Odd how things turn out sometimes. Hillary Clinton smashed 18 million cracks into the glass ceiling during the primary elections of 2008. John McCain, in some large part as a nod to Hillary voters, chose Sarah Palin for his running mate. Tonight, Sarah Palin is one of, if not the most valued endorsement sought by Republicans. In a sense Obama’s sexism and misogyny led to Sarah Palin.
Sister Sarah helped create a stunning upset in the Alaska primaries but a home state win some argue ‘ain’t no great shakes’. However, tonight Palin’s endorsement continues to move candidates to the fore in state after state and her robocalls and support are like IEDs for insurgent campaigns. In Delaware, Palin’s endorsement has moved Christine O’Donnell into the lead and triggered a debate over the value of a sure thing win versus a candidate you actually like.
The debate the Republicans and conservatives are having in Delaware is an important one. Do you vote for a candidate who will repeatedly let you down once in office because that candidate can actually win the election? Or, do you decide to vote for the candidate you actually like even if there is a greater possibility you will lose the election? That victory in Delaware might be the seat that triggers a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate heightens the gamble. Is this stupid, or principled, suicidal or wise? Republicans will let us know what they think in Delaware tonight.
Hawaii will finish the primary season when it votes this Saturday. Tonight seven states and the District of Columbia will vote. Politico has a run-down on tonight’s primaries:
“The Delaware GOP primary for the Senate seat is not only the most fascinating race of the day but probably the most consequential, as well. The front-runner is Rep. Mike Castle, who also has held office almost continously since the late 1960s. His foe is tea-party-backed Christine O’Donnell, who is riding a surge of momentum in the aftermath of Joe Miller’s upset primary victory over Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
It hardly needs to be said that Delaware is not Alaska or Utah, two states so Republican that even the little-known tea party upstarts who knocked off incumbent senators are well-positioned to win in November. So if the moderate Castle is knocked off Tuesday, all bets are off on this race on Election Day. If the baggage-laden O’Donnell — a perennial candidate who is despised by the state GOP establishment — emerges as the nominee, suddenly this open seat flips from a likely GOP pickup to a likely Democratic hold.”
Delaware is only one of seven.
“Before the epic grudge match between former GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich and Gov. Martin O’Malley, the Democrat who ousted him in 2006, can officially begin, Ehrlich must first dispatch Brian Murphy, a little-known business investor offering a vigorous challenge from his right.
There’s been no public polling in the primary, since it’s widely assumed that Ehrlich will get the nod. But Murphy managed to win Sarah Palin’s endorsement and has some tea party support, so he can’t be dismissed entirely. [snip]
Massachusetts Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch has never had to break a sweat since first winning his House seat nearly a decade ago. But his vote against his party’s health care reform plan has proved costly in a district where the only election that really matters is the Democratic primary. [snip]
With the help of a recent Manchester Union Leader endorsement and tea party support, Lamontagne has closed hard on former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s favored candidate. Does he have enough momentum? Many insiders think Ayotte can hold on against a field that also includes several viable self-funders, but Lamontagne’s 1996 primary win proves he is capable of pulling off an upset.
In 2006, Democrats captured both of New Hampshire’s GOP-held House seats, confirming the state’s sharp turn away from the Republican Party. Now, however, the GOP has an opportunity to claw back those districts and stanch the bleeding.
Much depends on whom the party nominates in the open 2nd District, where former Rep. Charles Bass is seeking the seat he lost in 2006, and in the Manchester-based 1st, where a handful of Republicans are seeking the nomination against vulnerable Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.”
There is much noise about the Charlie Rangel race in New York. We suspect Rangel will win easily. However there is a measure of the anti-incumbency mood of the electorate in a very weird inverted issues way in the 14th District:
“Congressional challengers don’t typically embrace Wall Street values or empathize with aggrieved financiers. But in the Democratic primary in the Manhattan-based 14th District, that’s challenger Reshma Saujani’s strategy against veteran Rep. Carolyn Maloney.
If that approach is going to work anywhere, it would be in this Upper East Side district, where there is simmering resentment over Democratic efforts to crack down on the financial services industries — and Maloney’s support for new restrictions. But while Saujani is remarkably cash-flush for a primary challenger, Maloney has the advantages of incumbency and won’t be easy to oust.”
And also in New York there is the return of the first electoral test of the Tea Party:
“Back in November 2009, during a House special election that marked the emergence of tea party activism as a political force this cycle, Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman forced Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava out of the race, creating the opening for now-Rep. Bill Owens to add a seat to the Democrats’ majority.
Hoffman is back for a second run, seeking the Republican nomination in addition to the Conservative Party line that he already possesses in November. But he faces a tough, well-funded challenger in Matt Doheny, who has his own third-party nomination — the Independence Party nomination. All of it is good news for freshman Democratic Rep. Bill Owens.
The 23rd District isn’t the only place to watch GOP self-immolation: The Long Island-based 1st District is another one to keep an eye on.”
In Washington D.C., Mayor Fenty is in trouble and his troubles kinda sorta reminds us of another person in D.C.:
“It’s one of the oldest stories in politics: a young man in a hurry wins high office, shakes up the status quo, projects arrogance and alienates both allies and powerful interest groups. In District of Columbia Mayor Adrian Fenty’s case, his drama is unfolding in the shadow of the Capitol.
The 39-year-old mayor — who won every precinct in the city in 2006 — now finds himself trailing in the polls and in serious danger of losing his job to City Council Chairman Vincent Gray.”
There are MTV “Real World” cast member running in Wisconsin (Sean Duffy 7th District) and in New York (Powell in Brooklyn’s 10th District). Duffy is a Republican and Powell is a Democrat which goes to prove something about celebrity and politics which we leave up to our readers to decide. Not to be left out of the celebrity list is Ohio where Surya Yalamanchili, formerly of 2007’s “The Apprentice” is a Democratic nominee in Ohio’s 2nd District.
The ultimate irony is that tonight might not matter as much as anyone thinks. After all, “2010 is gone. It’s going to be a total wipeout” in November.