Meet Rosie Scenario. Marriage to Rosie looks like a good idea at the beginning. But Rosie tends to trip down stairs, gets grumpy, then turns sour. But for now let’s trip the life fantastic with Rosie at our side.
Hillary2016 has a romance with Rosie Scenario. Here’s Rosie, via a crystal ball polished by Larry Sabato:
Is Florida the key state for the upcoming 2016 presidential election? Is it the decider – whichever candidate takes its 29 electoral votes, takes the White House as well?
After spending a few hours fiddling with vote maps we think there’s a good argument that’s the case. [snip]
The foundation of this theory is the fact that over the past 15 years the nation’s electoral map has been unusually stable. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato and the crew at his “Crystal Ball” newsletter make this point in their newest issue. Since 2000, 40 of the 50 states have voted for the same party at the presidential level every single time. Five of the remaining 10 states have voted with the same party in three of the four elections.
Only five states have split, voting twice for Republicans, and twice for Democrats, since 2000. These swing states are Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
According to “Crystal Ball,” this likely split is 247 electoral votes for Democrats, and 206 for Republicans. Remember – 270 is the magic winning number. So the Democrats are pretty close there, right at the start.
If nothing else the Democrats are close enough to have a margin for error. They could lose one or both of the biggest swing states and still put together a victory.
Florida has 29 electoral votes. Rosie Scenario, fresh from Common Core math courses, takes several hours to figure out what this means. Common Core failures that we are we will summarize: 247 + 29 = 276.
Rosie Scenario says if Hillary Clinton campaigns only in Florida she wins. Pour all resources (time, money, organization, appearances) into Florida and it leads to victory. Rosie Scenario smiles.
“In theory, Hillary Clinton could campaign exclusively in Florida for the next 18 months and still be the odds-on favorite to win the presidency,” writes the conservative commentator.
Rosie Scenario is ecstatic and so informs Hillary Hater Maggie Haberman at the New York Times:
Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be dispensing with the nationwide electoral strategy that won her husband two terms in the White House and brought white working-class voters and great stretches of what is now red-state America back to Democrats.
Instead, she is poised to retrace Barack Obama’s far narrower path to the presidency: a campaign focused more on mobilizing supporters in the Great Lakes states and in parts of the West and South than on persuading undecided voters.
Mrs. Clinton’s aides say it is the only way to win in an era of heightened polarization, when a declining pool of voters is truly up for grabs. Her liberal policy positions, they say, will fire up Democrats, a less difficult task than trying to win over independents in more hostile territory — even though a broader strategy could help lift the party with her.
This early in the campaign, however, forgoing a determined outreach effort to all 50 states, or even most of them, could mean missing out on the kind of spirited conversation that can be a unifying feature of a presidential election. And it could leave Mrs. Clinton, if she wins, with the same difficulties Mr. Obama has faced in governing with a Republican-controlled Congress.
Rosie will have none of it. Rosie closes her eyes and ears and ignores Obama history, via once lucid, now full tilt kook, Brent Budowsky:
Here is the scoreboard of the political legacy that Obama may leave his party:
When Obama assumed office, Democrats controlled the House of Representatives. That majority was destroyed and a Republican House was elected on Obama’s watch.
When Obama assumed office, Democrats controlled the Senate. That majority was destroyed and a Republican Senate was elected on Obama’s watch.
When Obama assumed office, Democrats controlled a majority of governorships. The majority was destroyed, and Republicans took a majority of governorships on Obama’s watch, which led to the reapportionment after the 2010 Census that was catastrophic for House Democrats.
Rosie snorts and says “stick with Obama.”
Rosie Scenario somersaulted into sunshine when she heard the sunshine strategy was already in full swing:
Ceding Nothing to Bush, Clinton Lays Groundwork in Florida
The presumptive Democratic candidate is taking early campaign steps in a state Republicans likely need to win the White House.
MIAMI—Publicly, Bill Clinton’s crisscrossing of Florida last year was part of Democrats’ effort to retake the governor’s office. But in behind-the-scenes conversations, the former president was working toward an additional goal: scouting out Hillary Clinton’s chances for victory here in 2016.
Analyzing out loud, the former president talked to friends and operatives alike about how to win the nation’s largest swing state, particularly in the event that two of its favorite sons—former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio—enter the race.
The consensus: Florida is up for grabs.
The former president’s political reconnaissance is an early indication that his wife has little intention of ceding the state, which many consider Bush country, in her presidential bid. While those close to Hillary Clinton maintain that her immediate attention will be focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, the early-voting states that kick off the primary season, Florida Democrats say her camp is taking early steps in the state—a place that has both lifted and frustrated the Clintons’ political careers. [snip]
For the Clintons, Florida occupies a special place in family lore.
Bill often credits his win in the state’s straw poll in 1991 as a critical moment in his own presidential campaign, boosting him from obscurity to rising political star. (He lost the state in the 1992 general election but won it in 1996.)
For Hillary, the memories are more bittersweet. After losing the hotly contested 2008 South Carolina primary to Obama, she won Florida but was denied its delegates because the state had violated party rules by holding an early primary. The win was little more than a symbolic show of strength that left her supporters feeling disenfranchised after record voter turnout.
“Florida could have been the springboard that clearly set a path to victory for her,” said Ana Cruz, a Democratic strategist who helped run Clinton’s effort in the state. [snip]
Reeling from a series of losses in statewide contests, Florida Democrats are already offering the Clintons campaign advice, telling the couple that Hillary Clinton must travel outside the Democratic bastions of South Florida and compete for working-class, white women in the northern reaches of the state.
“Won’t happen again” says Rosie. “This time Florida’s in the bag.” The consequences of that victory, says Larry Sabato are big:
First, if Republicans lose either Florida or Ohio, the nominee has no realistic path to victory. Both states are typically at least slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. [snip]
Second, while there are credible Democratic paths to the White House without Virginia, anything other than a win or a loss by just a percent or two in the Old Dominion will signal the Democrat’s downfall.
Rosie says don’t worry about Virginia. There’s a governor there who is a strong Hillary ally. Rosie says don’t worry that in Florida and Ohio the Republicans controls House, Senate, governorship and all statewide offices – thanks to Barack Obama. “It’s in the bag”, says Rosie.
Is a Clinton condo in Bradenton next.
And, um, the Hillary2016 fundraising numbers are in for the first quarter: $45 million.
“It’s in the bag”, says Rosie. Nothing can go wrong.