Update: Breaking: Biden to make statement at White House imminently; Update: Not running. The Biden Rose Garden announcement, with Barack Obama at his side, should send chills up Hillary Clinton’s side.
Biden’s speech was more of a stump speech than a farewell. Biden attacked Hillary regularly these past few days. Today was no different. Biden attacked Hillary repeatedly placing the onus of Republican antagonism on her. To make such a claim on the day before Hillary testifies before congress was not an act of a friend. Joe Biden has called Republicans and the Tea Party terrorists and other assorted insults but today he was the voice of peace and unity – very much the routine Barack Obama used to win in 2008.
Ominously, Biden declared he will stay in the process to defend Barack Obama and Barack Obama’s policies. Biden demanded candidates for the presidential nomination defend Barack Obama and Obama’s policies. This means Biden will attack Hillary any time she decides to run as herself and not the Obama Third Term, if Hillary ever has such intention of which there is scant evidence. Hillary will now have to run as the Obama Third Term or attack dog Biden will chew on her throat.
Worst for Hillary, it sounded to us as if Biden is running for president. Biden said his reason for not running was that the window has closed. Biden basically said it was too late to get in and get all that needed to be done accomplished for a full fledged presidential run. Biden’s announcement, with Obama at his side, was a presidential campaign announcement minus the one sentence in which he demurred. It’s almost as if Biden thinks at some point something will happen to remove Hillary and put his candidacy in play.
Trump leads two new national Republican polls with 27 and 28 percent. For months, in all national polls and all statewide polls Trump is #1.
As we predicted long before conventional wisdom caught up to us this past weekend – Yes, Donald Trump looks to be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. Yes, the GOP primary was “fixed” for JeBush but Donald J. Trump kinda messed that plan up. Yes, Carly Fiorina is a fizzle. Yes, Marco Rubio can’t get it up enough to win. Yes, Hillary Clinton’s biggest enemy is Barack Obama. Yes, Hillary2016 has thrown away the winning Clinton coalition for the losing Obama situation comedy demographic. And now, Donald J. Trump is busy building a winning general election electoral fortress with key elements of the former Clinton coalition:
SHOCK POLL: Trump Blue Collar Support highest since FDR in 1930s
It may come as a surprise to many that Donald J Trump’s support from Blue Collar Americans (those involved in trades, manufacturing, industry, and labor) is the highest since any candidate since FDR in 1936 since Gallup began polling.
Trump has consistently shown his appeal to the blue collar sector of the economy, pulling ahead of even Clinton and Sanders in “rust belt” states like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennslyvania.
These states have the highest share of “Blue Collar” voters in the nation, and many of them have not voted Republican in over 20 years.
Trump’s appeal to blue collar workers is in the 60% range, higher than any candidate since Franklin Roosevelt won a massive landslide in 1936 on the support of the Blue Collar voter.
Trump doesn’t do well with just the average “White Joe Sixpack,” he also gains a large share of black voters and even hispanics (25%, 37%)
The white working class should have been the bedrock of Hillary2016. The white working class support for Hillary Clinton in 2008 provided grand victories of 40 point margins when Hillary was most wounded. Now Hillary2016 has repeatedly abandoned those voters.
Jim Webb as he euthanized his sad imitation of a campaign today to threaten an independent run towards failure reminded all of the abandonment of the white working class by the once respectful Democratic Party:
Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, Webb argued the Democratic Party has moved away from “millions of dedicated, hard-working Americans.”
“For this reason, I am withdrawing from any consideration of being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the presidency,” he said.
“The very nature of our democracy is under siege due to the power structure and the money that finances both political parities,” Webb said, adding later that it is “time for a new Declaration of Independence — not from an outside power but from the paralysis of a federal system that no longer serves the interests of the vast majority of the American people.”
Webb, who said he couldn’t see himself endorsing any other candidate, said he is considering an independent run and will spend the “next couple of weeks talking to people, people I have not felt comfortable talking with as a Democratic Party candidate.” [snip]
Mudcat Saunders, Webb’s close friend and informal adviser, told CNN he last spoke with Webb this weekend but the senator never said he planned to drop out of the Democratic contest.
“We were just b—-ing about the way our party has moved. They have given up on the South, they have given up on the heartland, on rural America,” Saunders said, expressing both his and Webb’s view. “It is a math game and the math is not going to work. It might work once and it might work twice. We just don’t like the Democratic Party’s strategy.”
He added, “I feel confident that Jim would say that same thing. Just to take a whole group of people and throw them out of the equation is wrong. That is what the party has done throughout small towns and rural America.”
The bedrock of a winning coalition, the people Barack Obama dismissed in 2008 as “bitter” and clinging to their guns and Bibles, used to be the FDR coalition and the Clinton coalition. No longer. They are now part of the Trump Triumph. Hillary2016 has abandoned them so they have abandoned her.
The counter argument to Trump winning the white working class vote is that Trump won’t get the nomination. At every turn we hear of a new pawn up to the job of destroying Donald J. Trump. The latest and biggest pawn in the long line of dead pawns is Marco Rubio. Rubio is in a pitched battle with JeBush because the winner of that fight will presumably be the sole anti-Trump candidate left standing.
Trump of course has not targeted Marco Rubio yet. What we have seen are the preliminary jabs from Trump, akin to a naval bombardment before invasion of a beachhead. Trump has only mocked Rubio with image recasting insults. When Trump unloads on Rubio on issues such as illegal immigration there won’t be much left of Marco. Not that there is much to Marco Rubio other than a trail of Obama style stinky sweat and a wide Obama style smile. Put aside the sweat and the smile, and Politico reports, there is a wake up call:
Marco Rubio’s wake-up call
For all the buzz surrounding his campaign, the Florida senator isn’t raising enough money and hasn’t yet built much of a field organization.
The hype surrounding Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign just smashed into the wall of reality.
First, the Florida senator’s team insisted it had stashed more campaign cash in the bank than fellow Floridian Jeb Bush — only it hadn’t. The campaign also told reporters it had raised $6 million in the last fundraising quarter — also not true. That turned out to be an overly generous rounding of the underwhelming real figure: $5.7 million.
Yet those aren’t even the most troublesome parts of the Florida senator’s most recent campaign finance report. Rubio may be slowly rising in the polls, but his third quarter filing revealed a campaign that’s also out-manned by many of its rivals in the early-voting states. His staff is largely concentrated in Washington, with just a small umbrella of on-the-ground, early-state operatives — and he’s already at a disadvantage because he hasn’t invested the time in early-state visits that some of his opponents have. [snip]
“If Trump-mania subsides, you’ve got to have a mechanism and a structure,” said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina Republican strategist who isn’t affiliated with any campaign.
If not Rubio the anti-Trump argument is still Jeb Bush. As we have noted, JeBush is clumsy at best. If we needed more evidence of the catastrophe of the Jeb Bush campaign we received it in an astounding interview. Mike Murphy, who is more of a wrecking ball for campaigns than a help, provided the working theory of the Jeb Bush campaign’s SuperPac:
Mike Murphy of Right to Rise Explains His Theory That Jeb Bush Is Still the Candidate to Beat
Donald Trump, Murphy says, is a “zombie front-runner.” And the punditocracy pays much too much attention to polls. Part one of a frank Q&A with the man who runs Bush’s super-PAC. [snip]
How has Trump’s entry changed the race?
It created a false zombie front-runner. He’s dead politically, he’ll never be president of the United States, ever. By definition I don’t think you can be a front-runner if you’re totally un-electable. I think there’s there an a-priori logic problem in that.
Has he been dead since he got in?
I think so, yeah. So there’s no meaningful outcome to it. But the question is what kind of catalyst is it? It’s a huge amount of noise and so we’re trying to find the signal in all this. You’ve seen Trump start to drop now. I think it’ll be a very slow drop, but I think he’ll continue to drop and the question is: is he ready to lose primaries, will he stay in? And nobody knows the answer to that. [snip]
You were quoted in the Washington Post a couple of months ago saying, Trump is “other people’s problem.”
Oh, I’d love a two-way race with Trump at the end, yeah.
Mike Murphy is a windbag paid to distort reality along with Big Media. That Murphy believes Trump is losing support or that JeBush/CommonCore/IllegalImmigration will beat Trump one-on-one is delusional. The only value to the Murphy interview is that it confirms what we have written about the original plan of JeBush to win the nomination via a fix involving the Florida March 15 winner take all primary:
During that period, you expect several candidates to be clumped together as far as delegates are concerned.
Yeah, for a while, for a while. I mean February’s not really about delegates, it’s about media momentum.
When do you expect that to change?
March 15 is the big day. On the 16th, I don’t think anybody will have a mathematical lock, but there definitely will be a very strong leading candidate.
You’re describing a scenario where a candidate who has never finished higher than third or fourth in any particular state could still be the leading candidate on March 16?
But Jeb could be in a strong position after the 15th, even if he hasn’t won anything before March 1?
Well, I don’t want to play the hypothetical game.
I think we’ve already started playing it. In terms of how you’re describing the physics of this race, it sounds as though you believe it’s possible that somebody who finished, say, second, third, or even fourth across the first four states could still do very well on March 1 and have a resource advantage to leverage on March 15.
I think with a big caveat. Somebody who in February was in the top three or top two over the three big contests and had resources to get a message out could still compete strongly if they have a bunch of resources in March. We have a holistic approach: we don’t have a big iron-curtain wall between February and March. We see Feb. 1 to March 15, 45 days, as our period to seize the nomination and get in front—and there are a lot of states and a lot of congressional districts and a lot of targeting to that. One of the reasons we’ve worked so hard and Jeb, frankly, has inspired so many people to donate to us is so we have the resources to pursue that campaign. Most of these other guys are all running on spec. We’re at a point now where we’re significantly funded for those 45 days, cash in the bank today. Nobody else is in that situation in this race. Nobody’s close.
Again, no one is that stupid. Mike Murphy cannot possibly believe that the failed Rudy Giuliani strategy will work for JeBush when it failed for Rudy. Rudy too thought that he could lose and lose and lose then win Florida and win it all. Reality is that Rudy Giuliani never made it to Florida. His loses in the first few states sealed his fate. Yet now Mike Murphy believes that JeBush losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, etc. will lead to victory?
Mike Murphy might have a plausible argument that he is still tethered somewhat to reality if only Donald J. Trump was not in the race. Trump has total long term leads in the polls, a top notch organization, and more than enough money from his own pocket, not to mention the donations from small donors, to obliterate JeBush in Florida let alone in the states leading to and from Florida. This reality is why more and more what we wrote long ago is now conventional wisdom:
GOP vet: Trump win looking more and more likely
“I’ve resisted the idea that Donald Trump could and would become the Republican nominee,” writes GOP strategist Alex Castellanos in an email assessment of the presidential race. “Unhappily, I’ve changed my mind.”
Castellanos, who once said flatly that “Trump is not going to be the nominee,” writes “the odds of Trump’s success have increased and been validated in the past few weeks.”
The key indicator, Castellanos says, is the fact that Trump dipped in the polls and now appears to be rising again. “In my experience, that tells us something important,” Castellanos explains:
Republican voters went through a period of doubt about Trump, an understandable window of buyer’s remorse. They went shopping for someone else — but returned, finding no acceptable alternative who could match Trump’s bad-boy strength and his capacity to bring indispensable change. … Fearing they have only one last chance to rescue their country, they found no one else as big as their problem.
“In my experience, once voters doubt but return, doubting again is less likely,” Castellanos concludes. “A candidate’s vote hardens.”
Castellanos, who played a key role in Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign, believes either Trump or Ben Carson will win the Iowa caucuses. If it’s Trump, Castellanos sees him going on to win New Hampshire and then the nomination. [snip]
If Trump wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, Castellanos sees a “desperate GOP establishment” trying to settle on an “anti-Trump,” perhaps Marco Rubio, to bring Trump down. But that would be a very difficult task. “History is not kind to candidates who play the long game,” Castellanos writes. “No GOP nominee in modern history has failed to win either Iowa or NH. Period.”
Castellanos is not alone in acceptance of what few other than Big Pink saw. Even in the most fortified anti-Trump hangouts the levels of grief have hit the acceptance stage:
The Establishment Thinks the Unthinkable: Trump Could Win the Nomination
It began as whispers in hushed corners: Could it ever happen? And now, just three months from the Iowa caucuses, members of the Republican establishment are starting to give voice to an increasingly common belief that Donald Trump, once dismissed as joke, a carnival barker, and a circus freak, might very well win the nomination.
“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in 2008.
Rollins is not alone in his views. “Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.” [snip]
“I know all of us dismissed Trump, early on, all of the so-called experts,” Fox News’s Chris Wallace said Sunday. “‘Summer fling,’ ‘momentary amusement.’” But Wallace, who interviewed Trump late last week and aired portions of the interview on his show Sunday, said he finds himself feeling differently now. “As I watched that interview and I heard what he had to say . . . I am beginning to believe he could be elected president of the United States,” he said. [snip]
Wallace was struck by the sheer force of Trump’s personality, but there are other reasons to think he has a real shot at the nomination. Poll after poll this election cycle has registered the distaste of Republican voters for political experience; they prefer an outsider with a fresh approach to a battle-tested veteran.
The very same GOP establishment that now understands Trump might win and is poised to win has concocted a plan to take down Trump with tens of millions of dollars in ads:
Panicked establishment gets ready for war against Trump
This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party’s nominee.
“The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win,” noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. “I’ve heard that from everybody. I don’t hear anybody saying he can’t win the nomination anymore.”
That doesn’t mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party’s likely nominee.
Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump’s candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?
“Massive resistance,” was the answer. “He’s not a conservative.”
Donald J. Trump is not a conservative the GOP establishment likes nor a liberal the Democratic Party likes. Donald Trump will destroy the Republican Party as we now know it because Barack Obama destroyed the Democratic Party as we once knew it. The GOP has long contained a struggle between it’s populist voters and the big money Chamber of Commerce types that want a low wage society. Donald Trump is against a low wage society and therefore against illegal immigration. The white working class understands this. Enough of the black working class and the Latino working class understands this too.
The white working class chased out of the Democratic Party by Obama’s Kook coalition had no where to go but to the Republican Party. Now the former Democrats join in solidarity with the long time populist Republicans – ergo TRUMP.
Neither Hillary Clinton nor Hillary2016 understands any of this. Hillary’s biggest enemy is Barack Obama. But Hillary is clueless as she panders with nonsense talk. One moment Hillary is for Australian style gun confiscation then a moment later she says she only thinks gun confiscation is an idea to be considered but which she may or may not reject or something or something something. Mush. Maybe Hillary will declare she will consider confiscation of Bibles and turn us all into Obama’s “bitter clingers” before the year is out.
Using Biden to Block the Clintons from Regaining the White House
As he approaches the end of his career in elected office, Barack Obama is in a truly precarious position: He is going to exit the White House having accomplished almost nothing substantive on the policy front — his health-care program is not going to survive, Gitmo is not going to be closed, we are not leaving Afghanistan, and he is sending troops into Iraq — and outside of his perch at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, his party is in ruins: In Congress and the states, the Democrats are in their weakest position in modern political history. If the Democrats do not win the presidency in 2016, there are going to be some very uncomfortable questions about what exactly Obama & Co. accomplished, and at what price. [snip]
When the time came, Obama’s people were going to give Obama’s people what Obama’s people wanted, and everybody knew it.
But the Clintons aren’t Obama’s people. Bill Clinton thinks of Obama as his own political Stepin Fetchit, the guy who only a few years ago would have been “carrying our bags.” Herself was Obama’s main obstacle to power. (No, Senator McCain most certainly was not.) Obama did not build this machine to hand it over to the Clintons on a cold winter morning in 2017. That puts him in a double bind: He has to make it beyond question that he and his clique now own the Democratic party — that the Clintons are just weird sad old 1990s relics like those ancient AOL CDs that some youngsters ironically collect — but he also needs the Democrats to win the presidency in 2016 in order for the party to be worth owning. [snip]
The problem is that there is no one in the field to swoop in and lead the Democrats to victory in 2016. Obama has a personnel problem.
And that’s where Joe Biden comes in. Biden is the Obama guy who isn’t really an Obama guy — he was elected to the U.S. Senate when Barack Obama was eleven years old. He had a life and a political career before he hitched his wagon to the teapot messiah from Chicago, and though his is not the keenest mind in politics, he surely gets the game: If he gets in, he is to be reduced to a purely instrumental condition, an enabler of Obama’s last and most important political play, a placeholder keeping the chair warm until Obama’s people have settled on a real president.
Death throes. Yes, Joe Biden will not be the nominee. Yes, Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee. As we wrote, the real candidate of the Obama Party is hidden behind tapestries, her knives at the ready.
In 2008 Hillary Clinton survived and thrived because she marched alongside the white working class. Now, the white working class is marching with Donald J. Trump – towards victory.