Democrats Will Decide

Democrats are going to choose the Democratic Party nominee for president – not Ralph Nader, not Naderites, not Big Media, not Big Blogs, not incense burners, not imported voters, not temporary Democrats, not Republican wolves in sheeps clothing, not PINOs, not DINOs, not winos. Democrats will decide.

In our very first article on this website we wrote:

Although we feel that Senator Clinton will be the nominee (we thought that way back in March 2006), the race, as always in a democracy, will be an exciting one. We will have lots to say especially with regards to the media and blog coverage of the campaign. We will keep an especially sharp eye on “progressives” or Democrats who repeat Republican propaganda to undermine Hillary or any of our candidates.

We’ve been proven right. The race has been exciting. We were also correct in our wariness regarding Big Media, Big Blogs and PINOs (Progressives In Name Only). The biggest “repeat Republican propaganda” PINO turned out to be Obama himself.

In The Democratic Wing Of The Democratic Party we quoted Keith Olbermann:

OLBERMANN: The last time a politician claimed to be a uniter and not a divider, it was George W. Bush. Better luck next time. Our fourth story tonight, our “Countdown” to 2008, and since the uniter title is available, Barack Obama is picking up the theme. The Illinois senator saying one of the reasons he decided to run for president because Hillary Clinton is too divisive to get the country out of what he calls our ideological gridlock.

Senator Obama telling the “Washington Post”: “I think it is fair to say that I believe I can bring the country together more effectively than she can. That is not entirely a problem of her making. So of those battles in the ‘90s that she went through were the result of some pretty unfair attacks on the Clintons. But that history exists, and so, yes, I believe I can bring the country together in a way she cannot do.”

Ironically, it is the same line of attack on Senator Clinton used by the White House after a new campaign ad said the middle class and even the troops are invisible to President Bush.

* * *

Today, in Iowa, all the work done the previous year will be put to the test. Hillary supporters in Churchillian terms will fight:

Many are the tales that are told. We are assured that novel methods will be adopted, and when we see the originality of malice, the ingenuity of aggression, which our enemy displays, we may certainly prepare ourselves for every kind of novel stratagem and every kind of brutal and treacherous maneuver. I think that no idea is so outlandish that it should not be considered and viewed with a searching, but at the same time, I hope, with a steady eye. [snip]

… we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.

We too will fight and we will win. Iowa is the first battle. The final battle arrives 11 months hence.

And let’s be careful with rumors today and keep “a steady eye” (read our warning HERE).

* * *

Democrats will vote to win…

Hillary has done her job. It’s up to us to carry the fight today.

At this point, there’s really nothing more Hillary Clinton can do, except to make sure her supporters actually show up tomorrow night.

“Call your friends, pick up a buddy, come out to caucus tomorrow night and together we will make history,” Clinton said.

The orders come from the top, but it’s Clinton’s troops marching through 15 degree weather who can carry them out.

Seniors, like Ken Hebron, are suddenly the most popular folks in town.

“Got two letters from Hillary yesterday!” he told CBS News chief White House correspondent Jim Axelrod.

To reassure supporters who’ve never caucused before, a campaign video tries to humorously point out that compared to some things, caucusing is easy.

If you need anything, even help with your kids, just ask.

One supporter did ask: “I’ve got four kids. Do you want to drive them everywhere they gotta be that night?”

A Clinton volunteer replied: “Let me take your name and see if we can help you.”

“Are you serious?” the woman asked.

“Yes,” the volunteer said. “We need everyone.”

The Clinton campaign says it has 5,000 volunteer drivers standing by. Four years ago, the Kerry campaign thought it had a lot – when it had 400.

* * *

Democrats will decide who our nominee will be — not PINOs, not the faint of heart, not temporary Democrats, not wolves in sheeps clothing, not Nader, not Naderites.

Democrats will decide.


315 thoughts on “Democrats Will Decide

  1. continued from last post…

    just wanted to wish everyone in iowa the best! give it everything you’ve got!

    (off to the races here in NH through tuesday night. see you january 8, 2008)

  2. FYI, I check Morning Joke so you don’t have to .. the morning line up includes BHO, JRE, Richardson, Huckabee, Stewie … no Hillary. In the first 10 minutes of the show, I don’t recall her name being mentioned except to show the opening clip from Letterman. Mika rolled her eyes and I flipped to Fox News, which actually had a presidential historian on who predicted Hillary to win. The concensus was, though, that the polls are not the predicters. Also, running on the Fox banner was that Hillary’s Iowa chair said that, so far, they had received 4,900 requests for rides to caucus. GOTV will certainly move that number upwards.

  3. Ben Smith (hi Ben): “Obama mail spins N.H., S.C. polling: ‘Only Obama'”

    “This recent mailer is pushing both Obama’s electability and his strength outside Iowa, with the stress on that Zogby poll reflecting a final push to end jitters about his ability to win a national election.

    “But there’s also a new stress on his ability to win the primary — ‘the momentum you create will nominate a president’ — and this line that ‘ONLY Obama leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina’ isn’t accurate. He has led some polls in both of those states, but the Clinton leads both the RealClearPolitics average and in most of the recent polls.”

    8) Glad to see Ben called out BHO’s “spin”, a polite way, based on the narrative, of saying “lie”.

  4. If BHO can steal and steal and steal Hillary’s lines, it’s only fair to send it back in full.

    Halperin has a great photoshop of Hillary on the cover of BHO’s book and says “New Clinton Iowa radio ad has voter voice saying she is the candidate of ‘hope’.

    “Plus: Borrowing another Obama line, Clinton says she’s ‘fired up’ and ‘ready to go’.”

  5. Finally, FirstRead/MSNBC has former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges, BHO’s national co-chair, identified as a lobbyist.

    “NBC’s Domenico Montanaro adds that Hodges is, in fact, a registered federal lobbyist, a search of the Senate Office of Public Records Lobbying Disclosure Act Database shows. He registered as such on June 1, 2007.”

    Apparently, BHO has decided to follow in the footsteps of his mentor and besides assuming the mantle of the new “uniter” he’s also going to take on the crown of “decider” and just decide to ignore his own prattle. Maybe he’ll just use a signing statement.

  6. I’m in the field in Iowa. I just want to say that we are strong. Our supporters are enthusiasitc and dedicated. I want to thank all of the volunteers who have put in a tremendous effort here in Iowa.

    I met with many of my precinct captains yesterday handing out the last of our lists and their energy is inspiring and comforting.

    We are determined to be wildly freakin’ successful in Iowa.

  7. I’ve come to the conclusion that people in general and Big Media in particular are living in some parallel universe where the obvious is hidden and the hidden is obvious.

    Jennifer Skalka at Hotline writes: “When it comes to fighting the GOP establishment, there’s no denying that [Hillary] is tested. But do Iowans want experience first – or are they looking to start a new chapter in the nation’s history?”

    Hello? Anybody there? Knock, knock. Anybody home?

    Look at the last sentence — “are they looking to start a new chapter in the nation’s history?”

    Have these people all been living on another planet for the past 8 years?

    Do they think that the “answer” is a “fresh face”, whatever that means (interpret as another “empty suit” and you’ll get it). On the Dem side, with the exception of the DINO candidate, all are offering a “new chapter”, new ideas. One candidate, our Hillary, even has plans on how to carry out those new ideas, which is which she is so often disparagingly referred to as a “policy wonk”, she actually believes in taking things beyond the idea stage to the planning state and then, oh my, actually setting those plans into action.

    She learned how to work this way fresh out of college and has been perfecting and expanding on that expertise ever since.

    Hillary is competent, capable and able, tenaciousness, and determined, which is a pretty good start on a “new chapter” if you ask me.

  8. Little things in the media irritate me. While surfing the channels last night I stopped on CNN. Lou Dobbs showed a brief video of Obama attacking him by name for his stand on immigration. He followed that with a clip of Hillary saying some TV commentators are filled with a “lot of hot air” on that issue. She mentioned no names.

    Dobbs complained angrily about that attack. He raked Hillary over the coals for that. Although Obama had mentioned him by name he got a free pass.

    I couldn’t believe it, but … she’s a woman!

  9. I don’t mean to be a downer early in the morning but I just saw Zogby’s new poll on C-Span for Iowa and it has 31 for O, 27 for JRE and 24 for Clinton. I don’t understand why she’s just dropping like that. I am really so nervous. I desperately want her to win Iowa.

  10. caroline, i saw that poll too. forget the polls ,it is all about turnout. in nh she will have a even playing field. she still has a shot at iowa. if the turnout operation is a good as they say she can still pull it out.

  11. i worked all night but i will be up all morning to catch all the caucus day coverage. i will nap in the eve and get up just in time when the doors close for the beginning in iowa 8pm my time eastern. don’t stress hillfans, she has MILES of support nationwide. i would love a 1-2 knockout punch(she may still do it)but we may have to go to the 3rd round for the knockout on feb 5th.

  12. Caroline, not sure whether I saw it here or elsewhere but I think now we’re seeing “Obama poll Tourette’s syndrome”. DMR is allegedly the most accurate in predicting the outcome so now expectations have been refocused. Everybody else must be polling wrong. It’s not even the entrance polls the media will begin with at 6/6:30 tonight in Iowa. They’ll try to forecast from those, as well.

    Ignore, ignore, ignore .. or you’ll end up crazy or wildly drunk.

  13. terrondt, it also comes down to the delegate numbers, too. Iowa and NH, though not unimportant, are less significant. Now Michigan, where BHO and JRE literally have screwed themselves, counts. As does Florida. Feb 5th is the really important date.

  14. Zogby got the numbers that Zogby got. His model was great two days ago, and we don’t like it today. Let’s just leave it alone. Everything now is the ground game. Everything is in the margin of error. Keep your chins up; Hillary is going to be our nominee, and she is going to knock their socks off in Iowa and New Hampshire!

  15. i hear ya b merryfield. im serfing the net trying to get more info in iowa plus watching those nh polls that are popping all over the place. hillfans one big question. will the winner of iowa carry over to nh or is that a myth? the media will spin it for sure.

  16. florida and michigan are fire walls, granted no delegates but i feel they will be seated by the convention.

  17. In 2004 presidential race, every poll projected a kerry win in the last day and we all know the result which was not even a close. Hillary draw a large crow recently. People attented her event are serious and commited people. she has a solid support. if the Zoby poll shows she drop 1 or 2 point then I will think it may make sense. If it shows her support have a big drop, then it will be laughable. Over the last couple days, we have story that people decide to caucus with Hillary and story that the switicher lady switch away from BHO. So poll doesn’t match what is happening on the ground.

  18. See. Look. Right here is the problem. Doug Thompson at CapitolHillBlue just wrote this today:

    “Among the front-runners on both sides, only Democrat Barack Obama voted against the invasion of Iraq but even his comments have tempered of late.”

    THIS is the crapola that people are believing? THIS is what people think? Why? Because BHO keeps saying that he has been against the war in Iraq from the beginning and even people who should know better can’t tell the difference between all the spin and reality. No wonder he gets a pass.

    Ok, Big Media, Big Blogs, and all H44 visitors. Pay attention!

    Sen. Barack Obama DID NOT VOTE. He was NOT a U.S. SENATOR, he was a STATE SENATOR and DID NOT HAVE A VOTE in 2002.

    Got it?

  19. b merryfield, i noticed in the last week he is not using that tired”i was against the iraq war from the start”. i could be wrong.

  20. B Merryfield, I wish she wouldn’t borrow that stupid fired up ready to go line. I think that line is lame.

  21. mj, I think Steinem had endorsed earlier but the post is new and the original link for the story doesn’t work. Use the TM link.

    I agree that I don’t like the fired up ready to go, but I do understand why .. give BHO no quarter, even on his memes.

  22. Marc Ambinder shows some wisdom on the possible turnout scenarios:

    * Hillary Clinton’s team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats — the more _new_ Democrats — the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.

    And yes — Dems — they’ll be Dems by the beginning of the caucus, because independents and Republicans will be forced to register as Democrats before they can participate.

    Some turnout facts:

    * 122,193 Democrats turned out in 2004.

    * The 2006 primary election turned out 184,000 Democrats.

    * Don’t automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.

    * There were approximately 500,000 Dems on the voter file who did not caucus in 2000 or 2004. There are 600,000 independents who tend to have weak vote history, especially in primaries.

    * 17,000 to 22,000 independents became Democrats and caucused in 2004, according to estimates.

    * About 1,500 Republicans turned out.


    And don’t forget about Ron Paul, who is now a strong possibility for 3rd place. His Indy and Repug numbers are, as my son keeps saying, “shock” some people. He will hurt some of McCain’s expectations but if BHO is counting on those college-based Indys, he’s in for a surprise, I think, as he and McCain will be in NH, where Ron Paul has a very large contingency here as well as sweeping into the state.

  23. Maybe the vetting is beginning. I went to Google News and search in the news for Obama Hodges lobbyist. There are a lot of stories out now about him hiring a lobbyist in spite of his campaign promises.

  24. She was leading the button poll by 7 points at christmas. I’d bet money Edwards/Obama people have been urging people to buy the buttons. Silly, I know. But she won the corn poll this summer. I don’t think they wanted her to win this too.

  25. This is confusig. They expect less votersthan in the 2006 primary elections? “* The 2006 primary election turned out 184,000 Democrats

  26. mj, how many hits did his holiness obama lama have for his closing argument. I am assuming he put it on you tube or whever too.

  27. hillfans, what is up with richardson and biden? looks like they both are winking and nodding their supporters to go to obama. are they that bitter to game it obama?

  28. terrondt, it’s just Camp Obama spinning rumor again. Remember the Gore endorsement rumors they started…twice. The Ted Kennedy endorsement rumors, etc..

  29. oic mj, i was kinda starting to wonder these so called establishment dems were stabbing her in the back. once hillary wins they better pray hillary does not hold grudges. a lot of people of her own party.

  30. Till last Sunday, all the polls showed her gaining in Iowa and that BO had peaked and was gradually falling. Then comes the DMR poll based on a questionable model and now everyone is touting that as the most accurate and other polls seem to fall in place behind it. Even if he makes the most outrageous statements and gaffes, the media does not cover it extensively for it to have any effect. It is so damn frustrating.

    I hope she pulls it off tonite. Hats off to all the dedicated staff and volunteers on the ground working so hard to make that happen.

  31. i wonder is rasmussen is going to do a nh tracking poll. i heard on a radio show the reason he did not track iowa is becuase caucuses are too difficult to poll and unperdictable.

  32. STOP with the Biden and Richadson rumors, please. Both Biden and Richardson have said it’s not true. Obama’s camp has started endorsement rumors all year. I remember when Gore was going to endorse him any day, that he had “talked” with him.

    It is a campaign trick as old as the hills, to spread that stuff. STOP repeating it.

    Our gal will win this nomination with or without Iowa’s piddly 50-some votes. But I still believe Iowan Democrats will come through for her.

    Go, Hillary!

  33. Supporters are individuals, not robots. They will make their own choices. We don’t need rumors, we have a HISTORY, with senator Biden, with Governor Richardson, with senator Dodd. People vote, or caucus based on their political leanings and looking at the HISTORY, all three are closer in their positions to Hillary than OB.

    To Emjay, Hawk, B.Merry and everyone in the trenches; God bless all of you for your dedication and hard work. Whatever the outcome tonight, when Hillary takes the stage and accepts the nomination, when she puts her hand on the Bible and takes the oath of office for her FIRST term, you guys will KNOW that you were there at the inception and that your blood, sweat, and tears helped propel her to the highest office in the world. I salute you all; Now, make those sandwiches, brew that coffee, warm up those vans, and let’s get out the vote for our girl!!!

  34. Iowa University/Iowa Electronic Markets

    Based on its results so far, no matter how well Barack Obama does in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday, Hillary Clinton is still going to be the Democratic nominee.

    The Des Moines Register poll showed Obama leading Clinton on the eve of the Iowa party caucuses by a margin of 32% to 25% on Wednesday.

    But the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa makes a different prediction. Shares on Clinton as of midnight Tuesday, the most recent available, were worth 63.3 cents, or more than twice as much as those on Obama, worth 24.4 cents. Former Sen. John Edwards came in at 12 cents. The values are equivalent to percentages of a party’s voting electorate. The trading in various candidacies for their party’s nomination has been going on since March 2.


    In 1996, 2000, and 2004, it called close presidential races correctly and has often been cited as one of the first functioning examples of “the wisdom of crowds.” It predicted Al Gore would win the popular vote by a narrow margin in 2000 and President Bush would prevail over Democrat John Kerry in 2004.


    The IEM on the 2008 November election shows the Democratic nominee beating the Republican in the November elections, regardless of who the nominees are, by a margin of 51.1% to 48.8%.

    “Sen. Clinton can survive a second- or even third-place showing in Iowa, as long as the gap behind the first-place finisher is not too large,” said University of Iowa political scientist Peverill Squire.

  35. I wonder why BHO camp keeps raise their expectation and spreads rumors the bedin and richardson will direct their supporters to BHO.


    Todd: Get your post-caucus spin now
    With this guide, you can analyze any result — before the Iowans gather

    By Chuck Todd
    Political Director

    updated 8:07 p.m. ET, Wed., Jan. 2, 2008

    DES MOINES, Iowa – In a matter of hours, following the results of the Iowa caucuses, a contest will begin. It will take place among the slew of national media trying to determine exactly what happened.

    But why should all this punditry wait until after the caucuses?

    With this handy guide, you can be your own caucus pundit.

    I’ll note the various scenarios and spins for each candidate, guiding you on the path to political punditry.

    Let’s start with the Democrats.

    John Edwards

    No one HAS to win more than Edwards. The good news for him is that a win over two celebrity candidates will mean something. The three spins:

    A solid win: Credit will be given to the fact that of the three candidates, no one’s been more focused on domestic issues than Edwards. He’s done a more credible job of “feeling the pain” of economically distressed Iowans than any other candidate, and as the economy becomes a bigger issue with local voters, Edwards’ populist stance has looked prescient. The possibility of riding this wave to momentum in the very economically sensitive New Hampshire is very real.

    A three-way tie: Edwards’ populist appeal was effective in getting the voters he wooed for the last four years, but that appeal failed to bring in new voters and an influx of women, independents and Republicans looking for less polarizing candidates. This made Edwards’ ability for a solid victory among Democratic activists very difficult.

    A loss: As noted above, no one has more at stake in Iowa than Edwards. While a three-way tie might convince the Edwards campaign they can go on and compete, a loss will be extremely difficult to spin. That said, the Edwards camp wants the presidency badly. So, don’t expect them to be forced out of this race easily even if the media ignores them after a less-than-impressive Iowa showing.

    Hillary Clinton

    A win: Strike up the inevitability pose. If Clinton squeaks out even a one-point win, it will have the effect of a landslide victory, particularly if she succeeds in a high-turnout scenario. She’ll need to follow up a win in Iowa with a win in New Hampshire, of course, but success here could motivate both rank-and-file establishment Democrats (who had been on the fence) to climb aboard. And that will send a message, in particular to women voters, that there is a movement happening, one that the media has ignored until now.

    A three-way tie: The Clinton camp will have two challenges in this scenario. One is to make sure the media doesn’t somehow turn the tie into a “60-plus percent of Democrats rejected her” spin. While the Clinton campaign believes that they’ve gotten bad media coverage, they do have to worry about a certain segment of the press interpreting Clinton as the incumbent being rejected by majority margins. The second challenge is to make sure they declare victory in this case. With the polls indicating that Edwards and Obama had the juice to win, and Clinton seeming destined for no better than second, a tie may equal a win if her camp plays their cards right.

    A loss: Obviously, the Clinton team would rather lose to Edwards than to Obama. Third place would be a near-disaster scenario; second is recoverable. There will be a lot of Friday morning quarterbacking about whether Clinton should have even played in Iowa. It was never a natural fit and because many in the national media know this, there’s every chance she’ll get a few more primaries to prove herself.
    No chance anyone believes she’s one or two and done. There’s too much history with the Clintons and their ability to come back. Despite what they think of the media, they’ll be looking for comeback hints at some point; maybe it’s Nevada, maybe it’s Feb. 5.

    Here’s another post-spin to expect from Clinton if Obama wins on the backs of independent and GOP support: Look for Clinton surrogates to feed the notion that the voice of rank-and-file Democrats is being drowned out by outside influences. The blogs have picked up on this, and despite not being big Clinton fans, one could envision how the campaign could pivot with “We’ve been in these fights with Democrats in the trenches; it’s important for Democrats to have a greater voice” etc.

    Something to watch for …

    Barack Obama

    A win: I can’t imagine a scenario where Obama wins the Democratic nomination and loses Iowa. If he’s the nominee, it’ll mean he won Iowa by a margin similar to what the Des Moines Register projected this week, allowing his “movement” candidacy to take off. Movements need victories, and no one may be better equipped to feed off a victory than Obama. That’s why the Clinton campaign knows stopping Obama is essential. No campaign will have a greater bandwagon opportunity with a victory in Iowa than Obama, because a victory here will mean folks will start buying the idea that there is something going on out there. It would suggest that more folks are getting involved in the Democratic Party process (more indies, more GOPers, more youth, etc.). And that’s a contagious thing with voters. But movement candidacies NEED victories; they die quick deaths if they lose — just ask Howard Dean.

    A tie (either two-way or three-way): Obviously, Obama doesn’t mind not winning as long as the person who is ahead of him is Edwards and not Clinton. The Obama folks are confident that they can marginalize Edwards post-Iowa if Clinton is the candidate in third, instead of Obama. A tie with Clinton puts more pressure on Obama to try to win New Hampshire and prove he can actually beat her. As I noted above, movements need victories, and a tie might hurt Obama more than people realize.

    A loss: See above explanations about movement candidates. Obama has the money to run a national campaign, but the burden of expectations is with him right now, and negative “we told you so” narratives could take hold if Obama’s plan to get indies, GOPers and young voters to the polls fails.

    Everyone else:

    Joe Biden
    If he tops Richardson for fourth, look for Biden to stick around for a while (possibly through South Carolina) but if he fails to gain traction in Iowa, how long does he stay around, particularly if he’s being left out of debates?

    Chris Dodd
    Connecticut’s senior senator is not interested in embarrassing himself with multiple losses. Hard to imagine him sticking around longer if he indeed ends up in sixth (or even seventh).

    Bill Richardson
    If crowd sizes are any indication, then Richardson better watch his fourth-place back as Biden appears to be consistently drawing bigger crowds. But Richardson seems intent on sticking through the Nevada caucus since he’s made such a big deal about having a Western Democratic presence in this race. But finishing fifth in both Iowa and New Hampshire is going to make it hard for him to keep going.

  37. Funny as hell…Gail Collins in today’s NYT (with apologies, I don’t think Iowa is irrelevant, but I do think Gail’s take is pretty hysterical.)

    “As the presidential candidates tell them every single day, Iowans deserve to be the nation’s kingmakers because they are exceptional citizens who take their responsibilities very, very seriously. So tonight, even though it’s very cold — even though it’s Hokies vs. Jayhawks in the Orange Bowl — the sturdy Iowa voters will pull on their parkas and go out to fulfill their historic destiny. Perhaps as many as 15 percent of them!

    “Money will become irrelevant once somebody wins the Iowa caucus,” said John (I Currently Have No Money) Edwards. “The winner of the Iowa caucus is going to have huge amounts of money pouring in.” Edwards, the Democratic third-runner, has spent more time in Iowa than many Iowans, who have a tendency to flee to Florida in the winter.”

  38. meiyingsu, they do it so that people will spread the rumor, and worry, and wonder, and so Hillary supporters or leaners will get discouraged.

    Which is why I said to stop. You are reacting exactly the way they want you to. THAT is why they spread the rumor.

  39. The rumor mongering is getting so absolutely ridiculous. Chase Martyn, the guy shilling for Obama first puts out a rumor , aided and abetted by a BO staffer who “smiles” and hints at Richardson helping BO. Remember, they tried this with Biden yesterday and that got denied too. A Richardson campaign staffer denies this unequivocally and says this is campaign shenanigans. But even this is not enough for Martyn. Since he’s lost face, he’s now saying that there may not be a “deal” but an “internal strategic decision” that the Richardson campaign does not want to be made public. Desperation and shilling at its worst ! Nothing can stop the incense burners.

  40. While RCP does show an advantage to Obama of 4.2% in Iowa, some good people on this forum have said that website does not give an accurate score for various reasons. was recommended instead. They have a different result which I obviously like a lot better.

    They show an ARG poll conducted over the 31st, 1st, & 2nd showing these numbers for Hillary, Edwards, Obama: 34, 21, 25. If that has been posted on this forum, I still enjoy seeing those numbers. I hope they are right.

    They also show some averages which are not quite as good, but then neither are they as bad as the RCP average.

  41. While Googling just now, it occurred to me in another one of those “duh” moments that Iowa caucusers are not going to be paying an iota’s worth of attention to what Chase Martyn or his minions, BHO and his minions, or the chattering class have to say online. Nor do I think that they’re sitting around waiting for Tweetie or any other talking head to tell them how to vote tonight. They’re not going to be checking and comparing the polls.

    My advice? Read all you want but QUIT IT with this nervous Nellie nonsense. Unless you are one, you’re just feeding the trolls.

  42. i found that poll on another blog, sherm out of iowa from arg. still despite polls it is all about turnout either polls favor hillary or not. im trying to confirm it on arg’s website but it is not updated. im gonna crash soon. getting away from the computer and tv should do me good for 8 hours. hillfans, thanks for what all you do on the ground in iowa,nh, and here. GO HILLARY GO!!!!

  43. Some of the Obama supporters over at Daily Kos have really worked hard at hoodwinking people by claiming that Obama opposed the war as a senator. They get really mad (and will TR you like crazy), if you point out he was a state senator. A lot of ’em really try to sell that line of bunk, knowing what it is.

    Obama supporters are the weirdest, most dishonest bunch of Dems I’ve seen since the seventies. Hopefully, his campaign will collapse and they’ll be so offended, they’ll return to the GOP where too many of ’em came from in the 1st place.

  44. Lynn Sweet writes today about BHO’s call to Condi Rice and VOA radio message. She spins a nice yarn about her trip to Africa back in 2006 when she accompanied BHO “home”. Then she hits it with the punch line.

    “But Obama’s claim of uniqueness is being offered as a reason he should be president. The Voice of America statement is a good first step. What’s next?

    Obama can’t vote present on Kenya.

  45. ARG has Hillary up 9 in Iowa, and that was done at the as same time the Zogby poll showing Obama up 7 over Hillary. Interesting that Zogby’s final numbers match what DMR had. Hmmm…

  46. “Hillary Clinton’s team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats.”

    That’s the first I’ve seen her campaign say anything about possible outcomes. I find it encouraging.

  47. Paula:

    All of a sudden Zogby changed his turnout model. He has very little credibility as a pollster. Hence it is useless to compare today’s numbers with yesterdays.

    ARG atleast stuck their turnout model. That will basically tell us if there was change in the raw data from their previous poll.

    The question with ARG is they are using a 83/17 turnout model which is too conservative, IMO. Hillary has 38% support with democrats and 15% with independents. BO has 21% democrats and 45% independents. JRE has 21% democrats and 19% independents. Depending on the actual % of independent turnout either BO or Hillary could win. If independent % stays at or below 30% Hillary will win. If it goes 40% BO will win.

    The bottom line is the ground game to get as many as your supporters to the caucus. It all depends on who turns out more – democrats or independents? That is why at this point it is turnout, turnout, turnout. There is no point in further analysing the polls.

  48. Marc Ambinder also reports that Edwards’ people project 135,000 to 140,000 Dems will caucus, which would help Hillary and Edwards.

  49. So I have a question! When exactly will we have the election results from the caucuses? Amazingly enough, I am STILL somewhat mystified by this process. How long do the caucuses last? Is there a time limit or can they go all night? When do the polls close (so to speak)?

    I know CSPAN has live coverage of one of the caucuses from 7pm-12pm(?) EST tonight. Unsure of the end-time… I’m sure Tweety et al will be spinning all night, but when do the REAL numbers come in?

  50. ra1029, I saw ARG used 17 percent non-Dems, which I also think is too conservative. But 17 percent is a heck of a lot closer to what happened in 2004 (20 percent) than the 45 percent DMR came up with. I agree with you on the 30 percent threshold as the key.

  51. Interesting that Ambinder had no quotes from Obama people on projected turnout.

    Obama predicted that 200,000 of his Chicago supporters alone would show up at the caucus.

  52. Screw the polling, it is all academic today. Both ARG and ZOGBY are at the bottom of the survey anyway. Root for our gal. Root for our angels on the ground. Root for DEMOCRATS to decide the DEMOCRATIC caucus.

  53. I found this post on Marc Ambinder blog:

    The gold standard: DMR:

    November 2004:

    Kerry 48 Bush 45

    Zogby following the gold standard:

    Kerry 50 Bush 45

    results: Bush +5 In Iowa

    Even though the media and the other campaigns are desperate to keep this nomination going, Hillary wins with a machine.

    Posted by craigfarmer | January 3, 2008 9:46 AM

  54. I’m still predicting 1) Hillary 2) Edwards 3) Obama, and for reasons I’ll discuss later, but I’m sure Admin may know about as well.

    BTW, CNN reporting some stupid story about Hillary maybe appointing Bill for the Supreme Court. Admin was right, the BM rumors are already starting, does Fox own CNN now?

  55. lol, desperate is the word clintondem99. i realized this the day hillary announced. they(big media,haters, and nutkooks) will stop at nothing. im recording on my dvr tonite msnbc just to see the look on tweety and pumkin head russert’s face when she is hopefully called the winner.

  56. BTW, CNN reporting some stupid story about Hillary maybe appointing Bill for the Supreme Court.

    And the pigs will fly.

  57. Video of Hillary on the press bus yesterday:


    ARG Poll: Hillary Still Ahead In Iowa

    By Eric Kleefeld – January 3, 2008, 10:43AM

    The new American Research Group polling out of Iowa has has some good news for Hillary Clinton — they give her a healthy lead in the Iowa Caucus, though they are the last major pollster at this point to be doing so.

    Here are the numbers, as compared to their previous polls from last week:

    Clinton 34% (+3)
    Obama 25% (+1)
    Edwards 21%(-3)
    Biden 8% (+3)
    Richardson 6% (+1)

    Huckabee 29% (+6)
    Romney 24% (-8)
    Thompson 13% (+6
    McCain 11% (+0)
    Giuliani 8% (+2)
    Paul 6% (+0)

  59. limabeans, the caucus starts at 7, and usually goes a couple of hours, so definitely after 9 pm CT. The media will be spinning like mad from the entrance polls before that, though.

  60. Sending lots of love and support to all the Hillary folks in the field today. Go Emjay, go Hawk, go HillaryLandRocks, go all y’all out there drivin’ people to the polls, settin’ up precints. Hooray for you all and all the good folks coming out today in Iowa to stand for our girl. You will be glad you stood for her and she most certainly stand for you as 44!

    Take care and don’t get distracted by the hype! Don’t listen to the people in the “stands.” Let us know what we can do to help!

    The only thing that matters the day of the big one is what happens the day of the big one. Remember, we’ll all be dancin’ together at Hillary’s inauguration!

  61. OK. I’m in a shitty mood anyhow, but I have seen two stories that royally piss me off and seem badly sourced. Biden’s throwing his voters to Obama and Richardson is too. WTF? Obama is planting BS stories in an effort to gain some mo’. Little mauve-lipped f#$%@#. Is there anything not too dirty for that asshole to pull?!?

    Richardson is denying it at least.

    And screw Dennis Kucinich. Elf-boy has no clue whatsoever.

  62. To go with the video of Hillary delivering bagels to the press bus, here is the snot-nosed comment from the Georgetown Social Club (Hi, Ben!) who were obviously pissed that the finger bowls didn’t have scented geraniums floating in them:

  63. Okie: IT’S a bunch of bs. More attempts to intimidate. Iowans ain’t gonna go to a candidate just cause first choice tells them to.

    People are much more likely to go to Hillary from Biden or Richardson. Hillary is still the 20 point lead frontrunner. If Biden and Richardson want to play a bigger role in the future of this country, their supports logically would want to go to the person who is most likely to win this race in the long haul. They also are experience people so why would they support somebody as inexperienced as Obama.

    There are rumors a flying today! BS BS

  64. Here’s what the snot-noses (Hi, Ben!) wrote:

    Hillary on the press bus

    Hillary stepped onto the parked press bus in Indianola for about 90 seconds to deliver bagels and coffee, and I’m not sure what this says about Clinton and the press — the chill, I think, comes from both sides — but it was a strange moment. She expressed her sympathies that we’re away from our families and “significant others,” tried a joke at the expense of her press secretary, and paused. Nobody even shouted a question, whether because of the surprise, the assumption that she wouldn’t actually answer, or the sheer desire to end the encounter.

    One reporter compared the awkwardness to running unexpectedly into an ex-girlfriend.

    “Maybe we should go outside and warm up,” said another, as Clinton exited into the freezing air.

    My conclusion: The snot-noses in the Georgetown Social Club are scared you-know-what-less by Hillary Clinton. She intimidates the hell out of them.

  65. Bill is too old for the Supreme Court; you need to appoint someone young who will last longer. Obama maybe? He would have to do some work there. He couldn’t be a one-man show star.

  66. Dang, 1950Dem, he’d have to hold down a full time job for the first time in his life! (All of his previous gigs have been part-time)

  67. Right hwc, they get intimidated. They have no balls when she they come face to face with her. Or rather, their balls just shrivelled up. Its true, you know.. cowards.

  68. Obama doesn’t have the legal or political experience to bring much to the Supreme Court. Plus, he’d turn it down like Mario Cuomo did. Not enough time in the spotlights. Justices actually have to work.

  69. Ben is a snarky guy, isn’t he? Everything positive Hillary does is spun into a negative. Why do they have people like Anne Kornblut and Ben Smith covering Hillary when clearly they never seem to have anything nice to write about her.

  70. God forbid if he ever makes it to the Supreme Court. He’ll never be able to give a judgement. I can well imagine, BO as a sitting justice writing his momentous opinion with a mere one word – “PRESENT”. Unable to side with either majority or minority opinion.

  71. I’d like to point out Bill does not have a current law license. He gave his up after he left office because of the Lewinsky scandal.

    Also, Bwak doesn’t have the stones to be on SCOTUS. The last place we need that dickhead is on SCOTUS making deals. Imagine if Roe were up again…you know damn well he’d just vote “present.”

    We will have probably at least two seats to fill on SCOTUS in the next 4 years. Whomever is chosen will have to be bright and absolutely committed to the rule of law. The idealogical crap that goes on there now is ridiculous. Scalia has gone nuts, Alito is a tool, Clarence Thomas- well, let’s say I know Anita Hill and I absolutely believe her. My hubby knows her better and he is convinced of her story and her absolute integrity.

    I sorta like David Iglesias….

  72. Okie: Wasn’t Biden on judiciary when Anita Hill’s case came up? I absolutely, positively believed her too.

  73. Okie can a supreme court justice vote “present.”? But seriously, folks, this is one reason why Hillary as 44 is so fundamentally important. We have got to have some stellar supreme court justices and soon! It is a critical situation … absolutely critical. SOmething to think long and hard about.

  74. I am changing my outlook. Obviously, I am hoping Barak comes in 3rd tonight. But even if Hillary comes in 3rd, I am not going to bitch and moan and whine like a wimpy cry-baby. This is a big fight, and a serious one and a long one. We can’t rollover and we can’t let the tiny battle kill our spirit. Hillary deserves better! And we deserve better. I want a good president, damnit!! I will keep working for it.

  75. I think he was, MollyJ. Professor Hill is a very Christian woman. Did you know she sewed her own suits. Including the ones she wore when testifying. Seriously.

    She got a raw deal.

    And no, SCOTUS justices cannot vote “present” per se, but they can recuse at anytime for any reason. Worse yet, they can right non-majority opinions which can muddy the caselaw substantially. Not to mention madden Westlaw reps.

    I really like David Iglesias. He’s an amazing guy. He spoke at our bar convention in November. I was sad I had to miss it. But a good dear colleauge of mine went and actually had lunch with him. She said he was extremely impressive and his command of facts and law, plus his unique experinces made him intimidating. I didn’t know until she told me but he was the basis for Tom Cruise’s character in “A Few Good Men.” No shit.

  76. Don’t worry, Okie, I am in the same kinda mood! Typos don’t bother me. I appreciate what you said about Ms. Hill. I thought she was entirely credible; I believed her the minute I saw and heard her and she did get a very raw deal. You could also tell that she knows who she is and is very strong.

  77. FYI, just read this in an article on The author said he suspected Obama’s numbers would sink in Iowa during the Christmas holidays because his voters are the ones most likely not to be home. His point was, the race really has not changed in the last few weeks. So Hillary didn’t surge then and Obama’s not surging now. It’s still too close to call.

  78. BTW, that rumor about Hillary appointing Bill to SCOTUS is garbage, of course. Obama’s people are working overtime spreading rumors (this, the Richardson and Biden second-choice “report”).

  79. Just had another one of those “duh” thoughts about all this BS flying around about Biden and Richardson allegedly handing off their “seconds” votes to BHO or whomever — how does this ring in the hearts and minds of the folks who have been digging down deep to contribute to their campaigns? If I was one of them, I’d be pissed. Another good reason to ignore the nonsense.

  80. Taylor Marsh has a red message across the top of her page that reads that she’s been in direct contact with Biden’s campaign and there are NO deals. They’re headed for NH with everyone else.

    TM, however, hasn’t been able to confirm Chase Martyn’s BS either. She has given CM lots of coverage with her online radio broadcasts and, IMHO, he’s a rat. You heard my opinion here first.

  81. Notice how there aren’t any rumors from Hillary’s people. They’re just quietly working their asses off.

  82. And Biden’s probably none too happy to have this BS being pushed by the Obama people. Think he won’t remember that when he does eventually drop out and considers endorsing someone else?

  83. Bob Somerby writes today:

    “Cable pundits have spent the past week doing the one thing they can’t hope to do—attempting to predict the outcome of tonight’s caucuses. Dumb as rocks, and proud to show it, they seem to revel in their cluelessness. They cherry-pick the polls they like, then pretend they’ve never heard of the vagaries of sampling. But then again, some of these people are so dead-dog dumb that they actually may not have heard.

    “Margin of error? Most of them have heard of the concept—but few of them show any real sign of understanding that polls provide approximations of possible outcomes. Small hint: On the Democratic side, the Iowa race has been a three-way tie going all the way back to the spring. But these people are proud to be dumb. They’re proud to pretend they don’t know this.”

  84. Hooray for Taylor Marsh pointin’ out the falsehood of the rumors comin’ from the Obama camp re Biden.

    Hooray for Paula for pointin’ out the report on Taylor Marsh and the other on

    Hooray for B Merryfield for the article just posted; we can’t say it often enough: we got to help out people who don’t understand even the most basic concepts like margin of and statistical tie. lord save us.

    Why do Obama people have to stir up shit like rumors? Is it that they will do ANYTHING to win?

    I am proud to say that Hillary is the kind of leader who models the behavior she expects in others.

  85. There was a diary at daily kos today by one of the premier Obama Kossacks. She’s on the ground in Iowa. She was ranting against the Edwards people because they had a chance to support a real progressive. The diary went into meltdown mode and then was deleted. Some of us have been wondering if she has heard something from her campaign that disturbed her.

    Did anyone notice the NYT story that Grinnell was expecting only 13 percent of its student body to come back to school? Surely, even all of them were not for Obama.

  86. alright guys. I’m committed right now to one and only one thing:

    praying for Hillary to win in Iowa and just end this whole primary thing with a sweep.

    I’m going to avoid this site prbbly until 8:oo PM ET when I’ll be on the edge of my seat most likely. lol

    anyways, will be praying and catching up on some hw. so byez.

    i sincerely wish and pray for a resounding whimper of remorse to come from both the Obama and Edwards’ campaigns tonite at around 8:00 ET. 😀

  87. …Grinnell was expecting only 13 percent of its student body to come back to school?

    With a student body of 1500, that’s only 165 people. Won’t make any difference because that Grinnell college town precinct would give max delegates to Obama regardless.

  88. For some reason, I have began to have positive vibes. This morning when I woke up and watched all news, I was feeling so depressed because it looked like everyone had given the win to his holiness Obama Lama. But as the day went on, I began to feel better and I can’t explain why. I was really ok with her coming in a close 2nd but now because of all the crap this woman had to go through with the media and all, I want her to win.

  89. He said he expected more than 150 students back at Grinnell, which has a long history of social activism and where about 80 percent of the 1,150 student body is from out of state. The ward where he will caucus, he said, is especially important because delegates are apportioned according to previous turnout, and Grinnell, like other college towns, has a relatively high population density and high rate of turnout.

    “We’ll have 37 delegates, which makes it the most important single caucus in the state,” he said.

    He said Mr. Obama was especially well-organized in his area, but added: “The Clinton campaign has a core group of very committed student activists, and they have done not only a lot of work on campus but — and this is the untold story of the youth-voter impact — the Clinton campaign has been working tirelessly in the greater community to help mobilize all voters, not just their peers.”

  90. Taylor Marsh will be live at 3 and has plenty of bandwidth today so everyone can listen. She is going to be discussing the Biden/Richardson rumors and Chase Martyn may call in. If he does, she plans to call him out on the rumors (caveat – he’s an BO supporter).

  91. “The Clinton campaign has a core group of very committed student activists, and they have done not only a lot of work on campus but — and this is the untold story of the youth-voter impact — the Clinton campaign has been working tirelessly in the greater community to help mobilize all voters, not just their peers.”

    That’s very good to hear.

  92. I have a gut feeling that the media will start going after Obama’s record and his avoidance of questions surrounding his time as an IL legislator and as a lawyer. He has been harping about when Hillary’s papers from her time in the White House will be released and yet when questioned about his papers from IL he says he does not know where they are and that they may have been thrown out. Who is this guy kidding??? That excuse is on par with “the dog ate my homework”, he is a lawyer was a Law Professor, state legislator and has written 2 books. that recount much about his life. This guy has never thrown out a piece of paper in his life……

  93. rjk: Just for the record, I believe Obama’s title was Adjunct Lecturer or perhaps Senior Lecturer but he wasn’t a Law “Professor.” Professor is a rank at a university or professional school which must be earned. It is the highest academic rank which generally go: Assistant Professor, associate Professor and (full) Professor. Lecturer and/or Instructor are titles used for part-time teachers or teachers who are not considered part of the faculty proper.

    I do hope your prediction is true. He should be thoroughly vetted same as every candidate. And, of course, we know that Hillary has been vetted like no other candidate in the history of the Presidency most probably.

  94. Thursday, January 3, 2008 1:33 PM CST
    Biden: No deal on other candidates
    By CHARLOTTE EBY, Courier Des Moines Bureau
    DES MOINES — For anyone wondering whether Democrat Joe Biden would ask his supporters to get behind another candidate on caucus night the Biden campaign has an answer — no way.

    Biden, a U.S. senator from Delaware, has polled in the single digits throughout the caucus campaign. But his campaign said Thursday he would not ask supporters to caucus for someone else if he is not viable — meaning if he does not gain support from 15 percent of the people in a precinct caucus.

    Biden’s Iowa State Director Danny O’Brien issued the following statement shortly after noon Thursday:

    “There are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign,” O’Brien said. “We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own. Everyone knows that Sen. Biden is a popular second choice for the supporters of all the other campaigns. We remain confident that Sen. Biden will surprise folks this evening.”

  95. B Merryfield: Yes, that’s the article I was referencing. Grinnell is about as good as they come, and they aren’t mustering the kinds of numbers I think DMR would have predicted. Who knows, but if I were Barack Obama, 13 percent would have made me really nervous.

    I was just watching Ann Lewis on MSNBC. She was a little nervous, but she seemed generally relaxed, happy, and hopeful. I always read the faces of these people to see if I can guess what’s really happening.

  96. Put me in the category of stressed and pissed!! They KEEP ON showing that damn DMR poll even though that was days ago and so many other polls came out then and since!! The MSM is definitely Anti-Hillary and Pro-Obama!! I saw that jerk Mathews on MORNING JOE today. He was raving about how a win for Obama would mean SO MUCH IN THE WORLD!!! Excuse me, but did Jesus return to earth??? LOL!!


  97. Regarding young voters, that seems to be all that work on Hillary’s campaign. During my year volunteering, I have met and spoken to many, many staffers and they are all in the 20’s or younger!!!

  98. Did you guys get this little gem from Taylor’s site?:

    Cheryl Talbert attended Romney’s morning speech to employees of Principal Financial Group in Des Moines and said that as a moderate Republican, she likes him and Arizona Sen. John McCain. But she planned to attend a Democratic caucus, in what she called a ”defensive move” against a Clinton presidency.

    ”I’m going to vote for Obama, as an anti-Hillary vote,” she said, ”and I have two friends doing the same thing.”

    Many of us here were talking about the potential for this type of fraud — and I mean Fraud.

  99. B Merryfield thank you for the correction. The point I was trying to make is he knows exactly where his papers are and just will not release them. and the media has not called him on it yet.

  100. rjk1957, Lynn Sweet at the ChiSunTimes has written about this but there’s nothing anyone is going to be able to do. You can issue a subpoena. What else is there?

  101. Does the name Richare Feyneman ring a bell?

    No, no I don’t mean Howard Fineman that smug Hillary hating idiot from Newsweek who looks like a poster child for an Ex Lax commerical.

    Richard Feyneman, the guy who discovered the cause of the Challenger Shuttle disaster, the physicist who won the Nobel Prize in 1964, and refused to go to the Stockholm ceremony to accept it.

    I now believe I know why. He was a true scientist and had no desire to be in the company of scientific quacks who were governed by group think as opposed to empirical truth.

    I am quite sure he would be equally uncomfortable in the presence of journalists like his namesake who never let a little thing like the truth stand in the way of a bad story, or pollsters who use faulty methodology to reach a faulty result to drive a headline.

  102. Well, the primary season is finally here and I’m wound up like a second-grader on Christmas eve. I’ll predict a close victory for Hillary tonight, but as long as she finishes in the top 3 and finishes strong, she’ll be just fine. The Clinton Iowa Team has some of the best get-out-the-vote operatives, and their efforts have been tremendous. Go Hillary!

  103. I am praying for an Iowa win for Hillary but even if she loses, she will STILL go on to be the Democratic nominee!!! Hillary has NEVER lost an election in her life!!

  104. Filbertsf @ 3:17: these stories make us mad, but they are valuable nonetheless because they show fellow Democrats that Obama is in fact the Trojan Horse for the Republican Party that we have always said he was, and that a vote for Obama is ultimately a vote against our Party.

  105. The attorney in my office who was leaning to Bwak is now in our corner. Damnit, friends don’t let friends vote Obama.

  106. from friend in Iowa caucusing for Obama (from ILlinois), an estimated 800-1000 Illinoisans are swiftly spreading out along the eastern border of Iowa. They don’t want a Hillary win by any means.

  107. No matter what the outcome is tonight, it still takes 2181 delegates to win the nomination and Hillary will win it. No doubt about it.. Let’s see how O and Edwards do in states where repubs and indies can not cross over…

  108. Friends don’t let friends vote Obama.

    I love it!!! I am trying to convert my bone-head friends, but they all think Barak is purrrrrrrrfect! I can’t seem to penetrate that bubble of delusion.

  109. as many know, Iowa and Illinois are border states. Many people who live in Illinois have family in Iowa and vice versa as well as affluent families that have second or third homes in Iowa…thus, possibly they can be counted as residents.

    and others are using the addresses of any friends or families that are willing. That’s the gist of what I understand so far. I haven’t really found out much more than this.

  110. MJS, if that’s true… I’ll say this since Emjay and other Iowans are not here. Screw Iowa and their invitation for fraud.

  111. I told my sister on the phone before I was afraid Obama would do something “illegal” to win! This crossing over from Chicago to vote in Iowa is NOT LEGAL!!! Isn’t there anyway somebody can stop this? Aren’t they supposed to SHOW PROOF they are residents of Iowa???

  112. this has been planned for at least weeks now. I’m sure many of the Obamazoids have worked out the kinks and prbbly are prepared for any “proof” they have to show.

  113. MJS, I know this sounds absurd, but shouldn’t you report what your friend and her friends are planning to do? It’s illegal. You can’t just cross the boarder, claim some phantom address and demand to vote.

    This reeks of fraud.

  114. the problem filbertsf, is who will believe me?
    #1: the media has heard these rumors too. I’ve been telling everyone from here, to Taylor Marsh, to Hillary Clinton’s people themselves and I’m sure the media has stumbled across this too.

    They won’t say anything. They won’t let Obama’s moment be snatched, no matter how unfair this is.

    #2: telling the police or whatever would either get me a loud laugh or who knows what. I have no idea where these people are. All I know is that they are in Iowa and they are seeking to do some serious wreckage. I just hope the clinton campaign is ready.

    I informed people like Mo and Crystal from the Clinton campgin about this weeks ago. I’m sure they’ve had adequate time now to prepare for the worst and rat out the Illinoisans. Or at least I hope so.

  115. this is all that is required to caucus in Iowa I believe:

    Any voter who is a registered Republican or Democrat, and can prove residency in Iowa, can participate in the caucus of their party.

  116. There are lawyers amongst us, I’d invite them to offer an opinion as to how suspicion of voter fraud can be handled. In an election you can challenge in court, ask for a recount, what have you. I dunno what can be done in a caucus, and I am not familiar with the state of Iowa at all.

  117. Guys, don’t stress about the supposed influx of voters from Illinois for two reasons:

    1) Eastern Iowa would lean towards Obama anyway (due to geographic predispositions), so there is not much delegate difference AND

    2) Did we forget that last night HillaryLandRocks stated that HRC’s campaign had something planned to surprise MJS’s out-of-state friends, but details couldn’t be released until 7pm tonight?

    No worries! Our girl will be FINE!!

  118. MJS –

    I don’t know how much can be done. The rules are what the rules are – and you can show up the night of the caucus and claim you live in Iowa and register. Iowa, because it is a rural state, does not demand that people show IDs in order to register – this is a point that progressives have to fight to maintain in order to protect rural elderly who do not have the same need for an ID that the rest of us who drive do and frequently have no ability to get to a DMV. Just know that Hillary’s voter protection act (or whatever it is called) would maintain the system without requiring IDs.

    I’ve worked in rural areas during primaries. What holds them together is that most people working the primaries (which are, obviously, different than caucuses) have a pretty good idea who lives in the neighborhood – and that serves as an effective, if informal, check against fraud.

    I suspect the only way to deal with it would be to document large numbers of people who haven’t participated before, and informally follow up on the addresses that they claim. If you could legitimately establish large pools of people voting who don’t live in Iowa, you could begin to make the case that one of the campaigns cheated. From there, you could hope for an investigation.

    This is tough. This is why the campaigns were warning against this early. It’s the only way to discourage this kind of behavior.

  119. question is how do you “prove residency”. I have a sis who lives in a midwestern state. Could I show up and give her address and suddenly become a resident of that state? Without showing a driver;s license, what have you? Native Iowans are not going to appreciate this and I dare say a precinct captain may well know when some folks from outside of Iowa walk in.

  120. Just saw on CNN, Iowa turnout expected to be 220,000. Wondering about the percentage of independents. If that increased turnout prediction is largely Dems, our girl is poised to do very well.



  123. CNN can expect this or that turnout all they want. They haven’t got a clue. Big Media is especially clueless as to what happens outside Des Moines. Truth is nobody knows the turnout until it’s all over tonight.

  124. Regardless as to the outcome in Iowa, we must remember that our girl has the BEST organization in NH, and a vast majority of reliable voters in that state are in her corner.

  125. AFH, calm down. The campaign is aware of this, and has been for some time. They will do what they need to do. Making a big stink right now may undercut any plans they already have of when and how to fight this, so chill out a little.

  126. Remember also 4,900 drivers ready for tonight. 5,000 on-call volunteer drivers. 600 shuttles and mini-vans rented. Kerry had 300-500 drivers!

  127. A big danger tonight is the “entrance polls”. Big Media can spin these entrance polls any way they want. Big Media can also pick college precincts to do entrance polls at and skew the results to Obama (if we assume that college age supporters will skew towards Obama).

    On the ghost supporters situation: this year’s caucuses will allow videotape equipment such as camcorders into the caucus rooms. Youtube is encouraging caucus goers to video their experiences and upload them. This will help expose any fraud.

    If any fraud does occur it can be swiftly exposed, maybe not as fast as we want but it should be doable.

    On the Biden situation this is what Hotline is reporting: “Joe Biden’s camp said “there will be no deal with any campaign” for supporters tonight (release). But many Biden supporters on the ground have indicated to Last Call! “that they’re all prepared with a second pick.”

  128. What makes me nervous are the kinds of stories that is posted on Taylor’s site. GOP shills who vote in the Dem caucus to be the anti-Hillary vote. They don’t care for Obama, but a win for him is a loss for Hillary and that’s their goal.

    That’s worries more than the student boarder-crossing.

  129. But many Biden supporters on the ground have indicated to Last Call! “that they’re all prepared with a second pick.”

    If I was a Biden or Richardson supporter, I, too, would second pick Obama. I’m not saying that’s their plan, but it just makes sense.

    A win in IA for Hill pretty much ends the game; a loss means the game continues in NH for Biden and Richardson.

    They have no chance in hell of winning the nomination, but at this point, every campaign is just thinking one state at a time.

  130. HillaryforTexas, the New York office said they had heard about it but the Iowa office had NOT!!!

  131. Biden, Dodd & Richardson to Iowans: Make your own decision
    by: Lynda Waddington
    Thursday (01/03) at 12:49 PM

    [Exclusive] — Contrary to news reports from state and national media, three of Iowa’s Democratic campaigns want their supporters to know that no blanket campaign directive has been issued, instructing supporters to throw support behind a different candidate during tonight’s caucus.

    “If Iowans are independent enough to have chosen me from the field of candidates, I’m quite sure they have the ability to make an independent second choice as well,” said Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd.

    The campaign for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, offered similar sentiments.

    “The rumor mill is hard at work,” said Olivia Alair, a campaign spokeswoman. “We are encouraging our supporters to stand tall and stand tough and have every reason to expect that they will.”

    Robert Becker, Iowa director of the Bill Richardson for President campaign, took particular offense with reports circulated this morning that his campaign was encouraging non-viable supporters to switch to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

    “Here we are the day of caucus and there are all these rumors about deals being made,” he said. “I’m just sick of it. We have not directed our supporters to caucus for anyone other than Bill Richardson.”

    “Robert Becker, Iowa director of the Bill Richardson for President campaign, took particular offense with reports circulated this morning that his campaign was encouraging non-viable supporters to switch to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

    “Here we are the day of caucus and there are all these rumors about deals being made,” he said. “I’m just sick of it. We have not directed our supporters to caucus for anyone other than Bill Richardson.”

  132. filbertsf, perhaps you are right, but Biden’s supporters value his experience and foreign policy knowledge. I won’t be surprised if our girl absorbs many of his supporters as well.

  133. Over and over today, MSNBC has predicted that 35 to 50 percent of Obama’s support is going to be from first time caucus goers. But the DMY model assumed 72 percent of his vote would be first time caucus goers. No one has noted this difference.

    Hillary’s own internal polling says that if the turn out is the traditional caucus goer, she wins; if there is a huge surge of new people, it’s Obama’s.

  134. TheRealist, thanks for the article. But you know what? What they say in public may be completely different from what their Precinct captains are telling supporters.

    Taylor Marsh has a new blog up about closed door dealings.

    Please just let this day be over.

  135. Disagree Filbertsf.

    Biden and Richardson supporters value experience so on an issue basis their pick should be Hillary.

    But putting that aside, if the goal of Biden/Richardson supporters is to keep the race alive, then the logical choice is Edwards. Obama has money, Edwards does not have money. An Edwards win hurts no one other than Obama.

    An Obama win would possibly hurt Richardson because it would mean that Richardson would be betting on a woman/african-american/latino race.

    Botton line: Edwards is so weak financially and organizationally nationally that he is a good parking lot for just about everyone. Obama is not a good parking lot.

  136. What is being reported is that Richardson will get votes from Obama in districts where Obama is plentiful. The idea is probably to hurt Edwards.

  137. 2) Did we forget that last night HillaryLandRocks stated that HRC’s campaign had something planned to surprise MJS’s out-of-state friends, but details couldn’t be released until 7pm tonight?

    What is this about???

  138. well is there a number to call in iowa about fraud. there has to be. this siinsane alhtough im sure the camp knows about this romney thing int he nyt

  139. Here is what I have discovered when researching IowaCubs, the man or woman who posted the comment about the Richardson precinct captain who allegedly struck a deal with the Obama precinct captain in Des Moines:

    IowaCubs has been trolling at MyDD for Obama the past few days. The user’s first comment dates 28 DEC 2007 at 5:53:55 pm.

    32) Re: How the Iowa caucuses work, part 7 (w/poll) [none / 0] Replies: 0
    posted by IowaCubs on 12/28/2007 05:53:55 PM EST
    attached to How the Iowa caucuses work, part 7 (w/poll)

    The user is clearly someone attempting to circulate a baseless rumor.

    I should add that IowaCubs’s name is somewhat revealing: ostensibly a resident of Iowa, this person is a CHICAGO Cubs fan. Perhaps they are in Iowa, and perhaps they have a Des Moines IP address. But I believe this person is a Chicago volunteer with a hotel IP address who is online circulating false rumors on behalf of the candidate for whom he or she is working.

    One can visit Taylor Marsh’s blog for information on IowaCubs’s comment at Iowa Independent.

    IowaCubs, a Chicago Cubs fan, is clearly an Obama volunteer from Chicago who is connected to a hotel server in DesMoines. He or she is spreading a false rumor on behalf of Obama, and this person deserves to be exposed.

  140. Those comments about the Repub women caucusing for Obama to hurt Hillary is no surprise. And Obama really thinks these people will support him in the GE? How naive.

  141. Kentucky, the rumor makes no sense. Why would anyone make a deal with Obama when they can make a deal with Edwards? There is no point to hurting Edwards.

    The only logic of such a strategy is if Richardson and his campaign are very stupid – which of course is always a surprising non-surprise.

  142. Obama is always for himeself. To defeat Clintons to get the name. The deal between BHO and Biden, BHO and Richardson is Biden or richardson get some votes from BHO where his votes are overflow in return.

  143. Molly,

    In Iowa, you do not have to prove residency. You simply have to claim residency that night. So, yes, you could show up and claim your sister’s residence as your own so you could caucus. Of course, you’d be committing voter fraud, and as there would undoubtedly be people there who know your sister, or who live near her, you would run the risk of getting busted. But I’m from Illinois, and before this year, I’ve never heard any rumblings along the line of Iowa’s caucuses being polluted by the citizens of other states. Iowa may need to look at changing their rules a bit and requiring registration earlier, or something like that.

    As for registering, the protection is, first and foremost, the US postal system – they do not deliver voter reg cards to residences that are not receiving mail regularly for that person. Meaning, if you want to register to vote at your cousin’s house in California, and the letter carrier sees your voter reg card but doesn’t get other mail for you, they won’t deliver it. It’ll bounce right back to the county and your name will be pulled off the rolls.

    Requiring ID’s to register to vote is typically a racist, classist move that eliminates the elderly poor (who traditionally vote Democratic) from being able to vote. In Georgia, when they began requiring IDs for registration, I discovered that some people lived over 70 miles from the nearest DMV. Getting the documents together and getting to the DMV is a very, very difficult task for many elderly people. Add to that the whole problem of waiting in line for hours, and the Dems are going to lose a lot of voters.

    Fraudulently registering to vote is actually a pretty difficult process. Because legally registering to vote is so easy, people assume it’s equally easy to register fraudulently. It isn’t. It’s almost impossible for a party to pull it off in numbers that could sway any election by more than a few votes in any given precinct. That may make a difference in a few elections, but that’s an awful lot of work to go to, and runs a huge risk, for a just a handful of votes.

    Dodd, Clinton and Biden have all sounded the alarms. Caucus captains will be on the look out.

    Everybody is worried about college students. The easiest way to find out if someone attends a particular college is to ask them the names of buildings on campus. Someone may well be familiar with the names of professors, but no one thinks to remember the names of the buildings ( a little tip from my private investigator days). There are going to be students supporting other candidates besides Obama in most caucuses. Those students are going to eagle eyed for anyone who doesn’t actually attend the school – and i guarantee you, they’ll be willing to challenge them. I have no idea what that process is in Iowa, but it’s not going to be a simple case of thousands of people sauntering in, claiming they’re from Iowa, and no one ever busting any of them or noting who they are. The supporters of ALL the other candidates are going to be on the look out for transplants.

  144. pulchritude, thanks for the rumor quashing.

    There is also the misinformation going around that Biden and Richardson have not squelched the rumor. This is untrue. Both campaigns have denied strongly and angrily that this is going on.

    Talking points memo, no friend of Hillary has this:

    The Times political blog is quoting anonymous sources claiming that there’s now a “deal” between Obama and Richardson in which the New Mexico governor will direct his supporters to caucus for Obama.

    But the Richardson camp is adamantly denying the report:

    Robert Becker, Iowa director of the Bill Richardson for President campaign, took particular offense with reports circulated this morning that his campaign was encouraging non-viable supporters to switch to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
    “Here we are the day of caucus and there are all these rumors about deals being made,” he said. “I’m just sick of it. We have not directed our supporters to caucus for anyone other than Bill Richardson.”

    The Obama camp is denying it, too.

    I’m gonna go out on a limb and suggest that what could actually be going on here is that the Obama people are merely planning an all-out push to win over Richardson voters, which is a natural part of the caucus process.”

  145. There are no deals. So sayeth the campaigns and I for one believe them. Biden and Richardson are making or breaking tonight. (Breaking is my bet.)

    To even hint to their supporters that they themselves think they might not be viable is to admit defeat in advance and would probably only serve to depress those supporters and have them stay at home.

    All rumors of deals stem from the devoted followers to the anointed One. They’re probably getting a tad bit worried now he won’t get all those toddlers out to caucus for him tonite.

  146. Hold on to your hats, grab your hankies. Here’s a huge surprise (NOT):

    Sen. Chris Dodd, who moved his family to Iowa in an effort to make a strong showing in the caucus, has told Fox News that he would be “going to Hartford tomorrow” if he doesn’t finish stronger than fourth place tonight, my colleague Martin Kady II reports.

    Dodd has had a successful fundraising run thanks to his chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee, which has opened the door to millions in contributions from the financial services industry, but he has been unable to crack into the upper tier among Democratic candidates.

    It’s not clear yet who Dodd will endorse if he drops out.

  147. I agree admin. Hurting BHO is the only strategy that makes sense for the 2nd tier. This has always been an anti-Hillary election.

    “The only logic of such a strategy is if Richardson and his campaign are very stupid – which of course is always a surprising non-surprise.”

    Agreed. While I can come up with a few strategies that might incorporate the desire for this scenario, Richardson’s campaign doesn’t appear to have the ability to do such maneuvering. I’d say he is trying to stay alive for a senate run at this point. He will need the Clinton’s to fundraise for him.

  148. Spot on Admin. If the second choice for the second tier is not Hillary, then logically speaking it should be Edwards. If their presinct captains are telling them Obama, then they are betraying the candidates they are working for, and playing into the hands of Republicans.

  149. Some pundit on AOL predicted Edwards first, Obama second and Hillary third. Not my favorite scenario, but I could live with an Edwards win.

  150. lou dobbs just claimed obama is running a populist campaign that appeals to the middle class. this is obviously motivated by his animus for hillary, for obama’s platform is antithetical to that of lou dobbs.

  151. From WaPo:
    — — —
    Biden rejected the idea outright in a statement released by his campaign in the early afternoon. “There are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign,” said Iowa state director Danny O’Brien. “We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own.”
    — — —

  152. But why is Dobbs now claiming Obama is a candidate who appeals to his viewers? I believe Dobbs is attempting to sabotage Hillary.

  153. Is everyone as jittery as I am???? I didn’t feel like this on Christmas or New Years eve. I can’t wait, and yet want it to be over at the same time. I’ve read everything, gone over every conspiracy theory and reviewed every permutation of possible finishes and the way that Big Media will spin them. I have a bottle of super expensive champagne that I failed to open Monday that I am chilling as I write this, in hopes that I’ll have cause to pop the cork. I also have a bottle of wine that I am going to start on as soon as I finish this. In truth, I could have started drinking at breakfast, I’m so hyper. I am so thankful for this community and the great folks (you too ADMIN!) who usually help keep me focused and sane. Tonight it’s going to take a little more than that…:)

  154. I am getting sick just waiting and waiting. Hey guys don’t forget that there is a Championship game tonight so all those college students will watch lol.

  155. One last point on this “deals” business. A deal with Biden and Richardson is illogical on the face of it. For instance, who would get priority, Biden or Richardson? In most of not all precincts Biden and Richardson will not be viable. Who would Obama then throw support to? Obama could not provide 15% to Biden and 15% to Richardson and remain viable himself.

  156. Jack Cafferty is a misogynistic douchebag, claiming a 3rd place finish in Iowa would do insurmountable harm to our girl. WHAT?! We are talking about a CLINTON. I want our girl to win for many MANY important reasons, but it would be such icing on the cake to wake up Cafferty, Russert and Tweety from their infantile wet dream of a Hillary defeat.

  157. I do have faith in Hillary’s team. What I am worried about is the stories I hear from MJS or those GOP women who cross-over to the Dem Caucus just to be anti-Hillary. Then all those closed-door deals.

    What campaign can overcome such obstacles?

  158. pulchritude, I think Lou Dobbs still has presidential ambitions or wants to help out his friends. So he wants the weakest dem nominee. I wish Hillary would get an opportunity to tell BHO that the only reason repugs vote for him is because they want the weakest dem candidate.

  159. Tucker Carlson is also a misogynistic douchebag. He just claimed to Axelrod that Ann Lewis said that the Clinton vs. BHO plan are not all that different. She did no such thing!!!

  160. I mean there is no other logical reason. BHO is acting as though it is a badge of honor that repugs are voting for him. They coul not be really republicans if they are voting for him unless they have an ulterior motive.

  161. Dobbs by his own admission is an advocacy journalist and in his mind this liberated him from the onererous obligation to be fair, so he can report only those facts which are supportive of his p.o.v. He is a man who can tell you all the problems but when you ask him for concrete solutions he becomes highly evasive. I have. He does. Obama as a populist? Delusional.

  162. kentucky… IMHO NBC needs to be sued for Libel. Although Richardson denied it F(T)ucker was saying that Richrdson asked his people to vote for Obama as theit second choice.

  163. good evening hillfans, i just woke up 6pm eastern. ready for tonite. good news about the realclear politics iowa with hillary within 1.6 points behind obama.

  164. It will be interesting to see how Big Media spins the results once Hillary wins tonight. If she does, it will invariably be downplayed; if (god forbid) BHO wins, it will be touted as a major victory, even if he wins by 1 or 2 points. Such bullsh*t.

  165. From NYT:
    — — —
    While all the cable news networks will be talking about the Iowa caucus results Thursday night, C-SPAN will be the only channel showing live coverage of actual caucuses.
    The network, best known for its gavel-to-gavel coverage of Congress, will simulcast a Democratic caucus on C-SPAN and a Republican caucus on C-SPAN 2 beginning at 8 p.m.

    — — —

  166. HillGuy, All the pundits of the big media have already said that it is all over if Hillary wins that includes even Tweety. They all agree that Hillary is the only one that could afford to loose Iowa.

  167. I think we all need to be prepared for everyone in the MSM claiming Hillary is toast if she doesn’t win Iowa. What I want to know is, why isn’t anyone talking about how Obama SHOULD do well there because it’s a neighboring state?

  168. clintondem, you are right; however, I am hard-pressed to believe that even in spite of a BHO loss in Iowa, Tweety will not find himself foaming at the mouth again at the prospect of Obama’s chances in NH.

  169. Paula, They have all agreed that Hillary is the only one that can afford to loose Iowa. I heard it on Harball, Fox and CNN analysis.

  170. The entire discussion of Hillary being toast if she finishes 3rd in Iowa is yet another machination of MSM, intended to influence less-informed voters. I know we shouldn’t pay too much attention to polls, but poll after poll shows Hillary’s support the strongest of any candidate. NH voters get mad when asked how they will be influenced by the results in Iowa. If anything, a Hillary loss in Iowa will galvanize her strong base of support in NH, and drive them out to the polls in droves.

  171. admin, he had a right to run but dodd had no buisness running. moving his family there was a stunt. i knew he was not going to make it to the connecticut primary feb 5th wich he was going to lose to hillary even if he clinged on for dear life to make it there.

  172. Another brilliant piece from Taylor Marsh.

    Says Marsh:
    If the 2004 turn out model replicates itself tonight, Clinton will likely win Iowa. That’s when you’ll see a collective heart attack from every media pundit found lying on the floor in full make-up, with Matthews’ having a little extra rouge than others. Some bloggers will offer spittle as posts.

  173. No matter what MSM has to say and slant the Iowa vote in an attempt to influence the NH vote, the truth is they will have only Friday and Monday to do it before the voting starts Sorry MSM not enough time to get your wish of an Obama NH win.

  174. Fox News major Garrett just said that the Clinton campaign has been seeing something in the past couple hours in their numbers that is looking good (“uptick”).

  175. An interesting piece from NYT. A caucus organizer is all worried and fretting about the masses of foodstuff the Clinton campaign has prepared and all the elderly people that the Clinton campaign is bussing in.

  176. fox news-just saw them saying hillary’s key advisors in the last 48 hours have had the best iowa internals they have had with her winning narrowly. we shall see. btw hillary’s people are already flying to nh…

  177. I am stunned. Matthews just asked Andrea Mitchell–“What is Bill doing, is he out handing out the money?” That is just sick.

  178. rjk1957, good point. Big Media keeps saying that if BHO wins Iowa, the short time between Iowa and NH would work in his favor. I completely disagree. HRC’s support in NH is so deeply entrenched that even additional rouge on the face of Tweety while fawning over BHO (should he win) won’t be enough to over take her in NH. Let’s hope McCain continues to grab those independent voters!

  179. Okay you cable news watching Hillarites. I know they have a penchant for being nasty to the Clintons, that’s why I’ve limited my exposure to all that muck.

    Take heart. It’s Caucus day. Most Iowans are coming home and going straight to the Caucus. They’re not even watching Matthews, Dobbs, or any of the other talking heads.

    The only people who are watching are tense people who aren’t even in Iowa.

  180. Why do you guys watch Chris Matthews? Seriously? Do you expect anything substantive come out of his mouth?

  181. “I am stunned. Matthews just asked Andrea Mitchell–”What is Bill doing, is he out handing out the money?” That is just sick.”

    That’s just so unprofessional. A lot of journalists now do not even bother to appear unbiased. US MSM has really fallen off the deep end. That level of bias is unthinkable in other countries.

  182. Go Hillfans in New Hampshire!

    Why would anybody worry about food at a caucus. Oh, I got it, maybe obama is scared of a food fight!

  183. Stop giving him ratings. Either was fox news or go to CNN. In this primary, Fox news (excluding sean hannity and fox and friends) has given the most fair coverage for Hillary of the three. Atleast give them those ratings. Chris Matthews is mouthing all this stuff just for ratings and you guys are giving it to him.

  184. Why would anybody worry about food at a caucus. Oh, I got it, maybe obama is scared of a food fight!


  185. yes dont watch tweety-why mae yourself more nervous. tune in a bit later. im going to a hillary watch party here in town. keep the faith

  186. From NYT’s live blogging:

    6:18 p.m. | Food Fight in Nevada When we arrive at the elementary school at 5:30 p.m., it’s empty except for a few kids still playing basketball in the gym, Ms. Johnson and Paul Johnson, her husband, and three volunteers for Mrs. Clinton.
    With the sandwiches.
    They and Ms. Johnson have reached a compromise: they can serve dinner just outside the caucus room but not in it.

    Food fight indeed! :-O

  187. I’m disappointed in not getting an report from the ground on the blogs. Did all of Obama’s legion of Chicago teenage volunteers arrive? What’s happening on the ground?

  188. The following is an excerp from Steve Clemons piece on huffingtonpost

    I think Hillary Clinton is going to be in this race for a long time, and may still win the primary. But one thing that should concern her team is the dynamic of an Edwards-Obama pairing, which is no where near happening yet.

    There has been some subtle, behind the scenes flirtation and episodic moments of rejection between the Edwards and Obama camp. One Edwards insider told me that several months ago, Edwards was basically sending signals that he would take Obama as a running mate if Obama took the VP position. According to this source, Obama’s emissaries flatly rejected the notion.

    More recently, this same source tells me that communication has remained open between the camps and that the “deal” (though I hesitate to call it that as I don’t believe anything has been formally arranged…but this is the word the source used) is to see who pulls first in the early primaries and who has dropped back. The suggestion from the Edwards campaign source is that Edwards would consider running in the No. 2 slot with Obama if Obama were dominating the early contests — and vice versa if Obama was trailing.

    I don’t have a second source for this information — but I trust the veracity of the comments made, general as they were.

    After the Philadelphia debate, I thought that there was a secret O/Edwards deal.

  189. 30 minutes until live caucus coverage on C-SPAN. Video footage of the Democratic Caucus room, which will be featured, is already quite full. Exciting!

  190. My friend just emailed me: “They just had the Iowa State Uni Campus Housing person on Fox who said they had made dorm space available for over 200 students to sleep there for the caucuses and it looks like ONLY 2 checked in. Right, Barack, I see your thousands of students are really turning up.”

  191. The CNN live video feed has the camera situated on BHO’s side of the room, and there are quite a bit of people. Wish they would pan to the side of the room with the Hillary signs so we can see our people!

  192. A college student for Hillary called in on CSPAN and said there were college students for Hillary as well as Obama at his site.

  193. Call in to C-SPAN from a Hillary supporter at his caucus location said big turnout for Hillary supporters. Also said quite a bit of college students. This caller said that a lot of the college students present are standing to caucus for Hillary.

  194. ADMIN,

    taylors sight says, its richardson who has a deal with obama, and the reason is because obama has so many votes, that he can spare some for richardson, and all richardson has to do is give up his people to vote obama for second choice…

    all they want is enough to give them the percentage to keep them in the race…
    now they wouldnt get any from je because he needs all he can get…
    first obamas campaign said that they had made a deal, but than a more senior rep for obama said, that they have given precinct captains the ability to be autonomous and make the decisions that are best for them at their sites…
    so basically not saying it came from the top, and it is legal…
    now richardson never has come out and spoken on the subject…
    either taylor has her head up her ass, or she is on to something!!!


  195. From CNN

    NEW YORK (CNN) — Sen. Hillary Clinton has taken an early lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, even before voters make their voices heard in the first-in-the-nation presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire

    According to a CNN survey, Clinton leads the race in endorsements from so-called “superdelegates,” a group of party officials and insiders who have a guaranteed vote at the presidential nominating convention in Denver later this summer.

    On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the most support of the few delegates surveyed who said they have made up their mind on who they’ll vote for.

    Clinton of New York leads the delegate race as of Thursday, with support from 154 superdelegates, more than three times the number supporting her nearest rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

    Obama has the support of 50 superdelegates, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has the backing of 33 superdelegates. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd have won the support of 19 and 17 superdelegates, respectively, while Delaware Sen. Joe Biden has eight superdelegates in his column.

    Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has the support of one superdelegate — himself. All sitting Democratic governors, U.S. senators and U.S. representatives are all automatic superdelegates, which means that Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich, Obama and Richardson each began the race for delegates with at least one vote — if they cast it for themselves.

    Democratic superdelegates make up about 800 votes of the just more than 2,000 delegate votes needed to clinch the presidential nomination at their convention.

  196. oh and admin,

    i dont put it past richarson to do something sleazy, sorry but he wants to be somebody real bad!

    i totally believe it…
    and i think if obama does this, we should have this on film, they already have some of obamas pricinct captains on record saying they made this deal…

    if ob does this, than what a great campain add for hillary for the feb super tuesday…

    how obama lost his groove….

  197. I know to take entrance polls with a grain of salt, but Wolf Blitzer just announced entrance polls showing Hillary and BHO tied, Edwards behind.

  198. MSNBC Entrance Polling: Clinton and Obama Lead Dems
    by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:05:07 PM EST

    For whatever it’s worth, that’s what the tease on Countdown was. According to Marc Ambinder, CBS News is reporting the same thing — Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama leading the entrance polling, with John Edwards trailing.

    Update [2008-1-3 20:10:59 by Jonathan Singer]: I’m hearing some conflicting reports, but early numbers (and I stress early) that just crossed my desk look like this:

    Clinton 36
    Obama 31
    Edwards 19
    Richardson 5
    Huckabee 31
    Romney 23
    Thompson 15
    McCain 12
    Paul 9

    I have not been able to confirm these numbers, so please take with a big grain of salt…

  199. even if it’s a grain of salt, I take it with much happiness. I am a nervous nelly for our girl, but little positive grains are lovely to hear. Thanks mieyingsu.

  200. Actual Results Thread
    by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:16:17 PM EST

    Because these actually matter…


    Again, these are also very early numbers.

    Permalink :: Comment

  201. I am praying that WOMEN will come out in unbelievable numbers for Our Hillary!!!! I don’t understand WHY every woman wouldn’t want to vote for Hillary!!!!

    Last election, 22 million single women did not vote at all!! IF HALF OF THOSE VOTE FOR HILLARY, SHE WOULD WIN BY A LANDSLIDE!!

  202. Senator John Edwards : 37.87%
    Senator Hillary Clinton : 34.61%
    Senator Barack Obama : 25.37%
    Governor Bill Richardson : 1.08%
    Senator Joe Biden : 1.08%
    Precincts Reporting: 24 of 1781

    by agpc on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:21:48 PM EST

  203. I heard on CNN that around 60% of the caucusers are women, and only about 20% Independents showed up? I hope that is true!

  204. Entrance polls showing 20% of dem caucus goers are independents. As ra1029 stated, 30% or higher independent voters favors BHO. These are good numbers for our girl.

  205. I just came back from our hillary watch party. we are quite angry. i wil write mroe later. we do hope the campaign plans some staff changes.

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