David Messina, Donna Brazile, Claire McCaskill, have decided to save themselves by ostentatiously endorsing Hillary Clinton 2016 contra what they did in 2008. Messina’s PAC, Brazile, and McCaskill also think this is a smart way to imprison Hillary Clinton into support of the flaccid and droopier by the day Barack Obama even though this hurts Hillary Clinton 2016.
Messina, Brazile, McCaskill and the assorted DailyKooks that termed Hillary Clinton 2008 a ‘racist corporatist dynastic has been’ have Barack Obama’s interests, not Hillary Clinton 2016, as their concern. Messina, Brazile, McCaskill and the DailyKooks do not want Hillary Clinton to denounce Barack Obama and all his works and thereby turn lame duck Barack Obama into dead duck Barack Obama.
Wayne Gretzky, the greatest hockey player ever once said I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Where is that lousy puck, Barack Obama, going to be in 2015 and 2016 when the next presidential election cycle is in full play? Brian Schweitzer, ready to run in 2016, thinks Obama will be a dead weight in 2016 and that’s why he is running away from that puck Obama:
“This Democrat thinks he can win in 2016 as the anti-Obama
The question was simple enough: Is there a single thing President Obama has done that you consider a positive achievement?
Finally, he spoke.
“My mother, God rest her soul, told me ‘Brian, if you can’t think of something nice to say about something change the subject,’” he said.
But he couldn’t help himself, slamming Obama’s record on civil liberties (the NSA revelations were “un-effing-believable”), his competency (“They just haven’t been very good at running things”), and above all, Obamacare (“It will collapse on its own weight”).
Schweitzer is not a serious candidate and poses no threat to Hillary Clinton 2016 but Schweitzer see Barack Obama as the little puck he is and knows that Barack Obama is poison and by 2016 Barack Obama will be radioactive – dangerous to even approach lest you glow unnaturally.
“When you choose your next national leader, ask them how they’re going to be different than Bush,” Schweitzer told msnbc. “Ask them how they’re going to be different than Obama.”
On the eve of Martin Luther King’s birthday, Barack Obama’s long time mentor, friend, and pastor, Jeremiah Wright, quoted King saying “I have a dream” and mocked Barack by attributing “I have a drone” to him. Michael Moore in a widely discussed article called ObamaCare “awful“. And Cher, even Cher says “Obama let us down.” Cher has lost hope and has gotten back to her counter-cultural roots by declaring she does not trust the government. These accurate assessments of Barack Obama come from the left yet some think Hillary Clinton 2016 should um, cling, to Obama.
Republicans/conservatives are especially confused about Hillary Clinton 2016 and instead of looking for where the hockey puck will be, prefer to listen to Obama propagandists. They think it is insane to run from Obama. “It’s insane” they say, what Schweitzer says The former governor is gambling that Democrats won’t just want an alternative to Clinton in 2016–they’ll want a complete and total rejection of the Obama presidency. “That’s insane” they say:
“Which is insane. Specifically, as Jamelle Bouie says, it’s insane because black Democrats continue to support O with stratospheric job approval numbers after turning out for him to an unprecedented degree in 2012. If they had turned out at the same rate that year as they did in 2004, Romney would have won the election — and Democratic leaders are, of course, keenly aware of it. Their great fear in 2016 is that black and Latino turnout rates will revert to pre-Obama levels, leaving the party in deep trouble against a strong GOP nominee. (That’s why Christie worked hard to pad his margins with Latinos in his gubernatorial run last year. Ninety percent of his own primary pitch will be aimed at convincing righties that he can pick off more votes from those more or less ungettable groups than anyone else can.) The point is, as natural as it is for ideologues to try to reorient a party their way after eight years of an incumbent president making compromises to stay viable in the center, liberal Democrats have a special challenge in running away from O. They need to reject disfavored parts of his legacy while taking care not to reject them too harshly lest minority voters in the Obama coalition take offense.”
That’s sensible but only if you believe that the Obama coalition is an enduring coalition. If you believe that young voters burned by ObamaCare and the NSA will not vote for someone who tells the truth about Obama then Schweitzer is insane. If you believe that the black unemployed and a destroyed black middle class must be kept from the truth about Barack lest they turn on you then Schweitzer is insane. If you think that the Latino jobless will reject truth for love of Barack then Schweitzer is insane. If you think that Hillary cannot get white working class voters to make up for the loss of Obama coalition voters offended by the truth then perhaps fictions must be maintained and truths not be spoken. But Hillary Clinton 2016 can get back to the winning FDR coalition and bring the armies of Obama unemployed along to the voting booths.
Reaching way back to 2004 numbers to suggest the Obama coalition is stable is too much of a stretch. Even the article cited to support such flimsy analysis raises questions:
“Even with demographics seeming to favor Democrats in the long term, it’s unclear whether Obama’s coalition will hold if blacks or younger voters become less motivated to vote or decide to switch parties.
Minority turnout tends to drop in midterm congressional elections, contributing to larger GOP victories as happened in 2010, when House control flipped to Republicans.
The economy and policy matter. [snip]
Whether the economy continues its slow recovery also will shape voter opinion, including among blacks, who have the highest rate of unemployment. [snip]
William Galston, a former policy adviser to President Bill Clinton, says that in previous elections where an enduring majority of voters came to support one party, the president winning re-election – William McKinley in 1900, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 – attracted a larger turnout over his original election and also received a higher vote total and a higher share of the popular vote. None of those occurred for Obama in 2012.
Only once in the last 60 years has a political party been successful in holding the presidency more than eight years – Republicans from 1980-1992.
“This doesn’t prove that Obama’s presidency won’t turn out to be the harbinger of a new political order,” Galston says. “But it does warrant some analytical caution.”
Early polling suggests that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton could come close in 2016 to generating the level of support among nonwhites as Obama did in November, when he won 80 percent of their vote. In a Fox News poll in February, 75 percent of nonwhites said they thought Clinton would make a good president, outpacing the 58 percent who said that about Vice President Joe Biden. [snip]
Jealous says the 2014 midterm election will be the real bellwether for black turnout.
That “bell” is going to sound rather tinny if 2010 election results and current polling is any guide to the future. As we wrote:
“Hillary Clinton can win by bringing back senior voters and the white working class voters that have dumped the Democratic Party they once gave allegiance to. This will enrage the DailyKooks and Obama apparatchiks. But it is the only way for Hillary Clinton to win.”
In 2014 Hillary Clinton 2016 better start thinking about tomorrow and where the puck will be:
“Much of it is out of her hands. Low job approval numbers for President Obama, should they persist, will make it difficult for any Democrat to win, even with the party’s seeming Electoral College edge and growing demographic advantages among minorities and the young. Just ask John McCain how President George W. Bush’s unpopularity affected his 2008 White House bid.”
We know the once shiny tin puck is beat up real bad these days. Those that once polished it now shun it.
The trendlines and the straws in the wind all indicate which way the the prevailing forces are going. What about ObamaCare and 2016? Where will the ObamaCare puck be? Megan McArdle warns that 2015 will not be a good year for ObamaCare and candidates running in 2016 are forewarned:
“The law is unpopular, not only with voters, but also apparently with the consumers who are supposed to buy insurance. The political forces that were supposed to guarantee its survival look weaker by the day. The Barack Obama administration is in emergency mode, pasting over political problems with administrative fixes of dubious legality, just to ensure the law’s bare survival — which is now their incredibly low bar for “success.”
Although the fixes may solve the short-term political problems, however, they destabilize the markets, which also need to work to ensure the law’s survival. The president is destroying his own law in order to save it. [snip]
Many of the commentators I’ve read seem to think that the worst is over, as far as unpopular surprises. In fact, the worst is yet to come. Here’s what’s ahead:
· 2014: Small-business policy cancellations. This year, the small-business market is going to get hit with the policy cancellations that roiled the individual market last year. Some firms will get better deals, but others will find that their coverage is being canceled in favor of more expensive policies that don’t cover as many of the doctors or procedures that they want. This is going to be a rolling problem throughout the year.
· Summer 2014: Insurers get a sizable chunk of money from the government to cover any excess losses. When the costs are published, this is going to be wildly unpopular: The administration has spent three years saying that Obamacare was the antidote to abuses by Big, Bad Insurance Companies, and suddenly it’s a mechanism to funnel taxpayer money to them?
· Fall 2014: New premiums are announced.
· 2014 and onward: Medicare reimbursement cuts eat into hospital margins, triggering a lot of lobbying and sad ads about how Beloved Local Hospital may have to close.
· Spring 2015: The Internal Revenue Service starts collecting individual mandate penalties: 1 percent of income in the first year. That’s going to be a nasty shock to folks who thought the penalty was just $95. I, like many other analysts, expect the administration to announce a temporary delay sometime after April 1, 2014.
· Spring 2015: The IRS demands that people whose income was higher than they projected pay back their excess subsidies. This could be thousands of dollars.
· Spring 2015: Cuts to Medicare Advantage, which the administration punted on in 2013, are scheduled to go into effect. This will reduce benefits currently enjoyed by millions of seniors, which is why they didn’t let them go into effect this year.
· Fall 2015: This is when expert Bob Laszewski says insurers will begin exiting the market if the exchange policies aren’t profitable.
Puck Obama and his ObaminationCare scam will break the back of any candidate who supports him and/or it. 2014 will be bad. 2015 will be worse. Hillary Clinton 2016 needs to say “the puck stops here.”
Those who want to destroy Hillary Clinton 2016 will seek to tie Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama in order to keep Barack Obama afloat in 2014. For Obama supporters it is still all about Obama. For Obama supporters Hillary Clinton is a sacrificial lamb on the alter of Obama worship.
Hillary Clinton should, as quickly as possible, tell Barack Obama, Obama strategists, and ObamaCare, “Puck You”.