Update: Sean Trende agrees with what we wrote below on just about every point we made:
“Most analysts portrayed the decision as a smart move to shore up Obama’s flagging standing with Latino voters. [snip]
I think the decision will probably wind up a net negative for the president. [snip]
There is a trade-off here. Fifteen electoral votes could still be crucial in a close election. But here’s the rub: The analyses that focus only on the potential effect among Latino voters miss half of the equation: The potential effect among white voters. [snip]
This is important, because Obama has ongoing weaknesses with working-class white voters. So weak, in fact, that they threatened his presidential bid during the Democratic perfect storm of 2008. [snip]
The financial collapse is what changed this; in late September, McCain’s leads were six and 11 points, respectively. Without this shift, 2008 would have been a very close race; Obama might have lost, even in a year where everything else was going in his favor. [snip]
These voters are the critical voting bloc in several must-win states for the president, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Michigan.
Now, some may say that the DREAM Act polls well, and this is true. Remember, however, that the parties never campaign on the other side’s best frame of their policies, or even the most accurate frame. [snip]
In short, it’s not really clear what Obama’s tack on immigration really accomplishes, politically speaking. It probably will result in minimal gains among Latino voters, in states with only a few electoral votes. But what it costs him could easily offset those gains, and then some.”
As we write below, “everything Obama touches turns to sh*t”.
As to polling, we also wrote there might be a very short lived boost. Today a Bloomberg poll: 64% agree with new immigration policy. We can’t critique the Bloomberg poll because no demographic data is provided by the pollsters. But the unimpressive 64% support for the unconstitutional policy is not boosting Obama in Gallup, Rassmussen or DailyKooks polls.
Remember: “Everything Obama touches turns to sh*t.” Remember also, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
After Thursday’s latest widely panned snore-fest “pivot” to the economy Barack Obama, like a hoochie coochie dancer, unveiled yet another (major) distraction from the economy. Obama opponents immediately started worrying that this distraction matters. Really. For sure. “This is the game-changer” the pearl clutchers squeaked. “Obama outsmarted us” wept Republican/conservatives. “The Latino vote is lost to Obama” swooned the foolish. “Obama just won the election” moaned the weak and silly.
But we’ve been watching Barack Obama for a long time. We remember him twitching for a nicotine fix in the luxurious Four Seasons Hotel in Boston during the Democratic Convention in 2004. We remember applauding him in our seats during his 2004 speech in convention hall – but at the same time having a conversation about how out of touch, or downright stupid if not cleverly manipulative, he was with that nonsensical “no red America, no blue America, just the United States of America” crowd pleasing garbage.
That “no red America” nonsense was always nonsense. Yes, it temporarily made Obama look like a “uniter” to the always gullible. But that “unity” schtick did not work out so well when in office did it? Fact is there is a “red America” and a “blue America” and we are all part of the United States of America. It’s an unruly United States with major divisions on major issues – but it almost always is this way.
The one thing we most definitely know about Barack Obama is that he is a boob. When he touches gold it turns to sh*t.
But didn’t he win the nomination and the election and that turned out all right? Well he had to be dragged across the finish line for the nomination stealing delegates along the way and if it wasn’t for the economic meltdown in September 2008 John McCain would have maintained his weeks long lead and, outspent and out-machined, beaten Barack Obama in an election which just about any Democrat would have won.
But Obama did win the golden prize of the presidency and since then it has turned to sh*t. Now he is fighting for political life and forced to do whatever it takes to win. No Distraction Left Behind.
Be assured. What looks like a great moment and a masterstroke from Obama will soon turn to a muddy mush that will choke him.
First and most important: As with the gay marriage “evolution” Americans will see this constitutionally dubious illegal immigration/DREAM Act ploy as a political ploy. Obama’s gay marriage “evolution” was viewed by 67% of Americans as prompted by election year political pandering. That the gay marriage “evolution” was a personal not a political “evolution” with policy ramifications is not ignored by gay Americans.
Gay Americans also know that Obama is thus far refusing to make gay marriage a policy plank in the Dimocratic platform and Obama is also refusing to issue an anti-discrimination executive order long demanded by the contributors of the gay community. Further gay Americans know that Obama could have “evolved” earlier. According to reports from the White House Barack Obama had decided in January to “evolve” on gay marriage but postponed his announcement for political effect to the Bank of America Dimocratic convention in September. So much for doing what is right. Gay Americans are not stupid and they know Obama is in it for Obama not anybody else.
Second, and very important: Latinos are not stupid. Barack Obama long ago said he could not do what he has just done. Latinos are not stupid and know Obama is just playing them.
Latinos in everyday conversations and in Spanish language broadcasts (surprisingly the level of education does not matter and the same parliamentary language is used) almost always state that Obama had a filibuster-proof Senate and House majorities but did nothing on immigration reform – other than make promises that he would do so in 2009, 2010, 2011. Now it’s election season and Obama is in trouble so he decides to do what he said he could not constitutionally do.
Latinos are not stupid and they will correctly ask, “why now?” Why not before? They, and others, will also ask if this entire effort is constitutional. As more and more Obama schemes fall prey to the rigors of the Constitution of the United States and the Supreme Court, Latinos will realize that Obama is writing a check that cannot be cashed – no constitutional authority.
Latinos are not stupid. Latinos know this illegal immigration patch will soon fall off and that only legislation matters if they want a permanent solution. Senator Marco Rubio was reportedly working on an immigration reform proposal and the pearl clutchers are now saying that Obama has stolen his thunder. Is this for real?
Senator Marco Rubio is a Latino from the very important 29 electoral vote rich state of Florida. These facts plus his ability to speak excellent English and even better Spanish place Marco Rubio on the top five list for anyone looking at VP picks for Mitt Romney. Does this latest Obama distraction on illegal immigration assure Marco Rubio the VP nomination?
June will be the deciding month for Mitt Romney on Marco Rubio. A few days from now, on June 19, the Marco Rubio autobiography will be published. There will be an author’s book tour. On the same day an anti-Marco Rubio biography will be published. There will be an author’s book tour.
After the Rubio books are published and Marco Rubio is on his book tour Mitt Romney will get the facts required to determine if he wants Rubio on the ticket. Rubio will soon be a major focus of attention and Romney will assess whether Rubio can stand up to the national scrutiny.
If Rubio wilts in the vicious spotlight then Rubio will stay in the Senate. If Rubio does as well as many expect he will be a lock for the VP nod, right? Not necessarily. There is something else going on in June that will matter.
The current Mitt Romney Bus Tour will also determine whether Rubio gets the Vice Presidential nomination.
What does the Mitt Romney Bus Tour have to do with Marco Rubio? Consider this analysis of what it takes to win in 2012:
“The overriding fear of Team Obama is that the president’s support among white voters will collapse. The math is simple. If Romney gets 65 percent of the white vote (which will likely comprise — at least — 72 percent of the electorate) then he gets 48 percent of the total vote. From there, Romney need only get 20 percent of all non-white voters to win by a comfortable margin.”
Romney might actually only need 60% of the white vote and 20% of the minority vote to win:
“The Obama campaign is counting on repeating an unprecedented performance among non-white voters. If the Obama campaign succeeds, Romney will need to counter with a historic share of the white vote. Should non-white voters support Obama to the extent they did in 2008, Romney will need to compensate by winning 60 percent of the white vote while holding Obama to 38 percent.
In the modern political era, it has taken extraordinary circumstances for Democrats to do so poorly with whites. [snip] (That said, to the extent that congressional elections can be used as a proxy, the 2010 midterms augur better for Romney: In 2010, House Democrats only won 37 percent of the white vote.) [snip]
Of course, just because Romney is in uncharted territory doesn’t mean he can’t conquer it. Given the prevailing political and economic climate, Romney will certainly have the opportunity to assemble the requisite number of votes—especially since there is no guarantee that non-white voters will turnout and support Obama as they did in 2008. [snip]
There are still many unresolved questions that will be pivotal to the election. Will Obama’s young and diverse base turnout to the degree necessary to force Romney to make historic gains among whites? If Romney does need to win 60 percent of the white vote, who are the voters he will need to persuade?”
If you believe after all the circus failures of these past three years that Obama will get higher turnout than in 2008 among blacks and young people as well as gentry liberals then Obama has a fighting chance. But really. Does anyone think that there is more Mess-iah fever in 2012 than there was in 2008? Anyone?
White voters will comprise at least 72 percent of the electorate in 2012. More likely, with the carnival failure presidency of Barack Obama, the white vote will be much higher and minority turnout will be much lower. But let’s stick with the 72 percent white turnout number and assume Mitt Romney needs 65% of that 72%. Mitt Romney could not possibly get that much of the white vote could he?
In 2010 Obama Dimocrats got only 37% of the white vote. But what about now? What about Obama and Romney’s share of the white vote? Can Romney really expect upwards of 60% of the white vote? Realy???? Really???? Gallup from June 12, 2012:
“Whites make up about three-quarters of all U.S. registered voters, and are therefore the most important racial or ethnic group in any election, at least mathematically. Even if Obama were to regain his 2008 level of support among blacks and improve his support somewhat among Hispanics, he could still lose if his support among whites slips any further. By the same token, even a slight increase in whites’ support could secure his re-election. [snip]
Currently, 43% of white 18- to 29-year-olds say they plan to vote for Obama in the election, down nine points from the 52% backing him in 2008. By contrast, Obama has lost five points among whites aged 30 to 49 and six points each among the two older age groups.”
What does this have to do with Mitt Romney’s Bus Tour, Marco Rubio’s VP chances, and Obama’s Latino ploy? Look at where Mitt Romney is going on his Bus Tour. Romney started his six state bus tour on a farm in New Hampshire. The Romney “Every Town Counts” tour goes through “bitter” “clinging” small town America:
“The tour begins in New Hampshire and will hit the battlegrounds states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan. In addition to being key swing states in the fall, these states share another distinction: They were all won by Barack Obama in 2008.”
Mitt Romney’s bus tour is about whether or not his campaign should turn to the Great Lakes and get to that 60-65% of white voters. Romney can, if he so chooses, turn to the Great Lakes and states with big working class white populations such as Pennsylvania to get to his electoral vote goals. Two Michigan polls have Romney ahead there and perhaps Romney might decide that the 60-65% strategy will work best. In that case he can choose as his VP someone to specifically help him with white voters and in the Great Lakes’ states and Pennsylvania. Someone like Rob Portman or Paul Ryan.
If Romney decides on a Great Lakes strategy then it is adios Marco Rubio. But even if there is a Great Lakes strategy there is a case left for Marco Rubio as VP. Mitt Romney might decide that he can outflank Obama on all sides – in the Great Lakes and even on the illegal immigration issue. In either case, June will tell if Rubio is on the ticket after we all see how he performs on his book tour and we catch a glimpse of him discussing illegal immigration as well as leading the soon-to-come backlash.
The backlash to Obama’s illegal immigration ploy of Friday might scorch Obama and anyone seen as anything less than strongly anti-illegal immigration. The backlash is already starting.
Today the Washington Post wonders: What will hundreds of thousands of job permits do to the economy?:
“With potentially as many as 800,000 new workers flooding into the system, what happens to the millions of Americans who can’t find work now? The Washington Post wonders the same thing, and more:
President Obama has just opened a floodgate of opportunity for young illegal immigrants in the United States, but could it squeeze the aspirations of legal Americans in the process? …
Under the new policy, as many as 1.4 million undocumented immigrants under age 30 will be able to apply for the amnesty, allowing them to work and attend college legally. [snip]
Federal law already grants all undocumented immigrants the right to a public-school education and emergency hospital care.
The new policy could entail additional costs for administration and enforcement, however, and put pressure on state systems of higher education to meet growing demand for slots.”
This Obama illegal immigration ploy might be enough to get Mitt Romney over the 60-65% white vote goal. And remember what we wrote above that everything Obama touches turns to sh*t? What happens if 1.4-800,000 job seekers flood the employment lines? What happens to the unemployment rate and Obama’s chances of reelection? Unemployment rate up, Obama goes down.
Everything Obama touches turns to sh*t. How happy will poor blacks be to vote for Obama if this happens?:
“But Steven Camarota, a researcher with the nonprofit Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, said that the Obama administration was not taking into account the new measure’s probable impact on competition for jobs at the low end of the economic scale, where chronic unemployment is highest. Among Americans with less than a high school education, he said, the jobless rate is 13 percent.
“It doesn’t seem the administration is considering the cascading consequences,” Camarota said. “What does this mean for unemployed Americans who will be competing for jobs with a million-plus people who can now apply for work authorization? Is this really a good idea?”
Everything Obama touches turns to sh*t. Count on it. Whatever very short term publicity benefits, whatever upticks in polls Obama gets from his illegal immigration ploy, it’s going to turn to sh*t. Count on it. When the unemployment rate goes up, Obama’s illegal immigrants will be taking the blame.
Mitt Romney is playing the Obama ploy just right. Let Obama go on with his distractions. Let Mitt Romney focus on the economy. It’s the economy, stupid.