Update: The final Selzer Iowa poll before the caucus says… Trumpnado! Trump 28, Cruz 23, Rubio 15, Carson 10. This is the gold standard poll and the big one before Monday. If these numbers hold up Donald J. Trump has defeated Fox News and all Big Media will take note. Big Media is the enemy.
Clinton 45, Sanders 43, O’Malley 3. Within the margin of error.
Our analysis from years and months ago is now conventional wisdom.
Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign is in great trouble because she is not the candidate of CHANGE. Instead of attacking Obama’s horrid record of non-leadership and bad public policy achieved via unconstitutional means (anyone remember when Obama ran on the DailyKooks platform against the “Unitary Executive” and Hillary promised to roll back Bush’s executive orders and fight against the “unitary executive”?) Hillary hugs the creep.
Barack Obama’s terrible occupation of the White House has destroyed the Democratic Party at the local, state, and national level too, but you won’t hear a peep of noise about any of that from Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in collapse because she wants to be the Obama Third Term, not a breath of fresh air and CHANGE.
As to Donald J. Trump, while even the most rabid pro-Donald Trump websites, today, sing his praises, we were the only website that understood the Trump phenomenon to come from the very first. Indeed, our 2012 articles on Trump have been amplified and vindicated. On the day Donald Trump announced, we knew he was a force not to be sneered at. We’ve been proven right. Or should we say we will be proven right? On Monday. In Iowa.
Before every debate we declared Trump the winner. It wasn’t cheesy propaganda, or wishful thinking, on our part. It’s that we understood the strategic aims of the campaign and we saw that Trump prepped the landscape – like the battleship Iowa and her great guns blasting the enemy shores.
Donald Trump does not do subtle. When those 16 inch guns focus, they blast away, as Fox News has learned. Political campaigns are military campaigns by other means. Donald Trump understands that, losers don’t.
Donald Trump blasts away in clear English. There is no subtlety, it is clear, unabashed, English. Trump communicates. Some say “I wish Trump would say things differently, temper his language”. Some say “We wish the USS Iowa would shoot daisies.”
Donald J. Trump communicates a vision. Trump has a “Make America Great Again” vision. Trump communicates that vision in clear, strong, unabashed English. Ask yourself, what is the vision, the slogan of all the other candidates? Don’t cheat by researching the question.
That’s a game we play. We try to remember the campaign slogan of every campaign without researching the answer.
To this day we know the Trump campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”. We know the Jeb Bush SuperPac is called “Right to Rise”. We are almost sure that Rubio’s slogan is something along the lines of “a new generation of leadership”. But Hillary’s slogan? Sanders’ slogan? Bush’s, Cruz’s, Christie, Kasich, Paul, Carson, does anyone know the most fundamental answer to the question of what is their campaign slogan? That’s a clue.
When the USS Iowa appeared offshore, the enemy knew what the message was. When Trump appears, the American public thinks “Make America Great Again“. And therein arises a Trumpnado.
Donald J. Trump, Trumpnado, has the most far left kook union leadership worried. The New York Times follows our lead from months ago and today reports on Trumpnado season in the working class:
Labor Leaders Fear Trump May Draw Large Numbers of Union Voters
WASHINGTON — Of all the voters who might be expected to resist the charms of Donald J. Trump, the two million members of the Service Employees International Union would most likely be near the top of the list.
The union, which endorsed Hillary Clinton in November, is widely regarded as one of the more progressive in the labor movement. It skews female and racially diverse — roughly the opposite of a Trump rally, in other words.
But the union’s president, Mary Kay Henry, acknowledged that Mr. Trump holds appeal even for some of her members. “There is deep economic anxiety among our members and the people we’re trying to organize that I believe Donald Trump’s message is tapping into,” Ms. Henry said.
In expressing her concern, Ms. Henry reflected a different form of anxiety that is weighing on some union leaders and Democratic operatives: their fear that Mr. Trump, if not effectively countered, may draw an unusually large number of union voters in a possible general election matchup. This could, in turn, bolster Republicans in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which President Obama won twice.
The source of the attraction to Mr. Trump, say union members and leaders, is manifold: the candidate’s unapologetically populist positions on certain economic issues, particularly trade; a frustration with the impotence of conventional politicians; and above all, a sense that he rejects the norms of Washington discourse.
“They feel he’s the one guy who’s saying what’s on people’s minds,” Thomas Hanify, the president of the Indiana state firefighters union, said of his rank and file.”
Years ago we wrote that the labor union movement had abandoned the interests of the working class. Illegal immigration and the consequent low wage societies were the most obvious labor union leadership treachery against those that pay the bills. Union members have noticed, and now Big Labor bosses are worried. The Obama Dimocrat Party finally sees the oncoming revolution and is afraid.
Why do union members eye Trump with favor? Is it the economy? The U.S. economy’s growth slowed sharply in the final three months of 2015 to a 0.7 percent annual rate. Consumers slowed spending, businesses cut back on investment and global problems trimmed exports. That’s during the Christmas season with lots of warm weather for shoppers.
At this point, days before Iowa voters imitate the namesake battleship, the Obama Dimocrat Party is of little consequence. The battle is for the future. The battle is whether the political class on the GOP side can be destroyed. Donald Trump is the USS Iowa blasting at the ruins of the corruption which is the Republican Party.
David Frum suggests the Republican Party establishment, not retreat, but surrender:
Maybe the Republican Establishment Can’t Have It All
Given their failure to take down Donald Trump, is it time for GOP elites to let go of some cherished inward-facing policy priorities? [snip]
Trump is surely an even more vulnerable target than Gingrich, right?
But Donald Trump has come under repeated attack. But Donald Trump has come under repeated attack. Here’s an ad from the Club for Growth’s million-dollar anti-Trump campaign back in September. Here’s Rand Paul in August. Here’s a pair of mocking ads from Jeb Bush’s campaign in September and October. Here’s a savage ad from the Kasich campaign in November. Everybody’s been talking about the National Review special issue in January denouncing Trump. The Miss America contestant from Alabama made many of the same points when she was interviewed in the pageant in the fall of 2015.
The attacks have been fired. They failed. [snip]
For a very long time, the voting base of the Republican Party has been signaling desperate economic and cultural distress. [snip]
Donald Trump’s response to this dilemma is protectionism, immigration restriction, and a big helping of his own often-claimed superhuman toughness and competence. It’s maybe not a very adequate answer, but it’s an answer. What’s Marco Rubio’s answer? What’s Jeb Bush’s? What’s Chris Christie’s? [snip]
The Republican Party in 2016 presents a contrasting spectacle: a party so powerfully committed to ideas that it can no longer recognize that those ideas have ceased to resonate beyond its own shrinking coteries of activists and intellectuals. Party elites have been broadcasting for months that Donald Trump is not a consistent conservative—and it has not made any difference at all. Balked and baffled, they’ve convinced themselves that the secret is to say it louder. [snip]
Or maybe it’s time for the party’s elites to let go of some of their cherished inward-facing policy priorities, as the boy released some of the nuts from his grasp. Instead, they might try actually addressing the fears and anxieties of the American middle class: jobs, wages, retirement security. Negative advertising has been aired without success. Perhaps a positive program would do better? Before it’s too late?
It’s too late. The USS Trump is offshore, 16 inch guns trained on the GOP establishment. On Monday a combined Trump bombardment this weekend and the people with pitchforks.
For a long while now we have been writing that Donald Trump was the nominee. Trump was unstoppable we wrote before Labor Day 2015, during the endless “Summer of Trump”. Now, the conventional wisdom catches up:
Trump May Be Unstoppable If He Wins Iowa
“A wide range of senior Republicans told Politico that if Trump wins Iowa, he’ll more than likely be the nominee. One factor they repeatedly pointed to: An Iowa victory over Cruz would validate opinion polls showing him in command of the race. The Trump phenomenon would officially become a reality.”
Said a top official of a rival GOP campaign: “If Donald Trump wins Iowa, I think he has won—period. Ted Cruz is supposed to win Iowa. If Trump wins, he’ll be on a trajectory to come out of the SEC primaries [March 1] with close to triple the delegates of anyone else.”
It’s easy to write that now. Not so easy when we wrote it.
Speaking of liars and cowards, Nate Silver. Silver is the “numbers guru” who used to write for the DailyKooks website and trash us. Silver, in his subsequent books and writings never disclosed he got campaign data from Obama in 2008. Silver lied his way to a top column at the New York Times and now has his own website. For months Silver gave Trump single digit (2%) chances to get the nomination. Unlike our on target analysis, Silver did not think Trump would win Iowa, let alone the nomination. Now, Nate Silver is backtracking.
Nate Silver, like many pollsters are running away from their lies now that Iowa votes in a few days. Silver and his lying friends are at this late hour, after their lies and stupid “analysis” have failed, busy rewriting. Today, Nate Silver tweeted a picture with the caption: “Just hanging out by the White House.” The picture is of Trump Tower.
It’s a big state but the picture from Iowa is clear today:
Clinton is spending the day crisscrossing Iowa to shore up up a shrinking lead over liberal favorite Bernie Sanders, at the same time her would-be Republican opponent, Ted Cruz, is working to engineer a last-minute upset over a rising Donald Trump.
Donald Trump this entire weekend continues to bombard Iowa with rally after rally with those who want to Make America Great Again. A Trumpnado is coming.
If Donald Trump wins Iowa and Hillary Clinton loses Iowa, it is instant President Trump.
The political and Big Media establishment centered in Washington D.C. and New York City better take shelter. A Trumpnado is coming – not to Iowa but from Iowa.