Update: Prediction time. Speak now. We’ve made our predictions, now put up or kiss-up.
Understand this: The governed withdraw their consent from the corrupt political establishment. We’re in a pre-Civil War situation. America 2016 is late stage America of the 1819 Missouri Compromise, the Compromise of 1850, the Kansas Nebraska Act of 1854, Dred Scott decision of 1857, and finally the presidential election of 1860. The stakes are that high. Iowa today possibly sets off the prairie fire.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” Only a successful next president that can lead the country and unify it via clear, undisputed economic achievement with resonant leadership can prevent the fraying and eventual dissolution or the long painful circle the drain vortex.
Today, put aside whom you like, whom you favor, this candidate is nice, that candidate is creepy, I like her, I hate him, he’s a pig, he is great, blah, blah blah candidate talk – put that all aside. Put aside the pseudo-intellectual posing drivel that Iowa matters except when it doesn’t and today is nothing to get excited about. This election in Iowa today is potentially the big one. You’ll never live long enough to see it’s like. The Roosevelt election in the 1930s, Reagan, JFK, Buchanan/Obama, Wilson, pikers all. This could be the big one of our lifetimes and many lifetimes after that. Or it could be a fizzle. Just another election. But the chances this is the big one, are… big. And that’s not normal and it is something to watch with awe.
Consider the implications of a Bernie Sanders win in Iowa today. That would mean the Democratic Party electorate in Iowa is gone full tilt kook. That’s our bias talking. Let’s put it another way to comply with our above edict, a Bernie Sanders win means the Democratic Party electorate in Iowa has gone far left as in 1972 with George McGovern and wants to take the national party with them – only further further left.
A Bernie Sanders win in Iowa will not be powered by an agrarian prairie fire revolt even though it is Iowa. A Bernie Sanders win is an Obama coalition victory of callow youth, identity totalitarians, and leftist world-views. It will be a class based, snooty, leftist, identity politics coup. A Bernie Sanders win will not be a prairie fire set to blaze by the working class of the majority white population. A Bernie Sanders win will be a triumph of the left contemptuous of the white working class.
For clarity of analysis we can all be thankful that Bernie Sanders chose not to attack Hillary Clinton on emails, Benghazi, personality, and such. Because of this (tactically foolish to our eyes) tactic on Sanders’ part a victory over Hillary Clinton will be a “clean” one based on the ideological composition of the leftist powers of the Obama Party.
If Bernie Sanders wins in Iowa, the chances of a nationwide Democratic Party realignment from the working class labor base into the situation comedy demographics identity politics of an Obama Coalition based party increase substantially. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire, and then all the Clinton firewalls face a prairie fire that can burn them all down.
Hillary Clinton? She’s run such a bizarre campaign, it’s not really a campaign but an embarrassment. A victory for Hillary in Iowa means survival, not much else.
On the Republican side, as in 1860, torches and pitchforks are arrayed in preparation for a revolutionary tournament.
The story is Donald J. Trump on the GOP side. As we’ve written before, Donald Trump represents the destruction of the Republican Party. That destruction became inevitable once Barack Obama destroyed the Democratic Party and reshaped it into such a warped creature that now the nonentity called Bernie Sanders appears ready for a victory in Iowa to be followed by a victory in New Hampshire which begins the fire which consumes the Clinton political history.
Again, as we have written before, Donald Trump can take over the Republican Party because Barack Obama chased out seniors, and the white working class, among others. These orphan populations headed to the cold environs of the Republican Party. Then Donald Trump came along and offered a warm home, with a welcoming hearth, some hot soup, and a promise to Make America Great Again and throw out Barack Obama and his circus troupe from their occupation of the White House.
If Donald Trump wins the Iowa Caucuses today, as we have written months ago, Donald Trump gets the nomination. That’s conventional wisdom now but not when we wrote it. Now here’s the kicker: If Donald Trump wins the Iowa Caucuses and the nomination, then the likelihood the Republican Party is irrevocably changed increases dramatically. We believe that will happen if Trump (1) wins the Iowa Caucuses; (2) wins the nomination; (3) wins the presidency. We think all three are very very likely to happen.
Can it happen? Will it happen? What is the best Trump can expect? What is the best Bernie Sanders can expect? What is the best Hillary Clinton can expect?
The best that Hillary Clinton can expect is a win of more than 10 points that flattens Bernie Sanders – which gives her momentum and lays to rest all the doubts we and many others have expressed with barely concealed contempt. Hillary should have packed this Bernie loon into the lake a long time ago. But she couldn’t because she believes she can get the kooks to like and vote for her. That is delusional. So for Hillary, a victory will be a win that destroys Sanders, but it won’t get her much other than a victory over a loon. Hillary has to realize her problem is not Sanders but Barack Obama. But Hillary is so wacked out she seems to think packaging herself as the Obama third term is a solution, not the problem it is.
Bernie Sanders needs a win. Nothing less. A loss of a quarter point won’t be worth a gallon of piss. Bernie Sanders needs a win. If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa, then he wins New Hampshire, then he loses less in the later primaries and his great fear becomes Barack Obama’s machinations to torpedo Sanders and Hillary and impose the Obama secret candidate to be revealed at the convention. Bernie Sanders needs a win. A big win for Sanders would be a Muskie moment for Hillary.
Donald Trump? Donald Trump does not need to win the Iowa Caucuses. But a loss, even a slight loss, makes his road a lot tougher, but not an impossible road to travel.
Can Trump win? We think so. We think Trump probably will win. In fact, we think that the Iowa surprise could be a big Donald Trump win. But it won’t matter. Trump just needs to win – even by a single vote.
Yes we think Trump will win the Iowa Caucuses. But, but, but, such is the unpredictable nature of the Iowa Caucuses that we cannot really figure out some basic equations. For instance, there is a storm headed towards Iowa tonight. We cannot say if a storm or bad weather in Iowa tonight, as the Iowa Caucuses begin, is good news or bad news for Trump or Sanders, or Clinton. The polls say the Trump, and oddly the Clinton supporters, not the Sanders’ supporters, are the most committed to their candidate. The polls also seem to imply that the Trump and Sanders campaigns are the ones that need many new voters to go to the caucuses. So does a Trump cheerleader hope for a storm thinking that the committed Trump voters will show up to vote no matter if Hell freezes over – or – does a Trump cheerleader hope for a lovely evening so that many Iowans who have never voted before leave their homes to Trump, Trump, Trump? Brit Hume who hates Trump is either setting up the expectations game or he really does think Trump has it in the bag:
Brit Hume: The polling suggests that Donald Trump does not need a big surge from first time voters. He is leading with those who describe themselves as mainstream Republicans, which means if all things are equal and we get a normal or perhaps an enlarged turnout, he’ll be fine. And if there is a huge surge of new voters, he does very well among them, he could win going away. I think this poll suggests it’s going to be tough for one of his challengers to overtake him.
We also cannot assess the impact of all the ads this weekend in Iowa. We’re not there. Donald Trump is being hammered by ads. But so are Rubio and Cruz and many others. Ads, ads, ads. Do they matter?
We also cannot assess the impact of the non-stop Fox News war against Trump this past week and weekend. Does any voter in Iowa believe Fox News and their subtle digs against Trump in matters great and small? We don’t think so, but we can’t make a real assessment because we are not in Iowa. We also do now know how the other campaigns will strategize and to whom they will give their support at the caucuses themselves in order to play “block Trump from victory”.
We do know that if Ted Cruz does not win Iowa his campaign is dead. There will be no comeback. Trump will inherit the Cruz voters quickly. We do know that if Huckabee and Santorum do not win in Iowa their campaigns are deader than the death state they are in already. We do know that if Ben Carson does not come in second his campaign will survive only until South Carolina, if that long.
We do know that the polls suggest that Trump is on top in Iowa. Today’s last poll continues to post Trump on top, but topples Hillary in favor of Saint Bernard. Has Bernie Sanders surged the little bit he needs to win? But if Bernie Sanders wins it means that all the millions Hillary spent in the Iowa field of dreams has become a nightmare. In that case Hillary will wish she followed our advice.
What is the best outcome for Trump from the Iowa Caucuses? First a big win. Second a Hillary loss. That might be exactly what happens.
For those that hate Donald Trump, we offer a few reasons to cheer him on. First, a Donald Trump win will be a victory of an inspirational, mass movement campaign of the people, over a technocratic data driven machine that thinks of people as an old IBM card to be folded, spindled, and mutilated (although the Trump campaign claims a well run ground game it prefers to keep secret). Second, a Donald Trump win will be a great victory in the war against Big Media corruption of our politics, in this case one which specifically targets Fox News and hopefully in the future monstrosities such as NBC, MSNBC, and the rest of the Big Media monsters. Big Media is the enemy.
We think Bernie Sanders will win tonight. We will find that a catastrophe but Hillary should have listened to us.
We think Trump will win. We will cheer him on. His campaign already has achieved so much. We’ll have an idea that Trump has won early if traffic picks up in Iowa streets and roads as the hour approaches. We’ll have an idea that Trump has won big if the turnout is indeed over 135,000. We think we will know all this rather early too, not past bedtime.
We think Trump has run a masterful campaign. In a sense, the primary ends tonight if Trump wins in tiny Iowa tonight because of Trump’s truly bold, well strategized, and well executed campaign. Trumps campaign ends tonight, we think, as it began – pitch perfect. Trump’s pitch perfect, final campaign ad for Iowa is really a general election ad:
If Trump wins tonight and Hillary loses, say “President Trump”.