Hillary New Year

Happy New Year. From reading the hundreds of comments in the previous post, it looks like there’s quite a party been going on. Even Kostner paid a visit and new friends dropped by too.

We’re loathe to interrupt the New Year’s comment party in the previous post but wanted to wish everyone a Hillary New Year and the end of the repulsive Bush era.

Aside from Obama’s continuing hostility towards unions, Democrats, and Bush type campaign and Republican talking points, most of the comments were about the polling situation in Iowa, particulary the Des Moines Register poll.

In light of the excellent campaign Hillary has run the past few weeks – akin to some fine Champagne – the Des Moines Register hit like bad moonshine. It was good to see in the comments how the DMR “moonshine”, although initially causing some indigestion, did not give anyone permanent brain damage. The comments did a darn good job of collective analysis.

Mark Penn did a quick analysis of the Des Moines Register poll too, which we will reproduce below. But for us, this is what matters:

What a day. Drove down to Atlantic to do publicity for Bill’s Atlantic event. Went over to the Cass Community Center to help manage it — had 500 sign-ins — it was a big success. I love Iowans — so friendly, and they forgive what they call my “east coast accent.” Atlantic, IA turned out to hear BC!

Tomorrow I’ll be in Council Bluffs for the Hillary event at MidAmerica Center. Can’t wait!

Was interviewed a bit by Newsday, which is a NY based news source.

To emjay: really loving Loess scenery. Western IA has stepped plains with a density second only to regions in China. I’m loving every minute of my stay here.

I’ve got lots of pics but my card reader isn’t working w/ the laptop I brought with me — will probably have them to share once I get home.

And this:

Remember folks, this is a marathon, and whatever happens Thursday there are lots of miles yet to run–with Hillary having committed support at significant levels in states beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and S. Carolina. I’m convinced that the lion’s share of that support isn’t the type that will dissolve even if (and I’m not predicting this) 3 of the first 4 contests are lost. Remember, BO and JE have built-in advantages in Iowa, and Hill is still competitve.

Let’s stay positive and not get away from the long-term game plan.

And this:

ALCINA, I’m in until we get this woman in the white house. I just got a call from the campaign and depending if they can put me up or not, I’ll be in NH as soon as possible, and definately for the primary

And this:

of course we’ll fight… Make no mistake it’s now a fight between a true competent woman leader and a puppet propped up by Karl Rove.

And this:

I’m going to New Hampshire Friday to Weds to help out and I’m stoked.

And I just wanted to not to worry and to refer everyone to this story:

http://www.storyarts.org/library/aesops/stories/tortoise.html

And this:

… now is the time to lend support to those of us in the field and stand with us regardless of the outcome. we need a battle cry, not some wimpy-cry-baby reaction to a bunch of poll numbers. get over it, boys and girls. let’s put our heads and hearts together and move on to victory.

And this, which we heartily endorse:

Hooray for Representative Donald Payne of New Jersey, for all y’all workin’ hard and caucusing in Iowa and all the gang goin’ up to New Hampshire! Wish I could join y’all…hoorays all around. We’ll meet at Hills inauguration! Hooray and Happy New Year!

* * *

Here is Mark Penn’s take on the state of the race:

Two new Iowa polls are out today. In the Zogby poll, it’s Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25. In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, Hillary leads with 33 percent, Obama 31, Edwards 22.

*****

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22

Zogby
, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26

Mason-Dixon
, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22

Research 2000
, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29

ARG
, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24

So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

Share

331 thoughts on “Hillary New Year

  1. MJ

    I can’t quickly find my comment, but am sure I used the word “separates” or something similar, not “includes” or something similar.

  2. Admin

    Did you see my question about “too much CPU” at bottom of last thread?

    I just can’t figure out what I did wrong.

    Thank you

  3. My prediction:

    1) Hillary
    2) Edwards
    3) Obama

    As others have noted (e.g. CNN, H44), the undecideds will have a significant weight, and I anticipate these are primarily Hillary supporters who don’t want at the moment to let others know their choice.

    My gut feeling is that Iowans know who is ready to be a leader from day one, and who has the proven ability to beat the Republicans. Mature people and the leaders they choose don’t have to announce out loud their preferences. Like the old saying goes, “Shallow brooks are noisy.”

  4. emjay..sometimes if you post to quick it will say that..and wait 60 sec before you post again…….it says that low cpu its there server… not your server or your memory in your pc…your pc is fine..because of everyone here admin had over 550 some post on the last topic

  5. yes, if you are redirected to another site from the hosting company, which is saying too much bandwidth is used or the like, it’s the site – it just gets a lot of traffic at certain moments and temporarily no one is able to access. i have noticed before and was about to email admin but by the time i wrote the message the site was working fine again, usually this only happens for a few minutes i see. 🙂

  6. Russert was on NBC Nightly News (is his head getting even larger ?). Brian Williams said the DMR poll was controversial because it over-sampled Independents, but Russert blew it off and claimed that it was merely indicating who was going to show up to caucus. Move along folks, nuthin’ to see.

    Right, the normal turnout is 80% or more Democrats, but now it will only be 55% ?

    I’ll believe it when I see.

  7. Local news, both TV and radio, playing up Hill had to add an overflow room to an appearance today and the turnout was fab.

    Where was that? Haven’t had time to read back to catch up cause I’m still doing catchup in the kitchen fron this morning.

    Just got a call> Hillary is calling us @6:30 CST
    . Let you know more later.

  8. Even Pat Buchanan said the other day on MORNING JOE that he thought Hillary’s numbers in the polls were A LOT HIGHER than have been showing! He has predicted she will be the nominee.

    CNN has said and said again today that although Dems “trust and like” Obama the best with their heart, their heads know that Hillary is the most “experienced and electable candidate.” Isn’t that what matters?? Who is experience and who is electable??? I just don’t want fools to vote for Obama and he wins the nomination only to lose in the general election. And I KNOW he would and probably would want him to!!

    For people who dislike Obama as much as I do, if he were the nominee, would you vote for him??? I WOULD NOT!!! If Bloomberg my mayor here in New York got in the race, I would vote for him or I WILL JUST WRITE IN HILLARY’S NAME!!!!

  9. Great to have found more kindred spirits…just want to emphasize that all of us Hillary supporters have to mobilize and push back as much as we can on the Hillary haters and critics…it has been a shock to see so many ‘progressive men’ go after her…we cannot let these daily attacks go unchallenged…whether it is a TV show, radio show or some of these insane, immature and rude statements that are on the blogs…all of us have to fight back with the facts in Hillary’s defense…maybe use the Reliable Sources and Dana Milbank info on the unfairness and venom in the media that is after Hillary or call in on one of these radio shows, such as Ed Shultz, who is dedicating his show daily to misrepresenting and hurting not only Hillary’s campaign but actively trying to turn people against her even if she is the Democratic nominee…we just cannot let the critics frame, define and demonize her…some of the ‘progressive men’ are starting to see the light as their hero worship for others wanes and Bill Clinton has been phenomenal…I have sent the link of his New Year’s Eve High School speech to many of Hillary’s ‘progressive’ critics to remind them what a real progressive cares about and is motivated to accomplish (not to mention the only Democratic team that has given us TWO successful Democratic presidencies in our lifetime)…Bill explains Hillary’s whole campaign and the experience and temperament she brings in simple, understandable, organized and consequential words and ideas and makes it relevant to ordinary people’s lives…we have to start pounding on the idea that change and experience are not mutually exclusive…a smart woman can bring experience and produce positive change…we have to convince people that not everyone dislikes (or hates) Hillary and that in fact she is really liked and admired by so many…it sounds so simple and basic but the media manipulation can take a big psychological toll and brainwash people or make them feel afraid to say the do like her, and we know that people who think they do not like her actually find they do when they have had a chance to meet or listen to her for themselves…they need to hear more POSITIVE from our side to counteract the negative…Happy 2008…we are going to win and make history together…

  10. I am watching PBS and their coverage is excellent. They explained the metodology of the DMR poll. Judy woodruff did a great job she interviewed the DMR pollster.

  11. Always for Hillary: I will NOT hold my nose and vote for BHO if he is the nominee. I cannot do that in good conscience because I do not trust his judgment. If it’s between McCain and BHO, I’m tempted to vote McCain but Supreme Court nominations hold me back … If Bloomberg were in and BHO was the (D) nominee, I’d likewise vote Bloomberg or not vote for President at all. Sad but true.

  12. CBS News reporting that Kucinich is telling his supporters that if he does not meet the threshold at the caucus, they should go with Obama. They said it was not an endorsement, just a recommendation.

  13. LawSchoolDem, You are not alone even I can not vote for him. I am from Illinois an I have voted for him against Alan keyes. In good conscious I can not vote for him. I might vote for a third party or jut not vote.

  14. Precinct Capt call: 15 minute delay while they get additional participants on …..please stay online”. We were told last Sun nite was last call.

    Hmmmmm.

  15. Yay! I was quoted. I’m pretty excited about New Hampshire and you know, we’re actually in a really good spot. Remember a few weeks back we had that awful AWFUL week and then the DMR endorsement turned it all around; the way I see it, the poll today was just a humbling situation that just shows us we are still climbing up the mountain. I think it’s good to not be over confident and remember we have to keep working to make change happen like HRC says.

    This quote puts Obama in perspective for me:

    “I never saw a pessimistic general win a battle.”

    Hope? What hope?

  16. I read this on Politico:

    David Plouffe celebrates (though I hear the Obama Iowa campaign has been told, internally, to ignore the numbers.

    I think they know the truth.

  17. FYI, When that ARG poll showed Hillary up 14 in Iowa, did they celebrate? No, they ignored it. All they’ve said is, the race is close and HRC has momentum.

  18. F(h)luffington post is now attacking Majic johnson for supporting Hillary. They are accusing him of a financial motive. How pathetic???

  19. Phil Singer- asst communications dir. Policy points, Hill’s strengths, Ames turnout was double the # expected, Stakes (National and international, are big, Hill’s strengths are big) We need the best person, she is that person. Poll results= what we are all talking about.

    New endorsements- told you abt Sen Maria Cantwell last night.

    Another 10,000 doors each day last 2 days.

    550 people out today in the cold, on a holiday, knocking on doors. (Thanx Hill4Rox)

  20. Interesting article by Richard Cohen about Obama, looks like Oprah may have found another James Frey

    January 01, 2008
    Obama’s Trouble With The Truth
    By Richard Cohen

    John Edwards lied about the cost of his haircuts. Fred Thompson lied about lobbying for a pro-choice outfit. John McCain insists that the U.S. was founded as a “Christian nation.” Mitt Romney concocted the story about how his father marched with Martin Luther King Jr. And Rudy Giuliani is one-man fib machine — everything from why he had to provide police protection for his then-mistress to the cure rates for prostate cancer in Britain. Yet it is something Barack Obama said that bothers me most of all because Obama is a new kind of politician. He is supposed to be coolly authentic.

    What concerns me is the lie or fib or misstatement — call it what you want — that involves Obama’s assertion that more young black males are in prison than in college. It is a shocking statistic — and it is wrong. But when The Washington Post’s lonesome but formidable truth squad, Michael Dobbs, brought this to the attention of the Obama campaign, he not only got the brush-off but the assertion was later repeated.

    Auto Insurance
    compare competing quotes, quickly

    ZIP code where you park at night.
    Do you currently have auto insurance? YesNo
    Have you had your US driver’s license for more than 3 years? YesNo
    Has any driver in your household had 2 or more accidents or moving violations in the last 3 years? YesNo

    Powered by: Insweb.com

    You can appreciate the usefulness of this false claim. It says something compelling about the plight of young, black males that is essentially true — their condition amounts to a calamity and something has to be done. But this particular comparison is wrong, and Obama must know it by now. Ought to be true is not the same as true.

    After all, it ought to be true that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. It ought to be true that he had ties with Osama bin Laden. It ought to be true that aluminum tubes were intended for a nuclear weapons program and it ought to be true, really, that none of this mattered since what mattered most of all was a larger truth: Saddam had to go and the Middle East had to be urban renewed for the sake of democracy.

    In a recent provocative essay for The New Republic’s Web site, Princeton historian Sean Wilentz coined the phrase “the delusional style in American punditry.” He applied it to Obama’s fans in the American press. His argument is that certain journalists are so enthralled by the sheer Obamaness of Obama that they are willing to overlook everything they know about the fundamental value of experience.

    In this regard, Wilentz cites a Boston Globe editorial that used Obama’s memoir “Dreams From My Father” to extol Obama’s real-life experiences. Wilentz is not persuaded. To him, the book is “not exactly a portrait of sterling honesty or authenticity.”

    I and others have written that Obama — as he himself says in the introduction — invented composite characters and altered chronology. But as The Chicago Tribune also reported, some of the events Obama passionately details seem not to have happened at all. Maybe his memory played tricks on him. Mine sure does.

    But I am not running for president. And if I were, I’d pay particular attention to the truth — to the nagging facts that sometimes get in the way of a good story. After all, it is not only Iraq that has been destroyed in the last several years — so has whatever trust the American people still had in their government. I have been at this game a long time, but for sheer manipulation of the facts, for a fudging of the truth, for the occasional bald lie, the Bush administration takes the cake. Cheney and truth cannot be found in the same sentence.

    So the cavalier dismissal of Dobbs, the Post’s truth-hunter, is troubling. Since he writes that the Obama campaign would not comment, it is reasonable to assume that it doesn’t give a damn — that this is a little matter and the candidate is engaged in something grand. The phony statistic is, in its way, like a composite. There’s a larger truth here, get it?

    No. When John McCain sticks to his insistence that the Constitution established the United States as a “Christian nation,” I don’t like it, but I know McCain and I know his character. He has a record in public life going back, essentially, to 1967 when he was shot down over Vietnam and repeatedly tortured by his captors. Back in 2000, I might have gotten a bit “delusional” over him, but I had my reasons.

    I am a bit enamored with Obama as well. But the man’s public record is thin and the glow from him is distracting and my intuition tells me that sometimes intuition is no substitute for experience. So, I’ll sit back and watch some more — and wait to see if Obama or anyone in his campaign calls back Dobbs and corrects the record. “Facts are stubborn things,” John Adams once said. So, to our regret, we keep learning the hard way.

  21. From WaPo “The Trail” in Iowa:

    Edwards advisers report that, in their nightly calls, half of the undecided voters are breaking their way, with the rest splitting slightly more for Clinton than Obama. The Obama campaign believes that a big turnout on Thursday would turn those Register numbers into reality.

    Clinton’s campaign has sampled and modeled the potential electorate to the point that they have begun to knock off their calculations voters who say they support Clinton but who the campaign doubts will actually show up on Thursday night.

    With all due respect to the fierce competition – but in these three sentences there is no question that Hillary’s campaign comes off as the shrewdest, most experienced and most professionally organized. No blustering, no nonsense, just hard work and a steady realistic attitude.

    Hill Will Win!!!

  22. Emjay, There’s a N.Y. Times blog entry on Hillary’s Ames appearance. She told a bunch of jokes and seemed like she was having fun.

  23. the 10 reasons for standing for Clinton on caucus night,

    our special guest is Hillary- she’s in Council Bluffs (standing next to HillaryLandRocks, I hope!)

  24. I’m glad to see there are others who would not vote for Obama if he were the nominee (I really DOUBT he will be!!). I will not and cannot vote for people anymore just “because” they are not a Republican or the lesser of two evils. I will not. As I said I would write in Hillary’s name. My sister and others have said I would be throwing away my vote. To me it would be a matter of principle and being able to live with myself!

  25. No matter what happens in Iowa, I KNOW Hillary has the national support and momentum to go all the way!!! She will win the nomination!! From my mouth to God’s ears!!!

  26. Lawshooldmen: you are right.

    How can we criticize our Republican friends for standing by a man who was not up to the job of president and then do the same thing ourselves by supporting Obama? The only difference I see is Bush has his head in the ground, whereas Obama would have his head in the clouds.

    At some point, surely the interests of the country must prevail all other considerations, including party loyalty. And, I would not want to give the candidate of Russert and Matthews my vote–under any conceivable circumstances.

    Fortunately, we will not be forced to choose between pary and country because Hillary will be the candidate of the Democratic Party.

    What Barry does at that point is anyone’s guess. As I have said before, I believe that in that case he would go independent.

  27. Isn’t Thursday the national championship game? All these young voters/college students will be watching the game I hope lol.

  28. Just read on CNN that Obama camp is arranging babysitter services for his supporters on caucus night…. that sounds pretty dangerous to me.

  29. wbboie…Obama would have his head in the clouds.,im laughing…is he figuring out how to talk and live hope or mumbo jumbo how to be a liar,..in those clouds,.i say mumbo jumbo liar..

  30. do they do background checks on those people..babysitting im sure hillary would..and not so sure about him..

  31. I wonder if not the children that need the babysitting, Obama’s babysitters and Obama’s presumed caucus goers are all of about the same age.

  32. Their numbers jibe with the RCP averages; C-31.3 OB-27.8 JE-17.3

    (Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Hillary Rodham Clinton is leading the United States presidential race among Democratic Party supporters in the Granite State, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 35.4 per cent of decided voters would support the New York senator in this month’s primary.

    Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 31.5 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 19.6 per cent, followed by New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 6.5 per cent, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3.1 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden also with 3.1 per cent, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd with 0.5 per cent.”

    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/29048/newhampshire_primary_dem_2008_jan01

  33. turn out is the key in this race. While we stay positive, we need to work harder and don’t underestimate the Chicago machine which had a reputation that can turn dead to votes.

  34. Hmmm… Says Taegan Goddard:


    Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Iowa that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading the Democratic presidential race with 32% support, followed by John Edwards at 29% and Sen. Hillary Clinton at 27%.

    On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads with 30%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 28%; Sen. John McCain at 16% and Fred Thompson at 13%.

    Like other polls we’ve seen in the last week, both races are essentially statistical ties.

  35. I find this in politico.com

    ‘And Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll for The Des Moines Register, was already finding problems for Hillary back then.

    “Her negatives are so negative,” Selzer told a reporter. ‘

    no wonder she was willing to use a aggresive turn out model for the DMR poll. I can’t help but to think she had a agenda behind the poll.

  36. Turnout, turnout, turnout baby..

    Fox news reported that 2004 Kerry’s deputy campaign manager Steve Elmendorf, Harold Ickes and many others will be working in different counties and precincts in Iowa literrally driving people to the polls in the campaign vehicles. They are making sure to get every possible caucus goer supporting Hillary to the precinct for caucusing. We can see how much emphasis her team is placing on the ground game on that day making sure they can bring almost everyone supporting her to the caucus.

    I heard even Obama camp is pulling all stops.

  37. just on a light note – I just received my xmas gift from my little sisters – it’s a hip, HILLARY IS MY HOMEGIRL t-shirt with picture of Hillary. This makes me happy. Now I have to lose the holiday love handles to model it, Hillary will win the Primary and all will be perfect.

  38. I think Hillary should focus more on NH and SC. I would love to stay positive about IA, but…

    IA is just one state if they make it so. If everyone continues to allow the media narrative to be that IA is Hillary’s do or die, she’s going to have a very difficult time recovering if she happens to come in 3rd or a distant 2nd.

  39. Paula…thanks for the welcome

    Ra1029…I have confidence in Hillary’s team in Iowa…I have heard that the Emily’s List gang is helping and everyone knows how important a good showing is so between Bill and Hill I believe they will do everything humanely possible…btw, in this process will Hill and Bill actually be there in person to entice voters?

  40. thank you meiyingsu…you made my day with this one! lol 🙂

    don’t underestimate the Chicago machine which had a reputation that can turn dead to votes

  41. I think Hillary should focus more on NH and SC. I would love to stay positive about IA, but…

    I think her campaign will fight every state till it is time for people to either voter or caucus. They are not giving anything easily to her opponents. Win or loose her team will fight till the end in each state.

  42. CJ

    Hill said she was calling from Council Bluffs-may have been in car on way to somewhere else. That’s happened before.

  43. Remember, Obama should win Iowa because it’s a neighboring state. And Edwards has practically lived there since ’04. I have full confidence in her campaign organization doing everything possible to maximize turnout.

  44. I think that it will be important if BO wins Iowa-which I’m no way conceding-for the campaign to respectfully raise the question whether it’s ok to win an Iowa Democratic caucus by wrangling in independents and republicans, thus winning the victory by selling your soul as a democrat. Also, whether it violates the spirit of a fair caucus to haul in out-of-state students, etc. even if this is technically legal.

    Without appearing to be whining, making folks who have devoted their lives to this party aware of this kind of “the end justifies the means” approach will be important as we move to middle innings of this race where the meat of Hillary’s electoral lineup awaits.

  45. I heard the DMR poll woman Ann Selzer on NPR, Newshour w/ Jim Lehrer. She sounded very defensive and kept saying Obama will win (instead of saying he is up in the polls or something to that effect). She kept referring to her data and not really adding substance about either the method or the result. She said even if we don’t take their turnout model, Obama would still win (perhaps contradicting Yepsen’s analysis. Judy woodruff could have pushed her to explain the difference but she did not. Something is off with that pollster.

  46. The controversial DMR poll has definitely slowed the Hillary Momentum. I have no doubt Hillary will win and BHO will come to the third or fouth if DMR poll was reasonable. Now we just have to wait and see.

  47. filbert

    I have not heard anyone w/ half a political brain say anything about do-or-die for Hillary in Iowa. And there are plenty around who could if they wanted to (2000+ rental cars will be returned to Des Moines agencies by Sunday noon–good news for anyone needing a car to go to New Ham.

    Hillary herself points out in National and local interviews that when she started here she was in single digits and has no plans except to go from here to NH, then SC and beyond.

    She adds, every time, how wonderful it is to meet the individuals face to face to whom this campaign, and election are so important, those for whom the stakes are so high.

    Even w/o a big win, this campaign, along w/ New Ham is the bedrock of a successful national effort.

    I would consider it a personal favor if you would help Iowans and New Ham citizens focus on Hillary’s vision.

    Thank you.
    Let’s all keep our eye on the prize, not the cracker jacks boxes along the way.

  48. You know what guys, don’t worry. I hope we will win Iowa. But Hillary trying her best will mean something to voters. I really believe that because Dem’s want Hillary to work for the nomination. They don’t want a coronation. Hillary’s special. She’s not your everyday politician and this isn’t your everyday primary. She may lose a few early battles, but she’s finally found her stride. Giving people living examples of instances where she was a change agent. Getting it right about Pakistan. Softening her image and increasing her trust level. She’s in this for the long run, and she will win. You just have to keep working and keep believing. That’s what it will take.

  49. I know our girl will come through for us tomorrow! I am sending positive thoughts to everyone able to campaign with the Senator. And Teresa Vilmain was on a Fox News package earlier this afternoon talking about HRC offering baby sitting services and shovelers to shovel snow, etc. To add to more strength to our conviction read this story about Vilmain here: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311762,00.html Go team HRC go. We cannot lose our resolve and we need to remain focused on our goal … Madame President.

  50. In a way it is good thing what DMR poll did. It put out a possibility that a 55/40/5 model turnout could be real in this caucus. It is better that Hillary’s team were made aware of this possibility once considered remote could be real. That means they need to redouble their effort to drive every possible caucus goer of theirs to their respective precincts. Meanwhile, it also puts pressure on Obama’s team to deliver such a turnout.

  51. I agree with mj and Emjay. Putting her through this grueling process in Iowa and NH will only improve her as a politician going into the general. Her stump speeches now are much more smoother than when she first started. It will only make her that much more better prepared in the general. It also gives her an opportunity to crank up her campaign to full gear and could work like a trial run to make sure all engines of her campaign are working properly and efficiently.

  52. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS/80101016

    Clinton Door Knockers Hit the Streets

    It’s thousands and thousands and thousands of people, he said. We’ve found that phones just aren’ working any more. Everyone’s connection rate over the phone is really low. People are telling us they’re getting 10 and 15 calls a night.

    In one region of Iowa, Iowans who are undecided are getting back-to-back door knocks.

    A Clinton person would go to the door and then a (Barack) Obama person would go to the door, Carson said.

    Over 60 percent of the Clinton campaign’s 1s and 2s have never caucused before. They believe their list of strong supporters is longer than the campaigns of Obama and John Edwards. As far as we can tell, it’s way more than everyone else, Carson said.

    The Clinton campaign has ideas for counteracting the flake rate – flaking means blowing off the caucus. They are arranging for rides and catering food at the sites. If they notice a supporter isn�t there, they’ll go pick him or her up, officials said.

    Clinton’s campaign has rented SUVs to make sure volunteers can get through any snow that falls Thursday night.

  53. no sandwiches, no door knockers, no SUVs here or in next county either.

    we’re doing it the old fashioned way.

  54. A Clinton person would go to the door and then a (Barack) Obama person would go to the door, Carson said.

    I can just imagine if I say I am undecided that I could have a persons from Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Richardson, Gravel, McCain, Rudy, Mitt, Huck, Hunter, Tancredo, and Fred’s team all waiting one behind the other outside my door to have an opportunity to speak to me and convince me. That will pretty much take up my whole evening, isn’t it?

    🙂

  55. PM, here is another response by Ann Selzer the DMR pollster explaining her poll results:

    “J. Ann Selzer, president of the firm Selzer & Co., which polls for The Des Moines Register, said the poll didn’t oversample independents or employ any sort of a new model.

    We used the same method we used in 2004 to define likely caucusgoers, Selzer said. And, yes, we have more independents than in 2004, and more than in our past polls in 2007. Its something we worry about, along with many other things.

    Selzer weighted the results to look like the proportion of party participants in 2004 and Clinton would’ve won, she said.

    She said: “It is true, Senator Clinton leads with Democrats. It is also true that other campaigns have courted independents.”

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS09/80101001/-1/2006_primary

    This is really a sit-and-wait time for pollsters, Selzer said.”

  56. AmericanGal:

    I wouldn’t blame Ann Selzer. Now Clinton team can plan on a 55/40/5 turnout and see how to win under those circumstances while Obama team is forced to plan on delivering such a turnout.

  57. Here’s an interesting Obama quote. I wonder what the “it” is he is referring to–I’m probably reading too much into it but is he referring to his plan of appealing to Independents and Republicans over Democrats?

    “It looks like it might work,” Obama told a cheering rally in this western Iowa city, two days before Iowans launch the state-by-state nominating contests that will pick Republican and Democratic nominees for the White House race. It looks like we just might do this thing — to the surprise of many.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0160415220080101?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true

  58. The bottom line friends, is that Hillary is the adult in this group…regardless of how her and generation boomers regarding being ‘mature’ has been dissed in a rather disrespectful and unchivalrous way by Obama, Hillary is the adult and she is married to the 21st century Ambassador to the World…loyal, faithful and true Democrats will come to their senses and would be fools to pass up this amazing fortuitous opportunity of electing Hillary as the First Female President of the USA and her beloved husband, our former Democratically twice-elected President, her husband, Bill back at the helm and guiding the country forward in a positive direction once again…and for good measure…I truly believe this is Hillary’s destiny…she is the right woman at the right time at the beginning of the 21st century…we cannot yet predict the outcome…life is so unpredictable…but there is no denying, as Democrats, we are on the right path with the right person with Hillary as our choice for President…she has unlimited potential to accomplish so much good for the USA and the world…we must use our positives to counter the negatives…Hillary can do it…

  59. CJ

    Re our girl’s schedule: she and BO had rallies at the SAME TIME, in Council Bluffs, in venues (Hill was at MidAmerica Center) close together. HillLandRocks mentioned it here last night. Don’t remember the time though. CB is an hour and 1/2 from here if you break speed laws, as is Des Moines if you don’t (triangulate that chickadees and you’ll have me nailed, almost)

    She was at Ames, very successfully if I heard right, 35 miles N of DSM, earlier today. Said she was calling from cb during call, that was about 7 pm.

    CJ, that may be TMI. Sorry. Have forgotten what all was in your question now, so was overdoing it trying to cover your points.

  60. HillLand hasn’t been on here, so maybe she was working the rally and we will get a detailed acct here later.

  61. meiyingsu, Since the DMR poll only came out last night I think it’s too early to say it slowed any momentum. And with the holiday, I wonder if many people don’t even know about it.

    However, I agree with ra1029 about it how it presents a worst-case scenario the campaign is now very much aware of.

  62. from first read-
    The Clinton campaign’s GOTV plan Posted: Tuesday, January 01, 2008 8:49 PM by Mark Murray
    Filed Under: 2008, Clinton

    From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
    COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — The Clinton campaign is planning to make “door or phone contact” with all of their top supporters across Iowa in the next two days before the caucuses.

    Those supporters — in caucus campaign parlance — are classified as Ones and Twos. (Ones are people who’ve signed a supporter card, and Twos are those who have pledged their support verbally. The ranking goes from One to Five, with Fives being people who would never support the candidate — even if he or she cured their child’s cancer, spokesman Jay Carson joked.)

    He said it was important for campaigns to stay in contact with supporters to ensure they still plan to caucus for their candidate. It’s especially true when a campaign is relying heavily on first-time caucus-goers. “Sixty percent of our Ones and Twos have never caucused before,” said Carson, who noted that was more than any other candidate, as far as they could tell. (Just asking, is Hillary’s camp playing the expectations game here?)

    Part of that get-out-the-vote effort will include “door knockers” for all the for “Ones and Twos” in the state. The nearly two-foot long pieces of thick paper — decorated with color photos on one side and print on the other — are designed to hang from door knobs.

    One side reads: “A new beginning for America starts with us!” and it includes a line from the Des Moines Register endorsement.

    The other side reminds people when and where to caucus, and includes the admonition: “I’m Iowa, the contest for the Democratic nomination is as close as it has ever been. If just one out of every three Hillary supporters decides not to participate in the Iowa caucuses, we won’t be successful. Hillary Clinton can provide the leadership and the new beginning America needs. But to do so, Hillary will need all of her supporters to join together at their local caucus locations.”

  63. emjay doesn’t look so dumb now, talking about all the indies in Iowa, does s/he?

    BTW I posted the up-to-date active voter registration numbers here earlier:

    d- 603000
    r- 575000
    i- 740000

  64. Montana Democrats vote for their choice in the June 3 primary election; Republicans will make their choice at Feb. 5 party caucuses.

    The poll also asked everyone whether they recognized the names of the top candidates from both parties, and whether they felt “favorable,” “unfavorable” or neutral about the candidates.

    The results were:

    Clinton had the support of 29 percent of the Democrats polled. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was second with 19 percent, while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois had 17 percent. All others polled in the single digits.

    After Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney and Thompson, no other Republican presidential candidate scored higher than

    5 percent, which was the total for U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a favorite of Libertarians and some conservative Republicans, polled at 4 percent.

    http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/01/02/news/mtregional/news07.txt

  65. clintondem99 I am not conceding Iowa at all. Someone mentioned above that it was good that Hillary was able to see the odds against her with the DMR’s polls. This way, she will know how to plan her next cause of action to bring those odds in her favor. She has to find out how to make up those 7 points seperating her and his holiness Obama Lama.

  66. thanks emjay yeah i was wondering because you said hlr so if she was with hillary then she might be on to tell us.crowd wise.yep been to cb you better not be speeding lol…you got that winding bridge to cb,i hate it.midamerica.yep…she should went to harveys lol..i know they rename it i have friends go there,what a waste.lost my 10 dollars.lol

  67. How come no news from Bill Clinton today? I know that he was campaigning in Iowa today. However, not much news about his campaign stops from the media.

  68. MJ

    # of caucus goers? didn’t live here, but an unreliable source told me 150 attended four yrs ago.

    driver/ride support? short answer is no. read previos notes earlier today.

    a friend and I are p/u 5 in 3 separate parts of the county ourselves, around 5 pm.

    If i learn at caucus site someone else needs a ride , I will manage someway, somehow.

  69. Good uluck, Emjay, and thanks again for your dedication. I hope you guys are ready to make your pitch to the Biden and Richardson caucusers when they don’t make 15%!

  70. ra1029 no no news about the big dog because he’s probably tearing the place up with his stump speeches and the media doesn’t want to air that so as not to give Hillary an advantage. But what you see is them reporting about a 9 year old who didn’t get an interview from Chelsea. The news stations were acting like it was breaking news or something.

  71. What I think will be funny is, remember how all these cable channels like Fox, MSNBC, and some others do these live car chases with police cars chasing some speeding vehicle all these television news helicopters chase them from the top and provide live coverage? Well, it will be good if Fox news and other cable channels track down some Illinois school buses bussing Obama high school supporters from Illinois and do a live coverage and live commentary from a helicopter following this school bus crossing into Iowa border. That would be fun, isn’t it? 🙂

  72. The Govenor should put up roadblocks and turn them back or tell them if they caucus they will have to pay Iowa state income tax.. if they have one.

  73. lol rjk1957 and ITA with you. I am getting so nervous. I just want this to be all over so I can breath again.

  74. AmericanGal, this response from Selzer seems more balanced. I did not mean to cast aspersions about her but just report my impression of what I heard on the radio — my husband felt the same way too about her (he will vote for Hillary but not as blinded as I am by that prospect). I try to be objective.

  75. AFP – 4 hours ago
    Paul Wykowski from Keokuk, eastern Iowa did not even vote for Bill Clinton, but said he was persuaded by his wife’s vow to change Washington from within…oh those people in keokuk are smart,thats not my family though,i look forward for her to win the keokuk area..

  76. Nina’s comment at the end of the football story is pissy. (sorry for the language)

    Bill did five one-hour stump speeches for HRC yesterday and four today? I’d take that as a loving gesture too.

    S-

    Bill will not be back at the helm, as you said. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be at the helm. I am not working my butt off for him. I am working my butt off for her.

  77. CJ, that headline of the article is effing rude. It’s a great picture. But, please, Hillary doesn’t have all this support among women because of Bill. It’s her. We support her.

  78. Emjay…you are absolutely correct and please do not misunderstand my sentiments…I am doing whatever I can in my power to get Hillary elected…as I said I am convinced she is the right woman at the right time to become our next President..I could not be more proud and supportive…I think you may know I meant how wonderful to have both of them back with Hillary at the helm…

  79. At what time (eastern) should we know the results of the caucus? Because of my support for Hillary this will be the first one I truly cannot wait to see.

  80. First some good news — I heard the numbers today on the conversion rates (people attending the events and deciding to caucus for Hillary) and they are very, very good.

    Went to the Council Bluffs event today. Tom Vilsack did the introductions — the mayor from Omaha NE was also in attendance. The three: Hillary, Chelsea and Dorothy Rodham were introduced together w/ great fanfare. Lots of people, yes, the partitions came down to open up a new section in the arena. A local Council Bluffs band got things started — I had to laugh when they did a cover of “Little Pink Houses” — I’m sure the Edwards folks were fuming. Speaking of which, they papered our cars w/ flyers for the Edwards event at 10 pm at his campaign office. 10 p.m.? I mean, it’s about -13 out there …

    Anyway, I’ve seen several HRC speeches — she’s really hitting her stride at this point. I liked that she went back to give some detail on her ‘early days’ — long overdue, IMO. It was a real crowd pleaser.

    The door knockers — yep, they’re long, very nicely done. We put stickers on them to indicate the precinct location. We’ll continue delivering them tomorrow, brrr.

  81. Comments on the food, etc.

    Here’s what I see — as we hit the last stretch, the most important people in all of this are Hillary’s precinct captains, not the campaign staff, not the volunteers, not even Hillary. They are the ones who really will be doing the rounding up, the phone calling etc. When you go to events in the smaller areas, esp, you see that it’s your precinct captains who know who everybody is — by 6:30 p.m., they’ll have all the power, and that’s who you should be rooting for.

  82. Hi Y’all, A big hooray to all you on the ground in Iowa. I want to pass along a little story. my big sis is an RN in a midwestern city bordering Iowa. She had a patient the other day…an elderly woman…96 years old. The only thing that sweet lady cared about was gettin’ home to Iowa so she could caucus for our girl. That’s the only thing she cared about. And she got better and as far as I know she’s back in Iowa. She doesn’t give a continental damn what anybody’s poll says; all she knows is that she’s standin for Hillary on caucus day.

    Everyone of us who is working on behalf of Hill remember, we are helping to carry the torch for all the good fights that Hillary is so passionate about and the fights that the people before her cared enough to work for, even to risk their lives for. She is smart enough to know that the fights today are just a remix of the fights of the past. Fundamentally, everything relates to inequality and inequity and I truly believe that Hillary is the only leader who is truly smart enough and has the moral authority to lead us back on the right path. The good news is, when she is President, I think we will be better as a country than we have ever been. And we have those days to look forward to.

    Keep fighting, keep working. Know that those of us who can’t be in Iowa would be there with you if we only could and that we are working hard in our own areas of the country. We love you for what you are doing. I said long time ago: don’t anybody ever underestimate the genius of a Clinton. Keep your eyes on the prize and forget polls and everybody else in the race and their respective fan clubs and just go for it. We will prevail, good people, we will prevail. At the end of the day, we got the best damn candidate I have seen in my lifetime. And we are so very lucky.

    Welcome S, hooray to you for joining us.

  83. HLR, thanks for the update, and it sounds great!

    mollyrichards, Iowa is just where she hit her stride and is working the bugs out. I think she can win Iowa, but regardless of what happens there, Hillary’s supporters are not whiny bandwagon babies. We will hold strong.

  84. hlr good job and emjay too and all of ya…

    hlr cold huh..lol//hope ya brought your warm warm clothes like 3 layers ..13 below here right now

  85. Thanks for the great info HillaryLandRocks! Keep up the fabulous work that you are doing, but do bundle up!

    As for the Edwards note, is he still doing that ‘marathon’ Iowa tour thing at all hours of the day? (Or did he finish that already?) Who would want to leave their warm house late at night to see any candidate – unless they were a one to begin with?

  86. Oh you betcha, HfT, for what I can tell Hillary IS hittin’ her stride and her timing is perfect. Her intuition is really good for that sort of thing and it looks like it’s all coming together. I heard her speak on CSPAn the other day and it’s amazing. She is really connecting to people. compared to some who seem to be talkin’ down to people. And you can see people really listening to her. I am so impressed by the thought that Iowans put into this…and the work. I swear I never fully got it till this year. No, Hill’s people are hardcore. I went to a small open house tonight with my Hill buttons on. And I recruited several people and got names of several more. Basically, they recruit themselves. They see my buttons and comment on them and I always take them off and give them to the new person as a sort of welcome present. Her base is solid and her folks are most certainly not whiny. That’s why I think her candidacy is more than just about winning President. It’s about changing this country fundamentally.

  87. mollyjrichards, thanks…and I could not agree with you more…and don’t worry we have her back…

    HillaryLandRocks…sounds very exciting…

  88. How nice. Hillary is planning to have sandwiches and refreshments available at the caucuses. That’s a really nice thing to do. Now someone at mydd is actually complaining, and some guy in Iowa is banning food from his county’s caucuses. Can you imagine what is wrong with these people that they have such sour grapes? No one votes for someone because they gave them an egg salad sandwich. This is just a nice gesture from Hillary.

  89. MJ, There is an old, actually an ancient saying: If you feed them, they will come. I was told this sayin’ from a Native American lady in the southeast many years ago. It’s a way of helpin’ people out and food builds community and good will, too. And, that’s how southerners in general do things: Bring food. I think it is a great gesture and I’ve heard of other caucuses where food is served. So there. In Huey Long’s day in Louisiana it was more go to the bars first and then go vote, but that was a different story. It IS a great gesture by Hillary.

  90. She’s not thinking people will come caucus for free food. 🙂 No one would go through the caucus process for a wrap sandwich. She’s just trying to do something nice for the Dem’s that come out to caucus. Talk about your sour grapes.

  91. I’m never commented on this site before but have been “lurking” for a couple of months. I want to thank all of you for all you are doing for Hillary and for the rest of us through the great and not so good times. You’ve raised our spirits and inspired us to volunteer to do more than just send money. I’ve known about Hillary for a long time. I was born and raised in her state. Hillary is fantastic!

  92. ground game sounds superb, great organization and planning. Attention to those kinds of details goes a long, long way and has good payoff.

  93. MollyJRIchards is right. As a born and bred Southerner, I can tell you that we take food for everything…new baby, just married, new to the neighborhood, sick friend, when someone dies, and just because. Providing food for others is our way of showing we care. It is a long southern tradition and I can remember going with my great grandmother to “take food”. It is southern hospitality and as my grandma used to say, ” It’s being a southern lady.” Good for Hillary and the campaiign for carrying on the tradition.

  94. well happy new year to all!

    i must say, i’ve spent several hours on the blogs, and the tied has turned, its just impressive…
    it used to be so disheartening to have to fight for hillary everywhere you go, but now there are as many hillary fighters on these web sites, so we are not alone against the masses, there is real push back now by people standing up for hillary.

    obamas people dont have the force or influence they used to.. AND… people are not afraid to say they are for hillary, they are finally making their choice public, so i feel good about hrc’s future…
    goodnight.

  95. What a wonderful effort being made by all of you. I feel very confident it will be successful. I believe the country will owe you a debt of thanks, although they may not realize that immediately.

    If I could do it, I would be telling Iowa voters the two most important choices they have for tomorrow is:

    Join the Democrats and caucus for Hillary.

    or

    Join the Republicans and caucus for BHO

  96. I’ve never commented before, but I support Hillary. I think there’s a chance that McCain will be the nominee and she’s the only one besides Biden (he won’t get the nomination) who can beat him. Edwards is a joke! Biden is serious but gaffe prone. Richardson (who I used to respect), like Edwards has bent to the far left! He doesn’t even believe there is a war on terror. Iraq has clouded everything. It seems that people are so angry that they don’t consider the consequences of an immediate pullout ! Hillary seems to be the only one with the depth of foreign policy knowledge to understand. At least Edwards is clear about his plans. Obama is pretending to be centrist! If gets elected, he’ll bend to the far left making Iraq the democrat’s war. I hope that Hillary wins so Obama will just go away!

  97. B. Merryfield,

    “Sherm, the Repugs only want BHO long enough to whip his […].”

    There’s no question that’s what they want. The real problem is that’s exactly what they would do. It would be so easy for them. They won’t feel constrained to avoid going negative against him, and he has given them tons of ammunition.

    I can’t help but believe it would be terrible for BHO to become President, but the only thing worse is to have four more years of the Repugs in the White House. Not much worse though.

  98. Emjay – In NV, I have been trying to link Hill fans here. To the enthusiastic ones I ask if they will give a ride. To the doubtful ones, I ask if they need a ride. That way two people become certain. I hope you can do it.

    It isn’t just a ‘southern’ or ‘midwest’ thing to offer food. When I hosted my Caucus101 meeting I provided coffee and cookies. I also always take something to the HQ when I work there. I can’t help it — my mother never let anyone visit without serving them something. It’s in our DNA.

    Thank God we will soon know where we stand in the primary process and, no matter where that is, we will proceed to victory. Remember, the electorate has not focused on our most intractable problem: the economy. As someone told me yesterday, we may be past reviving it because we are so much further into debt and deficit. Even that pessimist believes that HRC is most able to at least give us a fighting chance.

    BO? A real roll of the dice with the odds very much against us.

    Good luck to all of you in IA and because you will do your best, we will be right behind you in NH and then NV.

  99. Iowa precinct captains — can’t you provide coffee and ask your supporters to bring cookies? That’ll get them there early.

  100. good morning hillfans!! the massive gotv promgram by hillary looks to be great. also the independent 527s are giving plenty of help also. bottom line, we get our vote out, we can win. zogby coming out with his new iowa tracking poll soon. im not giving up on iowa. if hillary can somehow pull this off, it would be a miracle. even if she does not, i agree she will win in the long haul. feb 5th baby!!!!

  101. Sure, we could have spent New Year’s Eve at a posh gala. But why do that when you can hear a couple of Washington political journalists doing 15 minutes of stand-up comedy at Hotel Fort Des Moines?

    Walter Shapiro of Salon.com and Matt Cooper of Portfolio may want to hold on to their day jobs, but both made us laugh more than once.

    Shapiro’s best bit came when he compared candidates to countries.

    Hillary Clinton, he said, is Canada: “Stable, safe, boring, responsible, but with a great health care plan.”

    Barack Obama is “a mythical kingdom where hope prevails and everyone wears a smile button.”

    John Edwards: “Cuba, where everyone is the son of a millworker.”

    Mike Huckabee is India: “On the march, big, moving, powerful, filled with crazed religious fervor and no infrastructure.”

    Fred Thompson “is what you’d get if you were to merge Paraguay and New Zealand. The slowest country in the world that takes siestas.”

    Mitt Romney is Germany: “Runs with clockwork precision, and everybody is trying to hide something about their past.”

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080102/NEWS/801020361/1001/NEWS

  102. Thought every one could do well to start the day off with a laugh .. and keep smiling everytime we think of BHO: “a mythical kingdom where hope prevails and everyone wears a smile button.”

  103. Anothe BHO Joke:

    The US military has prototyped a super weapon attempting to harness the power of Barack Obama. The Pentagon has dubbed it “The Hope Cannon.” Upon hearing this, Osama bin Laden killed himself, ironically, after losing hope.

  104. zogby’s iowa latest tracking hillary 28%, obama 28%, edwards 26%. confirming what we already know. going to be tight and it comes down to TURNOUT,TURNOUT, AND MORE TURNOUT!!!!

  105. If what I just saw on CSpan is current, and I think it was, the Zogby poll will show it as Clinton 30, Obama 30.

    They split the difference on the independent voters. From 20% four years ago to 40% in the DMR poll, they are saying it will be 30%.

  106. Then I just saw the post above by terrondt. Maybe he is right. It was Zogby himself on CSpan, and they said it was live. But what do I know?

  107. Now I am just so nervous. Seems Hillary is loosing momentum with the Zogby poll. Did Zogby just change his formula by saying 30% of independents were going to come out? Was that the formula he was using before?

  108. americangal, is that the new tracking numbers in nh from cnn? i heard they were going to start a tracking poll in nh.

  109. i saw zogby on cspan and indeed he did say 30% indies. i guess all these polling outfits are gaming the numbers for obama. im not sure.

  110. terrondt, there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between 28-28 and 30-30. That’s especially true when the Iowa polls are considered far less important than GOTV. From what I hear and read, Hillary is doing well in that category.

    I’ve been enjoying your posts.

  111. Zogby tracking poll ittustrates one thing that poll is a joke. poster can manipulate data to make some a winner. BTW Zoby poll didn’t get it right in 2004 president race.

  112. It’s good that both pollsters are expecting a high turn out rate for Indies so this gives the Clinton camp an idea on what needs to be done to make sure they get as many caucusing for them as possible. I am glad this happened now because I don’t want the Clinton camp to have been surprised.

  113. b merry, thanx for the video link. what a great graceful closing case. i see the others are scrambling to copy hillary’s 2 minute ad.

  114. clintondem99, im not sure, we can just chuck these polls now. it is all about the ground game now. man, i hope hillary’s ground game is as good as they say it is.

  115. hillfans, if some of you did not already know, zogby is starting his nh tracking poll friday thru next tuesday, primary day.

  116. i really believe with all the the odds and beating against her, i feel she still can pull it out in iowa. the deck is so stacked against her there. of all the states, iowa has the most liberal/leftist voting block in the whole country. nh should be easier and more receptive to her.

  117. the no secret ballot thing hurts hillary too. im convinced of this. do you know how many husbands who don’t like hillary are making sure their wives don’t vote for her?

  118. On DK backing BHO, Jeralyn writes: “When Obama backs Kucinich’s positions on the war on drugs, the death penalty, mandatory minimums and the Patriot Act — even immigration– then it might mean something. As of tonight, it’s not a reason to switch to Obama vs. Edwards or Hillary.”

  119. is anybody watching cnn? they had these 2 young students, one of them admitting obama is bussing thousands from illinois to caucus for him. f*ckin cheaters.

  120. man, there is going to be massive voter fraud thursday. can u imagine this bs. and he looks like he(obama) is going to get away with it. if i were edwards i would be in a uproar also.

  121. hillfans, like all i love hillary to the mountains but imgetting annoyed at her screeners on the hillaryclinton.com official blog becuase i put up a ra ra post/ not as animated as on here there and they did not post it. they have done this several times over the past year. they are too senitive there. jeez!! maybe too much anti-obama? im no where near as critical and “negative” there as here. oh well, im glad admin gives me leeway to voice my strong opinions about my support for hillary and rage for those who throw stones at her. but overall i like her website. but this site is above and beyond better than her offical site or others. have anybody else have trouble getting all thier posts on hillary’s official? blog?

  122. Well, I wish Hillary had not ceded so much of the college vote to Obama. College women should be coming out in full force for Hillary.

  123. mj, you don’t know that they won’t. Iowans admittedly are still making up their minds. Who knows what kinds of conversations have taken place at family and hometown holiday events? We just have to do our best in Iowa, wait for the results, and move on to NH anyhow. This is not the end of anything. Worrying will solve nothing. Going doubtful and negative puts a vibe out there that is not helpful.

  124. B Merryfield, you are right. And, I am not worried. I think Hill will make this more part of her plan going forward. College students are low hanging fruit. They will support lots of candidates if the candidates court them, and I think these young women will find Hillary inspirational.

  125. I just picked this up reading Taylor Marsh. Obama disguised as a democrat and running as an independent. His attitude may be that “I will show everybody I can pick up the independents and the party loyalists will have no other choice but to file in line.” How arrogant! I think we should nip this usurper in the bud. I sit in MD and am willing to do my part for Hillary’s campaign.

  126. Latest from Pew Research;

    Hillary Maintains Wide National Lead

    The Democratic contest has remained largely stable nationwide. Despite state polls that show very close races in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Hillary Clinton maintains a 20-point lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide (46% to 26%), with John Edwards holding at 14%.

    Figure
    Clinton continues to benefit from a modest gender gap, drawing somewhat greater support among women (49%) than among men (41%). She also leads Obama among white voters (46%, vs. 22% and 16% for Obama and Edwards, respectively). But Obama matches her among black voters (47% for Obama, 45% for Clinton).

    http://www.people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=381

    Note that the only part of the poll being publicized is the repubs…

  127. I don’t remember where, but somewhere in a news article I read she was targeting women under 30 and I believe over 45. If she is targeting women under 30 then surely she has a strategy to reach college students. I doubt she puts an abundance of effort in that direction due to their history of not attending the Iowa caucus. If there are any votes there, the organization will probably reach them.

    I assume there will be exit polls to learn WHY HILLARY WON SO BIG in the caucus. If so, we will know more about who voted and who did not.

  128. What in the world will persuade Iowans? The majority of their reps have endorsed Hillary, so have many of their newspapers, so have 10 Senators, more unions, many progressive national heroes, and a former president 🙂

  129. I’ll bet the Zogby poll today reflects some bandwagon impact of the DMR poll. Great …

    Oh well, just another hurdle to overcome. However, I think Zogby’s projection of 30 percent non-Dems caucusing is more plausible than the 45 percent in the DMR poll.

    BTW, I hope the other campaigns and the media are paying attention to Obama busing in all those college students. That’s intolerable, but hardly a surprise. We knew it was coming.

    FYI, on the NH poll, the last one UNH did had Hillary down by 2, so being up by 4 is an improvement.

  130. And if the turnout is 30 percent non-Dems, I think she can still win, albeit narrowly. Did anyone see Hillary’s interview this morning? Wasn’t she on the “Today” show?

  131. TalkLeft on today’s Zogby poll:
    Zogby Poll

    By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
    Posted on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 07:56:46 AM EST
    Tags: (all tags)
    Share This:
    I told anyone who would listen I do not trust Zogby. Today we see why:

    Democrat Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind, in a tightening three-way race one day before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. Obama gained two points overnight and Clinton lost two points to deadlock at 28 percent among Democrats in Iowa, with Edwards in a statistical dead heat behind them at 26 percent.
    Is that so Mr. Zogby? Heck of a polling night January 1 ay? You would not be aligning yourself with the DMR poll now would you?

    Obama, an Illinois senator, made small gains among independents and solidified his strength among younger voters . . .
    Sure. Whatever you say Zogby. I do not trust the Zogby poll.

    Update [2008-1-2 9:7:53 by Big Tent Democrat]: I am finding that pollsters are aligning their results to the DMR turnout model. A Strategic Vision poll that finished polling on December 30, the day before the DMR poll was released (thus no DMR bump), was released TODAY, 3 days later and shows Obama up and Clinton down. What are these pollsters doing? Does this just reflect what the DMR poll captured? In a word, NO. They juked their stats by changing their turnout model is what happened. What we have now is everyone adjusting to the DMR poll. Forget polls now. They are all just parroting the DMR poll. In essence it is the FINAL poll until the caucus.

  132. I agree 100% with Big Tent Democrat. All other pollsters are now adjusting their turnout models to come close to the DMR model. This renders all their results useless. At this point the only thing that matters is the turnout.

  133. I think that because the top three finishers will be relatively close, that winning the expectations game is as important as where we place. Just like the Big Dawg in NH in 1992, when he was the comeback kid by finishing SECOND (and can ANYONE tell me who was 1st?), we can declare victory in any number of scenarios. The strategy is to either win the game outright and get a bounce in NH, or control and win the expectations game and minimize any bounce for whoever finishes first. Let me again express my gratitude to all of those braving the elements and working so hard out there on the ground to secure victory in Iowa and NH.

  134. By the way, someone here was saying yesterday that Obama thought of everything because of the babysitters. But that’s not true. He was reacting to Hillary’s camp, which had the brilliant idea of recruiting daycare centers to stay open for the kids of caucus goers. A much safer and organized idea.

  135. terrondt
    One would hope that Iowans will not tolerate it. They know who their neighbors are and when they see a busload of people come in to vote for Obama they do not know questions will be asked quite vocally I would think. The other candidates supporters should just band together as one voting block against Obama. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton would be screaming bloody murder if this was happening against a Black candidate.

  136. What in the world will persuade Iowans?

    Understand that the bias against female candidates in Iowa (even among Democrats) is well-entrenched. It is the only state in the country besides Mississippi that has never elected a woman to a major office (Congress, Senate, Governor).

    A woman won’t win one of those offices in Iowa until the Republicans run a female candidate.

    Also, understand that the Iowa Democratic caucus has a long tradition of backing nominees who are really bad national candidates. That’s the problem with the Iowa caucus. They are filled to the brim with lefty activists who are out of touch, and unconcerned, with the realities of national politics and assembling a winning Democratic coalition. It’s a lot like the DNC with their heads in the clouds so far that they don’t even bat an eyelash at disenfranchising Democratic voters in a crucial swing state like Florida. Although it’s a little different, letting Iowa be the first nominating state is a bit like letting DailyKOS pick a nominee.

    Having said that, I do think Clinton has as good a shot as anyone of winning the Iowa caucus tomorrow.

  137. Understand that the bias against female candidates in Iowa (even among Democrats) is well-entrenched.

    The DMR poll reflects this huge gender gap. Her support with men in Iowa is really weak.

  138. clintondem99, ras did not poll for 2 or so days becuase of the new year’s holiday. jeez i noticed the same thing until i read the chart on his sight. BUT, a new national pew poll shows hillary 46% to obama’s 26%. but then again the national numbers is NOT the story now. the political world eye’s are on iowa. damn shame. she leads miles away nationally but struggling like hell in iowa.

  139. hwc, I also believe she will win tomorrow. It’s because she has (to plagiarize) three things going for her: 1. Organization, 2. Organization, and 3. Organization.

    Seriously, the reports are that she has the best GOTV organization there in history. I wouldn’t know down here in Louisiana.

  140. hwc, i understand your frusteration. i commented before that the worst possible place for hillary to compete in the farthest leftist rabid anti-war voting state u can find. plus having a open ballot process does not help matters either. i am one of those most anti-war, but im not a mindless leftwing nutkook who hate the clintons to the extreme either. i don’t understand this sheer hatred of the clintons by the extreme wacko left. hell, before this year i thought i was liberal. these guys make me right of center!!!!

  141. sherm, i hope your right. the organization efforts im hearing is earth shattering. maybe the “student” bus ins will will really offend iowa voters.

  142. “hell, before this year i thought i was liberal. these guys make me right of center!!!!” I hear you there, terron. Weird, huh?

  143. terrondt:i thought i was liberal. these guys make me right of center!!!!

    That is a funny line terron, yet so true.

  144. mj, i became a daily kos member 5 years ago, 2003. i used to love that blog. 2004, it was ok. 2006, ok. THEN 2007 arrived and then hillary started running, omg. i started getting trashed, called uninformed,hillbot, and being troll rated left and right. sheer hatred. and the names they called hillary were so viled. you woulf have thought you were on the redstate.org. blog a rightwing site. huffington post is worse.

  145. sherm:

    It’s not just generic GOTV. The national media in the Georgetown Social Club (Hi, Ben!) has been so focused on their sexism (cackling, cleavage, shrillness, and so forth) that nobody is paying any attention to the fact that Democratic voting is driven by women. If it weren’t for women voters, the Democratic Party would be duking it out at the margins of American politics with the Green Party.

    If I were a political reporter, I’d be looking at Emily’s List and the other components of Hillary’s GOTV efforts. I mean, it’s staring them in the face. Hillary’s entire “close” in Iowa (starting with her mom and Chelsea) has been targeted specifically to women voters. But, the media is blind to all of that. I mean, seriously, can you imagine Timmy Russert understanding the connection Clinton makes with women voters?

    The unfortunate part is the Iowa is the absolute worst state in the country for a woman candidate. Worse even than Mississippi where the African American vote is massive and tilts massively female.

    The most frustrating part of this primary season is that the gang attack on Clinton has really undermined and disenfranchised the female vote in the Democratic Party. Women voters are the Democrats equivalent of the Jesus Freaks in the Republican base. If women voters walk away from the primaries feeling rejected, the Democratic Party will loose in 2008. If the Democrats can’t win in 2008, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they will ever win the White House in the foreseeable future.

  146. so it finnally clicked with me on who these kooks were. THEY WERE NADER SUPPORTERS OF 2000!! or as admin call them naderites who masks as dems who never were for the most part. now this year they support obama, edwards, and get this RON PAUL of all people. this guy takes the cake. he is against choice, education, help for the poor, and everyother goverment help. but oh boy, he agrees with them on the war. unbelievable.

  147. i don’t understand this sheer hatred of the clintons by the extreme wacko left. hell, before this year i thought i was liberal. these guys make me right of center!!!!

    I think a lot of us will rethink our support of Democratic candidates if Clinton is derailed from the nomination, given the disgusting nature of the race.

    Any party that is stupid enough politically to nominate a candidate two years removed from the state house to be a wartime candidate for Commander in Chief is too stupid to warrant my support.

  148. I think most of those guys on Daily kos are anarchists. I have never seen them offer a solid logical argument. Their argument goes like this…… Obama is God so he can do no wrong. They are very abusive, belligerent if that is what they think liberalism is I want no part of it. They are so intolarent of other view points they could never qualify to be liberals.

  149. hwc, im going to be like everybody else before and during the voting. stressed out. i hope i don’t drive my wife crazy. im going to be refreshing my computer like crazy thursday night. btw watch out for the entrance polls, they are almost always on the money.

  150. hwc, a few months ago i talked about that senario but i will not go there again. feb 5th this will be done with and hillary will be on the ballot 10 months from now. instead of suger plums at nite, i will dream feb 5th hillary sweep.

  151. Any party that is stupid enough politically to nominate a candidate two years removed from the state house to be a wartime candidate for Commander in Chief is too stupid to warrant my support.

    It will be the first time in this century that a major party nominated a candidate with such little experience – basically two years removed from state legislature and 1.5 year of US senate experience before that candidate started running for president.

  152. Let me clarify.

    If Obama pulls this thing off, it will be the first time in this century that a major party would have nominated a candidate with such little experience – basically two years removed from state legislature and 1.5 year of US senate experience before that candidate started running for president.

  153. clintondem99, that is what puzzles me. i thought liberals of years ago preached tolerance, love everyone and be inclusive. this does not apply to thos morons, idiots, and viled haters. hell, redstate.org is rightwing but at least u know where they stand.

  154. terrondt:

    I’ve just backed away from following the race so closely. I figure that whatever will be will be. If Obama gets the nomination, the Democrats will lose again in 2008. But, what else is new? They only elected one President in the last 30 years. Once again, Democrats will scratch their heads and wonder what happened. Oblivious to the fact that nobody gets elected President without crossing the Commander-in-Chief threshold.

    If Hillary doesn’t win the nomination, she’ll probably replace Harry Reid as Senate majority leader.

  155. terrondt, a lot of people are stressed and here in NJ the campaign kicks off tomorrow night with the opening of the local Hillary campaign headquarters. around the state.

  156. let me put it to u this way. as much as i dislike phoney/edwards, it is nothing compared for the extreme dislike and lack of respect i have for obama. i resent the fact big media is shoving him down my throat day after day. i resent his being compared to JFK,RFK, AND MLK. i just can’t stand the site of the guy. AND I HOPE BIG MEDIA AND THE NUTKOOKS ARE READING THIS!!!!

  157. HWC, isn’t that funny? If Obama loses, there is no way he’ll replace Reid as majority leader. Hillary is the only candidate who appeals to the broad base of the Party.

  158. haven’t been here in a while.
    guys. don’t take the iowa caucuses too seriously. five of my friends are already in Iowa to caucus.

  159. im not sure when the hillary camp is going to open a office locally here in connecticut. i live in east hartford. i assume a office will open close to super tuesday.

  160. MJS, gives good advice. I’m sure everyone who posts here know that Hillary’s eventual nomination does not rest solely on her success in Iowa. She answers that question frequently for the media.

    In fact, you can see a video of her answering that question if you go to NBC Today Show. There are two videos there. I posted a link earlier, but it must still be hung up somewhere.

  161. MJS, The problem is, if Obama wins or his margin of victory is inflated because of outsiders coming into Iowa, will the media bother to even notice?

    The bottom line is, I’m with hwc. Hillary and everybody working for her (including some wonderful people on this site 🙂 ) doing their level best to win this thing, and that’s all we can ask. I still think she will win the nomination because once we get past NH, almost all primaries are limited to Dems, which will definitely help her. But I’m not counting on anything at this point.

  162. i agree hillaryfortexas, but my blood boils once in a while not becuase of iowa, but the overall treatment hillary has been recieving. i guess i get too wrapped up in it. LOL. i have not even gone to sleep yet becuase i worked the graveyard shift.

  163. Obama’s campaign (according to Fox News) is saying Edwards is hurting him by splitting the anti-Hillary vote. I believe Richardson, Biden, and Dodd are splitting the anti-Obama vote. Furthermore, I feel sure many of those voting for Edwards will come over to Hillary after he is out of the contest. That’s especially true when they see Obama is not going to win. If that isn’t apparent after Iowa, it is sure to be well known after NH. And, isn’t it fun to wonder what will happen if BHO ever gets vetted?

  164. So what if Sinbad was there? Hillary brought an entourage of people with her. Nice that Meredith would join in the discount Hillary’s experience fest.

  165. B Merryfield, That second video you posted is titled, “Meredith Vieira roughs up Hillary.” The youtube poster obviously isn’t a Hillary fan. That being said, she handled herself fine when Vieira tried to pooh-pooh her experience.

  166. Sherm, you’ll appreciate this. It comes from September 2004 comments about a GOP online video game on Illinois politics:

    * “It’s also important to note that this game will never stop Obama, who is going to be the biggest thing since Jesus, from rolling over Alan Keyes, who is the craziest politician since Bob Dornan.”

    * “It’s also important to note that the game was never intended to stop or start Obama. In fact, I bet a lot of Illinois citizens who have sympathies with the GOP at the state legislative level will also vote for Obama. .. Party politics are for wimps.”

    * “Everyone’s on the Obama train.”

    Folks, there’s a long established pattern here. We just have to live with it as long as it lasts.

  167. mj, It’s annoying, but at least we know Hillary can take care of herself when it comes to media grilling. She doesn’t need to rely on softball questions like some candidates.

    B Merryfield, That info from Vilmain is awesome. Now Obama’s people will claim they have 5,000 drivers, lol.

  168. BMerry: two have residence/family in Iowa that they will register in the name with. The other three are going along with it and hoping for the best. (they will use their friends’ address(es))

    I understand that registration in Iowa to caucus is very lax. that’s not good if you have hordes of border state rebels ready to brave the ice and snow. the disturbing thing is that I’m pretty sure the Obama campaign is fully aware of this.

    The Hillary campaign probably expects it too. I already spoke to Mo and Crystal about this.

    Thanks for sticking it out for our girl hillary, guys. The time is winding down. Do all that you can to persuade and get people to reconsider!

    My whole family is for Hillary and when the Illinois primary comes, my family and extended family (a total of 25+ of whom are elligible to vote including cousins, aunts, uncles, grandparents), will be for our girl.

    Even if you think its insignificant, a few votes can swing the tide. Even in Obama’s homestate. So continue to bring about Hillary’s message and convince the ones you love, know, and are akin to!

  169. b merryfield, wow that is a lot of drivers and shuttles. big bad ground game indeed? any wagers on turnout. 150,000? i heard 200,000 but that is far fetched.

  170. that was a great read BMerry. As a whole the country is in need of this type of judgment.

    Then again, paraphrasing from Taylor…what can you expect from a country where the biggest news is made not by terrorism or Bush’s failures, but the troubles of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears?

    Obama’s campaign is clever in understanding that many average Americans are swayed easily and captivated easily by the flashes of celebdom, and to them, Obama is a rockstar, a celebrity, a role model for the little children.

    That was what Britney Spears used to be too.

  171. New Tracking poll in NH:
    Hillary:37%
    OBH:20%
    Breck girl:16%

    Link: politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/02/tracking_poll_clinton_mccain_lead_in_new_hampshire.html

  172. I heard on MSNBC that the precinct captain that made a video claiming that she left Hillary campaign to join Obama just announced that she was leaving Obama campaign.

  173. Good NH news! BTW, I wonder if McCain can capture the nomination once we get into states where only Dems or Repubs can vote. That was his problem in 2000.

  174. Paula, That is correct. Supposed to be a neighbour of vilsac. I think she is now plannig to go to Edwards or Richardson campaign.

  175. Great news out of NH and great news about those drivers for HRC!

    Oh, Paula, I think you underestimated the number of drivers BO will announce. Only a 100 more than Clinton? Knowing the Obama campaign it will announce 50,000! 🙂

  176. The Suffolk poll is a wonderful break from all the intensity of IA. If Hillary’s number in NH holds steady and in double digits, that would make me less anxious about IA.

    What is fueling her rise in NH?

  177. lol, reed061. 🙂

    I suspect McCain’s surge in NH is helping Hillary because it’s pulling more independents into the Rep mix and diluting Obama’s support among that group.

  178. Obama’s prbbly going to stay away from the driver comment, since he’ll onnly need a few dozen or so to supply his true core backing: the Illinois High School Ruffians.

  179. filbertsf, I don’t think he expected such a weak field in Iowa. I just wish he had orginization there now.

  180. Regarding tracking polls, Fox News just described the tracking polls all of the campaigns are running in Iowa. I assumed they were doing that, but had no idea how.

    They make their daily phone calls just like the other tracking polls. They assign each contact with the numbers 1 thru 5 just the way you probably read them on this site. Of course, those numbers are used for many other things, but they let the candidate know how well they are doing in a particular area or statewide.

    I believe that helps to understand why Hillary has seemed so calm as she is interviewed on TV, and why Obama has seemed so frantic lately. They know how they are doing. I hope that’s right!

  181. Details from that Suffolk poll:

    Clinton led Obama 41 percent-to-18 percent among registered Democrats, 40 percent-to-18 percent among women, and 39 percent-to-13 percent among voters age 65 and older. However, one out of four elderly voters (25 percent) was still undecided in the Democratic Primary.

    “Hillary Clinton has methodically locked up the most reliable voters. In addition, she has widespread support geographically in the four major regions of the state, right down to the county level.”

    When voters from each party were asked who they thought would be the next president of the United States regardless of whom they currently support, Democrats chose Clinton (40 percent) and Obama (18 percent), with 30 percent undecided. Republicans predicted Romney (19 percent), McCain (15 percent), Clinton (12 percent) and Giuliani (10 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided.

    Dems know Hillary is the real deal.

  182. Orange Bowl will be on at 8 PM ET tomorrow night. This should stop a few of those Obama college boys and stuff. Especially since he’s touting his inevitability in Iowa…people might consider not showing up. lol

  183. MJS:

    If you can point to the precise location and time when Obama’s busses taking high schoolers from Illinois to caucus in Iowa will be leaving, we can alert the Fox news crew. They will have a live coverage of that bus driving down the highway all the way to Iowa from a helicopter and the whole America can see and have fun. Hillary can send some of her volunteers to greet them with flowers and refreshments when their bus stops at the caucus location in Iowa. 🙂

  184. that woman is insane. If she represents a majority of Iowans, I must wonder why Iowa is the first with the primary?

  185. Don’t worry. There is still 24 hours. She will switch couple more times and finally come back and caucus for Hillary come caucus time tomorrow. Timing is everything! Hillary has timed it such that given the regularity with which she is switching, she will be on Hillary’s side at precisely 7.00 pm CT tomorrow.

  186. Robert Novak’s current predictions:

    Democrats: This is a three-way contest among Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). It’s possible that there are only three survivors out of Iowa for the Democrats and that the second-tier candidates will be gone by New Hampshire.
    The similarities between Obama 2008 and Howard Dean in 2004 are real and could show themselves Thursday night. Obama is the new, fresh face in the race with youthful, enthusiastic, and idealistic supporters. For Dean, that same formula translated into caucus-day bust. Will the same happen to Obama?

    Obama leads in most polls, and significantly in some. His negatives are much lower than Clinton’s, and his positives are higher than Edwards’. He has as much money as Clinton and the edge in enthusiasm. However, his campaign team in Iowa is the least experienced of the top three. He could flame out like Dean, but all considered, he has to be viewed as the favorite.

    Hillary’s organization may be the strongest, but her negatives are the highest. Her hardball tactics against Obama will hurt her. For the Democrats, who have a viability threshold of at least 15% in each precinct, second choice matters, and that is where Hillary’s negatives will hurt her. She doesn’t appear to be the second choice for very many voters at all.

    Edwards has run in Iowa before and done well. His second-place finish in 2004, however, was in a weaker Democratic field. His negatives are low, however, and many polls have shown him as the most popular second choice among supporters of the second-tier candidates. In polls, he is right on Hillary’s heels, and it is likely he will pass her in the caucuses.

    The second-tier candidates — Sen. Joe Biden (Del.), Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.), and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson — will struggle to reach the 15% viability threshold in many districts, with the top three garnering 85% among them in most areas. Of the three second-tier Democrats, Richardson has the best chance of even registering in the final results.

    The Democratic field looks to shake out this way:

    1st Place: Barack Obama
    2nd Place: John Edwards
    3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
    4th Place: Bill Richardson

  187. ra1029 Says:

    January 2nd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
    Don’t worry. There is still 24 hours. She will switch couple more times and finally come back and caucus for Hillary come caucus time tomorrow. Timing is everything! Hillary has timed it such that given the regularity with which she is switching, she will be on Hillary’s side at precisely 7.00 pm CT tomorrow.

    Funny! I actually bet you are right.

  188. BHO’s handlers but Hillary’s are smarter. When you enter hillaryattacks.com it redirects to Hillary’s attacktimeline.com.

    In order to get BHO’s hillaryattacks website, you have to go to hillaryattacks.barackobama.com/

    These buttheads got totally outsmarted by our girl!!!

  189. That switcher seems pretty flaky, frankly. You let yourself be in a campaign ad for Obama and then decided weeks later he doesn’t have enough experience? Helllloooooo!!!!

  190. most of them are already in Iowa.

    Damn! We missed some entertainment. I wanted to have my popcorn ready and watch the bus drive on my Fox news channel.

  191. MJS, let’s just assume that despite the Orange Bowl, they’ll be there. Let’s also hope Hillary’s ground team has rounded enough support to overcome them.

  192. Maybe Mr. and Mrs. Villsac (sp?), since they will caucus together, can stare her down and bring her back to Hillary! 🙂

  193. IMHO “switcher” wanted to promote her own business and got her 15 minutes of fame plus. No that the limelight is no longer on her, well, she’s back for another fix.

    As they say, takes one to know one.

  194. MJS:

    Too bad that Bob Novak does not change the party registration for one day and vote for Obama along with those high school kids. They could have accomodated him in that bus.

  195. I’m taking a quick break, a couple of things.

    1. sent someone out this morning to pick up our mini-vans 🙂

    2. Can’t comment on specifics until after 7pm tomorrow, but there may be a few surprises for MJS’s friends.

  196. Novak makes some good points but “most” polls don’t Obama ahead. I also don’t think Obama’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Hillary’s or Edwards’.

  197. Dodd won’t offer second place endorsement.

    “The idea that I would go around telling key supporters of mine that tomorrow night, if for whatever reason we didn’t get 15 percent, I want you to do the following — I’m not sure I’d vote for me,” Dodd said. “The idea that you’re trying to market me, auction me off to some other campaign, would truly bother me.”

    thehill.com/campaign-2008/dodd-wont-offer-second-choice-endorsement-2008-01-02.html

  198. MJS,

    I do not take anything that that rethug says or thinks. Novak just wants some attention like that flake in Iowa.

  199. i saw a random Ron Paul sign on the highway yesterday and basically laughed. the thought of that guy becoming president or even a nominee really cracks me up. lol

  200. Students at Washington & Lee University are predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the support of Iowa voters in Democratic caucuses later this week.

    The prediction Wednesday is a prelude to the school’s 2008 Democratic Mock Convention later this month.

    Convention organizers say they believe Clinton will narrowly hold off challenges by Senators Barack Obama and John Edwards. They say their prediction is based on research conducted over the past year.

    The gathering is the most accurate student-run mock convention in the nation. It has had 18 correct predictions out of 32 attempts, with only one incorrect call since 1948. The convention January 25 and 26 will be the school’s 100th.

    http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=7567343&nav=23ii

  201. HLR:2. Can’t comment on specifics until after 7pm tomorrow, but there may be a few surprises for MJS’s friends.

    See, I told you. Hillary’s campaign is going to be waiting for Obama’s Chicago high schoolers with flowers and refreshments at caucus locations.

  202. Ooooh, HillaryLandRocks, I sure hope so!

    Now, a few dumb questions: When do the caucuses start? 7 p.m. Central time? When do results start coming in?

  203. “It has had 18 correct predictions out of 32 attempts, with only one incorrect call since 1948.”

    They’re right a little more than half the time but have only been incorrect once since 1948? I don’t think that adds up. (This is not directed at you, B Merryfield, but the article itself. 🙂 )

  204. Thanks to all people going to New Hampshire this weekend to work for the campaign. Stay safe, and bring our girl a victory on Jan 8th.

  205. HLR, thank you for the hints. for everyone else who think (worry) that our girl will be outsmarted by these upstarts, think again. she has a husband who won 2 elections (behind every successful man…), and she’s not just any smart woman – she is hillary clinton. she knows the game.

  206. CAUCUS: (Algonquin), Often said to mean :meeting of the tribal chiefs.

    That’s probably the most important post I’ve made all week. I just heard that and thought I would pass it along. After all, we keep talking about the “caucus”. It’s best we know what we are talking about.

    My apologies to everyone. Especially Admin.

  207. btw, most of these Illinoisans will be in the eastern border of Iowa for obvious travel reasons.

    This is Daley machine at work. If it was a primary, you would have seen dead people voting.

  208. Don’t worry. There is still 24 hours. She will switch couple more times and finally come back and caucus for Hillary come caucus time tomorrow.

    The “switcher” still has to make a quick pit stop with the Kucinich and Gravel camps.

  209. BTW, is anyone as sick as I am about the Georgetown Social Club (Hi, Ben!) constantly saying that women won’t go out in bad weather.

    WTF? Have we turned back the clock to the days of June Cleaver and doing housework in pearls? All the women I know go out in good weather, bad weather, and everything in between.

    When are Democrats going to start calling the media on this BS?

  210. The “switcher” still has to make a quick pit stop with the Kucinich and Gravel camps.

    These are her timings for tomorrow

    7.00 PM CT: Hillary
    11.00 pm CT: Repents and thinks that should have cacused for Obama
    3.00 am CT: Changes mind and is for Edwards
    7.00 am CT: Richardson
    10.00 am CT: Biden

    12.00 noon CT: Dodd
    2.00 pm CT: Gravel
    5.00 pm CT: Kucinich
    7.00 pm CT: Back to Hillary again.

  211. This is Daley machine at work. If it was a primary, you would have seen dead people voting.

    Didn’t the Des Moines Register turnout model include 23% dead people and 18% voters from Illinois who haven’t even been born yet?

    If there’s anything Obama’s Illinois supporters know about, it’s showing up somewhere and saying “Present”.

  212. Didn’t the Des Moines Register turnout model include 23% dead people and 18% voters from Illinois who haven’t even been born yet?

    They did. They didn’t want to be rude, and called it “independents”.

  213. hwc — “BTW, is anyone as sick as I am about the Georgetown Social Club (Hi, Ben!) constantly saying that women won’t go out in bad weather.”

    Do these blooming idiots think that Iowa women are part of the D.C. tea set? It’s Iowa, stupid! Not all women are worried about a little ice or snow. They’re going to elect the first woman President of the United States. Do you really think a little “bad weather” is going to keep them home tending the fire and knitting tea cosies?

  214. Hey, you know what, if she comes back to Hillary, we’ll take her with open arms.

    You can only have her for four hours a day, between 7.00 and 11.00 pm CT.

  215. B Merry: Last night I wrote about a 96 yr old woman my sister treated in a midwestern city over the holidays. The lady was pretty sick, but the ONLY thing she cared about was gettin’ well enough to get back to Iowa to caucus for Hillary. I do believe she got home. That woman would walk in the snow barefoot to caucus for Hillary…she was 96 and there’s more where she came from!

    Hooray for her! And for all of you workin’ hard in Iowa today and tomorrow! We love all yall.

  216. mollyj, we have some pretty tough and determined women here in NH, as well. If someone really wants to cast their vote, they will find a way. These D.C. media types are clueless.

  217. Ok. Now we know for sure just how low BHO will go. He’s advertising on Drudge.

    Sen. Barack Obama’s got the Democratic netroots Fired Up! and Ready To Fight, although not in a good way, and news that his campaign is advertising on the site of the master of all grand right wing conspiracy theories, Matt Drudge, will not help matters much.

    The banner ad appears to be targeted at Iowans, although it’s not clear whether Drudge has the capacity to microtarget IP addresses like that.

    But here’s the question: does Obama care even a sliver that some bloggers and netroots’ activists are angry at him? I don’t think he does. I don’t think his campaign does. I don’t even think, — and I have nothing to base this on — Obama’s own netroots’ team does.

    marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/obama_advertises_on_drudge.php

  218. constantly saying that women won’t go out in bad weather.

    In the last 48 hrs, I’ve helped countless older folks bringing their oxygen (yes, you read that right), their walkers and folded up many a wheelchair to put in the back of their vehicles.

  219. obama is advertising on drudge guys. drudge. blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/01/obama-advertise.html

  220. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: When women vote, women win. Even if she were to lose, she better get a film crew out there to capture images of women of all ages caucusing (sp.) for Hillary. Get images and stories of the hundreds of hundred-year old women and mothers and daughters. Then, get this up on the web Mr. Daou.

    After Iowa:

    1.) Keep it positive
    2.) Inspire women

    That’s the winning formula. When women vote, women win.

  221. Of course Obama doesn’t care about the netroots. And they were idiotic to believe he ever did. He used them and spit them out, but they deserve it for being so damn gullible.

  222. if 200000 iowans go to the dem caucus id be stunned. every time they say oh we are going to increase the numbers-like dean-but the numbers.

  223. WOW! B Merry — very impressive reference to Bob Dornan.

    You’re quite right. B-1 Bob is the white man’s Alan Keyes. As soon as we get this nomination sewed up, I’ll trade Dornan stories with you.

Comments are closed.