Update II: Morning Consult poll: Trump’s lead grows after GOP debate to 32 percent, now ahead by more than 20 points. Trigger warning: check out the chart at the link. Meggyn Kelly has Frank Luntz egg all over her.
Triple Trumpnado? Trump’s popularity continues to climb as PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican field in the state even after a weekend of controversy. Trump at 19%, Bush at 11%, and as we write below, the losers don’t matter in this fixed wrestling match. Then there’s this Exclusive: Trump’s Republican support holds strong post-debate – Reuters/Ipsos poll. Drudge was right, Luntz was wrong, Fox News and GOP establishment busy with plots and schemes to push Bush.
Hillary2016 better learn from Trump and worry. Bush v. Hillary means Hillary wins. Hillary v. Trump? All bets are off.
Update: Peace in our time: Fox News reportedly in talks with Trump for interview in primetime tonight. Peace through strength!
Why will Fox News capitulate to The Donald? Because tens of thousands of Fox News viewers are boycotting the network. Because tens of thousands of Meggyn Kelly fans are blasting her on her very own Facebook page. Because the Trump interview which drew BLOOD was on CNN opposite Meggyn’s show. Because Trump has the drawing power to hurt Fox News if he continues to target Fox News prime time by going on CNN (which incidentally will host the next debate so Trump getting eyeballs to CNN, building up his CNN cred, and hurting egg-on-her-face Meggyn is triple Trumpnado).
There is also this which proves the Fox News fail and the Trump Triumph: Holy Guacamole Batman! New sciency poll out:
Donald Trump’s lead over his Republican presidential rivals grew substantially in the days following the first GOP debate and his controversial comments about moderator Megyn Kelly.
Trump’s support increased by 7 points, to 32 percent, according to the latest Morning Consult tracking poll.
The real estate mogul’s closest rival — former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — lost 1 point, down to 11 percent support among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
Support for all other candidates was in the single digits in the poll.
Is there anything dumber than a Ted Cruz supporter? Well, maybe a Carly Fiorina supporter. Maybe a Ben Carson supporter. Maybe a Rubio supporter. Maybe a Paul supporter. Maybe a Christie supporter. Maybe a Walker supporter. Maybe a Huckabee supporter. Maybe Perry/Santorum/Pataki/Jindal/Gilmore/Graham supporter(s), if any.
Some of the dummies will find what we say provocative. But take it from those of us who attended the 2008 Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee. We know what we are talking about and you are all total dummies no matter how smart you think you are.
We’ll start off slowly. Why do you dummies think that in the early primaries the delegates won will be distributed proportionate to the margin of victory of the (many) candidates? Why do you fools think that the first state that is winner take all is one of the most delegate rich states and that state happens to be Jeb Bush’s Florida? Why do you numbskulls think that there are only about 10 debates this election cycle compared to the 27 of the last election cycle?
All of this is designed to help one candidate snuff out the possibility of a debate based campaign from an undercapitalized candidate and to assure that the candidate with the most money and the biggest organization will be the eventual nominee. That was the plan… it was designed to nominate Jeb Bush… the plan would have worked… but then came Trump.
We know the above are difficult for those who don’t understand the rules of the game or how to win by fixing the rules of the game. Many of you would place bets to win on a horse that is lame and cross-eyed. Yeah, you really like that horse and you’re sure that horse is great so… gee… I’m gonna bet on that horse.
We’re going to post now two good reasons why you are all dummies. Most of you are too stupid to understand so we will try to spell it out for you, if necessary with those magnetic color alphabet sets children stick on refrigerators.
Here’s the first clue, which we ourselves wrote, as a preamble to our discussion of the Losers’ Forum which preceded the great debate last Thursday:
Big Media decides who gets coverage, the type of coverage, which polls to laud, which polls to ignore then uses the coverage and the polls to decide who gets to be a legitimate candidate on the debate stage. It’s an outrage. Worse, the political parties and the political candidates not only put up with this, they encourage the Big Media and establishment corruption of our political process because they are all part of the corrupt establishment.
We’re gonna strain your feeble minds now, even though we’re sure you did not understand our previous paragraph(s), so reach for your Ginko Biloba and try to follow. We know you object to our citation of something we ourselves wrote so now we will quote from someone who has attacked this website, hates this website, and is considered somewhat prominent even though he graduated from the DailyKooks website. Gird yourselves now. There will be some words larger than “cat” and “dog.” Some of the concepts (that means thinky things) might elude (that means you might not understand because you mind is to un-evolved) you but do try and follow, idiots:
Stage 6: Endgame
When it happens: June through Republican National Convention, July 18-21
Potential threat to Trump: The Republican Party does everything in its power to deny him the nomination.
If Trump makes it past Stage 4, we’ll have to consider his campaign successful, up to a point. He’ll have gotten further than any similar candidate has in the past. But he’d still be a long way from winning the nomination, and the final two stages might be his hardest yet.
The Republican Party’s delegate selection rules are straightforward in some states but byzantine in others, especially in caucus states where delegates are sometimes not formally pledged to the candidate who apparently earned their support on election night. Furthermore, about 7 percent of delegates to the RNC are party leaders — what Democrats would call “superdelegates” — who are usually not bound by the results of the popular vote in their states at all.
This introduces a little bit of slack into the system. It works in favor of establishment-backed candidates, or those who have an intricate understanding of the delegate rules. And it works against candidates like Trump.
Regular FiveThirtyEight readers will be familiar with “The Party Decides” paradigm of the nomination process. It posits that the nominee represents the consensus choice of influential members of the party, and that rank-and-file voters serve mostly to vet and validate the candidates in the event of a close call.
Much of the party’s influence consists of what you might call “soft power,” the ability to influence outcomes by persuasion rather than coercion. But the party also has some “hard power”: It literally makes the rules. It can rule against candidates it doesn’t like in the event of delegate-counting disputes. It can probably even change the rules midstream. There isn’t a lot of precedent to worry about violating, since it’s been 40 years since Republicans came close to a brokered convention.
If Trump made it this far, the Republican Party would go to extraordinary lengths to avoid nominating him. In “The Party Decides” view, parties are basically looking for two things from their nominees: They want them to be reliable (meaning, they can be counted on to enact the Republican agenda once in office), and they want them to be electable (meaning, they can win in November).
Hold your horses dummies. By now you are saying “aha, you see Donald Trump will never win. Why is this article calling supporters of other candidates stupid when what that article clearly states is that Trump can’t win the Republican Party nomination?” Now take your meds and try to follow the reasoning (thinky things) of what we have just written.
We’ll explain it to you now: This GOP primary election is a fix. The entire primary process and schedule was designed to nominate Jeb Bush. But Donald Trump surprised everyone and got in the race. Donald Trump has the money. Donald Trump has the Big Media expertise. Donald Trump has the experience of dealing in politics and with politicians. It was all “fixed” for Jeb Bush and then Trump got in.
As we wrote before, Trump can win. Why? Trump can win because he can take advantage of the fix that was set up to benefit Jeb Bush. Put that in your jock straps and wiggle.
Donald Trump has the financial advantage Jeb Bush thought he would have. Donald Trump can not only win (according to all the polls from those states) Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina (latest poll there has Donald Trump ahead with 34% Jeb Bush 10%) but he can knock out Jeb Bush and win Florida and all those many many delegates. No other candidate can do that.
Hey, dummies, why do we call you dummies, especially you Ted Cruz dummies? We call you dummies because you think that once Trump goes away your candidate will rise and maybe have a chance to win. That’s so stupid. Your candidates don’t have a chance. The fix is in. We think Ted Cruz supporters are especially stupid because they think that the establishment figure most hated by the establishment due to his personality and obnoxiousness (which we do think should be admired by the way) won’t be swept away with ease by the very forces that have tried with all their raw power and vitriol to destroy Donald Trump.
We have to mock any and all supporters of candidates who say “oh, I like so-and-so,” “oh, so-and-so is so inspirational,” “so-and-so candidate is really blah-blah-blah and I really think that he/she has a strong chance to win this thing,” or the dumbest of all “I just want a candidate that can win and so-and-so is it!” Hardy-hardy-har-har – LOL – ROTFL – Ha!
The fix is in dummies. Only one candidate can win now other than Jeb Bush. Like it or not it is Trump or Bush.
We waited until after the first debate to make this assessment. But it is clear now that Trump is the sole alternative. If Trump is knocked out one by one the others – Cruz, Paul, Walker, Kasich, Rubio, will be dismantled and sent to oblivion. The fix is in. The establishment gets what it wants. Except of course that Donald Trump remains standing.
There are a few other things we want to make everyone aware of. Did you know that Fox News had a plan to evict Trump from the debates physically? It’s likely that Fox News wanted to provoke Trump into an explosion so that they could have armed guards come in and remove him:
They reviewed not just the questions they would ask, but the structure of every query, keeping in mind the constraints of time and the need to avoid repeating topics. As they sorted and re-sorted questions, the unpredictability of real estate tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump was never far from their minds.
Baier even had a “nuclear option” at the ready for Trump if he ignored all protocol.
The script — which he didn’t have to use — took a page from Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” TV show. It went like this: “Mr. Trump in your business you have rules. You follow rules. We have rules on this stage. We don’t want to have to escort you to the elevator outside this boardroom.”
“We’re hoping we don’t have to use it,” Baier said later. “We’re locked and loaded.”
They baited Trump on purpose to then try to evict him.
Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone, no admirer of Trump has warnings and observations the GOP better understand:
Republican Assault on Trump May Only Make Him Stronger
Party insiders ganged up on Trump in the first GOP debate, but the tactic may backfire [snip]
In thinking about what actually happened last night, i.e. what was meaningful as opposed to merely lurid and entertaining, you have to start with the performance of Trump, who might just have lured the Republican Party into a trap from which it will not escape.
There was clearly an effort last night by Republican party interests to knock Trump off his frontrunner pedestal. We saw ambush tactics from the start.
Bret Baier started the whole thing off by asking the candidates to promise they wouldn’t run on a third-party ticket. Trump declined, highlighting his non-Republican-ness. Megyn Kelly followed up by asking Trump to defend his record of calling women “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” and then made his probable inability to score female votes in a race against Hillary part of her question.
Later questions targeted Trump’s heretical views on abortion and health care, and his history of donating money to the likes of Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.
No other candidate got anything near this kind of treatment in the debate. A more typical question was Baier softballing Mike Huckabee, asking: “Is the government simply too big for any one person, even a Republican, to shrink?”
Then there was the postgame show. Fox had pollster Frank Luntz come on and speak with a “focus group” that expressed concern about the damage Trump will do to the party. [snip]
That Fox and the other “contestants” onstage were ganging up on Trump was clear enough, but it hasn’t stopped there. Trump is now also seeing a wave of punditry pieces flowing in from traditional conservative outlets slamming his campaign. The National Review’s Jonah Goldberg wrote a long piece this month, “Trump fans, it’s time for an intervention.” [snip]
Meanwhile, Rich Lowry at the Review called the debate a “fabulously awful” night for Trump. He slobbered over the rest of the field. He said Bush “made no mistakes, ” Christie was “forceful,” Carson was “winsome,” Kasich “more of a presence than I would have thought,” and Huckabee was “incapable of having a bad debate.”
Meanwhile, Fox contributor Charles Krauthammer gleefully declared the debate to be the “end of Trump,” saying that he looked “lost.” [snip]
What the Goldbergs and the Wills and Krauthammers of the world probably don’t get is that by singling Trump out for abuse, they’re almost certainly boosting his campaign. First of all, while it might have looked like a damning image to see Trump alone onstage with his hand up and refusing to pledge not to run as an Independent, on another level it was a great Trump moment. As it has been all season, there was Trump, and everyone else. That scene just made the other nine guys onstage look like what they are, stooges beholden to their party and their donors, unable to think for themselves.[snip]
Assuming this doesn’t all end in Trump becoming president and the world shortly thereafter ending in nuclear apocalypse, this twist might end up being the funniest thing to come out of the debate and the campaign in general.[snip]
We may not be laughing two years from now, but for the time being, man, what a show.
There is a lot of leftist claptrap and whistling past the graveyard from Taibbi but even he understands that there was and is a concerted effort to destroy Trump by the GOP establishment and that the effort might make Trump stronger.
After the first GOP debate it is clear that if Trump is destroyed Jeb Bush is the Republican nominee for president. We have very little doubt that in a Clinton versus Bush race there is only one possible outcome: President Hillary Clinton.
We don’t know what happens if Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee for president. But we have written before that Hillary2016 should learn from Trump about how to handle Big Media and that Hillary Clinton should be very afraid of a Donald Trump nomination. Donald Trump has many admirers that Hillary2016 might not expect.
We do think Donald Trump has some chance to win the nomination mostly because of this:
Donald J. Trump is running a real HOPE AND CHANGE campaign with unceasing attacks on the political establishment of the country which includes both parties, Big Media, lobbyists, special interests, unions, the Chamber of Commerce, the regulatory bureaucratic state, and all those who encourage or feed upon this gargantuan power structure – which is what makes Trump so difficult to destroy.
The Republican/Big Media/Hollywood/political class establishment will try to stop Donald Trump. But Donald Trump, aside from his message and his “crusade” against the establishment campaign holds a Trump card that no other candidate in this political casino can bet on which is why Trump won the GOP debate.
The establishment will consider and threaten to use the rules and all the soft and hard power of the party bosses against Trump. The GOP establishment might try to do to Trump what the DNC did to Hillary such as give delegates she won at the ballot box to a candidate that was not even on the ballot. The GOP might try to steal the election from Trump.
The Trump card, which drives the GOP establishment wild because they see that with that one card Trump holds them, like wolves, at bay. Trump can run as an independent and has nicely said so.
The fear for the GOP is that Trump can run as an independent and lay waste to all the plots and schemes to gift the nomination to Jeb Bush. No other candidate has that Trump card. No other candidate was smart enough to strategize as to how to fight the GOP establishment. All the other candidates were dummies. You do see that, don’t you, Cruz dummies?