Don’t believe the polls about Donald Trump and the GOP nomination race. Trump is tops of the pops, but still the polls are wrong. Donald Trump is even stronger than the polls suggest. The obverse is true about Hillary2016.
Why? As we explained in July, Donald Trump’s mystique is this:
WHEN YOU ARE IN A SNAKE PIT YOU DON’T CARE WHO HANDS YOU A STICK.
Americans find themselves in a snake pit and they welcome the Trump stick to beat back the snakes. We wrote that at a time that the Trump movement was just beginning and it appeared that Trump would be a summer fling like in the movie Grease.
You’re the one that I want Trump style.
After our snake pit analysis, those who despise Donald Trump and find him oh so déclassé tried to explain The Donald’s allure with all sorts of overwrought theories. Most of the theories were not so veiled insults at Trump supporters. The insults, what the Donald Trump haters termed “analysis” but really they were just plain old insults delivered in French or political mush speech, amounted to “anger.”
Yup, anger. Trump voters were “angry” and therefore “emotional” which led to the bad choice “stupid” support for Donald Trump. Some of these establishment insults were softened by political mush speech conceding that ‘the GOP establishment had “overpromised” and not gone crazy in opposition to Obama and anyway, Trump is not a conservative! Trump is not this or that he’s an egotistical so and so and why are these Trump supporters so stupid and HELL why are they supporting Trump even when he says things that would kill candidates and HELL we’re angry that they’re angry and they’re not obeying us and doing as we instruct – dammit don’t they realize we intended to divide and conquer them with Cruz and Paul and those other dupes so that Jeb Bush could take the crown and now they’re coalescing around Trump who doesn’t need establishment support but rather insults us and dammit DON’T THOSE MOTHERFUKCERS REALIZE THEY’RE UPSETTING OUR PLANS FOR BUSH DAMMIT WE’RE SO ANGRY that these Trump supporters are so angry and don’t realize we know best and we are their betters but these Trump supporters are so angry they don’t know what is good for them and we’ll destroy Trump any way using any means and dammit we hate those Trump supporters WE HATE THEM uuuggggghhh!!!!!‘ And so it went with the enlightened unemotional establishment mob.
But it is not anger that motivates the Trump supporter. It is cold hard logic. That overused Einstein bit about doing the same thing and expecting different outcomes being the definition of insanity is at the root of much of what is happening. Voters worldwide recognize that the global establishment political class has more in common with each other than with the constituencies in their own respective countries. And that’s why the polls cannot be trusted. As we explained back in early July:
WHEN YOU ARE IN A SNAKE PIT YOU DON’T CARE WHO HANDS YOU A STICK.
We’ve been warning about this for the longest time. In recent elections in so-called “democratic” countries – the voters are being ignored. In election after election, voters vote for an establishment political party – then once in power the political party they voted for stabs them in the back. Witness the 2014 elections in the United States in which the Republican Party won elections based on opposition to Barack Obama then once in cozy offices they pull out all the stops to assist Barack Obama to pass ObamaTrade. This happens over and over and over.
Eventually voters catch on and they decide to vote for the biggest motherf*cker around who will do what they want. The voters find themselves in a snake pit, surrounded by vipers, and they reach up to grab whatever stick is handed to them.
In Europe, extreme right wing parties increase in popularity. Why? Because the voters find themselves in a snake pit – betrayed by the political parties they vote for based on lies. Eventually the voters say “Fu*k you motherf*ckers, Fu*k you” and Marine Le Pen gathers strength in France, Denmark goes right wing, and the rallies in Germany grow and grow. In many of these cases the issue is immigration and illegal immigration.
The voters trapped in the snake pit learn. Voters lie to pollsters then because the voters see the polls as part of the establishment ruse to tar them as whatever the establishment is against. In Greece the polls showed a 50-50 race on last week’s referendum and instead the results were 60-40. In Israel, Netanyahu was slated to lose, Netanyahu won big. In Great Britain, the Tories were supposed to be wiped out, they won a shocking majority outright. In 2014 it happened in America. In 2016 watch out.
The voters are in a snake pit and Donald Trump is the stick they will use to beat back the vipers.
Yup. “Voters lie to pollsters then because the voters see the polls as part of the establishment ruse to tar them as whatever the establishment is against.” That’s half the reason why Donald Trump is even stronger than polls suggest.
The voters woke up to the fact, somewhat like Russian Ukrainians who “scorched earth” to leave noting at all to the NAZI invaders, that depriving the establishment of their “eyes and ears” – and that is what polls are – the eyes and ears of the establishment – was wise – so the voters lie to the pollsters.
The second portion of the reason why the polls cannot be trusted in the case of Donald Trump is because of the very political correctness Donald Trump decries. It’s a particularly resilient voter in near 100% Democratic Party Manhattan that will dare say “I am a Trump voter.” It’s a thick skinned Republican that will stand up and say “I am a Trump voter.” So the majority of voters, take the easy way out and remain meek and obedient. That is until they get into the voting booth, wherein like Superman (or
Supergirl Superwoman, for the politically correct) they shed the peasant garb and become mighty Americans exercising that nuclear weapon of a free people – the vote.
“Can’t start a fire without a spark.” Trump is that spark. So don’t believe the polls. Donald Trump is stronger than the polls reflect. Further, contrary to establishment class claims that voters will abandon their summer fling with Trump once it is time to vote, Trump will only gain once the voting begins.
But what about Iowa? Iowa has that wacky system without the secret ballot. What will happen in Iowa? As Trump maintains support and more and more people detect that their friends, neighbors, and family, are also secret Trump supporters (or Trump haters for that matter) they will either succumb or be emboldened. If Iowa voters weaken and decide not to express themselves openly for Trump, then Trump will have to rely on the voters in secret ballot states.
So the task for Donald Trump in Iowa is simple. Like an activist for Queer Nation or ACT-UP, Donald Trump has to have his Iowa supporters “come out of the closet.”
This task for Donald Trump in Iowa should have been difficult. It should have been difficult to get voters to come out of the closet in support of Trump. But, oddly enough, Trump already leads in Iowa. And therein lies the danger for the establishment (which we define as “both parties, Big Media, lobbyists, special interests, unions, the Chamber of Commerce, the regulatory bureaucratic state, and all those who encourage or feed upon this gargantuan power structure” and as we have been asked to include, the cultural establishment in Hollywood and other bastions of politically correct propaganda.)
What we see has happened already is that individual Trump supporters have connected with other Trump supporters. Like little raindrops they have formed puddles. Those little raindrops and puddles can be understood as a few individuals and small groups of voters that become bigger groups and bigger groups and soon those bigger groups grow ever bigger and they connect with other big groups and before you know it they outgrow the “group” category. They become an insurrection.
For Hillary2016 the obverse is true. Voters will lie to pollsters and express support for her in public but in private, watch out. Unless there is drastic change and ISIS style beheadings in Brooklyn along a clear declaration that it is “time for change” not “stay the course” the insurrectionist pitchforks will burn her campaign like a torch thrown on August haystacks.