MoonOnPluto is doing great work in the comments section keeping everyone informed on the polls and related infomation. Big Media is doing Praetorian Guard work to convince the American voter that Obama is on the upswing.
“I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.
For two reasons:
(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.
(2) Romney leads among independents.
Let’s take each point in turn. [snip]
Poll after poll, I generally see the same thing. Romney has an edge on the economy. That includes most of the state polls.
Moreover, this election looks to hinge on the economy, and little else. The recent Fox News poll broke the top issues into four: economic issues (like jobs); social issues (like abortion); national security issues (like terrorism); and fiscal issues (like taxes). To my mind, economic and fiscal issues are one and the same, meaning: 75 percent of respondents willing to pick a top issue picked the economy or fiscal issues.
I do not know of an election where the electorate was so singularly focused on one set of issues, and the person trusted less on them nevertheless won. [snip]
Romney’s lead among independents. This second point is related to the first, but gets down to my view of the long-term trajectory of American politics, which corresponds quite closely to Sean Trende’s book, The Lost Majority. [snip]
This has led to the rising power of the independent vote. And its effects are all around us, if we only care to look.”
We care to look. Jim Gefraghty, like MoonOnPluto is also looking at early voting numbers:
“On the Thursday before Election Day in 2008, 4,583 people voted early in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, which includes Cleveland.
This was a stronghold for the Obama campaign; on Election Day, Obama carried the county 69 percent to 30 percent for John McCain.
Yesterday 2,963 people voted.
Again, some of that may be because of people being preoccupied with cleaning up storm damage, etc. But overall, by this point in 2008, 39,110 Cuyahoga County residents had voted early. As of Thursday, 33,140 have — about a 15 percent drop. And note that the early voting was ahead of the 2008 pace until Saturday.
I’m told by an Ohio reader watching the numbers in Hamilton County (which includes Cincinnati) that they see a similar pattern in that corner of the state — early voting on pace until October 25, then a slowdown that has been consistent — about 1,500 early votes per day this week, instead of the 2,000 or so this county saw four years ago. This county — where Obama won, 52 percent to 47 percent, four years ago — is also 15 percent below last cycle’s total.
“Either they are running out of buses to transport the voters or they are running out of voters,” my Ohio reader concludes.”
Henry Olsen has more on Ohio:
“McDonald’s site has updated their Ohio early voting numbers, so I conducted a re-examination to see if the pattern I discovered still holds. It does. There are now 23 counties in which the percentage of the 2008/2012 early voting ratio equals or exceeds 80 percent. McCain carried 17 of them, and the six Obama carried are still those in the eastern, blue collar part of the state. Cincinnati exurban counties Brown and Warren now report their early votes equal 99 and 93 percent, respectively, of the 2008 early vote percentage.
Large, big margin Obama counties remain at the bottom of the early voting ratio. Summit (Akron), Lucas (Toledo), Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus) are all near the bottom of this analysis, with between 67 and 69 percent of the 2008 early vote percentage already cast in 2012.
Barack Obama is clearly winning the early vote in Ohio. But careful analysis of the actual numbers so far suggest very good news for Mitt Romney.
The Romney campaign claims the president is merely banking votes he would have received on Election Day anyway, so his early lead isn’t very important. They say their early voting strategy relies on targeting low-voting-propensity Romney supporters for early voting and leaving the others to turn out on Election Day. In other words, they claim Obama’s effort is merely harvesting votes while theirs is creating votes. [snip]
This approach makes sense, but it’s hard to prove it’s working without inside campaign information. I think I’ve found a way to do that, and my research shows the Romney effort might be paying off. [snip]
I hypothesized that if the Romney campaign’s effort is working, the share of the total 2008 early vote that has already been cast should be higher in strong Romney counties than in strong Obama counties. That’s because if the Romney effort works, total turnout in those counties should be up in 2012, the bulk of that coming from the low-voting-propensity supporters who the campaign is asking to cast early ballots.
Through last Friday, that hypothesis is clearly correct: [snip]
The numbers are particularly strong for Romney in the southeastern coal country on or near the Ohio River. From Scioto county in the south to Columbiana county in the north, early voting shares range from a low of 63.5% in Monroe to 82.7% in Columbiana. (Athens County, an Obama stronghold because of Ohio University, touches the Ohio River- its early voting share is only 57.4%). To compare, the early voting shares in the largest and strongest Obama counties (Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin, Summit, and Lorain) never top 61.0% (Cuyahoga).
Exceptionally strong numbers can also be found in Republican counties in the northwest in the Dayton, Lima, and Toledo media markets. Early voting shares there average in the high sixties, touching as high as 87.5% in Champaign County.
If anything, these numbers underestimate Romney’s strength in early voting because most of the counties not reporting early voting numbers are strongly Republican. [snip]
This data is already a few days old: Perhaps more recent updates will change the story. But going into last weekend, Romney’s ground game looks like it was hiking turnout among its supporters better than Obama’s, an edge that could prove crucial if the race there is really a tie, as Sunday’s respected Ohio News poll showed.”
The New York Times documents Mittmentum as Obama is still trying to get out his base vote while Romney heads to Pennsylvania and the crucial swing voters:
“First there was quiet. Then came the “super PACs.” Now the candidate is on his way.
In a striking last-minute shift, the Romney campaign has decided to invest its most precious resource — the candidate’s time — in a serious play to win Pennsylvania.
Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored in the race for the White House.
Over the last several days, with polls showing Mr. Obama’s edge in the state narrowing, Republicans have sprung into action and forced the Democrats to spend resources here that could have gone toward more competitive battleground states. [snip]
The super PACs helped create an opening that paved the way for the Romney campaign to start making its move. The campaign has already invested $1 million in television advertising across the state, and on Thursday it bolstered that effort even further with a new round of commercials that will ensure a heavy and continuous presence through Election Day.
This came as the Republican National Committee made one of its largest commitments of the race so far, dropping $2.5 million into the state. [snip]
Democrats are saying that the race is much closer than they would have guessed just a week ago.
But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.
If ever there were a place where a last-ditch torrent of money could move the needle, this is it. [snip]
But those counties, which are full of upper-middle-class women and Jewish voters, are precisely the places where Republicans believe their efforts are paying off most.
“The biggest drop-off for the president has been in these more suburban, upper-class areas,” said Jim Lee, the president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, a Republican firm. “The women there tend to be very moderate, pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights. And they don’t fear a Romney presidency like they would maybe a Rick Santorum presidency. I don’t think Obama has been able to convince them that Romney is a radical.”
“The official explanation for the inadequate security? This administration didn’t want to “offend the sensibilities” of the new radical Islamic regime which American and British arms had so recently helped install in Libya.
The official explanation for why Obama administration officials watched the attack unfold for seven hours, refusing repeated requests to send the air support and relief forces that sat less than two hours away in Italy? Silence.
An open discussion of these issues, of course, would lead to difficult questions about the wisdom of underwriting and celebrating the so-called Arab Spring revolts in the first place. While the removal of tyrants can be laudable, the results show a disturbing pattern of merely installing new tyrannies – theocracies of medieval mullahs who immediately start savaging the rights of women (including the basic right to education) and who are openly hostile to American interests.
When Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney promptly criticized the security failures in Benghazi, the White House and its lapdog media jumped all over him for another “gaffe,” for speaking out too promptly and too strongly. Prompt and strong action from the White House on Sept. 11 might have saved American lives, as well as America’s reputation as a nation not to be messed with. Weakness and dithering and flying to Las Vegas the next day for celebrity fund-raising parties are somehow better?“
Four more days. Don’t be busy worrying. Get busy calling friends and doing what you can to rescue America.