@RealDonaldTrump At Hogwarts

Like the main dining hall at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, Donald J. Trump has no ceiling. When there is a ceiling, it’s rather enchanted.

Before the Nevada caucuses many tried to place a ceiling as Trump Towers. But the notion that Trump has a ceiling has been effectively debunked even before the Nevada Trumpnado blew the roof off:

Four Problems With the ‘Winnowing’ Theory of Trump’s Downfall
For months, establishment Republicans have envisioned the billionaire losing support as the presidential field narrows. [snip]

The theory is that Trump, who notched his second consecutive primary victory on Saturday, is a factional candidate with a “hard ceiling” of support limited to the one-third of the party. While that has propelled him to victory in crowded field in New Hampshire and South Carolina, if other candidates quit, argue some anti-Trump conservatives, those voters will consolidate behind an alternative and soundly defeat the blustery billionaire for the nomination.

Trump, however, bristled at that argument during his victory speech Saturday night. [snip]

Trump has a point, and a close examination of Republican voter data shows that the “winnowing” theory has four serious flaws.
1. It’s unclear Trump loses a three-person race [snip]
2. Trump’s ‘hard ceiling’ is overrated [snip]
3. Trump’s support is broad-based in the party [snip]
4. ‘Second choice’ votes aren’t all anti-Trump [snip]

Our regular readers know the Trump “ceiling” theory was always a crafty attempt to demean and derail the #TrumpTrain. After Nevada, the whole world knows it. In September of last year, we expounded on our theory that candidates such as Ben Carson were a therapeutic half-way house for voters on the way to vote for Trump (“For GOP voters that hate the Republican establishment but don’t like Donald Trump’s style or are not 100% sold on The Donald, they are for now parked in the Ben Carson lot but eventually they will find themselves in the Trump camp.“). Once again, our theory trumps their theory. Trump Towers above the field and now most GOP voters understand that fact, if not yet all are willing to accept it.

It’s easy now, after Nevada, to write what we wrote months ago, a few short weeks after Trump’s announcement of his candidacy. Today, the level of acceptance that Trump will be the GOP nominee is pretty much the norm:

“We’re going to do it and it’s going to happen fast,” Donald Trump said at his victory party on Tuesday night, at the Treasure Island Hotel, in Las Vegas, after winning the Nevada caucus by a large margin. [snip]

The only state where he’s not leading in the polls is Texas, Ted Cruz’s home state, and he’s catching up there. Trump mentioned his leads in Michigan, the biggest of the states voting on March 8th; in Florida, Marco Rubio’s state (“We love Florida”), which votes on March 15th; and Ohio, John Kasich’s state (“It’s always nice to be beating the governor”), which is also voting on March 15th. “It’s going to be an amazing two months,” Trump said. “We might not even need the two months, folks, to be honest.” That is an honest statement, by Trump’s standards or anyone’s.

There were other accurate things that Trump said in his victory speech. “Tonight we had forty-five, forty six per cent.” The counting, when he spoke, was in the early stages, but he turned out to be just about right—he got 45.9 per cent—with Rubio at 23.9 per cent and Cruz at 21.4, the same order as in South Carolina. (Ben Carson got five per cent, and Kasich, the object of many moderate fantasies, about three.) Trump did even better with moderates than with those voters who said that they were very conservative, though he won both groups, according to exit polls. Trump continued, “And tomorrow you’ll be hearing, You know, if they could just take the other candidates and add ’em up, and if you could add ’em up. Because you know, the other candidates amount to fifty-five per cent.” At that, Trump’s sons, Eric and Donald, Jr., who were flanking him, shook their heads and smiled at the delusions of the commentators. (Fair enough.) “They keep forgetting, that when people drop out, we’re going to get a lot of votes,” Trump said, and he was, again, probably right. [snip]

Trump also had a point about the breadth of his victory, if one that he pushed too far. “We won the evangelicals, we won with young, we won with old, we won with highly educated, we won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated!” he said, with a theatrical shrug. He added that he had won “with the smartest people, with the most loyal people”—whether those qualities were meant to be in opposition wasn’t clear—“and you know what I really am happy about? Because I’ve been saying it for a long time, Forty-six per cent with the Hispanics, forty-six per cent, number one with Hispanics!”

Hispanics! Trump wins Hispanics against Hispanic Ted Cruz? Houston, Ted Cruz has a problem. Trump wins Hispanics against Hispanic Marco Rubio? Florida, Rubio’s got a problem. As to the rest of that article, Hillary supporters from 2008 will appreciate how that New Yorker article sneers against those who sneer at Trump from a class snobbism, even as the article cites “Trump’s bitter populism”. The snobs who mock the snobs don’t even recognize they are snobs themselves – and that is one big reason why Trump wins.

After Nevada there will be a CNN GOP debate on Thursday night. Then on Tuesday, well, it’s Super Tuesday when many states will vote. Trump is up on the polls just about everywhere. In many of the SuperTuesday states Donald Trump is already in double digit leads. Only in Texas is the poll picture not perfection for Trump.

Donald Trump does not have to win Texas nor even come in very close to the top spot. But if Trump beats Ted Cruz in Texas, Ted Cruz is cooked. The latest Texas poll indicates a salacious three way tie:

With less than a week until the Texas GOP pres­i­den­tial pri­mary, Sen­a­tor Ted Cruz is edg­ing out his two chief rivals, with Cruz hav­ing 29% of the vote fol­lowed by Don­ald Trump at 28% and Marco Rubio at 25%, accord­ing to an Emer­son Col­lege track­ing poll released today. Ohio’s John Kasich is at 9%, and retired neu­ro­sur­geon Ben Car­son comes in fifth, with 4%.

Tight as a tick on a lemon scented buttock. Trump at 28%, Cruz at 29%, and we’ve yet to see the impact of the Nevada results. If Trump comes even close in the Cruz home state, Cruz is cooked and served up in the Hogwarts dining hall.

Ted Cruz needs a blow-out victory in Texas and at least a victory somewhere else if only to survive. Marco Rubio needs a victory at some point too, somewhere, or his entire candidacy is a fantasy story found in The Tales of Beedle the Bard.

Donald Trump is performing electoral magic. Maybe, just maybe, it’s not over for America. Maybe, we can Make America Great Again.


68 thoughts on “@RealDonaldTrump At Hogwarts

  1. http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/big-2016-story-out-nevada-gop-caucus-turnout-n524951

    The Big 2016 Story Out of the Nevada GOP Caucus? Turnout.

    While Donald Trump won a sweeping victory in Nevada on Tuesday night – his third victory in a row – the biggest story out of the Silver State may actually be the record-breaking turnout Republicans saw at the evening’s caucus gatherings.

    The Nevada Republican Party reported Wednesday morning that more than 75,000 voters participated in the contest. While that might not seem like a stunning number in a state with a population of somewhere around three million, that turnout absolutely demolished the participation record from 2012, when only about 33,000 Republican voters showed up to caucus.

    In fact, Donald Trump alone captured 34,531 votes in his near-landslide victory in the state, surpassing the total votes cast in the same contest four years ago.

    It’s a pattern that has played out in each of the previous Republican 2016 contests to date.

    In South Carolina, more than 730,000 voters turned out during Saturday’s GOP primary contest, up from about 603,000 in 2012. In New Hampshire, Republicans shattered the 2012 tally of about 248,000 with a turnout of more than 284,000 this year. And in Iowa, Republicans counted more than 180,000 participants, up from about 121,000 in 2012.

    On the Democratic side, the story has not been as rosy. After notching record turnouts in the 2008 Democratic primaries during the epic battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the party’s participation this cycle has fallen short of those numbers in every nominating contest to date.

    Here are those Democratic turnout numbers:

    Iowa 2008: 239,972
    Iowa 2016: 171,109

    New Hampshire 2008: 288,672
    New Hampshire 2016: 250,983

    Nevada 2008: 120,000
    Nevada 2016: 80,000

  2. Ceilings. Anti-Trump Weekly Standard:


    Trump Has Won More Votes Than Romney Had At This Point in 2012

    And many more than McCain had in 2008, too.

    Donald Trump has yet to win an outright majority in a primary or caucus – though he’s getting closer, pulling in 46 percent of the vote in Nevada. But he’s winning massive numbers of votes.

    Mitt Romney won Nevada’s caucus in 2012 with about 50 percent of the vote. He did so by pulling in roughly 16,000 total votes – roughly the same number that second-place finisher Marco Rubio pulled in this year. Donald Trump, by contrast, more than doubled Romney’s total, garnering 34,500 votes.

    That pattern has played out across all of the early states, which are seeing huge Trump-inspired (and, at some level, anti-Trump-inspired) turnout.

    All told, Trump has now won approximately 420,000 votes. After the first four states had voted in 2012, Mitt Romney had won about 311,000 votes. Back in 2008, meanwhile, eventual nominee John McCain had won a little more than 250,000 votes after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada had voted.

    Before the primaries got underway in earnest, many assumed that Trump would fare more poorly than his poll numbers indicated because so many of his supporters had rarely voted in the past. But with this election, the past has not been a reliable predictor of future events.


  3. The flood begins:


    Trump lands his first congressional endorsements

    Donald Trump finally has official supporters in Congress.

    Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) told POLITICO on Wednesday that he will support Trump for the Republican nomination, making him one of the first members of Congress to express public support for the Manhattan businessman who is the prohibitive front-runner after his victory in Tuesday’s Nevada caucuses.

    Also on Wednesday, Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) told The Buffalo News that he is backing Trump, saying he has the “guts and fortitude” to get jobs back from China and to take on foreign threats such as the Islamic State and North Korea.

    In an interview on Wednesday, Hunter told POLITICO that Trump has the strength needed for the job. “We don’t need a policy wonk as president. We need a leader as president,” Hunter said, adding that he has told his colleagues much of the same thing. “I’m in, and I’ve been in,” he said in a telephone interview.

    Noting that he and Trump see eye-to-eye on a number of issues, including border security, manufacturing and national security, Hunter said he also likes Trump for another reason. “I don’t think Trump wants my endorsement,” Hunter said, while also remarking that he has not heard from the candidate himself. “And that’s one reason why I like him,” he added. Trump said earlier Wednesday that “endorsements mean very little.”

    Hunter sponsored legislation last year that became known by its opponents as the Donald Trump Act, which would have forced local law enforcement in sanctuary cities to notify Immigration and Customs Enforcement if they had an undocumented immigrant in custody.

    Hunter, a former Marine, was elected to Congress in 2008, taking over the seat of his father, Duncan L. Hunter, who had an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2008.

    “I’ve liked Trump since the beginning,” Hunter said, and he hinted that other members of Congress might secretly support Trump as well.

    “I think you have more Trump supporters in Congress. They just have to come out of the closet, so to speak,” he said.

    A spokeswoman for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

  4. Shadowfax, Hillary needed Reid before the caucuses, not after.

    Reid’s endorsement means he is now free to stab Hillary in the back then claim “but I endorsed her so I’m only doing it to help her”. When the knife comes, Reid will help shove it in. That Hillary does not tell Reid to go fu*k himself embarrasses us.

  5. Ben Smith:


    The Only Strategy For Hillary Clinton Is To Scorch The Earth

    If Hillary Clinton manages to beat Bernie Sanders, the early primaries have already revealed that there’s only one strategy for the general election against a Republican, be it Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, or Ted Cruz: Scorch the earth.

    There was a scenario, which looks more like a fantasy, in which Clinton was a movement. Women in their twenties, thirties, and forties would rally to her the way black Americans rallied to Obama; she would run on her own mantle of change.

    In reality, nobody is that excited about Hillary Clinton, and young voters, women and men — the foot soldiers of any Democratic Party movement — aren’t coming around. She lost a resounding 82% of voters under 30 in Nevada. Her campaign now rests on the hope that voters of color like her well enough, if nowhere near as much as they like Obama. And that means that when she faces a Republican, she will have to destroy him — something the people who will be doing the destroying acknowledged when I asked them earlier this month.

    The slogan is ‘Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid,’” said Paul Begala, who is an adviser to the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA.

    Begala’s group works on the negative side of the political ledger, and he argued that Clinton will have supporters — Sanders among them — helping to rally Democrats. But he and other top Democratic operatives agreed that 2016 will be, as the technical term for negative politics goes, “a contrast election.”

    This is headed to a more contrastive kind of election,” said David Axelrod, the architect of Obama’s 2008 campaign. “People want to know you’re going to lead with a positive vision, but within the context of that, you can set up a contrast. Every campaign has to do that, she may have to do it more intensely.

    This is, to be fair to Clinton, the way of this century’s American politics — and Obama’s ability to run a campaign in 2008 that was focused as much on his own promise as on destroying his rival was the exception, not the rule. 2012 was a death march. 2004 was a horror show. This election is another entry in that pattern, another suggestion that it’s not going to get much better.

    “No matter who the nominee is this election will feel more like ‘04 and ‘12 than ‘08,” said Dan Pfeiffer, Obama’s former communications director.

    A Clinton spokesman, Brian Fallon, didn’t directly comment on general election plans, but noted that “it is the exception, rather than the rule, for general elections not to be close affairs.”

    Democrats are now left to hope that the Republican Party will make a campaign of fear easy by nominating a candidate campaigning on bigotry. Donald Trump has already hinted that he plans to attack Clinton as nastily as possible, on subjects including her husband’s infidelity.

    It will be her versus a fucking asshole in almost any scenario,” mused one prominent Obama loyalist. “It’s going to be a lot of fear, but she’s going to have a lot of room to run, and she’s not going to have to destroy the other person, because the other person is going to be so eminently destroyable.”

    Begala, who will be manning the wrecking ball in the summer and fall, said that if Rubio, seen as the hardest of the Republican targets, is the nominee, one issue presents itself clearly: “He will be the first major party in American history who believes that a woman should be forced by law to bring a rapist’s baby to term,” he said.

    In any event, he said, the broad theme of those attacks will be that “the Republican Party has gone insane.”

    So don’t expect 2016 to be a fond political memory.

    We doubt Hillary will be the nominee. But we would love a knock-out, drag-out, fight. It’s time for an honest discussion not the political bull that masquerades as discussion. Hillary never told the truth about Obama in 2008. Since then Hillary only lies about Obama by praising him.

    We’d love to hear the truth from Hillary in 2016. Unfortunately, Hillary will not tell the truth about Obama but instead attack Trump. Trump? Trump will give measure for measure. We’ll like that back and forth and maybe the truth will come out that way.

    Let the blood flow into rivers, then into oceans of blood.

  6. admin
    February 24, 2016 at 3:24 pm

    Well there’s that scenario based on his previous history, then there’s the possibility that they see Trump picking up speed and have decided to get Bernie out of the way as fast as possible, so they can gear up against Trump.

    It’s pretty apparent that you are all in for Trump now, so I hope your analysis on this issue isn’t accurate.

    I will still keep my eyes and ears open, since Reid is a low down snake in the grass.

  7. Admin
    Are you still of opinion that Hillary will be replaced?

    I won’t breath sigh of relief for Trump until 3/15

    Lord I remember in 08 .. we all worked so hard or Hillary and cried and I didn’t sleep and we called super delegates…. I am not emotionally involved this go around with anyone I just want America to be Great Again!

  8. foxyladi14
    February 24, 2016 at 10:35 am
    Trump’s lil wifie. 😀

    foxy, thanks for the video. Good grief, Melania as first lady will make the days of Camelot look like Hee Haw in comparison.

  9. I think March 15th will answer a lot of questions..Could make the path for Trump almost impossible to stop . Hillary likewise should do well but with proportional delegates Bernie could stick around for awhile.

  10. http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/elections/cruz-trump-tied-in-wfaa-texas-poll/55007805

    DALLAS – Six days before Super Tuesday, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are now tied in Texas, according to a new public opinion poll commissioned by WFAA-TV.

    Cruz and Trump both had 32 percent support from likely and actual GOP primary voters, with a 3.9 percent margin of error.

    It is the most recent survey of Texas voters and the first one to show Cruz no longer leading in his home state.

    “He’s fading,” said Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, of Ted Cruz’s candidacy. “Trump has proven to be stronger and more resilient than anyone expected.”

    Marco Rubio is a distant third in the WFAA Texas TEGNA poll with 17 percent, John Kasich has 6 percent, Ben Carson has 5 percent and another 5 percent of respondents remain undecided, the poll revealed.

    On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has double the support of Bernie Sanders with 61 percent compared to his 32 percent. Seven percent of likely or actual Democratic voters were undecided.

  11. by chance I caught Duncan Hunter endorsing Donald on Greta
    I am pretty sure I heard him say he has never met Donald and has not spoken to him…there was no discussion of an endorsement…he just likes Donald and thinks he will be a great leader…and for the record, duncan says he was backing Jeb before he dropped out and now is backing DT…and he said he believes there are many others that he expects will be coming out very soon to endorse The Donald

  12. Trumps skips Fox(Megyn Kelly) town hall.

    And to think she probably had all her gotcha questions lined up and now has to deal with Moe and Curley.

  13. as for Hillary’s campaign…besides the obvious worse aspect of it…her insistence on being O3…what is letting the air out of the balloon, so to speak…is that her campaign is not inspiring at all

    I am sorry…but it is dull…she goes on with her evident intelligence checking off policy wonk info…and the rest of it is grievances…she seems to be taking care of everyone but the middle class, although she will throw the words “middle class” in for good measure…it is as if she has a check list for every minority and literally their mothers etc…it is all about pitting this one against that one….and guilt…

    it just sounds like her campaign and spokespeople are making excuses and whining…

    i heard Jim Clyburn whining away today…it just makes you want to turn the channel…and if you do and DT is on…he is having fun…talking to and with his audience…and outlining big picture topics that Hillary won’t touch…giving a vision for the future…not waddling in the past of a failed president…

    as far as a scorched earth…that is a losing strategy if she will be running against Trump…clue to Begalia…if it is Trump…”be afraid, be very afraid” he will show no mercy and hit her with everything…

    Hillary could have been Trump but she chose to be Obama…and the air is going out …that is why Dem attendance is going down, down, down and Trump attendence is going up, up, up…Hillary made the decision to go down this path…frankly I still cannot believe she did this to herself and us…

    so for those that keep saying this isn’t a Hillary blog…don’t blame us…ask her why…why…she had to waste all this valuable time on a loser…

  14. 2008 Democratic primaries during the epic battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the party’s participation this cycle has fallen short of those numbers in every nominating contest to date.

    The numbers participating have fallen quite a bit for the dems…. and way up for the republicans. I know Trump is attracting a lot of new voters….

    but maybe it’s not all new voters accounting for higher repub numbers – maybe the lower dem numbers are due to dems voting…. for Trump.

  15. Trump is bringing this thing in, Like so many of his projects.
    Ahead of time and under budget. 😀

    By the way, I have found Trump’s ceiling.
    It is in the Oval Office. 🙂

    Foxy, I do think you win the funniest person award!

  16. lorac…that is the one statistic and question no one in the MSM is touching yet…

    ‘How many democrats changed their party affiliation to vote for Donald Trump’

    I bet both parties do not want the answer to that question to go public…

  17. “No matter who the nominee is this election will feel more like ‘04 and ‘12 than ‘08,” said Dan Pfeiffer, Obama’s former communications director.

    I don’t know…. people like to say how Trump and his people are angry… Trump admits he is angry about the country going downhill, as are his supporters. But tune into any rally, and he and people are ecstatic, they’re happy, they are looking forward to hope and change, this time not led by a fraud who means none of it, who admittedly just let them project their own wishes on his blank slate….

    Anyway, I think this election just may be a lot like 2008, you’ve got a really popular guy bringing in HUGE crowds (and he doesn’t have to have a famous rock band play first to get them in the door), people optimistic about the future, people motivated to vote, etc.

  18. I’d love to see some brave columnist talk about how Trump is out-Obamaing Obama with the rallies, etc. And he can talk about issues without notes, let alone teleprompters to tell him what to say.

  19. Actually it is similar to 2008 in that Hillary may very well win the popular vote and still get screwed by her party.

  20. jb, I believe admin has pointed out that if the repubs try that with Trump (with their wanting to pull a fast one at the convention), he will fight, fight, fight.

    Hillary didn’t fight (and she swore she would). I don’t know if they blackmailed her, or if she is just SO much party before country… but if it’s the latter and they try again… part of the blame, IMO, will be on Hillary, if she doesn’t fight them.

    I guess it’s like what Trump says about other countries we have huge trade imbalances with… he doesn’t really fault the other countries, he faults OUR administrations for letting it happen, for not fighting for a fair deal….

  21. “The reason that I think there’s a bombshell in there,” the former Massachusetts governor continued, “is because every time he’s asked about his taxes, he dodges and delays and says, ‘Well, we’re working on it.’

    gonzo, thanks for posting that article. When I was leaving work, a tv in the waiting room was on, and the newscasters were saying that Trump’s supporters are loyal and they won’t care, and the strip at the bottom of the tv said “Trump tax bombshell”, and I listened for a minute or so more, but no one would say what the bombshell was!

    So, now I know there WAS no bombshell, it’s just Romney (of all people) surmising there is. And of course none of the 3 frontrunners (maybe no one running?) has released their taxes. But it’s a Trump problem.

    I guess they GOP is really reaching…

  22. S… Duncan Hunter is from here. His dad’s office was in La Mesa, a suburb right next to San Diego. I’ve never followed local politics for some reason, just national and international, but I’ve always heard this area leans conservative, they say it’s mainly because of all the military bases (but the sailors, coast guard, and marines certainly don’t outnumber the general populace numbers).

    It’s interesting, though, that he went from Mr. Base to Mr. I’m Going to Smash the System and Supplant Owned Politics with Public Servant-ness.

    Maybe Hunter was going with Bush because he knew the plan, but once Bush dropped out, he ran to the side of the likely winner, to minimize any future hurt? (I don’t know anything about the guy, if he is corrupt or not.)

  23. Ted Cruz needs a blow-out victory in Texas and at least a victory somewhere else if only to survive. Marco Rubio needs a victory at some point too, somewhere, </i

    So, they need this just to survive…. but to win they have to meet the republicans' new rules, such as winning 8 states… that number sure seems awfully high for them right now…. poor little cubans…

  24. Donald Trump has yet to win an outright majority in a primary or caucus – though he’s getting closer,

    admin – what number would constitute an “outright majority”? 51%?

  25. jb – I know… you really can’t even honk your horn at someone, because you never know if they might be someone who’d shoot at you (in a big city, anyway).

  26. Beck has lost his marble. Yes, yes, I know, how could he lose what he never had, etc.

    I see where he is now comparing Trump supporters to brown shirts.

    I think its time to say good night Johnny.

    I think it is past time to send him to Saville Row

    So they can fit him for a bespoke straitjacket.

    I can’t promise he would look good in one.

    I can only say it would fit.

  27. Anger is the active manifestation of fear. Both parties have wanted to keep the subliminal anxiety and low level fear to manipulate and keep control, but they went too far in the past few years and now have anger which is much more difficult or impossible to manage. Ratcheting up fear or toning it down for political effect has been done for eons. Obama and the media have been masters. It is an art especially in politics. Also notice both sides suggesting that anger (which is heightened fear) is somehow declasse (except when Cokie Roberts and her beauty shop ladies in Georgetown experience it seeing Trump or Cruz) but unreasonable and backward if a family in a South Texas neighborhood is overrun by drug cartels engaging in kidnapping and running gun battles. It is a class thing I presume and they need to be called on it. Fear and anxiety is not acceptable for the little people but is for the wealthy and secure even if it is all in their heads (or pocketbooks). The bigotry of the ruling class is impossible to ignore and the backlash is strong which of course further agitates the comfortable in anxiety and fear. It is their turn now. I am enjoying it.

  28. admin
    February 24, 2016 at 4:17 pm

    REPORT: Anti-Trump Billionaires Stop Funding Ads Against Trump – See His Nomination as Inevitable

    There reaches a point where you crash or jump. They are jumping. Being on The Donald’s (and the public’s) shit list is not going to be a good place. There has been a lot of cost/benefit analysis going on since SC. Being neutral costs nothing. Picking the wrong side is very costly as history has repeatedly shown. How hard is this even for morons.

  29. Marco (Polo!) is trending down right before Super-duper Tuesday. http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160215-20160225/type/day
    Trump is up significantly and Cruz went up slightly.

    So what is going on? The massive ad buys (all of the ads are Cruz and Marco in my ad market), slobbering media coverage, and “endorsements” are not helping. It would appear they are hurting. And of course he is a sweaty dud roboting his way through interviews and puny speech venues. The more the “establishment” DC professional class of politicos, media and consultant hacks herald his talents, the “math” (which involves Ted and Trump dropping out or something like that), and Hispanic!!! Neocon bona fides out the wazoo, the droopier his polling. I think we are seeing the !Jeb effect. This is of course the more the elites like something, shill and pander for something, announce groteseque money amounts and inevitability, the less the public will accept it this year. DC really, really likes Rubio so there must be something seriously wrong with him besides the obvious. The !Jeb effect. Lucky Trump schlonged all of them.

  30. Trump is done Stick a fork in him. lol

    Hated by everyone alike.

    The R’s the D’s, Mitt is on his case big time.

    Even the Pope fer Gods sake.

    lol if you buy that??? I gotta bridge. 😆

  31. Hillary was a “movement” because she’s scary smart, strong as hell, and has the stamina of 10 men – and because in 2008, she was a centrist – of course being a centrist, and not being a black male cost her the nomination.

    While she has always supported women, children and families, Hillary has not made gender the central issue of her campaigns.. Hell – women were as quick as men were to stab her in the back in 2008 – and in 2016 for that mater – especially Gen X and Milenials as well as progressive women who were regressive enough to fight for the unqualified male over the qualified female b/c he could read a speech (written by someone else) so smoothly it just blew their dresses up.

    The younger women, never having had to face some of the obstacles that their mothers and grandmothers faced, and apparently so lacking the interest in the women’s rights that they never picked- up a freaking book on the subject, were too stupid to support this highly qualified female. She just was not cool enough – not like barack.

    Yes, Hillary’s campaign needs to change in a big way. After the abuse she took by the DNC and other progs in 2008, it a small wonder that she felt the need to move to the left. It’s a different time, now. The progs had their 30 minutes and F’ed the country up so damn badly the pendulum has swung – not in the exact opposite direction, but as support for Trump shows, it is no longer on the far left side of the clock.

  32. The Dems have become real ‘haters”.. They have no tolerance for those with opinions that differ from theirs. Every time Hillary calls me and people like me racist for wanting the rule of immigration law to prevail, I respect her less. In fact, there is almost no respect at this point.
    America is based on equality for all….not special preference for this or that racial or ethnic group. That attitude is a disgrace to everything this country stands for and I’m beginning to despise them.

    Republicans need to start dispensing with this garbage now. We dealt with it here when we fought illegal overcrowded housing that was bringing down property values and destroying our school tax base. We fought hard to fight off the racism charges and succeeded. It was never about race.
    Truth be told the real problems in the American Black community are within that community itself, not the average American.

  33. Free

    You tell um.

    As far as the younger generation not supporting women and women’s rights…I say, let them eat cake and fight for themselves if they lose these rights. I am done with them…

    Hillary was always been more to the center than the kook left.

  34. Mormaer
    February 25, 2016 at 6:02 am
    Yes to all that you said.

    The Washington cartel is terrified

    I think the sum of their fear is this:

    In the world of Donald Trump

    Being what they are

    1) well connected, i.e. Harvard trained

    2) incompetent, i. couldn’t pour piss out of a boot, and-

    3) overpaid, i.e. which is why Brokaw calls Washington DC “The New Versailles”–while 100 million Americans cannot find a job, while they claim that Obama has reduced the unemployment rate to 5%

    May no longer be enough

    And their propaganda, fear mongering, and flood tide of imagery

    May not be enough to control the great unwashed

    In a time when

    Parasites like them

    Are killing the host

    Puppetry and keeping the man down

    May not be enough

    The public is looking them–

    Their betters

    With blood in their eyes

    And saying–

    Here’s looking at you, kid

    And just because you are not interested in us

    Does not mean that we are not interested in you.

    If it were up to me, I would say: hang em high

  35. Lately the establishment leadership is increasingly feeling that things are getting out of hand. Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, tried to understand why the political punditry, including himself, failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump. Drezner argues in the Washington Post that political professionals lulled themselves into thinking that “pitch framing” would steer voters away from Trump. They relied on their theory and their theory failed.

    Last month Fangraph’s Jeff Sullivan wrote something interesting about the waning ability of major league catchers to “frame” pitches — i.e., make a ball look like a strike to home plate umpires. In short, over the past year or so catchers who were historically skilled at pitch framing stopped having consistent success at it. …

    So what happened? Sullivan’s hypothesis is that because of all the analysis of this phenomenon, umpires are now cognizant of pitch framing. They responded to the new data by becoming more suspicious of catchers who are really good at it. …

    When Trump announced that he was running last summer, his lack of establishment support and high unfavorables made it extremely easy to very smart people to confidently assert that he had almost no chance at securing the GOP nomination. I certainly predicated my own horrible, no-good, very bad predictions on this kind of analysis. …

    They kept reading analysis after analysis in 2015 about how Donald Trump had little chance of winning the GOP nomination. They read smart take after smart take telling them that Trump didn’t have a chance. Even as the media covered Trump, even as late as the South Carolina debate, pundits were also talking about how his latest transgressive comment would doom his chances.

    Sanders, Trump, Cruz and Rubio should have been non-viable. The pundits had it all figured out — but a funny thing happened along the way. The public didn’t behave in the way automation-proof Boston and Washington DC predicted. They are now trying to debug a whole slew of error messages. Whether it is students rebelling against speech codes; people rising up against the Trust and Safety Council of Twitter or the electorate doing unpredictable things there appears to be something in the water that the operatives cannot explain. For some reason the complex machinery of the Western world is doing what inputs tell it to do. It’s not doing what the leaders want.

    . The sacred offices and prerogatives of the Western world, behind which incompetence could lurk are being commoditized. Technological diffusion may be changing the world faster than those inside the Beltway can cope. From the collapse of nonproliferation regime, to the spread of ISIS in Libya to China’s bid not for parity — but dominance in Asia the world the leaders of the West must be feeling: “there seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today.”

    What’s wrong is that merely occupying high office can no longer offset mediocrity. Automation may be replacing not just the $20/hour jobs but also the $225,000 a speech ones which deliver empty blather.

    The growing competition from power rivals has revealed that the great and the good without talent are just unskilled labor. Recently the former Director of the CIA and NSA, General Michael Hayden, explained that the administration’s drone kill list, contrary to the narrative, was not a masterpiece of judicial and Solomonic judgment by president Obama but simply the result of a computer program. “We kill people based on metadata,” Hayden said.

    Perhaps the lesson one should draw from the failure to anticipate the rise of Sanders and Trump is that the old rent-seeking leadership is obsolete. You have to be something more than the “first woman”, “a blank screen” or a “campaign van driver” to lead a country. An image no longer does it. Particularly foolish was the conceit that the administration consisted of the “smartest people in the room”, “the only adults” who “never do anything stupid.” Not only are they not these, they were fools to think they ever were.

    Information has become so important in the modern world that mental dishonesty and intentional mediocrity are no longer forgivable mistakes but fatal flaws. The world may soon witness not only a crisis of the low-skilled labor market, but an even bigger crisis in the professions of the incompetent but overpaid.


  36. I like the baseball anology of framing the pitch. The umps wold always call a strike, particularly if it was a good pitcher. Now, with the slow motion diagrams you see how they could take a ball out if the strike zone and almost instantly frame it into a strike . The good umps caught on just like the public has with the establishment. They can no longer frame the issues with a wild pitcher like Trump.

  37. Foxy

    No problem, a Sanders win would mean everyone would be allotted 3 equal squares of the cheapest, recycled tp. The Only Black Lives Matter, would get 4 squares.

  38. Black Lives Matter!

    Yes, and all lives matter.

    No you racist scum Malley.

    (Only) Black Lives Matter!!

    O Malley apologizes for his heresy.

    Some ask if he believes all lives matter

    How can he be a democrat?

    Well, good for them.

    They took down St. Bernard.

    And now they are stalking Hillary.

    Obama and Holder created BLM.

    Now Hillary has to deal with it.

    Being wedded to Obama is no defense.


  39. foxyladi14
    February 25, 2016 at 3:32 pm

    It is acutally worse than no TP. “He says the government’s tight controls on imports have made it impossible to get hold of seeds and fertilizer.

    “It’s crippling us. Many people round here have the land all prepared for sowing, but we can’t get hold of the seeds.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35642365

    And “Venezuela is shipping gold to Europe so that it can pay its debt.

    Venezuela sent $1.3 billion worth of gold bars to Switzerland in mid-January, according to data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration.” http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/25/news/economy/venezuela-gold-debt/

    The country is being liquidated.

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