Update: Confusion reigns among Obama supporters. At FireDogLake and the DailyKooks they are purposefully confusing the Democratic “base” with the Obama coalition. We wrote about the “Situation Comedy” demographics of the Obama coalition which excluded old people as a useless bunch.
FireDogLake anticipates defeat in Virginia and trys to exculpate the 2008 support for Obama by mixing “base” wth “Obama coalition. Memo to the Hopium addled – you guys were the ones who laughed at old people and talked about that “new” coalition of young, black, and liberal rich which would lead to the thousand year Obama reich. FireDogLake:
Some have compared this year’s election to the 1993 election that served as a preview for what would happen in 1994. I actually think things are a little bit worse. In the 1992 election, senior citizens were one of the best voting blocks for Bill Clinton–and of course seniors have excellent voting patterns and represent a larger share of the electorate in low turnout mid-term elections. That helped save a number of Democrats in 1994–like Lawton Chiles in the Florida Governor’s race. But in 2008, seniors were one of the groups with which Barack Obama struggled. The strongest groups for Democrats in 2008 were voters under the age of 30 and minority voters. Also known as the two groups whose participation historically falls in midterm elections. In Virginia this year, one poll showed the percentage of the likely electorate under the age of 30 falling 70% from 2008–and the African American share of the vote falling 39% from 2008! That’s why virtually every poll has shown today’s likely electorate as having voted for John McCain by double digits over Barack Obama in Virginia last year–despite Virginia having voted almost exactly the reverse.
Big Media is working overtime again to protect Obama. Tonight, as election results are tallied, Big Media will pump out justifications to absolve Barack Obama and his situation comedy coalition of “younger,” “urban” (meaning “black”), and wealthy suburban liberal whites.
Dana Milbank started to circle the wagons with the argument that tonight’s results are or are not a referendum on Obama depending on whether the observer is an Obama fan. Milbank protects Obama by making a negative assessment of Obama by the voters as a question of bias on the part of the analyst.
Milbank is wrong. There are a lot of data and facts which tonight’s election results will provide that allow us to analyze the strength of the Obama situation comedy coalition versus the Hillary Clinton/FDR coalition.
Big Media is also attempting to protect Obama by distorting the New York 23rd district race as a disaster for Republicans because conservatives successfully eliminated a liberal Republican (who has endorsed the Democrat!) as a contender. We argued that conservatives are teaching liberals how to act when faced with candidates they don’t like force-fed to them (like Obama in 2008) by the party hierarchy.
Instead of praise for conservatives who acted against ideological opponents gaining the Republican ballot line, Big Media labels this as somehow dangerous for Republicans. But attacks by Democrats against Democrats like Senator Joe Lieberman and Democratic “Blue Dogs” are fluffed as righteous – Republicans angry with apostate liberal Republicans are viewed as somehow rabid and dangerous. The anger multiples on Big Boy Blogs because conservatives are successful (and targeting an additional dozen races) and active while Big Boy Blogs failed to replace Lieberman with Ned Lamont and instead Lieberman and the Blue Dogs grow stronger.
Dimocrats and Obama also continue to stab Gay-Americans in the back, particularly in Maine, but Big Media has been silent because Gay-Americans are not part of the Obama coalition. Foolish Gay-Americans gave money to gay-basher Barack Obama and ignored the marriage fight in Maine. Foolish Gay-Americans will continue to support gay-basher Barack Obama and his OAFs (Organizing for America which used to be Obama for America which we call OAF) even as Obama and his OAFs drain Maine to bolster New Jersey.
That’s right – Obama and his OAFs are asking Maine activists to leave Maine today and the Maine marriage fight in order to rescue John Corzine in New Jersey. Gay-Americans who continue to support gay-basher Obama, or those who (Hillary hater John Aravosis) supported Obama deserve what they get.
“Drain Maine” says Obama, those Gays don’t matter. Old people are not part of the Obama coalition (the elderly are part of the Hillary/FDR coalition) either even though he needed those old people votes in 2008. White people, unless they are young or liberals or financially well-off are not part of the Obama situation comedy coalition either. Those “bitter” and “clingy” white people are showing more sense than (black and white) Gay-Americans because the “bitter” and the “clingy” are at least realizing they are not wanted in the Obama coalition and Obama’s sweet words were just a ruse to get their votes away from Hillary.
In Iowa “bitter” and “clingy” white people are regretting their Obama flim-flammed votes:
Pauline McAreavy voted for President Obama. From the moment she first saw him two years ago, she was smitten by his speeches and sold on his promise of change. She switched parties to support him in the Iowa caucuses, donated money and opened her home to a pair of young campaign workers.
But by the time she received a fund-raising letter last month from the Democratic National Committee, a sense of disappointment had set in. She returned the solicitation with a handwritten note, saying: “Until I see some progress and he lives up to his promises in Iowa, we will not give one penny.”
“I’m afraid I wasn’t realistic,” Ms. McAreavy, 76, a retired school nurse, said on a recent morning on the deck of her home here in east-central Iowa.
“I really thought there would be immediate change,” she said. “Sometimes the Republicans are just as bad as Democrats. But it’s politics as usual, and that’s what I voted against.”
There’s no fool, like an old fool. There were a lot of fools in Iowa 2008.
Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president’s standing has leveled out, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics.
For Democrats, the immediate peril of failing to hang on to some of these swing voters could play out Tuesday in the governor’s race in Virginia, a state Mr. Obama wrested away from Republicans last year, but where the Democratic candidate for governor has struggled to reprise Mr. Obama’s enthusiastic coalition.
In Iowa, Ms. McAreavy fears that the president’s health care plan will shortchange her Medicare benefits and mean infrequent mammogram examinations. She worries that his decision on Afghanistan will mean that her son, a member of the Iowa National Guard, will return to the battlefield. And she believes too many of Mr. Obama’s actions are rooted in Democratic politics.
“All my Republican friends — and independents — are sitting back saying, ‘Oh, what did we do?” Ms. McAreavy said. “I’m not to that point yet, but a lot of people are.”
There’s no fool, like an old fool – especially when up against a master flim-flam man from Chicago. They were never part of the Obama coalition, he just needed their votes to get him by and now they are “under the bus” and realize there is something rather heavy squishing them.
But an erosion of support from independents and disapproval from Republicans suggests that the coalition Mr. Obama built to win the White House is frayed. [snip]
A social studies teacher who saw Mr. Obama on his maiden trip here wonders whether momentum from the election is gone forever. A retired electrical engineer who became a Democrat to support Mr. Obama believes the president too often blames others for his troubles. And a teacher who voted for Mr. Obama because she was fed up with George W. Bush does not trust this administration any more than the previous one.
Time after time in 2007, we wrote that Obama blamed everyone for everything, but himself. It was always “blame the staff” time for Obama. And we were the first to say Obama Is The Third Bush Term. Now, old fools in Iowa, bamboozled by their grandchildren or by Obama himself, realize they indeed are fools.
As a candidate, Mr. Obama soared, several people said in interviews, but as a president, he often has come across as cautious, tentative and prone to blame his troubles on others.
“I think he was more presidential when he was running for office than he is now,” said Paul Johnson, 58, a student legal services lawyer at Iowa State University. “He seems more subdued, which is probably a result of having to actually deal with the issues on his plate as opposed to just rallying the troops to vote for him.”
Mr. Johnson and his wife, Kathy, are loyal Democrats, but Mr. Obama was not their first, second or third choice during the Iowa caucuses that opened the party’s primary on Jan. 3, 2008. At the time, they favored, in order, John Edwards, Joseph R. Biden or Hillary Rodham Clinton. When Mr. Obama won the nomination, however, they eagerly supported him, and now they say they believe he is doing well, but often wonder if he is assertive enough.
“It’s overdue for him to actually take charge here,” said Ms. Johnson, 57, a social worker in the town of Nevada. [snip]
“Given all the situations that he’s dealing with — the economy and the war — I think it’s going to take some work,” said Ms. Schmieder, who had never been involved in politics, but said she was drawn to Mr. Obama by his books.
As Mr. Obama approaches the anniversary of his election, the sense of possibility and the dash of romance that moved many voters are no longer apparent. The challenges of governing have eaten away at the optimism. The pace of government intervention also has jarred many voters.
John Sager, a retired electrical engineer, said he was so impressed by Mr. Obama at the United Auto Workers hall in Marshalltown last year that he allowed his name to be promoted on a list of Republicans supporting Mr. Obama before the Iowa caucuses.
“He gave a fairly decent presentation, but that’s what it turned out to be — a presentation,” said Mr. Sager, 77. “I don’t think he should keep hiding behind the fact that he inherited all these problems.”
Kathy Shaffer, 60, a retired school teacher, did not tell her husband, Larry, a staunch Republican, that she had she voted for Mr. Obama until recently. She said she had been frustrated by the Iraq war, fed up with the Bush administration and eager for a change.
Now, she said she regretted her vote, largely because she disapproved of how the government had intervened to help failing financial institutions and car companies. She also fears that Mr. Obama will send more troops to Afghanistan.
“I want to be a Republican domestically and probably a Democrat on foreign policy — I’m in a lose-lose situation,” Ms. Shaffer said.
Imagine, voting for a candidate because you like his books! There is no fool like an old fool.
The problem for Obama is that old fools can learn new tricks. Old fools can learn from mistakes.
We suspect, today, a lot of old fools are about to start fixing their mistake in 2008.
Part III tomorrow. We’ll discuss the real goal in election 2010 (hint: census) and the mistake in 2008 that rejected the winning and growing Hillary FDR coalition.
Tune in tonight for election results.