American Horror Story: The CNBC #GOPDebate – Big Media Is The Enemy – And Why @RealDonaldTrump Won

Update II: RNC to NBC News: Get lost. It’s too late for the RNC and NBC. Trump has taught the candidates how to fight and how to negotiate. No going back.

In the general election both political parties should fight against Big Media. The general election candidates should freeze out Big Media blowhards and host their own debates. Big Media is the enemy!

The Sistas know Big Media is the enemy. Sistas still doing it by themselves for Trump:


Update: Real HOPE for real CHANGE. Great! Just Great! Big Media is the enemy. Great!:

Exclusive: GOP campaigns plot revolt against RNC

The Sunday evening meeting comes after an eruption of complaints by the candidates about the debates.

Republican presidential campaigns are planning to gather in Washington, D.C., on Sunday evening to plot how to alter their party’s messy debate process — and how to remove power from the hands of the Republican National Committee.

Not invited to the meeting: Anyone from the RNC, which many candidates have openly criticized in the hours since Wednesday’s CNBC debate in Boulder, Colorado — a chaotic, disorganized affair that was widely panned by political observers. [snip]

It was time, top aides to at least half a dozen of the candidates agreed, to begin discussing among themselves how the next debates should be structured and not leave it up to the RNC and television networks.

The gathering is being organized by advisers to the campaigns of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham, according to multiple sources involved in the planning. Others who are expected to attend, organizers say, are representatives for Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum.

The candidates have the power. They are the star attraction. Yes, they need Big Media attention but in the age of the internet and with all the money they can raise they can be their own Big Media. A Stephen Douglas v Lincoln style no holds, no surrender, take no prisoners extreme gladiatorial debate would attract so many eyeballs the Superbowl and World Series broadcasters would be jealous.


The Donald J. Trump effect. Possibly one of the great nights in American political history. We’ll explain. Donald J. Trump won. We’ll explain. All the candidates except John Kasich and Jeb Bush won. We’ll explain.

So why was last night one of the “great nights in American political history”? Because Big Media is the enemy and last night was the night one large portion of the political establishment woke up. Donald Trump is having a strong effect on his fellow candidates. They’re learning how to fight. Big Media is the enemy. The political candidates have not only woken up but possibly will take action against the Big Media enemy:

After CNBC debacle, Carson camp vows revolt over debates

Boulder, Colo. — After a performance by CNBC moderators that Republicans characterized as both biased and inept, a manager for a top GOP campaign says he will try to organize other campaigns to force the Republican National Committee to make “wholesale change” in the debate process.

In an interview shortly after the debate, Barry Bennett, manager of the Ben Carson campaign, called the session here in Colorado “unfair to everyone” and said the current debate structure should not remain in place. “I think the families need to get together here, because these debates as structured by the RNC are not helping the party,” Bennett said. “There’s not enough time to talk about your plans, there’s no presentation. It’s just a slugfest. All we do is change moderators. And the trendline is horrific. So I think there needs to be wholesale change here.”

Bennett said he will call Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski Thursday to propose a unified call for change. “Corey and I talk regularly, so I will talk to him,” Bennett said. “I will call Frank Sadler (Carly Fiorina’s campaign manager), I will call those guys and say listen, we can choose our own network and our own format. We don’t need to be led around like prize steers.”

“I think at this point, if five or six of us get together, who generate the largest portion of the audience, we can force change,” Bennett said.

Finally. If Hillary2016 had any self-awareness, any sense of self-preservation, any common sense whatsoever, Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 would wish the Republican candidates luck and offer her support for the war against Big Media. In 2008 Hillary Clinton was the target of Big Media attacks and Barack Obama had his pillows fluffed. Although now Big Media will shill for Hillary2016 that won’t last long. Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 know Big Media is the enemy and should strategically move in for the kill even when an attack against Big Media is not the immediate problem. It will be though, at some point, and action now would put the animals back in their cages.

The Big Media animals have to be muzzled, or saddled, caged, or put down. Last night was proof of that. It’s not liberal bias entirely to blame here. Yes, the liberal bias of Big Media is a problem. But the Fox News planned-attack-and-structured-as-a-hate-fest-against-Donald-Trump-debate is proof that the problem is Big Media in all its guises. So hooray for the Ben Carson campaign for the open declaration of war against Big Media.

Changing the moderators at the debates is like changing the deck chairs on the Titanic. Change is needed. It’s not the deck chairs that need to be changed it is that the Captain on the bridge has to be killed and thrown overboard. Big Media is the Captain in charge of the political process now. It’s time for the candidates to take charge if the political party leadership continues to bow before the Big Media power.

Last night, with the exception of John Kasich and collaborator JeBush, the candidates on stage were overall magnificent in their response to Big Media. Donald Trump was the first to fight back because he was the first one attacked by comic book Harwood. Donald Trump was also the last because even at the end the Big Media lies did not stop and neither did Trump’s counterattacks.

After Trump batted down comic book guy Harwood, Ted Cruz took up the banner. Chris Christie snacked on the moderators. On the issue that mattered – Big Media – the candidates stood tall and proud.

The Big Media moderators are horrible:

John Harwood in particular distinguished himself by not just asking tough questions, but asking them in the most insulting possible way — interrupting candidates mid-reply, offering his own editorializing, and shouting down candidates attempting to defend themselves. Chris Christie seemed to capture the mood of the candidates and the crowd when — angry at Harwood’s hectoring — he finally said “even in New Jersey what you’re doing is rude.”

Big Media for too long has been allowed to be the dog that wags the tail. Big Media is what comes from under the tail and last night we began to see a much needed battle begin:

Trump started the battle. The other candidates followed.

Trump began the battle. Trump continued the battle with his closing statement and then he took on comic book guy John Harwood.

That’s how Donald J. Trump won. Not only did he teach the other candidates how to fight back. Trump started the battle.

Also, Donald J. Trump won the debate because, let’s face it, at this point Trump has to keep the status quo. Trump is ahead. Wednesday’s debate is what keeps the race frozen and if the race remains frozen with Trump on top, Trump wins.

Jeb Bush? It was a disaster for Bushie. He has the stink of loser all over him now. We now expect JeBush to be the Thanksgiving turkey and that he will be officially out of the race on that national holiday.

Kasich? Kasich was a big loser too.

Kasich thought the moderators did a good job? He’s a fool. The reason Kasich is happy is because he got lots of time to speak. Here is the amount of time and the number of questions for each candidate:

Fiorina 10:32 6
Rubio 10:10 9
Kasich 9:42 6
Trump 9:26 11
Christie 8:31 6
Huckabee 7:39 3
Cruz 7:34 4
Carson 7:2 8
Bush 6:39 6
Paul 6:15 5

The frontrunners (Trump, Carson) got less time than they deserved but that works to their advantage. The Big Media “kill Trump” candidates got the most time which won’t help them anyway no matter how much the GOP establishment tries to pump them up or Big Media uses them to take down Trump. Jeb Bush is officially irrelevant. Big Media pines for Carly Fizzles to kill trump so she gets time. Rubio gets time because he is the replacement Bush for Big Media illegal immigration amnesty activists. John Kasich gets lots of time because he indicated before the debate he was going to take on Trump. Kasich did take on Trump at the debate. It did not go well for John Kasich to take on Trump:

That’s why no one dares take on Trump directly anymore. Trump fights and is teaching the other candidates how to fight. Trump sat on Kasich like an elephant on a grape.

Donald J. Trump is teaching the losers how to fight. Donald Trump is leading the fight. Big Media must be fought and beaten. The winners will be the viewers and the voters.


#GOPDebate #3: Great News For @RealDonaldTrump On Polls And @RealBenCarson

Update: Open thread: The do-or-die debate; Update: Jeb to hit Rubio? CNBC Republican Presidential Debate – Live Stream Video Link and Open Discussion…. LIVE REACTIONS: CNBC “Main Stage” GOP Debate. With those links it looks like we won’t be the only ones watching while most Americans watch baseball. Here’s a livestream link:


Donald J. Trump is so smart it hurts. Trump jokes with Iowans about poll dip: “What the hell are you people doing to me?” More on why this is so smart in a moment.

First, let’s go to the Trump hate news. The #1 Trump hater in Big Media on the Right is probably Rick Wilson. In an attempt to insult Donald J. Trump the hatin’ Rick Wilson regurgitates an observation we made a while back:

Tonight’s debate will feature a number of real presidential contenders, and a greater number of people who should drop out already.

There are six candidates in the Republican primary who deserve to be there for various reasons. [snip]

Ben Carson, because he’s the superego of the GOP to Trump’s id, and while his “campaign” isn’t much to look at, he’s a safe harbor for a lot of GOP voters right now who are sick of D.C. but can’t go the full Trump. (And you never go full Trump.)

That is exactly the point we made about a month ago immediately before the second GOP debate:

Second, what explains Dr. Ben Carson’s rise in the polls? The main reason for the poll rise is that Carson is a pawn in the game. His job is to destroy Trump, then JeBush and the Republican establishment will crush Gentle Ben in an afternoon. But the main reason for the rise of Ben Carson is that he is a halfway house on the road to Donald Trump. For GOP voters that hate the Republican establishment but don’t like Donald Trump’s style or are not 100% sold on The Donald, they are for now parked in the Ben Carson lot but eventually they will find themselves in the Trump camp.

Think of Ben Carson as that starter home before you move on into the big mansion you always wanted. Or Call Ben Carson the gateway drug to the hard stuff. Or think of Ben Carson as the little rivulet that leads to that great wide ocean. Ben Carson is not the end of the road, not even the stopover on the road – Ben Carson is the road – to Donald J. Trump.

Edward Luce at the Financial Times apocalypticly calls it the “End of Days for Republican establishment”:

The two outsiders continue to take roughly half of the Republican field between them, leaving the other 14 candidates to fight over the scraps. [snip]

Mr Carson’s faith, and Mr Trump’s evident lack of piety, explain the former’s solid popularity in Iowa. According to surveys, more than a third of registered Iowa Republicans are born-again evangelicals.

New Hampshire is a different matter. Its Republican party tends to be more libertarian. The “Presbyterian” Mr Trump is still in the lead there.

But these are details. As the Republicans limber up for their third prime time debate on Wednesday evening, the rivalry that will rivet most viewers is between the only two men on stage who have never held elected office.

Opinion polls can no longer be dismissed as fleeting moods. Mr Trump has led the Republican field now for almost 130 days. It is all too easy to imagine him sustaining that lead in the remaining 96 days before the Iowa caucus.

Almost the same applies to Mr Carson, who has stayed in second place — and now first, according to one poll — for most of the past three months.

No other candidate, including Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, who many now see as the establishment’s only viable choice, has managed to sustain a showing in double digits.

Nor can the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire be overstated. As Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican operative, has reminded his fellow establishmentarians, no Republican presidential nominee has ever taken the prize without winning one or other of the two early states.

Whatever fluidity there are in Iowa polls or even if the fluidity expands there is no doubt that Trump is still tops and likely to remain tops. Recent polls show Trump at 32% versus 18% for Carson with only Rubio barely into double digits at 11%:

Trump leads GOP nationally ahead of third debate

Most Republican voters want someone from outside of the political establishment to win their party’s nomination for the presidential election

Another new poll show Trump 14 points ahead of his nearest competitor (Trump at 35.6 percent, Carson 21.7%, Rubio 10.7%)

Why outsiders? Why is JeBush in such trouble? Why is the GOP establishment so despised? Consider Romney/Ryan 2012.

Today there was a vote in the Republican conference in the House and Paul Ryan received only 199 valid House votes. Ryan lost lots of votes and deserved to lose even more. Most politics watchers know that Paul Ryan is playing “good cop” to Boner’s “bad cop” in the latest budget deal GOP leaders have conspired with Barack Obama to pass. Young, attractive, Paul Ryan is not doing what the GOP voters want but he will play pretend along with other “leaders”.

Paul Ryan was the VP candidate to Mitt Romney. Romney lost to Obama as we warned (note our consistent remarks about Trump in 2012) in large part because with Romney’s history of RomneyCare the GOP lost their #1 issue, the battle against ObamaCare. Many thought we were unfair to Romney on RomneyCare/ObamaCare. But now Mitt Romney has made the point for us as only Willard Romney can:

Thomas G. Stemberg, who cofounded Staples Inc. and invented the office superstore, died Friday at his home in Chestnut Hill, two years after he was diagnosed with gastric cancer. [snip]

In 2012, Mr. Stemberg spoke at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, trumpeting his friend Romney’s contributions to his business dream.

Romney also credited Mr. Stemberg with persuading him to push for health care reform in Massachusetts when he was governor.

Romney recalled that shortly after he was elected, Mr. Stemberg asked him why he ran for governor. Romney said he wanted to help people, and Mr. Stemberg replied that if he really wanted to help, he should give everyone access to health care, which Romney said he hadn’t really considered before.

“Without Tom pushing it, I don’t think we would have had Romneycare,” Romney said. “Without Romneycare, I don’t think we would have Obamacare. So without Tom, a lot of people wouldn’t have health insurance.”

So after all the lies Willard Romney finally rats out the truth. Romney never attacked Obama on ObamaCare with vigor because Romney was the father of ObamaCare. Still Romney/Ryan danced and lied repeatedly in 2012 pretending they too hated ObamaCare. Romney/Ryan lied to the voters. That’s why the GOP establishment is in such vile repute.

Mitt Romney lies, Barack Obama lies, have led to Donald J. Trump. Trump hits hard against these liars. That’s why Trump is hated by the political establishments of Big Media and both political parties. The only ones that like Trump are the voters.

And what’s not to like about Trump? After a few days of stupefaction at the rise of Ben Carson in a few polls, Trump has recovered his stride. In Iowa Trump is having a blast and being super smart:

He could tear into Carson, which is risky given how well-liked Carson is. He could give up on the state and focus on New Hampshire instead, declaring Iowans a bunch of losers or whatever. Or he could do this, teasing them about his downturn and slyly goofing on his own image as a man who accepts nothing less than total victory when he competes. If I lose, he kids them, “I’ll never speak to you people again.” Nearly everything he says here, from harping on his own poll trouble lately to jokingly threatening to hold it against voters if they don’t support him, is unthinkable from a traditional politician. [snip]

In both cases, even at a moment when he’s at a disadvantage, Trump is shrewd enough to handle it in a way that reminds everyone how different he is from all of the polished Washington slicksters in the field. Then, to top it off, he showed the crowd that he’s not always in 24/7 blowhard mode by stepping down from the podium to speak to a wounded veteran face to face about the VA.

Trump, in the second video says if he wins Iowa he wins the nomination. He’s right. Can Trump win Iowa? You betcha:

Expanding the electorate to turn out the blue-collar Republicans who didn’t show up for Romney is indeed the way Trump wins, and his team knows it. That’s one thing to bear in mind with all polls going forward, especially polls of likely voters: Who is and isn’t a “likely voter” may be less certain this cycle because of Trump’s X factor. If he really is making strides in getting disaffected people to vote then all of the polls are understating his support.

In the third video, this is the introduction:

Donald Trump Offers to personally help Veteran at Sioux Iowa rally

Coleen Reich, a Sioux City retiree, said ahead of the event that she was unsure about Trump because of the negative reaction he showed to the poll results, saying it wasn’t presidential.

I don’t like his name calling,” she said. “We did that as children, but then we were taught better manners and we grew out of it.”

But after the event, she said with tears in her eyes that she was ready to vote for Trump because of his speech. She said her husband was a prisoner of war, and a moment in which Trump responded to a question from a disabled veteran moved her.

That veteran was having trouble getting an appointment through the Department of Veterans Affairs, a family member said. Trump asked them to write their information on a note card, and he would “pressure the VA like you wouldn’t believe” until the agency had solved the problem.

That’s smart communication from Trump. A (probably for Ben Carson) voter did not like Trump’s “name calling”. But after the event, “with tears in her eyes” the voter is, um, vote ready for Trump.

For the GOP debate(s) tonight (the losers at 6:00 p.m. ET, Trump and the rest at 8:00) on CNBC few questions remain. The one we think matters is “will anyone be watching?” The World Series, which we are told had an exciting game last night that almost never ended might take all the attention away from the debate.

The few of us watching the GOP debate will see John Kasich try to be his new angry self:

“I’ve about had it with these people,” Kasich said at the rally in Westerville, Ohio. “We got one candidate that says we ought to abolish Medicaid and Medicare. You ever heard of anything so crazy as that? Telling our people in this country who are seniors, who are about to be seniors that we’re going to abolish Medicaid and Medicare?”

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has acknowledged that he would like to gut Medicare.

Kasich went on, saying, “We got one person saying we ought to have a 10 percent flat tax that will drive up the deficit in this country by trillions of dollars” and there’s another challenger in the field who “says we ought to take 10 or 11 [million] people and pick them up — I don’t know where we’re going to go, their homes, their apartments — we’re going to pick them up and scream at them to get out of our country. That’s crazy. That is just crazy.

We hope Kasich attacks Trump, Carson, everyone. We will be amused. We expect lots and lots of fights:

So Cruz will now pump up his efforts with evangelicals in Iowa to try to go around Trump by beating Carson. JeBush will try to go around Trump by beating up Rubio. Rubio will get around Trump by outrunning JeBush as the tiger continues to chase them both.

So expect fights. The candidates need to attack each other to survive as Trump continues to romp. Trump will be under attack too probably by the Big Media “moderators”.

Carly “fizzles” Fiorina will be there. Rand Paul might be making his last appearance before he heads back to Kentucky. Ditto Chris Christie. The other losers like Huckabee and blah, blah, whoever will make appearances but no one will care. It’s outsider Trump and Carson on stage.

Jeb Bush? The guy who had this primary fixed for him? We wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to hoot like an owl.

We’ll be watching. Tonight. 8:00 p.m. ET. CNBC.


At #BenghaziCommittee #Hillary2016 Survives, Even As @RealDonaldTrump Thrives, @JeBBush Dies, Part II

Last week Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 had the best week by far. Not so for Jeb Bush who had the worst week ever. Sad Jeb Bush: I’ve got a lot of other cool things I could be doing instead of negative presidential campaigning. He shoulda listened to his mother who told him not to run. Mama Bush once publicly declared “We’ve had enough Bushes.” She warned that if Jeb! ran “He’ll get all our enemies, half of our friends.” She should have added “That ain’t the way to have fun, son.”

“Craziest party” indeed. Poor Jeb! He thought he had the crown fixed up for him by the GOP establishment. But now, he might as well be called Jeb Bash, for all the beatings he’s fallen to. But are the whines a profitable luxury for him to indulge in at this point in his miserable, failing, campaign?

JeBush is so entitled that he entirely misses the point. Republican primary voters don’t want more “things done”. What the people voting in the primary JeBush is running in want is for the “things done” already to largely be undone. But JeBush does not get this rather obvious observation. Republican voters are yelling “Stop. Enough.” JeBush say ‘Faster Faster More More’.

And, and it’s an important “and” JeBush says what he says without energy or urgency. Trump sees the low energy JeBush and retweets this devastating Vine:

Donald J. Trump and his on target acid comments is not the most devastating problem for JeBush. Who or what is the biggest problem for JeBush right now? The biggest problem for JeBush is the very SuperPac JeBush created.

Remember, after JeBush announced last December he had six months of active cooperation with his Right To Rise SuperPac and he raised over $100 million for the organization. Run by Mike Murphy who knows how to promote himself but not how to win for national candidates, the JeBush SuperPac produced this ad to supercharge the JeBush campaign:

This ad attempts to image build JeBush into a big thinking energetic leader with big ideas and resolve to carry them out. What it does is the opposite of what was intended.

Instead of JeBush as a leader with resolve we see a bored audience and a permanently hunched over JeBush eerily doing a hoot owl impression. “Who? Who? Who?” will do such and such asks JeBush. The only thing missing is a little mouse running across the floor and JeBush swooping down from his perch with his hunched over shoulders and his owlish eyebrows to devour the little thing.

Trite “inspirational” images are interspersed in the ad because a little flag waving iconic images are supposed to do what JeBush cannot inspire in the viewer. The image we are left to savor from this ad, the after-memory, is JeBush’s skinny ass. The ad does not end with the inspirational Statue of Liberty nor JeBush’s face filling the screen as the “Jeb!” graphic brands the ad. Instead the ad ends with JeBush giving us his back and that skinny little ass. More than a million SuperPac dollars will pay to air that ad. With friends like “Right to Rise” who, who, who, needs enemies?

This is not the first ad from Right to Rise that hurts JeBush more than helps. It’s little wonder that the more these ads run, the more JeBush’s poll position plummets.

And plummet they have. Followed by the death watch:

Less than four months before primary voting begins, Bush has sunk into
second-tier status in the GOP nominating bout. He’s stuck in a single-digit polling slump, idling between fourth and fifth place in the
15-candidate field, even after his allies have blitzed the television airwaves with more than $5 million in advertising. His much heralded fundraising prowess has also been neutralized, as he’s raised essentially as much money as Sen. Ted Cruz this last quarter and saved less than the
rogue upstart Ben Carson. [snip]

Adds an unaligned lobbyist familiar with Bush’s gubernatorial runs: “Jeb learns but it takes him time. He internalized the lessons from losing to [Lawton] Chiles and was a much better candidate his second time out. He’s patient and disciplined and smart but could not ad-lib a fart. He will think of how to win this race sometime in 2017 and be ready to rumble in 2020.”

Bush’s last card to play – electability – seems to have withered away, too. Tested against Clinton in a battery of hypothetical general election matchups in the state of Pennsylvania earlier this month, Trump, Carson and Rubio beat her. Bush lost.

Then, at the start of this week, a gut-punching set of numbers landed in the inboxes of Bush’s team: The highly respected NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that more GOP primary voters say they can’t see themselves supporting Bush (44 percent) than Trump (36 percent) – a staggering reversal from June.

Even among Bush’s admirers, there’s a gathering sense he can’t win this race anymore – that in order for him to become the nominee, his rivals have to lose it. [snip]

The inevitability of Bush as the nominee has been supplanted by the inevitability held by Bush’s team that Trump and Carson will slowly burn out, simply due to the normal laws of politics.

But as Stipanovich says, “There is a gathering body of evidence that that time may not come. We keep waiting. If the party goes crazy or continues to be crazy, it will not nominate Jeb.”

That ain’t the way to have fun, son.

Rabid anti-Trump writers want JeBush to drop out:

Trump Shouldn’t Drop Out. Jeb Should.

Establishment Republicans want Donald Trump to drop out of the race; they want Jeb Bush to stay in it to win it. Precisely the opposite needs to happen as soon as humanly possible.

Jeb Bush’s badly flailing campaign has now foundered on the rocks of the Donald Trump candidacy – and Jeb is feeling the pain. [snip]

Trump, meanwhile, has led the Republican field for nearly four months. As Rush Limbaugh said this morning, if Bush had Trump’s numbers, the establishment would already have declared the race over.

Trump’s comments about Bush are an acid test for the establishment Republicans who want another Bush presidency: if Jeb can’t stop the Trump juggernaut, how will he stop Hillary’s far more powerful juggernaut? If he can’t rebut Trump on Iraq and the war on terror, how can he hope to do so against Clinton, backed by the full power of the mainstream media? The same holds true for the entire Republican field: if they can’t defeat Trump’s economic populist nonsense in a Republican primary, how can they hope to defeat the same proposals from the left? Trump should not be the Republican candidate because he’s simply not conservative – but he’s providing a stiff test for anyone who would grab the brass ring. [snip]

Jeb and the rest of the establishment cling to the slim hope that Trump will somehow implode. He won’t. Neither will Carson. If they want to stop the Trump machine, they’ll need to drop the latest Bush in favor of somebody new.

New pawns to “stop Trump” are not the answer. The right question: Bush and the establishment can’t stop Trump but they think they can take on the general election? That’s why the “death watch”:

Last week I posted on the the devastating Florida poll that showed Jeb Bush as fourth place and in single digits in his home state. I also posted on how his fundraising profile is dangerously skewed towards large donors who have already maxed out their campaign contribution. This all followed a decision by the Bush campaign to cut staff, cut staff salaries, and generally pare back expenses. The next sign of flopsweat setting in was the come-to-Jesus conclave held in Houston this weekend featuring two former presidents and all the big Bush bundlers. The outcome of that meeting seems to point even more strongly to Jeb Bush withdrawing from the race.

And always Trump, stomping on JeBush and being impolite with truth bombs:

Trump hits Bush over fundraising woes, “mommy and daddy” help

JeBush is not having fun. Majorities of “insiders” see Trump winning the nomination. Trump is trumping. As we wrote Trump is walking away with the Clinton Coalition. Ron Brownstein at National Journal explains:

Both na­tion­al and state polls show Trump open­ing a sub­stan­tial lead among Re­pub­lic­an voters without a col­lege edu­ca­tion al­most every­where. And in al­most all cases, Trump is win­ning more sup­port from non­col­lege Re­pub­lic­ans than any can­did­ate is at­tract­ing from Re­pub­lic­an voters with at least a four-year edu­ca­tion. “It’s a chal­lenge to Re­pub­lic­ans that nobody has con­sol­id­ated the col­lege-gradu­ate vote against Trump,” says Glen Bol­ger, a long­time GOP poll­ster skep­tic­al of the front-run­ner.

In oth­er words, Trump is ce­ment­ing a strong blue-col­lar base, while the white-col­lar voters re­l­at­ively more res­ist­ant to him have yet to uni­fy around any single al­tern­at­ive. That dis­par­ity is crit­ic­al be­cause in both the 2008 and 2012 GOP nom­in­a­tion fights, voters with and without a four-year col­lege de­gree each cast al­most ex­actly half of the total primary votes, ac­cord­ing to cu­mu­lat­ive ana­lyses of exit poll res­ults by ABC poll­ster Gary Langer. With the two wings evenly matched in size, Trump’s great­er suc­cess at con­sol­id­at­ing his “brack­et” ex­plains much of his ad­vant­age in the polls.

White working class support is one way to explain Trump’s rise. As we’ve also written, Trump does destroy the Republican Party as the GOP establishment understands it because once Obama grabbed the Democratic Party many of those voters fled and the increase of new voters has changed the GOP. Changes have consequences. Trump is the New Republican Party:

There’s a bet­ter way to di­vide the GOP can­did­ates in­to two groups: Don­ald Trump and every­one else. Trump’s sup­port is pre­dom­in­antly from voters who aren’t Re­pub­lic­an rank-and-file voters. His sup­port­ers have an ideo­lo­gic­ally dis­tinct pro­file, ac­cord­ing to Pew’s ana­lys­is: more mod­er­ate, more sec­u­lar, more blue-col­lar. They’re also less re­li­able caucus and primary voters. These voters are not new to the Re­pub­lic­an Party. They used to be called Re­agan Demo­crats; they voted for Pat Buchanan in the 1992 and 1996 Re­pub­lic­an primar­ies, and they com­prised much of Mitt Rom­ney’s op­pos­i­tion in the 2012 nom­in­a­tion battle. They’re grow­ing as a share of the GOP elect­or­ate: Bob Dole and George W. Bush won about 60 per­cent of the over­all GOP primary vote; Rom­ney only won 52 per­cent in 2012.

There’s good reas­on why Trump has run on a non­tra­di­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an plat­form, one that’s skep­tic­al of mil­it­ary in­ter­ven­tion, hos­tile to il­leg­al im­mig­ra­tion, and op­posed to free trade deals. Last week, he even at­tacked former Pres­id­ent George W. Bush for not an­ti­cip­at­ing the 9/11 at­tacks. Trump has been ad­voc­at­ing hik­ing taxes on wealthy cor­por­a­tions and in­di­vidu­als. His past sup­port of abor­tion rights, and ad­mis­sion that he hasn’t sought for­give­ness from God, don’t en­dear him to evan­gel­ic­als. But these po­s­i­tions match the ideo­lo­gic­al pro­file of his sup­port­ers. Trump is no dummy; he’s run­ning a cam­paign geared to­wards voters that many Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates, with their em­phases on tax cuts, free trade, and im­mig­ra­tion re­form, have per­en­ni­ally ig­nored.

New polls from Iowa have Trump in second place to Ben Carson. That might be attributable to the influence of evangelicals in Iowa, or the result of millions of dollars in attack ads against Trump. Or it could simply be the result that Ben Carson’s campaign is entirely an Iowa concoction. We’ll see how Carson does on Wednesday’s debate to heightened scrutiny. Trump wins everywhere (other than for now in Iowa) and Trump campaigns to large rallies in many states. Unless the Iowa results are replicated in national polls and polls in other states Trump is and will remain tops. After Wednesday we might see the exit of turkeys such as Rand Paul, Chris Christie, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, and maybe even JeBush.

That’s why sandwiched between attacks on his hair, a Vanity Fair article suggests Trump might be top of tops all the way to the top:

Here’s Why Donald Trump Really Could Be Elected President

Forget what the party elites and pundits have been saying—Trump has a pretty clear path to not just the Republican nomination, but also the White House. [snip]

To be clear, at the moment Trump is the absolute and clear front-runner for the Republican nomination. Trump has been the front-runner longer and by a more significant margin than any of the many flameouts he is often compared to from past campaigns. Comments made by Trump, which would have tanked any other politician’s campaign, seem to bounce off him, and even make him more compelling to certain voters.

Assuming Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, some inside the Beltway believe there is a possibility that she might win states like Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana, which Obama won or only narrowly lost in 2008. But with Trump in the race, all of those states—which are more red than they were in ’08—are likely out for Democrats. Swing states like Colorado and Virginia are clear toss-ups. There are few states that Romney or McCain won where Trump, as the Republican nominee, wouldn’t be in the running, and an analysis of other key states shows that Trump’s in far better position than his detractors would like to admit. If Trump were to win every state that Romney won, Trump would stand today at 206 electoral votes, with 55 electoral votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Similarly, Trump does not necessarily lose in a single toss-up state versus Hillary Clinton and, in fact, is seemingly competitive in many.

Virginia is trending blue, but could be a toss-up, particularly given the tale of Dave Brat, whose success in 2014 could be read as a harbinger of Trump. Colorado will have high Republican turnout, given that it is home to what’s likely to be one of the country’s most contested Senate races—which could make it more competitive than it should be, considering Trump’s comments about Latinos. Depending on how well Trump shows in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, they too could be in play. In two of the remaining states, Wisconsin and Nevada, any Democratic nominee will have an upper hand—particularly Clinton. But Trump will be able to effectively contest, particularly in a place like Wisconsin, with working-class white voters who elected Scott Walker three times in four years. Finally, Pennsylvania, which has been leaning ever-more blue and will likely go blue this year, will nonetheless require Clinton to spend some resources and time there—taking away from her efforts in other swing states.

Which all means that the election comes down to Florida and Ohio, two states where Trump has significant advantages. In Florida (29 electoral votes), he is a part-time resident and is polling better than the state’s former governor and sitting U.S. senator. He’s also currently neck and neck with Clinton in polls of the state’s likely voters. The state’s important Hispanic population is more skewed toward people of Cuban rather than Mexican ancestry—some of whom may not be as turned off by Trump’s anti-Mexican immigration comments as Hispanics in other states. The Florida voting population includes a high percentage of evangelicals (a group with whom Trump seems to have had baffling success). [snip]

In Ohio (18 electoral votes), it’s a similar story. Unions, which have long helped Democrats succeed in Ohio, are growing weaker nationwide. Trump has obvious appeal to Reagan Democrats with his “make America great again” message. As in Florida, polls indicate that he’s almost tied with Clinton in Ohio. Trump’s additional appeal here is his brand of aspirational wealth. While there is debate over his actual net worth, for millions of everyday Americans across the country, Donald Trump is synonymous with wealth and success. As was brilliantly shown in a focus group of New Hampshire voters, Trump’s resonance with today’s version of the American Dream is hugely aspirational for people who are unemployed and financially hurting. And it stands in contrast to other candidates releasing economic white papers.

The article cites the potential of Trump to advance due to his financial resources ready to be deployed at any moment. When Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination in 2012 he was essentially penniless for months and sustained damaging attacks. That won’t happen to Trump. But it is the second “secret weapon” that unites all the theories of Trump’s success:

The second secret weapon Trump has at his disposal is an underrated potential to turn out massive numbers of new voters. Trump truly is “yuuge.” He has an audience that follows him from network to network, and he’s seemingly gotten more people to tune into debates than ever. Almost every time he appears on a TV show, the program experiences a massive ratings jump. He gave Jimmy Fallon one of his highest-rated episodes since his debut. While very few real celebrities (sorry, Clay Aiken) have run for office, those who have possess a compelling track record: Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse Ventura, Al Franken, Sonny Bono. Trump would, in fact, be one of the best-known celebrities ever to run for public office (as of July, Trump’s name ID was 92 percent, roughly the same as Clinton’s).

Across the country, and in Florida and Ohio in particular, Trump is well positioned to turn out new voters. He’s been adept at using social media to engage new supporters. But while social media can turn people on, it alone cannot turn people out. To actually bring potential Trump voters to the polls will require a sophisticated digital and data operation and a massive registration campaign. Candidates like Clinton and Bush are building those efforts now—and have been for months. At least as of his most recent F.E.C. report, Trump has not started building this team, and the talent who would be needed to work on such a project may no longer be available.

But as Trump would remind us, he knows the best people, he has so much money, and he has the best negotiating tactics in the world. While I’m not predicting Donald Trump will win the presidency, it’s time for us all to realize that President Trump is not only not implausible—it’s very possible.

“President Trump”, contrary to Big Media derision is possible. But you knew that. “President JeBush” is at best, not likely. “President Hillary?”

Hillary Clinton and Hillary2016 had a great week last week. But to have that great week and the great Big Media plaudits today, the general election was put in great peril. The peril grows as last week recedes:

Clinton: ‘I will go as far as I can, even beyond Obama’ to welcome illegal immigrants

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, pledging to go “beyond President Obama” in embracing illegal immigrants, said that she will use executive powers as president to go around Congress to end deportations.

At Saturday’s Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner, she also called illegals “law abiding.”

During a period of her 25 minute address when she was listing her political promises, she turned to immigration to say that she would go farther than Obama to protect the 12 million illegal immigrants in America, especially families.

I am going to back and support what President Obama has done to protect Dreamers and their families, to use executive action to prevent deportation,” Clinton said to cheers in the audience of about 6,000.

“If we can not get comprehensive immigration reform as we need, and as we should, with a real path to citizenship that will actually grow our economy then I will go as far as I can, even beyond President Obama, to make sure law abiding, decent, hard working people in this country are not ripped away from their families,” she added.

An Obama third term or rather a worse Obama third term is not the CHANGE the country wants. We thought we were all in agreement on that.

Maybe not.

Maybe we were dreaming.

A primary applause line today that will be paid for in November 2016, or worse, hurt the country if it is carried out, is not CHANGE for the better. America wants CHANGE, for the better – not false HOPE that takes us from bad to worst.


At #BenghaziCommittee #Hillary2016 Survives, Even As @RealDonaldTrump Thrives, @JeBBush Dies, Part I

We don’t discuss Benghazi nor emails much. Why? Because whether you believe Benghazi and Hillary’s emails are the most important issue in the world or you think these are partisan political attacks and nothing more, the bottom line analysis for us that they will not determine the 2016 presidential elections. We’ve written about and will continue to discuss what will determine the 2016 presidential elections and what will indeed destroy Hillary Clinton as well as Trump’s spectacular rise and JeBush’s spectacular fall. We’ll do so again today. But first a brief break to discuss Benghazi and emails.

We’ve written about Benghazi and emails and such when they happened so we’re not going to waste too much time today on these matters. But we will summarize our analysis of the entire situation. Years ago, before Hillary Clinton testified before another congressional committee on the Benghazi mess we wrote that only a special committee of very few congresspersons with a past as experienced prosecutors could unravel this knot. We stated that a strict search for the truth and nothing but the truth would suffice. We also predicted the Issa chaired hearing would fail. Not much really changed from then. Yes, a special committee was appointed (and recently undermined by other Republicans who declared it to be a partisan witch hunt against Hillary Clinton). But instead of focusing on the central and most important issue related to Benghazi the special committee when off chasing geese in deep woods. In the end, both committees failed to get the truth of what happened in Benghazi.

Since the deaths of an American ambassador in Benghazi we stated that Benghazi was not a silly issue to be swept away. This is what we wrote in May 2013:

Uncovering the truth about what happened in Benghazi on September 11 is important because even if Big Media and Obama Dimocrats don’t think it is important – the terrorist killers of Americans in Benghazi know the truth and they are emboldened when our political system denies the truth.

What contempt for the American way of government these terrorist killers must have as they witness the lies and corruption that our political system cannot uncover, or rather, works like sleepless rust to keep covered.

These terrorist killers must laugh at American power and American “justice” as they see the apparatus of the “government of the people, government by the people, government for the people” protect them and shift the blame for terrorist murders of American officials on an American who exercised his rights and produced a Youtube video Innocence of Muslims. That American is now in prison even as the friend of Boston terrorist killer Tdouchebag Tsarnaev is free on bail.

That entire article is worth a read if you want our complete analysis of Benghazi because it pretty much answers every question we are constantly asked to comment on.

A quick summary of Benghazi from our point of view:

(1) The only question that matters is “What moron idiot too stupid or too corrupt to be president does not prepare for a terrorist attack on America on September 11?” In that one question, easy for every American to understand the Benghazi attack is made relevant.

(2) Answer question #1.

That’s it. That is the entire Benghazi scandal in a nutshell. If Hillary is the moron idiot who did not prepare for possible attacks against American installations, particularly one in a frazzled Libya, then she is too stupid to be president. Or, if it was Barack Obama just before his reelection who in order to maintain the illusion of a nonexistent peace with the Muslim world did not issue orders or prevented the issuance of orders for a world-wide alert at all American embassies, consulates, military installations, and other offices of the American government or American institutions, then Barack Obama is not fit to be president.

“September 11” is the beginning and end of the Benghazi investigation. If a congressional committee cannot get an answer as to why there was not a world-wide alert, let alone an alert for extra precautions in Benghazi Libya, then we expect, and get, only failure and clowns.

Our final observations on Benghazi and Hillary are simple. No committee of the congress is going to be able to outsmart Hillary Clinton. She is too smart. She was a lawyer who went to court to defend clients as well as corporate entities. She is too smart to be caught. For this latest committee hearing Hillary spent seven days in preparation knowing from certain committee members what evidence and questions would be thrown at her. The notion or expectation that in the cumbersome committee process somehow this latest Benghazi committee would somehow imitate the fictitious and phony Perry Mason antics was a delusion.

What do we think happened in Benghazi? We wrote at the end of our 2013 article cited above:

Our operating theory is that Benghazi was a CIA operation in a State Department compound for who knows what. Possibly an Iran/contra type operation to get munitions and supplies to Syrian “rebels” is what was going on. Maybe it was about Chad, who knows? That’s what we need an thorough investigation for.

Again, we stick by that belief. We’ll add that maybe it was the very people we armed and helped who also attacked the installation in Benghazi (“Ansar al-Sharia is claiming responsibility.” It’s interesting; Mr. Khattala, one of the guys arrested in charge actually belonged to that group.) The embarrassment over that fact might be what aided the cover-up of the truth. But in the end it was Obama and the Obama presidential campaign that caused the Benghazi attack to succeed because Barack Obama did not issue a world-wide alert for special security and precautions on September 11.

Of course, the most important thing we have written, the most relevant observation about Benghazi is the one the fewest seem able to digest. And happily, it is at the center of the 2016 presidential campaign.

What the mopes in Congress, what most Republicans, what most Democrats, what most overall can’t seem to understand in their bones – yes, they will accept it at times intellectually – but then they forget because it is not in their bones, is the way to destroy Hillary2016. We’ve written about it so often. Yet, the lesson is constantly forgotten.

Benghazi will not destroy Hillary2016. “Scandals” will not stop Hillary2016 (and if you don’t believe us read what anti-Hillary Jay Cost has to say on this repeatedly failed tactic.)

The only way to destroy Hillary2016 is to tie Hillary to Barack Obama. Tie Hillary2016 to the Obama situation comedy demographic coalition and Hillary is toast. It is that simple.

The Obama goons want Hillary to be the Obama third term and any deviation (as Joe Biden declared) will be forcefully attacked. The sensible rest of the country does not want an Obama third term. Therein lies the trick. Attach Hillary to Obama and Hillary2016 is dead as a door nail.

Attach Hillary to Obama and Hillary2016 is dead as a door nail is a concept Hillary Clinton herself either does not seem to understand, or, is unable to get around. At the first and hopefully last debate (there is another debate scheduled for November but now that the electrifying Lincoln Chaffee and the mesmerizing Jim Webb have pulled out, is there any reason to go on with more debates?) Hillary Clinton managed to tie herself tightly to Barack Obama. After Biden’s threats with Obama at his side it increasingly appears that Hillary will run a disastrous third term strategy.

The third term strategy will prove to be a disaster. To prove our case let’s bring our first witness, Mr. Donald J. Trump.

Recently Donald J. Trump declared that President George W. Bush was the president when the World Trade Center went down. Donald J. Trump did not state that President George W. Bush was responsible for the attack but the “Buck Stops Here” responsibility argument had bite. Immediately Jeb! responded. It was a trap Jeb! fell into.

Recall, the reason why the Jeb! campaign is not the Bush! campaign is because Jeb! did not want to run as the third George W. Bush. Jeb! shaved the “Bush”.

Donald J. Trump with his wily trap forced Jeb! to become Bush! JeBush is the third Bush term. To see how devastating this Trump attack has been look at Jake Tapper’s interview with JeBush:

Jeb! asks why Trump “keeps bringing this up?” Jeb! does not see how Trump is turning Jeb! into JeBush!

As Jake Tapper asked, ‘If Bush isn’t responsible for 9/11 then can Hillary be responsible for Benghazi?’

Trump ties Jeb! to Bush! and he will tie Hillary! to Obama! That’s a chess master at work.

Endgame. Trump closed his trap on JeBush with the release of his own prescient remarks about the World Trade Center attack and Bin Laden from as early as 1999. Now the JeBush campaign is in deep trouble, political and financial.

How did Donald J. Trump manage stop the fix for JeBush and get to this point of near victory? Trump tied Jeb! to Bush! It’s a lesson for Hillary2016.


@RealDonaldTrump Walks Away With The Clinton Coalition

Update: Breaking: Biden to make statement at White House imminently; Update: Not running. The Biden Rose Garden announcement, with Barack Obama at his side, should send chills up Hillary Clinton’s side.

Biden’s speech was more of a stump speech than a farewell. Biden attacked Hillary regularly these past few days. Today was no different. Biden attacked Hillary repeatedly placing the onus of Republican antagonism on her. To make such a claim on the day before Hillary testifies before congress was not an act of a friend. Joe Biden has called Republicans and the Tea Party terrorists and other assorted insults but today he was the voice of peace and unity – very much the routine Barack Obama used to win in 2008.

Ominously, Biden declared he will stay in the process to defend Barack Obama and Barack Obama’s policies. Biden demanded candidates for the presidential nomination defend Barack Obama and Obama’s policies. This means Biden will attack Hillary any time she decides to run as herself and not the Obama Third Term, if Hillary ever has such intention of which there is scant evidence. Hillary will now have to run as the Obama Third Term or attack dog Biden will chew on her throat.

Worst for Hillary, it sounded to us as if Biden is running for president. Biden said his reason for not running was that the window has closed. Biden basically said it was too late to get in and get all that needed to be done accomplished for a full fledged presidential run. Biden’s announcement, with Obama at his side, was a presidential campaign announcement minus the one sentence in which he demurred. It’s almost as if Biden thinks at some point something will happen to remove Hillary and put his candidacy in play.


Trump leads two new national Republican polls with 27 and 28 percent. For months, in all national polls and all statewide polls Trump is #1.

As we predicted long before conventional wisdom caught up to us this past weekend – Yes, Donald Trump looks to be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. Yes, the GOP primary was “fixed” for JeBush but Donald J. Trump kinda messed that plan up. Yes, Carly Fiorina is a fizzle. Yes, Marco Rubio can’t get it up enough to win. Yes, Hillary Clinton’s biggest enemy is Barack Obama. Yes, Hillary2016 has thrown away the winning Clinton coalition for the losing Obama situation comedy demographic. And now, Donald J. Trump is busy building a winning general election electoral fortress with key elements of the former Clinton coalition:

SHOCK POLL: Trump Blue Collar Support highest since FDR in 1930s

It may come as a surprise to many that Donald J Trump’s support from Blue Collar Americans (those involved in trades, manufacturing, industry, and labor) is the highest since any candidate since FDR in 1936 since Gallup began polling.

Trump has consistently shown his appeal to the blue collar sector of the economy, pulling ahead of even Clinton and Sanders in “rust belt” states like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennslyvania.

These states have the highest share of “Blue Collar” voters in the nation, and many of them have not voted Republican in over 20 years.

Trump’s appeal to blue collar workers is in the 60% range, higher than any candidate since Franklin Roosevelt won a massive landslide in 1936 on the support of the Blue Collar voter.

Trump doesn’t do well with just the average “White Joe Sixpack,” he also gains a large share of black voters and even hispanics (25%, 37%)

The white working class should have been the bedrock of Hillary2016. The white working class support for Hillary Clinton in 2008 provided grand victories of 40 point margins when Hillary was most wounded. Now Hillary2016 has repeatedly abandoned those voters.

Jim Webb as he euthanized his sad imitation of a campaign today to threaten an independent run towards failure reminded all of the abandonment of the white working class by the once respectful Democratic Party:

Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, Webb argued the Democratic Party has moved away from “millions of dedicated, hard-working Americans.”

“For this reason, I am withdrawing from any consideration of being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the presidency,” he said.

“The very nature of our democracy is under siege due to the power structure and the money that finances both political parities,” Webb said, adding later that it is “time for a new Declaration of Independence — not from an outside power but from the paralysis of a federal system that no longer serves the interests of the vast majority of the American people.”

Webb, who said he couldn’t see himself endorsing any other candidate, said he is considering an independent run and will spend the “next couple of weeks talking to people, people I have not felt comfortable talking with as a Democratic Party candidate.” [snip]

Mudcat Saunders, Webb’s close friend and informal adviser, told CNN he last spoke with Webb this weekend but the senator never said he planned to drop out of the Democratic contest.

“We were just b—-ing about the way our party has moved. They have given up on the South, they have given up on the heartland, on rural America,” Saunders said, expressing both his and Webb’s view. “It is a math game and the math is not going to work. It might work once and it might work twice. We just don’t like the Democratic Party’s strategy.”

He added, “I feel confident that Jim would say that same thing. Just to take a whole group of people and throw them out of the equation is wrong. That is what the party has done throughout small towns and rural America.”

The bedrock of a winning coalition, the people Barack Obama dismissed in 2008 as “bitter” and clinging to their guns and Bibles, used to be the FDR coalition and the Clinton coalition. No longer. They are now part of the Trump Triumph. Hillary2016 has abandoned them so they have abandoned her.

The counter argument to Trump winning the white working class vote is that Trump won’t get the nomination. At every turn we hear of a new pawn up to the job of destroying Donald J. Trump. The latest and biggest pawn in the long line of dead pawns is Marco Rubio. Rubio is in a pitched battle with JeBush because the winner of that fight will presumably be the sole anti-Trump candidate left standing.

Trump of course has not targeted Marco Rubio yet. What we have seen are the preliminary jabs from Trump, akin to a naval bombardment before invasion of a beachhead. Trump has only mocked Rubio with image recasting insults. When Trump unloads on Rubio on issues such as illegal immigration there won’t be much left of Marco. Not that there is much to Marco Rubio other than a trail of Obama style stinky sweat and a wide Obama style smile. Put aside the sweat and the smile, and Politico reports, there is a wake up call:

Marco Rubio’s wake-up call

For all the buzz surrounding his campaign, the Florida senator isn’t raising enough money and hasn’t yet built much of a field organization.

The hype surrounding Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign just smashed into the wall of reality.

First, the Florida senator’s team insisted it had stashed more campaign cash in the bank than fellow Floridian Jeb Bush — only it hadn’t. The campaign also told reporters it had raised $6 million in the last fundraising quarter — also not true. That turned out to be an overly generous rounding of the underwhelming real figure: $5.7 million.

Yet those aren’t even the most troublesome parts of the Florida senator’s most recent campaign finance report. Rubio may be slowly rising in the polls, but his third quarter filing revealed a campaign that’s also out-manned by many of its rivals in the early-voting states. His staff is largely concentrated in Washington, with just a small umbrella of on-the-ground, early-state operatives — and he’s already at a disadvantage because he hasn’t invested the time in early-state visits that some of his opponents have. [snip]

“If Trump-mania subsides, you’ve got to have a mechanism and a structure,” said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina Republican strategist who isn’t affiliated with any campaign.

If not Rubio the anti-Trump argument is still Jeb Bush. As we have noted, JeBush is clumsy at best. If we needed more evidence of the catastrophe of the Jeb Bush campaign we received it in an astounding interview. Mike Murphy, who is more of a wrecking ball for campaigns than a help, provided the working theory of the Jeb Bush campaign’s SuperPac:

Mike Murphy of Right to Rise Explains His Theory That Jeb Bush Is Still the Candidate to Beat

Donald Trump, Murphy says, is a “zombie front-runner.” And the punditocracy pays much too much attention to polls. Part one of a frank Q&A with the man who runs Bush’s super-PAC. [snip]

How has Trump’s entry changed the race?

It created a false zombie front-runner. He’s dead politically, he’ll never be president of the United States, ever. By definition I don’t think you can be a front-runner if you’re totally un-electable. I think there’s there an a-priori logic problem in that.

Has he been dead since he got in?

I think so, yeah. So there’s no meaningful outcome to it. But the question is what kind of catalyst is it? It’s a huge amount of noise and so we’re trying to find the signal in all this. You’ve seen Trump start to drop now. I think it’ll be a very slow drop, but I think he’ll continue to drop and the question is: is he ready to lose primaries, will he stay in? And nobody knows the answer to that. [snip]

You were quoted in the Washington Post a couple of months ago saying, Trump is “other people’s problem.”

Oh, I’d love a two-way race with Trump at the end, yeah.

Mike Murphy is a windbag paid to distort reality along with Big Media. That Murphy believes Trump is losing support or that JeBush/CommonCore/IllegalImmigration will beat Trump one-on-one is delusional. The only value to the Murphy interview is that it confirms what we have written about the original plan of JeBush to win the nomination via a fix involving the Florida March 15 winner take all primary:

During that period, you expect several candidates to be clumped together as far as delegates are concerned.

Yeah, for a while, for a while. I mean February’s not really about delegates, it’s about media momentum.

When do you expect that to change?

March 15 is the big day. On the 16th, I don’t think anybody will have a mathematical lock, but there definitely will be a very strong leading candidate.

You’re describing a scenario where a candidate who has never finished higher than third or fourth in any particular state could still be the leading candidate on March 16?

Right. [snip]

But Jeb could be in a strong position after the 15th, even if he hasn’t won anything before March 1?

Well, I don’t want to play the hypothetical game.

I think we’ve already started playing it. In terms of how you’re describing the physics of this race, it sounds as though you believe it’s possible that somebody who finished, say, second, third, or even fourth across the first four states could still do very well on March 1 and have a resource advantage to leverage on March 15.

I think with a big caveat. Somebody who in February was in the top three or top two over the three big contests and had resources to get a message out could still compete strongly if they have a bunch of resources in March. We have a holistic approach: we don’t have a big iron-curtain wall between February and March. We see Feb. 1 to March 15, 45 days, as our period to seize the nomination and get in front—and there are a lot of states and a lot of congressional districts and a lot of targeting to that. One of the reasons we’ve worked so hard and Jeb, frankly, has inspired so many people to donate to us is so we have the resources to pursue that campaign. Most of these other guys are all running on spec. We’re at a point now where we’re significantly funded for those 45 days, cash in the bank today. Nobody else is in that situation in this race. Nobody’s close.

Again, no one is that stupid. Mike Murphy cannot possibly believe that the failed Rudy Giuliani strategy will work for JeBush when it failed for Rudy. Rudy too thought that he could lose and lose and lose then win Florida and win it all. Reality is that Rudy Giuliani never made it to Florida. His loses in the first few states sealed his fate. Yet now Mike Murphy believes that JeBush losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, etc. will lead to victory?

Mike Murphy might have a plausible argument that he is still tethered somewhat to reality if only Donald J. Trump was not in the race. Trump has total long term leads in the polls, a top notch organization, and more than enough money from his own pocket, not to mention the donations from small donors, to obliterate JeBush in Florida let alone in the states leading to and from Florida. This reality is why more and more what we wrote long ago is now conventional wisdom:

GOP vet: Trump win looking more and more likely

I’ve resisted the idea that Donald Trump could and would become the Republican nominee,” writes GOP strategist Alex Castellanos in an email assessment of the presidential race. “Unhappily, I’ve changed my mind.”

Castellanos, who once said flatly that “Trump is not going to be the nominee,” writes “the odds of Trump’s success have increased and been validated in the past few weeks.”

The key indicator, Castellanos says, is the fact that Trump dipped in the polls and now appears to be rising again. “In my experience, that tells us something important,” Castellanos explains:

Republican voters went through a period of doubt about Trump, an understandable window of buyer’s remorse. They went shopping for someone else — but returned, finding no acceptable alternative who could match Trump’s bad-boy strength and his capacity to bring indispensable change. … Fearing they have only one last chance to rescue their country, they found no one else as big as their problem.

“In my experience, once voters doubt but return, doubting again is less likely,” Castellanos concludes. “A candidate’s vote hardens.”

Castellanos, who played a key role in Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign, believes either Trump or Ben Carson will win the Iowa caucuses. If it’s Trump, Castellanos sees him going on to win New Hampshire and then the nomination. [snip]

If Trump wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, Castellanos sees a “desperate GOP establishment” trying to settle on an “anti-Trump,” perhaps Marco Rubio, to bring Trump down. But that would be a very difficult task. “History is not kind to candidates who play the long game,” Castellanos writes. “No GOP nominee in modern history has failed to win either Iowa or NH. Period.”

Castellanos is not alone in acceptance of what few other than Big Pink saw. Even in the most fortified anti-Trump hangouts the levels of grief have hit the acceptance stage:

The Establishment Thinks the Unthinkable: Trump Could Win the Nomination

It began as whispers in hushed corners: Could it ever happen? And now, just three months from the Iowa caucuses, members of the Republican establishment are starting to give voice to an increasingly common belief that Donald Trump, once dismissed as joke, a carnival barker, and a circus freak, might very well win the nomination.

“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in 2008.

Rollins is not alone in his views. “Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.” [snip]

I know all of us dismissed Trump, early on, all of the so-called experts,” Fox News’s Chris Wallace said Sunday. “‘Summer fling,’ ‘momentary amusement.’” But Wallace, who interviewed Trump late last week and aired portions of the interview on his show Sunday, said he finds himself feeling differently now. “As I watched that interview and I heard what he had to say . . . I am beginning to believe he could be elected president of the United States,” he said. [snip]

Wallace was struck by the sheer force of Trump’s personality, but there are other reasons to think he has a real shot at the nomination. Poll after poll this election cycle has registered the distaste of Republican voters for political experience; they prefer an outsider with a fresh approach to a battle-tested veteran.

The very same GOP establishment that now understands Trump might win and is poised to win has concocted a plan to take down Trump with tens of millions of dollars in ads:

Panicked establishment gets ready for war against Trump

This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party’s nominee.

“The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win,” noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. “I’ve heard that from everybody. I don’t hear anybody saying he can’t win the nomination anymore.”

That doesn’t mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party’s likely nominee.

Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump’s candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?

“Massive resistance,” was the answer. “He’s not a conservative.”

Donald J. Trump is not a conservative the GOP establishment likes nor a liberal the Democratic Party likes. Donald Trump will destroy the Republican Party as we now know it because Barack Obama destroyed the Democratic Party as we once knew it. The GOP has long contained a struggle between it’s populist voters and the big money Chamber of Commerce types that want a low wage society. Donald Trump is against a low wage society and therefore against illegal immigration. The white working class understands this. Enough of the black working class and the Latino working class understands this too.

The white working class chased out of the Democratic Party by Obama’s Kook coalition had no where to go but to the Republican Party. Now the former Democrats join in solidarity with the long time populist Republicans – ergo TRUMP.

Neither Hillary Clinton nor Hillary2016 understands any of this. Hillary’s biggest enemy is Barack Obama. But Hillary is clueless as she panders with nonsense talk. One moment Hillary is for Australian style gun confiscation then a moment later she says she only thinks gun confiscation is an idea to be considered but which she may or may not reject or something or something something. Mush. Maybe Hillary will declare she will consider confiscation of Bibles and turn us all into Obama’s “bitter clingers” before the year is out.

Yes, Hillary does not understand that Barack Obama is her biggest enemy as we have written over and over and over again. This is not a very complicated, complex, concept:

Using Biden to Block the Clintons from Regaining the White House

As he approaches the end of his career in elected office, Barack Obama is in a truly precarious position: He is going to exit the White House having accomplished almost nothing substantive on the policy front — his health-care program is not going to survive, Gitmo is not going to be closed, we are not leaving Afghanistan, and he is sending troops into Iraq — and outside of his perch at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, his party is in ruins: In Congress and the states, the Democrats are in their weakest position in modern political history. If the Democrats do not win the presidency in 2016, there are going to be some very uncomfortable questions about what exactly Obama & Co. accomplished, and at what price. [snip]

When the time came, Obama’s people were going to give Obama’s people what Obama’s people wanted, and everybody knew it.

But the Clintons aren’t Obama’s people. Bill Clinton thinks of Obama as his own political Stepin Fetchit, the guy who only a few years ago would have been “carrying our bags.” Herself was Obama’s main obstacle to power. (No, Senator McCain most certainly was not.) Obama did not build this machine to hand it over to the Clintons on a cold winter morning in 2017. That puts him in a double bind: He has to make it beyond question that he and his clique now own the Democratic party — that the Clintons are just weird sad old 1990s relics like those ancient AOL CDs that some youngsters ironically collect — but he also needs the Democrats to win the presidency in 2016 in order for the party to be worth owning. [snip]

The problem is that there is no one in the field to swoop in and lead the Democrats to victory in 2016. Obama has a personnel problem.

And that’s where Joe Biden comes in. Biden is the Obama guy who isn’t really an Obama guy — he was elected to the U.S. Senate when Barack Obama was eleven years old. He had a life and a political career before he hitched his wagon to the teapot messiah from Chicago, and though his is not the keenest mind in politics, he surely gets the game: If he gets in, he is to be reduced to a purely instrumental condition, an enabler of Obama’s last and most important political play, a placeholder keeping the chair warm until Obama’s people have settled on a real president.

Death throes. Yes, Joe Biden will not be the nominee. Yes, Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee. As we wrote, the real candidate of the Obama Party is hidden behind tapestries, her knives at the ready.

In 2008 Hillary Clinton survived and thrived because she marched alongside the white working class. Now, the white working class is marching with Donald J. Trump – towards victory.


@RealDonaldTrump Just Won The Third GOP Debate – ‘Fizzles’ Fiorina Fumes

CNBC caves to demand from Trump and Carson, agrees to limit next GOP debate to two hours:

Or rather, CNBC caved to the demand from Trump. Carson co-signed the letter that Trump sent to the network, but it ain’t Dr. Ben who’s delivering an extra 10 million viewers or so to these things.

Pretty simple calculation for CNBC: Enjoy two hours of boffo ratings with Trump as your star or three hours of middling ratings for special guest star Jeb Bush. [snip]

Anyway: With 10 candidates on stage, figure a minute for each opening and closing statement plus 20 minutes for commercials each hour and you’ve got one hour of actual Q&A — which includes the time needed by the moderators to actually pose the questions. Not including their openings and closings, each candidate should end up with … four minutes of speaking time, maybe? Five?

Let’s be the first to say it: Ban these debates. All of them. The public gets nothing from these phony filled-with-baloney “debates”. What are these phony “debates” about? The public gets nothing by way of information from them, the candidates get “free” airtime, the TV station gets money from commercials. The public gets screwed. Find another format and get rid of these phony debates. We suggest gladiatorial spectacles as in ancient Rome with candidates physically assaulting each other.

Get rid of these phony debates. These debates all have an agenda and it is not an agenda for the voter to get informed. On the Republican side it is attacks on Trump all the time. It’s attempts to prop up little Jebbie Bush as his pawns try to take down Trump. On the Hillary side, there is no one for her to debate. Sanders and the rest of the Obama fluffers are not serious applicants even for a McDonalds’ janitorial management job let alone fit to be in any “debate” with the word “presidential” in the description. Get rid of these debates.

Maybe, if the Villages idiot – Mourning Joe Biden – decides to do as Obama wants and runs against Hillary then we can see one debate against these two. But then, basta! Enough! As to the Republicans, there is only Trump or Jeb Bush and the satire magazine The Onion provides the best commentary on JeBush:

Extension Cord On Stage Steals Spotlight From Jeb Bush During Campaign Rally

CONCORD, NH—Emphasizing the allure and appeal of the 30-foot length of electrical power cable that shared the stage with the former Florida governor, sources confirmed that an orange three-pronged extension cord completely stole the spotlight from Jeb Bush during a New Hampshire campaign rally Friday. “Jeb made some interesting points about the need to prioritize national security, but ultimately he was just completely overshadowed by the far more riveting extension cord running along the floor beside him,” said political pundit Chris Wallace, who acknowledged that attendees appeared more energized by the flexible orange cable taped to the stage and noted that the one-time GOP frontrunner repeatedly failed to connect with the audience as effectively as the cord. “Unfortunately for Jeb, no matter what he did throughout the night, he just looked bland and flat compared to that extension cord. He’s not going to want to bring that piece of electrical equipment with him to any more rallies if he wants voters’ attention to stay directed at him.” At press time, the Bush campaign team was rapidly assembling a focus group to learn how the candidate could be more like the extension cord.

Hillary Clinton is up against Bernie Sanders, a man about as interesting as an intermittently working light bulb. Donald Trump is up against a dauphin less interesting than an extension cord.

Do we need more dim bulb debates? More no energy dullards on stage? No! CNBC, in order to have more time for commercials, wanted another three hour debate. Donald Trump said “NO” and Donald Trump won:

Again, that’s not a problem for Trump, who can get 30 minutes of cable-news time to riff on whatever he wants anytime he wants simply by dialing up CNN or whoever and asking to be put on the air. On the contrary: Both as the frontrunner and as a guy whose grasp of policy detail is not, shall we say, his chief selling point, he has every incentive at this point to keep the debates as short as possible.

Let’s assume, for arguments sake, that Donald Trump wants less time for self-interested entirely selfish, politically motivated reasons. None of that matters. Donald Trump won the larger debate over who is the dog and who is the tail. Big Media efforts to convince the public, the political parties, and the candidates, that Big Media is the big dog and the political process is the tail just got beat by Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the new Big Dog and Big Media is what comes out of the dog in the tail region. Donald Trump did what we have advised candidates to do since 2007 and that is why Donald Trump is a leader who wins and wins and wins:

CNBC Agrees to Two-Hour Debate: This Is Why Donald Trump Is Winning

While every other Republican remained publicly silent, frontrunner Donald Trump got his closest rival, Dr. Ben Carson, to join with him and together they stood up and said, “No.”

This kept Trump in the headlines and at the top of the news cycle throughout yesterday afternoon and this morning. And now we’ve learned that Trump and Carson won. The DC/NY media agreed to the frontrunners’ demands.

Does anyone in the weak-kneed Republican Establishment, or among the bubbled-morons in the Punditocracy, have any more questions about why The Donald appears to be coasting to the Republican nomination for President of the United States? [snip]

Look who publicly stood up to the media. Look who punched back by threatening to boycott the debate and used their leverage as frontrunners to get CNBC to back down.

This morning CNBC caved and agreed to a two-hour debate. The RNC also believes the candidates will get their opening and closing statements.

Let me put this as simply as possible for the GOPSmartSet-impaired: The Republicans will not win the White House in 2016 with yet another “electable” squish. We need a standard-bearer who is not only willing to stand up to the media but who also knows how to prevail against the media. [snip]

Strength and competence wins the respect of voters and by extension their confidence and their votes. And right now, while Establishment candidates like Jeb Bush go full-Beta, the only Republican candidate showing both strength and competence is Donald Trump.

Trump is in command.

A Bill Clinton axiom is “Better to be strong and wrong, than weak and right.” The new Big Dog, Donald Trump, understands and fights. Donald J. Trump is not only right, he’s strong enough to fight for what’s right. Trump is strong, and not wrong.

The third Republican debate will be under the command and control of Donald J. Trump. CNBC will try to take Trump down at the debate but at every turn Trump will be able to say that CNBC is attacking Trump in vengeance for lost commercial dollars. And that is why Donald J. Trump just won the third GOP debate.

CNBC and the Lilliputians will still try to take down Trump. Already we have seen how Megyn Kelly teamed up with Carly “Fizzles” Fiorina to sneer against Trump.

After the second debate Big Media proclaimed Carly Fiorina’s performance to be spectacular and Rich Lowry on Fox News declared Fiorina to have cut off Trump’s testicles. Our modest prediction was that Fizzles Fiorina would “rise and rise and rise from the low single digits to the high single digits.” Our prediction came true along with our “poof” addendum that after the rise Fizzles Fiorina would be back to low single digits. Done and done.

Fizzles Fiorina, as devastated as she is, compares favorably to what Donald Trump has done to the rest of the field of dreamers. Have you seen the financial results for the last quarter as filed by the candidates?

Consider Donald J. Trump:

Donald Trump Accidentally Raised Almost As Much As Rubio

Donald Trump’s campaign collected $4 million in the third quarter, roughly the same as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). The real difference, though, is that Trump’s campaign hasn’t conducted any fundraising efforts.

Almost all of that $4 million total is from “unsolicited” donations. People simply sent his campaign money without being asked for it. [snip]

The result is that Trump, without trying, raised far more than Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and was largely in-line with major challengers Rubio and businesswomen Carly Fiorina. [snip]

According to the most recent FEC filing, Jeb Bush’s campaign was spending more than $3.5 million each month during the Summer.

Donald Trump has spent the least amount of any of the major candidates. Through the entire campaign so far, Trump has spent just over $5 million total.

That’s not the most astounding Trump money news. It’s all about the hats:

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump spent more on hats, bumper stickers, yard signs and t-shirts than he did on any other category in the third quarter, according to his latest campaign finance report filed on Thursday. [snip]

In typical presidential campaigns, top expenditures are usually payroll, mailings and consultants.

But those items did not feature largely on Trump’s report. The filing, made with the Federal Election Commission, contained no line item for payroll at all. [snip]

Trump raised nearly $4 million in the third quarter. In total, the campaign has raised $5.8 million and spent $5.6 million. Despite proclamations that he would self-fund his candidacy, Trump still raked in unsolicited donations from nearly 74,000 people, who gave an average of $50.46.

Jeb Bush? Jeb Bush is the profligate prodigal son:

“The high life has ended,” said one Florida operative familiar with the campaign’s operation. [snip]

“At a certain point, we want to see a bang for the buck. We’re spending the bucks — and we’re seeing no bang,” a longtime Bush Republican said.

Bush is stuck at 7 percent in an average of national polls. [snip]

In New Hampshire, seen by many as a must-win for Bush, Bush and the Right to Rise super PAC backing him have spent at least $4.8 million on TV and radio to support him since early September. One ad-tracking firm produced an analysis for POLITICO that showed pro-Bush spots in the past three weeks have occupied about 60 percent of the political ad air-time in the state. Bush’s numbers have moved from 9 perrcent [sic] to 8.7 percent since the ad blitz began, according to the Real Clear Politics averages of polls in the GOP primary. [snip]

But when asked how he plans to improve his standing, Bush himself has been blunt: “I’m going to do something really novel,” he said last week. “It’s called advertising.” [snip]

“In the past, advertising was a show of strength. Now, if you’re advertising it’s because you’re in a weak position,” said Elizabeth Wilner, senior vice president of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence overseeing its Campaign Media Analysis Group.

TipToes JeBush can barely keep his nose above water.

Self-funded Donald J. Trump has a “burn rate” lower than the money Americans are sending him! And Trump is tops! JeBush spends like a drunk sailor in a Nevada whorehouse. And Bush is drowning! Carson? Ben Carson is making money to spend money:

In the three-month period that ended September 30, the campaign spent 53 cents for every dollar it raised. That number was down slightly from 64 cents for every dollar raised in the second quarter of the year.

Spending top dollar on fundraising has enabled the campaign to assemble a list of more than two million donors from whom it raises between $200,000 and $350,000 per day, a campaign spokesman said.

In all, Mr. Carson directed $11 million of the $14 million he spent in the third quarter to fundraising costs.

Get Dr. Carson to the burn unit at the hospital as a patient. Bad, bad, burn rate. He raised $20 million last quarter but already spent $14 million.

Donald J. Trump is winning every poll in every state, every national poll, consistently, month after month even as he spends less than the other major candidates. The new polls shatter the dreamers:

He first took the lead in the RCP national poll average on July 20, so next week will mean three full months at the top. And Trump is far ahead of the two squabbling candidates, Bush and Rubio, in the early-voting states:

1) In Iowa, Trump is up by 17 over Bush, and 18 over Rubio, according to the most recent poll, by the Wall Street Journal.

2) In New Hampshire, Trump is up by 10 over Bush and 11 over Rubio, according to the Journal.

3) In South Carolina, Trump is up by 25 over Rubio and 30 over Bush in a brand-new CNN poll.

4) In Nevada, Trump is up by 31 over Rubio and 32 over Bush, according to CNN.

They keep burying Trump but, but, Zombie Trump continues to rise and thrive in the supposed strongholds of other candidates:

Trump Trouncing GOP Foes on Their Home Turf

GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is not only leading all national and state polls, but he’s trouncing his other GOP opponents in their own states as voters soundly turn against established government leaders in favor of the New York real estate billionaire.

On Thursday, the trend continued, with a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll in New Jersey showing Trump soundly defeating all challengers and coming in several points ahead of Gov. Chris Christie. The numbers in the poll are as follows, reports The Record:

Trump, 32 percent
Ben Carson, 13 percent
Marco Rubio, 13 percent
Ted Cruz, 6 percent
Carly Fiorina, 5 percent
Chris Christie, 5 percent
Jeb Bush, 5 percent
John Kasich, 2 percent
Mike Huckabee, 1 percent
George Pataki, 1 percent
Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal and Rand Paul, less than 1 percent
Graham and Jim Gilmore, 0 percent

Christie’s numbers dropped from 12 percent in August, according to the poll, while Trump’s rose, from 21 percent. [snip]

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump holding double-digit leads against both Bush and Rubio, with Trump at 28 percent, Rubio at 14 percent, and Bush at 12 percent.

Trump is also leading in Florida over Rubio and Bush among Hispanics, a group with which both Florida leaders share ties, reports Breitbart. According to a September Public Policy Polling survey, Trump defeated Bush among Hispanics by 37 to 29 percent, and defeated Rubio by one percentage point. [snip]

Trump is also defeating Ohio Gov. John Kasich, even though the Republican governor has been enormously popular among his own state’s residents, reports The Columbus Dispatch, reporting last week on a Quinnipiac Poll that focused on Ohio and two other swing states, Florida and Pennsylvania.

The numbers were:

  • Trump, 23 percent
  • Carson, 18 percent
  • Kasich, 13 percent
  • Cruz, 11 percent
  • Fiorina, 10 percent
  • “Gov. John Kasich’s big card was his enormous popularity in Ohio, generally considered the most important swing state in the November election,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

    “But with Trump zooming well past him in the Buckeye State and Kasich’s numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania in low single digits, the Ohio governor’s campaign is going in the wrong direction,” Brown said.

    Graham, who has represented South Carolina for several years, recorded an embarrassing defeat in a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday that gave Trump 36 percent, compared to 5 percent for Graham.

    Rand Paul in Kentucky and Ted Cruz in Texas are not beating Trump either. Trump tops them all, consistently. That’s something not even Hillary Clinton can boast in her primary against non-entities.

    Donald Trump has triumphed in the third GOP debate even before it is held. It’s not just the third debate though. Donald Trump might have won this primary already. It’s only a few more months until Iowa votes on February 1 and if JeBush cannot advertise himself out of the circling drain, Trump will flush him along with the rest of the, um, schleps.


    #DemDebate Disaster: @RealDonaldTrump And #Hillary2016 Big Winners – #DraftBiden Big Loser – Get Out Now! @MartinOMalley #BernieSanders @LincolnChafee @JimWebbUSA

    Hillary destroyed tonight at the #DemDebate. Joe Biden better rethink getting in. After tonight we think Biden should declare he is out.

    O’Malley was horrible tonight (and that’s not his wife talking 🙂 ) O’Malley should get out of the race tonight and return to Baltimore for a severe beating at the hands of the harshest thugs the city has to offer.

    Chaffee was worse than we thought he could ever be and we thought he was going to be very bad. But he didn’t even try tonight. He needs to get out tonight and apologize to his mother and father for being born.

    Jim Webb should get out tonight and retire from politics and public life. Webb, like the other male candidates, at his best was incoherent and at his worst was on camera.

    Bernie Sanders? Whatever chance Saint Bernard ever had for a respectable close to his campaign is now as rumpled as his clothes. It was obvious Sanders did not expect Hillary to beat on him so effectively. Bernie resorted to his slogans every time his brain failed which was often. Bernie Sanders at his best looked like the guy in the park who goes through the trash looking for empty cans and sniffs discarded food before he takes a bite.

    Hillary? We were surprised. She did a lot of what we did not think she would do. She knew when to hit, when to shut up, when to smile, when to giggle. She went after Saint Bernard on guns and socialism and, well… she dispatched the goofs on stage next to her like Benny Hill when he tap-tap-ttttapped the old guy on the head.

    If there was a saving grace for any of the male candidates on that debate stage it is the likelihood that few Americans watched this debacle.

    The Big Winner tonight, contra DrudgeReport, was Hillary2016. The bigger winner was Donald Trump.

    Tonight, watching from the Twitterverse, Donald Trump had to be confident. An unlikely Bernie Sanders win would be lunch dripped in a fine French sauce at Maxim’s for Trump.

    Hillary? Hillary Clinton won the DemDebate hands down and with amazing ease. Her victories on every issue and every “scandal” was complete. But in order to win Hillary made herself vulnerable in the general election. Sweet words about Obama and wanting to go further left is not the direction the unhappy country wants.

    Donald Trump high above Fifth Avenue in Trump Tower, like a vulture spotting carrion, or rather an eagle spotting tasty trout, must have smiled a hungry smile.


    Hillarity! – @RealDonaldTrump LiveTweets #Hillary2016 #BernieSanders Dum #DemDebate

    Update: Open thread: Senior citizens set for evening of fun in Las Vegas along with us will be one of the few watching tonight. CNN Democratic Debate: Watch live and join our liveblog will be another pair of eyeballs. That’s 4 eyeballs besides ours. The debate will be on CNN and the live stream is HERE. Of course, Real Donald Trump adds a few eyeballs too.

    The dunderheads in Brooklyn who still deny Obama hates Hillary should read the latest “Obama furious at Hillary” article. The Hillary2016 brilliant minds might ask themselves why today, of all days, does the Obama campaign memo from 2008 “How to beat Hillary Clinton” is published for all to read? Wanna guess geniuses?


    Hillary Clinton should show up at tonight’s dum dem debate with a bottle of Bourbon, a bucket of ice cubes, and a clinky clinky glass, pouring Bourbon on ice down her throat all night. Our ideal Hillary debate night would be a combination of Neely O’Hara, Liz Taylor, and the Angela Bassett witch role from American Horror Story.

    That’s what Hillary Clinton should do. Call that dog Saint Bernard a goddamned Socialist and list all the crimes and horrors committed in the name of socialism – as well as defend capitalism. Tell Martin O’Malley to go back to Baltimore and kill himself some more blacks. Walk up to Lincoln Chaffee and hit him over the head with the Bourbon bottle hard enough to send him to the hospital. Slap Anderson Cooper in the face when he laughs as Chaffee slumps to the floor. Pull Jim Webb by the hair, give him a wet sloppy kiss, spit some Bourbon on his face, grab his crotch, and tell him to go home.

    Hillary should then turn to the cameras and curse, in close-up, the Obama Dimocrat Party and tell them “I don’t need you losers. Go Fuk yourselves you pigs. I don’t need any of you. You need me. Go fuc yourselves you miserable low down losers and go straight to Hell. Go straight to Hell with Medusa Obama and her skinny stinky beanpole Barack and fuk them too”

    That won’t happen. It’s too real. It’s too honest. It won’t happen. We can picture Donald Trump getting that real. But Hillary wants to lose.

    Hillary probably doesn’t even know she wants to lose. But she does.

    If Hillary doesn’t want to lose we will see that tonight. She will fight. And we don’t mean silly attacks against Trump or Republicans. This is a primary fight. Hillary’s opponents are Barack Obama and the clowns on stage. Hillary needs to state clearly that her vision (the one from 2008, not the silly one from this year) is the best vision for America and make it clear that the losers on stage near her are not fit to lick her heels let alone fit into her shoes.

    If Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chaffee don’t want to lose we’ll see that tonight too. They’ll make their case strongly and point out Hillary’s phony positions and moves to the kook left this year.

    From Hillary tonight we expect mush posed as a fight. Hillary will be very good using a lot of words to say nothing. Hillary will not discuss Goldfinger and Putin nor Pussy Galore and Obama. The latest world-wide disasters authored by Barack Obama will be ignored or mushed over. Hillary will not denounce the wrong track the country is on, as Americans see it, nor will Hillary lay the problems at the lap of Barack Obama. As in 2008 Hillary will “win” and still be the best g_ddammned candidate on that stage bar none, but that won’t be enough to save her.

    From Bernie Sanders we will see a gravitational pull to the extreme left. From Jim Webb we will see a pull to the center. From Martin O’Malley there will be Baltimore style death threats. From Lincoln Chaffee, the loser of all losers with nothing to lose, regurgitated Barack Obama circa 2008. In short, all will attack Hillary. It will be attack upon attack upon attack against Hillary Clinton. The attacks based on Hillary’s positions this crummy year juxtaposed to her positions in 2008 will be too painful to watch.

    As to Joe Biden and his threat to Hillary2016? The ghostly presence of Mourning Joe as he surfs the short lived wave of popularity on the coffin of his dead Beau will be as comical as Barack Obama’s 2008 exploitation of his dead skanky mother and failing granny.

    The biggest ghost tonight however will be Donald Trump live from the Twitterverse. In 2008 at the height of the Hillary Clinton versus Boob Obama battle the top two debates garnered about 8 million viewers. In 2015 The Donald’s debates got about 50 million eyeballs per debate. Add to that the drama of baseball tonight and the eyeballs will roll elsewhere. Donald Trump said the dem debate will be a bore and joked the reason will be he is not there:

    Trump then did what Trump does best: trump. Now Trump has announced he will livetweet the debate:

    We’ll tweet along with Trump and comment along with the valiant few not watching silly baseball and instead focused on this horserace. We can already smell the manure.


    Black Gold: Vladimir Putin And The Goldfinger Grand Slam Plan

    Ian Fleming made a mistake. Hollywood corrected that mistake. Vladimir Putin learned from that mistake.

    Ian Fleming was the man that created super-spy James Bond, and/or was the real life James Bond. In his book Goldfinger, Fleming’s plot involved criminal mastermind and gold dealer Auric Goldfinger breaking into and stealing the gold from Fort Knox in the most audacious robbery in world history. It was an impractical idea on the part of Fleming’s Mr. Goldfinger. When Hollywood produced the follow-up to the sensational first James Bond movie Dr. No, Hollywood corrected Fleming’s error.

    The movie Goldfinger explains in detail why the theft of all the gold from Fort Knox is not feasible. Then the Hollywood movie dream makers perfected the plot for Fleming and gave Auric Goldfinger a truly genius plan:

    Hooray for Hollywood! The producers of Goldfinger realized, and had the James Bond character in the film explain, that the weight of all that gold was near impossible to transport especially in the time it would take for American security forces to make him put it back. The amount and weight of all the gold in Fort Knox would take too long to load into transports and the weight would require a great many transports capable of carrying all that gold. So Hollywood came up with the answer that works.

    Auric Goldfinger in the movie owns a lot of gold. Mr. Goldfinger, in a plan only the scam artist accountants in Hollywood could devise, did not need to literally steal all the gold in Fort Knox to make a financial killing. All Auric Goldfinger had to do was put the gold of Fort Knox out of commission.

    That was the genius of “Operation Grand Slam” as Goldfinger named his maniacal plan. Goldfinger’s plan was to explode a nuclear device in Fort Know which would render the gold in Fort Knox radioactive. With the gold in Fort Knox made useless the value of Goldfinger’s gold would rise in price exponentially.

    Vladimir Putin understands the value of Goldfinger’s “Operation Grand Slam”. That’s what Vladimir Putin is up to with his Corleone family style move into the middle east.

    Smart and strong. Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader is so smart and so strong. Even when Putin pulls down his pants and exposes himself many cannot see what he is up to.

    Vladimir Putin is implementing “Operation Grand Slam” on a worldwide basis. What many mistake for weakness, what many mistake as a mistake, is Putin as Auric Goldfinger.

    What is Putin’s version of “Operation Grand Slam”? Putin will bring down the oil producers in competition with Russia and thereby make Russia master of energy.

    Many of our brightest don’t see what Vladimir Putin is up to. They presume that Putin’s move into Syria and the middle east is about making Russia a player in the middle east once again, or about allies or about something or other, other than what it is.

    Other of our brightest declare that whatever Putin is up to he is too weak to carry out his plan. Here’s the conventional wisdom of the smart set that have never seen Godfather movies or Goldfinger:

    Putin’s Economic Might Is Withering Away [snip]

    Across the Russian economy, businesses have shelved investment plans, worried that the ruble might extend its decline if oil prices slide further and that geopolitical tensions could bring new economic headwinds.

    The prospect of a prolonged slump is a challenge for the Kremlin, which has relied on rising living standards to boost popular support, as well as foreign investors, who have bet billions on Russia as a growth market.

    For the moment, the Kremlin has been dialing back the tensions in Ukraine, which could lead to an easing of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe over the crisis there.

    Russian officials say the economy has hit bottom; business executives are unpersuaded. Capital investment declined 6 percent in the first eight months of this year. Many companies have cash – corporate profits are up 38 percent this year, boosted mainly by the drop in the ruble – they just aren’t ready to spend it.

    “Businessmen and ordinary people have formed strong negative expectations,” says former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, compounding the impact of sanctions and the plunge in oil prices. “That induces capital outflows and leads to greater economic contraction.”

    Even if the economy recovers in the next few years, growth will be so slow that Russia’s share of world output will still shrink to the lowest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union, erasing the gains of President Vladimir Putin’s 15-year rule, he says.

    Already, budget pressures forced the government to cut or delay parts of the 20-trillion-ruble military modernization that Putin has made a top priority in his drive to rebuild Russia’s global might.

    The premise of the bright set is that Putin has taken more than he can chew. The mistaken premise is that Russia is weak and weakening and Putin is only making it worse.

    We’ll stipulate that the Russian economy is in the toilet and circling. We’ll agree that Vladimir Putin has done some pretty nervy moves. Putin’s decisive moves into the Middle East are analogous to weak Germany’s move into the Rhineland as the Western powers stood by watching, doing nothing. But all the weakness of the Russian economy is icing on the cake for strong Vladimir Putin’s “Operation Grand Slam.”

    Some analysts don’t see the genius of Vladimir Putin’s “Operation Grand Slam” but they get closer to the strategy:

    Three facts motivate Putin. First, two regions utterly dominate world oil markets. The Middle East and Russia together ship 60 percent of all oil traded (45 and 15 percent, respectively). Meanwhile, American firms are by law prohibited from engaging in this vital global marketplace; more on this shortly.

    Second, oil matters. It provides 97 percent of the global fuel needs for all the engines that transport everything on land, sea and air. No viable substitutes exist at any price for liquid hydrocarbons at the scale society needs. And the world will consume more oil, not less, as far into the future as it matters for sensible policymaking.

    Finally, price matters. Here the U.S. has upset the apple cart. Entrepreneurs using new technologies have unlocked a shocking increase in oil supply. U.S. shale fields have recorded the fastest increase in oil production in history. As a result, crude prices have collapsed from north of $100 to south of $50 a barrel. The emerging consensus? Cheaper oil is the new normal.

    Imagine if that 45 percent of middle eastern oil was somehow destroyed or made unusable. Russia’s 15 percent would rise like Goldfinger’s dream.

    Syria? Syria is an oil producer but that’s not the strategic importance for strong and smart Putin. Syria is a transit hub pipeline for European oil and gas markets.

    The more obvious Vladimir Putin is, the less weak leaders in the West see what he is up to. It’s not about territory ladies and gentlemen. Vladimir Putin does not rely on any of the nonsense formulas the West’s leaders think Putin needs.

    So what exactly is Vladimir Putin up to? Putin has moved into Syria. Putin has sent his best troops into Syria. But those are feints. Those are tactics. Diversionary tactics. The real aim of Putin’s “Operation Grand Slam” is the destruction of oil supplies and for that Vladimir Putin only needs one country and one person.

    Vladimir Putin needs Iran and Barack Obama.

    Iran is an oil producer. Iran also hates, for religious, political, and financial reasons, the powerhouse oil producer monarchies across the Persian Gulf. There is nothing Iran would like better than to take over or destroy the Gulf state monarchies. Enter Vladimir Putin.

    Vladimir Putin invaded Crimea in order to gain control over offshore oil.

    Vladimir Putin is in Syria to block pipelines to Europe that in future might compete with Russian exports to Europe.

    Vladimir Putin is in the middle east for the same reason Auric Goldfinger went to Fort Knox.

    All Vladimir Putin needs and wants is for middle eastern oil flows to blow up. That’s “Operation Grand Slam” Putin style.

    Putin now has a presence in the middle east. Putin also has a partner in the middle east – Iran. There’s just one other tool Putin needs to make “Operation Grand Slam”.

    Putin needs Barack Obama. Putin has Barack Obama.

    Whether because he is incomparably incompetent or willfully treacherous Barack Obama is Vladimir Putin’s greatest ally. We believe Barack Obama is willfully treacherous because no one can be that stupid and useless.

    Yes, western weakness helps Putin. But, Putin militarily attacking American “allies” in the middle east is a tactical diversion. The middle east adventure is not Afghanistan for Russia. And no, it’s not just about oil prices:

    The more he can entrench himself in the Middle East, the more he can exert control over energy markets. With Iran and Iraq in his sphere he can begin to force Europe to rely on him again for supplies.

    Prolonged war in the Middle East would serve Putin’s interests perfectly. The deeper and more widespread the conflict, the more world oil and gas prices are likely to rise, helping him stage an economic recovery at home and render the sanctions useless.

    That last excerpt is the best understanding of what Putin is up to. But it still falls short. Putin’s “Operation Grand Slam” is about destroying the competition.

    Get rid of the Saudis and the gulf oil states and Auric Goldfinger’s master plan to control gold becomes Vladimir Putin’s brilliant control of black gold.

    Last Wednesday Vladimir Putin celebrated his 63rd birthday. No need to get Putin a belated gift.

    In 2008 Vladimir Putin got the greatest gift any despot could want: Barack Obama.

    None of Vladimir Putin’s plans could ever have worked without weak punk Barack Obama. When “Operation Grand Slam” hits, when the gulf oil states collapse, when Russia becomes a one country OPEC, don’t credit Vladimir Putin. Barack Obama treachery will be to blame.


    Death-throes: #Hillary2016 Finally Joins @RealDonaldTrump Against TPP ObamaTrade Because of #BernieSanders And #DraftBiden

    It’s the right decision. But so badly executed it is more of an execution.

    Hillary Clinton today declared she is against ObamaTrade.

    It is almost as if top level insiders at Hillary2016 plot to destroy Hillary and Hillary2016. Bottom line: Hillary’s late, week before the debate move, won’t help her with the Bernie Sanders’ kooks, hurts her with the Biden “centrist” crowd, and the timing aids Barack Obama’s eventually knife in the back treachery against her.

    We’ve repeatedly expressed our suspicions that the Obama henchmen Hillary has employed for her campaign are out to protect and help Obama at the expense of Hillary’s fortunes. At first glance it would appear that Hillary declaring herself against ObamaTrade runs counter to our doubts about the Obama lovers in Hillary’s campaign. But today’s clumsy declaration, so badly timed it screams “scaredy cat inauthenticity” in sirens, fortifies our thesis.

    Think about it. For months we heard mush from Hillary2016 on ObamaTrade. Bernie Sanders attacked TPP/ObamaTrade and fast track authority. Donald Trump attacked ObamaTrade and fast track authority. Elizabeth Warren, Kween of the Kooks, attacked ObamaTrade and fast track authority. From Hillary there was mush on ObamaTrade and mush on fast track authority.

    Month after month Hillary Clinton could have joined in and attacked ObamaTrade. But from Hillary Clinton there was only the Cavern of Silence. Imagine the strength of the coalition against ObamaTrade and fast track authority if Hillary Clinton joined in. Hillary Clinton arm in arm with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Kook Kween Elizabeth Warren, and many writers/leaders on the left and the right would have been a powerful gravitational force more than sufficient to squash Barack Obama and ObamaTrade. But there was no Hillary against ObamaTrade until now.

    So if we are right and there are top level Obama protectors in Hillary2016 more interested in helping Obama than helping Hillary why would they allow Hillary to speak out against ObamaTrade now? Answer: Mourning Joe Biden’s pending announcement that he is in.

    Mourning Joe Biden will run to protect ObamaTrade. There will soon be in Joe Biden a candidate to champion ObamaTrade. With Hillary and Bernie, along with the others running for the nomination, dividing amongst themselves the votes of those against ObamaTrade, Mourning Joe Biden will be positioned as the sole defender of ObamaTrade.

    Barack Obama would have been hurt if Hillary, Trump, Sanders, Warren, and the rest attacked ObamaTrade with only losers like John Boner firm for ObamaTrade. But with Mourning Joe Biden lined up with Obama and ObamaTrade, the loser in this fight will be dumbass Hillary Clinton left holding the feces filled bag. Hillary’s opposition to ObamaTrade only helps Obama by providing him with an excuse to dump on Hillary and support “loyal” drunk Joe Biden.

    Is there anyone loyal to Hillary in Hillary2016 that also has a brain????

    In 2013 we strongly advised Hillary Clinton to attack Barack Obama. We understood that such an attack would have negative consequences as the Obama kooks would line up against Hillary. But we also understood that the Obama kooks would line up against Hillary no matter what she said or did. The Obama Kooks hate Hillary.

    The time for Hillary to come out against ObamaTrade was during the fast track debate. But from Hillary there was only mush. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump hit hard against fast track. Mush from Hillary. Hillary said Obama should listen to Pelosi but Hillary never said “Vote NO on fast track.”

    Hillary Clinton was always going to have to do what we advised – not because we are the Almighty able to strike down those who do not obey our will. Hillary Clinton was always going to have to do what we advised because in order to win the 2016 election the winning candidate will have to be for CHANGE because the voters understand the country is headed down the wrong track.

    Hillary had to come out against ObamaTrade. Hillary should have come out against ObamaTrade long ago, not the week before the first debate. Instead Hillary chose to announce her opposition to ObamaTrade at the worst possible time for her as Mourning Joe Biden prepares to announce perhaps as early as this weekend.

    If Hillary had announced opposition to ObamaTrade at a time when it was only Bernie Sanders to worry about she would have been seen as weak against Sanders. That would have hurt only a little because Sanders is not seen as a real threat to her. Also Hillary would have joined a phalanx of united opposition to ObamaTrade. But now, Hillary’s timing only serves Mourning Joe’s purposes and Obama.

    Hillary2016’s entire strategy has failed. Hillary2016 has done the opposite of what we advised. We advised she begin her campaign in the states that gave her the greatest margins of victory against Barack Obama. That was so that Hillary2016 could recapture the 2008 magic and bring in the white working class. Instead Hillary2016 has done the opposite of what we suggested and now Bernie Sanders is wooing/winning her voters:

    In rural America, a startling prospect: Voters Obama lost look to Sanders

    MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Shelley Brannon, 62, can sum up the Obama presidency with three words. Well, three words and an exclamation.

    “He screwed us,” said Brannon, a coal miner from Wise County, Va., as he sat outside a rally for the United Mine Workers of America. “Man, he screwed us.”

    He shook his head under a camouflage hat that matched his camouflage UMWA T-shirt, and he described his fantasy of dumping nuclear waste in the yards of environmentalists, “if they think coal’s so bad.” He mulled over the mistake he says the UMWA made in 2008, when it endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Rodham Clinton. Then he explained why he would probably be voting for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the next Democratic primary.

    The white working class voters should have been the bedrock of Hillary2016. Instead, Hillary2016 tried to recreate the situation comedy demographics of the losing Obama coalition. The result is failure:

    West Virginia has rejected the Obama-era Democratic Party more dramatically than any other state outside the South, with Appalachian counties that voted for Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale turning blood red over the past eight years. But if you think it’s in places like this where the insurgent Sanders campaign faces its most formidable test, here’s what he thinks: It is also one of his greatest opportunities.

    The Vermont socialist believes that white, working-class voters — the sort of people Obama once self-defeatingly said “cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them” — are just one honest argument away from coming back.

    “We have millions of working-class people who are voting for Republican candidates whose views are diametrically opposite to what voters want,” Sanders said in an interview. “How many think it’s a great idea that we have trade policies that lead to plants in West Virginia being shut down? How many think there should be massive cuts in Pell grants or in Social Security? In my opinion, not too many people.”

    This state, one of the last to vote in the 2016 primary race, is supposed to be Clinton country. Seven years ago, in the 2008 primary, West Virginia Democrats gave Clinton a landslide victory over Obama. She won 69 percent of the white vote and did even better with voters who lacked a college education. A Democrat who improved a few points on Obama’s 39 percent of the national white vote in the 2012 general election would stroll into the White House.

    Read that last sentence and understand the monumental Mistake in 2016 committed by Hillary2016.