Update: Open thread: The battle for New Hampshire’s silver medal. The moment the polls closed the races were called for Trump and Sanders. Trump can only hope that penniless and organization-less Kasich comes in second. Barbara Bush coming in third would be a dream come true for Trump too.
We have exclusive video of Marco Rubio at home:
But seriously folks, here’s some information on people who voted for Boob Obama and after they sobered up will now vote for Donald Trump:
Farmington, New Hampshire (CNN)Eight years after they drew inspiration from Barack Obama’s insurgent campaign, some of the very voters who helped elect the first African-American president are standing behind a candidate whose image and message are strikingly different: Donald Trump.
Obama campaigned on themes of hope and change; Trump declared in his June announcement speech that the American Dream was dead. Obama called on the country to shed racial divisions; some of Trump’s biggest applause lines are his pledge to build a wall on the Mexican border and ban Muslim immigration. Obama is a gifted orator with a cool and intellectual demeanor; Trump is an improviser with a knack for dramatic flair.
But at Trump’s rallies in New Hampshire days ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary, it’s not too difficult to find ex-Obama supporters in the crowds. These individuals say they are once again drawn to the promise of change. But the version they’re seeking now is grounded less on optimistic idealism, and more on something harder and angrier: sheer strength and force of will.
Gary Chagnon, a machinist from Barnstead, voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012. He recently submitted an absentee ballot for Trump, and said he was drawn to Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again.”
“We don’t need hope and change,” Chagnon, 50, said. “We need somebody with a set of balls, so to say.”
Chagnon’s wife, Annette, also supported the President twice, and this time plans to vote for Trump. A 51-year-old working in the shipping industry, Annette said she doesn’t feel the country is safe and cast blame on Obama.
“He’s a little too lax on our borders. I don’t think he’s paid enough attention to that and it contributes to us having homegrown people coming in and killing us,” she said. “I don’t like it and I like that Trump is right on that.” [snip]
The support Trump is drawing from independents and even voters who have tended to vote for Democrats in the past exemplifies the non-traditional nature of the real estate mogul’s campaign. And that support could prove to be critical for Trump here in a state with an outsized bloc of independent voters.
Many independent voters who supported Obama in 2008 quickly turned on him after he took office, frustrated over the state of the economy and in many cases disenchanted by Obama’s signature health care law. After winning 52% of independents in the 2008 general election, Obama trailed Mitt Romney among independents four years later, 45% to 50% (Obama won New Hampshire both cycles).
In the final stretch of Obama’s two-term tenure in the White House, national security concerns, including the threat of ISIS and the flow of undocumented immigrants and refugees into the country, are increasingly pronounced. [snip]
Amid heightened concern about national security, voters are looking for not only a change in direction but also a shift in tone. Trump, with his no-apologies attitude and brash rhetoric, is appealing to those desires.
Chris Hickey, a retired Army veteran from Wolfeboro, is an independent who voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012. This year, he’s most likely to vote for Trump, whom Hickey called a “no nonsense” candidate.
“He’s a little rough around the edges at times but I think he’ll do a good job,” he said. “One of the things I don’t like about President Obama — he’s always apologizing, it seems to me, for the United States. And I don’t think Trump will do those things.”
The sentiment isn’t limited to New Hampshire.
We’ve discussed why Trump is popular with the working class. When retired elementary school teachers at the age of 70 cast their votes for a Republican for the first time ever, something’s up. The partner of said elementary school teacher says “I feel totally betrayed,” by Obama. “If we don’t see a Trump in this Oval Office, I don’t think this country will survive to see another election as the country we knew it and the country I fought for.” And that explains why even the mopes who voted for Obama now vote for Trump and don’t care about Trump’s “tone”.
The exit polls are already out. Little surprise on the GOP side:
Republican voters expressed deep worries about both the economy (three-quarters were very worried) and the threat of terrorism (6-in-10 very worried). About 9-in-10 said they were dissatisfied with the federal government, including about 4-in-10 who were angry about the way it was working. And for many, the dissatisfaction extends to the GOP itself. Half said they felt betrayed by politicians from the Republican Party, and about the same share said they wanted the next president to be from outside the political establishment.
Then there is this:
NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
Trump is expected to win tonight. Thanks to anti-Trump voters, Trump might get more votes that the votes Trump gets:
A lot of Republicans will head to the polls in New Hampshire on Tuesday, motivated to vote against Donald Trump.
But because of a quirk in how the state party allocates delegates and how fractured the “establishment” field is, it could mean that an anti-Trump vote will actually be a vote for the New York billionaire.
The state party awards delegates on a proportional basis to presidential candidates based on their vote statewide and by congressional district.
But it also has a 10 percent threshold.
What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates. (And this is a hard threshold — no rounding.)
What’s more, not only do those underperforming candidates get no delegates, but whatever delegates they could have gotten based on their vote share go to the winner of the primary (!).
And, right now, the favorite is Trump.
Some estimates are that Trump might get 40% of his delegates from Trump haters.
On the Obama Dimocrat Party side, the electorate, via the exit poll, is different:
Though Democrats voting on Tuesday were less apt to say they felt betrayed by their party or to express anger with the federal government, about three-quarters said they were worried about the economy. About 4-in-10 said they thought life for the next generation of Americans would be worse than life today, and 9-in-10 said they thought the nation’s economy favored the wealthy.
Still, Democrats who went to the polls Tuesday — to vote in a race featuring two seasoned politicians — were more apt than Republicans to say they wanted the next president to have experience in politics, only about one-quarter said they preferred a president from outside the political establishment.
Tomorrow morning socialist Bernie Sanders will meet with race-baiter Al Sharpton. The Hillary hating New York Times predicts a Hillary “implosion” tonight. As to the rumors of a major Hillary2016 upheaval, we’ve made our feelings well known and will have a lot more to say if and when it happens. Will Hillary suffer a major defeat tonight? Will socialist Bernie Sanders win big tonight? We’ll be prudent and wait for the results because in New Hampshire unpredictable independents vote in big numbers.
As to the Republican side, we expect Trump to win. If Trump wins our post Iowa prediction will serve as our forecast. Our forecast is aided by the remarkably predictable events after Trump “lost” Iowa which Big Media still fails to understand.
Big Media has long predicted that if Trump lost Iowa he would slink away in a fury, unable to handle a loss. Big Media declared Trump was a “win” candidate and that if he lost Iowa Trump voters would flee Trump even if Trump himself did not flee from the race in a storm of fury and tears. But after Iowa, Trump’s supporters remained firm. Trump remained. Trump did not flinch. Trump has even said that if he loses in New Hampshire he still stays in the race. Big Media does not understand that Trump supporters are made of firm stuff and, like Mets fans, they understand that you win the World Series even though during the baseball season you lose many games.
As we wrote before the Iowa vote, the best results for Trump are a ten point or more victory with the governor candidates coming in very close to each other in a bunch, followed by Senators Robot and Cruz. This would provide Trump a divided opposition with each candidate harboring “break out” fever and thereby staying in the race until further humiliation at the hands of Trump, in South Carolina.
On the Dim side, Hillary can hope for a victory, however slim. It’s doubtful but possible. If Sanders wins by more than ten points – “Danger, Danger, Will Robinson.”