Update: Breaking: Multiple deaths in Paris amid reports of shootings, explosion. Another Trump warning goes full Churchill.
On the same day Barack Obama said he had ISIS “contained” Paris is under attack. According to some reports including one from Shep Smith: Man in French custody told police he’s Syrian, he came with 2 others, recruited by ISIS, and that this is an ISIS mission. Other reports appear to confirm what Obama will not admit about the Islamic savages out to destroy Israel and the West even as weak European leaders and Obama praise open borders:
Yasmin, inside the Bataclan, told BFM television: “I saw two guys. The biggest one said: ‘What are you doing in Syria? You’re going to pay now.’
“Then he opened fire.
“I saw bodies falling all around me. I was shot in the foot. It was carnage. I’ve never seen so many dead people all around,” she said, sobbing.
Anyone still wonder why Trump is winning? Europe’s open borders and the American southern border have melded into the most important issue for 2016. And Trump owns that issue.
It’s going to be a very interesting Dem debate tomorrow night and we will all see if these candidates are appeasers of Islamic monsters or will fight for America.
Good thing it was not the Bible. We swore on a stack of Art of the Deal books we would not write an article about how Donald J. Trump won the 4th debate. After every debate we’ve written such articles. But here we are and the latest news confirms: Donald Trump won GOP debate #4.
We wrote before the debate that Trump should focus on ObamaTrade as that is an issue which differentiates him from the others on the stage in a stark manner.
ObamaTrade did not dominate the debate as we thought it should have but it did lead to the second most feisty exchange between candidates. In that exchange Trump was attacked in a very clever manner by the exceedingly foolish Rand Paul.
The wackadoodle Rand Paul must have gotten one of his wiry hairs corkscrewing into his head because Randy did not understand the intelligent argument Donald J. Trump made. The moderator clearly understood Trump’s obvious claims and tried to point it out to the wackadoodle Randy even as a commercial break prevented a follow up from Trump. Subsequent events from Thursday proved Donald J. Trump correct and Rand Paul a clown.
First here is the exchange on ObamaTrade:
Notice that Donald J. Trump explicitly stated that China would come in “through the back door”. Trump denounces ObamaTrade/TPP and declares it a loss for the United States of monumental proportions. Further Trump discusses China currency manipulation and says it is the “single great weapon” China employs and which causes a great deal of job loss in this country.
Rand Paul is technically correct that China is not part of the ObamaTrade/TPP treaty. But that does not mean China cannot take advantage of the ObamaTrade/TPP treaty. Rand Paul is blind to what Trump sees as obvious. Trump is correct:
But Trump never suggested that China was part of the TPP, only that the country would “come in, as they always do, through the back door” of the agreement. And he was right.
The TPP does indeed allow China and other non-members to reap benefits from the deal without having to abide by any of its terms.
Here’s how it works: TPP and other free trade deals allow signatories to exchange goods without tariffs. But we live in a complicated world, with source materials derived from one country often traveling through a supply chain to another and completed in a third before moving to a retail market.
To cope with this, TPP adds a “rule of origin” chapter to determine whether an amalgamated good qualifies for tariff-free status. This is particularly important in Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam or Malaysia, which get a significant amount of production materials from China.
TPP says that all materials that go into a good, outside of a de minimis 10 percent, must derive from TPP countries. However, there are numerous exceptions and exemptions, along with a confusing set of calculations to determine eligibility. Through these cracks in the agreement, as Trump alluded, China can deliver goods to TPP countries without tariffs.
The article we cite above goes deep into the weeds of how China can take full advantage of ObaamTrade/TPP and should be read in full. This is not an academic argument. On Thursday, Trump’s China warnings hit, with real world consequences (via left wing Slate magazine):
Paging Donald Trump: General Motors Plans to Sell Chinese-Made Buicks in America
In a move that is almost certainly destined to become a campaign talking point for one Donald Trump, General Motors is reportedly planning to sell Chinese-manufactured Buicks in the United States. [snip]
If the move is successful, GM and its competitors could try to move more of their production to China. [snip]
There might be other reasons for American workers to worry about Chinese production. Let’s say, for instance, that China’s domestic car market cools down a bit more as the economy slows, and GM suddenly finds itself with lots of excess factory capacity there. The company could theoretically start using it to build more cars for the U.S. rather than open new plants here at home.
Fox Business explains further:
As Labor Costs Rise, GM to Sell Chinese-Made Buick SUV in U.S.
General Motors Co., fresh off agreeing to a new union contract that is expected to drive up its U.S. labor costs, plans to become the first major auto maker to sell Chinese-made cars in the U.S.
The nation’s No. 1 auto maker by sales early next year plans to start selling the Buick Envision, a midsize sport-utility vehicle made in Shandong province, according to people familiar with the plan. The move would add a third SUV to Buick’s U.S. lineup at a time when such crossovers are among the best selling vehicles in the market.
Initially, the company expects to import a modest number–between 30,000 and 40,000–a year. But it signals the beginning of a strategic production shift for the Detroit auto giant and a bold experiment that will be closely followed by other auto companies that have said they would eventually consider such a move.
Long among the top foreign sellers in China by volume, GM has confined production there to meeting China’s recent explosive demand. But as sales gains have moderated and Chinese tastes in cars converge with Americans’, the potential for more Chinese imports from GM and others could blossom. [snip]
In 2011, the UAW agreed to a wage contract that led to big bonuses for workers and the addition of tens of thousands of factory jobs. This year, union officials won much richer contracts that are expected to undermine those investment decisions and lead Detroit executives to look for lower-cost manufacturing options.
Add it all up and the Trump warnings on ObamaTrade/TPP so mocked by Big Media come true fast enough to make an American worker’s head spin.
On illegal immigration Donald J. Trump had an even more successful night when taken together with subsequent events. First, the illegal immigration blast from Trump at the debate as he battled John Kasich and Jeb Bush:
After Trump squashed Kasich, Jeb Bush came in to try to rescue the hapless Ohio Republican:
Marco Glibio joined in to say something, glib, about illegal immigration. But it was Ted Cruz who then took a bat at the illegal immigration ball to hit a homerun:
Cruz: I’m Tired Of Being Told I’m Anti-Immigrant. It’s Offensive
“The Democrats are laughing because if Republicans join Democrats as the party of amnesty, we will lose,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz said at FOX Business’ debate on Tuesday night. “And you know, I understand that when the mainstream media covers immigration, it doesn’t often see it as an economic issue. But I can tell you for millions of Americans at home, watching this, it is a very personal economic issue. And I will say the politics of it would be very, very different if a bunch of lawyers or bankers were crossing the Rio Grande.”
“Or if a bunch of people with journalism degrees were coming over and driving down the wages in the press,” Cruz said to laughter. “Then we would see stories about the economic calamity that is befalling our nation.”
“And I will say for those of us who believe people ought to come to this country legally and we should enforce the law, we’re tired of being told, it is anti-immigrant. It’s offensive,” Cruz said to applause from the audience.
“I am the son of an immigrant who came legally from Cuba to seek the American dream.,” he said. “And we can embrace legal immigration while believing in the rule of law.“
Cruz’ response was very effective. So is Cruz the big winner on immigration? Not quite. Subsequent events and political calculations give Trump the win.
After the debate two lines of opportunity have opened for Trump. The first is open warfare on illegal immigration between Ted Cruz and Marco Glibio as they battle to eliminate each other. Second, Ben Carson made a mistake by aligning himself with Kasich, Bush, Rubio on illegal immigration and attacking Donald Trump. That’s the positioning Trump needed and wanted.
First, Cruz versus Rubio on illegal immigration as they battle and weaken themselves:
“I think for voters that are looking for someone who’s consistent and true, I’m the only one on that stage who’s always opposed amnesty,” Mr. Cruz said in an interview on Fox News after the debate, underlining his opposition to the bipartisan immigration bill that Mr. Rubio helped write in the Senate.
Mr. Cruz insisted that he “led the fight against amnesty in Congress with Chuck Schumer and the establishment Republicans,” a cloaked shot at his fellow senator.
Cruz is engaged in a coordinated attack to take out Glibio:
Without calling out his Senate colleague by name, Cruz twice took subtle digs at Rubio during the Fox Business Network debate. At one point, he warned against Republicans who would turn the GOP into “the party of amnesty” — without specifically mentioning that Rubio had championed a bill that would have provided undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship…
“Our record on amnesty is clear and consistent and [Rubio’s] is not as clear and consistent,” [Cruz spokesman Rick] Tyler said. “He was for the Gang of Eight bill, then he said he wasn’t. Then he said he was for a step-by-step approach.” He continued to list the litany of alleged flip-flops before concluding of Rubio, “He essentially has the same position as the president.”
Via the Right Scoop, enjoy six minutes below of Cruz laying Rubio out this morning on Laura Ingraham’s show, replete with a scriptural reference. Not only was Rubio’s Gang of Eight bill the same old comprehensive garbage that screwed border hawks in 1986, Cruz says, but Rubio joined with the other seven members in opposing all of his amendments to strengthen the security parts of the bill. Which is true: Every time a comprehensive immigration bill comes together in the Senate, the bipartisan coalition behind it agrees to kill off amendments for fear that letting one through from either party will operate as a poison pill. If Cruz’s security amendments had been adopted, Democrats who would have otherwise supported the bill would have bailed and it would have failed. (For Democrats, stronger immigration enforcement is a dealbreaker.) Part of the deal in joining the Gang for Rubio, McCain, Graham, and Flake was systematically defeating any amendment that would upset the balance of the deal they’d struck with Schumer, even if it came from the right. So Cruz’s amendments went down the drain. And now Cruz is going to rub Rubio’s face in it. [snip]
True, Cruz doesn’t support a path to citizenship as Rubio does, but many border hawks will tell you that’s a distinction without much of a meaningful difference. The key for citizenship is giving illegals a foot in the door with legalization; once they have the right to stay here, the right to become citizens will eventually follow as Congress comes under pressure to make it happen. Cruz has also been careful not to go too far right in his broader rhetoric about immigration, knowing that he’s got a real shot at the nomination and will be hit hard on this subject in the general election. Trump has called for deporting all 11 million — but not Cruz. Scott Walker flirted with the idea of reducing legal immigration, a la Jeff Sessions — but not Cruz. Lots of conservatives talk about immigration as a cultural issue — but not Cruz, or at least, not nearly as much as he talks about it as an economic issue. (Which he did two days ago at the debate.) By focusing so much in his public comments on opposing a path to citizenship and demanding more border security, Cruz has craftily managed to convince a lot of righties, I think, that he’s coming at this issue roughly from the same place that Trump and Tom Tancredo. Not so, as some of his competitors in the field have started to notice. Rubio’s going to make sure now that a lot more people notice.
Cruz, who some in the establishment think will eventually take down Trump, is currently engaged in a battle against Glibio. Trump will have a good giggle and watch as Glibio will bloody Ted Cruz, via Youtube:
The Times asked him what we should do about the 11 million and he referred them to his amendment about work permits and green cards. Huh. Doesn’t sound like a guy who supports Trump-style mass deportation to me. But it’s hard to say because, somehow, in 2015, three years into Ted Cruz’s Senate career and many months into his presidential campaign, we still don’t have a clear idea of what he wants to do about illegal immigrants. That’s odd, no? For a guy who loves to talk and is constantly patting himself on the back for taking bold stands, he’s been strangely quiet on that topic. Go figure.
Team Cruz’s spin about his amendment is part of a little game they’re playing, I think. During the primaries, they’re going to tell conservatives that the amendment was nothing more than a ploy designed to show that Democrats care about a path to citizenship. Don’t read anything into it. Once he becomes the nominee, though, they’re going to turn around and tell undecided centrists, who will be inundated with Democratic attack ads that Cruz hates illegals, that Cruz was actually behind the amendment 100 percent. Big fan of work permits and green cards, that Sen. Cruz. And God help the border-hawk RINO like me who dares to point out next year that he talked out of both sides of his mouths on the subject, as that’ll be deemed high treason in the midst of a brutal election battle for the future of America.
Exit question via Harry Enten: Did Cruz move too soon in attacking Rubio on immigration? Rubio’s going to spend weeks now arguing that Cruz isn’t much different than he is on immigration, which would be fine except that Trump’s still at 30 percent in the polls and is seen overwhelmingly by Republicans as the candidate who’d handle immigration best. If Rubio succeeds in framing Cruz as squishy on immigration (if not quite as squishy as he himself is), it’s a golden opportunity for Trump to jump in and attack both of them as pro-amnesty RINOs. Maybe Cruz should have waited until Trump had faded to launch this war. Assuming that Trump ever does fade, that is.
No candidate is safe from Youtube. Trump can sit back and watch Glibio bloody Cruz as Cruz bloodies Glibio. But that’s not the best part of GOP debate #4’s aftershocks for Donald Trump. Consider Ben Carson.
Cruz is viewed by some as the eventual heir to demised Trump’s voters. If the battle ever comes to Cruz v. Trump, it will be a bloody Cruz courtesy of Glibio that Trump will beat up on illegal immigration. It’s even worse for Ben Carson as Ben Carson has attacked Trump on illegal immigration:
A day after the fourth GOP debate, Ben Carson took a hatchet to Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants living in the United States. [snip]
“I think they hurt Donald Trump in the long run,” Carson said, referring to the deportation plans. “I think there are enough people who know that there are others in the race that are very reasonable. I don’t think he necessarily is the representation of the Republican Party — far from it.” [snip]
“The people that are here, the 11.5 million people here, rounding them up and deporting them may sound good to some people,” Carson said. “But it’s not pragmatic.”
“It also affects the farming industry, the hospitality industry. So, you know, we have to be pragmatic as a nation. There’s no reason that they should have to live in the shadows,” Carson said.
The famed neurosurgeon doubled down on comments made earlier Wednesday during a press availability in Lynchburg, Va., after his convocation speech at Liberty University, during which he argued that those illegal immigrants who have a “pristine record” should be able to stay in the U.S. as guest workers.
“If they have a pristine record, there’s no reason they can’t get registered, pay a back tax penalty and pay taxes going forward, and be able to remain here as guest workers,” said Carson, who currently sits fourth in the Examiner’s latest power rankings.
“If they want to become American citizens and they want to have voting rights, then they should have to do the same thing as anybody else,” Carson said.
Carson doesn’t seem to understand that he advocates the failed Gang of Eight bill that has so devastated Marco Glibio. Glibio was a golden boy until he went along with comprehensive amnesty reform a.k.a. comprehensive immigration reform.
For Donald Trump it is golden. Along with Trump, Ben Carson is the only candidate in the top tier of candidates. Now that Carson has attacked Trump on his presumed signature issue it is open warfare. It’s on: Carson slams Trump on deportations, calls for “pragmatic” immigration policy
This may be the first breaking point in the primaries; it’s difficult to imagine that the race will be unaffected by Carson’s move, and any significant change in direction will say volumes about the Republican primary electorate.
So what will the Republican primary electorate say? There are significant clues:
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio won Tuesday’s night primetime Republican debate, according to an overnight poll of Internet users who watched the contest, but Mr. Trump came out as the favorite among Republicans and left the best impression about his ability to serve as president.
Some 24% of debate-viewers named Mr. Trump and 23% picked Mr. Rubio as the winner of the eight-candidate event, which was sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and Fox Business News. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson followed, with 13% declaring each to have won.
Mr. Trump’s lead in the Internet survey was larger among debate-watchers who said they’d vote in a Republican primary.
Among those GOP voters, Mr. Trump was declared the winner by 28%, with 23% naming Mr. Rubio. Mr. Cruz followed, with 16%, while Mr. Carson had 14%.
That’s a kinda sorta scientific poll. But it’s significance pales when compared to a scientific YouGov poll on immigration:
Republicans trust Trump on immigration
Trump’s attitude to illegal immigrants resonates strongly with Republicans, but not with Hispanics
Republican businessman Donald Trump and his statements opposing immigration have the support of Republicans – in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll Trump is viewed as the GOP candidate Republicans trust most to handle immigration – and by an extremely wide margin. Trump’s margin on this issue has only increased since the summer.
Half of Republicans view Trump as the candidate who can best handle immigration, more than four times the percentage who name Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the son of immigrants, who is in second place, far behind Trump. Only 5% believe former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would do the best job on immigration.
Perhaps that should not be a surprise. As they did last summer, Republicans overwhelmingly agree with the statement Trump made then: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re sending people that have lots of problems. They’re bringing drugs. They’re brings crime. They’re rapists.” In the poll question, Trump’s name was not associated with the statement. Republicans overwhelmingly disagree with Bush’s statement that was made about the same time: “Yes, illegal immigrants broke the law, but it’s not a felony. It’s an act of love, it’s an act of commitment to your family…” [snip]
Republicans are far more likely than the rest of the public to view illegal immigration as a very serious problem for the country (70% of Republicans say it is, compared with 46% overall). And many also believe illegal immigrants are more likely than others to commit violent crimes (49% of Republicans versus 29% overall). 57% of Republicans believe immigration from Mexico has a negative impact on the U.S. economy; 37% of all adults do.
That poll and the realization that Donald Trump is far from a summer fling is why the Washington Post published an article about the “panic” in the GOP establishment. The GOP establishment is in such a panic over the collapse of Jeb Bush and the failure of the “fix” for JeBush that now then consider the exhumation of Mitt Romney. That’s almost as funny as the Obama plan to counter Hillary Clinton with Joe Biden.
The GOP establishment is in a crisis. The fix for JeBush failed. Glibio’s only hope is mass amnesia on illegal immigration if he is to become the JeBushito candidate. Meanwhile Trump won’t go away and the Republican primary electorate insists on a wall built Trump strong. And Ben Carson is increasingly a halfway house to Trump and about to implode on the same issue that destroyed Glibio and JeBush. And it’s not only Republican voters that see Trump as the strongest Republican nominee. Democratic primary voters believe Trump is the most difficult to beat:
But which Republican presidential candidate would be the most challenging for the Democratic nominee? At this point, Democratic primary voters say it’s Donald Trump: 31 percent say he would be the most difficult Republican for a Democratic nominee to beat. Ben Carson (15 percent) is a distant second, followed by Marco Rubio (13 percent) and Jeb Bush (13 percent).
Both Clinton and Sanders supporters view Trump as the Republican that poses the most difficult challenge.
The Democratic Party debate will be on Saturday night and Thanksgiving looms nearer and nearer. The Summer of Trump seems never to end. After the 4th GOP debate Trump is stronger than ever and positioned to beat the rest of the primary field.