Every Obama policy is on the ballot today. Every single Obama policy is on the ballot today. Barack Obama campaigned on the premise that all his policies are on the ballot today. Every Republican campaigned against Obama’s policies. The choice is very clear today.
Today America will either reject Barack Obama and his policies or endorse Barack Obama and his policies.
It’s going to be an update kind of day. As election returns begin to come in we will update even more frequently.
Unlike the conventional wisdom we think the night’s results will be quickly determined. The first series of states to close polls will tell us a great deal. If, for instance, Republicans win in East Coast states that they were supposed to lose because they were behind in the polls, then it’s going to be a good night for Republicans. If the Obama Dimocrats win in places they should lose then it will be a good day for corruption and flim-flams.
If the first series of returns are tight then expect a long night that might not be resolved until the last drug store has sold it’s last pill – in other words: Alaska.
But we think the races will come in fast and, um, furious.
At 6:00 p.m. on the East Coast some Kentucky and Indiana polls will close. If McConnell wins, as we expect, then the night’s results will likely track with our expectations. If Grimes wins it will be a grim night as Lucy once again grabs the football away from Republicans. Look to Jefferson County for clues. Grimes should win big there (minimum 60%). If she doesn’t win big there she won’t win anywhere Ditto Fayette County.
As we have written before, a loss for Obama Dimocrats in the state legislature will also mean Kentucky will become the 25th state to be a right-to-work state. Big Labor might hit the tipping point to death tonight in Kentucky.
At 7:00 p.m. ET all polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. Also parts of Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close. Jackpot!
Florida voters lose no matter the governor they choose. A Republican victory there will be a straw in the wind that might or might not indicate something – most likely a good night for Republicans elsewhere. A big Republican win would be a strong indicator that it is going to be a good night for Republicans. For Obama Dimocrats to win Crist better win solidly (60% plus) in Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, and Pinellas counties.
Also in Florida the race results for Obama Dimocrat Joe Garcia in the 26th CD will bear watching. Ditto Patrick Murphy in the 18th CD.
In Georgia Obama Dimocrat dynasties are on the line. Jimmy Carter’s grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn’s daughter running for U.S. Senate (in an election which requires 50% + 1 to win and not require a runoff election in January) will likely lose (either tonight or in the runoff). Outright Republican wins here tonight will be strong clues of a big night for them elsewhere look to Gwinnett County for a necessary big win for Nunn if she is to win). The 12th CD results (a D seat) will also provide entrails to read on nationwide results.
New Hampshire will mostly close at 7. Obama Dimocrat Jeanne Shaheen should win if the polls are correct. But if Brown wins (we think he has an excellent chance to do so) then it is all over for Obama and his policies which are on the ballot tonight.
Also in New Hampshire watch the 1st CD. Obama Dimocrat Carol Shea-Porter should lose to Frank Guinta. In the 2nd CD a defeat for Anne Kuster by Marilinda Garcia would be a bell ringer tolling defeat for Obama Dimocrats nationwide. Same holds true in the governor’s race. If Obama Dimocrat Hassan unexpectedly loses (or performs weakly) to Havenstein, bolt the door Louise.
In South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley should win. If the man who called her a “whore” wins then Obama Dimocrats will have a good whoring night.
In Virginia, Obama Dimocrat Mark Warner should easily win against Ed Gillespie. If victory comes with a slim margin that would be an ominous indication for Obama Dimocrats nationwide. If Ed Gillespie impossibly wins – it means Obama Dimocrats can forget about bolting the door because the door will be ablaze and nationwide massive defeats are on the way. Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties in the north will be the last to report and decisive. The swing 10th CD will provide weak clues to nationwide results if the GOP (Foust) loses here (to Comstock).
At 7:30 p.m. ET North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia polls close. Obama Dimocrat Kay Hagen better win here or Republicans will have a massive wave to surf on. So much is at stake here, so many future plans on the line, that a defeat here will have national implications for years to come. Wake County better come in big (55-69%) for Hagen.
In Ohio Governor John Kasich will win an “epic victory”. Expect Republican sweeps throughout the state. As goes Ohio so goes the nation.
West Virginia is an easy win for the GOP. Anything less means trouble. In the 3rd CD Obama Dimocrat Nick Rahall should lose. The 2nd CD should also, despite Obama Dimocrat efforts, stay GOP. Any surprises here and Lucy takes the football.
At 8:00 p.m. ET Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the rest of Florida, Illinois, the CT zones of Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, the ET zones of Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, all of New Hampshire, New Jersey, the CT zones of North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, the CT zones of South Dakota, Tennessee, the CT zones of Texas, and D.C. close.
The races we’ll watch are the weird race for governor in Connecticut. Obama Dimocrat Governor Malloy might lose to gooper Tom Foley. It’s a deep blue state so it means something. GOP victories in the Obama Dimocrat 4th and 5th CDs will also mean trouble for Obama Dimocrats nationwide.
Obama’s deep blue state of Illinois might get a GOP governor (Bruce Rauner) to replace Obama Dimocrat Pat Quinn, which will bedevil Barack. CDs to watch are the Obama Dimocrat 10th and 12th (which should go GOP) as well as the 11th and 17th – any victories here and Republicans have the football, not Lucy.
The big question mark this election season is Kansas. Governor Brownback is in trouble as is Senator Roberts. If both win it’s great news for the GOP. If Roberts loses then the GOP will need, not just want, wins in some of the blue states like New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado. If Roberts wins any victories in these states is gravy on the potatoes, cherries on the sundae.
A GOP victory in the governor’s race in Maine will indicate the north east firewalls are breached. It could indicate the 2nd CD which Obama Dimocrats should win could also go to the goopers.
That anyone is even talking about Maryland is a sign of the carnage caused by Ebola Obama. Obama Dimocrat Anthony Brown better win or Obama will cry.
That anyone is even talking about Massachusetts has Chappaquiddick Chauffeur Ted Kennedy drinking in his grave. Republican Charlie Baker might win here and the Obama Dimocrat firewalls will be on fire. Look to the 6th CD and the 9th CD for more Obama Dimocrat disasters.
In Michigan the goopers might keep the governor’s mansion, or not. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land once had a chance of winning here but that chance has largely evaporated. If Land even comes close to shore it will be good news for the GOP. If she wins… we run out of analogies, superlatives, and metaphors.
In New Jersey Cory Booker’s margins will provide some data as to the GOP tide or wave. Republicans should win the 3rd CD away from Obama Dimocrats if their ship comes in.
In Pennsylvania the Obama Dimocrat Tom Wolf should easily beat the Republican governor Tom Corbett. If the race is tight or Corbett holds on then nothing is safe for Obama Dimocrats. Watch the 6th and 8th CDs for any signs of unexpected down ballot help by a Tom Wolf victory.
In Rhode Island the GOP has a teeny-tiny chance of victory in the governor’s race. If that chance grows into three cherries on the slots, then it is a wave for the goopers.
South Dakota should be an easy victory for the GOP. If anything unexpected to happen to help Obama Dimocrats is to happen – expect it here.
In Texas it’s GOP heaven. Anything else will mean trouble for Team Red.
Arkansas should be a GOP win for Tom Cotton over Mark Pryor. If not…. We’ll also look to see what happens in the 2nd CD. Obama Dimocrats think they have a chance in the 2nd.
At 9:00 p.m. ET polls close in Arizona, Colorado, all of Kansas, Louisiana, all of Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, the rest of North Dakota, the rest of South Dakota, all of Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
We’ll be watching the following:
Obama Dimocrats should lose the 1st, 2nd and 9th CDs in Arizona.
In Colorado Mark Udall will lose. If he doesn’t then something is wrong with pre-election polls or else Obama Dimocrats are in election theft mode. The Obama Dimocrat passed Colorado election law is a burglars tool for election theft. Cory Gardner tonight will become Senator Cory Gardner.
Second Amendment enemy Governor John Hickenlooper is also on the ballot. If Hickenlooper loses to a gooper it will not be a great surprise but a surprise nevertheless.
In Louisiana Obama Dimocrat race-baiting Senator Mary Landrieu will lose tonight or in the runoff. As in Georgia an outright GOP win that thereby avoids a runoff election will indicate a big or massive GOP 2014 wave. Look to Jefferson Parish to indicate a Landrieu loss overall if she does not win here.
In Minnesota there once was a chance for Obama Dimocrat Governor Mark Dayton as well as Obama Dimocrat Al Franken to lose. No more. Any GOP victory here or a close race for the senate will indicate a good GOP night. We’ll also look at developments in the 7th and 8th CDs for Obama Dimocrat losses.
Surprise! We’ve even looking at election results in New York state. The 1st, (GOP) 11th, and 24th CDs should go or stay GOP. The 18th CD should stay Obama Dimocrat but there is a chance for a flip here which would be yet another indicator of a good GOP night.
The Wisconsin governor race has 2016 implications. A Walker win is big news. The legislature will stay GOP so a loss will not be a disaster for the GOP but a calamity for Walker. A Walker win and he becomes a strong 2016 contender. Is it too early to speculate Walker/Kasich?
At 10:00 p.m. ET polls close in the mountain zones of Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, the mountain zones of Oregon, and Utah.
It’s all about Iowa at this time. Joni Ernst should win. If Ernst loses the big loser is the Des Moines Register poll’s fall from the heavens. If Ernst loses it will be a great hurt for the GOP. She has a great future if she wins but if she loses she’ll be watching On The Waterfront mouthing the famous line by Marlon Brando alongside Mitch McConnell.
In Iowa the 1st and 2nd CDs should also fall to the GOP if there is a GOP wave or tide.
In Montana the Republicans will win. A victory here for Dims and the Obama’s will be sipping Champagne.
In Nevada the 4th CD should go red.
In Utah Mia Love should replace an Obama Dimocrat. If not, the wave is a weak ripple.
At 11:00 p.m. ET California, Hawaii, all of Oregon, and Washington polls close.
In California the Obama Dimocrats in the 7th, 26th, 36th, and 52nd CDs are in trouble.
In Oregon Monica Wehby once had a chance of winning a Senate seat. No longer. Only with a meteor hitting the earth with consequent massive waves can she now win.
Even in Hawaii Obama Dimocrats are roasted pigs. The GOP has a chance to win the Governor’s mansion and the 1st CD.
In Washington the 1st CD is a potential GOP win.
Midnight will find the majority of polls close in Alaska and all the polls in Alaska will shut down at 1:00 p.m. ET. The GOP should win the senate seat away from Senator Mark Begich.
In every state, on every ballot, Barack Obama and his policies are on the ballot. The Obama Dimocrat party is in shambles.