Don’t Believe The Obama Hype

In the weeks leading up to the first primary of 2008 the Dimocratic leadership and the Obama campaign tried to force Hillary out of the race. The people of New Hampshire however gave the first in the nation primary victory to Hillary.

The Obama campaign kept up the drumbeat about “the Math” and how the race was over very early on. But the race was not over. In the end the Dimocratic “Rules” Committee had to drag Obama across the finish line. The Dimocratic leadership intervened and awarded Obama delegates in an election in which he was not even on the ballot – going so far as to strip Hillary of some of her duly elected delegates and bailing out Obama. The Obama Bailout by Party leaders was applauded by Big Media in the same way we have seen Big Media applaud the Wall Street Bailout Bill.

As we wrote, the Wall Street Bailout Bill was a lot of razzle-dazzle that would not solve the nation’s economic crisis nor even come close to addressing the problem. In the same way, we opposed the razzle-dazzle Obama Bailout by the Rules Committee and the Dimocratic leadership.

The Obama campaign and the Chicago thugs did succeed in grabbing the nomination with bluster and aid from Big Media. Now the Obama campaign is trying the old razzle-dazzle again. This time it is to convince the American people that this election is over and those opposed to Obama should just stay home on election day in NOvember.

Obama incense burners shouted, after McCain took the lead in national and state polls immediately following the successful Republican National Convention, that the polls did not matter because Obama had a sure victory in the ground game. The argument was and is that Obama has so much support that all the campaign has to do is get all that massive support to the polls on election day. But once again, that is all Obama Bluster.

Forget the anecdotes and the Obama Chicago hype, let’s look at the ACTUIAL numbers:

This year, Ohio allowed any citizen not registered to vote to show up, register, and vote on the same day in Sept. 30 to Oct. 6 window. The AP was writing back in August, “If Obama’s campaign were able to tap into college campuses with one-stop voting, it would add thousands of votes to his tally in a state where, in 2004, John Kerry lost to President Bush by only about 118,000 votes, putting Bush over the top in the electoral count.”

Those who were already registered were also permitted to use the early voting window. The expectation was that lots of Ohioans would partake of the opportunity. The Washington Post reported, “The Ohio secretary of state’s office estimates that a quarter of all voters will cast their ballots as absentees or at an early voting location before Election Day, more than twice as many as did so four years ago.” (Obviously, absentee would make up a large chunk of that, but one would figure the early voting window would attact its fair share.)

And the anecdotal evidence was that the Obama campaign was readying the Mother of All Turnout Operations in this state. The Washington Post poll of Ohioans, 40 percent said they had been contacted by the Obama campaign either in person or by phone, an astonishingly high percentage. Bruce Springsteen was doing a concert at Ohio State University to get people out for early voting. Cuba Gooding Jr. was deployed to events in Dayton, Hamilton, Lima and Toledo.

The Obama hype was that before the end of the day on October 6 there would be a groundswell of incense burners overpowering the election sites. The actual result? The actual result with Bruce and Cuba holding events while buses waited to transport the Obama armies to vote immediately? 28, 466 votes. 28,466 votes out of 8.2 million registered voters and any new voters that could be shanghaied into registering and then voting.

The actual number of people, we presume citizens, who registered and voted on the same day (with Bruce and Cuba bussed in for that sole purpose) in the entire state of Ohio was 5,223.

Don’t believe the Obama hype – Obama can’t be trusted by friend nor foe.

Another aspect of this year’s voting which was almost entirely consistent was that Hillary Clinton received the votes of voters who decided on election day and Hillary Clinton received most of the votes of voters who said they were “undecided”. Frankly we think that “undecided” is really a NObama vote – these are people who do not want to be tagged as “racists” so they are keeping their mouths shut.

What the Obama campaign has managed to do is force Americans to say they are undecided because they do not want to be pegged as racists – the Obama campaign will then turn this around when they lose and say that these undecided voters are really racists – so once again the Obama campaign will play the race card when voters vote NObama. “Undecided” = NObama.

The New York Times today published an article today alleging that Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering to vote. Without discussing ACORN nor other questionable voter registration activities the New York Times backhandedly questions the notion of a massive influx of Obama voters.

Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party’s supporters disproportionately. The screening or trimming of voter registration lists in the six states — Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers.

The Times adds:

Although much attention this year has been focused on the millions of new voters being added to the rolls by the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama, there has been far less notice given to the number of voters being dropped from those same rolls.

Voters move and die in fairly large numbers. When the Obama hype machine states they have registered a zillion voters in a state what they fail to mention is how many Democratic voters are no longer on the voter rolls due to death or relocation. So every time the Obama hype is heard that they have registered a zillion voters in some state, shrewd analysts should take note of what the New York Times discovered: for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows.

The Obama hype should be rejected and what we do know is that we might not know as much as we think we know or should know. Confused? In the year ending Sept. 30, election officials in Nevada, for example, used the Social Security database more than 740,000 times to check voter files or registration applications and found more than 715,000 nonmatches, federal records show. In Georgia the nonmatches were 260,000.

All the Obama hype of massive amounts of voters in NOvember? In three states — Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan — the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period. In must win for Obama Colorado which has also had a significant population increase since the last presidential election, but the state has recorded a net loss of nearly 100,000 voters from its rolls since 2004.

How many new or previous voters in NOvember? We still do not know.

Usually, when state election officials check a registration and find that it does not match a database entry, they alert local election officials to contact the voter and request further proof of identification. If that is not possible, most states flag the voter file and require identification from the voter at the polling place.

In Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and South Dakota, the problem is more serious because voters are not added to the rolls until the states remove the flags. [snip]

In Georgia, the Justice Department is considering legal action against the state because officials in Cobb and Cherokee Counties sent letters to hundreds of voters stating that their voter registrations had been flagged and telling them they cannot vote until they clear up the discrepancy.

On Monday, the Ohio Republican Party filed a motion in federal court against the secretary of state to get the list of all names that have been flagged by the Social Security database since Jan. 1. The motion seeks to require that any voter who does not clear up a discrepancy be required to vote using a provisional ballot.

Republicans said in the motion that it is central to American democracy that nonqualified voters be forbidden from voting. [snip]

Considering that in the past year the state received nearly 290,000 nonmatches, such a plan could have significant impact at the polls.

That eligible voters have the right to vote and should be allowed and encouraged to vote is not the issue we are discussing. That there might be detectable fraud in voter registrations is not the issue we are discussing. The issue is that a lot of these issues such as who is voting in NOvember have yet to be resolved and that NOone should believe the Obama hype.

Michael Barone questions the Obama hype too.

The Obama campaign has spent much time and effort on organizing registration, early voting, and turnout efforts. Marc Ambinder of, usually a cool observer, is in awe of their efforts. But as Jim Geraghty of notes, very few votes were cast during the one-week period of early voting in the crucial state of Ohio—far fewer than Geraghty (or I) expected. The most successful recent turnout drive was that of the Bush-Cheney ’04 campaign, which relied on peer-to-peer volunteers, local people who made connections with neighbors with whom they had something in common (fellow members of a particular church, fellow accountants, nearby neighbors). The Obama campaign, in contrast, seems to be depending on youthful volunteers who seem unlikely to have such connections. Ambinder notes that, over the summer, the Obama organization concentrated on attracting more volunteers and only in September started concentrating on metrics of voter contacts.

A disciplined approach, certainly. But how effective are all those volunteers? Are they as effective as those stocking-capped Perfect Stormers of the Howard Dean campaign in Iowa in January 2004? You saw those orange stocking caps swarming all over Des Moines, but they didn’t end up producing many caucus votes. And that was in an early stage of the contest. [snip]

And there are surely a lot of marginally involved young and black Obama supporters susceptible to organization efforts—people who would not vote if not contacted but who will if urged and helped to do so. But as Sean Oxendine of argues, the one-week Ohio early voting numbers suggest that the Obama organizational efforts may not be producing as many votes as the Obama campaign hopes. We simply don’t know. There will be other metrics in the weeks ahead on which to base judgments. But I think we’ll have to wait until the actual election results start coming in to make a judgment on the effectiveness of these tactics. Which was the case in 2004. Journalists then provided good accounts of the easy-to-cover Democratic organizational efforts in black neighborhoods and university towns. They provided very little on the harder-to-cover Bush-Cheney ’04 organizational story. My working hypothesis is that peer-to-peer is a lot more productive than young, stocking-capped volunteers. The Obama campaign’s organizational efforts are obviously far superior to the McCain campaign’s. But I think it’s an open question whether they will produce the kind of turnout increase that the Obama campaign wants and, if the balance of opinion changes a bit, will need.

The Obama hype is that this election is over and decided. But we suspect that many voters will wait and decide whom to vote for until the very last moment – in the election booth.

John McCain is getting hurt by the flood of bad economic news. But John McCain, can still make the case that Obama’s history in Chicago, with Rezko, presages how Obama would ruinously govern.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are not out of this race yet. Barack Obama and Joe Biden still have not closed the deal.

Many Americans have had a deep down distrust of Obama. The economic crisis is causing some to try to put their distrust aside and vote their fears.

John McCain has sufficient time to remind Americans why they do not trust Obama and why they should not trust Obama. McCain/Palin are beginning to raise the right questions about Obama’s character and history and record.

McCain/Palin have to set the records on Obama out for Americans to clearly see. McCain/Palin need to tell Americans “Don’t Believe The Obama Hype.”