Hillary Clinton At The Turn Of The Tide


As the last few hours of 2007 drain away, let’s talk a little Bloomberg, Obama, Edwards, Hillary.

Bloomberg:
Yes, he’s running. Big Media, tired of simply controlling the process now wants its own candidate to run. The head of Bloomberg, Inc. is the perfect Big Media candidate. All the dolts will see his strengths, none of the problems. [Hint: Hillary Clinton is 44 even if Bloomberg runs (Obama loses big – Edwards loses too).] The big cheerleader in the Bloomberg effort, other than Bloomberg aides who want to stick with their Big Money pal and move to the White House, are the braindead pundits like David Broder. Broder who once declared the Reform Party “the future” or somesuch — we’ll have more on this story after Hillary gets the nomination.

The New York Times has more on the Big Meeting in Norman, Oklahoma this Sunday. As we will explain in a much later article on Bloomberg, the Oklahoma meeting is just a publicity stunt on the clever Bloomberg’s part. Bloomberg does not need any of the sad attendees going to the meeting. Bloomberg will spin the non-partisan mumbo-jumbo to the rubes. But like we said regarding Obama – the issues being fought over matter and that is why there is so much fighting. The war on partisanship continues but we agree with Krugman (while laughing at Obama) on the benefits of partisanship.

For those wanting more information on the Bloomberg campaign, read our article from May 2007 concerning Bloomberg as well as our June 2007 article. Both those early articles are on target. We still think Bloomberg will announce in May 2008 and that Giuliani will not be the nominee of the Republican Party.

Edwards:
Read our article from May on how Edwards could fix his campaign. For now, it is good to see Edwards discovering the benefits of wearing a suit. If you run for president, look the part.

Edwards has also discovered the joys of hypocrisy. Edwards is picking up steam by lying openly and with joy. All that talk against money in politics fell away as Edwards discovered he could benefit from all that money running ads for him from groups that Edwards would months ago have denounced as “special interests” and the evil 527s.

Edwards has also decided to finally run as the white male candidate. We wrote this back in May:

We thought Edwards would retool his campaign and try to run as the Male, Heterosexual, Southern, White, Religious, Populist candidate. This posture conceivably would have been strong. Southern candidates do well and get elected president as Democrats. As the White Male candidate Edwards also could have distinguished himself from his Latino, African-American, and Female opponents and possibly acquired a distinuishing niche in the top tier of the presidential race.

Instead of running a populist campaign, Edwards decided to become the candidate of the unnuanced left. This has led to disaster after disaster.

Edwards has finally started to ignore the nutroots and run a campaign like a grownup. Edwards has fully embraced hypocrisy, while loudly denouncing hypocrisy; Edwards is taking all the help he can from “special interests” and running as the white male that he is. That’s how you win elections bub. Embrace your inner hypocrite John – that’s why Obama is finally getting scared of you – you are finally playing the game like a grown up. Edwards also finally discovered that Obama is his problem, not Hillary. Way to go Johnny.

Obama:
Obama, like any flim-flam confidence man, is running against the clock. Flim-flam artists have to keep moving and changing stories and charming and spinning and talking that sweet talk – all the while keeping an eye out for the law. The trick is to pocket the money you got from the rubes who believe that snake-oil you sell but get out just in time to avoid the pokey.

Obama’s problem: The clock is ticking faster than Obama is dancing.

After getting away with complete acceptance of his totally manufactured story Obama began to face scrutiny from the more discerning members of the Democratic left. The more intelligent members of the Democratic left began to dismantle Obama’s bull and take notice of why Republicans were acting as Obama cheerleaders. Their judgment was “No there there – an empty Republican suit.”

The basic Obama narrative was finally challenged on the pages of the Washington Post the Sunday before the Iowa caucuses:

It’s just this sort of blunder — naive, well-meaning, amateurish, convinced that everyone understands the goodness of U.S. intentions — that worries me again these days. That’s because a curious and dangerous consensus seems to be forming among the chattering classes, on both the left and the right, that what the United States needs in these troubling times is not knowledge and experience but a “fresh face” with an “intuitive sense of the world,” and that the mere act of electing Obama will put us on the path to winning the so-called war on terror. [snip]

The next president will have to try to build a successful, economically viable Palestinian state while protecting the safety and sovereignty of Israel. He or she will have to slowly and responsibly withdraw forces from Iraq without allowing the country to implode. He or she will have to bring Iraq’s neighbors, Syria and Iran, to the negotiating table while simultaneously reining in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, keeping Syria out of Lebanon, reassuring Washington’s Sunni Arab allies that they have not been abandoned, coaxing Russia into becoming part of the solution (rather than part of the problem) in the region, saving an independent and democratic Afghanistan from the resurgent Taliban, preparing for an inevitable succession of leadership in Saudi Arabia, persuading China to play a more constructive role in the Middle East and keeping a nuclear-armed Pakistan from self-destructing in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. [snip]

Obama may possess all the intuition of a fortuneteller. But as chair of a Senate subcommittee on Europe, he has never made an official trip to Western Europe (except a one-day stopover in London in August 2005) or held a single policy hearing. He’s never faced off with foreign leaders and has no idea what a delicate sparring match diplomacy in the Middle East can be. And at a time in which the United States has gone from sole superpower to global pariah in a mere seven years, these things matter.

The main issue in U.S. foreign policy that the next president will face is repairing our image in the world. But in foreign policy, unlike advertising, image is created through action, not branding. Which is why one cannot help but sense a touch of shirking (not to mention a lack of short-term memory) in all this talk about “intuitive experience” and “re-branding images,” particularly when it comes from those who began the “New American Century” as ardent supporters of Bush’s wars and his self-advertised “gut” instincts.

It is as though, rather than accepting blame for the mess and taking responsibility for cleaning it up, they would prefer to slap a new coat of paint on the problem and declare it fixed.

It was “intuition” that made the mess in the first place. It will take more than intuition to clean it up. After all, we are not launching a new product. We are electing a president.

Hillary:
Hillary’s numbers began to soften when the Big Media Party, especially Tim Russert, decided to throw everything they had at her. Immediately the Republican candidates started to run ads against Hillary in places like New Hampshire. The Democratic candidates too continued the attack on Hillary. It was Hillary against them all. Her poll numbers softened. Now the opposite dynamic is in effect.

With the death of Benazir Bhutto candidates like John McCain, respected and loved by Big Media, began echoing the Hillary message. Experience matters. McCain and Big Media started to talk about the value of experience at the same time Obama started to get some little examination. John Edwards too finally realized his problem was Obama the concilliator, not Hillary the fighter. Edwards also realized that he needs to replace Obama as the non-Hillary. As we noted above Edwards adopted a hypocritical but intelligent stance regarding the financing of his campaign. Obama, whose numbers had earlier risen with the collapse of Edwards’ soft supporters is now losing those soft supporters to Edwards.

The Hillary campaign had already adjusted to the all out assault on Hillary initiated by Tim Russert. The endorsement of Hillary by the Des Moines Register and the rollout of that endorsement and the Hillary surrogates and the Hill-o-copter, the return of reality to the campaign trail because of the killing of Bhutto, and the last minute realizations of John Edwards all have contributed to the Hillary rise. But the big factor helping Hillary is that Iowans know they are being tested. Iowans are the ones who have to help select the next president – not a drinking buddy, not a popular college professor, – the president.

As Iowans get closer to decision day this Thursday, Iowans get serious. Pick a president Iowa – and Hillary will do just fine in the caucuses.

The latest from Iowa:

BILL CLINTON thought he had it tough when he ran for president in 1992, but his wife is facing an even more brutal race, according to Terry McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman: “Bill Clinton said to me, ‘Terry, I have never in my life seen such an attack on one candidate and that’s saying something’.

“It has been relentless. He didn’t have to face attacks from his own party. She has had them from day one. But I’m not complaining. She has taken on the Republicans and beaten them. She’s so resilient. She has the attitude, ‘It is what it is’, and just marches on.” [snip]

Even Iowans are baffled by their preeminence. “We’re fortunate. We almost get to name the next president. It’s kinda weird,” said Lon Diers, a retired businessman, who braved the frost last week to attend one of Clinton’s rallies. What is more, Iowans are milking it. They are in no hurry to make up their minds. Diers is for Clinton but his wife Rosalyn, a former factory worker, said that she was still undecided.

“I’m afraid that if Hillary Clinton becomes president, she’ll pay the Republicans back for the times they were so horrible to her husband. We need someone who can work with both parties,” she said. But she is not sure that Obama has what it takes either: “I’m not ready for him. He’s too young and green to be president.” ABOUT 30% of Iowans are still on the fence, according to McAuliffe’s calculations. There is no secret ballot and caucus-goers can be persuaded to change their vote right up to the last minute: “You walk into the room on caucus night and there’s going to be a group dynamic at work. Until we get those results, we’re all going to be nervous, like cats on a roof. It’s very tight between the three of us, very tight.”

The third candidate is John Edwards, who is showing signs of building strength in Iowa after coming a close second there in 2004 to John Kerry, the eventual Democrat nominee. If Clinton fails to win this week, the next best result for her team would be a victory for Edwards, as he lacks the organisation and resources to compete in other states. [snip]

Weather permitting, Clinton has been travelling all over Iowa by coach and “Hill-icopter”, addressing several rallies a day with her daughter Chelsea at her side. Campaigning is a family affair. Bill Clinton is holding just as many rallies as his wife in this final stretch, prompting some pundits to wonder if he is more of a hindrance than a help to her.

“It is not even a close call,” McAuliffe said. “She’s got huge crowds. He’s got huge crowds. We’re covering double the places. How can you argue with that?”

One of Clinton’s chief organisers in Iowa told him: “Terry, if you can get Bill Clinton every day of the week, I’ll take him.”

McAuliffe is convinced that Hillary Clinton has the breadth and depth of support to survive if she suffers a shock early defeat. “Obviously Iowa is very important and we’re very competitive here, but for us, there isn’t a state that she has to win. That just doesn’t apply to Hillary Clinton.”

She holds strong leads in the vast majority of them and, if she can survive any initial loss of momentum, she will be hard to beat. And there are signs that her campaign is stabilising after hitting a rough patch last month.

When Clinton’s poll ratings began to tumble, Mark Penn, her pollster and chief adviser, held an early-morning meeting to hammer home her strategy. Don’t abandon the message “strength and experience”, he cautioned. Remember Margaret Thatcher, the Iron Lady, he said.

Added to the mix was “the Hillary I know” – testimony from friends and supporters who claim she is kinder, gentler and more likeable than her “chilly Hilly” image. Thatcher did not bother with such niceties, but McAuliffe believes that Americans want their presidents to pass the “beer” test.

“There is no question that the core message is strength and experience, but people have got to like you,” he said.

At a crowded rally last week in Carroll, western Iowa, Clinton was firmly on message. She was introduced by an apple farmer from upstate New York who spoke glowingly of the warmth of the Hillary he knew towards rural folk like him, but in her stump speech she adopted a statesmanlike persona.

“It is time to pick a president,” she said. “There will be a stack of problems waiting in the Oval Office. A war to end in Iraq. A war to address in Afghanistan . . . and these are the problems we know about. Some will come out of nowhere.” Her supporters are drilled to say she is ready to lead on “day one”.

It has been frustrating for Obama to be portrayed as inexperienced, when Hillary Clinton, as he once tartly observed, did not serve in her husband’s cabinet. But that is how he has been defined and it is difficult to shake.

Addressing an equally packed hall in Des Moines, the capital of Iowa, last week, Obama said: “Some of my opponents appear scornful of the word ‘hope’ and think it summons up naivety or weakness, but I know it has been the guiding force behind the most improbable changes this country has ever made.”

There are signs that support for Obama is levelling off after his recent surge in the polls. Perhaps the sly references by Clinton supporters to his drug use in his youth and his Muslim heritage have had an impact, but so too has the frequent implication that he is “too green” rather than “too black”.

Dan Alexander, a university maths lecturer and Obama supporter, admitted: “His support appears to have reached a plateau. I’m just going to walk and talk to people and knock on doors and hopefully give some people enough push to turn up on caucus night. My guess is there was a lot of excitement in November, when support for him started to build, but there’s been a bit of buyer’s remorse. Some people think Obama is too nice, too conciliatory. Hillary Clinton has the Margaret Thatcher toughness.” [snip]

McAuliffe believes the Republicans are being soft on Obama because they are scared of Clinton: “Didn’t Karl Rove [former White House adviser to President Bush] write a memo to Barack Obama on how to beat Hillary? What on earth was that all about?

“Republicans are terrified of Clinton as the nominee. We’re already ahead in 11 [Republican] states, and all we’ve got to do is win Ohio. We haven’t even begun to spend the hundreds of millions of dollars we’ll have to get her positive message out. What more are they going to say about this woman? We’ve heard it all before and we’re still beating them.” By the time the Republicans have finished firing at each other, many of their candidates are going to be seriously wounded. The exception could be McCain, the Arizona senator and former Vietnamese prisoner of war, whose implosion over the summer led his overconfident, better-financed rivals to patronise him as a great American hero. They built him back up, when they might still have been knocking him down. [snip]

For a truly Happy New Year just remember 2008 marks the end of the Bush presidency.

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607 thoughts on “Hillary Clinton At The Turn Of The Tide

  1. Thanks, BMerry.

    We left out a lot for the sake of some sort of brevity.

    We loved this one:

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1207/Dept_of_understatement.html

    From the Early Show this morning:

    Harry Smith: But here’s what I don’t understand, though, because this alliance for a new America, isn’t it run by a former campaign operative of yours?

    John Edwards: It’s my understanding that the guy who runs the organization worked for me years ago, yes, that is true.

    Nick Baldick last got paid by the campaign in the second quarter of this year. Which does feel like a long time ago.

  2. At 12:58, Taylor Marsh posted in comments:

    “Hey all. I’ve been on the phone all morning long. It’s getting *very* dirty, with Obama putting out so many lies the people I’m talking to can’t keep up with them.

    “I’ll be back with a post, but one of my sources is getting me more info.”

    This should be VERY interesting.

  3. Hillary returns Obama’s robocall:

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1207/Clinton_robocalls_back.html

    [link to audio of Hillary robocall: http://www.twango.com/media/thepolitico.public/thepolitico.10010 ]

    In response to Obama’s robocall from a doctor, who accused Clinton of “misleading attacks,”, Clinton’s campaign is out with a call from Dr. Judy Thomas of Cedar Rapids.

    “You may have heard Barack Obama’s negative robocalls and advertisements attacking Hillary Clinton’s health care plan,” it says. “Don’t be misled by Barack Obama’s false claims.”

    The call stresses Clinton’s main policy argument: Barack Obama’s plan leaves 15 million Americans uninsured, including 100,000 Iowans.”

    A Clinton aide said the reference to “advertisements” in the call refers to Obama radio ads which echo his robo-call’s message.

    Also worth noting, at a moment when all campaigns are thinking a lot about demographics, that Clinton’s caller is a woman, Obama’s a man.

  4. I agree with what Terry McAuliffe said. The media and the Republicans are treating Obama with kid gloves because they know they can make mincemeat out of him in the general election! It proves it, why isn’t Hillary the ONE they all talked about beating in the general election??? The Republicans KNOW that Hillary is a strong and proven leader and many of her senate colleagues have comes to admire and respect her.

    Three more days to Iowa!!!! Do I have any cuticles left???

  5. The threads here keep getting better and better. I really like this one a lot. Can I count on the next one being the one that announces she clobbered the competition in the Caucus?

  6. “[Hint: Hillary Clinton is 44 even if Bloomberg runs (Obama loses big – Edwards loses too).]”

    Ok, that takes care of those two, but how does it stop the Repugs in the GE? Do we know that ticket will take more votes from them than from Hillary?

  7. What a jerk dept.
    Plouffe commits the Cardinal sin of RAISING expectations for his guy…

    “Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses.

    “We think we’re going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios,” Plouffe said.

    Dan Leistikow, a spokesman for John Edwards, noted that the former North Carolina senator has gained ground in the past few weeks, beating Obama in some recent polls.

    “John Edwards is surging in Iowa as undecided caucus goers are swinging his way based on his record of standing up to powerful interests on behalf of middle class families,” said.
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    Plouffe said he believes Obama’s campaign has the strongest Iowa organization and will benefit most from undecided voters, noting that “independents obviously are the pathway to the presidency.”’

    He also said Obama is positioned to do well or win in other early caucus or primary states.

    “We do not think we could be better positioned to win the Democratic nomination,” Plouffe said.”

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS/71231014/-1/NEWS04

    Isn’t it great that OB’s campaign seems to be a, “Gaffe-machine”, in these final days before the caucus?

  8. Love the video! It is nice and simple, but best of all it’s right to the point. Also, read the RNC’s response and must say they are a little…’concerned’ with her plans. I guess listing nine Bush policy continuations followed by “______ in 2008” is just not as catchy. 🙂

  9. More encouraging news…

    Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead

    InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll: Clinton and Edwards in Virtual Tie in Iowa
    Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff reports

    December 31, 2007 — Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

    Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.
    The survey was conducted Jan. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.

    Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.
    Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:

    Edwards: 41%
    Clinton: 34%
    Obama: 25%
    “We removed from the results the percentages allocated for ‘other candidates’ and ‘undecideds,’ and then reallocated the support of those who are supporting candidates without the required 15% level of support,” said Jeff Shusterman of InsiderAdvantage’s research partner, Majority Opinion Research.

    “We then merged these totals with the percentages of support the top candidates received on the first ‘ballot.’ This is the same methodology we used in 2004,” he said.
    InsiderAdvantage CEO/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery offered this analysis:

    “What many who look at the Iowa Democratic Caucus may miss is that its delegates are apportioned much like the old “county unit system” once used in Southern states. This gives rural areas, where Edwards is running strong, the opportunity to have a disproportionately significant impact on the ultimate outcome.
    “Regardless of geographic areas of support, the Edwards ‘second choice’ percentage has remained well over 50% since we first released a second-choice survey in early December,” he said. As a follow-up to that earlier survey, InsiderAdvantage has polled the race every night since Dec. 26.

    “The overall trend lines have changed very little over the last several days,” Towery said. “Generally, every night shows Clinton with a slight lead, Obama losing steam, and Edwards hanging in close to Clinton. Moreover, the trends show that Edwards consistently is the second choice of those whose first choice candidate is below 15%.
    “Probably the race will tighten. I would expect that the reallocated numbers will tighten among the top candidates as well.

    “The most that can be said now is that Clinton likely will appear to be the leader in many caucus locations on the first round, but not by a big margin. If Edwards’ second preference position holds, he may very well be the upset winner on Jan. 3.
    “As for the Republicans, I’m not comfortable releasing numbers yet. I’ve seen enough GOP polls in 28 years to know when some sort of shift is taking place.

    “The Republican numbers right now are all over the place and, in my experience, that means the numbers probably won’t settle until immediately prior to the voting,” Towery said.”

    http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1231_103.aspx

  10. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton entered the Obama-Edwards fray over fighting special interests on Monday afternoon, arguing that her rivals should stop “jumping up and down” and instead devise a strategy to pass health insurance and energy reforms over the objections of drug, health, and oil companies.
    There was a bit of a mixed message, however: Mrs. Clinton began her remarks by saying that Barack Obama and John Edwards were “talking a lot about each other,” yet she was going to stay focused on Iowa voters and the American people and her “new beginning” agenda.
    A few minutes later, she began tearing into her rivals, though not be name.
    She said that Mr. Edwards’ angry-sounding salvos against “special interests” were “great applause lines and speeches, and people get really excited, because we all know that the power has shifted way too much to the wealthy and well connected.”
    “But I submit, it’s easy to talk about,” she said.
    “I’ve taken on the drug companies, I’ve taken on the health insurance companies, I’ve taken on the oil companies, and I intend to keep doing it. You don’t have to do it by telling and screaming – save your energy, get the job done.
    “Instead of generating a lot of heat and rolling your hands and jumping up and down,” she continued, “let’s figure out how we’re gonna beat ‘em, how we’re gonna take the power back.”

    thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/clinton-joins-fight-over-fighting-special-interests/

  11. That is good news. I’m perfectly OK with Edwards finishing first in Iowa, as long as Obama is third.

    Edwards also caught up to Obama in the Zogby tracking poll out today.

    Major Garrett’s report on Fox about the DMR being bad for Obama could very well be true. It fits with everything else we’re hearing.

  12. Since Insider Advantage last poll report on 12/18, Hillary gained 6, E 3, and O lost 5.

    However, the second choice worries me. If Biden and Richardson people decide it’s not worth caucusing, it’s a disadvantage to Hillary. Hillary needs a huge turnout.

  13. And I bet Plouffe predicting Obama’s going to win Iowa is designed to keep his supporters from panicking. Notice no one from Edwards’ or Hillary’s campaigns is saying anything remotely like that.

  14. I actually like the news of the JRE ‘surge’ (to use a favorite media term) to first and a BHO ‘drop’ to third place. I think this will do wonders for HRC in New Hampshire. However, I am still going to be pulling for a WIN in Iowa!

  15. The Bhutto assassination, which highlights the need for someone with foreign policy experience, Axelrod’s asinine remark, and Obama’s over-the-top “I am King of the World” stump speeches are taking it’s toll on Obama’s poll numbers.

  16. The strategy is to LOWER expectations in any intelligent campaign;

    By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

    DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – For presidential candidates in Iowa, it’s not just about winning or losing. It’s how you play the expectations game.

    The big winner of Iowa’s kick-off presidential nominating contest on Thursday may not come in first, and the big loser could be a candidate who finishes ahead of most of the field.

    The goal is beating expectations — and every four years the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire elevate or doom candidates who confound predictions and pull a surprise….Aware of the risks, politicians work hard to keep expectations low. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Iowa polls for months, frequently emphasizes what a difficult challenge she faces in the state.

    “When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I’m doing in Iowa,” Clinton, one of the best-known politicians in the United States, said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3135801120071231

    The difference between experience and egotism…

  17. The strategy is to LOWER expectations in any intelligent campaign;

    By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

    DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – For presidential candidates in Iowa, it’s not just about winning or losing. It’s how you play the expectations game.

    The big winner of Iowa’s kick-off presidential nominating contest on Thursday may not come in first, and the big loser could be a candidate who finishes ahead of most of the field.

    The goal is beating expectations — and every four years the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire elevate or doom candidates who confound predictions and pull a surprise….Aware of the risks, politicians work hard to keep expectations low. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Iowa polls for months, frequently emphasizes what a difficult challenge she faces in the state.

    “When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I’m doing in Iowa,” Clinton, one of the best-known politicians in the United States, said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3135801120071231

    The difference between experience and egotism…

  18. My apologies to anyone in advance who may be from Wyoming. I have to chaulk this up to it being very cold there right now, as the Casper Star-Tribune is endorsing Mitt Romney and BHO as their parties’ nominees. Ready for why BHO?

    Barack Obama has emerged from the Democratic pack with, as his latest book proclaims, the “audacity of hope.” He represents a dramatic change, replacing old-style politics based on exchanging money and favors with an approach that promises equality and fairness.

    What can Obama offer Wyoming? The senator from Illinois has shown he is in tune with this state’s strong support for the coal industry. Obama realizes that while it’s necessary to reduce our carbon footprint to combat global warming, that hardly means shunning coal-fired plants.

  19. pm, filbertsf – the Fowler article is another “blame the staff” manifestation. The problem is that Obama is a bore, does not live up to the hype.

    Fowler wants to blame the staff for not taking an interest in the woman who knew FDR and not knowing how many people are in the room and how many of those are undecided. But Fowler is wrong. Yes, a good staff should be up on all that information and should be looking to “plant” a question from the woman who knew FDR, but the problem is BO. [Side note: why was Fowler helping the Obama campaign? Is Fowler a journalist?]

    The event sounds like a total bore with a total bore speaker. The problem is Obama not his campaign workers.

  20. LMAO reed061 @ 2:16!

    I guess listing nine Bush policy continuations followed by “______ in 2008″ is just not as catchy.

    Great ad for Hillary! 😀

  21. More amateur-hour antics from camp OB;

    “Plouffe’s key points:

    Obama’s crowds are the largest. (Based on????)
    Obama is the strongest second choice candidate.(Actually, it’s Edwards)
    Obama is the pick of Independents.
    Obama is drawing undecideds to his homestretch events. (They leave undecided too.)
    Obama will be viable in more precincts that John F. Kerry was in 2004.(He said Kerry was not viable in about 10 percent of precincts.)
    Plouffe said the campaign knocked on over 90,000 doors over the weekend. “We’ve been drawing consistently bigger crowds than either of our two main oppornents,” he noted. “…We’re not just trying to build crowds for the sake of optics.”

    They are back to where they were MONTHS ago, when all they really had to tout was the number of curiosity-seekers they were attracting. It’s tough to understand the rationale behind RAISING expectations so high when OB could easily wind up THIRD, as no matter how close the final percentages are, anything less than a solid (and increasingly unlikely) win will be viewed by Big Media (thanks to BO’s campaign’s arrogance) as a BIG LOSS!

    hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/12/obama_campaign_1.html

  22. From David Yepsen:

    So who is winning the argument that he or she would be the winning candidate in November? Clinton might be gaining an edge among the Democrats, and Republicans remain divided, according to a new poll.

    Among likely caucus-goers, 34 percent of Democrats said Clinton had the best chance of defeating the GOP nominee, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll released last week. Obama and Edwards were tied at 22 percent each.

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007712300303

  23. Big Tent Democrat writes about the BHO media conference call:

    Alrighty then Axelrod and Co. No spinning a loss into a win now on January 3. The Clinton and Edwards campaigns played the usual “do well” platitude games.

    So here is the Obama campaign, in the face of dropping poll numbers, confidently predicting victory. Bluster? Strategy? I dunno, but it will be hard to back off of this if they do NOT win.

    [snip]

    On second spin, I think this is REALLY bad for Obama. This conference call seems a grievous mistake to me. The Media will now pick up on the seeming desperation of the Obama campaign.

    Big mistake. Should have played it precisely the opposite way. Do the whole “we expect to do well” schtick.

    Based on this, I now predict TODAY Edwards wins Iowa, Clinton second, Obama third.

  24. Just had a total “duh” moment. From my perspective, Hillary is sitting in the catbird seat right now. BHO is tanking, knows it, and his crew are spinning in hopes the media buys their BS. In an attempt to beat off the bill collector, BHO is trying to dirty JRE up just in case Iowans care about 527s and inferring that he’s an ambulance-chasing shyster, etc. Smacks of total desperation. I don’t care how many Illinois license plates are parked at his events, that won’t translate into caucus votes for BHO.

    JRE has to defend himself, which he should, but then folks will get real tired of all this childish bickering at some point.

    Hillary can just sit back and let the bratty children play.

  25. B Merryfield,

    It is very hard to poll new voters. Hillary has a lots of new voters(old wowen). I still think Hillary is the winner.

  26. Comments from MyDD:

    Edwards’s Iowa success helps Hillary a lot more than it helps Edwards. As long as there are two anti-Hillary candidates, they split that vote and Hillary slides right on through.

    Edwards has such low nomination odds in part because of where he stands in polls, but also because of his financial problem which, because he accepted matching funds, cannot be repaired even if he wins in Iowa.

    Bill Clinton claimed voters were “rolling the dice” with Obama. Bill’s a smart man. Don’t play poker with him unless you are really good at math and reading bluffs. Odds are he’s smiling when he sees people rolling the nomination dice on Edwards.

  27. iowa caucus prediction ( you heard it here first )

    1. clinton
    2. edwards
    3. biden
    4. richardson
    5. dodd
    6. kucinich
    7. gravel
    8. BO

  28. alcina, I like that list. BTW, I had a robocall come from Kucinich a little while ago but when I answered after the first ring there was nobody on line. Odd.

    B Merry:

    Must have been a call made from UFO.

  29. BHO & Co. are likely trying to raise expectations so that their supporters still show up and caucus rather than not showing up if they think BHO does not stand a chance. I still think it’s a dangerous game to play, however, because if they come in third or worse, as alcina predicts, eighth (wishful thinking!) this “prediction” will be egg on their faces going into NH that will likely not wash easily. Just a thought. Strange expectations game, but probably a lot of psychology involved in this reverse game as well.

  30. If Bidden, Dodd and Richardson supporters really want to see Congress get things done they should not support Edwards in the second round. He has said he will not negotiate with insurance companies nor drug manufacturers. He plans on dictating to them what they will do, this plan is totally laughable. Every preschooler knows the art of give and take. Bipartisan compromise is the only way to accomplish anything with the current makeup of congress. He will polarize Washington even more than it already is. The only candidate out of the three that has a bipartisan record to stand on is Hillary.

  31. BTW, tonight is a big night not just because of New Year and Des Moines Register poll. It’s also last night of the quarter.

  32. From BHO’s campaign:

    After ten months of building an unmatched organization across New Hampshire, the Obama campaign is gearing up for an unprecedented Get Out the Vote effort in the final stretch leading up to the Primary.

    More than 700 town and ward captains spanning the state from Manchester to Berlin, Keene to Portsmouth, and everywhere in between have committed to working all day on Primary Day to ensure supporters in their neighborhoods get to the polls.

    They will be trained, dispatched, debriefed (and fed) at more than 100 canvass staging locations, plus dozens of phone banks for areas that can’t be canvassed.

    Together they will knock on hundreds of thousands of doors in the days between the January 3 Iowa Caucus and the January 8 New Hampshire Primary.

    —-
    BTW, I will be among the missing all day Friday through Tuesday, although as I’ll have computer access, I may check in occasionally but won’t be able to hang out. Sorry, secret mission and not for BHO (although his office is next door .. hint, hint).

  33. Missed this: “10,000 yard signs have been distributed around the state.”

    They must all be buried in the snow or blow away. Not many around here, as I’ve written before.

  34. thats right admin forgot about that..wanna see where there money went lol.especailly one in particular and thats not hill..its is gonnabe a big great night im staying home i hope they show bill hill chelsea..on the town NYE…that poll will probably be out like 10pm after the local news cycle..

  35. Admin-

    As year-end reports don’t come out until January 31st, when will we see the totals posted with the FEC (and opensecrets)?

  36. yep i think hes gonna get real nasty till thurs.i said it yesterday..“That’s why I didn’t become a trial lawyer,” Obama told the Newton audience — a clear dig at Edwards, who made millions in the courtroom.oh i can’t wait until its over and he gets a lolipop to take home..

  37. Realist, the campaigns which raised the most money will release the news in the next few days. Release of good news might help a little bit with momentum so we expect New Years Day or January 2 will be the release date for much of the finance information.

    As to interim reports, they might appear around January 15 – by then it will be pretty much academic.

  38. bmerryfield that about right for the caspar star tribune…dont let them fool ya they are all repugs…rommney..to close to utah…lol…remember pete williams he was local reporter for the news in casper/went on to washington…i can see hillary being the winning cowgirl… but bho no winning cowboy..

  39. I love the list that had Obama coming in LAST!!!! LOL!!!! I think he MIGHT make it ahead of Kucinch and Gravel but not the rest!!!

    Also love the “Obama is FInished” line, too!!! *rubs hands together*

  40. There’s a blog by Dan Balz on WaPo’s The Trail about how Hillary is laying low to close the year.

    “But what is striking about the final days of one of the most fascinating campaigns any of us have witnessed here in Iowa is how Clinton has avoided becoming the focus of attention. The national front-runner has become, if not invisible, virtually ignored — and that seems just the way she wants it.

    Barack Obama and John Edwards have zeroed in on one another. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd hunger for attention. Clinton is methodically moving around the state, saying the same thing at virtually every stop. She has given a few interviews, but made little news.

  41. The link to the article filbertsf mentions is here: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/12/31/a_diligent_clinton_keeps_her_h.html

    And includes this from Wolfson: “We’re locked and loaded on our message,” said Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s communications director. “Other candidates are making news by attacking other candidates. They’re going to run their race. The race we’re going to run is focusing people on who’s ready to be president.”

  42. Here’s another sign that Obama is beginning to tank: Markos is criticizing him on the front page of Daily Kos. There is blood on the ground, and the vultures are starting to circle.

  43. DCDEMOCRAT you are right the vultures are in the air. Markos is right one more instance of BHO repeating right wing talking points. What a jerk!!

  44. I loved that “Obama is Finished” also. The reason given in the article was he has no programs. I tried to call attention to that earlier when I asked for the campaign to find something similar to the “Where’s the beef?” that Mondale used.

    He has talked a lot about alll the changes he is going to make, but he hasn’t named any changes other than the ones he copied from Hillary. I have never been able to understand why he is considered the “change candidate”.

    I realize my argument is an old one, but I don’t know all the more modern approaches to campaigning that the rest of you do. I’m not in your league anyway. Never was. I’ve been out of the country for fifteen years, and it’s hard to get back up to speed. This site is helpful, and I’m very excited to be able to follow the election here.

    Thanks, everybody, and Happy New Year!

  45. des Moines register runs editorials from candidates’ hometown papers –
    hillary’s is spot on. biden, dodd, richardson good too. edwards and obama? a little mixed and interesting at certain points (clarence page: “The drip, drip of further disclosures has led us to advise Obama in an editorial to reveal all that his own campaign’s investigation of the Rezko relationship found – before somebody else leaks it for him.”)

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/
    apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/OPINION01/712300322/1036/Opinion

  46. I just got an email from my buddy, Michelle Obama(!) in which she lies like she breathes…

    (Realist) —

    I’m here on the ground in Iowa with Barack, our daughters, his sisters, and thousands of supporters and volunteers.

    The energy is contagious, and we all have the sense that we’re on the verge of something incredible.
    (or at least on the verge of making a truly INCREDIBLE statement.)

    We’re seeing crowds TWO or THREE times the size our opponents are attracting. We’re bringing new people into the process and bringing back some of those who are fed up with politics-as-usual.”

    I guess those OB true-believers will swallow any line they throw out there…

  47. Here is a moment of comic relief before tonight’s festivities:

    http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2007/12/31/16617/845/281#c281

    Elise, the Daily Kos user who is responsible for the coordinated banning of supporters of Edwards and Clinton, vituperates after Kos posts a diary critical of Obama’s decision to reiterate Republican clichés in an attempt to distinguish himself from John Edwards, who Obama derisively labels a “trial lawyer.” Read the comment, and notice how Elise G. Harding, an Illinois resident who is “pounding the pavement” for Obama in Iowa, is only capable of typing insipid comments. Also notice how Elise G. Harding knows nothing about Clinton’s many legislative achievements. I cite Elise G. Harding’s comment, as this is the bilge Obama supporters are dumping on the doorsteps of Iowa voters.

  48. This is odd:

    “The energy is contagious, and we all have the sense that we’re on the verge of something incredible.
    (or at least on the verge of making a truly INCREDIBLE statement.)”

  49. very happy to hear about the Rasmussen and Obama having 51% unfavorable (now higher than Hillary)…the Obama-ites recite the unfavorables of Hillary as main mantra, and now they can just stuff it.

  50. December 31, 2007, 5:27 pm
    Edwardes Take On Michelle Obama

    By Julie Bosman

    EMMETSBURG, Iowa – It was the Edwardses versus Michelle Obama on the campaign trail today.

    An audience member asked Mr. Edwards a question that wasn’t audible to the rest of the room, so Mr. Edwards repeated it.

    “What he’s saying, is he’s hearing directly from the other campaigns, including Senator Obama’s wife, that well, Edwards, he may be a great candidate, but is he going to have enough money to go on and be able to win,” Mr. Edwards said.

    “Can I say something first of all? We’re not going to have an auction in Iowa, we’re going to have an election,” he said, to enthusiastic applause.

    But Mr. Edwards was just getting started. “Do you understand how frightening it is to a campaign and a bunch of campaign workers and a candidate that have raised $100 million, to have somebody even with them, who’s spending, whatever it is, a third, or a tenth, I don’t even know how much it is, of what they’re spending?” he said. “I mean, really! It scares them to death because what they know is, what this candidate and campaign stands for is working! They get it, they completely get it. So when you’re resorting to arguments about how much money somebody has, you’re in a bad place.”

    “If they have more money and the money’s what matters, why are they worried about me?” he said, adding that the argument was “unbelievably weak.”

    Then Elizabeth Edwards, who was also on stage, jumped in. “I just want to say, cause I’ll say it later and I don’t want to forget,” she said. “You may not be surprised. But I am surprised, and disappointed, in Michelle.”

    The audience was shocked into silence for a full four seconds, until Mr. Edwards moved things along by asking, “Who’s next?”

    But he addressed the money issue at a news conference after the event, saying that he would have “plenty of money” to take on a Republican in the general election.

    “Once I’m the nominee, if I’ve beaten them, having been outspent in the ways I just spoke about, taking on a Republican who carries George Bush’s baggage will be a piece of cake.”

    The audience was SHOCKED into silence…

    thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/edwardes-take-on-michelle-obama/

  51. you guys have got to see Bill Clinton at Missouri Valley event — it just ended live on C-Span. Oh, he was masterful and it is such a joy to see a real genius work the room and really inspire.

  52. Michelle Vs Elizabeth. Oy….this is turning into the Jerry Springer show. I have popcorn out and I feel more is to come.

  53. Per Taylor Marsh’s blog:

    Obama bringing Gore and Kerry into the fray:

    I don’t want to go into the next election starting off with half the county already not wanting to vote for Democrats, we’ve done that in 2004, 2000.” – Barack Obama

    Good one, Mr. Hope and Change! Bash the man whose endorsement you and every other Democrat are coveting.

  54. Don’t bash me for saying this but I can’t stand the wives of either Obama OR Edwards!!! They both have BIG Mouths and have attacked Hillary, especially Elizabeth Edwards. I know she has Cancer and I feel sorry for her but I just don’t like her!!

    Bill WAS Great on C-Span. I just wrote on Taylor Marsh – I don’t know why everybody doesn’t vote for Hillary!! She’s done more than Repugnants have done in 10 lifetimes!!

  55. Could this work out any better for Clinton?

    Edwards and Obama going at it can only lead to more Iowans disliking them. Here is how I see it. All this second choice stuff floating around shows Edwards and Obama getting the most 2nd choices from the lower tier. They keep fighting that cause their likability to drop and more and more Dodd, Kucinich, Richardson voters get fed up with the feuds and either go home after their candidates are not viable, all join support for the most viable of the 3 (likely Biden) or support the one front runner who has avoided these current wars – Clinton.

  56. Look, I still think Edwards will be ahead in this poll and will likely win Iowa. I’d love for it to be hillary, but come on, Edwards has lived there for four years practically. It’d be hard to beat him there.

  57. My gut feeling is there is a hidden Hillary vote which is not being counted. I hate to say this but there is a Tom bradley factor and Obma’s numbers are inflated. I am not too bothered about Edwards because he really has no base beyond Iowa.

  58. BMerry, I saw Mike Wright a couple of hours ago. And, yes, it is him. He is the kinda guy who wanders around talking to himself and generally antagonizing folks with is creepiness. I was in my local gas station chit chatting when he came in. We all continued talking about him in veiled terms until I left. Just imagine a guy who probably saves his urine in jars and you;ll get a good picture of him. Please discount his post from the wayback machine.

  59. Boy!!!! he is good. I remember I took my son with me in 1992 for Clinton/Gore rally. He loved it so much. He is family doc and supporter of Hillary.

  60. I, too, just saw Bill’s speech. He was electrifying. I hate to say this, but Bill sells Hillary better than she can sell herself. He has the gift of storytelling. He can go from being serious to humorous with great ease.

    His closing anecdote about the caddy/fireman tell was just heartwrenching, yet inspiring.

    But I digress… it’s getting to be nervous time as DMR poll will be released soon. How can I go out and enjoy New Years when I know what awaits me when I get back?

  61. filbertsf, I totally agree with you . I think Hillary would be a lot better president than Bill. I think she is doer not a talker. In my opinion she will be a one of the best presidents in our history.

  62. Speaking about Bill, there is a godawful sexist piece at the Politico written by some Elizabeth Drew.

    Does anyone know if that Drew woman is seriously thick, Republican or both?

  63. Happy New Year to everyone, but especially to Hillary and our supporters on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the Super Tuesday states as well.

  64. hi hillfans, i have to run to work in a few minutes, but i signed up for the dmr text alert so i can get the latest polls and news.

  65. Hi All —

    What a day. Drove down to Atlantic to do publicity for Bill’s Atlantic event. Went over to the Cass Community Center to help manage it — had 500 sign-ins — it was a big success. I love Iowans — so friendly, and they forgive what they call my “east coast accent.” Atlantic, IA turned out to hear BC!

    Tomorrow I’ll be in Council Bluffs for the Hillary event at MidAmerica Center. Can’t wait!

    Was interviewed a bit by Newsday, which is a NY based news source.

    To emjay: really loving Loess scenery. Western IA has stepped plains with a density second only to regions in China. I’m loving every minute of my stay here.

    I’ve got lots of pics but my card reader isn’t working w/ the laptop I brought with me — will probably have them to share once I get home.

  66. ‘m so glad you’re liking it, and us. Start bundling up a bit more…temps to start dropping tonight, low as 0 to -5 by wed morn and then back up to 40ish by Thursday…thank you, god.

  67. Want to clear up some “Iowa myths.”

    I was a little worried because we always here that Iowans resent out-of-staters. Not true! Not true!

    I’ve never met friendlier people. In Atlantic I got pegged left and right as a native of the east coast — but, I’ve been invited to Ragbrai (?) bike event, and so much more. People appreciate that folks outside of Iowa are interested in the process and motivated to join Iowans.

    And the Loess scenery moves the soul …

  68. Emjay — yes, ma’am. I understand it’s a high of 15 tomorrow and the winds …

    If we don’t meet this time, no worries — I’m coming back in the spring to take advantage of all you have to offer!

  69. from the poll discussion:

    Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register’s last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

    The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

  70. emjay: you’re kidding, right?

    If this is in reference to my post, no. There’s probably a lot you take for granted.

  71. surprised yet somehow not surprised, on a level i could not imagine obama’s team being that unwise about expectations. there is a huge number of independents and first-time caucus goers in that poll. also odd that it doesn’t track with the other trends (pollster.com) in iowa lately.

  72. I just have one comment to make.

    I spoke to some Obama supporters at the Atlantic event. I’ll mention that probably at least 1/3 were hard-core Hillary and 1/3 undecided, but a few Obama ppl in attendance.

    Here’s what I heard — they could not forgive BC for his transgressions in the oval office. BO — the beneficiary.

    We’ll see. We’re working hard. I don’t have a statewide perspective, but I’ve not seen evidence of a large BO lead.

  73. Correction. Edwards is 25% among democrats, not 35%. Hillary leads among democrats.

    Party Affiliation Obama Clinton Edwards

    Democrats 27 33 25

    Independents 39 15 24

  74. Disappointing DMR poll indeed… But, then again, given the MoE it’s a tossup between the three of them. So nothing new we didn’t already really know.

    And it helps to downplay the expectations too.

  75. Wait HLR til you experience the

    Register’s Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa

    10,000 riders, one week, great scenery, one hell of a rolling party.

  76. Emjay — yes, that’s what I was told about. I’m an avid biker at home. I made arrangements to rent a bike here to try out the Wabash, but the weather has quashed my plans — no matter, I will return!

  77. ra1029,
    Have you got any idea about how many independents really take part in the caucus process? To an outsider like me (outside Iowa that is) it seems that the caucuses are a bit intimidating and that you have to be quite committed to actually go away and caucus. Is it really a significant number of independents that caucuses when the chips are down?

  78. The press seems to be finally waking up however. If he should come in first there has to be more negative attention…we’ve seen cracks in his coverage lately.

  79. DMR was right in 2004 but it could be wrong this time because it doesn’t match what was reported in the ground.

  80. Look at this. Obama’s primary support is in 18-34 year old category.

    Age Group Obama Clinton Edwards

    18-34 56 11 16
    35-54 33 26 21
    55 and older 22 30 30

  81. Sixty percent would be attending for the first time, reflecting the emphasis the campaigns have put on expanding the pool of participants.

    wow, 60%. is this really going to happen? whose first-time people will show up? also, another question. if hillary’s people are dem base voters who know how the caucus system works, what happens then. very interesting.

  82. BTW, look out for the “war of the crowds” tomorrow in Council Bluffs. Hillary and Obama have events scheduled … at the same time.

  83. But will those independents really partake in the caucuses??? And in sufficient numbers? In primaries independents regularly come out in smaller numbers (relative their strength of the electorate) than does party affiliated voters. Doesn’t the same logic apply for the caucuses?

  84. clintondem99, you’re right. Oh boy! We’re going to hear from Tweety tomorrow. Good thing I stopped watching that show.

    In a question about how many first-timers in 2004, desmoinesdem of mydd states:

    about 55 percent, but (none / 0)

    that was the first competitive caucus race since 1988. Obviously a lot of iowans had moved to the state or come of voting age since then.

    No way will 60 percent of caucus-goers be first-timers on Thursday.

  85. 60% turnout of new caucus goers means turnout in the 200,000 to 240,000 range — more than double 2004, which nearly doubled the 2000 turnout.

    72% of Obama’s supporters have to reregister as Democrats to caucus on Thursday.

    This poll is great news. Now expectations are sky high for Obama as he is the presumed nominee. Yet, he has a turnout scenario that is unfavorable to him, losing to both Edwards and Clinton among registered Democrats and prior caucus goers.

    Ask yourself this. If he believes he is beating Edwards by 8 points, why is he going negative on him?

    The internals of this poll do explain why Obama’s new Iowa ad features only college kids.

  86. Lets keep a perspective here guys. If you look at the body language of all candidates in the last 3-4 days, their internal polls were telling them something. Moreover this poll contradicts with all the other daily tracking polls coming out of Iowa. The reality is somewhere in between. Edwards body language in the last few days does not tell that his tracking poll is showing him coming third.

  87. I don’t understand the way Obama has been acting if the polls show him ahead. Why not go with a positive message.

  88. Exactly hwc. If his internals are showing him doing great, why will his campaign call a press conference and go negative on Edwards?

  89. Remember folks, this is a marathon, and whatever happens Thursday there are lots of miles yet to run–with Hillary having committed support at significant levels in states beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and S. Carolina. I’m convinced that the lion’s share of that support isn’t the type that will dissolve even if (and I’m not predicting this) 3 of the first 4 contests are lost. Remember, BO and JE have built-in advantages in Iowa, and Hill is still competitve.

    Let’s stay positive and not get away from the long-term game plan.

  90. And the thing is, these “independents” can just register as a Dem at the door. The voting system in IA and NH has just got to be changed.

  91. I am not in a celebratory mood at all. I am trying to think positive since other polls are telling us something else. The has to be a reason why Obama is attacking JE. Their internal polls has to be seeing something.

  92. i agree HLR, especially the western 1/3 of the state. Re Rep move to Dem side, even many Indies who usually vote Rep out here…my feeling from them is that they are just so jaded after the Rumsfeld, Gonzales, Scooter mess.

  93. I think after SC all other primary states on Feb 5th are open for democrats only. I don’t believe independents are allowed. That is where Obama’s run will end.

  94. If we’re feeling this way, Edwards supporters must be in the gutters. All week, it’s been about Edwards momentum; how well he handled the Bhutto assassination.

    This is killing them, too. Oh hell, what do I care about them?!

    Sorry folks! I’m going off on a stream-of-consciousness.

  95. meiyingsu, yes, a repub need only re-register as a dem on caucus night.

    Of all the pollsters in IA, I take DMR most seriously. In other words, I’m not going to pooh-pooh the results. I’ve been doing lots of calling and canvassing in western IA. I would say no candidate has a clear edge. Problem is that eastern IA is more favorable to Obama — hawk, if he’s around, can weigh in on that. My point is — I’m bracing myself for a possible obama win in IA (even if only by 1-2 pts). Not something I’m looking forward to or want, but the true test is to get past these caucuses/primaries that are open to Dem only contests. On Feb 5th, all primary contests are closed except GA, I believe. We may be in it for the long haul.

  96. Look at this from Yepsen’s analysis.

    A lot of caucus-goers are first-timers. A whopping 60 percent of the Democrats say this would be their first time at a caucus. Some 40 percent of the Republicans say that.

    * A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren’t all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they’ll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they’re Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.

    That will raise some eyebrows among party pros. While we all know the Democratic turnout will be large, the events just haven’t attracted that many newcomers in the past. If that happens as the poll suggests, the caucuses will no longer be affairs of the party activists and faithful, but more like primaries.

    Will some of these fair-weather Democrats not bother to show up? If they don’t, it will change the outcome. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.

    Or, in the unlikely event just the registered Democrats who say they’ll definitely show up are counted, Clinton gets 33 percent, Obama gets 27 percent and Edwards gets 25 percent.

    * Democrats are on fire. And what if 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers are independents and 5 percent are Republicans? That tells us the GOP is in real trouble, that a lot of Americans want change and that they are turning to the Democrats to find it.

  97. I’m confused. The article says they polled 800 likely democratic caucusgoers yet the same article says O’s support is mostly from republicans and independents. From what list did they call these people from the telephone book???

  98. pm — DMR nailed the correct order in ’04, which means nobody discounts their results. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

  99. yes, this poll doesn’t mesh with obama attacks lately on edwards. i do not understand whatsoever why he would do that if he was coasting. it’s a very odd poll, yepsen seems to hedge on it.

  100. pm, because DMR correctly predicted the order in 2004. In addition, they’re the paper of record in IA.

    I won’t dismiss the DMR poll. I just hope against hope that the result on Thurs will be different.

  101. Also this.

    * A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren’t all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they’ll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they’re Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.

    That will raise some eyebrows among party pros. While we all know the Democratic turnout will be large, the events just haven’t attracted that many newcomers in the past. If that happens as the poll suggests, the caucuses will no longer be affairs of the party activists and faithful, but more like primaries.

    Will some of these fair-weather Democrats not bother to show up? If they don’t, it will change the outcome. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.

    Or, in the unlikely event just the registered Democrats who say they’ll definitely show up are counted, Clinton gets 33 percent, Obama gets 27 percent and Edwards gets 25 percent.

  102. ra1029: That will raise some eyebrows among party pros.

    Oh yes. Here in western IA, the BO supporters I’ve talked to are Repubs. FWIW, I’ve talked some of them out of supporting BO. But the region is much larger than my reach …

  103. If DMR is right, then every othet poll is wrong. Heck, even Yepsen said Obama was plateauing.

    But, hey, if Obama wins the nomination, I will take no pleasure in watching the GOP rip him a new one. However, it will happen, as we all know.

  104. HLR:

    Look at my post above which is from Yespsen’s poll analysis. Obama is getting support from republicans. Hillary still wins if it is primarily democrats. Yepsen even gives the poll break down if the sample is similar to 2004.

  105. My wife just told me that if Obama is the nominee she is going to stay away in 2008. She has always voted for a democrat all her life and voted for obama in 2004 for the senate. She feels he is dishonest.

  106. This is just not right. Allowing so-called “Independents” to just show up and register as a Democrat. Then, in the GE, they switch back to whatever the hell they really are and help the GOP defeat the Democrats.

  107. This is not just right at all. Independents affecting the outcome of a poll AGAIN. Something needs to be changed. Even the repubs have a say who wins by simply going into the caucus and register. This is absolute BS.

  108. I think the reason republicans are switching over to democrats in the primary is to disrupt Hillary’s chances. How else can you explain so many republicans jumping in to a dem primary to vote for a candidate who is for huge tax increases. It is fishy, but it is what it is. Iowa and NH allow independents to vote in the dem primary. We have to live with it.

  109. This is worse than all those charges of voting machines. How is this even a democratic process? This is taking advantage of an obvious loophole.

  110. I think it is a large conspiracy. Republicans have a new stratagy to sabotage the democratic primary to get the weakest dem nominee. Thanks to the dailykos kooks they are suceeding.

  111. what strikes me is, even liberal bloggers who don’t like hillary that much are saying obama is using right wing talking points, attacking democrat base groups (unions and such). well, now, if this poll is accurate i guess he is doing that for a reason. his voters are not majority democrats. it all depends on who shows up. and then what happens when we get to primaries where its democrats only.

  112. ra1029, You are correct. And they will not support Obama in the GE. Count on it.

    BTW, it’s weird that even Yepsen thinks the poll’s kind of iffy in its reliance on non-Dems. It’s conducted by his own paper, for goodness sake.

  113. I think the reason republicans are switching over to democrats in the primary is to disrupt Hillary’s chances.

    No question. Why do you think Karl Rove published an open letter telling Obama how to win the primary.

    You know what’s really disgusting? That Howard Dean and the DNC are aiding and abetting the Republican hijacking of the Democratic primaries by keeping Democrats out of Michigan and Florida in favor of two traditionally Republican states (Iowa and NH) that allow crossover voting.

  114. BHO rise suddendly without any event is suspious unless the Iowans like the way he handle the Benazir Bhutto assissation.

  115. Tell me again why IA and NH have to be first in line? You know, despite what Emjay said, I’m still fumed that two insignificant states with the most nuanced voting process get to decide for the country who can best lead the country.

  116. Look at the following statement from Yepsen.

    * Democrats are on fire. And what if 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers are independents and 5 percent are Republicans? That tells us the GOP is in real trouble, that a lot of Americans want change and that they are turning to the Democrats to find it.

    Does he think that these republicans will still vote a person who promised the biggest tax increase among the dems, save Kucinich come the general? They will simply switch back to republican party and vote him out.

  117. filbertsf:

    Lets not blame Iowa and NH. There are still two days and from Yepsen’s analysis if the sampling of republicans and independents who attend the 2008 caucus is similar to the one in 2004, Hillary wins 31 to 29%. It is just the process where independents are allowed to vote is being taken advantage of by some republicans who want to mess up the dem primaries.

  118. I know ra1029. That’s what upsets me. That you can just walk in, declare yourself a Democrat and vote for person who you think can spoil Hillary’s chances.

  119. “what strikes me is, even liberal bloggers who don’t like hillary that much are saying obama is using right wing talking points, attacking democrat base groups (unions and such). well, now, if this poll is accurate i guess he is doing that for a reason. his voters are not majority democrats.” Excellent point.

    BTW, DMR also has Huckabee up by 6; that’s also out of line with the most recent Iowa polls.

  120. Hi all, you are right. The BHO surge is reported in big media everywhere now. I still think Hillary will win. Because Democrat will not allow republic spoil their nomination process. There should be a deal between Hillary, Edwards, Beden, richardson, etc.

  121. Let me get this straight. Republicans can re-register as democrats now for the primary/caucus and then go back as republicans in GE? What prevents them from sabotaging a race?

    I don’t know much about DMR’s accuracy now or in the past. But 4 days is a long time when we have such neck and neck race and if they ended their polling on Sunday, we have had monumental things happen since.. So sorry to rain on DMR’s parade. I don’t believe they will be right about that kind of a margin now — Yepsen’s analysis shows he does not seem to have a whole lot of confidence in those numbers either.

    The thing, those of you feeling down, remember that Hillary can take this on in all other states and it won’t be over that quickly. Somebody mentioned MD as Obama’s potential win — it won’t happen.

  122. huckabee, yes, that is way out of line, although again that might figure.. if dmr pulls a chunk of gop votes and assumes they register to caucus for obama, those votes might come out of romney’s tally, putting huckabee back up there.

    the whole thing makes me think this is key:
    That will raise some eyebrows among party pros.

    not just on dem side. what happens first, when party pros are the ones really doing the work to turn their voters out, and second, when they see this and get really fired up to make sure their voters turn out because clearly it isn’t in their interest to have independents jump in and take things over.

  123. It’s new year, it’s Elect Hillary Year! Whatever happens in the polls our candidate is not a poor one:

    “DES MOINES – Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign raised more than $100 million in total for 2007, her advisers said Monday night, in addition to $10 million that she transferred from her old Senate campaign account.”

  124. I don’t think all of those Indies and repubs will show up, but if they do I am going to be pissed. This is OUR party’s nomination, and it would not be right for it to be hijacked by almost half of those voting not even being Democrats. A few is fine, but ALMOST HALF?

    BUT – I wonder what will happen with the unpledged delegates? Will they throw in with Hillary? They make up about 20% of the total, and are generally the party faithful.

  125. well, i for one am a registered independent. i am a hillary precinct capt, i will change to dem for the night and switch back to independent next day.

    what do i get from it? almost NO telephone calls, no political junk mail and i’m not on anybody’s list. and there are lots of people like me. the parties abuse their “listed” members, and local governments as well, in many ways.

    i forget the statistics, but the number of registered independents has grown way out of proportion to the two major parties. and personal information security, as well as peace, is part of it.

    BTW I’ve done this since 1976, maybe even ’72.

  126. When the real democrats in Iowa find out that independents and repbus are going to try to take over their caucus, I have faith that they will do something about it. If I was a democrat living in Iowa and I saw this stat, I will be furious.

  127. emjay, that’s interesting. do you expect the dmr picks up on that factor better than other pollsters? and do think other folks who do that care that obama attacks core dem party groups, or does it help him?

  128. Emjay, that’s very alarming. I hope registered democrats choose the Party’s standard bearer at the end of the day. That would be very sad for us otherwise. I wish Biden, Richardson, Edwards supporters, whom are all probably mostly registered Dem’s will realize this guy is winning through independents. I mean no offense to you emjay, but at the end of the day, it’s the party activists that help elect democrats and pass legislation.

  129. the local news stations in san francisco bay areo, have featured several young college kids who have given up their 2 week christmas vacations, to go to iowa, to follow their dreams, to put barack in the white house…

    scary, it really is just scary…

    reading that poll makes me want to barf,
    i dont trust what all the little obamites are going to do in iowa…

  130. Just checked the latest ARG poll for Iowa. They had only 16 percent non-Dems and had Edwards and Obama tied among that group. Weird.

  131. per marc ambinder: Note: Obama’s internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.

    this is such a weird poll compared to the others, and we’re still over the holidays which is also throwing a curveball in there. very at odds with trends from other pollsters. what’s strange to me is i was actually well expecting edwards to surge

  132. Emjay, it makes no sense. If you are Independent because of no calls, not on lists, etc, then how are all these Indies turning up in the polls in such huge numbers?

  133. “Yepsen’s analysis shows he does not seem to have a whole lot of confidence in those numbers either.”

    That is the one silver lining I can see.

  134. No kidding. “Why do college students like Obama so much? I just don’t get it.” I’ve never known young people (I’m pretty young myself) to vote so monolithically.

  135. per marc ambinder: Note: Obama’s internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.
    Exactly what I suspect too. I find it utterly hard to believe that the Iowa caucuses are going to be hijacked by a tsunami of independents. The DMR poll must be an outliner.

  136. let me try to answer what i Think you are asking…

    i don’t know if the poll picks us up…i know that Yepsen knows about the growth in indie registrations cause he’s discussed it on the weekly PBS Iowa Press program more than once.

    I was shown how to do it and I know i’ve taught lots of people to do it, usually as a response to their being ticked off at the invasion of privacy or similar concerns.

    I don’t know if they still do it, but the parties used to SELL their lists, and anybody can go to the courthouse and find out what my affiliation is. the ACLU and the Iowa ACLU would never sell their lists, tho they use them for their own fundraising efforts, if more than our yearly membership fees is not sufficient for a special project for instance.

  137. another_reader, Thanks for the Marc Ambinder note. If there’s no precedent for this many non-Dems voting in an Dem caucus, why would DMR oversample them? Makes no sense for a credible polling org. to do that.

  138. I’ll tell you guys why college kids are for Obama. Because they’re idealistic without a perspective of history. At the stage they are in, life is just in theory. Which is why when you’re younger, you’re more liberal. As you age, and as life takes its toll on you, you lose that idealism. You become practical. You would love for everyone to be equal, but at the same time, you just don’t want to see your paycheck cut in half to pay for all these social nets the gov’t sets up.

    They don’t see that gov’t is about gridlock and the ability to work within that gridlock. All they see is a guy who promises. A guy who tells them to hope and to dream and that’s all it takes to succeed.

    I should know. I was a college kid not too long ago.

  139. If Obama win is somehow skewed toward a particular group, and the fact that can only happen in one of these early states, may stunt his momentum in other states where independents and republicans are not allowed to participate in the primary — this point was made earlier. We just have to wait longer. We should however, watch out for how it gets spun — a quasi-republican candidate on a democratic ticket attracting independents and republicans alike may become more appealing, especially since the republican field is so weak. The big question is if that happens where would that leave us, the true democrats?

  140. Emjay, Paula,
    And worse yet: if there now is a habit among politically active people to register as indies, how on earth are the polling operations supposed to screen such very-likely-caucus-going-indies from the not-so-very-likely-caucus-going-indies. If this is an en vogue habit among activists, that must simply mean that polling in Iowa is even more screwed up than in 2004 and 2000.

  141. In 2004 polls where showing Howard Dean winning, only the DMR poll showed Kerry. Perhaps this year the other polls are correct and DRM is the one that is off..

  142. AmericanGal, I think so too. The DMR was correct in 2004 doesn’t mean it will be correct this time. They over sample independents and republican.

  143. NY Times regarding Des Moines new poll:
    The Clinton campaign said that the Register poll oversampled independent caucus-goers. The Edwards campaign said the paper took its sample during the holiday and over the weekend, which could make it difficult to find a valid, representative sample.

    The Edwards campaign also said that the poll’s suggestion that 60 percent of caucus-goers would be first-timers was at odds with history and that the number of first-timers is usually closer to 20 percent.

    This poll differs from others taken in the past few days.

  144. i talked to alot of iowans tonight for hillary via phone. many told em this-that they felt edwards has momentum and hillary as well. one lady told me she and her friends are dems, but think a black man coul not win election she said folks like her are afraid to tell pollsters they dont support obama. they ont want to be called racists. is this far fetched? it seems pretty logical. what if the dmn poll is inflated out of folks afraid of being called racists?

  145. This year is different and no one knows what to really expect since the caucus is so early and the final campaign pushes were broken up into segments due to Christmas and New Years

  146. ok, one argument against DMR poll. When they were deemed accurate in 2004, 2000, the primary season was different — this time they are moved up and the critical period includes the holidays. Also Bhutto’s assassination as tragic as it is, is seeping into people’s conscience only now — we have had three more crucial days since the poll ended. (this is not all just wishful thinking. Because I am not sure Obama will get a huge momentum from his win, even if he wins, more so if the segment of the population that voted for him seems anomalous — like those SF kids — who are we kidding!)

  147. NY Times regarding Des Moines new poll:
    The Clinton campaign said that the Register poll oversampled independent caucus-goers. The Edwards campaign said the paper took its sample during the holiday and over the weekend, which could make it difficult to find a valid, representative sample.

    The Edwards campaign also said that the poll’s suggestion that 60 percent of caucus-goers would be first-timers was at odds with history and that the number of first-timers is usually closer to 20 percent.

  148. texan:
    In past elections when I have been polled, I never told them who I was really voting for. I just never thought it was anybody’s business, but mine let alone someone I don’t know calling and asking me.

  149. Good point from Mark Penn.

    The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

    When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

    The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

    The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

    Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
    Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
    Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/18: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
    Research 2000, 12/27-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
    ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
    Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22

    So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

    The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

    When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

    The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

    The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

    Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
    Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
    Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/18: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
    Research 2000, 12/27-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
    ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
    Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22

    So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

    http://www.hillaryclinton.com/blog/view/?id=19621

  150. I don’t know how pollsters choose their samples…I would also note that many question polls of the last 4 years because of the increase in cell-only telephone ownership. I’m now one of those people too.

  151. ra1029, since it’s New Years, I thought I should apologize to you for being rude yesterday when you had that second choice thing showing Edwards with a significant lead.

    I’ve just invested so much time, money, and emotion into Hillary’s campaign that I can be quite unbearable when the tides changes to something that is not to my liking.

    I’m sure most of you have done the same. I just get easily riled up than most.

    So, with that, I apologize ra1029.

  152. No problem, filbertsf. The DMR polling is accurate, IMO. However, the only difference I have is in how they analyzed it. Once they got all the data they wanted, they applied a 55, 40, 5 percent model to interpret the results. Like Mark Penn and Yepsen said, if they had adopted a historical 80, 19, 1% model, it would have shown Hillary winning.

    Basically once you have the numbers you could choose to interpret your results with any ratios you want and accordingly your results will differ.

  153. im with rjk on this one…they did this during the holidays..

    texan..is this far fetched..nope its probably true,

  154. This business of using a new polling method throw the whole “reliability” of the DMR poll into question. Since it hasn’t been used before how does anyone know how reliable it will be. That should be brought up in articles and commentary in the MSM as I would think this is an important point.

    Also, Obamas polls must be showing something different too otherwise his recent behavior doesn’t make sense.

  155. i wont pretend to understand the polling, but i heard one obama spokesman say yesterday, that most of their voters dont have landlines, and so they dont get polled, and they said there will be a significant error made for that reason…

    is that so?

  156. This business of using a new polling method throw the whole “reliability” of the DMR poll into question.

    It is not the polling method which is new, but the turnout model which they applied to their dataset.

  157. ra1029, if two ways of looking at data come up with different results how can you trust anything about the poll at all? Are you saying that they choose a model to look at the data that may not reflect the actual voting that will happen?

    Did the DMR choose the different turnout model because they think it’s more accurate or because it’s just their “best guess” on what’s going to happen?

  158. I just had an epiphany. I think Hill will win in Iowa. Woman from all age cohorts in Iowa, are just going to decide that have to do something they have never done before. They are going to go caucus for Hillary.

  159. ra1029, the DMR model means that there will be a mass turn out on Jan.3. 250,000 to 350,000.

    It actually about 200000 (110,000 dems, 10,000 republicans, 80,000 independents) . Last time, I believe it was around 120,000 (96,000 dems, 22,000 independents, 2,000 repubs)

  160. I have to jump in here! Don’t get too depressed. I think this poll is out of whack, however, the narrative alone propped by the MSM will likely push ‘undecides’ in to Obama’s corner for a victory on caucus night.

    If Obama wins IA, he’ll sure win NH, and SC… No doubt he’ll have an upper hand propped by MSM, but he’ll get creamed in GE. If Obama wins IA, Clinton’s campaign’s strategy will quickly shift to later, big states…

    Everybody is saying DRM poll is reliable. This is just media spin. They nailed 2004 caucus order, but Zogby’s final #s were almost identical with theirs, they were just lucky to get Edwards right.

    Their last poll: Kerry 26, Edwards 23, Dean 20, Gephardt 18.

    DRM made a huge blunder in 2004 presidential election in Iowa. Nobody is talking about this. Their last poll projected a Kerry win… Kerry 48, Bush 45. Final results: Bush 50, Kerry 49.

  161. Did the DMR choose the different turnout model because they think it’s more accurate or because it’s just their “best guess” on what’s going to happen?

    I don’t know their reasoning behind it. However, they themselves mention it and caution us from reading too much into this poll. Infact, both Yepsen and Mark Penn make the same point. I don’t think they arbitrarily picked that turn out model. They must have used some sort of sampling to come up a guestimate (estimate) of what the turnout model could be. Since it is so different from historical models, they themselves are kind of giving a cautionary note that they could be wrong if their turnout model is wrong.

  162. mj,

    I think Obama will probably score victory in IA due to the incoming coverage of this poll. I doubt the victory margin will be 7 points though.

  163. ra1029, do you believe that BHO can get that many ind and rep out to caucua for him?

    I don’t know about that. Someone from Iowa like Emjay can clue you in better because like Emjay said an independent could be anybody. Even Emjay is an independent.

  164. The DMR poll is good and bad news for hillary. More of Demo will turn out becuase of the poll but more BHO backer will turn out too.

  165. ra1029, odd that they would choose a new model at this time. I am assuming other pollsters are using more traditional models and thus are getting similar results bacause of it. It looks like the DMR is expecting a larger than usual turnout but in actuality they, like everyone else, don’t know exactly the number of people who will attend the caucuses.

    I think they should have put a disclaimer on their poll in addition to the Yepsen comments.

  166. Iowa caucus does not have a good track record of picking eventual winners. Why are we hung up on this so much? If Obama wins IA, it will be a wake up call to many at the prospect of him as the potential nominee — may be that will shed a different light on him at that point for all the other states.

  167. AmericanGal,

    I don’t believe they weighed their raw numbers at all based on any model. Anyway, this is bad news, Karl Rove must be smiling. Republican party’s only chance of defeating democrats is to choose a weakest opponent, looks like they will succeed in IA and NH.

    They are afraid of Clinton, and that’s why they’ll do everything they can to stop her at any cost, even if means to meddle in democratic party’s primaries.

  168. ra1029, odd that they would choose a new model at this time.

    Probably, their sampling is telling them that there are lot of first time caucus goers who are promising to attend the caucus this time and hence based on some sampling methodology they estimated an increased turnout of first time caucus goers.
    The 18-34 range is astonishing though. 56% of them are going for Obama. I expected a high % for Obama there, but still 56%?

  169. I don’t think BO’s attacks on Dem core principles helps him with any liberal, liberal-leaning or progressive, and I think his 18-30 yr old worshippers (his core, his base) are for the most part, new to voting, politics and liberal thought.

    They can’t hear what he’s saying because they aren’t really listening…they are just hearing some key words and they THINK they know what he is saying.

    They love being the posse who can screw up several net site blogging threads in 15 minutes And as i’ve said on here several times with no reaction, isn’t it funny how most of them seem to be male?

    I don’t think I saw more than a few dozen young women Obamaites at the JJ dinner for instance, and there were 9000 people there. Same gender unbalance at the Harkin steak fry. I mentioned it to Tom, whom I have known since 1973, and he just shrugged it, or me, off’

    It reminds me of the era when young peoples’ mantra was “you can’t trust anybody over 35.”

    BO is the generous (gas cards and food) big brother they never had. That’s why they only hear what they THINK he is saying, preaching.

  170. so all these others polls out this past week all showing edwards going up and hillary as well are not accurate?! but this one poll is? if it is we are in for a hell of a nomination fight.

  171. I think there will be more independent turn out but 40% is way too many. The people who conducted this poll want a horse race to the end or simply want BHO win.

  172. mj,

    If Obama wins IA based on his strength among inds and GOPers, there’s just no way to stop him in an open primary of NH…

    Those Democratic-leaning independents almost roiled George W. Bush’s dream in NH, this time around, those GOP-leaning indepedents will do the same to stop Hillary Clinton.

    But look, George W. Bush lost NH primary, but he still wins that state in general election. It just shows you how dangerous it is to meddle in other parties’ primaries.

    If Obama gets the nomination, I hardly believe he can actually win Iowa.

  173. I will take Mr Penn’s word since he is a professional pollster so he has a better understanding on polls. I also go back to why Obama all of a sudden switched gears to attacking Edwards.

  174. I don’t believe they weighed their raw numbers at all based on any model.

    Check out this statement from Yepsen:

    A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren’t all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they’ll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they’re Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.

    ———————

    and this one from Mark Penn:

    Register poll adopts unprecedented turnout model

    The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

    When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

    The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

    —————————-

    Both of them are saying that a different turnout model was used.

  175. it’s very odd. all trends at pollster.com also show edwards, hillary trend up, obama sharp trend down, this one is very out of whack. i guess no point in saying that again but the whole thing is bizarre.

  176. mj:

    I repeat again. The poll itself is not out of whack. The turnout model is. If they applied the same turnout model to this poll as ARG poll, they will have identical result.

    See Mark Penn’s statement below.

    “When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.”
    ————————-

    In essence this poll got the same result dataset as say ARG poll. However ARG poll assumed 16% independents will turnup accordingly adjusted their overall numbers. DMR assumed 40% , 5%, 55% will turn up and accordingly adjusted their final tally.

  177. ra1029,

    They did not necessarily weigh the raw data just like the same methodology adopted by Gallup. For instance, 45% of those 800+ who answered their polls during the 3-day period might have been independents or GOPers.

    The other polling firm might have strict screening method & turnout model, they might have chopped off those who are not registered democrats.

    The truth might lie in between.

  178. you guys are rolling-over due to one stinking poll? we’re supposed to just hand over iowa and NH? i don’t think so.

  179. alcina, I agree. As I recall, in both Hill’s Senate races her vote was underpredicted by as much as 5 points. First, she’s win NH. Second, she’ll probably win Iowa. Atleast now she doesn’t have to fight too high expectations.

  180. A poster on another website said that the numbers used by the DMR while not reflecting recent turnout are a closer match for the actual voter registration. He gave these numbers for Iowa

    The most recent Iowa party registration numbers (active voters) are:
    http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/VoterRegStatsByCounty.pdf
    Democratic: 602,947
    Republican: 575,025
    No Party: 740,400

    Is this what they did? If so, is this a good/bad way to look at poll numbers?

  181. Happy New Year guys! Hey, don’t freak out – this is just a poll. And our gal does not need to win Iowa to take the nomination, though I think she still might win it.

    I still say there is no way that 60- 72% first time caucusers actually show up for BHO. Almost all of his people are n00bs. Jump from the normal 20% first-timers to 60- 72% all of a sudden ? Hardly likely. Even if you say that people are more excited about this election, then ALL the percentages go up with big turnout – Dems and experienced too. Why is suddenly the big unprecedented humongous turnout of Indies and n00bs going to happen, but other groups stay the same as 2004? I don’t buy it. Something is off with this, and it may not be bad news for us. I have my thoughts on that, and they are happy thoughts, but I will not share them on a public board. Shhhhhhhhhh! 😉

    Keep with the game plan. It’s all good. Now with this expectation, if Obama even squeaks out a win it’s no good for him. Based on him pumping this poll, he has to win big to not lose face.

  182. ok one more thing, i looked at politicalwire.com where they have a news item on the poll w/caveat mention, and then a couple items down, craig crawford on huck and obama playing defense in the last few days, which again is odd because dmr has both candidates leading

    blogs.cqpolitics.com/
    trailmix/2007/12/huckabee-and-obama-forced-to-p.html

  183. A poster on another website is saying this about the DMR poll analysis–don’t know if this is something valid or not…

    All the respondents in the Register Poll are registered voters–either Democratic, Republican, or No Party. The Independents referenced in the poll are registered No Party voters. To participate in the Democratic caucus, they must switch their party affiliation at the door to Democratic.

    The most recent Iowa party registration numbers (active voters) are:
    http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/VoterRegStatsByCounty.pdf

    Democratic: 602,947
    Republican: 575,025
    No Party: 740,400

    So the Register’s mix, while not reflective of recent turnout, is closer to actual voter registration.

  184. It never ends….. CBS is showing a rerun of a 2000 David Letterman show and naturally the monolog jokes are about Bill and you know who…….

  185. “….However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent….”
    from Demoinesregister.com, what is wrong with this picture? Where is their desire and pride in electing the first woman president (and she is abundantly more qualified than that fruitcake?

  186. I don’t believe Obama camp’s own internals are reflecting the same results since they are most likely adopting the traditional turnout model.

    It is apparent Clinton/Edwards are strengthening their positions among democrats, that’s why Obama camp had to swift message gear. If they were really that confident about their ‘unity’ message, they certainly wouldn’t do so.

    Anyway, we’ll see what’s going to happen in three days. I’m more afraid of the incoming coverage of this poll. Thansfully, they will only have maybe Tuesday to spin.

  187. so if everyone believes, that the poll is correct and obama is way ahead, than on caucus night, if obamas kids from illinois caucus illegally, no one will believe us if we say they did it illegally.cause you know obama, he would turn that into hillary being a sore loser…:(

  188. kostner:

    Look at these numbers below.

    Party Affiliation Obama Clinton Edwards

    Democrats 27 33 25

    Independents 39 15 24

    ———

    Lets take Hillary’s numbers for example and apply 60% dem , 40% indies:

    (.6 * 33) + (.4 * 15) = 25% (approx)

    With a 80% dem, 20% indies, I get

    (.8 * 33) + (.2 * 15) = 33% (approx)

    Lets take Obama’s numbers for example and apply 60% dem , 40% indies:

    (.6 * 27) + (.4 * 39) = 32% (approx)

    With a 80% dem, 20% indies, I get

    (.8 * 27) + (.2 * 39) = 29% (approx)

    ————————–

    This is what Yepsen and Mark Penn are saying. These numbers will be slightly off because I used 60/40 instead of 55/45 model.

  189. pm: Somebody mentioned MD as Obama’s potential win — it won’t happen.

    So, what do you base this on?

    1. Cardin’s win over Mfume in the US-Sen primary was only 12K votes or so in the final tally.

    2. Black voters = about 40% of the Dem primary base.

    3. The attorney general in MD (Obama endorser) just got the the election board to reverse policy and allow 17 year olds to vote in the primary Feb 12th.

    Sorry, if Obama is competitive come Feb 12th, so is MD.

  190. Let the media talk up the poll and the same thing will happen to Obama that happened to Dean. All the first time voters and college students thought he was going to win and did not show up to caucus.

  191. ra1029, good post — that explains the difference clearly. So their raw numbers would show this kind of 60-40 (or 55-45) split, is it?

  192. right, well, ok, this may be a real contest until feb 5th. So, that’s fine. Hillary will win it February 5th then. It’s foolish to get distracted by one poll or even a few early wins.

  193. Based on my explanation above, if we take a 55/45/5 turnout model like DMR is doing, we get Obama over Clinton 32 to 25%.

    If I take a historical 80/20 turnout model, I get a Clinton over Obama 33 to 29%. This poll data itself is not out-of-sync with the other polls. The turnout model is completely different from other ones. We will have to see which turnout model is correct.

  194. ra1029,

    Yup, I understand what your points. Like I said, their turnout model is odd, they may have just sampled too many independents & GOPers over that period of time, and then assigned 45% as their model.

    Gallup and Newsweek’s polls do the similar thing, they do not weigh raw data, that’s why their results vary widely from time to time.

    As I said, DMR got 2004 Iowa presidential race completely wrong. What a fucking dumb blunder. Think about it, they flunked a local race! They are far far from gold… The myth all came from 2004 Iowa caucus results. As I said, they were lucky since Zogby had the similar results percentage wide, but Zogby put Edwards one point behind Dean, so they got their order wrong.

  195. So their raw numbers would show this kind of 60-40 (or 55-45) split, is it?

    Not really. They took a sample of registered democrats, republicans, and independents and got their preferences, which I listed at the top of my earlier post. They then applied the turnout model of 55/45/5 to that data and got the end result.

    I don’t know how they got the 55/45/5 model. Someone upthread is saying that they used the average voter registration in Iowa to get that percentage. Is that a better sample than the historical 80/19/1? I don’t know. We will see.

  196. ra1029: We will have to see which turnout model is correct.

    Well, that’s about the size of it, and I agree 100%.

    Clinton campaign has sent these nice little rectangular buttons all over IA for supporters. Saw a young woman wearing one today who thinks Hillary is the greatest, but she is not sure whether she’ll be at the caucus. Perhaps … maybe … doesn’t know where her precinct is …. blah blah.

    Losing may be the kick in the ass some need to see that it may not happen automatically without some effort — all hands on deck.

    Or, Clinton supporters may run the table at precincts in terms of turnout.

    We just don’t know, and we’ll see.

  197. ra1029, what do they base the turn out model on? when they sample randomly, are their respondents reflect this mix?

  198. ra1029 I understand thanks to your explanation. Independents better just stay home or go vote for Huckabee or something.

  199. I get what you’re saying now rakk. If the other polls that came out this week had used the same model as the DMR, they would all be showing Obama will that same wide lead.

    So DMR’s result is no different from, say, the Mason-Dixon, if they had all used the same model.

    Let’s hope this will encourage people to come out and caucus and fend off Obama.

  200. Scream and holler about DMR, but they are in IA and do just as good a job as anyone else. Nobody says they get it right all the time, just that they’ve gotten it right before, and if turnout reflects their estimates, then the result is not the one we want.

  201. The turnout model is based on what they’re told on the phone, period.

    Whether that reflects reality is an open question.

  202. the independent percentage jumps from 20% traditionally to 40% is way too odd. They may think BHO’s oganization is super.

  203. BTW, I haven’t looked to see DMR’s estimate on undecideds, but, I can tell you that there’s a large number still thinking about it.

  204. hmm.. if hillary/edwards turn out more registered democrats than they expect, that too could be a factor. what a weird poll.

  205. another_reader, after reading rakk’s explanation, it’s not a weird poll. It’s in line with the other polls that have come out. Just used a different model.

    Well, for a bit of better news, Hillary raised more than $100 million this quarter. This should help with the Feb. 5th Primaries.

  206. filbertst when you say this quarter, do you mean she has raised $100 million in the last 4 months or in total for her campaign?

  207. ra1029, what do they base the turn out model on? when they sample randomly, are their respondents reflect this mix?

    It is not exactly a completely random sample. They use pseudo-random sample, meaning they pick randomly within a group of registered democrats, then the same within a group registered republicans, and a few independents and get their opinions.

    Let’s say they look up for registered democrats and randomly pick 400 democrats and call them. They do the same thing with republicans, and then with independents. They get the percentages and then apply turnout models. I don’t know why they picked this turnout model.

    One reason could be out of the total 1200 people they sampled, the net percent of people who said that they would caucus in democratic primary turned out to be 55/45/5. That is a simple explantion. They could have factored some more things into consideration.

  208. ok kostner ..i new youd come back when you seen that poll…now i will just watch and learn with mj and all of ya..because im lost with it…

  209. Caroline, let me back-track. The year-end loot was $100 million. It’s not for the Quarter as I stated.

  210. Okay, per the article on Yahoo:

    “Clinton aides said her figure did not include $10 million she transferred to the campaign from her Senate campaign account at the beginning of the year. That means the senator from New York will have raised more than $20 million during the past three months.”

  211. nice to see you guys throwing in the towel because of one poll. i cannot believe you’re kowtowing to a bunch of acne-faced-students and bloggers who have no life beyond their http://www.com world.

    hillary deserves better. show some god-damned-spine.

  212. ra1029, I am not a polling expert but separating preference and turn out (like they seem to be doing) does not make sense. Ok, need to find out how they do this more.

  213. ra1029, I am not a polling expert but separating preference and turn out (like they seem to be doing) does not make sense. Ok, need to find out how they do this more.

    Yup. The problem here is does it influence some of the caucus goers supporting Hillary to stay home? I certainly hope they go and caucus and not think that their presence at the precinct is not of much use.

  214. comforting to see all of you throwing in the towel due to one poll. you’re going to allow a bunch of acne-faced students and bloggers decide our nominee?

    get a spine. stand up and fight. hillary deserves better.

  215. ra1029, absolutely not! If anything, it’ll fire up Edwards and Hillary’s base. If these long-time caucus goers look and read the polls and understand it as you have layed it, they’ll be outraged that so-called Independents and GOP will be deciding who our Democratic candidate.

  216. yikes, I forgot the hyperlink problem. ALCINA, I’m in until we get this woman in the white house. I just got a call from the campaign and depending if they can put me up or not, I’ll be in NH as soon as possible, and definately for the primary. Hill’s store looks much better. Look at these two cute shirts:

    http://www.hillarystore.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=HS&Product_Code=HC1023

    http://www.hillarystore.com/Merchant2/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=HS&Product_Code=HC1021

  217. ra1029, absolutely not! If anything, it’ll fire up Edwards and Hillary’s base. If these long-time caucus goers look and read the polls and understand it as you have layed it, they’ll be outraged that so-called Independents and GOP will be deciding who our Democratic candidate.

    Hopefully, that is the case. This is Mark Penn’s quote on the blog today asking people to get out and caucus.

    Register poll adopts unprecedented turnout model

    “So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

  218. ra1029

    I am a dem in indie clothes, nothing more than that.

    remember, the only time i HAVE to be reg as dem is in the primaries. i vote every election, except a couple of times when i got stuck in airports and didn’t even get back the day i was supposed to.

    i work for dem candidates, except for John Anderson in 1980.

    last time i felt for a candidate like i do Hillary was Ed Fallon, who ran for guv of Iowa and got beat for the dem nomination by Chet Culver, who won’t support Hillary.

    and i always put my $ where my mouth is, to the extent i can.

    i just don’t wear dem clothes .
    .

  219. alcina,

    of course we’ll fight… Make no mistake it’s now a fight between a true competent woman leader and a puppet propped up by Karl Rove.

  220. This is one time in my life when I actually wished I lived in Iowa. Then after Iowa, I’d go to NH and wherever I’m needed in those pesky little states.

  221. ra1029, not to beat a dead horse.. the turn out model is just this —
    “The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican”
    you had these numbers in your earlier posts — I just did not put those two together. Now the big question is why are not the other polls showing the same kind of mix for likely caucus goers? (would they not have the numbers of likely caucus goers?)

  222. Update [2008-1-1 0:11:23 by Jerome Armstrong]: Regarding it’s turnout projection, I’ll just add a comment on this from the poll:

    All of the three leaders in Iowa draw a majority of support from new caucusgoers, although Obama benefits the most with 72 percent of his support coming from first-timers compared to 58 percent of Clinton’s and 55 percent of Edwards’ supporters.
    That doesn’t seem like it could be correct to me, unless the DMR poll is projecting that over 180,000 persons are expected to caucus. I have to figure that at least 3 out of every 5 person’s that caucused four years ago would caucus this year, and it’s probably more likely that it’d be 4 out of ever 5 that would vote again in the caucus– those are the 4/4 voters. But if over half the ’08 caucus goers are going to be first-timers, and if 3 or 4 out of 5 of the 120,000 caucus attendees in ’04 do so again, then this poll projects a turnout of way above 150,000, more like above 180,000. The only other possibility is that less than half of those that caucused in ’04 are going to do so in ’08– very unlikely.
    Ann Selzer may well have polled an outlier this year and turn into a toad, or Obama might prove her to be a poll god by turning Iowa’s traditional caucus on its head by ramping up Independent & Republican participation in the Democratic event to an unprecedented record level– we’ll know in 72 hours.

    Also, the Edwards camp has a memorandum out on the poll. I wrote the above prior to getting the note, but it seems that they see the same thing in their second point. I’ll put the Edwards memo in the extended entry:

  223. Yeah, but Emjay, I find it hard to believe the indies Obama is attracting are typical Dem leaners. I hope they are not. I expect Dem voters to not like social security crisis bs, and union as “special interest” bashing, and frankly, not to like Clinton bashing.

  224. Biden and Richardson are screwing Hillary. I’ve read biden actually feels he can pull in third and then plans to stay in the race. Wha? He has no chance of winning. But he’s taking voters who favor experience. i like Biden, and Biden can’t stand Obama, but it kind of sucks he’s in this thing.

  225. I think some of the bottom candidates – Chris D., Dennis K., Mike G. (is he still in this race?) – need to bail out gracefully and just endorse another candidate.

  226. I am a dem in indie clothes, nothing more than that.

    Right. There is nothing wrong with that.

    But, if the indie Democrats only made up 17% of the 2000 caucus and 19% of the 2004 caucus, why would they suddenly make up 40% of this year’s caucus? For that to happen, the Democratic-registered Democrats would have to be completely tuning out the election and staying home in record numbers.

  227. filbertsf Says:

    January 1st, 2008 at 1:33 am
    ra1029, absolutely not! If anything, it’ll fire up Edwards and Hillary’s base. If these long-time caucus goers look and read the polls and understand it as you have layed it, they’ll be outraged that so-called Independents and GOP will be deciding who our Democratic candidate.

    your right .. faithfull democrats will be out and cacus like crazy they be outraged being hijacked by gop and iddie..that bho..i cant stand him ..and that poll to if those kids thinks hes won,they won’t come out,classes start wed dont they..and i hope it snows so bad from chicago to davenport,there it expecting it snow

    oh mj she will need you with your intelligence ..i wish you all lived in iowa im close by if i new anything i would have helped,a new learner would be bad..

  228. Happy New Year Hillfans (fireworks woke me up earlier and have been catching up on my reading here and at TM).
    —-

    John Nichols at The Nation writes:

    More intriguing are the details that are revealed in the internal demographics of the survey.

    For instance, most of Obama’s lead comes from young voters who are generally considered to be the least likely to show up for the caucuses. Among voters aged 18-to34, Obama’s got 56 percent to 18 percent for Edwards and 11 percent for Clinton.

    Among voters over 55, who historically turn out in the heaviest numbers on caucus night, Edwards rises to 30 percent, as does Clinton, while Obama drops to just 22 percent.

    Among self-identified independents, who can caucus but are less likely to do so than committed partisans, Obama is way ahead: with 39 percent to 24 percent for Edwards and just 15 percent for Clinton.

    But among self-identified Democrats, the steadiest caucusgoers, Clinton’s out front with 33 percent to 27 percent for Obama and 25 percent for Edwards.

    Add it all up and then throw in the weather factor — snow on Monday night forced Clinton to cancel her big “New Year, New Beginnings” rally in Waterloo; but caucus night should be clear and not too cold — and you get what we have had for weeks: a close, uncertain race that will be decided by who turns out.

    If Obama gets his young and independent supporters to the caucuses, if they master the arcane rules and if they stick out what can be a two-hour long process, the Illinois senator will win.

    If more traditional caucus-goers dominate, the night could yet belong to Clinton or Edwards.

    http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/?pid=264364

  229. BTW, no other pollster this year has predicicted anything close to 40% independent in the Democratic caucus. All other polls have been in the 19% to 26% range.

  230. A new national study of voters who say they might vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses shows a striking disconnect between their explicit and implicit preferences, according to University of Washington researchers. When asked who they would vote for, Sen. Barack Obama held a 42 percent to 34 percent margin over Sen. Hilary Clinton. Former senator John Edwards was in third place with 12 percent. However, when the same people took an Implicit Association Test that measures their unconscious or automatic preferences, Clinton was the runaway winner, the favored candidate of 48 percent of the voters. Edwards was second with 27 percent and Obama had 25 percent.

    [snip]

    The data came from 926 people age 18 and over who took the test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 5. Of that total, 687 people said they might vote in the Democratic primaries. “In the past, poll numbers have often overestimated support for black candidates when compared to their actual vote percentages,” said Albertson. “Findings of this study suggest that this familiar pattern may be about to repeat itself in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries.” “What is new here is a pre-election indicator that this may happen,” added Greenwald. “We don’t know what will happen in the Iowa caucuses when people who say they favor Obama have to convince other participants. And we don’t know if some of those participants in the caucuses who say they are planning to vote for Obama will end up choosing Clinton.” Albertson said implicit preferences may shape the way voters take in new information as the presidential campaign develops. The Implicit Association Test was developed nearly a decade ago to measure the unconscious roots of people’s thinking and feeling. Since it was created, more than 6 million people have taken versions of the test that have measured unconscious attitudes about such topics as race, gender, sexuality and various ethnic groups. The test is widely used around the world by psychological researchers to probe people’s attitudes. In the researchers’ new version participants took the test, which randomly administered a measure of implicit attitudes for either an Obama vs. Clinton race, Edwards vs. Clinton or Obama vs. Edwards. Then they were asked a number of explicit questions, including how warmly they felt toward the candidates, how likely they were to vote and whom they favored. Albertson and Greenwald said the disconnect between implicit and explicit preferences for Obama held up for both white and black participants as well as for both men and women. Just under 70 percent of the participants in the study were female. Whites made up 72 percent of the sample while blacks numbered 10 percent. “The result doesn’t disappear when we just look at men or women or when we look separately at black and white voters. This gives us greater confidence that these results have meaning,” said Greenwald.

    http://www.newsrx.com/articles/828487.html

  231. I am listening to Michelle Obama, and she has been going on and on about how fabulous BO is and all he has done, most which is very vague – lots of community organizing, whatever that is. I’d like to meet some of these people he helped and organized. He worked for civil rights as an attorney, but again, it is thin on facts about what precisely did he DO? Argue cases? Any he won? What?

    And how everything needs to change, is going to change. But there is never one darn specific about what, exactly, he will DO to make this big change. Seriously – I’ve been listening to her for 30 minutes, and not one detail of a single practical solution to anything. Not what he will DO in foreign affairs, not what he will DO about healthcare and how, not what he will DO about the jobs or the economy or oil dependence. Just a lot of government is “broken” and we are going to “change everything!”

    The difference is remarkable, because I listened to Bill today as well. He laid out exactly what Hillary had done, and what she will do. She is an ADULT. Amazing.

  232. mj

    try your best at coming up to NH over the weekend, if only for a few hours. every little bit helps.

    for me, it is time to lay-off this site. i need positive feed.

  233. These younger voters going so strongly for Obama’s peeve’s me a bit bcause young americans are not monolithic. There is no way he’s that heavily favored among them. It’s low hanging fruit and hillary should have made some effort to grab it. I hope she will up her efforts here going forward, and I suspect she will. Ofcourse, you don’t want to depend on people who have never voted or only voted once in a presidential, but she should be grabbing a better portion of this vote.

  234. alcina, this poll is a blessing in disguise. Now hill is not expected to win Iowa. I bet the smart guys and the ladies of Iowa will come out for her.

  235. I think our girl is doing just fine in these early states and there is no reason to panic or jump ship. All the reports from Iowa suggest that Hillary has momentum – along with JRE. She’s not the one attacking people out of desperation now is she?

    I agree with alcina that the board has gone very melancholy after one poll. We should stay upbeat. Besides nobody really knows what will happen on Thursday…it’s all a numbers game and who has the firmest support come 7 PM.

  236. im gonna hang in there until she is my President.
    and hillaryfortexas…someone should put what you just said on youtube…i watched her too. nodda nothing …its not like bill who tells ya what needs to be change she doesnt mention nothing on how things will change what things micellob..she is just as creepy.

    Yep Happy NEW Year to all you Hillary fans and admin to…i hope all those closet ones come out
    i think there is lotts of them on her side.

  237. I don’t know who started labeling BO supporters “independents”:they are not thinking or acting independently, many are just doing as instructed or repeating key phrases and most have been led to believe THEY CAN MAKE THE EARTH STOP SPINNING, BECAUSE THEY ARE ON THE SIDE OF RIGHT, OF MIGHT,OF CHANGE! That’s why I call them “worshipers.” Most have never been registered before, and are in fact, new voters.

    His organization has an unprecidented transpotation plan, much of which is being used to get these kids to their respective caucus locations. He has child care locations set up, after-caucus parties w/ food.

    His plan is to get the biggest numbers. Some of these kids have been to 3 or 4 caucus traing classes, with pizza or subs provided. They volunteer for hours in front of computers, entering data from all the cards that you feel you have to sign before seeing him speak or listening to Oprah.

    I don’t know who set up the master plan, but you have to admit, it’s genius.

    BOe claims he has independents in his camp, when what he has is a bunch of worshipful campers. I know because I have one of them in my family…not in my home, but a relative.

    I can hardly wait for the day when he has to publicly face one of his lies, or scrubbed bits of history, and it causes him to fully lose control, cause it is going to happen, sooner or later.

  238. Gee, emjay, everyone has said Hill has the top nitch woman for organizing. But that’s not what it sounds like from you.

  239. Actually, I’ve read Hill is the first to come up with daycare, and that she even gave out shovels and offered
    shovelers if it snows.

  240. big shots out of washington and new york// there going to drive to places to help to with the elderly..is what they said on the news and going to be there to shovel the walks if it snows…

  241. And, i would be surprised to learn Hillary isn’t having parties afterward.

    Free catered sandwiches at the caucus sites BEFORE the caucus so they can see who is there while there is still time to go rouse people who haven’t shown up.

  242. Just watched the Bill Clinton video as well as the Ann Lewis one on CSPAN’s campaign website.

    Bill Clinton was great and I totally do not see why the media said he would be a bad campaigner for Hillary. He’s her best one, IMO, and I hope he has a couple of stops in Iowa tomorrow.

    As for the A. Lewis Q&A, I think that CSPAN picked the most hateful, one-sided callers of the show to ask questions. I particularly loved the lady from Denver – a BO supporter – who said Hillary sucked all the joy out of politics for her and she would not know what to do without Obama (barfff!). However, Lewis did a wonderful job with those callers.

  243. In the USAtoday article, the spokeswoman for the New Voters Project referred to the “‘culture of disenfranchisement’ that exists among young people. ‘We think that the candidates don’t actually engage young people directly in the issues they care about,’ she said. ‘The best way to get young people to turn out is to literally ask them one on one and many times.'”

    “Sometimes, it takes coercion to get young folks to caucus. Jay Hatch, 22, plans to caucus for Obama because his father is dragging him to their precinct.

    “‘He doesn’t seem as part of the machine like the rest of them do,’ he said of Obama.”

    Hello! HELLO! culture of disenfranchisement What the pffffftttt is she talking about? This is selling bullshit!

    Disenfranchised means “deprived of the rights of citizenship especially the right to vote”.

    After java and my heart stops thumping will post this crapola to TM.

  244. Happy New Year folks – just got back from an event to see the DesMoines Reg results – this is world turned upside down – anyway, hoping that the foreign policy Pakistan news cycle continues to shine light on Obama’s inexperience and the MSM doesn’t turn Penn’s analysis into some sort of defensive posturing (while completely overlooking the Edwards campaign analysis). Saw briefly someone referring to media coverage of two San Franciscans student returning to Iowa to vote – not to be snarky, but is anyone videotaping the exodus of college students headed to Iowa – because even showing loads of Illinois students hopping onto buses coordinating by Obama campaign will make the nation look on disapprovingly.

  245. I think DM register poll blew it. They are assuming 60% first time caucus goers?? They assuming 55% independent/repugs ??? just does not make any sense. Admin, do you have some thing to say about this crap??

  246. don’t fret about one bad dmr poll hillfans, there were several recent polls that have hillary either ahead or a dead heat. also a BIG shoutout to kostner!!!! glad to see ya. also zogby’s latest tracking poll in iowa is set to be released this morning.

  247. terrondt, I guess I got a liitle carried away. Actually Hillary leads the poll among Democrats(assumed to be 60%) 33-27-25 . The poll changes entirely if you add the 40% (Ind/repugs). So how is BHO attracting all these people?

  248. The unquestioned adoration of BO by the young is annoying. 18 year-olds have known nothing but Bush almost since they learned who the president was. The Rep. linking of Bush and Clinton as if they were the same has confused the younger voter into believing that we have to get rid of both. They seem to believe that only BO is honest.

    I will repeat my request. Blog every site and tell anyone you know the 3-point tale. It’s a clear BO lie but more important, it’s ridiculous. It calls into question all his other tall tales.

    Even if they don’t get foreign policy, young people get basketball.

  249. hillfans, this will make your new years feelin betta!! latest zogby tracking poll hillary 30% obama/punk 26%, and edwards/phoney 24%.

  250. A friend of mine has been crunching the numbers. He has suggested that for the DMR model to work, Democratic participation in the caucus will increase by 14% while the participation in independents in the caucus will increase by 364%.

  251. dcdemocrat, i agree. what these guys think? dems supposed to stay home on caucus nite tweedling their thumbs while gopers and so called”independents” try to hijack the caucus. makes no sense.

  252. another poll showing a dead heat, NOT obama pulling away. cnn/opinion research poll, hillary 33%, punk/obama 31%, and phoney/edwards 22%. translation, the dmr is a damn outlier!

  253. So many polls so little time: Iowa
    by Beltway Dem, Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 07:44:13 AM EST

    Cross-posted at Daily Kos

    I never dismiss a poll out of hand. I think every poll has something to tell us. The results of the Des Moines Register poll have been widely noted here and throughout the blogosphere. Obama has a seven point lead:

    Obama 32
    Clinton 25
    Edwards 24

    This poll, the Register reports, has a +/-3.5% margin of error. The model, according the The Washington Post, assumes that more than half of Hillary’s and Edwards’s support will be from first time caucus goers and that 72% of Obama’s will come from that group.

    Another few hours, and two more polls arrive this morning. CNN suggests that the race looks this way:

    Clinton 33
    Obama 31
    Edwards 22

    This is a telephone conducted on December 26 to December 30. There were 482 likely Democratic caucus-goers interviewed for the survey. It had a +/-4.5 margin error, suggesting a stalemate between Hillary and Obama.

    The Reuter/Zogby tracking poll is out this morning, too:

    Clinton 30
    Obama 26
    Edwards 25

    According to Reuters:

    The poll of 925 likely Democratic caucus-goers . . . was taken Friday through Monday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for each party.

    So we wait till Thursday.

  254. Newsday story: Making an argument for his electability, Obama said, “I don’t want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats — we’ve done that in 2004, 2000,” according to a person at the event (rush transcript).

    I just posted at Newsday
    http://weblogs.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/blog/2007/12/obama_gore_kerry_alienated_hal.html
    There are only 4 posts so far.

    Brilliant. That’s right up there with using the assassination to attack Hillary (a noun, verb, and a 5 year old speech), and getting himself burned in effigy in Pakistan for talking about invading Pakistan, saying he wants to take US troops from Iraq TO “the right battlefield in Pakistan and Afganistan.”

    In the assassination and the Pakistan cases, instead of backing off and clarifying — when challenged he ESCALATED the offense. I wonder if he will do the same thing here.

  255. freckles, on the youth vote. After spending nearly two hours putting together a diary for TaylorMarsh on the “culture of disenfranchisement”, I came to the conclusion that we have DMR’s Yepsen and Dodd and others’ outcry about the out-of-state student voters to thank for this. It managed to mobilize at least two student voter registration organizations to previously unheard of levels of activity.

    The bottom line still comes down to who shows up to caucus and who will not. The good and the bad of this is that the student GOTV program is in hyperdrive.

    Thanks, Dave. Not.

  256. Where are the Biden/Richardson voters going? At the end of the day, that’s all that matters becuase despite Biden’s wishful thinking, they are not going to get the 15%. Who know where they will go though. Maybe this is an older, less pro-woman set, and they will go Edwards. Also, Hillary hould have made some effort to get some of that youth vote because it is low hanging fruit.

  257. ra1029, yeah at work. man, i missed a wild discussion last night!! the cnn and zogby polls really will put a little sunshine to that bad poll by dmr. i read mark penn’s take on it on hillary’s official blog. take a look. great to see kostner again!

  258. ra1029, any mor thought on the poll?

    Based on all polls so far, one thing is for certain. Hillary is trending up. Some polls show Edwards surging, others not. So, I am not sure what is actually happening with Edwards. When comparins trend lines be sure to use the same polling outfit – otherwise it is misleading.

    Now, I don’t know the turnout model used in CNN poll because they don’t publish that data. One thing that is clear to me is if I do a sensitivity analysis of the same polling data with different turnout models, I will get all these results shown by these different outfits.

    If I use 55/45/5 – DMR.
    If I use 80+/16/1 – ARG
    If it is 80/20 – Zogby

    So it is not that the polling is outlier, it is just that the results are completely different based on estimated turnout model. 55/45/5 is probably at the one extreme end of turnout prediction one could use, which will yield extremely favorable results for Obama. Similarly, if I go for 90/10 model, it will give best results for Clinton. I am assuming that the actual turnout could be somewhere in between.

    The trend is that Hillary has an uptick in the raw numbers itself. I am Edwards is seeing the same in his internals. Others you won’t see an annoyed Obama go after Hillary and Edwards.

  259. this so called student bussing in program by obama has me a little worried. this is going to make florida look like a walk in the park. a lot of these guys are going to vote and i bet most never set foot in iowa before. and these guys will be allowed to vote?!!!

  260. Hillfans, although I admit to not being totally clear on how the caucus process plays out, what I do understand is that it’s a concensus process. This is not just walking in and voting in private. For all the baby Obamalamadingdongers to get their way, they’ll have to convince others that they and their candidate are right and everyone else is wrong. The only way I see them prevailing is if everyone over 50 either STFU or goes home.

    Tell me if I’m wrong, please.

  261. I’m also reading that the baby Obamalamadingdongers will have to register to vote as Dems and will have to provide some sort of ID showing domicile in Iowa, even if it’s a dorm or something? How many Iowans are going to let a mass of baby Obamalamadingdongers stroll in like they own the place without proof they belong there?

  262. B Merryfield, I never like to guess in these situations. I thought obama’s major gaffes all week would be the end of him.

  263. BTW, here in NH the deadline has passed for folks to change party affiliation and only previously unregistered voters will be allowed to register at the door. This will not preclude the latter from voting but a large number of first timers would send up red flags. The number of folks voting is public info and Hillary reps will be monitoring the vote count throughout the day on the 8th. Carloads or busloads of students will be easy to spot.

  264. ra1029, the 80/20 model is a little conservitive. I will go with 71/26/3 model. assume BHO has a super organization.

  265. mj, I agree. But we’re dealing with mesmerized Obamalamadingdongers. Cultists can’t and don’t think for themselves. For every gaffe, there’s a plausible explanation.

  266. ra1029, the 80/20 model is a little conservitive. I will go with 71/26/3 model. assume BHO has a super organization.

    That is what I wouls use as well.

  267. Good morning all! I hope you all had a good night’s rest. It’s 5:22AM on the West Coast and I’m up. That should tell you how my night went.

    Anywho… we can not dismiss the DMR. Zogby is unreliable and it also ranks at the botton in terms of respected polls amongst pollster-geeks.

    This is irrefutable: If the turnout is significant, Hillary and Edwards are screwed. That is what DMR is indicating and that’s what we should take from it.

    MJ, to answer your question, this is what DMR had to say about second-choice:

    An analysis of likely caucusgoers’ second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.

  268. The effects of that DMR poll could cut both ways. The herd instinct will probably get a few more votes for BHO because they want to be on the apparent winning side. Then there are those who will vote for Hillary and JE because they believe they have to do it to stop an inferior candidate. Augmenting that second group will be the other polls that don’t agree with the DMR poll.

    Meanwhile, I will try to get all of my political news off of this website since I don’t want to let the sneers of MSM reporters cause my blood to boil. I don’t know which way CNN will report it. They may be torn between wanting to hit Hillary again with the DMR poll and touting their own poll. I probably won’t know unless it’s mention here.

    If what we’ve been told over and over that GOTV is what really matters, then maybe we can ignore the polls altogether. I still base my optimism on that.

  269. Sherm, what BillC said here in NH on Sat was that which ever way Iowa goes, we’re ready here in NH and Hillary’s campaign is ready for Feb 5th. Hillary was never projected to win Iowa, so even getting this close is a positive. GOTV here is pretty darn awesome. All I can and will say.

  270. BTW, Halperin has a pic up of Jonathan Price from JRE and Wolfson from HRC sitting in an Iowa restaurant discussing the poll. That’s his caption, so you can be sure he was speaking from knowing not guessing. Although two pros discussing the DRM poll is nothing unusual, I’m sure, the signif should not be lost. See for yourself, they look pretty intent.

    thepage.time.com/

  271. Thanks, B Merryfield. That also helps my confidence.

    I’m thinking if BHO does end up being considered the front runner after Iowa, then long before February 5, his vetting could be well under way. If so, Hillary’s numbers in the other states can stay strong. However, I don’t expect them to stay as high as they are now anyway.

  272. “This is irrefutable: If the turnout is significant, Hillary and Edwards are screwed. That is what DMR is indicating and that’s what we should take from it.” it’s actually not irrefutable. It’s one poll.

    “An analysis of likely caucusgoers’ second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.” That’s weird.

  273. My New Year’s resolution: To get drunk as a skunk if Huckabee is the Repug nominee. I’ve only been truly drunk about twice and that would be cause for celebration.

  274. Can you guys believe Iowans? At the forefront of the GOP is a man who rejects evolution and has 0 foreign policy experience; his idea of responding to the Pakistan crisis is to talk about how we can prevent illegal Pakistanis from getting into the country.

    On the Dem side, they prefer a guy who, until 3-years-ago, was in the Ill. State Senate voting “Present” on those pesky controversial issues. A guy who has no legislative success on record. Nothing. Nada.

  275. Greg Sargent via Ben Smith (hi Ben) has BHO’s radio attack ad against Hillary and JRE by name on health insurance mandates.

    Let the games begin .. again.

    tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/new_obama_iowa_radio_ad_hits_hillary_edwards_health_care_plans.php

  276. This DMR poll putting BHO several points ahead is getting lots of attention in the media as if the is assured of being the winner. Other recent polls showing Hillary several points ahead were mentioned with the comment that the election is still too close to call. What gives?

    I noticed the DMR poll shows Hillary best able to win the GE. Haven’t I been reading that this is a major favorable point? BHO was bragging about it recently.

  277. Another “duh” moment. If BHO is so confident of being ahead, with those DMR poll numbers, why is he keeping up the negative attacks .. and by name this time? More than meets the eye going on here.

  278. B Merryfield, he’splaying that ad to get those younger voters to the caucuses. Alot of them actually believe his bs sadly for them and us.

  279. Sara at The Next Hurrah blog commented:

    “Iowa is about the locals sitting in the cafe, and discussing how to caucus over pie. If you are not in that clan forget it. Many issues are involved, and none of the networks seem to be able to report.”

    I just don’t see an insurgent mass of Obamalamadingdongers successfully invading that scenario.

  280. In any event, the campaign that has to worry about the bar being set too high for Thursday night is Obama’s­ which now probably needs to win or risks heading into New Hampshire with the air seeping out of its balloon.

    [snip]

    The truth is that on paper, Obama doesn’t have to win Iowa. (Edwards with far less money probably does.) January is all about momentum; it’s in February when the actual delegate selection begins in earnest. Obama could finish second in Iowa, and then certainly go on to win New Hampshire or then South Carolina. Even an Iowa result with the top three tightly bunched wouldn’t have hurt him really – at least before the expectation bar got raised.

    Now, anything less than an Iowa victory will look like a defeat, unless the story Friday is that Clinton completely crumbled. Maybe Obama’s campaign knows something we don’t. Or, maybe, getting fired up and ready to go has gotten the better of them.

    time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/01/obama_the_expectations_game.html

  281. New CNN & Zogby polls contradict DMR: What’s going on?
    by markjay, Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 08:10:05 AM EST

    New polls today by CNN and Zogby both put Clinton in first place. What are the numbers and how can you explain the difference between these and the DMR poll? More below the fold

    Here’s the CNN results:
    Clinton 33
    Obama 31
    Edwards 22

    And Zogby
    Clinton 30
    Obama 26
    Edwards 25

    How can the discrepancies between, on the one hand, these two polls and a half dozen other recent polls, all of which show Clinton or Edwards on top, and the DMR poll, which shows a big lead for Obama?

    Well, I think they are explained by what can only be characterized as the bizarre findings of the DMR poll. Here was the turnout in 2004 Democratic Iowa caucus according to exit polls:

    Iowa Democratic Caucus 2004
    Total Turnout: 124,000
    Democrats: 99,200 (80%)
    Independents: 23,560 (19%)
    Republicans: 1240 (1%)

    Well, according to the DMR poll, the percentage of Independents and Republicans caucusing in the Democratic caucus this year will leap to 40% and 5%. Projecting a turnout of 200,000 people, which would be a huge leap, this means numbers such as the following:

    Iowa Democratic Caucus 2008
    Projected Total Turnout: 200,0000
    Democrats: 110,000 (55%) [number up 11% from 2004]
    Independents: 80,000 (40%) [number up 340% from 2004]
    Republicans: 10,000 (5%) [number up 806% from 2004]

    Look at the increased numbers from 2004. They are, to put it mildly, very unusual.

    The DMR’s projection is not impossible, but it seems to me very unlikely.

  282. ABC’s Jake Tapper in Iowa:

    But I can’t find anyone who really believes those [DMR’s] Democratic numbers. Obama has been increasingly criticizing his rivals, and others, which would indicate that maybe he’s not so sure about them either.

    Plus Obama introduced to the Iowa airwaves yesterday a radio ad that for the first time criticizes his rivals by name.

    It’s an attempt to pushback on an issue where he’s being attacked — with glaring hypocrisy — on the fact that his health care proposal contains no individual mandates and thus would leave millions uninsured.


    In ref to BHO’s ads citing the U. of Iowa newspaper endorsement, Tapper writes:

    Last night a U. Iowa alum — unaffiliated with any campaign — told me he thought it was a bit odd to constantly see a student newspaper cited so often in Obama’s ads.

    Would testimonials from high school newspapers be next? Emails from nieces and nephews?

    “Candidate X’s tax plan has been called ‘super cool’ and ‘totally amazing.'”

  283. I am viewing CNN’s coverage, and I just endured a speech Obama delivered in Sioux City. He proposes a $4,000 tax credit for college tuition for those who agree to engage in community service after college. Is this not overly complicated and a blatant attempt to pander to voters? Who would actually utilize this credit, and what types of service would qualify? For how long would one have to serve? Moreover, how can one figure address tuition disparities? It seems vague, and I fail to see how a poor family would be able to rely on this credit when the tuition must be paid before any academic period of study begins.

  284. Obama also cited his mother’s death as the exigency motivating his health care proposal. Is this recent, or has he cited this event in his speeches? He claims her decision to switch employers created complications with the insurance provider. Does he discuss this in his novels, or is this yet another autobiographical fiction he is injecting into his political self-fashioning? And yes, he mentioned how he will not be fettered with votes for Iraq or for Bush’s desire to label the Iran Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. But he neglected to discuss how he chose to avoid the second vote.

  285. He proposes a $4,000 tax credit for college tuition for those who agree to engage in community service after college.

    Did he promise a free plasma TV for all those students in those dorm rooms as well?

  286. pulchritude, another problem is this: if the tax credit is contingent upon fullfilling a community service obligation AFTER completing college, then that should translate to a deferred tax credit WHEN and IF the terms are completed.

    More smoke and mirrors.

  287. Judging by the constituency he is depending on to pull off a victory in Iowa, Obama might be better served, if he just campaigned on college campuses only for the next two days. That looks like his base.

  288. ChiSunTimes 9/20/07: Note this does not say that she did not have health insurance when she died, only that she was changing jobs and filling out forms. This should be vetted:

    “I remember my mother. She was 53 years old when she died of ovarian cancer, and you know what she was thinking about in the last months of her life? She wasn’t thinking about getting well. She wasn’t thinking about coming to terms with her own mortality. She had been diagnosed just as she was transitioning between jobs. And she wasn’t sure whether insurance was going to cover the medical expenses because they might consider this a preexisting condition. I remember just being heartbroken, seeing her struggle through the paperwork and the medical bills and the insurance forms. So, I have seen what it’s like when somebody you love is suffering because of a broken health care system. And it’s wrong. It’s not who we are as a people.”

    http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2007/09/obamas_mother_in_new_ad.html

  289. This is essentially what he said to the voters of Sioux City. But again, he spoke dispassionately about the event.

  290. ra1029, as I’ve written here recently, BHO began his focus on building his college-based network on Day One in the US Senate using his Hopefund which helped finance his training program Camp Hope. He put all his eggs in that one basket from the gitgo and it is his base. Should they succeed in putting him in office in 2008, they will be ready, willing and able to put him in office for a second term, passing on the election plan to the next generation of students as well as putting his successor in place.. all the while by-passing the settled, family-oriented older generation.

    Remember, his plan has been to do away with the Boomer generation .. literally cut them out of the electoral process. The students will be the voters and the delegates will have to hold their noses to “elect” The One.

  291. B. Merryfield, You said “The students will be the voters and the delegates will have to hold their noses to “elect” The One.”

    Maybe things have changed, but it seems to me it used to be that the convention could select any candidate they chose to select. I know this is very far out, but I’m thinking of a situation in which Obama finally get’s vetted, after he has the nomination sewed up. Then suppose the party turned completely against him when they realized what a bad choice he is. Maybe they would see there is no way to win with him as the candidate. Can the delegate’s “pledges” be ignored allowing them to choose another candidate? Or, do they really have to hold their noses?

  292. I was speaking metaphorically. I don’t know how it would work at that point. However, this subject prompted me to quickly put together a SourceWatch section on BHO and the “youth vote”. The Hill reported as recently as Dec 14th that not only do his youth backers want to elect him but they also are open to a third party. Now imagine BHO fails to garner enough delegates and forms that third party .. with Bloomberg, for instance. This guy is scary as all get out.

    thehill.com/campaign-2008/holy-grail-youth-vote-favors-obama-also-wants-third-party-alternative-2007-12-06.html

  293. Actually it isn’t as far out as I suggested. In 1980 the Kennedy campaign had a concerted effort at the convention to get Carter delegates to change. That one failed, but if things looked badly enough with Obama, that may bring out a different outcome.

    However, we are not at that point yet. We are still going to win this thing. It’s more a matter of curiosity.

  294. Sherm, I agree. I do not doubt that Hillary’s campaign gurus have done oppo research on this, as well. It’s been in the news since BHO launched Camp Hope and more heavily since he announced his bid.

  295. I resided in Barack Obama’s neighborhood when he ran for the Senate, and those close to his supporters explained how this man would eventually become President when touting his candidacy. I never heard of this man, and I dismissed their rhetoric as the typical bilge one hears from an overzealous supporter. But now I realize this was planned.

  296. Happy 2008 to everyone!

    Questions–just hypothetical: if Obama should happen to win Iowa…shouldn’t the other candidates start showing ads that clearly highlight his hypocrasy, inexperience and Republican bent? I don’t think they’ve done enough of that–perhaps they didn’t want to do that against another Dem. But it’s clear Obama has no concerns about attacking other Democrats. He is doing negative advertising, by name, of the other candidates. Why should that be left unchallenged? The media clearly isn’t do it’s job…the other campaigns will need to counter the wave of positive coverage that will occur and , in my opinion, need to educate voters on the true philosopy and actions of this man that hasn’t been widely made public. Frankly, I would go at him pretty hard, fellow Democrat or not.

    Also, what are the odds of Bill Clinton getting more direct in his criticism of Obama? He needs to increase the emotion of Democrats to fight for a solid Democrat as the nominee.

  297. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/us/politics/31cnd-nagourney.html?ei=5065&en=e49b941d81fa450b&ex=1199768400&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

    December 31, 2007

    On the Campaign
    What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats?

    By ADAM NAGOURNEY

    DES MOINES — Iowa is packed with presidential candidates and hundreds of campaign aides, advisers and contributors. Twenty-five hundred representatives of news organizations have been granted credentials to cover the caucuses on Thursday night, twice as many as in 2004. Rarely has a political event been so intensely anticipated as a decisive moment, at least on the Democratic side.

    But what if it is not decisive?

    What if at the end of Thursday, the three leading Democrats — former Senator John Edwards and Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama — are separated by a percentage point or two, leaving no one with the clear right of delivering a victory speech (or the burden of conceding)? A number of polls going into the final days have suggested that after all of this, the Democratic caucus on Thursday night could end up more or less a tie.

    In truth, amid all the endless permutations of outcomes that are being discussed — can Mrs. Clinton, the putative front-runner, survive a third-place finish, or Mr. Edwards a second-place one? — aides are beginning to grapple with the frustrating possibility that all the time, money and political skill invested here might prove to be for naught when it comes to identifying the candidate to beat in the primaries and winnowing the top tier.

    “It would be like a six-month trial and a hung jury,” said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “I think it is really possible.”

    Rather than clarify the state of play and consolidate this crowded field a bit, an outcome like that would almost certainly muddle things further and potentially extend the time before Democrats know their nominee.

    For different reasons, Iowa is not likely to determine much for the Republicans, either. Only Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, are going all-out here, and whatever happens between them, the Republican race already seems likely to go on at least until the cavalcade of primaries across the country on Feb. 5.

    But for the leading Democrats, an inconclusive ending here would be a much more complicated result.

    Because none of them would be judged a decisive loser, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama would all be able to go on to the New Hampshire primary next week, no questions asked. And you can bet on this: the other Democrats in the race — Senators Christopher J. Dodd and Joseph R. Biden Jr., Representative Dennis J. Kucinich and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico — would feel less of the morning-after-Iowa pressure to pull out.

    It would be hard for any candidate to play the “I beat expectations” game and claim some sort of chimerical victory, much the way Bill Clinton proclaimed himself the winner after coming in second in New Hampshire in 1992 — although Mr. Edwards, who for much of the year campaigned in the shadow of his two rivals, would no doubt try.

    “Frankly, if there’s a three-way tie, that changes the dynamics of what has been reported the entire year: that it’s a two-person race,” said Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, the Iowa campaign director for Mr. Edwards, who has put in more than a year preparing for this week. “It changes the way people look at the race, and they’ll see it as a three-way race.”

    It is a good bet, in fact, that one candidate would try to claim a victory, even if it was by a single percentage point or less. Still, that is not likely to get him or her on the cover of Time or Newsweek (that would be the old-school way of measuring the political impact of winning in Iowa). The other two would be left fighting for the right of second place. And politics being politics, it is likely there would be a campaign trying to present a three-way tie as a victory.

    Beyond that, New Hampshire, which for Democrats has seemed something like a stepchild in this year’s nominating process given all the attention being paid to Iowa, would get a chance to have some real influence over the nomination. For 25 years, there has been debate and study about how the outcome in Iowa affects New Hampshire voters. This time around, because of the decision by the New Hampshire secretary of state, Bill Gardner, to set the primary on Jan. 8, voters will have just five days to examine the candidates and make their decision.

    One of the bedrock political assumptions of the year — and certainly one that has informed Mrs. Clinton’s campaign — is that winning Iowa and New Hampshire would set the table for sweeping the 20 or so states that vote on Feb. 5, the day when many Democrats believe that their contest will effectively be decided. But if Iowans end up being equally divided among what many party leaders view as an unusually strong cast of candidates, who is to say that voters in the Feb. 5 states won’t be as well?

    None of this is meant to suggest that such an outcome would mean that what has taken place here over the past year is insignificant. Quite the contrary. Watching these candidates, Democrats and Republicans, deliver their final speeches, take the last rounds of questions from Iowans and shake the hands of supporters one more time, it is apparent that most of them are much better at campaigning than they were a year ago.

    Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, an old Iowa caucus hand who has moved here to help out in the final days, said as much in explaining why he would be comfortable with even an inconclusive outcome. “The experience here in Iowa,” he said, “has been tremendous for the entire campaign.”

  298. hillfans, as we into the final i would watch the realclear politics.com average of ALL recent iowa polls put together. this the most accurate gadge going into thursday. i say check it thursday afternoon. they were accurate on coming close to the final 2004 popular vote pres election percentage and the 2006 senate races percentages. right now hillary 28.6% to obama’s 27.0% a 1.6 point lead. not much, but a lead.

  299. *The Clinton team planning to court 2nd choice voters.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-secondchoice1jan01,0,3094276.story?coll=la-home-center

    CAMPAIGN ’08
    Democrats angle for second place
    On Iowa caucus night, backers of candidates who don’t make the cut will be freed up. The front-runners are ready.

    By Peter Wallsten and Maria L. La Ganga
    Los Angeles Times Staff Writers

    January 1, 2008

    DES MOINES — The top three Democratic presidential candidates have begun focusing intensely on becoming the second choice among supporters of less-popular candidates such as Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, in a behind-the-scenes battle that could decide the outcome of Thursday’s Iowa caucuses.

    The effort, in which the top campaigns are deploying an array of strategies, focuses on the brief and unpredictable moment that will occur just after the first votes are cast in the state’s 1,781 caucus meetings.

    Under the unusual rules of the Democratic caucuses, candidates who do not win a minimum level of support in a precinct are eliminated from consideration there, freeing their supporters to back other candidates. More than 15% of caucusgoers are thought to be backing candidates likely to be eliminated in many balloting locations — turning their supporters into potential king-makers in the close contest among Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

    The Clinton, Obama and Edwards campaigns are focusing on what their local captains should do once this large bloc of voters becomes available — in the few moments when victory may rest on the ability to swing voters, in face-to-face appeals and cajoling, toward their second choice.

    Trying to leave little to chance, Clinton’s campaign has given its local precinct captains paper cards that lay out arguments targeted to supporters of each of the candidates who might be eliminated in the first round of balloting.

    Supporters of Richardson, who has called for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, are to be assured that the New York senator would end the Iraq war as well, the cards say. To win over supporters of Biden, whose most resonant strength during the campaign has been his long experience in foreign policy, the Clinton captains are instructed to emphasize Clinton’s own foreign policy experience and her desire to restore U.S. standing in world opinion.

    Backers of Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd are to be told that, like him, Clinton has vast government experience.

    The cards ask Clinton’s supporters to approach their second-choice targets “with kindness,” and to imagine how it would feel to have their own first choice eliminated. “Put yourself in their shoes,” read the talking points.

    “It’s a lot of pressure,” said Marti Anderson, a Des Moines precinct captain for Clinton. “It’s like diplomacy. You have to find common ground.”

    Obama campaign aides are preparing precinct captains with detailed lists of likely caucusgoers who have named the Illinois senator as their second choice, giving campaign volunteers the information they need to make face-to-face pitches amid the activity on caucus night.

    There are signs that Edwards has the most to gain from second-choice picks, whereas Clinton may have the toughest time wooing those second-round votes.

    A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey of Iowa Democrats published last week showed that Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who surged four years ago to a surprising second-place finish in the caucuses, was the second choice of 23% of likely caucusgoers, compared with 20% who cited Obama as a second choice and 15% for Clinton.

    Among the 13% of likely caucusgoers who planned to back Richardson or Biden, Edwards was named by a convincing plurality as the second choice.

    Some strategists believe that Edwards owed his success in 2004 to the fact that he was a popular second choice in that contest, benefiting as Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, who had been front-runners, destroyed each other’s chances with attack ads.

    Edwards also benefited from a last-minute deal with Ohio Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich, a bottom-tier contender then and now, who directed his supporters to back Edwards if Kucinich was not viable in their precincts. It appears that no such deals exist now, but strategists for several campaigns said that such a move would take place only in the final hours before the caucuses.

    Remarks by Clinton in a recent debate, in which she joked about an experienced governor making a good vice president, touched off speculation that Richardson may seek a pact with Clinton in hopes of securing a spot as her running mate. Both campaigns deny a deal is in the offing.

    Officials from the Biden and Richardson campaigns said their primary goal was to reach viability; candidates must win support from at least 15% of caucusgoers in a precinct or be eliminated there. They said there was no plan to forge an alliance.

    But the front-running campaigns are closely eyeing supporters of those campaigns — and the supporters are eyeing the front-runners.

    Gene Blanshan, a 59-year-old farmer, turned up at an Obama appearance Monday in the town of Jefferson to quiz his potential No. 2 pick.

    “I’m going to give you the opportunity for your last sales pitch,” Blanshan told Obama when the microphone reached his seat. “I’m not totally undecided. I’m a Biden supporter. He might not be viable. Why should I select you over John Edwards?”

    Blanshan said he had asked the same question of Edwards four months earlier, one sunny day on the courthouse steps here. The war in Iraq is his biggest concern, and he said he was looking for someone to change the path the nation is on.

    Obama agreed that Biden “may not be viable,” but went on to compliment both the Delaware senator and Edwards before making the case that he could bring about more change than Edwards could.

    In other speeches to voters on Monday, Obama asked explicitly: “Make me your second choice.”

    Republican candidates are also engaged in a tight race for Iowa, but the GOP’s rules are far simpler, providing for just one round of voting.

    On the Democratic side, campaign strategists and volunteers expect the personal appeals and interactions on caucus night to be crucial.

    One Edwards precinct captain from Knoxville, Craig Kelley, recalled his frustration in 2004 when an Edwards advocate’s tone and style alienated potential supporters, prompting many to move to support John F. Kerry.

    Veteran caucus participants said the fluid nature of the meetings and the quirky rules create an environment where the outcome can turn on unexpected alliances or tactical concessions.

    Supporters of eliminated candidates, for example, can turn aside appeals from the surviving campaigns and form their own union, perhaps recruiting enough participants to award a delegate to a second-tier candidate.

    Or, they can play the front-runners off each other: If they find themselves a few votes shy of winning a delegate, they might demand that a leading campaign send them the needed votes under the threat that they would otherwise take their entire support to a rival campaign.

    A county chairwoman in eastern Iowa who plans to support Biden said she had been given no directions about what to do if her candidate does not prove viable.

    “I’ll probably just go off and do my own thing, which would be to go to Edwards,” said the Biden supporter, who asked not to be identified because she does not reveal her preferences until caucus night.

    At a strategy meeting just before Christmas with about a dozen other Biden precinct captains, no consensus emerged on how to proceed in a potential second round of balloting Thursday night. Some of the precinct leaders said they would try to direct caucusgoers to Obama, others to Clinton and some to Edwards.

    The Biden backers also discussed joining with Dodd and Kucinich supporters to form an “uncommitted” slate. But the group came to no agreement.

    One Biden campaign advisor said it was not clear yet whether the campaign would direct its volunteers on what to do if the candidate does not meet the 15% threshold.

    “The first priority is to become viable,” said Paulee Lipsman, 57, a longtime Iowa political activist who is advising the Biden campaign on caucus-night strategy. But she added, “There are all kinds of scenarios that can go on over the next 48 hours.”

  300. My guess is that the college crowd is going to have a bit more trouble running over the room. There are the speeches after the first vote to persuade the non-viable. Hillary’s will be easy. Edwards will stress his populism. And the Obamalamas will say what? He’s the one? He’s the dream? He’s the only honest one? (That’ll go over big with the Dodd/Biden/Richardson/Kucinich groups) He’s inspiring? He’s for change?

    I would have little trouble countering that with the one most likely to win the GE, the one who HAS spent time LEARNING the ways of Washington (BO brags that he hasn’t) and is therefore equipped to change them, the one known and respected internationally and can begin on day one to change our policies and our standing in the world, and the only one who can work effectively with all of Congress.

    That takes about 15 seconds. I bet you all can think of more powerful paragraphs that the BO crowd will have difficulty countering. And the normal anti-Hillary attacks may go over as badly as they did at the Nevada debate.

    P.S. Emjay, tell me about Sally Quinn.

  301. The bogus DMR poll may successfully slow momentum of Hillary and Edwards. But the burden of BHO will be to produce 45% of independents turn out to fullfill his dreams.

  302. meiyingsu, the “bogus DMR poll” should have Hillary’s supporters scratching their heads and yelling BullShit! just like I did .. Then get back to work getting her elected.

  303. Happy New Year to al Hillfans

    I am really feeling good about Hillary’s chances. If her supporters all come out and caucus for her I believe she will win. I am taking into account the poll conducted by DMR in 2004. It had Kerry in 1st place and Edwards in 2nd place. If you use the same model that was used then, Hillary is on top. Kerry was way behind in 1st time cacuse goers and young people compared to Dean. I might be in denial but I can’t overlook this. I just feel good things for Hillary on Thursday.

  304. I wish Hawk would check in. I simply can’t believe those numbers among the young voters. hillary spent her career advocating for those of us who are now young adults. They seem to know nothing about her. And, the young women? I’m stunned there is not more excitement to elect the first female president.

  305. Ok, this is about the 4th “duh” moment of the morning (it is still morning, right?) .. regardless of this DMR poll being off from all other polls and the DMR reputed to be the most reliable of Iowa polls, there has never been a caucus poll run at this time of the year before between Christmas and New Year’s eve. Never. The timing is different, the sample is different, and, from what I’m hearing from our Hillaryis44 poll gurus, the model is different. It’s a simple matter of attempting to compare apples to bananas.

  306. WELL my friends, its very telling that Obama is so popular among Republicans. While it sucks that these people can vote in a Democratic Caucus, the Democratic Wing (as Admin calls it) of the Democratic Party will eventually prevail.

    Democrats should not allow GOP to influence our selection of a candidate.

    Hillary will win in the end.

  307. Attention Hillfans – Hillary is coming on CNN live shortly from Iowa. John McCain was just on and JRE and BHO will also be coming on. Don’t know the order but think Hillary is first.

  308. Axelrod’s Iowa Strategy
    by Big Tent Democrat, Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 11:27:58 AM EST

    I have been incredibly hard on Barack Obama’s campaign strategist David Axelrod for his campaign strategy. Axelrod has had Obama eschew partisan politics and avoid strong conrast with conservatives and Republicans. I have disliked the strategy as bad both for Obama’s chances AND as bad for the Democratic Party. I am a believer in a politics of contrast.

    But at least on the question of whether it is good strategy for Obama, Axelrod has won a very important convert – Ann Seltzer, the Des Moines Register pollster. In her final poll, the Gold Standard poll, Ms. Seltzer predicts Obama losing among Democrats but being swept to a big victory by bringing in unprecedented numbers of Independent and Republican voters to vote for Obama. This is, in a nutshell, the Obama strategy — win with Independents and Republicans. If this works, Joe Lieberman must be wondering why he did not hire Axelrod in 2004.

    In essence, Axelrod has run a New Hampshire McCain campaign in Iowa (where crossover voting is much more difficult, Indys have to register as Dems in Iowa, they do not in NH, these folks have to sit through a 3 hour caucus in Iowa, all they have to do is vote in NH), and Ann Seltzer, the most respected pollster in the business, is telling us it worked.

    If it turns out this way on Thursday night, then all credit to Axelrod for seeing a strategy that the CW would never see. Including me.

    I am not happy that non-Dems in Iowa could very well choose the Dem nominee for President. But the rules are what they are, and Axelrod works for Obama, not the Democratic Party. He could become a “genius” come Thursday night

  309. Hillary at CNN: “A lot of the world is holding its breath. They need a new President too.”

    She’s so cool.

  310. meiyingsu,
    If Axelrod is declared a “genius” that word must subsequently be purged for eternity from the English language.

  311. Just an observation but how is anyone sure that is is actually an Axelrod plan? As discussed last night how does Howard Dean figure into this?

  312. Obama figured long ago that he couldn’t win among Dem’s alone. I’ve said that for months. Any national poll, Hillary is ahead by a mile among registered Dem’s. And, even in state polls that are close, Hillary leads among Dem’s(except Il). I’ve said this all along, I just never figured it would be succesful in a state like Iowa. We still don’t know that it will be. Hillary sure looked confident at her speech on CNN.

  313. Obama raising CASH:
    Obama is he getting SCARED again or is it a way to play the underdog after the Obama-Oprah hoorah? Who needs cash? Obama the greatest cash raising machine known in the democratic circle beating Hillary in the first round on raising cash! Who are we kidding now with mailings in the last week!!!

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

    Obama is getting away with murder and nobody in the press is raising a finger. His State Senator record of hundreds of votes as “PRESENT not VOTING” has not been questioned. He touts his judgment but does not leave a record trail behind to debate his judgment on issues / bills in Illinois Senate?

    Obama may have the press honeymoon for a while but he can not get the nomination without greater scrutiny. And scrutiny we need. Operations Research on Obama is not a “racist” action but part of legitimate politics and campaigning.

    For example: “Kerry Apology for MUSLIM remark on Obama”:

    Kerry does not have to apologize for STATING FACTS:

    He said “It’s probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama and his father was a Muslim and this his paternal grandmother is a Muslim,” he said at the time.”

    Yes Obama’s father is/was a Muslim and his mother an American White female.

    So what! Hillary/Bill do not have to get defensive about their comments, language, remarks on any forum be it Charlie Rose Show or Kerry’s event endorsing Hillary. There is no parsing or apology required.

    Obama needs to be brought down from the pedestal if he has to compete fair and square in this election cycle of 2008.

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/
    Yes Obama’s father is/was a Muslim and his mother an American White female.

    So what! Hillary/Bill do not have to get defensive about their comments, language, remarks on any forum be it Charlie Rose Show or Kerry’s event endorsing Hillary. There is no parsing or apology required.

    Obama needs to be brought down from the pedestal if he has to compete fair and square in this election cycle of 2008.

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

  314. I still think the bush strategy that go and find someone who will support you which is the strategy Hillary use ( she court old women) will work. The Axelrod strategy is John Kerry strategy which courted unsure voters the independents and republic which I think will fail. we will find out in two days.

  315. Good News from NH

    From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
    With exactly a week to go until New Hampshire, McCain has pulled ahead of Romney and Clinton has opened back up a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a 7News/Suffolk University poll.

    McCain gained 12 points since a month ago in the same survey to vault ahead of Romney 31%-25%. Romney had led in the December Suffolk poll 31%-19% over McCain. Giuliani is third with 14%, a three-point drop from 17%.

    A month ago, Clinton led Obama by 7 points (33%-26%), but now the poll shows her with a whopping 36%-22% lead. Apparently, Clinton has peeled away some of those undecideds from a month ago as that number dropped from 19% to just 12% this month. Edwards comes in third with 14%. (He had 15% in December.)

    The Republican numbers: McCain 31%, Romney 25%, Giuliani 14%, Huckabee 9%.

    The Democratic numbers: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 14%.

    firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/01/542238.aspx

  316. China import policy:
    Here comes the initial foreign policy flip-flop from our Illinois junior Senator inexperienced in giving statements:

    “Earlier this week, Obama said at a campaign event that he would “stop the import of all toys from China,”…..On criticism from China Obama BACKTRACKS and says: “Now, don’t get me wrong: as president, I’ll work with China to keep harmful toys off our shelves. But I’ll also immediately take steps to ensure that all toys are independently tested before they reach our stores, and I’ll significantly increase penalties on companies that break the rules.””

    What all Obama will ban what he will not is a judgment call which Obama has a lot of! 90% of imports to the US are from China. China enjoys the most favored nation status for perpetuity.

    It is this stranglehold giving the likes of Walmart lobby a distinct advantage for perpetuity! This will change in a Clinton administration. China’s most favored nation status will have to be passed on re-evaluation by the Congress on an annual basis.

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

  317. From articles today:

    “Obama says Hillary Clinton is Just Like Bush”

    “At a Des Moines rally that drew in more than 1,000 people despite freezing weather, Mr Obama abandoned his previous timidity and, while not mentioning her by name, aimed barbs straight at the former First Lady. “We can’t afford a politics that’s all about terrorism and ripping people down rather than lifting a country up,” he said. “We can’t afford a politics based on fear that leaves politicians to think the only way they can look tough on national security is to vote and act and talk just like George W Bush.”

    AND THERE’S MORE:

    “Obama Camp Calls Unions “Special Interests”

    “Barack Obama has always excited big Labor and other Democratic constituencies, even if they weren’t necessarily ready to endorse him for the presidency. Now, though, as Mr. Obama goes all out to undermine a surging John Edwards in the final days before the Iowa caucuses, that cordial relationship is being put to the test. Mr. Obama has essentially charged that Mr. Edwards is a hypocrite because, while Mr. Edwards has said he favors banning unregulated campaign money from outside groups, his campaign is getting millions of dollars worth of assistance from outside contributors — namely unions. What’s remarkable about this line of attack is that, while Mr. Obama is aiming squarely at Mr. Edwards, he also risks alienating some of the most powerful interest groups in Democratic Washington.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/01/

    Although this is odd to consider..given the types of statements he is making and appears to be willing to continue to make could that goofball Dick Morris be right? He predicted Obama may sweep the early primaries but when Democratic voters take a closer look at him Hillary will prevail in the later primaries. Just something to ponder….

  318. Obama on Electability:
    What Obama is forgetting is that he is dealing with America where in spite all is said and done RACISM is ALIVE. The so called polling that is done among the majority Whites give a very false impression.

    For fear of being labeled a “racist” they say they will vote for a Black man in Obama but in the voting booth in the General Election they will pull the lever for the White person.

    Hence Obama should not jump to ELECTABILITY conclusions based just on polls conducted in the United States of today’s America!

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

  319. TheRealist…that is very exciting news! I can’t wait to see if the other polls are similar. If so, perhaps the second thoughts about Obama are taking hold.

  320. TheRealist,
    Excellent! Just what we discussed last year (!) McCain’s surge will help Hillary immensely in NH.

    Must be a bummer for McCain though; the only way he can win the Rep primary in NH is by helping out the only Dem candidate that will crush him in the general.

  321. Obama proud of Bill Clinton’s Apointee support:
    Obama is proud of Bill Clinton’s appointees! But he can not claim Bill Clinton’s support can he? Appointees came from Bill Clinton and they will come again in 2009 from Bill Clinton’s help in a Hillary Administration.

    Go Hillary44 08! TheHillaryIKnow.com

  322. I am going to New Hampshire on Friday and staying through Wednesday, so the one thing I will say is don’t underestimate a passionate college student. However, it’s my belief that my passion for Hillary is based on fact, feeling and intelligence and it is not just blind faith that I seem to notice in other Obama college supporters. I’m going to do what I can and not give up on my girl, but I will say that as her support holds steady I would like to refer everyone to this story:

    http://www.storyarts.org/library/aesops/stories/tortoise.html

  323. from the NH poll–we will be able to track daily:

    “This poll kicks off a series of daily New Hampshire tracking polls to be conducted by 7NEWS/Suffolk University,” according to a release made available to NBC News. “Each poll will consider 250 likely Democratic and Republican primary voters statewide each day. A two-day rolling average of 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans will be reported every morning at 6:30 a.m. on ‘7NEWS Today in New England.’”

  324. Ben Smith at the Politico:


    “The Des Moines Register hasn’t released all the numbers from its last poll, but one thing’s pretty clear: This is a turnout story, not a story of people changing their minds. Obama’s gains appear to have been driven by independents saying they plan to attend Democratic caucuses and support him.

    I asked DMR pollster Ann Selzer whether the percentage of independents and Republicans saying they’d caucus had risen since the last survey.

    “Same method. More independents saying they will definitely/probably caucus,” she said in an e-mail.

    Meanwhile, two other polls have it tight, with Hillary up.

    That isn’t to say Selzer’s findings aren’t important, by any means. A win based on unprecedented outreach to the center could be the best kind of victory for Obama.

    But it also adds to the pressure on the ground game. As I’m told Obama’s Iowa director, Paul Tewes, warned his staff last night, “polls are sh**.”

    Then he told them not to drink too much, because they’re all working today.”

  325. The forecast for caucus day on Thursday in Iowa is clear with a high of 34 degrees. The day before is also expected to be sunny.

    That’s Hillary Clinton Weather. The roads and sidewalks will be clean and the ice melted enough to allow older women to get out and caucus for the New York senator.

    Clinton’s been placing a big emphasis on getting older women to caucus for her. Her events are well attended by them and there seems to be some excitement among some of them about how they can help elect the first woman to the presidency.

    Women will make up over 55 percent of the caucus attendees on Thursday.

    But Clinton’s aides worry that fears of falling on an icy night and breaking some fragile bones may prompt some women of a certain age to just forget the whole thing and stay home.

    But according to the latest forecasts, icy roads and sidewalks shouldn’t be a big concern that night. Oh, it’ll be a chilly January night but getting to a neighborhood meeting should be fairly easy for everyone.

    Multimedia
    Your Candidate? Find Your Presidential Match!We’re about to hear a lot about caucus night weather in the next few days. Reporters and political operatives have little else to discuss on caucus day so the talk invariably turns to the weather.

    Generally, it doesn’t have much of an impact – Iowans know how to get around in January. (The weather did play a role in 1972 when a storm kept many Democratic regulars at home, enabling the anti-war zealots to turn out for George McGovern. He scored a strong second place finish behind Ed Muskie as a result.)

  326. Just saw end of Hillary’s speech after they switched over to and back from BHO’s speech opening, which was extremely enlightening even though I told my son I’d need an Alka Seltzer afterwards.

    First, Michelle introduces BHO and the girls. Then, he makes all googly yada yada yada with the family.

    Next he says his thank yous before introducing his Ames, Iowa, campaign staff. I kid you not, my son says “you gotta be shitting me” .. these were all kids. I don’t mean young adults, but kids that looked like they were in highschool. After getting the whole line of them on stage with him, he goes down the line and does a black power arm shake with each of them. My son says he’s not going to win with that.

    Ok, by now I just about have had enough when BHO starts to speak. I said to my son that I just can’t stand the way he’s talking. My son .. ever the observant one, says that’s not talk, it’s rap. He’s right.

    May heaven help us.

  327. Two nice Hillary articles from the Nashua NH newspaper

    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071230/NEWS08/669615643

    “Clintons relying on NH for Victory Dec. 20, 2007

    Nashua Democratic Rep. Jane Clemons believes Hillary Clinton will win Iowa, but doesn’t need it to prevail here.
    “We don’t ever go in lockstep with what Iowa does,” Clemons said. “She’s in strong shape here no matter what happens.”

    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS08/201978538

    “Dinner Conversations Brought Balance to Clinton’s Life” Jan 1, 2008

  328. Lord save us, Hillfans. I think that DMR poll was a blindside and an attempt to influence the caucus. When news that is so counterintuitive is announced with so much fanfare and glitz in favor of one candidate, it is meant to influence the election. Hillary is running against multiple opponents in this election. The opponents are not just individuals–they are individuals who are symbols of somethin’ much bigger. We should pay attention to recent events and the ones planned like this unity bullshit goin’ on in Oklahoma. IT’s all about control of information…the big media, yes, but the information that comes into this country from abroad as well in the form of intelligence. Read and do your homework, kids. Read about Tom Daschle and his wife, the lobbyist. Read about Boren’s background. And I am sure there is equally inspiring information about Upchuck Hagel and the others who are bein’ touted as possible runnin’ mates for Bloomberg. One thing that doesn’t add up is what I read in the NYT yesterday. Bloomberg says he’ll run if there is a polarizin’ candidate “like Obama”. I don’t get it. I think there is a lot of misinformation out there. Do your own research, y’all. This election is about the stakes and they have never been higher. I think our free and open press is at stake. Question everythin’ and make your calls for our girl.

  329. Weird thing about the DMR poll: The GOP Iowa race is as competitive as the Dem one, yet a disproportionately large number of non-Dems will choose to vote in the Dem caucus?

    Bottom line is, we’ve known this has been about turnout for weeks. It still is.

    BTW, Obama’s strategy of catering to non-Dems won’t work once we get past NH, though I can see why he’s employing it.

  330. “I think that DMR poll was a blindside and an attempt to influence the caucus.”

    Molly, I was beginning to think the same thing. I also found the fact that Wolfson (HRC) and Prince (Edwards) were meeting to discuss the poll pretty interesting. Anyone here have speculation on that?

    Glad at least to see the NH poll. I think McCain’s surge is undoubtedly helping Hillary there.

  331. Mollyrichards:
    Considering the DMR endorsed Hillary, I do not think they would purposely attempt to sabotage her this late in the game. They just made a judgment to use a new model based on all the information they had, although I think they used a flawed model in this case. The problem with all these polls not just the DMR is they do not reflect the electorate since many people in today’s society no longer have land lines and are not being polled.

  332. Major Garrett at Fox News writes:

    The Democratic caucuses in Iowa are first and foremost a party-building exercise. It’s designed to attract hard-core party activists and those willing to partake in scut work throughout a hard-fought election year. That’s why turnout is low.

    Iowa has 700,000 registered Democrats. On caucuses night about 150,000 will participate, a small fraction of registered Democrats.

    So, if a party-building exercise fails to attract even a majority of registered Democrats, it’s hard to imagine a huge number of independents and Republicans will play ball.

    Many other possible trapdoors exist in the data, but for now all three leading campaigns see them as danger signs in the believability of the Register’s numbers.

    http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/01/democratic-campaigns-view-poll-numbers-in-iowa-with-some-hesitation/
    —-
    I think just about everyone except BHO’s people smell something funky going on.

  333. Good point about the endorsement, rjk1957.

    I find it telling, though, that nobody in Iowa (per Jake Tapper) thinks that turnout model is remotely accurate. Like kostner, my only real concern is the bandwagon effect this could have on undecided voters.

  334. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7652.html

    Obama-Labor Relationship Tense in Iowa

    Interesting articles today…there is more critical coverage slowly seeping into the media. This one isn’t entirely negative as its by Ben Smith wh appears to be an Obama supporter but it highlights the genuine concerns unions have regarding Obamas statements and campaign attacks. I think this could get more significant as time goes on…

  335. 2nd try (goofed up):

    Major Garrett at Fox News writes:

    The Democratic caucuses in Iowa are first and foremost a party-building exercise. It’s designed to attract hard-core party activists and those willing to partake in scut work throughout a hard-fought election year. That’s why turnout is low.

    Iowa has 700,000 registered Democrats. On caucuses night about 150,000 will participate, a small fraction of registered Democrats.

    So, if a party-building exercise fails to attract even a majority of registered Democrats, it’s hard to imagine a huge number of independents and Republicans will play ball.

    Many other possible trapdoors exist in the data, but for now all three leading campaigns see them as danger signs in the believability of the Register’s numbers.

    youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/01/democratic-campaigns-view-poll-numbers-in-iowa-with-some-hesitation/
    —-
    Looks like everyone except BHO’s people smell something funky going on.

  336. I hope you are right rjk. But I am speakin’ as a scientist and perhaps that is my mistake. I can’t imagine using the same logic in a truly scientific process. That would be like me tryin’ a new experiment a week before a conference, gettin’ totally new results that are different from everybody elses and then decidin’ to present my findings anyway. Who in there gall durned right mind would try a new model and then release the results of the new model which run counter to everybody else just a few days before caucus? I just don’t understand the logic here.

    I still think, given the behavior of the MSM throughout this election that ADMIN is right in saying that control for the media is a big issue here. And that may not be connected with the DMR poll at all, it may be completely separate.

  337. A big Mollyj hooray for Kostner. Welcome back! And a big hooray to 42 for a mighty powerful speech seen on CSPAN yesterday. Mollyj cried through the last 10 minutes. Yes, lord, 42 is one of the great southern storytellers.

  338. Liberal Bloggers Vs. Obama

    A largely untold story of the Democratic campaign so far is the absence of a kingmaker role by the top liberal bloggers, who never coalesced clearly around one candidate. For a while the netroots were mostly defined by their animus towards Hillary, but she managed to neutralize a lot of that energy. Chris Dodd was the sentimental favorite for many, but never gained the poll traction to do anything with it.

    As for Obama, he’s had his cheerleaders, but in the closing weeks of the Iowa race he’s been taking a striking amount of flak from lefty blog majordomos, some of which comes from the Paul Krugman, stop-attacking-from-the right, school of thought….

    Update: One more, from Ezra Klein. (Just brought to my attention–as all but one of these were–courtesy of the gleeful Edwards campaign.)

    blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/01/01/liberal-bloggers-vs-obama.aspx
    —-
    Be sure to read the Ezra Klein link.

  339. Here’s an idea. Since Bwak likes the young voters so much and they think themselves winners already, why not give them a party top celebrate. Hangovers can be a real bitch on caucus night. 😀

  340. Her campaign team is one of the smartest and innovative teams out there in either parties. They were the one who came up with the campaign song contest in the summer. They came up with the concept of “fact hub”. They came up with the idea of “The Hillary I know”.

    In 1992, it was Bill’s campaign which came up with the “war room” concept.

    Lot of these things are only being copied by other campaigns.

  341. Maybe BHO supporters will think he’s a shoe in and stay home rather than going to caucus for him because of this new DMR poll 🙂 And ditto to ra1029 … the image on HIllary Hub is priceless!

  342. Her campaign team is one of the smartest and innovative teams out there in either parties
    …not to mention they’ve got a fundraising prowess second to none.

  343. There is no “turnout model” in the DMR poll. They simply reported their findings, without any critical analysis of whether or not their findings are plausible.

    The DMR poll uses a loose “likely voter” screen, including respondents who say they will “definitely” caucus or “probably” caucus. They only leave out the third category – those who say they “probably won’t” caucus.

    This particular sample captured a very high proportion of non-Democrats. There are many reasons why the sample could be skewed over a holiday weekend. The most likely scenario is that registered Democrats have been getting more political calls for months than registered Independents — to the point where they simply didn’t answer the phone to respond to political calls over the weekend.

  344. hwc, I’m definitely not knowledgable about turn out models but I have conducted other types of statistical studies once upon a time. I do know that in order for data to have meaning, there have to be parameters, most importantly determining the sample. At the very least, DMR determined the source of the sample — not just random phone calls. It had to be pre-determined according to some criteria or it would have no meaning at all. The purpose of a sampling/poll is make a determination, not just take numbers and break them down and say “here it is”. For a poller who is supposed to be the be-all and end-all of reliability, this smacks of rank stupidity. Or a fix. Take your pick.

  345. Look, instead of complaining about the poll, I hope Hillary is doubling up her efforts in Iowa. And, I suspect she is. HWC is right. Take the poll for what it is. Probably not reliable, but part of that is because this whole primary is unpredictable. And, then hope like hell Hillary is doing everything she can to win in Iowa and then again in NH.

  346. “If the crowd numbers are that huge, and ours are this small, and they’re going to kick our ass then there’s no reason to explain it. Just show up and kick our ass. It’s better if you don’t say anything about it. Anytime anybody starts throwing those kinds of things around, it’s because they’re in deep shit.”

    — Edwards strategist Joe Trippi, quoted by The Nation, suggesting Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign is in trouble.

  347. I love that note on http://www.hillaryhub.com that some Iowan(s) put on their door:

    “We will support Hillary. Our decision is not open to justification or review. See you at caucus.”

    I think that is a great addition to a yard sign! 🙂

  348. Wouldn’t it be fair for us to now declare that Obama is the anti-Democratic choice? Apparently, his greatest support comes from so-called Independents, Republicans, and disenchanted youth, which according to a recent poll, prefer Obama and a third-party choice?

  349. Hill’s, “fiery”, new stump speech;

    “Posted: Tuesday, January 01, 2008 2:18 PM by Domenico Montanaro
    Filed Under: 2008, Clinton

    From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
    AMES, Iowa — Clinton kicked off 2008 with a long, rallying speech, beginning with the kind of energetic, straight-out-of-the-pulpit shout and response we haven’t seen from her very often on the campaign trail.

    In recent days, her events have begun with a round of Hillary trivia and T-shirt tossing to rev up the crowd. Today, when the senator took the stage she wished everyone a Happy New Year and then posed a series of questions.

    “After seven long years of George Bush and Dick Cheney, starting Thursday night, we are taking our country back and you all are gonna lead the way,” Clinton said.

    “Are you ready for change?” she asked a crowd that included several of the biggest names in media punditry. She went on to list the many things she would change, ending the war in Iraq, bringing troops home, ending dependence on foreign oil. The crowd played along, shouting “Yes” after each question.”

    firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/01/542475.aspx

  350. Have we already discussed Obama’s switch of accent when he addresses an audience in SC? I just viewed an excerpt of his Oprah speech in SC, and he was feigning an urban, African-American accent. Has anyone analyzed this?

  351. filbertsf, you are correct. Taylor Marsh has written a lot about this in that BHO has no ideology and appeals to voters who don’t either but are willing to follow a shiny new personality.

    pulchritude, he is all things to all people at any given time — a chameleon, if you will — everyone sees in him what they want to see and do not question the lack of substance.

  352. The purpose of a sampling/poll is make a determination, not just take numbers and break them down and say “here it is”.

    The DMR poll apparently just takes the numbers and puts them out. They used the same methodology for today’s poll as the last polls, but found a massive increase in Republicans and independents saying they would “definitely” or “probably” caucus in the Democratic race. They apparently didn’t not question their finding, or weight it

  353. The Republicans had their 8 years of partisan politics. And now that the Democrats are poised to take over the WH, people are screaming for bi-partisanship and the need for Independents?

    At a time when we should be fighting back, Obama waves the white and flag and declares himself the anti-Democratic candidate.

  354. The quote from Joe Trippi makes a lot of sense. There’s zero bluster coming from Hillary or Edwards right now.

  355. hwc, if this is the same method they used in 2004 – and we know they hit the bulleye – wouldn’t it bolster their results?

    Just to be clear, are you saying that they didn’t use a new turnout model as Mark Penn and ra1029 argues?

  356. BMerry

    because they vote.

    In Iowa, lastest number of registered voters:

    Dem 603000

    Rep 575000

    Ind 740000

    and these are ACTIVE voters.

  357. It’s just another poll, a snapshot of the recent past while the election itself is fluid and a MOVING picture. I respectfully suggest that all those agonizing over and trying to parse the results of the DMR poll simply move on, in the immortal words of Bill’s good friend, Elvis Costello (really, he called him, “My good friend, Elvis, at Hill’s 60th B-Day party), from a song called “Fish and Chips Papers”, as in, “Yesterday’s news is tomorrow’s fish & chips papers…” Move on and move FORWARD…:)

  358. TheRealist, agreed. Also, McCain actually made an appearance in Desmoines today. Perhaps he smells blood in the indie waters.

  359. Yes, but remember , two of the screening ques were, likelyhood of caucusing, and for Dems or Rep? DMR does make their original screen from voters, not merely registered voters

  360. BTW lots of us have some form of the “see you at the caucus” signs near our mailboxes or doorbells; our mailcarrier thinks it’s a hoot, told me he sees them all over town. He’s a Rep; we have recruited his wife, she went w/ us to JJ dinner as our guest, and is on the JJ dinner video. she is having the time of her life being a political activist…and we have scored another split marriage! rahrah ray!

  361. Emjay and B,
    They’re busing us up from Manhattan on Friday, but they haven’t told us exactly where yet. I know we’re staying in the YMCA though. I think by the end of the day today, I will know.

  362. I’m a bit headachy from my party this morning and my kitchen’s a pit…going to go do cleanup before the sun stops shining. Will catch up later.

  363. I always thought College Kids would Caucus for Ron Paul. On facebook and myspace he has the most friends and support by far.

  364. Hooray for Representative Donald Payne of New Jersey, for all y’all workin’ hard and caucusing in Iowa and all the gang goin’ up to New Hampshire! Wish I could join y’all…hoorays all around. We’ll meet at Hills inauguration! Hooray and Happy New Year!

  365. Those of us who are tired of IA-NH monopoly are not alone. A new poll conducted by the AP shows shows more than half of voters agree.

    Look for the article in the Politics section of Yahoo News.

    I don’t want to post a link because this post will in queue if I do, but here’s a few quotes:

    “According to national survey conducted for The Associated Press and Yahoo News, just over half of all voters said New Hampshire and Iowa have an extraordinary amount of influence over who wins the two nominations.

    “They have way too much — WAY too much — say,” said Kevin Thomas of Tacoma, Wash. “California’s a big state and they don’t have any say, and Iowa’s not even half the size of California. It really makes me as a voter wonder what’s going on.”

    Fewer than one in five voters said they favor the current system that allows Iowa and New Hampshire to hold the first contests, while nearly 80 percent would rather see other states get their chance at the front of the line.

    Thanks Howard Dean for helping IA and NH with the monopoly.

  366. I don’t know what to make of these polls. Three polls and WHY are they making so much about that one that Obama is ahead?? It is not fair for Republicans to vote in Democratic caucus. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Repugnants are not trying to make Obama the nominee because they KNOW they can beat him to a pulp in the general election!!

    I don’t see what people see in Obama! Wish SOMEBODY could clue me in! Why pick a “nobody” with his head in the sky who thinks he’s going “to change the world” over a woman who has the qualifications, experience and intelligence???

    I just cannot see Obama winning the general election. NOWAY!!!!!

    Whatever happens in Iowa, I am leaving for New Hampshire on Friday to campaign for Hillary next weekend!! She HAS to win there!!!!

  367. You can tell from the debates that Kucinich does not like Edwards. He went after Edwards on his Senate voting record. It seem personal.

    I don’t think Kucinich’s supporters would ever have considered Hillary.

  368. I’ve been surfing the net today checking out political statements. Just for fun…who said this quote? Sounds like a new JFK doesn’t he?

    “The spirit of cooperation I have seen in this hall is what is needed in Washington, D.C. It is the challenge of our moment. ……we must put politics behind us and work together to make the promise of America available for every one of our citizens…. I am optimistic that we can change the tone in Washington, D.C. Our nation must rise above a house divided. Americans share hopes and goals and values far more important than any political disagreements. Republicans want the best for our nation, and so do Democrats. Our votes may differ, but not our hopes. I know America wants reconciliation and unity. I know Americans want progress. And we must seize this moment and deliver.”

  369. We have a winner! You have it rjk1957! The quote is from his acceptance speech after the supreme court awarded him the Presidency in 2000.

    People have commented that Obama has been running George Bush’s campaign. I decided to check out some of the rhetoric and comments from that time and found this gem.

  370. this board still needs to stay positive
    polls are polls are polls are polls
    Obama is banking on the most unreliable age group and the greatest showing of independents of all time

  371. Report on Politico that Kucinich is telling his supporters to go to Obama if they don’t reach the 15% threshold Thursday night.

  372. It was the first line “The spirit of cooperation I have seen in this hall” that confused me. It couldn’t be Obama, he has done nothing “in this hall” – cooperative or not. And it didn’t quite feel like the Dubya we know…

    Congrats rjk 1957! 🙂

  373. couldn’t find the Politico story of Kucinich telling his voters to 2nd choice Obama…can someone post? very weird. Was just listening to Air America yesterday where the host Thom Hartmann was sampling voters across the U.S. and most picked Kucinich and Edwards…that seems odd for Kucinich supporters to instinctively embrace Obama; seems like a disconnect there.

  374. HRW

    sandwiches before the caucus, provided by the campaign?

    not in my low-level-tier county, even though we have one of those Iowa
    originated groceries hired by the campaign in my town, three blocks from the caucus site and they do platters all the time. In fact the first store opened before WWII by that now very large famous chain was in a small town in my county.

    There will be sandwiches however, provided by the Emjay kitchen and deli, because everyone has heard about it on TV news and in the newspapers.

    Catch that very important phrase, “low-tier county,” please, and imagine how much harder we have to work, without “buzz,” hillocopters, snow shovels (we have our own) and everything else you all are thrilled about.

    Just letting you know what reality is…it’s, first and always an allocation issue, and why our fuel is only…. faith energy and personal enthusiasm.

  375. lninla Says:

    January 1st, 2008 at 4:42 pm
    couldn’t find the Politico story of Kucinich telling his voters to 2nd choice Obama…can someone post? very weird. Was just listening to Air America yesterday where the host Thom Hartmann was sampling voters across the U.S. and most picked Kucinich and Edwards…that seems odd for Kucinich supporters to instinctively embrace Obama; seems like a disconnect there.

    They are purist voting on AUMF.

  376. filbert:

    What I’m saying is that the DMR poll got a wildly different demographic split in their poll this week compared to any of their previous polls this year or compared to ANY Iowa polling this year. They did not question the anomoly; they simply published the results. Maybe registered Democrats will stay home and turn their caucus over to independents and Republicans. Or maybe they won’t.

    2000 – 17% independents
    2004 – 19% independents (despite no Republican caucus)
    2008 DMR – 40% independents

    I’ve seen nothing to suggest that registered Democrats are uninterested in this year’s caucus and likely to skip it more than in 2004 or 2000. But, maybe the DMR is correct.

  377. Looked at The Politico (hi Ben) on Kucinich and it makes no sense to me although apparently it does to folks commenting there. Kucinich is pro-unions/labor, BHO is obviously not. If the logic is to swing BHO towards favoring labor, I think that ship has already sailed.

    Of course, this is only for the purpose of the Iowa caucus if DK doesn’t meet the 15% threshhold.

  378. Emjay:

    I second DemAC. I can only understand how much harders supporters in lower tier counties have to work to get the job done without the perks received from people in upper tier counties. It is done out of pure candidate loyalty alone.

    Thanks.

  379. B Merryfield, it’s AUMF. Kucinich is a purist. Remember, he voted against SCHIP because he wanted medicare for all.

  380. hwc, remember, Hillary’s Democratic supporters are resolute in their support. They aren’t the type to skip out on her just because of a poll. Also, since the race is so tight people still have curiousity. And for what it’s worth I have been watching CNN and Fox all day and while they are mentioning the DMR poll they are also talking about the conflicting polls and that it is basically a tied race. They are not going on air and saying “hey, it’s all over, Obama is the winner”. So at least from what I’ve seen it’s not being spun that it’s a done deal. I don’t think just this poll will deter people from caucusing. In fact, it may have the opposite affect IMO.

  381. Did anyone see on C-Span today when they were reading one of the newspapers? They said Obama not only plans to win the general election, but he thinks he’s GOING TO WIN BY A LANDSLIDE!!!! lol!!!!! Is this guy still on Cocaine????

  382. DenDC @ 11:50 pm

    from reading the folks on this site who understand how to read the internals and from the DSM site that reported the poll and Yepsen’s commentary last night, it sounds like the very-likelys are separated out from the mere likelys in the poll.

    Please correct me if I’m wrong.

  383. Speaking of idiots:

    “What the poll tells us is that Obama is successfully running as Joe Lieberman – I can’t win real Democrats, so I will butcher the progressive dream and run to the right of the middle, pretending to ‘moderation’ by calling progressives divisve extremists.”

    [snip]

    Independents and Republicans, people who either can’t make up their minds about politics or else want more conservative politics, are flocking to the non-message of Barry like flies to horseshit. One thing that would have been very instructive to ask the respondents is whether they voted in the last presidential election and who they voted for. I suspect Obama’s level of Nader and Bush voters would be very high compared to any other Democrat, though it would not be a high number. Most people supporting Obama have never bothered to vote before.

    Why is Obama a blow to progressives? Because he is explicitly running against solid progressive policies and is running as a David Broder “bipartisan” nebbish. He and Axelrod have taken advantage of the lax qualification rules for Iowa and New Hampshire to attract the people who would vote for Joe Liberman as a way to introduce a Republican-lite candidate on the Democratic side (Republicans and Republican-aligned Independents), and by those who vote for feel-good rhetoric rather than policy (most Independents).

    The result of this kind of voting is that the Democratic candidate is immediately moved to the right and the balance between the Democratic and Republican candidates is outside of progressive territory. It becomes a choice between a candidate who has loudly proclaimed he will compromise on everything and a candidate who says he won’t compromise on anything.

    It also elevates the candidate with the most unaired dirty laundry, the most visceral negatives and the least solid Democratic support to the front where the Republicans will have their pick of attacks on him – his drug abuse, his race, his inexperience, and his muddled religious background. The experience is a real talking point, the rest are crap, but does anyone think the Republicans will do anything but gutter attacks? They’ve already said they want Barry as the Democratic candidate, and believe me it’s not because they care about the Democrats.

    [snip]

    The real point is that if the general population is offered a non-entity who stands for nothing but makes nice-nice sounds about Kumbayah togetherness, that person will be inherently more attractive than someone who takes a firm and potentially divisive stance on anything. The political point is that anyone who runs from that nebbish position is not going to have a mandate or political leg to stand on when he hits Washington, because he has already committed himself to not make waves, and the opposition has made no such promise. Those who argue that Barry is just lying about his centrism and that he’ll be a leftist firebrand and staunch defender of the progressive cause when he actually gets to the White House are both delusional and pathetic.

    anglachelg.blogspot.com/2008/01/dmr-poll-is-real-and-blow-to.html

  384. DK also is the one who talked abut putting freaking Ron Paul as his VP. DK is not even really about ideological purity – DK is about getting his jollies by always being the underdog “outsider”.

    So even though Edwards would actually be closer to his policy positions, he will go with the young upstart because it’s all about being addicted to the drama, baybee.

  385. hwc – stuff like the DMR poll does make me anxious that the loophole in Democratic polling may be not taking into account Independents. The scary prospect is could the Democratic Wing of the Democratic party – those who are long-term or life-long Democrats – be trumped by those Independents and Republicans who show up on Caucus night and register as Democrats and bolster Obama’s strategy of winning by any means necessary? It would help if the MSM picked up on the analysis of the DMR poll – that 40% are independent and 5% GOP – it just amounts to near-cheating to me.

  386. On a lark I just ran the biorhythms of Hillary, Obama and Edwards for Jan. 3rd.
    Good day for Hillary
    Bad day for Obama
    Horrible day for Edwards

  387. Happy new year guys…turn it to bill r is on cspan right now..

    rjk1957 Says:

    January 1st, 2008 at 4:30 pm
    Watching Hillary live right now
    what chanell…

  388. Have you ever heard the term pyrrhic victory? It means winning the battle and losing the war.

    The zogby and cnn polls show Hillary winning with democrats. The DMR poll shows Barry leading if you include independents and Republicans. That is an important snapshot for the balance of the primary campaign, for several reasons.

    First, it shows that Barry is not the first choice of democrats, even in a state where he enjoys geograhical and media created advantages. Second, it implies that if he does win, he does so by not being a democrat. Third, it is has no bearing on the general election because there is no declared Republican on the Democratic Party ballot, thus there is no way to tell how those non democrats would vote in the GE– big media claims to the contrary notwithstanding.

    That message will not be lost on democratic voters in the Big Tuesday states. Therefore, if the DMR poll is accurate, if all its assumptions hold true and if Obama wins based on the soft support of independents and republicans who infiltrate that primary, then we may look back on that night and say that it was a pyrric victory that marked the beginning of the end for his candidacy– as a democrat.

  389. good news-a friend of mine flew to iowa to assist. she tells me hillary is surging. she is a longtime savy politico. she is stunned by the level of hillary’s organization there. mindblowing operation. hillary has hit her stride this closing week for sure-packed halls and ovations. se railing against bush bigtime and the party loves it. if mccin plans to be in iowa till caucus that may be good-he is etting attn from indies

  390. Hillary was in Ames IA today (as seen on CNN).
    From NYT:s “The Caucus”:


    AMES, Iowa – Call it post-New Year’s fun or pre-caucus jitters, but Hillary Rodham Clinton’s sense of humor – which her friends often recommend when trying to “humanize” her – was clearly on display today.
    Perhaps she was trying not to think about the Des Moines Register poll results, but Mrs. Clinton was quick with the punch lines this morning. Nearing the end of months of campaigning in Iowa, she likened the grueling process to a “consumer’s union.” (Her other line, about letting people look in her mouth like livestock for sale, got fewer laughs.) She trotted out her folksy story about boiling frogs with special panache, and milked the foibles of the Bush-Cheney administration with relish. She even used technical troubles as a source of punch lines. And the crowd of 750 ate it up.

    On Dick Cheney’s hunting mishap earlier this year: “The vice president shot somebody,” she said, to guffaws in the audience. “I thought, ‘I’ll never be surprised or shocked again.’”
    On a roar of approval coming from the adjoining room, when no one in her room made a sound: “That’s the overflow room. Either that, or it’s the end of a great New Year’s Eve party, I’m not sure which.” More chuckles.
    On feedback from the speakers: “I was in Muscatine yesterday in the middle of going on about the Bush administration, and the microphone completely died. I said, ‘I know they’re a little obsessed with me, but this is getting absurd.’”
    She killed.

  391. Paula:

    You need to know the birthdate of each and here is the link to run them
    http://www.bio-chart.com/

    Funny what it says about each of them for the 3rd. Pretty much says Edwards should not get out of bed and if he does to go back.
    on the chart make sure you click +2 days and not -2

  392. t4h, That’s great news. Hillary certainly seems confident, and I’m glad to hear her organization is top-notch. In a race this close, that’s huge.

  393. yes, texan4hillary, good to hear about McCain coming to Iowa and battling for the independents. and also hearing that Hillary is inspiring on the trail – on a totally different note – CNN Headline News, starting a new daily news cycle, is picking up on a story that Chelsea not speaking to reporters is scoring likability points for her mother. That’s a good thing – unlike Drudgereport, they’re showing both sides of this issue re: Chelsea not speaking to press, 9 year olds included. I have always admired the Clintons keeping Chelsea out of the spotlight and now that she’s an adult, she’s obviously there by her own choosing, and the Clintons are still shielding her from the horror of the press to twist and manipulate.

  394. Hill4Tex @ 11:39 last night

    From reading some of the comments on this site and the DMR.com site where Yepsen announced and discussed the results, it seems to me that the DMR uses up to date courthouse registration records, not party lists, as it’s pool from which they draw their samples, and separates out the very-likely and likely and not-so-likely caucus goers in the internals.

    If I am wrong, someone please correct me.

  395. Emjay, someone said earlier that they included likely and definately, only not likely, and definately not were not included.

  396. hope this doesn’t double post: Paul – yes, “Sydney Rieckhoff, the nine-year old reporter who was snubbed by Chelsea Clinton, tells MSNBC’s Contessa Brewer that while Chelsea wouldn’t talk to her, Hillary and Bill did.”

  397. Excuse me for sounding like an Obamazoid but Hillary is just “totally awesome.” Glad to see her having fun on the trail.

  398. i must vent after witnessing the collective suicide mentality last evening after the DMR poll results were posted. to say that i was upset would be an understatement. there are many of us who have spent the last year hitting the pavement for HRC. (emjay, hawk, A4Hill, HLRocks, LJ, MJ, Bmerry, freckles and myself, to name a few) from what i have gathered, our collective campaign results regarding HRC have been wonderful and inspiring. how can we lose with such an amazing woman as our candidate?

    not to mince words, i think what really fried my ass last night was the absolute surrender of HRC’s chances based on one stinking poll. suddenly, at the eleventh hour, certain posters were touting a smiling karl rove victory with iowa, NH and SC collapsing like a deck of cards. ( what do you think HRC’s reaction to the DMR results were? do you think she sat over in the corner of the room sniveling and crying like a big baby? do you think she was ready to give up iowa, NH and SC? )

    this is not the time to shit-upon an entire years worth of work based on some asinine poll or someones outrageous prediction. we have worked too hard for victory and will not rest until the last roll-call january 3, 2008 or the last ballot counted january 8, 2008.

    now is the time to lend support to those of us in the field and stand with us regardless of the outcome. we need a battle cry, not some wimpy-cry-baby reaction to a bunch of poll numbers. get over it, boys and girls. let’s put our heads and hearts together and move on to victory.

  399. I really don’t watch MSNBC so I have a question regarding Keith Olberman (sp). Is he a Clinton supporter or is he in the same class as Chris Mathews?

  400. i like reading stuff like this, after a Hillary rally on New Years Day…”Asked for impressions, Jan Dale, 66, his wife, Donna Dale, 66, and their friend Mitch Kerns, 48, all of Ames, said they intend to caucus for Clinton after attending Democrats Barack Obama and John Edwards events.

    “She’s the best speaker of all,” Jan Dale, a retired psychologist. “She has a better knowledge of all those problems than all the other candidates. “She’s a good woman,” said Donna Dale, a retired teacher. “It’d be good to have a woman president.” “I like the fact that she took questions and answered them and had very substantive answers,” Kerns answered. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS/80101008/-1/RSS22

  401. ….separates out the very-likely and likely and not-so-likely caucus goers in the internals.

    Not so much. They ask, will you:

    a) Definitely caucus

    b) Probably caucus

    c) Probably not caucus

    They count a) and b) as “likely” caucus goers.

    ARG, by contrast, asks twice. The first question of their survey is “one a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being definite), how likely are you to caucus? They only continue the interview with those who answer 6 to 10.

    Then, at the end of the interview, they ask the same question as the DMR, but only include “definitely will caucus” in their sample of likely voters.

  402. thanks mj.

    i’ll be working HRC campaign business 24/7 beginning 01/04 through 01/09. who knows, maybe we’ll cross paths..or better yet, run into each other tuesday night.

    thanks for coming up and lending a hand…your help is greatly appreciated!

  403. alcina, your “can-do” spirit and leadership will give Hillary victory for sure–we all probably need a pep talk at this time and to be reminded keep our focus on the goal.

  404. Alcina,

    My sentiments exactly. Thank you for all you and the others have done. Now, let’s win it.

  405. filbertsf: The DMR poll did not get it right in 2004. What they did was get the first two or three places in the correct order. But they were way off in percentages.

    They had 2 polls on their last day: likely and definite voters. They gave Gephardt 16 and 18 – he actually got 10.6 They gave Edwards 19 and something else (21?) He got 31. Their ‘success’ was due to the fact that even being way off for Edwards, they did have him in 2nd place which was true.

    What they can’t poll for are the Alcinas of Iowa who will give a rousing and fact-filled speech to attract more voters. My money is on them.

  406. hi hillfans, i slept all day. just checkin my hillary news. i checked hillaryclinton.com and they are down for maintenence.

  407. admin, i remember like it was yesturday your diary on the potential bloomberg run. despite his denials u told us back in the spring he was going to make a go of it. like i said before i have no problems of him running. but it will be interesting seeing him spend hundreds of millions oF dollars of ads on the air next year. hillary will win like a bill clinton win of 1992, hillary 43%,gop nominee 37%, and bloomberg 19%. there is no way i can see him even while spending his own vast fortune overtaking the hillary, maybe the gop nominee.

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