Democrats are going to determine the Democratic nominee. As we wrote in the early morning hours: Hillary Clinton won the big Democratic states – the very states wherein Super-delegates reside. After Super Tuesday wins in states like Massachusetts Super delegates will not go against their constituencies.
Mark Penn echos our argument today:
As super-delegates consider which candidate to support, they will be looking at which one candidate has a base and can win the big states, including the crucial swing constituencies. We believe the impressive wins in NY, CA, MA, MI, FL, NJ, AZ suggest that Hillary is the one who can motivate a strong turnout in November. Several civil rights activists have recently written to Howard Dean to ask him to work out a solution to count the votes cast in FL and MI before the convention. More people voted in the Florida Democratic presidential primary (1.7 million) than voted in any other Florida presidential primary in history — about the same number who voted in New York.
In 2004, the Republicans peeled off close to 40% of the Latinos and many women concerned about national security – two groups that were pivotal in the 2004 general election. Catholics were another group Hillary swept that Democrats lost in 2004. The states and her strong diverse coalition of support presents a powerful case to the superdelegates looking at who can beat John McCain.
Mark Penn will be dismissed by the incense burning Big Media and their tool. But, the argument we made is also echoed today by reknown Hillary Hater Dick Morris:
While the apportionment of the delegates will distort her victory, the message is clear: Obama’s surge fell short.
Once again, the polls proved to be blind to the single women, the core of Hillary’s base, who flood the polls to back the possible first woman president.
Obama may inspire, but it is Hillary who quietly wins the unmarried women who struggle at minimum-wage jobs and desperately need public schools, mass transit, day care, health insurance and public services.
The political establishment does not hear their voices, but Hillary’s victory on Super Tuesday is based on them.
The polls will continue to be wrong because they are not geared to counting those who have never voted and are not normally part of the political system.
It must pain Dick to write those words, but he has more (in-between big servings of toxic hate) spiteful words acknowledging the eventual Hillary Clinton nomination:
But through it all are the inexorable demographics in Democratic primaries where women cast upwards of 60 percent of the vote.
Yesterday, inspiration confronted demographics. Charisma faced a laundry list of proposals that a large block of voters needed.
The prosaic won. And the doctrinaire ideological construct that her candidacy represents is likely to sweep the remaining contests and land her in the White House.
Big Pink, Penn and Morris are not alone in this analysis and understanding of Democrats and the American future:
Hillary Clinton’s strength among core Democratic constituencies — women, Latinos and working class whites — pushed her to victory in the mega-state primaries of California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts on Tuesday, slowing, at least for the moment, the momentum that had been building behind Barack Obama’s bid for the nomination.
Clinton’s solid majorities among women, who make up from 55 to 59 percent of voters in Democratic primaries, remains her most reliable source of support, although her backing among Latino voters not only helped her win California, but should work to her advantage in the potentially crucial March 4 Texas primary.
It’s feigned optimism in Mudville:
“I was beginning to feel optimistic,” said Notre Dame political scientist Darren Davis. “I bought into the fascination with Obama as the primary season went on.” Obama’s success winning support from blacks, independents, the college educated and young voters is “all well and good, but not significant enough to counteract the traditional Democratic base.” [snip]
MIT’s Charles Stewart did a study of how well Obama and Clinton did among African Americans, Hispanics, women and whites. Obama, as the campaign progressed, secured the backing of a decisive majority of black voters, but the other three groups backed Clinton — often by large margins — far more often than they cast majorities for Obama.
In the 19 primary states for which detailed exit poll data is available, Stewart found that whites and women in 15 states backed Clinton over Obama. Latinos in six of the nine states with Hispanic populations large enough to show up in exit poll data backed Clinton, Obama in two states and tied in one state.
In the nine states with large enough Latino populations to estimate how they voted, “Hillary Clinton has got a political base of women, seniors, and Hispanics that has been quite stable. He has African Americans and the [Bill] Bradley-[Paul] Tsongas Democrats. Her coalition is just slightly bigger in the Democratic primaries,” said Republican strategist-pollster Bill McInturff.
African-Americans progressed during the Bill Clinton presidency. African-Americans will do well in a Hillary Clinton presidency. The voices the “political establishment” does not listen to- such as women will also benefit with Hillary at the Helm.
Obama’s appeal to the well-off is a warning. The comfortable are not the ones who need help. As Congresswoman Maxine Waters said: People in my district have a lot of hope. They go to bed hungry, they have trouble heating their homes but they have a lot of hope that things will get better. They don’t need more hope, they need help.
Comfortable Big Media princes will continue to denigrate Hillary and her supporters. But Americans “invisible” to the comfortable will continue to afflict the comfortable every election day by voting for Hillary.