary election.
That’s in Pennsylvania. Will the same happen happen in Wisconsin? Will Wisconsin Democrats vote for Hillary Clinton or go with Bernie Sanders or hurt Sanders and give their votes to Trump or abandon Trump to vote for Sanders? We’ll know Tuesday. But we do know that a realignment of some sort, big or small, is happening.
Is it over for Trump? Voters have to decide whether they want McClellan or Grant. General George McCellan was a dapper dresser with an organizer ability but his drawback was he didn’t want to dirty with fighting his lovely grand army. General Grant was an unkempt, cigar smoking, hard drinking hairy beast who fought and fought and fought – then he would sleep and get up and fight.
With a tidy McClellan you lose the nation. With a sloven Grant you win the war. With General Patton you get a self-aggrandizing man who slaps a soldier as well as the best tank commander to defeat the Reich. With General MacArthur you get an egotistical authoritarian who destroys the Japanese war machine.
The voters will have to decide. The GOP establishment should not be the ones to decide. Is this next election going to be about national security or third trimester abortions? Is this next election going to be about illegal immigration or a hypothetical gaffe and very unlikely abortion ban? Is this next election going to be about preservation of a ruling class or the overthrow of the ruling class? Nothing happens until these questions are resolved.
Next week in Wisconsin something will happen. What will happen is that Trump will continue to rack up delegates. On April 19 something else will happen when New York votes and Trump racks up many more delegates. Eventually something big will happen. The GOP establishment will either listen to the people or the people will stop listening to the GOP. It will happen in Cleveland:
Cleave, a verb, has two very different meanings. It can describe cutting or splitting something apart with a sharp instrument, or — oddly enough — it can describe sticking to something like glue.
To cleave or not to cleave, that is the question.
In July, Cleveland will be cleave land. Something will happen.