Update: It’s a world-wide open thread: Trumpageddon. Millions of eyeballs tuned in to watch Donald J. Trump feast on loser meat. Will the hunter become the hunted? Will our predictions hold? Stay tuned Bat-friends. The worst is yet to come!!! Poodooodooderooo… bada bada bada bada bada….
What is the single most salient fact about tonight’s main debate? What is the therapeutic reality of Dr. Ben Carson? Is tonight the night of Trump victory? Is tonight the night of Trump defeat? What’s gonna happen? What’s not gonna happen? Who is the most dangerous person on stage against Trump? What outside event will influence the debate the most? What hurts Trump the most? What helps Trump the most? What will Trump do? We answer all those questions again, and more.
First, what is the single most salient fact about tonight’s main debate? Answer: It is a 3 hour debate. This will influence everything that happens, every strategy, every player, every lowlife, every highlife… everything. It is the single most important fact about tonight’s debate. All strategy revolves around the fact that for 180 minutes candidates will have to answer questions. For Trump this could be a problem if he is under sustained attack from everyone else and stumbles or becomes frustrated. For Trump this could be a plus if he allows all the attacks over 3 hours to blend into a “medium is the message” establishment against outsider Trump uber-message that Trumps the overt message of attack words conveyed by the candidates. If Trump keeps his cool for 3 hours and (as we wrote) wins this debate – it is over and Trump is the nominee. This is the last real chance to derail the Trump train. If Trump continues to roll after tonight the tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in attack ads to take down Trump will become a necessity that will not get the job done.
Second, what explains Dr. Ben Carson’s rise in the polls? The main reason for the poll rise is that Carson is a pawn in the game. His job is to destroy Trump, then JeBush and the Republican establishment will crush Gentle Ben in an afternoon. But the main reason for the rise of Ben Carson is that he is a halfway house on the road to Donald Trump. For GOP voters that hate the Republican establishment but don’t like Donald Trump’s style or are not 100% sold on The Donald, they are for now parked in the Ben Carson lot but eventually they will find themselves in the Trump camp.
Third, what will be Donald J. Trump’s main message tonight – the main line of attack – the most important defense/offense of the Trump? Trump telegraphed his message on board the USS Iowa last night. Trump’s main message tonight is that he is the only one that has the oomph, the pizzazz, the va-va-voom, the get-up-n-go, the energy orbs, the cojones, the panache, the getcha-getcha-ya-ya-da-da, the muscle, the mind, the get-it-done energy, the by-the-power-of-Greyskull ability to get the job done. This is how Trump will answer the “outsider” pawns like Fiorina and Carson when they attack him.
Fiorina will attack Trump. Trump can respond with her bad record and firing at Hewlett Packard. Trump can also hit her with the Iran deals Fiorina masterminded while at Hewlett Packard. But at the end of the day Trump’s response will be that he alone has the business experience and the willpower to do what needs to be done. Fiorina might be a good attack dog against Hillary2016 as a VP pick but she is too compromised on illegal immigration (ex-Univision CEO Jerry Perenchio is among her biggest donors) – Trump has that ammunition locked and loaded.
Trump’s strategy will be to note how all the other candidates are compromised by dint of their donors and/or their establishment do-nothing status. For Fiorina and Carson, the “outsider” dupes and pawns in the game fixed by JeBush and the establishment, Trump will point out that they simply can’t get the job done, only Trump can trump the establishment.
As to JeBush, he will try to attack or do something to prove he is alive. But, come on, really, JeBush is not “Veto Corleone” as he likes to say about his record as Florida governor. JeBush is the other Corleone brother – Fredo.
JeBush will hide under Fiorina’s skirt and Carson’s stethoscope, and like a jackal, attack after others attack Trump. JeBush will try to refute the Trump imagery of Bush as “low energy” by ostentatious displays of energy fueled by campaign strategists’ pep pills. But that will fail. JeBush isn’t running for president, he’s walking… The Sista’s got that one nailed.
As we have repeatedly written, the GOP primary is fixed for JeBush, but Trump has upset that plot and all the advantages built in to help JeBush, now help Trump.
The only candidates that matter tonight are Donald J. Trump and Jeb Bush. The rest of the candidates are plant decorations on the stage. Some will be mechanical pawns used by the establishment to prop up the boy who would be king. Some will continue to delude themselves that they have a shot to win if only they can get rid of Trump. But anyone not named Bush will be crushed if Trump is crushed.
Dynasty boy JeBush can only get the nomination if the GOP establishment drags his carcass across the finish line in his walk-a-thon to the presidency. Fredo Bush is the ultimate pawn in the game played by those that want a low wage society.
Trump’s biggest enemy tonight though will not be JeBush, nor any of the candidates on stage. Donald Trump’s biggest and most dangerous enemy tonight will be debate “moderator” Hugh Hewitt who has repeatedly attacked Donald Trump and tonight will wage war against Trump.
What will be the biggest issue that causes trouble for Trump? It will be eminent domain and the reprehensible Kelo decision. This is the issue the Club for Growth will spend millions on in anti-Trump ads. Trump will have to explain his position on Kelo and either state that as a developer he supports the Kelo decision or say that what he supports as a developer and what he will do as president are two different things. For Trump, the trump card on Kelo will be that the GOP establishment is hitting him for something they have done nothing to stop and therefore they are hypocritical liars on the issue. We expect blood to flow on this issue and look forward to hearing this discussed.
Trump’s biggest advantage tonight is that he has been so correct on so many issues and those issues are the top headlines. The Muslim soft invasion of Europe will influence this debate the most. Donald J. Trump is the candidate that took on illegal immigration and it is Donald J. Trump that deserves the credit for saying what needs to be said. Donald Trump leads in the polls because Donald Trump leads on the issues.
Oh, there is a 45 minute losers debate that starts at 6:00 p.m. ET. No questions nor answers about the losers. They’re in a half-way house to obscurity.