During the past few months we have slowly been working our way to writing several “painful discussion” articles focused on the census data which have been released today. Just about everyone wants to avoid the implications of what the census data tell us.
Chief liar or fool, take your pick, Robert Gibbs:
“President Barack Obama’s spokesman says he doesn’t expect the results of the new census to have a “huge practical impact” on national politics.”
Gibbs is either a liar or a fool because the census, a count of the population taken every decade, will not only describe the demographic face of the United States it will also be used to reapportion seats to the House of Representatives. But it is more than that.
The census will determine the practical day-to-day tactics and long-term strategies of political parties, political organizations, Big Media and just about every business that hopes to succeed or at least survive.
Today’s big news from the census report is which states gain House seats and which states lose House seats:
SOUTH CAROLINA +1
NEW JERSEY -1
NEW YORK -2
A business publication has the obvious analysis:
“First of all, there was a big shift in Congressional states from “blue” to “red” states. Texas is the huge winner, picking up 4 seats. NY and Pennsylvania both lost seats. California failed to gain any seats for the first time. [snip]
What’s also key is that the GOP had a monster 2010 election in state legislatures, where the actual of redrawing of districts will occur. So put it together, and you’re talking about gains that will last at least a decade felt across all levels of politics.“
None of this will surprise our regular readers. In November of 2009 we discussed the Democratic dreams and schemes of the “10 year plan” which has been destroyed because of Barack Obama. The “10 year plan” is more than dead – it has been turned on its head and now the advantage, the very strong advantage, is in Republican hands.
We utilized data compiled by Michael Barone to explain how devastating the 2010 elections have been to Obama Dimocrats in the reapportionment battle. We utilized data from Steve Lombardo at the Huff n’ Puff site to further nail down the Obama Dimocratic coffin.
The big headline news from today’s census release are in many ways the least interesting. The big headline news is the continued growth of Latinos in the southwest and the consequent continued growth in electoral power of that region:
“New U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday will expand congressional delegations in the Southwestern region of the nation, reflecting a widespread population migration over the past decade that further erodes the political might of the Northeast and Midwest.
Fueled by an explosion in its Hispanic population, Texas will add four new House seats — a larger gain than for any other state — broadening its delegation to 36 members in the House of Representatives. Arizona, Nevada and Utah — all of which have also seen significant population increases over the past decade — will gain one seat apiece.
A few Southern states also will gain seats. Florida picked up two seats and will expand to 27 districts, while Georgia and South Carolina picked up one seat each.
At the same time, the data showed population diminishing in Northeastern states — several of which will shed seats in apportionment. New York and Ohio will both lose two House seats, while Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Michigan will lose one seat apiece.
A handful of Midwestern states will also lose seats: Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and Michigan will all shed one district apiece.”
This is all good news for Republicans:
“Republican-leaning states will pick up a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nation’s population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.
The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, a slower pace than the 13.2 percent population increase from 1990 to 2000.
Only one state, Michigan, lost population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.
The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats at the Rust Belt’s expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.
That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party. [snip]
Florida will now have as many U.S. House members as New York: 27. California will still have 53 seats, and Texas will climb to 36.
In 2008, President Barack Obama lost in Texas and most of the other states that are gaining House seats. He carried most of the states that are losing House seats, including Ohio and Pennsylvania. Each House district represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, meaning the political map for the 2012 election will tilt somewhat more Republican.[snip]
Starting early next year, most state governments will use detailed, computer-generated data on voting patterns to carve neighborhoods in or out of newly drawn House districts, tilting them more to the left or right. Sometimes politicians play it safe, quietly agreeing to protect Republican and Democratic incumbents alike. But sometimes the party in control will gamble and aggressively try to reconfigure the map to dump as many opponents as possible.”
Digest that last sentence Robert Gibbs and Obama Hopium addled. Eat this too:
“Last month’s elections put Republicans in full control of numerous state governments, giving the GOP an overall edge in the redistricting process. State governments’ ability to gerrymander districts is somewhat limited, however, by court rulings that require roughly equal populations, among other things. The 1965 Voting Rights Act protects ethnic minorities in several states that are subject to U.S. Justice Department oversight.”
Only the truly stupid, unable to look around the corner, will think that last sentence is reassuring to Obama Dimocrats. Only the truly stupid, unable to look around the corner, will think that last sentence is anything but good news for Republicans. The irony is that in this battlefield of racial politics, the Republicans and the black Dimocratic leadership are now allies.
In Mistake In ’08, Part VI – The Republicans React we charted an easy path, via Marco Rubio and other powerful newly elected Republican Latinos, into Latino voters’ hearts.
But what is this “Rise of the Black Party” and why is that a problem? In June’s The Bitter Taste Of Words we quoted from serpentine Matt Bai:
“… redistricting based on the 1990 Census, after which Democrats were assured safe, urban seats in minority districts while whiter, more conservative districts were created in the suburbs.”
What this means is that Republicans, under guise of living up to the spirit of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, will redistrict blacks into majority minority districts. Black Obama Dimocratic leaders will love this because it will increase their power within the Dimocratic Party.
Republicans will enjoy creating majority minority districts because, while they herd Black Americans into congressional ghettos, the bottom line will be that the mathematics of the situation also mean many more Republican leaning districts will be created than majority minority districts. Added benefits include: black Dimocratic leaders for their own benefit will assist Republicans to create these districts; the inevitable shouts from these black leaders of “racism” if Dimocratic Party officials wise to the danger attempt to thwart this racial gerrymandering; and most important the increased marginalization of the Dimocratic Party as “the Black Party” as black Dimocratic leaders cement their hold.
Barack Obama’s coalition of “situation comedy” demographics will logically lead to a gated community located in the cities of coastal states. As we will explain in these last days of 2010, only those who idiotically think that blacks or young people have benefited from Obama in the White House, only those who want to be big fish in a little pond, will be happy with the rise of the Black Party and the congressional segregation to come.