#LeapDay #SuperMonday #SuperTuesday Preview For @RealDonaldTrump, #Hillary2016

It’s leap of faith day. Look out your political window anywhere in the United States today and you can see the massive cloud formations approach. Tomorrow, you will hear the crackle of lightning rending the heavens and the boom of thunder. SuperTuesday eve is here.

What’s going to happen? Hillary Clinton will score super big victories and Bernie Sanders will book at least one victory in his home state. Bernie Sanders never had a chance and we don’t believe Hillary will be the nominee either, not while Barack Obama has an alternative plan. Of course, if Sanders would quit tomorrow that would put the Obama plans in jeopardy. But Sanders will stay in the race, until the convention, when Barack Obama will take control.

As to the GOP, we can only quote that summer season musical band, The Beach Boys: “Fun, Fun, Fun.” It’s still Summer of Trump.



Before the storm breaks and it is back to the beach time on the political trail we must look at the astonishing news from today and the past weekend. Remember that Donald Trump “ceiling”, remember those “conservative” attacks against Trump, remember the “you can’t insult your way to the White House” critique?

Yesterday, in a massive rally in Alabama, the conservative godfather in the senate endorsed Donald J. Trump. The Sessions endorsement of Trump finishes off whatever claim Ted Cruz had against Trump.

Ted Cruz, and even Marco Rubio needed, had to win, South Carolina. The GOP establishment, the political establishment had to see Trump lose in South Carolina. Instead Trump won South Carolina then Nevada. After Nevada where Trump broke the 40% ceiling, the GOP establishment realized it had to go to war against Trump.

Now there are all sorts of rumors and facts frantically outracing each other. The New York Times published an article detailing the successful effort Marco Rubio made side by side with Chuck Schumer to get Fox News to support the Rubio/Schumer illegal immigration amnesty plan.

The New York Times also published an article this weekend which indicates Mitt Romney will try to enter the race in California or somewhere along with other half-baked plots:

Inside the Republican Party’s Desperate Mission to Stop Donald Trump [snip]

In public, there were calls for the party to unite behind a single candidate. In dozens of interviews, elected officials, political strategists and donors described a frantic, last-ditch campaign to block Mr. Trump — and the agonizing reasons that many of them have become convinced it will fail. Behind the scenes, a desperate mission to save the party sputtered and stalled at every turn. [snip]

At least two campaigns have drafted plans to overtake Mr. Trump in a brokered convention, and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has laid out a plan that would have lawmakers break with Mr. Trump explicitly in a general election.

Despite all the forces arrayed against Mr. Trump, the interviews show, the party has been gripped by a nearly incapacitating leadership vacuum and a paralytic sense of indecision and despair, as he has won smashing victories in South Carolina and Nevada. [snip]

Late last fall, the strategists Alex Castellanos and Gail Gitcho, both presidential campaign veterans, reached out to dozens of the party’s leading donors, including the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and the hedge-fund manager Paul Singer, with a plan to create a “super PAC” that would take down Mr. Trump. In a confidential memo, the strategists laid out the mission of a group they called “ProtectUS.” [snip]

Two of Mr. Trump’s opponents have openly acknowledged that they may have to wrest the Republican nomination from him in a deadlocked convention. [snip]

“There’s this desire, verging on panic, to consolidate the field,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a former supporter of Mr. Bush. “But I don’t see any movement at all.” [snip]

Mr. Romney had been eager to tilt the race, and even called Mr. Christie after he ended his campaign to vent about Mr. Trump and say he must be stopped. On the night of the primary, Mr. Romney was close to endorsing Mr. Rubio himself, people familiar with his deliberations said.

Yet Mr. Romney pulled back, instead telling advisers that he would take on Mr. Trump directly. [snip]

Mr. Romney is expected to withhold his support before the voting this week on the so-called Super Tuesday, but some of his allies have urged him to endorse Mr. Rubio before Michigan and Idaho vote March 8. Mr. Romney grew up in Michigan, and many Idahoans are fellow Mormons.

You know you’re digging your own burial plot when you depend on Mitt Romney to successfully implement your political plots. As we wrote before the debate, Romney and Rubio, along with “consistent conservative” Cruz, assailed Trump at that debate in a concerted, coordinated attack.

At the debate many Stop Trump loons believed Donald J. Trump had been mortally wounded. The personal and business history attacks against Trump, the Stop Trumpers believed, hurt Trump and had to be continued. To that end, Marco Rubio began a comedy tour with spicy attacks of a personal and business nature against Trump. Big Media howled with laughter and many said Trump could not survive the ridicule. Ted Cruz disappeared and that undermined the strategy to Stop Trump, but the stupid Stop Trumpers could not help but laugh and enjoy themselves as they tried to insult their way to the White House.

For Ted Cruz the news has been dire as his campaign implodes and he increasingly disappears all the while pinning all his hopes on a home state win. Meanwhile, Cruz supporters are turning to Trump:

Ted Cruz’s man in the U.S. territories has decided to support Donald Trump, he told POLITICO on Sunday.

Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based GOP operative who spent several weeks organizing the U.S. territories for Cruz, including Guam, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands, said he is supporting Trump because he sees him as more electable.

“I respect Sen. Cruz immensely, I just believe at this point, Mr. Trump is better-positioned, because of his stance on trade, to put Democrats on the defensive in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and ensure that Republicans win again,” he said.

Those remarks come as Cruz and the rest of the GOP field grapple with a front-runner who appears to be putting potentially insurmountable distance between himself and his rivals. Earlier Sunday, Trump notched the support of Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, whom Cruz had counted as an ally.

Today, little Marco Rubio, said he was off his comedy tour because the issues facing the country are too serious. Seriously, little Marco? Why is Rubio off the comedy tour? What news has slammed Rubio off his high heels? A poll.

A new CNN national poll released today:

On the Republican side, the new survey finds Trump’s lead is dominant, and his support tops that of his four remaining opponents combined. The businessman tops his nearest competitor by more than 30 points: 49% back Trump, 16% Marco Rubio, 15% Ted Cruz, 10% Ben Carson and 6% John Kasich.

Trump’s supporters are incredibly enthusiastic about the coming election, and largely committed in their support for him. Nearly 8 in 10 say that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections, among Republicans who are not supporting Trump, just 39% say they are more enthusiastic than in years past. Likewise, 78% of Trump’s backers say they will definitely support him vs. 22% who say they could still change their minds. Among those backing other candidates, 57% say they are committed to their chosen candidate.

Yeah, you read that right: Donald Trump now has more support than all his Republican rivals combined, says new poll.

In New York, rumors are flying via a credible source:

Hillary could lose to Trump in Democratic New York

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

“There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign,’’ one of the state’s most prominent Democrats said.

Most of the polling didn’t address the possibility that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an independent, but some of it did — and found the former mayor took “significant’’ votes away from Clinton in heavily Democratic New York City and the surrounding suburbs, a source familiar with the data said.

The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was “surprisingly strong’’ in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

Can Trump win New York? That’s a question for another day but it certainly undermines the “Stop Trump” losers. What matters now is SuperTuesday. So what is going to happen on SuperTuesday? Ronald Brownstein who has derided Trump from the moment he announced, has an idea:

Trump Is Winning a Two-Front War

His strength in states that represent different elements of the GOP coalition shows his uniqueness as a candidate—and the challenge he presents for his rivals. [snip]

On one side, Trump could deal a crushing blow to Cruz, the Texas senator, across a series of Southern and Border States, from Alabama and Arkansas to Tennessee and Oklahoma, that are dominated by evangelical and blue-collar voters.

On the other front, polls show Trump leading in mostly white-collar, far less evangelical states including Vermont, Massachusetts, and Virginia that should be crucial building blocks for Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich, the candidates relying most on mainstream conservative voters.

Trump’s strength in states that represent such divergent poles of the GOP coalition testifies to his unique assets as a candidate—and the challenge he presents for his rivals. If Trump can beat Cruz next week in heavily blue-collar and evangelical states on one side, and top Kasich and Rubio in white collar, less culturally conservative states on the other, it will grow increasingly daunting for any candidate to coalesce a coalition large enough to stop the front-runner. That prospect may help explain the urgency with which Rubio and Cruz assailed Trump at Thursday night’s debate.

It’s almost impossible to win a two front war. But that is exactly what Donald Trump is doing. It’s like a massive snowstorm on a ninety degree summer day:

“In Trump you’ve got a candidate who appears to be able to take on Cruz among Cruz’ strength voters, who are evangelicals and also to take on Kasich and Marco among more mainstream voters,” says Neil Newhouse, the chief pollster in 2012 for Mitt Romney. “That is going to make him tough to beat.”

John Brabender, the chief strategist for Rick Santorum’s campaign in 2012, adds:

“It speaks to the complexity of Donald Trump. I saw a poll out today, which had him leading in Texas, one leading in Florida, and one leading in Massachusetts. There’s an absurdity in that. You should not have a presidential candidate leading in all three of those states because the voting universes are so different.”

It’s leap of faith day. On the storm-cloud-on-the-horizon-filled last day of February, it’s still Summer of Trump. On March 1, surf’s up.



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South Carolina Primary Results And #DemDebate Weekend Before #SuperTuesday

Update: Hillary Clinton looked great last night. As Hillary approached the stage she smiled broadly and looked like the fighter and candidate many fondly remember from 2008. That’s what a mega-victory and the prospect of more victories on SuperTuesday will do for you.

More importantly Hillary Clinton did what none of the Republican candidates have been able to do vis-a-vis Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton declared a competing vision for the country. Hillary also came up with a great retort to Donald Trump’s message “Make America Great Again”:

Clinton calls for ‘love and kindness’ in SC victory speech [snip]

“Despite what you hear, we don’t need to make America great again — America hasn’t stopped being great. But we do need to make America whole again,” she said Saturday in South Carolina, mocking Trump’s campaign slogan.

Instead of building walls, we need to be tearing down barriers. We need to show, by everything we do, that we really are in this together.”

The former secretary of State appeared passionate as she worked to rally her supporters with an optimistic message, likely looking to counter Trump’s tone. She called for “more love and kindness” while working the crowd of supporters into cheers.

Democrats, Republicans, independents, everyone should be grateful to Hillary Clinton for this moment of clarity. What Hillary Clinton managed to do on her victory night was to cement the issue that will decide the presidency in 2016.

On the one hand we will have the “more love and kindness” campaign, “Make America Whole Again”. On the other side we will hear Donald J. Trump say there is no more time for business as usual – it’s time for a change – “nice” won’t do it.

That’s the dividing line in 2016.

Is it time for a change? Or do we want more of the same?

What Bernie Sanders demonstrates in 2016 is that the so-called “Obama Coalition” which we correctly analyze as more representative of what television network programmers want – a “Situation Comedy” demographic is split. The white young ‘uns are all gone Bernie (look at the results even in blowout South Carolina) and the African-American vote is back with the formerly “racist” Hillary even in South Carolina.

African-American voters want what few other groups in the country want:

Eighty-eight percent of black voters said they want the next president to continue Obama’s policies, a strong support group for Clinton.

As we explained in 2013’s “Muddled Message Mess”, this is a “CHANGE” election. It’s impossible to be the “change” agent and the “stay the course” candidate simultaneously.

As to “love and kindness”, that was the Jeb Bush campaignI will take nothing and no one for granted. I will run with heart.

Jeb Bush ran “with heart” and got run over by a truck, then a train, then a plane. Jeb Bush was not the “change” candidate:

The entire premise of Bush’s candidacy now looks like a misread of an electorate that wasn’t amenable to establishment candidates—and a misunderstanding of a modern media environment ill-suited to a policy wonk who speaks in paragraphs, not punchy sound bites. He couldn’t sell experience to an electorate that wanted emotion. He couldn’t escape his last name.

A “whole” America, or a “great” America? That’s the 2016 campaign. Thank Hillary for that moment of clarity.

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Hillary Clinton looked genuinely happy for the first time this election season immediately after her Nevada caucus win. Tonight Hillary Clinton will also be happy as she racks up a win in South Carolina.

The question will be “how big a win?”

This SuperTuesday Ted Cruz will face the same question. A blowout win by Ted Cruz of over 50% of the vote would help him emerge as a truly solid big time winner even though it is his home state. A ten point win in the home state would be nice although not particularly impressive. A “win” in the single digits, well below 50%”, will be the equivalent of a hospital patient whose organs are failing, at the last moment placed in an iron lung, to keep the body going after the spirit has departed.

Ted Cruz needed a big win in South Carolina too. South Carolina is the “doorway to the South” and if Ted Cruz could have won there SuperTuesday would have held possibilities to not only survive, but win.

Tonight, Hillary Clinton will win South Carolina. A blowout win of 30 points will pierce the heart of the Bernie Sanders campaign. The Sanders campaign lied to itself and its supporters that Sanders really truly did have a chance to be the party nominee and increasingly they believed it more and more. But it was always a delusion.

The Bernie Sanders campaign did not fool itself however with certain of its campaign assumptions. They knew that the more early wins they scored would help them endure the more difficult period in South Carolina and the South.

Sanders probably won the majority of votes in Iowa although the party will hide the vote totals until they are irrelevant to the race. The headline was that Hillary2016 “won” and that was enough. Then Bernie Sanders scored an impressive win in New Hampshire and a small defeat in Nevada. Now comes the defeat in South Carolina and further defeats in the South.

All the Sanders campaign has to do is survive. Unlike the cadaverous Ted Cruz and the puny Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders has victories to come in primaries and caucuses. Obviously in Vermont Bernie Sanders will win. Unlike Ted Cruz in his home state, Bernie Sanders in his home state of Vermont scores a stunning 75 points margin ahead of Hillary. Sanders might also win in Massachusetts and in assorted other states.

But the key point to remember is that Bernie Sanders only has to survive and he will advance. In every election Bernie Sanders will get delegates. In every election Bernie Sanders will get national debate time on national television. That’s Bernie Sanders’ “trump” card so it speak. Because of the proportional allocation of delegates Bernie Sanders has an incentive to stay in and proselytize.

Bernie Sanders really has little to lose, if anything. He was never a real contender for the nomination. In his entire career in public life it is all about talk talk talk never really doing anything. For Bernie Sanders the race is the victory.

The South Carolina primary will be mostly useful for comparison purposes. This is another contest we can compare the outcomes in voter participation rates between the two parties. It will also help us see the lay of the land for the general election. For instance, on SuperTuesday, Massachusetts will be a window for the general election:

Donald Trump is poised to romp across the South on Super Tuesday, cementing a hold on the Republican presidential nomination. But it’s little-watched and deeply liberal Massachusetts that’s sending shivers down Democrats’ spines.

Massachusetts, they fear, is where Trump could chart a course to the White House.

The state — the largest non-Southern prize on the GOP calendar next week — is packed with the independent, blue-collar voters that will decide key general election states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. And if Trump can trounce his Republicans rivals by pulling in those voters in Massachusetts on Tuesday, Democrats are afraid he could do the same to them nationwide in November.

“It’d be like the canary in the coal mine,” said Doug Rubin, a Democratic strategist who helped steer Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren to statewide victories in Massachusetts. “If Trump is able to convince a lot of moderate-to-conservative independents to vote in the primary and he does really well here, that would be a warning sign for Democrats going forward.” [snip]

If he can do something big in Massachusetts and do something with people who don’t normally come out at all, if they come out for Trump, it says something enormous about the country,” added Sean Curran, a longtime Democratic fundraiser. “This is a bellwether for states that tend to be purple, if not blue, that there is some kind of vitality to his candidacy there for a general election. It would be a very, very unnerving thing.”

Tonight’s South Carolina vote won’t mean much in the Sanders v. Clinton match. Hillary wins South Carolina and all the SuperTuesday states except for Vermont. But for comparison purposes, as in Massachusetts, South Carolina is worth watching. We’ll be watching.

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@RealDonaldTrump Soars At #GOPDebate – Rubio, Cruz, Kasich Rearrange Deck Chairs, Reshuffle Cards

Our pre-debate article once again was right on target. The GOP debate was all about tactics. Ted Cruz, the man who sells himself as the big conservative dog, tactically allied himself with illegal immigration amnesty shill and toy poodle Marco Rubio, to bark at Donald Trump. [Check out this picture.] As we suspected in our pre-debate article, the GOP debate was a big misfire for Ted Cruz.

The take down Trump tactics we had earlier predicted came in one by one. The audience was stacked with a Bush boo crowd. Mitt Romney’s coordinated attack with Rubio came in just as predicted and Rubio answered exactly as we said he would by declaring he would release his taxes almost immediately. Also as easily predictable, Trump counterattacked. As predicted, desperate Cruz and Rubio played little boy “king of the hill” games. But as we wondered before the debate, could any of these tactical decisions help this late in the game, or even backfire? Let’s look at the tactics and see how they worked post debate as we predicted pre-debate.

* * * * * *

In order to take down Trump, debate performances against Trump have to be followed with electoral success results by the opposition candidates. But Donald J. Trump is poised for victory in many states on Super Tuesday, with the sole exception being Texas. Does anyone think Donald Trump will lose anything other than maybe Texas, even after the Texas debate? Well, during the debate the Stop Trump idiots went full idiot. Here’s an example from someone who usually knows better but went full stupid as the dogs yapped and chased the train:

What Mario just did to the Donald is illegal in 28 states. I have to give it to the Robot: When Robots go berserk, they can do a tremendous amount of damage, and Rubio the Robot just went into Terminator mode.

He had people laughing at Trump. [snip]

Of course, it’s pretty obvious now that Cruz and Rubio agreed beforehand to double-team Trump. [snip]

The Champ had a glass jaw all along. The key, it turns out, was that you just couldn’t have one guy punching at it. [snip]

Further Thoughts: Oh boy trump is doing terribly, and I didn’t want to see him do terribly. I kinda like Trump, in a weird way.

But he is getting destroyed, and he just wasn’t prepared for it. (Being unprepared is kind of His Thing.)

It’s embarrassing.

This is a gamechanger.

The whole race is now reset.

That type of “analysis” is what comes from not thinking of what is going to happen beforehand, lack simple campaign mechanical knowledge, be unaware there are targeted goals, ignore whether the targeted goals have been achieved, or liquor. After the nonsense above which we have mercifully edited to not include even more embarrassing “analysis” Emily/Ace of Spades sobered up and said “never mind”:

Update: Drew convinced me in the podcast I was way overstating things with the claims that the “race is reset.” Eh, at the moment, it seemed like a big deal.

I still think it’s a big deal, but Trump’s leads in 10 of the 11 Super Tuesday states it’s hard to imagine him losing anywhere.

My dream scenario is this: Trump finally starts going after Rubio, on immigration and amnesty, badly hurts Rubio (as Cruz was badly hurt the last couple of weeks), but Trump himself is also hurt by this performance, and My Man Ted sneaks up in the polls.

The stupidity of the “dream scenario” and the tactical decisions finally made by Cruz and Rubio are demonstrated with great clarity by simply looking at the calendar. Yes, try looking at the calendar before you write stupid stuff or dream dreams of conquest.

The political calendar shows that the biggest opportunity to Stop Trump, a very small opportunity which adds up to zero, is for Ted Cruz to at least win in Texas on SuperTuesday and prevent Donald Trump from a complete and total sweep of the SuperTuesday states (which we remind you once were the Cruz supposed path to victory). In order to Stop Trump, Ted Cruz needs to win with more than 50% of the vote and make Texas a winner take all result then have Rubio beat a staggering Trump in Florida two weeks later.

At a minimum Cruz needs to win Texas, preferably in a blow out win of more than ten points. Less than a 50% victory and Trump gets to share in the big Texas delegate distribution and continue to pile more chips into his win bag. To make this very very clear to the drunk or the plain idiotic to even have a chance to Stop Trump, the results of the Texas debate had to be a bolstering of Cruz so that he could win a ten point or more victory in Texas on SuperTuesday. Yeah, to have a chance to Stop Trump, it was necessary for Ted Cruz to emerge as the victor of the Texas debate. Instead, the Stop Trump hero of the day is Marco Rubio. Rubio is once again the “surge” candidate against Trump that will once again go nowhere.

Marco Rubio does not have a chance of winning any election until March 15, at best. Rubio cannot afford a Trump win in Texas and complete sweep of SuperTuesday elections. A bolstered SuperTuesday SuperStrongTrump means the race is over and Rubio cannot win Florida or anywhere. The latest polls have Rubio well behind Trump in Florida as they have for months (Trump 44% to Rubio 25%; head to head Trump 52% – Rubio 38%). So the notion that Rubio is the big winner from the Texas debate for the Stop Trump goofballs, makes a mockery of them. Think of it this way: America needs a big victory against ISIS and therefore attacks Guatemala – Guatemala is quickly overrun and America gets a big victory – but has ISIS been hurt at all? No.

By the end of the debate in Texas, Ted Cruz had almost disappeared. It was a yapping Rubio that got the headlines. How does this Stop Trump?

Hey, Stop Trump fellas, you do realize that last night was a big win for Trump right?

Last night Donald J. Trump continued to soar towards his targets, bomb bays full, ready to annihilate. What did the other candidates accomplish?

While Donald J. Trump continued to soar towards his targets on SuperTuesday and the general election, the other candidates moved the deck chairs on the poop deck. Trump took the bag of casino chips while the other candidates reshuffled the deck of cards.

Consider, we do think Kasich did well last night. Kasich did not sound like a total loon as he karate chops his way through debates. Illegal immigration amnesty shill Marco Rubio maybe got Kasich some votes but not enough to win anywhere. Some cards might have been reshuffled to Kasich, maybe some to Rubio, but TRUMP HOLDS THE TRUMP CARD. After the debate, John Kasich on CNN declared that he thought Trump would win all the SuperTuesday elections.

Megyn Kelly and most of Big Media swooned over Ruby-o’s performance. What passes for the conservative movement sang songs of love for Cruz. The problem for the Stop Trump people is that Trump lost zero support. If anything, Trump solidified his support, as firewalls continued to burn:

The “southern firewall” Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign has been building for months appears to be crumbling under the weight of Donald Trump’s staying power and Marco Rubio’s resurgence.

The Cruz campaign told Yellowhammer Wednesday night they are pulling out of the Presidential Forum set to be held at Samford University in Birmingham on Saturday, and will not be holding any other events in Alabama ahead of election day. Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign, however, reiterated their commitment to the event.

The move is one of the most open indicators to date that Cruz has failed to pick up steam in the Bible Belt South, once believed to be his geographic stronghold and his most likely path to the nomination.

It was a magnificent show. And Trump was without doubt the star of the show. Like a young lion king Trump romped while his Rubio jester joked, and envious courtier Cruz jealously plotted and denounced the heavens for making him a humpback, not the one with the crown.

What did we see last night? We saw two yapping dogs barking at the Trump plane as it soared overhead, bomb bays full, ready to silence the yapping dogs.

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The “No Substance” Loser’s #GOPDebate Tonight As Bush, Romney, Conspire To Stop @RealDonaldTrump

Update: As we write below, this will be a substance-less debate. It won’t even be Taxmageddon stuff. Our contribution to the substance-less debate (even though our information has substance because there is statistical/historical data to show it matters) is height. When we wrote Trump Towers we were not writing about height. Tonight, once again, Trump towers over the field. Trump is the tallest candidate on stage. Order of height is Trump, Carson, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio. Tallest candidate usually becomes president.

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Tonight is a loser’s debate to try to Stop Trump in Texas. The important “gladiator” blood drenched debate already happened before the South Carolina primary. There will be no substance tonight. It’s all about tactics. It’s all about how to stop Trump.

There will be no substance at tonight’s #GOPDebate. That does not mean it will be dull. The entertainment factor will be high. The traps against Donald J. Trump have been laid in public already. It will be fun to watch as the traps either catch Trump or Trump’s loser opponents. We’re betting on Trump hop and skipping over the traps then using the traps to ensnare the dopes.

First, why do we say this will be a substance-less debate? We know there won’t be substance tonight because it is long past substance. It is now a time to kill.

In any war you first have the strategic political/ideological/racial/geographic/territorial/egotistical justification(s) for war laid out. Then you go to war. Once you are at war it’s kill or be killed. It’s all about tactics now.

Once America and Japan went to war there was no need for soldiers in the battlefield to discuss the merits of their respective political systems and war aims as they loaded their guns and prepared to take territory. It was all simple: Kill or be killed.

That’s why tonight there will be talk, talk, talk, and blah, blah, blah, on substance, but the substance will be a tactic. Tonight, it is all about tactics. Trump’s GOP opponents are not too smart so the tactics against Trump reflect the same lack of intelligence. Now, let’s look at the tactical landscape for tonight’s GOP Debate in Texas.

Idiot tactic #1: The Bush clan will be in the debate audience tonight. This will be a replay of the “stack the audience” against Trump tactic we have seen in every debate. The Bush clan in the Texas GOP debate tonight will try to bring down Trump with their very presence and be the booing section against Trump. But the dunce son already lost. Fredo has left the building. This tactic won’t work and it is possible that Trump will attack the audience again, if necessary. It will be a vivid “outsider” versus “establishment” demonstration.

Idiot tactic #2: If you mention the word “idiot,” the face of Mitt Romney immediately pops to mind. Yesterday Mitt Romney tried to stack the deck against Trump. Romney was on the Cavuto show and claimed there was a “bombshell” in Trump’s tax returns and that is why Trump won’t release them. Romney’s attack was an attempt to help Marco Rubio tonight.

Romney wants the tax return question asked tonight to Trump. Romney knows that Rubio will release his tax returns soon and tonight Rubio will either announce the release of his tax returns or announce when he will release his tax returns. It’s all a set-up. The moderators will ask Trump about his tax returns and then Rubio will say “I’m releasing my tax returns and I call on Trump and Cruz and everyone else to release their tax returns as I lead the way.” It’s so obvious and silly, it’s hardly worth a mention except that we giggle every time we think of what Trump will do with this silly attack.

Mitt Romney’s shameful attack on Trump, suggesting there is something like a “bombshell” in them is exactly the slimy attack Harry Reid carried out against Romney in 2012. Romney, who dared not attack Obama, now dares attack Trump with unreserved vitriol and lies. The GOP establishment that enabled Obama and call Obama “nice” goes all out war against the GOP frontrunner!!! Does Harry Reid applaud his fellow Mormon, dumbass Romney, taking a play from his book of slime? No, Reid mocks idiot Romney:

Harry Reid spent months attacking Mitt Romney in 2012 for not releasing his tax returns. Now the Democratic leader is at it again, after Romney suggested this week there could be a “bombshell” in Donald Trump’s tax returns.

An incredulous Reid mocked Romney’s statements about Trump’s taxes when the Nevadan was asked about them on Thursday.

Ha, ha. (Romney) never gave us his tax returns. Who was the brainchild that got him to do that?” Reid said at a news conference.”He gave us a summary. He never gave us his tax returns.

Romney’s “bombshell” remark mirrored Reid’s repeated claims four years ago that an anonymous source told him that Romney hadn’t paid taxes for 10 years.

But could there be a bombshell in Trump’s tax returns? Reid wouldn’t say.

“All I know is, I can’t imagine Romney having the gall coming out (and calling) for anybody’s tax returns,” Reid said.

Will Donald Trump call for an investigation by the federal government to find out if Mitt Romney has violated IRS privacy laws? Will Donald Trump laugh at Romney and note that Rubio and Cruz have not released their tax returns. Will Donald Trump demand that Mitt Romney release his own tax returns? Will Donald Trump mock Rubio’s many debts? Will Donald Trump denounce the other candidates whose entire fortunes are based on their government service, not the private sector fortune built by the Trump family? Will very very rich and proud Donald Trump attack “tax and spend” establishment goopers and declare proudly he and every American do their utmost to pay as few taxes as possible? Trump has a lot of options. It will be entertaining to see which knife Trump pulls.

The two tactics above are but a trifle. Let’s examine the tactical decisions by all the candidates.

Trump’s tactical options are simple. Attack or just play defense? We suspect Trump will play it nice but counterattack ferociously all night long as he is attacked.

Who will attack Trump? Cruz has to attack Trump. Cruz has to win Texas. Cruz needed to win South Carolina in order to build momentum for his planned sweep of the southern primaries. But Cruz is a loser and now Cruz is fighting for his very life against a very real potential Trump victory in Texas. Cruz has other worries.

Cruz wants to level all his attacks against Trump. Logic dictates that Marco Rubio also wants to level all his attacks against Trump because Rubio is so far behind Trump even in Florida. But Rubio cannot afford to have Cruz score another victory against Trump. Cruz argues that he is the only one that has beaten Trump. A victory in Texas will solidify Cruz’s “only I can beat Trump” bombast.

So, if you were Rubio’s tactical adviser what would you advise? Should Rubio only attack Trump alongside Cruz? Should Rubio only attack Cruz alongside Trump (even though this probably helps Trump more than Rubio)? Should Rubio attack Trump a little bit and Cruz a lot? Should Cruz attack Cruz a lot and Trump a little bit? Lots of decisions for Rubio which might blow one of his circuits.

Or should Rubio be more worried about John Kasich? Rubio needs Kasich to get out so maybe Rubio should only attack Kasich and let Cruz beat up Trump and Trump beat up Cruz.

What about Carson? Should Carson clip his fingernails? Or should Carson help Trump? Should Carson attack Cruz to get back at Cruz for the dirty trick Cruz played against Carson in Iowa? Should Carson attack Rubio to help himself in Florida? Should Carson help Kasich to hurt Rubio? Should Carson side with the outsider Trump?

It’s all about tactics tonight. It’s a bunch of silly boys playing “king of the hill” against a guy with a bazooka and a tank filled with grenades. Mess with the wizard, the mighty bull and you get the horns.

The only danger to Trump? The co-hosts of the debate tonight are Telemundo and Salem Media – the illegal immigration amnesty shills who hate Trump and the American working class. 8:30 tonight. CNN.

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@RealDonaldTrump At Hogwarts

Like the main dining hall at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, Donald J. Trump has no ceiling. When there is a ceiling, it’s rather enchanted.

Before the Nevada caucuses many tried to place a ceiling as Trump Towers. But the notion that Trump has a ceiling has been effectively debunked even before the Nevada Trumpnado blew the roof off:

Four Problems With the ‘Winnowing’ Theory of Trump’s Downfall
For months, establishment Republicans have envisioned the billionaire losing support as the presidential field narrows. [snip]

The theory is that Trump, who notched his second consecutive primary victory on Saturday, is a factional candidate with a “hard ceiling” of support limited to the one-third of the party. While that has propelled him to victory in crowded field in New Hampshire and South Carolina, if other candidates quit, argue some anti-Trump conservatives, those voters will consolidate behind an alternative and soundly defeat the blustery billionaire for the nomination.

Trump, however, bristled at that argument during his victory speech Saturday night. [snip]

Trump has a point, and a close examination of Republican voter data shows that the “winnowing” theory has four serious flaws.
1. It’s unclear Trump loses a three-person race [snip]
2. Trump’s ‘hard ceiling’ is overrated [snip]
3. Trump’s support is broad-based in the party [snip]
4. ‘Second choice’ votes aren’t all anti-Trump [snip]

Our regular readers know the Trump “ceiling” theory was always a crafty attempt to demean and derail the #TrumpTrain. After Nevada, the whole world knows it. In September of last year, we expounded on our theory that candidates such as Ben Carson were a therapeutic half-way house for voters on the way to vote for Trump (“For GOP voters that hate the Republican establishment but don’t like Donald Trump’s style or are not 100% sold on The Donald, they are for now parked in the Ben Carson lot but eventually they will find themselves in the Trump camp.“). Once again, our theory trumps their theory. Trump Towers above the field and now most GOP voters understand that fact, if not yet all are willing to accept it.

It’s easy now, after Nevada, to write what we wrote months ago, a few short weeks after Trump’s announcement of his candidacy. Today, the level of acceptance that Trump will be the GOP nominee is pretty much the norm:

“We’re going to do it and it’s going to happen fast,” Donald Trump said at his victory party on Tuesday night, at the Treasure Island Hotel, in Las Vegas, after winning the Nevada caucus by a large margin. [snip]

The only state where he’s not leading in the polls is Texas, Ted Cruz’s home state, and he’s catching up there. Trump mentioned his leads in Michigan, the biggest of the states voting on March 8th; in Florida, Marco Rubio’s state (“We love Florida”), which votes on March 15th; and Ohio, John Kasich’s state (“It’s always nice to be beating the governor”), which is also voting on March 15th. “It’s going to be an amazing two months,” Trump said. “We might not even need the two months, folks, to be honest.” That is an honest statement, by Trump’s standards or anyone’s.

There were other accurate things that Trump said in his victory speech. “Tonight we had forty-five, forty six per cent.” The counting, when he spoke, was in the early stages, but he turned out to be just about right—he got 45.9 per cent—with Rubio at 23.9 per cent and Cruz at 21.4, the same order as in South Carolina. (Ben Carson got five per cent, and Kasich, the object of many moderate fantasies, about three.) Trump did even better with moderates than with those voters who said that they were very conservative, though he won both groups, according to exit polls. Trump continued, “And tomorrow you’ll be hearing, You know, if they could just take the other candidates and add ’em up, and if you could add ’em up. Because you know, the other candidates amount to fifty-five per cent.” At that, Trump’s sons, Eric and Donald, Jr., who were flanking him, shook their heads and smiled at the delusions of the commentators. (Fair enough.) “They keep forgetting, that when people drop out, we’re going to get a lot of votes,” Trump said, and he was, again, probably right. [snip]

Trump also had a point about the breadth of his victory, if one that he pushed too far. “We won the evangelicals, we won with young, we won with old, we won with highly educated, we won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated!” he said, with a theatrical shrug. He added that he had won “with the smartest people, with the most loyal people”—whether those qualities were meant to be in opposition wasn’t clear—“and you know what I really am happy about? Because I’ve been saying it for a long time, Forty-six per cent with the Hispanics, forty-six per cent, number one with Hispanics!”

Hispanics! Trump wins Hispanics against Hispanic Ted Cruz? Houston, Ted Cruz has a problem. Trump wins Hispanics against Hispanic Marco Rubio? Florida, Rubio’s got a problem. As to the rest of that article, Hillary supporters from 2008 will appreciate how that New Yorker article sneers against those who sneer at Trump from a class snobbism, even as the article cites “Trump’s bitter populism”. The snobs who mock the snobs don’t even recognize they are snobs themselves – and that is one big reason why Trump wins.

After Nevada there will be a CNN GOP debate on Thursday night. Then on Tuesday, well, it’s Super Tuesday when many states will vote. Trump is up on the polls just about everywhere. In many of the SuperTuesday states Donald Trump is already in double digit leads. Only in Texas is the poll picture not perfection for Trump.

Donald Trump does not have to win Texas nor even come in very close to the top spot. But if Trump beats Ted Cruz in Texas, Ted Cruz is cooked. The latest Texas poll indicates a salacious three way tie:

With less than a week until the Texas GOP pres­i­den­tial pri­mary, Sen­a­tor Ted Cruz is edg­ing out his two chief rivals, with Cruz hav­ing 29% of the vote fol­lowed by Don­ald Trump at 28% and Marco Rubio at 25%, accord­ing to an Emer­son Col­lege track­ing poll released today. Ohio’s John Kasich is at 9%, and retired neu­ro­sur­geon Ben Car­son comes in fifth, with 4%.

Tight as a tick on a lemon scented buttock. Trump at 28%, Cruz at 29%, and we’ve yet to see the impact of the Nevada results. If Trump comes even close in the Cruz home state, Cruz is cooked and served up in the Hogwarts dining hall.

Ted Cruz needs a blow-out victory in Texas and at least a victory somewhere else if only to survive. Marco Rubio needs a victory at some point too, somewhere, or his entire candidacy is a fantasy story found in The Tales of Beedle the Bard.

Donald Trump is performing electoral magic. Maybe, just maybe, it’s not over for America. Maybe, we can Make America Great Again.

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Trump Towers

Update: Party party time! Viva Las Vegas with the Hotgas rebel army and the nearly blown up HotAir Death Star! We’re all watching tonight.

Nationally, Donald J. Trump is a rising rocket man as Reuter’s tracking poll pegs him at over 41% and not a single opponent breaks the 20% threshold we discuss in our main article. A victory tonight in Nevada will help Trump enormously and might be a deadly precursor to that 20% limbo line in many states.

Tomorrow we can compare and contrast the Dem results in Nevada with the GOP results from tonight. Trump should win Nevada easily but corruption in Harry Reid’s state is not unknown or infrequent. Lots of opportunities for a stolen election in Nevada ladies and gents.

Still, caveats aside, if Trump wins Nevada… Trump towers.



———————————–

On September 8, 2015, before anyone else, while others mocked Donald J. Trump, we suspected Trump might have the GOP nomination locked up:

The hostile takeover will be complete.

Are we premature? Is it too early to declare the very real, very authentic Donald J. Trump the winner before one vote has been cast? The latest polls convince us that it is not too early but rather too late to stop Trump. [snip]

We do so because the political establishment in general and the GOP establishment in particular held one, er, trump card to play against Donald J. Trump. What was that, um, trump card? It was electability. It was always about electability.

The establishment attacks against Donald J. Trump failed. The “Trump is no conservative” attack failed. The “Trump is unpopular” attack failed. The “Trump can’t win without Hispanic support” attack failed. The “Trump can’t win without women” attack failed. The “Trump is not a serious candidate” attack failed. The “Trump won’t run” attack failed. The “Trump won’t disclose his finances” attack failed. The “Trump will blow himself up” attack failed. The “Trump can’t win the war against Fox News” attack failed. The “Trump won’t sign a loyalty oath we designed to block him” attack failed. The “Trump has no positions” attack failed. The “Trump positions are ridiculous” attack failed. The “Trump raped his wife” attack failed. The “Trump has no organization” attack failed. The “Trump won’t spend money” attack failed. The “Trump is a billionaire” attack failed. The “Trump is too rich to understand non-rich people” attack failed. The “Trump wants to raise taxes” attack failed. The “Trump is a clown” attack failed. The “Trump supporters are clowns” attack failed. The “Trump insulted McCain” attack failed. The “Trump insulted veterans” attack failed. The “Trump is mean” attack failed. The “Trump has a bad tone” attack failed. The “Trump is not nice” attack failed. The “Trump won’t stay in the race” attack failed. The “Trump supporters are not registered to vote” attack failed. The “Trump is a racist” attempt failed. The “Trump will weaken” attacks failed.

Every establishment attack against Donald J. Trump failed. But the “electability” argument remained and it had the strongest bite from the establishment snakes.

The “electability” argument was “yeah, but he can’t win.”

New Hampshire and South Carolina prove Trump can win and does win. The firewalls to stop the Trump prairie fire have burned down. The GOP establishment firewall is still ablaze.

In less than a month, Trump will be the undisputed GOP nominee.

Consider the immediate future. This Tuesday Nevada votes in caucus mode; next Tuesday a near dozen states vote. Will Trump win?

Before we look at the polls, let’s quickly remember the three top GOP rules that rule the race. As we explained last year, all these rules were designed to fix the race for Jeb Bush and now all these rules pave the way for Trump.

Recall that Jeb Bush was supposed to clear the field with his hundred million dollar haul for his SuperPac. Along with the Bush name and Bush organization the calendar was set to fix the primaries for another Bush.

First, the early states that Bush had a chance to lose remained states in which the delegates were proportionately allocated. Bush could lose Iowa and New Hampshire, but like other GOP establishment candidates he would be rescued by South Carolina.

Then after South Carolina, with all the momentum pushing him onward, Jeb could quickly win in Nevada which was to vote three days after South Carolina. Jeb could then go into the Super Tuesday elections with a head of steam and win at least some of the states and continue to proportionately gather delegates.

Finally, the coup de grace would be Florida which Jeb Bush was sure to win. Florida was made a winner take all state and the nomination would be secure for Jeb.

But Trump.

Instead of the runway set for Jeb Bush ascension, it is Trump’s Jet poised for take off.

Now, return to the rules in the wake of the Bush collapse. First rule, after the Bush collapse, to divide the delegate votes in the early states. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump grabbed a big proportion of the delegates. In South Carolina, Trump got all the delegates. All the millions of dollars Cruz and Rubio spent, all the hours Cruz and Rubio worked, all the organizational effort expended.. Trump takes it all at wholesale prices while Cruz and Rubio get nothing for their crap shoot.

Second rule in light of Jeb Bush’s collapse. The winner take all rules that will begin to dominate the races on March 15 and thereafter benefit Trump now. If Trump wins with a single solitary vote, Trump gets it all, not Bush.

Third rule. The minimum vote requirement to get delegates. In many states candidates will need to get at least 20 percent of the votes in order to be eligible to get any delegates. The winner will get the undistributed votes. This is a big rule for everyone to keep their eye on.

Super-rule 40. This is a big one. The biggest. We’ve talked about Rule 40 before. Rule 40 was meant to fix the election for Jeb Bush:

Officially, it’s Rule 40 in the RNC handbook and it states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states” before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention.

A majority of eight state delegations just to have a name put into nomination. South Carolina gives Trump one of those states. A clear majority. Cruz cannot claim a majority of the delegates for Iowa. Trump is the only one that has a victory to qualify one state delegation under Rule 40. It’s the rules baby. The 2008 primaries were stolen from Hillary Clinton by the Rules and By-laws Committee as her delegates were stolen from her and given to Barack Obama and Barack Obama was also given delegates from an election (Michigan) in which Obama was not even a candidate as he had taken his name off the ballot. It’s the rules baby.

Now, with the strategic landscape of the Rules, let’s look at the tactical landscape of the polls. Who wins next? Can Trump win Nevada and the Super-Tuesday states? Yes:

Donald Trump leads polls in 10 of next 14 voting states

Donald Trump is leading in 10 of the 14 states set to vote in Republican primaries or caucuses over the next two weeks.

Recent polls show that Trump is ahead in Nevada, Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Louisiana.

According to Real Clear Politics, his biggest lead is in Massachusetts, where he is 35 points ahead of Marco Rubio.

Trump’s lowest margin of victory is predicted to come in Minnesota, where he leads Rubio by 6 points.

In Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s home state, Trump trails him by 6.7 percent, meaning he could still grab a chunk of the state’s 172 delegates.

Trump is currently ahead with a total of 61 delegates, 50 more than Cruz. The eventual nominee will need 1,236 out of 2,472.

Trump also trails in Arkansas, Colorado and Kentucky.

The candidates are now revving up their campaigns for Super Tuesday, March 1, when voters go to the polls in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming.

In the states Trump leads, the polls are often of recent vintage. In the states Trump is slightly behind, the polls are usually old and certainly do not take into account Trump’s tremendous victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. (Latest poll from Massachusetts has Trump at 50%, latest poll from Nevada has Trump at 45%.)

Like a cold war era samizdat copy of a banned Solzhenitsyn novel, this excellent McClatchy article sums up the current state of GOP play:

Trump poised to step on the GOP accelerator

GOP delegate selection process favors front-runners

Nevada caucus up next; Trump favored

He leads in 8 of the next states

CHARLESTON, S.C. Things sure look good for Donald Trump.

The Republican presidential race expanded across the country Sunday, and polls show the real estate mogul ahead in eight of the dozen states voting in the next nine days.

Trump has now won primaries in two very different states, center-right New Hampshire and evangelical-dominated South Carolina. And the Republican Party system of choosing a presidential nominee favors candidates who continue to win early primaries and caucuses.

He seems to have about a third of the Republican electorate under his spell, and it’s a durable, non-ideological coalition,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Sunday. [snip]

Rubio lived in Las Vegas as a child, was a church member, and Sunday picked up the endorsement of Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nevada. But a CNN/ORC poll last week showed Trump with a huge lead, with more support than Rubio and Cruz combined.

Trump had 45%, Rubio 19% and Cruz 17% in the Feb. 10-15 CNN/ORC Nevada GOP caucus poll.

Ruby-O leads in zero states. Ruby-O campaigned with most of the South Carolina GOP establishment but lost. Now, Trump at 45% in Nevada before the impact of his South Carolina hit. Who do you think will win Nevada?

On March 1, the primaries and caucuses in 11 states include seven states in the south or near the south none of which are likely to go Ruby-o. The Ruby-o fans love their Ruby-o but he’s just a dreamer unlikely to immigrate to the White House.



We don’t see any state where Ruby-o wins a majority of the delegates. None. Neither does Ruby-o himself. Which means Ruby-o won’t even get his name in nomination at the GOP convention. Now that we’ve ruined a great song, let’s go on with the McClatchy analysis of the next primary elections:

Cruz has a more daunting test.

South Carolina should have ignited his crusade for a more God-fearing America. Everything was in place, including a big momentum-filled downtown Charleston rally Friday with Duck Dynasty’s Phil Robertson, conservative talk show host Sean Hannity and a surprise endorsement from Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C.

Instead, Cruz not only finished third, but exit polls showed he trailed Trump among evangelicals. [snip]

The challenge for Trump’s rivals is that his appeal transcends traditional political boundaries. The future of Trump’s candidacy was apparent last week when he stopped in wealthy Kiawah Island, a southeastern South Carolina residential and resort community. The audience was a well-educated, politically sophisticated group full of teachers, lawyers, nurses, doctors and retired government workers.

They tended to be over 55 and had worked in bureaucracies all their lives. They appreciated Trump’s ability to cut through the rhetoric.

“I’m tired of all the political correctness,” said Isabel Romero, a former Army finance official. “He appeals to your heart and he appeals to the middle class.”

Today’s crisis at the Cruz camp, a communications director firing for yet another dirty tricks incident, does not help Cruz – and it’s hours before Nevada votes. As to the McClatchy analysis and Trump, there’s lots more appreciation of Trump from the well educated residents of the island. But here is the heart and soul of our argument why now Trump Towers about all the rest:

Trump is also going to find a delegate selection process to his liking. The Republican race now is less about who finishes second or third than who can win the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus deliberately crafted a process designed to produce a nominee quickly. By March 15, about 60 percent of Republican delegates will have been chosen.

Rules favor winners. In some states, candidates must get at least 20 percent of the vote to win delegates. In theory, if someone won 35 percent, and no one else got 20 percent, that candidate would win all the state’s delegates.

On March 15, the system changes again to promote an early nominee. States then can award all their delegates to the winner, period, no matter what the margin. That means someone could squeak through in Florida, which has a March 15 primary, and get all its 99 delegates.

The “fix” in place for Jeb Bush now works to the benefit of Donald Trump. The best laid schemes of mice and men – often fall apart. The best constructed firewalls often are the first to burn.

When you look at it right now, it looks like there’s this juggernaut.”

Trump Towers now above the rest of the field.

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When Firewalls Burn: #NVDemsCaucus And South Carolina GOP Primary

Update: Ted Cruz has a South Carolina firewall:

What if the firewall crumbles?

That’s the worry of a growing number of people close to Ted Cruz’s campaign, who are privately beginning to fear that a big loss in South Carolina to Donald Trump on Saturday could signal more defeats to come in the so-called SEC states that are the lynchpin of Cruz’s strategy.

“If they’re pretty far back from Trump and they can’t get southern conservative evangelicals in South Carolina, I do think they’re probably going to have a hard time elsewhere,” said Erick Erickson, a conservative writer in touch with Cruz’s team. “I sense a real fear from people that if Trump blows everybody out of the water in South Carolina, that he is suddenly unstoppable.

South Carolina is not a Trump “firewall” because Trump has a diverse coalition. A Trump loss in South Carolina would be a big blow never-the-less. It would be a weakness and a sign of a long slog to come. Granted, by all logic Donald Trump should lose South Carolina. Trump has been, in one short week, attacked by the Pope, by Big Media and the entire political establishment – then responded with a lethal attack on some of the delusions about George W. Bush the Republican establishment holds most dear.

But South Carolina is a Cruz “firewall” not a Trump must win. If Trump beats Cruz in South Carolina, we believe Cruz will have to get out of the race even though we also believe foolish Cruz will decide to stick with his loser campaign. Of course, Cruz could win. Cruz once thought he would would win South Carolina:

Cruz’s team once envisioned South Carolina as a rubber match between Trump, the New Hampshire victor, and Cruz, the Iowa winner. Now, it’s being read as an omen of what’s to come in 10 days’ time when Southern states vote on Super Tuesday.

Cruz once called the God-fearing, gun-toting SEC states that vote then on March 1 his “firewall,” but polls show Trump leading in South Carolina, and a dominant performance Saturday would show that Cruz has not been able to sufficiently consolidate the evangelical base that he needs to win down the road in places like Tennessee and Georgia.

Cruz could win if evangelicals come out in massive numbers and vote in massive numbers for Cruz. Still, that would make Cruz a niche candidate and the states to come won’t have that high a proportion of evangelicals voting.

Just as Hillary Clinton required at least a ten point win in Nevada to douse the louse Bernie Sanders, Trump could use a big win because that would put the nail in the Cruz coffin:

Several people close to the campaign concede that losing South Carolina by double digits would spell serious trouble for Super Tuesday. If it’s a tighter loss, some say, it would validate the theory that Trump was susceptible to their attacks and encourage more. [snip]

“But if Trump gets 38 or 40 — and Cruz is second with 22 or something like that — it’s going to be very ominous,” the fundraiser added. [snip]

It is hard to overstate the importance of March 1 to Cruz’s self-professed path to victory — he has made the date, which will award more delegates than any other day in the Republican calendar, the cornerstone of his strategy.

Allies tell CNN Cruz is hoping to win 60% of the delegates there.

The next state to vote in the GOP nomination race is Nevada. Trump has a large lead there already. Cruz has a lot of firewalls that might go up in a Glenn Beck blaze:

Assuming Cruz does hold off Rubio, though, the key will be how large the margin of loss is to Trump, who also holds a large lead in Nevada.

If Trump wins and we’re second, the SEC primary becomes a 50/50 scenario,” said one Cruz insider. “It’s our territory, but he’ll have the momentum.”

Firewalls will burn tonight. Whose?

Rubio had a 3-2-1 strategy (come in 3 in Iowa, 2 in NH, 1 in South Carolina). Cruz had a #1 in South Carolina firewall too. Trump has a win-win-win strategy. Not all three men can be #1.

Trump has almost always led by a great deal in South Carolina polls. Cruz had a firewall that might or might not burn down tonight and set a-blaze other firewalls on March 1. Marco Rubio needs to be something other than the perpetual bronze medal winner somewhere. Somethings gonna burn.

There will be losers as firewalls burn:

GOP elders want poorly performing candidates to quit

South Carolina could reshape the 2016 contest, with donor dollars shifting to a single Trump-Cruz alternative.

The South Carolina primary is poised to dramatically alter the Republican nomination contest, winnowing and clarifying the largest and most rambunctious GOP field in decades.

Many in the party’s upper echelons have grown impatient with their splintered field of center-right, mainstream contenders and say they intend to put pressure on whichever candidate falls short of third place on Saturday night to quit. [snip]

South Carolina will reshape the race,” said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. [snip]

After disappointing showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, Jeb Bush has staked his campaign on South Carolina, dispatching his brother and mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, to jog voters’ fond memories of Bushes past. Despite the family’s efforts, however, most polls in recent days have shown Bush hovering in single digits, far behind rival Marco Rubio.

The GOP establishment wants to stop Trump. Stop Trump is the goal:

If Bush bows out, a large and wealthy set of establishment-minded donors will be free to throw their support elsewhere. The former governor has tapped into his family’s loyal political network to amass over $120 million in contributions, and many Republicans say they think Rubio would be able to secure the backing of most of those donors, many of whom are eager for the party to unite behind a single contender to combat Trump and Cruz.

“The donor community is desperate to get someone out to focus on stopping Trump,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who won the South Carolina primary in 2012.

Rubio backers also hope that a smaller GOP field will bring party veteran Mitt Romney off the sidelines with an endorsement. Those close to Romney say he’s anxious to defeat Trump and Cruz – and that a Bush exit could nudge him closer to blessing Rubio. [snip]

South Carolina may transform the contest in other ways. Some in the Republican establishment worry that, following his runaway performance in New Hampshire, a lopsided Trump win would create an unmistakable sense of momentum heading into Nevada and the Super Tuesday states that vote on March 1. Most South Carolina surveys show Trump holding leads of anywhere from 15 to 20 percent.

“I think it would make him very difficult to stop, especially if he wins by a large margin, which is what the polls are indicating,” said McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee. “To state the obvious, if he wins, it’s significant.”

The firewalls are burning. A Trump victory in South Carolina would burn the biggest firewall of all:

How a Trump win in South Carolina could tear the GOP apart

For political junkies, the past week has been among the most astonishing in a political season already jam-packed with astonishing weeks.

In last Saturday’s GOP debate in South Carolina, Donald Trump took his disruptive tactics to a whole new level, laying into Jeb Bush and accusing his brother, former President George W. Bush, not just of invading Iraq for no good reason and ineptly managing the occupation of the country, but of intentionally lying to justify the war in the first place. In Trump’s telling, Saddam Hussein didn’t possess weapons of mass destruction, Dubya knew it, and he hyped the threat to justify a war he wanted to initiate for unrelated reasons. That’s long been a trope of far-left conspiracy theorists and dismissed by mainstream Democrats and Republicans alike. Yet there was the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination leveling that charge from center stage of a nationally televised GOP debate.

Conservative pundits understood instantly the gravity of what they were witnessing. If a Republican candidate for president could win a primary in a deeply conservative Southern state after such an outburst, it would be the strongest evidence yet that the conservative movement had lost control of the party — that a significant bloc of its voters is ready and willing to repudiate the movement and the ideas that have defined it for several decades.

That’s what’s going to be tested this Saturday in South Carolina. A dominating victory by Trump, which most polls are predicting, will not only strongly indicate that he’s likely either to win the nomination or prevent the nomination of anyone else prior to the GOP convention this summer. It will also portend a tumultuous future for the Republican Party, regardless of who ends up as the nominee in 2016. A party with such a large bloc of voters who diverge so sharply from the party’s organizing ideology is either a party that will need to significantly change its ideological direction — or one on the verge of breaking apart.

Whether this is in fact what’s in store for the Republican Party will be clarified as never before once the results in South Carolina roll in.

The biggest firewall to burn tonight is the GOP establishment firewall. If Trump wins South Carolina Trump will likely win the nomination and control of the Republican Party. The GOP establishment is burning, set ablaze by the voters, mostly the white working class, tired of the lies and corruption of the entire national political establishment:

The white working-class base of the party has been devastated by stagnating wages, globalization and de-industrialization, and various forms of social and cultural breakdown. And through it all the Republican Party has offered little beyond tax cuts for the wealthy and stern, moralistic reprimands (“Stop whining and get a job!”). That’s hardly a strategy inclined to generate long-term loyalty and enthusiasm for the party.

But that’s just the beginning.

Judged by any objective standard, the Republican Party’s record of governance over the past 16 years has been dismal. The largest and deadliest terrorist attack in American history took place with a Republican in the White House. He started two wars in response. The first failed for years to achieve its most immediate goal (capturing or killing Osama bin Laden) and dragged on for well over a decade, producing a deeply muddled outcome.

The second war was far more controversial. It failed to turn up the weapons that were the proximal cause of the conflict; sparked an insurgency that killed and maimed thousands of American soldiers; killed, maimed and displaced hundreds of thousands of Iraqis; and spawned groups (al Qaeda in Iraq, which later became the Islamic State and its affiliates) that now radiate destabilizing violence throughout the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia, with carnage occasionally reaching as far as France and California.

Meanwhile, the same Republican president pushed through two massive tax cuts that mostly benefited the wealthy, inspired only modest economic growth, and did little to buoy middle-class wages. He then presided over the most severe economic crisis and collapse in seven decades.

That’s an awful lot to answer for. But not even this record filled with ample doses of bad luck, missteps, and outright mistakes gets at the deepest source of present-day dissent within the GOP — which is the response of the party and its conservative-movement cheerleaders to these mistakes and missteps.

We typically think of ideology as a web of policies and the arguments that are used to justify them. But ideologies can also shape tactics. And the fact is that for much of the past generation the GOP has been in the grip of a tactical ideology of willful stubbornness. [snip]

Which brings us back to Trump.

What voters hear when he rails against the stupidity of the country’s political leadership, the incompetence of George W. Bush, and what he likes to call the complete disaster of American policy in Iraq and the broader Middle East is a man willing both to face the ugly truth that they themselves perceive and to call out those who refuse to acknowledge it. If he gets a little carried away in countenancing some unsavory conspiracy theories, that’s a forgivable offense. Certainly more forgivable than Republicans failing to take even the least bit of responsibility for what they’ve done, and failed to do, while holding positions of power.

On Saturday night in South Carolina, we’ll see how many Republican voters are willing to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt — all for the sake of telling the party’s leadership just how unwilling they are to continue extending the same benefit to them.

Firewalls will burn today. It is not just political campaigns set ablaze. Today, the political establishment faces the Götterdämmerung conflagration all tyrants fear.

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Today and/or tonight, firewalls will burn. We don’t know which firewalls will burn. But today, firewalls burn.

The biggest and earliest firewall that might Bern? Hillary Clinton’s Nevada firewall.

Hillary2016 must win a resounding victory of ten points or more if she is to keep her Nevada firewall pristine, not charred. If Hillary2016 loses in Nevada, a state where her campaign bragged of its lead for so long, then it will be the first of burnt firewalls and Hillary2016 will resemble bombed out post war European cities.

If we see a Bernt Hillary2016 firewall in Nevada, Bernie Sanders will be able to survive the earlier primaries which should be Hillary2016 victories. If the Hillary2016 Nevada firewall Berns down Bernie Sanders will have his great comeback in the Western primaries and caucuses towards the end of the nomination process.

If Nevada Berns, there will be few credible excuses. The dumb “analysis” that suggests Hillary2016 will be saved by the odious Harry Reid, just don’t know what they are talking about. Harry Reid in 2008 helped destroy Hillary and in 2016 Harry Reid is up to his same tricks.

If Nevada Berns, there will be zero credible excuses for the failure. Hillary2016 campaign manager Robbie Mook grew up in Vermont so he understands the Vermont senator. Also, Robbie Mook was the 2008 Hillary state director in Nevada.

If the firewall holds without a singe on it, then Hillary2016 will be back on track. But an Iowa style “victory” will only serve to fire up the Jacobins of the Bernie cinder campaign.

If the Nevada firewall Berns today, the spiritless Mook “data driven” campaign will be in flames. Mook’s head and the hapless Jennifer Palmieri’s head will have to be removed. If the Nevada firewall Berns today, the long slough for Hillary2016 will begin. It will be a long slough to defeat.

We will update with the Republican contest in South Carolina and the burning firewalls there, before the voting ends at 7:00 p.m.

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Shocker!!! @RealDonaldTrump Tops Polls As Pope Attacks Trump – #Hillary2016 Shrinks

Update: Some fun to take note of as we approach the supercalifragilisticexpialidocious South Carolina primary on Saturday. You do know that South Carolina is winner-take-all right? Trump will emerge from South Carolina with a huge chunk of delegate change.

Saturday might also be the last payday for Jeb Bush staff. Reports are that Jeb’s coffers are low energy. The SuperPac has run out of energy too with about $15 million left. Even Bob Dole sees the end and has set Jeb adrift.

We’re exercising our wits and husbanding our bile for Saturday’s post. By then we should be in full snark/sneer mode as the election returns come in.

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Donald J. Trump is poised to win the GOP nomination on Saturday if he wins South Carolina despite what many thought was his, for sure this time, “it’s over for Trump” moment. The polls all show Trump tops, so this Saturday might be the day Trump unofficially becomes the GOP nominee.

But now the Pope has attacked Trump, and presumably every presidential candidate and every American who supports a border wall:

News from The Associated Press

ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE (AP) — Pope Francis said Thursday that Donald Trump is “not Christian” if he intends to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. Trump immediately fired back, saying it is disgraceful for a religious leader to question a person’s faith.

Trump, a leading U.S. Republican presidential candidate, has promised to build a wall along the Mexican border from Texas to California and expel 11 million people who are in the country illegally if elected president. The Pope’s comments en route home from Mexico came hours after he prayed at the Mexico-U.S. border for people who died trying to reach the United States.

“A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian,” Francis said. “This is not in the Gospel.”

Not having heard Trump’s border plans independently, Francis said he’d “give him the benefit of the doubt.” But he added: “I’d just say that this man is not Christian if he said it this way.”

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, another Republican presidential contender, has also supported building a border wall, and joked that he will make Trump pay for it.

Trump, a Presbyterian, last week criticized Francis’ plans to pray at the border. He said the move was ill-informed and showed Francis to be a political figure being exploited by the Mexican government.

I don’t think he understands the danger of the open border that we have with Mexico,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News. “I think Mexico got him to do it because they want to keep the border just the way it is. They’re making a fortune, and we’re losing.”

Donald J. Trump has taken on the political establishment, both political parties, Big Media, the cultural left and the cultural right, the institutions of great wealth and power, anyone and everyone. Now, it’s the Pope who Trump fearlessly, politely, responds to:

If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, which as everyone knows is ISIS’s ultimate trophy, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President because this would not have happened. ISIS would have been eradicated unlike what is happening now with our all talk, no action politicians.

The Mexican government and its leadership has made many disparaging remarks about me to the Pope, because they want to continue to rip off the United States, both on trade and at the border, and they understand I am totally wise to them. The Pope only heard one side of the story – he didn’t see the crime, the drug trafficking and the negative economic impact the current policies have on the United States. He doesn’t see how Mexican leadership is outsmarting President Obama and our leadership in every aspect of negotiation.

For a religious leader to question a person’s faith is disgraceful. I am proud to be a Christian and as President I will not allow Christianity to be consistently attacked and weakened, unlike what is happening now, with our current President. No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man’s religion or faith. They are using the Pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves for doing so, especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so rampant.

It’s Trump and Trump supporters against the world. And it looks like Trump and his supporters will win.

As we explained, if Trump can win South Carolina after his attacks against the very popular in SC George W. Bush, and Trump’s denunciations against the Iraq War, in the state with the highest veteran population, then Trump is unstoppable.

The polls today? CBS:

CBS News poll: Donald Trump maintains commanding lead over Republican field

Donald Trump (35 percent) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18 percent). John Kasich (11 percent) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12 percent). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.

Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing his rivals on this measure.

The Fox News poll:

Trump captures 32 percent among South Carolina likely Republican primary voters. Ted Cruz gets 19 percent to Marco Rubio’s 15 percent. These are the only three candidates earning double-digit support. [snip]

The poll, released Thursday, was conducted Monday through Wednesday evenings. Many political observers felt the Republican faithful might abandon the front-runner after the rowdy February 13 GOP debate in Greenville, where Trump said President George W. Bush’s administration lied to push the U.S. into the Iraq war and Planned Parenthood “does wonderful things” for women’s health.

Even so, the performance didn’t hurt Trump with his backers. Support for Trump is mostly unchanged since early December when he received 35 percent.

So, um, it’s over for Trump?

The results for Hillary2016 are not quite as bright:

Allies of Hillary Clinton are growing nervous as the Democratic presidential race with Bernie Sanders tightens ahead of contests in Nevada and South Carolina.

A new CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday found Clinton with a 1-point lead in Nevada, which hosts its caucuses on Saturday. That’s a huge change from the 23-point lead Clinton enjoyed in a late December poll by Gravis.

In South Carolina, which hosts its primary election on Feb. 27, Clinton has a more comfortable 18-point lead according to a CNN/ORC poll. But even that edge has narrowed since Sanders crushed her in New Hampshire’s primary last week. [snip]

“I don’t get it. I don’t think anyone expected this race to look like this,” said one former Clinton aide who maintains ties with the campaign. “A big loss in New Hampshire, basically a tie going into Nevada. You have to ask yourself, ‘What’s next?’ ”

Team Clinton maintains confidence that its lead in South Carolina will hold, but the potential loss in Nevada has put people on edge about a “domino effect” in which states could fall one by one to Sanders as he gains momentum.

“It’s hard to feel confident about South Carolina if you lose Nevada,” the former aide said. [snip]

Internally, both Hillary and former President Bill Clinton have voiced their displeasure with various aspects of the campaign, particularly on messaging and organizing, according to sources. Those involved with the campaign increasingly believe a staff reshuffling will take place, especially if Clinton loses in Nevada.

The shit will hit the fan,” one longtime friend of the Clintons predicted. “No doubt about it.”

That idiot “Clinton aide” who said “I don’t think anyone expected this race to look like this” should read what we have written. This is precisely what we predicted. The kook left would solidify against Hillary and that’s why Hillary had to tie herself to a strategy that would make her the candidate of change with relentless attacks against Barack Obama, not the stupidity of making herself the Obama third term. Follow our advice precisely to the letter Hillary, or die. It’s that simple.

Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 don’t follow our advice, so, they will die:

AFL-CIO Delays Making Endorsement In Democratic Presidential Primary

In a win for Bernie Sanders, the AFL-CIO is delaying making it’s endorsement in the surprisingly close Democratic presidential primary. [snip]

“Following recent discussion at the AFL-CIO’s Executive Committee meeting and subsequent conversations with many of you, I have concluded that there is broad consensus for the AFL-CIO to remain neutral in the presidential primaries for the time being and refrain from endorsing any candidate at this moment,” Trumka said in the email.

If Donald Trump wins South Carolina and Hillary Clinton loses Nevada this Saturday – it really is all over for Trump. Call him President Trump.

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OMG!!! It’s Over For Trump!!! – Plus, An @TedCruz Prediction

Update: First one poll, then another. It’s more more over for Trump.

According to a new CNN/ORC poll out Tuesday, Trump has the support of 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz well behind him with 22 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 14 percent and Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 10 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 6 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 4 percent.

Zombie Trump. He will not die. No matter what the establishment does. He will not die. Zombie Trump.

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Donald J. Trump has become Jeb Bush!!! Well, kinda, sorta, not really. If you need a laugh, these days before South Carolina votes (for GOP) and Nevada votes (Hillary v. Bernie) we’ve got a stupendous “It’s over for Trump” bit of news for you:

Humiliation: JebBush.com redirects to Trump’s official website [snip]

Presidential campaigns typically buy up lots of domain names related to their candidates before those candidates officially announce their intention to run. The reason they do this is obvious: They don’t want rivals or random Internet trolls to buy up the domains and use them to create parody websites that make their candidates look ridiculous.

Remarkably, it seems the Bush campaign never bothered to buy up JebBush.com.

Like Hillary2016, Jeb2016 is not a campaign, it is an embarrassment:

How badly is Bush getting owned in this primary? JebBush.com goes to DonaldJTrump.com.

Poor Jeb Bush.

This Republican primary was supposed to be his to lose. Instead, he’s getting owned by Donald Trump.

How badly is Trump owning Bush?

So badly that JebBush.com leads to Trump’s site instead. [snip]

At the time, it just seemed like a characteristic Jeb bumble: How, after immigration reform activists snapped up TedCruz.com and CarlyFiorina.org became a testament to the layoffs Fiorina ordered at Hewlett-Packard, could Bush’s people not lock up JebBush.com? But after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, Jeb Bush and his campaign have become objects of a weird kind of pity.

Bush told a New Hampshire audience to “please clap” after he delivered a line; it was a joke, but also kind of wasn’t. A video captured him lighting up with joy when a voter tells him, “You might swing my vote,” then coming over to envelop the poor voter in a hug. (The video was uploaded to YouTube with the title “Jeb hug — sad times.”)

It’s over for Trump!!! If voters confuse Trump for Jeb even for a second, Trump will never recover. Jeb has finally found a way to destroy Trump! Brilliant move by Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jeb for months has conveyed an image as a first class idiot, a Fredo, a dunce, the doofus on the beach that watches He-Man Trump walk by and throw sand in his face, the idiot loser son that needs mommy to kiss his boo-boo paper cuts, the dried out twig on the tree, the bird born without feathers, the broken egg shell in the carton, the soaked wet book with all the pages lumped together, the fat kid sent to the fat farm by angry parents who goes dewy eyed every time he sees a donut, the inbred royal brat outwitted by an ice cream cone, a one blade scissors, a two legged stool, a stopped up toilet. . . . But that was just a ploy.

Jeb Bush played possum. He prepared a trap for Trump. Jeb’s plan was to make himself such a loser that just seeing Jeb next to The Donald would finish off the mighty Trump. Jeb became the Pigpen to Charlie Brown. Now Trump has fallen into the crafty trap.



Well, maybe not. The truth is Jeb Bush is a loser and Donald Trump is a winner.

Just say Trump is a winner. Need another laugh bought and paid for by Donald J. Trump? Trump trumps again:

Trump Schedules Competing MSNBC Town Hall Opposite Cruz, Rubio CNN Town Hall

In yet another aggressive move that will thrill Trump supporters, late Tuesday morning, Jesse Rodriguez, Senior Producer of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” announced a town hall event with Republican frontrunner Donald Trump that will take place Wednesday night at 8 p.m. The night will be hosted by Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski. The MSNBC town hall will compete directly with CNN’s long-schedule town hall with Trump’s two closest competitors, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).

On Trump’s part, the competing town hall is obviously yet another one of The Donald’s ruthlessly effective political moves to infuriate his competitors and smother their message. [snip]

As far as Trump, unless an angry CNN now rescinds its offer, just days before voting begins in South Carolina, he will enjoy a town hall two-fer. Along with John Kasich and Jeb Bush, Trump is scheduled to appear at a Thursday night CNN town hall event.

If MSNBC will now put up a CNN-style countdown clock for the Trump town hall, my life will be complete.

UPDATE: My life is complete.

Trump trumps the repulsive MSNBC. That’s how you do it. Get a dog to eat a dog. [Apologies to all, we do not mean to impugn our furry friends, it’s just a conventional expression and we correct ourselves not out of political correctness but because dogs are so much better than the Big Media animals, and we don’t want anyone to confuse adorable pets with the vermin of Big Media.]

Trump does not go to MSNBC, as we have angrily denounced before, out of weakness. Trump goes to MSNBC in triumph, not defeat. Trump goes on CNN, then thwarts CNN by using the reptiles at MSNBC to block Cruz/Rubio on CNN. How smart is this guy?

Yesterday, we updated a new poll from South Carolina. Our comment is what we now address:

The question is “did Donald J. Trump blow himself up with his monumental gamble of attacking George W. Bush and the Iraq War in a state where GWB is at 80% popularity and a state which has many veterans?” [snip]

If the GOP establishment, Big Media, and the political establishment in its entirety cannot stop Trump in South Carolina now, then where, when? If Trump can make it there, Trump can make it anywhere… it’s up to you… South Carolina.

If Trump cannot be beaten now, in South Carolina, when everything is going the establishment’s way and will never be better for the establishment – – – – – then when can they ever stop Trump? WHEN??? WHERE???

If Trump wins in South Carolina. . . .

Here’s our Ted Cruz prediction: If Trump wins South Carolina Ted Cruz will leave the race.

Well, maybe that’s just our best advice for Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz, for his own good should leave the race if Trump wins in South Carolina. Why?

It won’t get better for Ted Cruz if Trump wins in South Carolina. South Carolina is an open primary and there are more open primaries to come and many of them on Super Tuesday March 1. Which means Trump will win big on Super Tuesday if Trump wins South Carolina.

Trump is already way ahead in many Super Tuesday states but his lead will expand like Christie’s belly if Trump wins South Carolina. Once Trump dispatches Cruz and Carson he will be the only outsider left to fight the divided establishment. Then Trump can finish off Rubio. Once Rubio is gone, Jeb Bush will take his anti-Rubio personal vendetta and go home to mommy. For now, Trump’s #1 target is Cruz and if Trump wins South Carolina, Super Tuesday will be a romp for Trump.

That’s not the worst of it for Cruz. On Super Tuesday, Texas will vote. If Cruz loses in Texas, he is not only finished in the 2016 primary fight for president. If Ted Cruz loses in Texas on Super Tuesday March 1, he will be humiliated in Texas. Once the Cruz blood is in the water, Cruz will be bled to death by his opponents in Texas and in the U.S. Senate. Cruz will be primaried when he runs for reelection. His career will possibly be over.

Our advice to Ted Cruz: If Donald Trump wins South Carolina, get out and endorse Trump immediately. Save yourself. Get back on Trump’s good side.

It’s almost over for Trump. He will soon be the nominee.

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@RealDonaldTrump Wins Big At #GOPDebate; @MarcoRubio, @JebBush Blow Themselves Up

Update II: Crisis! We might have more on this tomorrow. Enough to say right now that we have been waiting for polls from after Saturday’s debate. All the polls before the debate don’t amount to a hill of beans right now.

The question is “did Donald J. Trump blow himself up with his monumental gamble of attacking George W. Bush and the Iraq War in a state where GWB is at 80% popularity and a state which has many veterans?” Post debate polls will give us the clue as to whether Trump’s gamble wins big or loses big. Tighten your girdles, hang on to your hats, clutch your pearls, and pull your hair — the first, after the debate, clue has arrived:

FIRST ON BUZZ: After debate, Trump still tops SC GOP presidential race

Donald Trump still is leading the S.C. Republican presidential race after the weekend’s explosive GOP debate in Greenville.

But the race for second place in Saturday’s primary appears to be narrowing.

Behind Trump, who has 35 percent support in the poll, U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are tied for second place — at 18 percent each, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released exclusively Monday to The State.

Crisis and panic in the land of the lost!!! If the GOP establishment, Big Media, and the political establishment in its entirety cannot stop Trump in South Carolina now, then where, when? If Trump can make it there, Trump can make it anywhere… it’s up to you… South Carolina.

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Update: Jeb: It’s “not important to me” whether there’s a vote on Obama’s SCOTUS nominee. Fredo has spoken. That’s the GOP establishment guy with the flag of surrender. They’re busy calling Trump a crazy. The GOP establishment knows it’s too late to stop Trump. Strong Trump will fight. That’s why Trump wins.

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It was the St. Valentine’s Eve massacre. Donald Trump machine gunned the stage and audience, and few have noticed all the dead bodies lying around.

Some of Big Media commentary, the wishful thinking but not very bright “analysis” has been that Donald Trump destroyed himself at the debate last night. That’s not what we saw. We have eyes to see, and ears to hear, and we understand strategy and tactics which is why we see all the blood and Trump triumphant. We’ll explain.

What the Hell was Donald Trump up to last night? The clues include Henry Kissinger and Bill Clinton. Can you figure it out with the clues we just gave you?

Here we go: remember when Hillary Clinton accused Donald Trump of being a sexist then Donald Trump went all ape-sh*t against Bill Clinton? Notice how Bill and Hillary have laid off Trump since then? See what Trump did there?

Also, did you notice that Donald Trump went nuclear against Bill Clinton at the very moment that Bill Clinton was to commence his campaign appearances on behalf of Hillary? Donald Trump turned Bill Clinton’s triumphant return to the center stage into a Big Media revisit down sexual history lane.

So, um, Bill Clinton returns to the center stage and Trump preps the battlefield with a bombardment against Bill Clinton under the guise of a “response” to Hillary’s attack. Do you get it now?

Last night, as George W. Bush debuts his return to the center stage to campaign on behalf of Fredo, er Jeb, on Monday, Trump prepped the battlefield with a bombardment. Trump did to George W. Bush’s return when Trump did to Bill Clinton’s return. On Monday, when George W. Bush campaigns for little bro, the nation will revisit the Iraq War. Won’t that be fun?

We here at Big Pink detest George W. Bush. We don’t think much about Daddy Bush either. Barbara Bush is not a favorite here either. In the past few years we’ve felt much kindlier towards George W. and the Bush clan – but only because in comparison to Barack Obama we consider the two Bush presidents to be patriotic, good Americans, even if their policies hurt the United States.

So here we are, like millions of others, thinking much kinder, gentler thoughts towards the Presidents Bush, but that all goes out the window if the discussion is not a Bush v. Obama discussion but rather a “was George W. Bush a good president for this country?” question. No.

We like the Presidents Bush a thousand times more that Obama but that does not mean we can defend the policies as implemented by the Presidents Bush. And yes, we understand that the Bush “surge” in Iraq helped secure the country and that Bush eventually got Iraq under some control and had pretty much stabilized Afghanistan and that Barack Obama is to blame for the carnage there today. All that is true.

But the Iraq War was a monumental mistake because it helped Iran. And Donald Trump gets all that and he shouts it out in front of the Republican establishment as the establishment shouts boos at Trump.



Got that? Now, let’s go to Kissinger, Henry Kissinger. Did you think it was crazy for Bernie Sanders to attack Hillary Clinton on her good relationship with former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger at their last debate? It was crazy, but what Sanders was doing was painting Hillary into a “she’s a right wing war-monger” corner and himself as the “Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party” Howard Dean speaking truth to power even thought Bernie is a socialist who has not been a Democrat.



Bernie Sanders would love to re-litigate Hillary Clinton’s entire past and relationships as well as the entire history of American wars and foreign policy. Bernie Sanders at every turn reminds everyone of the Iraq War which he voted against and Hillary voted for an authorization of war.

Bernie Sanders would love to re-litigate the Iraq War to smash Hillary in the same way Barack Obama used Hillary’s vote to attack Hillary in 2008. Donald Trump?

Do you get it yet? Donald Trump wants to re-litigate the Iraq War too at the very moment George W. Bush returns to South Carolina, “Bush country”, to campaign for his hapless, low energy, stiff of a brother.

Yesterday, before the debate, we noted the audience in the debate hall would be stacked against Trump but that the greater TV audience would be for Trump:

The audience in the hall will be stacked with enemies of Trump but the TV audience will be with Trump, particularly the white working class. The composition of the audience won’t matter as much as the establishment hopes it will, however.

That’s exactly what happened. The audience was so anti-Trump and pro-establishment that it helps Trump trump.

Trump calls them “boo birds”. Who did the boo birds want to help? The boo birds wanted to help Jeb Bush but the boo birds’ favorite was Marco Rubio. The boo birds want to help Rubio, but did Rubio help himself? No.

Donald J. Trump attacked the consequences of the Iraq War and the lies and delusions before the war. Was Trump right that lies helped sell the Iraq War. Well, yeah. Remember Colin Powell at the U.N. with his bunch of lies?:

Powell’s UN speech, part of the Bush administration’s public case for the U.S. invasion of Iraq, with its unsupported assertions of mobile Iraqi biological-warfare labs and a “sinister nexus” between Iraq and al-Qaeda terrorists, was based on “deeply flawed” evidence, Powell writes.

“So why did no one stand up and speak out during the intense hours we worked on the speech?” Powell writes. “‘Some of these same analysts later wrote books claiming they were shocked that I have relied on such deeply flawed evidence.

It was lies and delusions. Not Obama style “hate America” lies but the Iraq War hurt America. And lies did sell it:

A former top aide to Colin Powell says his involvement in the former secretary of state’s presentation to the United Nations on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction was “the lowest point” in his life.

“I wish I had not been involved in it,” says Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, a longtime Powell adviser who served as his chief of staff from 2002 through 2005. “I look back on it, and I still say it was the lowest point in my life.”

Wilkerson is one of several insiders interviewed for the CNN Presents documentary “Dead Wrong — Inside an Intelligence Meltdown.” The program pieced together the events leading up to the mistaken WMD intelligence that was presented to the public. A presidential commission that investigated the pre-war WMD intelligence found much of it to be “dead wrong.”

Powell’s speech, delivered on February 5, 2003, made the case for the war by presenting U.S. intelligence that purported to prove that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Wilkerson says the information in Powell’s presentation initially came from a document he described as “sort of a Chinese menu” that was provided by the White House. [snip]

In one dramatic accusation in his speech, Powell showed slides alleging that Saddam had bioweapons labs mounted on trucks that would be almost impossible to find.

“In fact, Secretary Powell was not told that one of the sources he was given as a source of this information had indeed been flagged by the Defense Intelligence Agency as a liar, a fabricator,” says David Kay, who served as the CIA’s chief weapons inspector in Iraq after the fall of Saddam. That source, an Iraqi defector who had never been debriefed by the CIA, was known within the intelligence community as “Curveball.”

After searching Iraq for several months across the summer of 2003, Kay began e-mailing Tenet to tell him the WMD evidence was falling apart. At one point, Wilkerson says, Tenet called Powell to tell him the claims about mobile bioweapons labs were apparently not true.

Trump is right. Wanna re-litigate the Iraq War in 2016 Jeb?

As bad as the Iraq War re-litigation is for Jebby. It is Marco Rubio that blew himself up to smithereens.

At the GOP debate Marco Rubio defended George W. Bush with more energy than the brother with low energy, the stiff Jeb. But Marco Rubio’s defense of George W. Bush should have every conservative, every Republican, every smart thinking Democrat, everybody very very worried about Rubio.

Here’s Marco Rubio’s defense of George W. Bush and the World Trade Center attacks as well as on the Iraq War:



Did George W. Bush keep us safe even though as Trump correctly asserts the World Trade Center towers came tumbling down? Fast talking Rubio fast talks through that nonsense but that is not the problem with Rubio’s world view policy. Donald Trump should focus on what Rubio said if the race ever comes down to Trump v. Rubio, as the political establishment desires.

Watch again, catch the problem with what Rubio said:



Marco Rubio takes the reprehensible, anti-conservative, anti-Republican position that the United States should bankrupt itself, send young American women and men into death’s jaws – IN ORDER TO ENFORCE WHAT THE UNITED NATIONS WANTS.

Marco Rubio defends the Iraq War because the U.N. passed resolutions against Iraq. Think about that!

Vote for Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio and vote for perpetual dumb war instead of what is in the national security interest of the United States. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio want to be George W. Bush III. The boo birds will feather their nests with perpetual dumb war, not necessary and smart wars. Trump is the change candidate the boo birds hate.

Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush blew themselves up last night. Donald J. Trump machine gunned, like Kelly, the entire Republican establishment, the Big Media establishment, the internationalists, the neo-cons, the America as world’s policeman, crackpots, and these loons think it is Trump that is hurt by the truth. Trump told the needed to be told truth.

The truth sets you free. That’s why Trump is free – flying high over the field, like an eagle, feasting on boo birds.

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