We’re loathe to interrupt the New Year’s comment party in the previous post but wanted to wish everyone a Hillary New Year and the end of the repulsive Bush era.
Aside from Obama’s continuing hostility towards unions, Democrats, and Bush type campaign and Republican talking points, most of the comments were about the polling situation in Iowa, particulary the Des Moines Register poll.
In light of the excellent campaign Hillary has run the past few weeks – akin to some fine Champagne – the Des Moines Register hit like bad moonshine. It was good to see in the comments how the DMR “moonshine”, although initially causing some indigestion, did not give anyone permanent brain damage. The comments did a darn good job of collective analysis.
Mark Penn did a quick analysis of the Des Moines Register poll too, which we will reproduce below. But for us, this is what matters:
What a day. Drove down to Atlantic to do publicity for Bill’s Atlantic event. Went over to the Cass Community Center to help manage it — had 500 sign-ins — it was a big success. I love Iowans — so friendly, and they forgive what they call my “east coast accent.” Atlantic, IA turned out to hear BC!
Tomorrow I’ll be in Council Bluffs for the Hillary event at MidAmerica Center. Can’t wait!
Was interviewed a bit by Newsday, which is a NY based news source.
To emjay: really loving Loess scenery. Western IA has stepped plains with a density second only to regions in China. I’m loving every minute of my stay here.
I’ve got lots of pics but my card reader isn’t working w/ the laptop I brought with me — will probably have them to share once I get home.
Remember folks, this is a marathon, and whatever happens Thursday there are lots of miles yet to run–with Hillary having committed support at significant levels in states beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and S. Carolina. I’m convinced that the lion’s share of that support isn’t the type that will dissolve even if (and I’m not predicting this) 3 of the first 4 contests are lost. Remember, BO and JE have built-in advantages in Iowa, and Hill is still competitve.
Let’s stay positive and not get away from the long-term game plan.
ALCINA, I’m in until we get this woman in the white house. I just got a call from the campaign and depending if they can put me up or not, I’ll be in NH as soon as possible, and definately for the primary
of course we’ll fight… Make no mistake it’s now a fight between a true competent woman leader and a puppet propped up by Karl Rove.
I’m going to New Hampshire Friday to Weds to help out and I’m stoked.
And I just wanted to not to worry and to refer everyone to this story:
… now is the time to lend support to those of us in the field and stand with us regardless of the outcome. we need a battle cry, not some wimpy-cry-baby reaction to a bunch of poll numbers. get over it, boys and girls. let’s put our heads and hearts together and move on to victory.
Hooray for Representative Donald Payne of New Jersey, for all y’all workin’ hard and caucusing in Iowa and all the gang goin’ up to New Hampshire! Wish I could join y’all…hoorays all around. We’ll meet at Hills inauguration! Hooray and Happy New Year!
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Here is Mark Penn’s take on the state of the race:
The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.
When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.
The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.