Update: Polls in the 9th district have closed in New York City. Polls in the Nevada 2nd district close at 10:00 ET. Sean Trende reports that in 2008 Anthony Weiner carried the Brooklyn portion of the district by 52% and the Queens portion by 65% for a total of 70 percent.
The district was represented in the past by 2×4 Schumer and by Geraldine Ferraro. According to the Post there are some not too hard to believe things being said:
“It’s really something. We have a lot of Democrats coming to us saying, ‘We hope Turner wins because if Obama doesn’t change his policies, we’re afraid we’re going to lose in 2012,’ ’’ McLaughlin told The Post.
Today’s election in Queens/Brooklyn is an eviction notice to Barack Obama to vacate the White House. There are two very important lessons that will emerge from today:
(1) The attempt by Barack Obama to revive his dead presidency with a fake jobs bill has failed. The fake jobs bill was always a fake. It was an attempt to fool worried Dimocrats that Obama has the cojones to fight, if not win. But Obama has already caved and it has been announced Obama will take whatever cold fish the Republicans slap him with smack on his face. Obama had to cave. No one is impressed by a Boob who can’t rally the troops or win an election in the deepest of blue areas.
(2) If the strong and corrupt Dimocratic machines in Queens/Brooklyn can’t bludgeon voters to support Obama/Weprin then no district, precinct, ward is safe for Obama Dimocrats. No one should think that Bob Turner, the Republican, is a sure win or even a close win in a district that has rejected Republicans since 1923. The political machine in the 9th district and in Queens is a powerful dynastic machine of Weprins, Staviskies, Vallones and Crowleys. Even a close election result will be a massive achievement for the NOBAMA Coalition.
“A lot of Democrats are mad at Barack Obama.
But voters here in Rep. Anthony Weiner’s old New York City district can actually do something about it Tuesday night — sending a shot from Queens Boulevard to the White House by rejecting the Democratic Party’s hand-picked successor. [snip]
But the only name in the race that matters outside the five boroughs is Obama, and an upset would be seen as proof that Obama’s agenda has been rejected and his re-election chances are weaker than ever.
What to watch for as the results come in:
How much will Obama drag down the Democrat? [snip]
To win, Turner aides estimate they’ll need around 30 percent of Democratic voters to break their way. [snip]
It’s not an impossible task. Siena Research Institute’s most recent poll found Turner picking up the support of 32 percent of Democrats.”
Obama is poison. Machine politics is the only thing that can save the election for Obama Dimocrats:
“Can the Democratic machine be enough? [snip]
But all of that might not matter on Tuesday, when the powerful Queens County Democratic Party machine — overseen by Rep. Joe Crowley — is planning to kick into high gear. By the time polls open, Weprin’s campaign estimates it will have contacted more than 200,000 voters. On Tuesday, an estimated 1,000 volunteers and get-out-the-vote workers will be knocking on doors, handing out literature outside subway stations and bus stops and offering senior citizens rides to the polls.
The machine will benefit from the helping hand of the Working Families Party, a labor-backed organization regarded for its professional turnout efforts. Few expect the Queens County Republican Party — for years consumed by internal fighting — to be able to seriously compete.
“We’re going to win on the ground, we’re going to beat them on the ground,” New York City Councilman Mark Weprin, the candidate’s brother, told POLITICO. “It will make a huge difference.”
Bill O’Reilly, a Turner strategist and veteran of New York City campaigns, conceded that Republicans can’t match the Democratic ground game. “Not a chance,” he said.”
The odds of a NOBAMA Coalition victory tonight is ordinarily impossible. To the rescue comes Obama with all his booberies and lies at full mast.
The Associated Press, also for once accurate, assessed Obama’s “pass the bill” publicity stunt from last week:
“President Barack Obama’s promise Thursday that everything in his jobs plan will be paid for rests on highly iffy propositions.
It will only be paid for if a committee he can’t control does his bidding, if Congress puts that into law and if leaders in the future – the ones who will feel the fiscal pinch of his proposals – don’t roll it back. [snip]
A look at some of Obama’s claims and how they compare with the facts:
OBAMA: “Everything in this bill will be paid for. Everything.”
THE FACTS: [snip]
Essentially, the jobs plan is an IOU from a president and lawmakers who may not even be in office down the road when the bills come due. Today’s Congress cannot bind a later one for future spending. A future Congress could simply reverse it. [snip]
OBAMA: “Everything in here is the kind of proposal that’s been supported by both Democrats and Republicans, including many who sit here tonight.”
THE FACTS: Obama’s proposed cut in the Social Security payroll tax does seem likely to garner significant GOP support. But Obama proposes paying for the plan in part with tax increases that have already generated stiff Republican opposition.[snip]
OBAMA: “It will not add to the deficit.”
THE FACTS: It’s hard to see how the program would not raise the deficit over the next year or two because most of the envisioned spending cuts and tax increases are designed to come later rather than now, when they could jeopardize the fragile recovery. Deficits are calculated for individual years. The accumulation of years of deficit spending has produced a national debt headed toward $15 trillion. [snip]
OBAMA: “The American Jobs Act answers the urgent need to create jobs right away.”
THE FACTS: Not all of the president’s major proposals are likely to yield quick job growth if adopted.”
A series of lies from the albatross in the 9th district election. A liar. A weak liar. Early today David Axelrod declared there would be no compromise and that the entire “pass the bill” had to pass. Later in the day, as we noted earlier, the message was ‘we’ll take anything.’ Comedians are in clover. The laughs aimed at Obama boobery are a nightly event.
Add to mix of lies and boobery stark facts such as the poverty rate is at a 15 year high, consumer confidence is in the toilet, and business confidence is also flushing down the drain. Add the Solyndra ripoff of hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars by Obama cronies to this vile soup and wonder no more why tonight’s election results are a potential Die Day.
The White House flacks already spin the potential defeats tonight as a problem not associated with poisonous Obama.
But Obama won the 9th district in 2008 by 11 percentage points and now his approval rating there is at 33 percent. As the National Journal states: “This New York contest would seem to have implications beyond Brooklyn and Queens.”
There is also an election today in Nevada where Obama Dimocrats once had Hope:
“Democrats are facing the very real possibility that a pair of special elections on Tuesday will shake the foundations of the 2012 political landscape. The party is at serious risk of losing a House race in New York City that few thought would be close, and campaign officials are already close to writing off a Nevada House race they had once hoped to contest.
If Republicans win both contests, it would raise fresh concerns about President Obama’s drag on down-ballot Democrats and the party’s ability to keep its Senate majority. The losses would also raise questions about whether the party can gain the 24 seats it needs to regain the House.”
“The Democrats will look like dummies and the DCCC will get a black eye” if Weprin loses, said New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “It’s a precursor to more trouble in conservative Democratic districts throughout the country, and in the Senate and for the president.” [snip]
Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner’s shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama’s favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.
Republicans are eager to link Obama to the district race. “It really will be a referendum on President Obama’s performance,” said New York GOP Chairman Edward Cox. “This will be a rejection of his policies that have stifled the district. Maybe [Democrats] can save this situation by funneling in hundreds of thousands of money in vicious ads—maybe that will work in this Democratic district. But they are already embarrassed by the fact that they’ve had to do this in this district.”
In Nevada it’s the same Obama as poison:
“In the Silver State, the situation isn’t as ominous, but Democrats have all but written off contesting a Republican-leaning seat in rural Nevada that once seemed squarely in play weeks ago.”
Attacks against the Republican Amodei were easily countered. “He noted that Marshall supported Obama’s health care overhaul law, which contained Medicare cuts as well.”
Hope is lost in Nevada for Obama Dimocrats:
“Early voting in the district, along with few national Democratic reinforcements for Marshall, strongly suggests that Amodei is going to win comfortably. The race’s results also have worrisome implications for Democrats in the state’s closely watched Senate race between Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley and Republican Sen. Dean Heller—close to a must-win race if Democrats entertain hopes of keeping their four-seat Senate majority.”
The reason for the loss in Nevada is easy to spot: Obama is poison in Nevada.
Obama is poison in New York City. Tonight we find out how potent the poison is.