Last week Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 had the best week by far. Not so for Jeb Bush who had the worst week ever. Sad Jeb Bush: I’ve got a lot of other cool things I could be doing instead of negative presidential campaigning. He shoulda listened to his mother who told him not to run. Mama Bush once publicly declared “We’ve had enough Bushes.” She warned that if Jeb! ran “He’ll get all our enemies, half of our friends.” She should have added “That ain’t the way to have fun, son.”
“Craziest party” indeed. Poor Jeb! He thought he had the crown fixed up for him by the GOP establishment. But now, he might as well be called Jeb Bash, for all the beatings he’s fallen to. But are the whines a profitable luxury for him to indulge in at this point in his miserable, failing, campaign?
JeBush is so entitled that he entirely misses the point. Republican primary voters don’t want more “things done”. What the people voting in the primary JeBush is running in want is for the “things done” already to largely be undone. But JeBush does not get this rather obvious observation. Republican voters are yelling “Stop. Enough.” JeBush say ‘Faster Faster More More’.
And, and it’s an important “and” JeBush says what he says without energy or urgency. Trump sees the low energy JeBush and retweets this devastating Vine:
Donald J. Trump and his on target acid comments is not the most devastating problem for JeBush. Who or what is the biggest problem for JeBush right now? The biggest problem for JeBush is the very SuperPac JeBush created.
Remember, after JeBush announced last December he had six months of active cooperation with his Right To Rise SuperPac and he raised over $100 million for the organization. Run by Mike Murphy who knows how to promote himself but not how to win for national candidates, the JeBush SuperPac produced this ad to supercharge the JeBush campaign:
This ad attempts to image build JeBush into a big thinking energetic leader with big ideas and resolve to carry them out. What it does is the opposite of what was intended.
Instead of JeBush as a leader with resolve we see a bored audience and a permanently hunched over JeBush eerily doing a hoot owl impression. “Who? Who? Who?” will do such and such asks JeBush. The only thing missing is a little mouse running across the floor and JeBush swooping down from his perch with his hunched over shoulders and his owlish eyebrows to devour the little thing.
Trite “inspirational” images are interspersed in the ad because a little flag waving iconic images are supposed to do what JeBush cannot inspire in the viewer. The image we are left to savor from this ad, the after-memory, is JeBush’s skinny ass. The ad does not end with the inspirational Statue of Liberty nor JeBush’s face filling the screen as the “Jeb!” graphic brands the ad. Instead the ad ends with JeBush giving us his back and that skinny little ass. More than a million SuperPac dollars will pay to air that ad. With friends like “Right to Rise” who, who, who, needs enemies?
This is not the first ad from Right to Rise that hurts JeBush more than helps. It’s little wonder that the more these ads run, the more JeBush’s poll position plummets.
And plummet they have. Followed by the death watch:
Less than four months before primary voting begins, Bush has sunk into
second-tier status in the GOP nominating bout. He’s stuck in a single-digit polling slump, idling between fourth and fifth place in the
15-candidate field, even after his allies have blitzed the television airwaves with more than $5 million in advertising. His much heralded fundraising prowess has also been neutralized, as he’s raised essentially as much money as Sen. Ted Cruz this last quarter and saved less than the
rogue upstart Ben Carson. [snip]
Adds an unaligned lobbyist familiar with Bush’s gubernatorial runs: “Jeb learns but it takes him time. He internalized the lessons from losing to [Lawton] Chiles and was a much better candidate his second time out. He’s patient and disciplined and smart but could not ad-lib a fart. He will think of how to win this race sometime in 2017 and be ready to rumble in 2020.”
Bush’s last card to play – electability – seems to have withered away, too. Tested against Clinton in a battery of hypothetical general election matchups in the state of Pennsylvania earlier this month, Trump, Carson and Rubio beat her. Bush lost.
Then, at the start of this week, a gut-punching set of numbers landed in the inboxes of Bush’s team: The highly respected NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that more GOP primary voters say they can’t see themselves supporting Bush (44 percent) than Trump (36 percent) – a staggering reversal from June.
Even among Bush’s admirers, there’s a gathering sense he can’t win this race anymore – that in order for him to become the nominee, his rivals have to lose it. [snip]
The inevitability of Bush as the nominee has been supplanted by the inevitability held by Bush’s team that Trump and Carson will slowly burn out, simply due to the normal laws of politics.
But as Stipanovich says, “There is a gathering body of evidence that that time may not come. We keep waiting. If the party goes crazy or continues to be crazy, it will not nominate Jeb.”
That ain’t the way to have fun, son.
Rabid anti-Trump writers want JeBush to drop out:
Trump Shouldn’t Drop Out. Jeb Should.
Establishment Republicans want Donald Trump to drop out of the race; they want Jeb Bush to stay in it to win it. Precisely the opposite needs to happen as soon as humanly possible.
Jeb Bush’s badly flailing campaign has now foundered on the rocks of the Donald Trump candidacy – and Jeb is feeling the pain. [snip]
Trump, meanwhile, has led the Republican field for nearly four months. As Rush Limbaugh said this morning, if Bush had Trump’s numbers, the establishment would already have declared the race over.
Trump’s comments about Bush are an acid test for the establishment Republicans who want another Bush presidency: if Jeb can’t stop the Trump juggernaut, how will he stop Hillary’s far more powerful juggernaut? If he can’t rebut Trump on Iraq and the war on terror, how can he hope to do so against Clinton, backed by the full power of the mainstream media? The same holds true for the entire Republican field: if they can’t defeat Trump’s economic populist nonsense in a Republican primary, how can they hope to defeat the same proposals from the left? Trump should not be the Republican candidate because he’s simply not conservative – but he’s providing a stiff test for anyone who would grab the brass ring. [snip]
Jeb and the rest of the establishment cling to the slim hope that Trump will somehow implode. He won’t. Neither will Carson. If they want to stop the Trump machine, they’ll need to drop the latest Bush in favor of somebody new.
New pawns to “stop Trump” are not the answer. The right question: Bush and the establishment can’t stop Trump but they think they can take on the general election? That’s why the “death watch”:
Last week I posted on the the devastating Florida poll that showed Jeb Bush as fourth place and in single digits in his home state. I also posted on how his fundraising profile is dangerously skewed towards large donors who have already maxed out their campaign contribution. This all followed a decision by the Bush campaign to cut staff, cut staff salaries, and generally pare back expenses. The next sign of flopsweat setting in was the come-to-Jesus conclave held in Houston this weekend featuring two former presidents and all the big Bush bundlers. The outcome of that meeting seems to point even more strongly to Jeb Bush withdrawing from the race.
And always Trump, stomping on JeBush and being impolite with truth bombs:
Trump hits Bush over fundraising woes, “mommy and daddy” help
JeBush is not having fun. Majorities of “insiders” see Trump winning the nomination. Trump is trumping. As we wrote Trump is walking away with the Clinton Coalition. Ron Brownstein at National Journal explains:
Both national and state polls show Trump opening a substantial lead among Republican voters without a college education almost everywhere. And in almost all cases, Trump is winning more support from noncollege Republicans than any candidate is attracting from Republican voters with at least a four-year education. “It’s a challenge to Republicans that nobody has consolidated the college-graduate vote against Trump,” says Glen Bolger, a longtime GOP pollster skeptical of the front-runner.
In other words, Trump is cementing a strong blue-collar base, while the white-collar voters relatively more resistant to him have yet to unify around any single alternative. That disparity is critical because in both the 2008 and 2012 GOP nomination fights, voters with and without a four-year college degree each cast almost exactly half of the total primary votes, according to cumulative analyses of exit poll results by ABC pollster Gary Langer. With the two wings evenly matched in size, Trump’s greater success at consolidating his “bracket” explains much of his advantage in the polls.
White working class support is one way to explain Trump’s rise. As we’ve also written, Trump does destroy the Republican Party as the GOP establishment understands it because once Obama grabbed the Democratic Party many of those voters fled and the increase of new voters has changed the GOP. Changes have consequences. Trump is the New Republican Party:
There’s a better way to divide the GOP candidates into two groups: Donald Trump and everyone else. Trump’s support is predominantly from voters who aren’t Republican rank-and-file voters. His supporters have an ideologically distinct profile, according to Pew’s analysis: more moderate, more secular, more blue-collar. They’re also less reliable caucus and primary voters. These voters are not new to the Republican Party. They used to be called Reagan Democrats; they voted for Pat Buchanan in the 1992 and 1996 Republican primaries, and they comprised much of Mitt Romney’s opposition in the 2012 nomination battle. They’re growing as a share of the GOP electorate: Bob Dole and George W. Bush won about 60 percent of the overall GOP primary vote; Romney only won 52 percent in 2012.
There’s good reason why Trump has run on a nontraditional Republican platform, one that’s skeptical of military intervention, hostile to illegal immigration, and opposed to free trade deals. Last week, he even attacked former President George W. Bush for not anticipating the 9/11 attacks. Trump has been advocating hiking taxes on wealthy corporations and individuals. His past support of abortion rights, and admission that he hasn’t sought forgiveness from God, don’t endear him to evangelicals. But these positions match the ideological profile of his supporters. Trump is no dummy; he’s running a campaign geared towards voters that many Republican candidates, with their emphases on tax cuts, free trade, and immigration reform, have perennially ignored.
New polls from Iowa have Trump in second place to Ben Carson. That might be attributable to the influence of evangelicals in Iowa, or the result of millions of dollars in attack ads against Trump. Or it could simply be the result that Ben Carson’s campaign is entirely an Iowa concoction. We’ll see how Carson does on Wednesday’s debate to heightened scrutiny. Trump wins everywhere (other than for now in Iowa) and Trump campaigns to large rallies in many states. Unless the Iowa results are replicated in national polls and polls in other states Trump is and will remain tops. After Wednesday we might see the exit of turkeys such as Rand Paul, Chris Christie, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, and maybe even JeBush.
That’s why sandwiched between attacks on his hair, a Vanity Fair article suggests Trump might be top of tops all the way to the top:
Here’s Why Donald Trump Really Could Be Elected President
Forget what the party elites and pundits have been saying—Trump has a pretty clear path to not just the Republican nomination, but also the White House. [snip]
To be clear, at the moment Trump is the absolute and clear front-runner for the Republican nomination. Trump has been the front-runner longer and by a more significant margin than any of the many flameouts he is often compared to from past campaigns. Comments made by Trump, which would have tanked any other politician’s campaign, seem to bounce off him, and even make him more compelling to certain voters.
Assuming Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, some inside the Beltway believe there is a possibility that she might win states like Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana, which Obama won or only narrowly lost in 2008. But with Trump in the race, all of those states—which are more red than they were in ’08—are likely out for Democrats. Swing states like Colorado and Virginia are clear toss-ups. There are few states that Romney or McCain won where Trump, as the Republican nominee, wouldn’t be in the running, and an analysis of other key states shows that Trump’s in far better position than his detractors would like to admit. If Trump were to win every state that Romney won, Trump would stand today at 206 electoral votes, with 55 electoral votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Similarly, Trump does not necessarily lose in a single toss-up state versus Hillary Clinton and, in fact, is seemingly competitive in many.
Virginia is trending blue, but could be a toss-up, particularly given the tale of Dave Brat, whose success in 2014 could be read as a harbinger of Trump. Colorado will have high Republican turnout, given that it is home to what’s likely to be one of the country’s most contested Senate races—which could make it more competitive than it should be, considering Trump’s comments about Latinos. Depending on how well Trump shows in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, they too could be in play. In two of the remaining states, Wisconsin and Nevada, any Democratic nominee will have an upper hand—particularly Clinton. But Trump will be able to effectively contest, particularly in a place like Wisconsin, with working-class white voters who elected Scott Walker three times in four years. Finally, Pennsylvania, which has been leaning ever-more blue and will likely go blue this year, will nonetheless require Clinton to spend some resources and time there—taking away from her efforts in other swing states.
Which all means that the election comes down to Florida and Ohio, two states where Trump has significant advantages. In Florida (29 electoral votes), he is a part-time resident and is polling better than the state’s former governor and sitting U.S. senator. He’s also currently neck and neck with Clinton in polls of the state’s likely voters. The state’s important Hispanic population is more skewed toward people of Cuban rather than Mexican ancestry—some of whom may not be as turned off by Trump’s anti-Mexican immigration comments as Hispanics in other states. The Florida voting population includes a high percentage of evangelicals (a group with whom Trump seems to have had baffling success). [snip]
In Ohio (18 electoral votes), it’s a similar story. Unions, which have long helped Democrats succeed in Ohio, are growing weaker nationwide. Trump has obvious appeal to Reagan Democrats with his “make America great again” message. As in Florida, polls indicate that he’s almost tied with Clinton in Ohio. Trump’s additional appeal here is his brand of aspirational wealth. While there is debate over his actual net worth, for millions of everyday Americans across the country, Donald Trump is synonymous with wealth and success. As was brilliantly shown in a focus group of New Hampshire voters, Trump’s resonance with today’s version of the American Dream is hugely aspirational for people who are unemployed and financially hurting. And it stands in contrast to other candidates releasing economic white papers.
The article cites the potential of Trump to advance due to his financial resources ready to be deployed at any moment. When Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination in 2012 he was essentially penniless for months and sustained damaging attacks. That won’t happen to Trump. But it is the second “secret weapon” that unites all the theories of Trump’s success:
The second secret weapon Trump has at his disposal is an underrated potential to turn out massive numbers of new voters. Trump truly is “yuuge.” He has an audience that follows him from network to network, and he’s seemingly gotten more people to tune into debates than ever. Almost every time he appears on a TV show, the program experiences a massive ratings jump. He gave Jimmy Fallon one of his highest-rated episodes since his debut. While very few real celebrities (sorry, Clay Aiken) have run for office, those who have possess a compelling track record: Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse Ventura, Al Franken, Sonny Bono. Trump would, in fact, be one of the best-known celebrities ever to run for public office (as of July, Trump’s name ID was 92 percent, roughly the same as Clinton’s).
Across the country, and in Florida and Ohio in particular, Trump is well positioned to turn out new voters. He’s been adept at using social media to engage new supporters. But while social media can turn people on, it alone cannot turn people out. To actually bring potential Trump voters to the polls will require a sophisticated digital and data operation and a massive registration campaign. Candidates like Clinton and Bush are building those efforts now—and have been for months. At least as of his most recent F.E.C. report, Trump has not started building this team, and the talent who would be needed to work on such a project may no longer be available.
But as Trump would remind us, he knows the best people, he has so much money, and he has the best negotiating tactics in the world. While I’m not predicting Donald Trump will win the presidency, it’s time for us all to realize that President Trump is not only not implausible—it’s very possible.
“President Trump”, contrary to Big Media derision is possible. But you knew that. “President JeBush” is at best, not likely. “President Hillary?”
Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 had a great week last week. But to have that great week and the great Big Media plaudits today, the general election was put in great peril. The peril grows as last week recedes:
Clinton: ‘I will go as far as I can, even beyond Obama’ to welcome illegal immigrants
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, pledging to go “beyond President Obama” in embracing illegal immigrants, said that she will use executive powers as president to go around Congress to end deportations.
At Saturday’s Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner, she also called illegals “law abiding.”
During a period of her 25 minute address when she was listing her political promises, she turned to immigration to say that she would go farther than Obama to protect the 12 million illegal immigrants in America, especially families.
“I am going to back and support what President Obama has done to protect Dreamers and their families, to use executive action to prevent deportation,” Clinton said to cheers in the audience of about 6,000.
“If we can not get comprehensive immigration reform as we need, and as we should, with a real path to citizenship that will actually grow our economy then I will go as far as I can, even beyond President Obama, to make sure law abiding, decent, hard working people in this country are not ripped away from their families,” she added.
An Obama third term or rather a worse Obama third term is not the CHANGE the country wants. We thought we were all in agreement on that.
Maybe we were dreaming.
A primary applause line today that will be paid for in November 2016, or worse, hurt the country if it is carried out, is not CHANGE for the better. America wants CHANGE, for the better – not false HOPE that takes us from bad to worst.