Hillary Clinton: Tested And Ready

Barack Obama typically copies the Hillary Clinton for president campaign – except in one glaring area.

Hillary Clinton established separately from the official campaign website, a pioneering website called The Fact Hub to immediately fact check lies about Hillary. Obama followed and got his version of a fact check site too.

Obama has a “Hillary Attacks” website which is supposed to track “attacks” made on Obama. Hillary has an innovative website called “AttackTimeline” which documents that it was Obama and Edwards which initiated the negative attack tactics in the Democratic Presidential campaign. The AttackTimeline website also keeps track of all new attacks directed at Hillary.

Hillary has a website called The Hillary I Know. The Hillary I Know website has testimonials from “those who know her best”. Over 40 people testify on video about Hillary. Betsy Ebeling has known Hillary since the sixth grade. Other testimonials come from the famous and not so famous who have known Hillary for years and years and years.

There is however no “The Barack/Barry I Know” equivalent website for Obama.

* * *

Where are the Obama testimonials?

And we don’t mean a testimonial from this indicted slumlord:

Indicted slumlord Antoin Rezko with long-time friend and financial investment Barack Obama

In an earlier discussion, the lack of any testimonials for Barack Obama was noted [link added]:

MollyJ, you make a good point when you write

I would never say that the impressions of a 9 year old weren’t important, we all know that these a formative years, for example, when kids are getting their view of the world–like, for example, what things matter, or what peoples matter, or what gender/ethnic group/age group matters.

Jeffrey Dahmer, to take an extreme example, developed many of his murderous, cannabalistic ways during his formative years. We know this about Dahmer because there have been many studies of him, court ordered examinations and in depth interviews with Dahmer and his father and familiy. There have also been close examinations of what Dahmer did day-to-day.

Hillary developed her hardworking, caring personality during those formative years too. We know this because there are many witnesses who knew her back then. These people are still alive and they testify to her life story. There are thousands of books written about her and tens of thousands of articles going back decades.

Obama developed his personality during those years too – but what were they?

We don’t know anything about this guy. Suppose that what Obama learned, as a privileged American living abroad in a very poor country, was to charm and lie his way through life, to tell people what they want to hear, to believe the compliments that came his way and developed a narcissistic world view. A world view that informed him that all that mattered was himself and what he wants and that no one else matters as long as he gets what he wants. Suppose.

Where are the character witnesses for this guy? How come there are no interviews of “the Barry I knew” when he was 6. No interviews from anyone in the community he “organized”. If Obama was a community organizer, how come there have not been televised profiles of people in the community? How come there are no surrogates at his rallies that say things like “I remember when Barry was a community organizer and such and such happened and he did such and such and that’s why I support him.”?

Isn’t this total lack of “presence” of people from his past a red flag?

The interviews we have read, not seen televised anywhere, dispute what Obama has written. Why haven’t TV stations interview the Altgeld (sp?) activists that have a completely different take on what Obama did as a community organizer than what Obama says he did as a community organizer?

Who is this guy?

What do we know about him? We know very little. The New York Times has raised some questions which were never answered.

Less than two months after ascending to the United States Senate, Barack Obama bought more than $50,000 worth of stock in two speculative companies whose major investors included some of his biggest political donors.

One of the companies was a biotech concern that was starting to develop a drug to treat avian flu. In March 2005, two weeks after buying about $5,000 of its shares, Mr. Obama took the lead in a legislative push for more federal spending to battle the disease.

The most recent financial disclosure form for Mr. Obama, an Illinois Democrat, also shows that he bought more than $50,000 in stock in a satellite communications business whose principal backers include four friends and donors who had raised more than $150,000 for his political committees. [snip]

Even so, the stock purchases raise questions about how he could unwittingly come to invest in two relatively obscure companies, whose backers happen to include generous contributors to his political committees. Among those donors was Jared Abbruzzese, a New York businessman now at the center of an F.B.I. inquiry into public corruption in Albany, who had also contributed to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a group that sought to undermine John Kerry’s Democratic presidential campaign in 2004.

Mr. Obama, who declined to be interviewed about the stock deals, has already had to contend with a controversy that arose out of his reliance on a major campaign contributor in Chicago to help him in a personal financial transaction. In that earlier case, he acknowledged last year that it had been a mistake to involve the contributor, a developer who has since been indicted in an unrelated political scandal, in deals related to the Obamas’ purchase of a home.

Michelle, has profited handsomely too from Obama’s entangled finances:

His wife, Michelle, a hospital vice president in Chicago, received a promotion that March, nearly tripling her salary to $317,000, and they bought a $1.6 million house in June. The house sat on a large property that was subdivided to make it more affordable, and one of Mr. Obama’s political donors bought the adjacent lot.

The disclosure forms show that the Obamas also placed several hundred thousand dollars in a new private-client account at JPMorgan Chase, a bond fund and a checking account at a Chicago bank.

But he put $50,000 to $100,000 into an account at UBS, which his aides say was recommended to him by a wealthy friend, George W. Haywood, who was also a major investor in both Skyterra and AVI BioPharma, public securities filings show.

Mr. Haywood and his wife, Cheryl, have contributed close to $50,000 to Mr. Obama’s campaigns and to his political action committee, the Hopefund. Mr. Haywood declined to comment.

Within two weeks of his purchase of the biotech stock that Feb. 22, Mr. Obama initiated what he has called “one of my top priorities since arriving in the Senate,” a push to increase federal financing to fight avian flu.

Lots of questions, never an answer.

Lots of questions about Michelle, never an answer.

We know practically nothing about Obama, other than what he has written himself – and that is in many respects crafted, bogus, fiction.

We can’t keep track of his made up stories, big and small.

Traveling in Iowa today U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., conducted a phone interview with Douglas Burns of Iowa Independent and the Carroll Daily Times Herald. Here is the exchange with the Democratic presidential candidate:

Iowa Independent: You’ve never travelled to continental Europe as far as I can tell. And if elected …

Obama: “No. No. No. That’s not accurate to say. What you’re saying is I haven’t taken a congressional delegation. I have not made an official trip. I’ve travelled through Europe extensively, and in fact, on my way back from Russia met with Tony Blair at 10 Downing Street with Senator Lugar the then chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Barack Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod tells Iowa Independent that his candidate is “well traveled.” This comes after an interview with Obama in which the Illinois senator and Democratic presidential candidate discussed foreign policy and his experience in Europe.

Iowa Independent: He’s been to Europe more than once?

Axelrod: Yeah, he’s very well traveled.

In the interview in Carroll, Axelrod made the case that Obama’s experiences and broad worldview equip him well for the presidency.

“I think that if you’d speak to people who aren’t running against him and asked them about his grasp, his knowledge, of the world, they would say it’s first-rate,” Axelrod said in an interview before Obama’s speech. “That’s why he’s got so much of the foreign policy establishment, particularly the group that opposed the war in Iraq, all gravitating to him. They understand we need to change not just the war but the mentality that led to it.”

Iowa Independent asked the Obama campaign for a more detailed accounting of Obama’s travels in Europe, both in an official capacity and as a private citizen. Nearly 48 hours later, we have not received any such information.

But evidence of a “well traveled Obama” is non-existent:

Doubts about Barack Obama’s presidential credentials have crystallized during the past two weeks over his stewardship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Subcommittee on European Affairs, which has convened no policy hearings since he took over as its chairman last January. That startling fact, first uncovered by Steve Clemons, who blogs on the Washington Note, prompted acid comment in Europe about the Illinois senator’s failure to visit the continent since assuming the committee post, and even speculation that he had never traveled there except for a short stopover in London. [snip]

“I’ve traveled extensively in Europe … I love Europe,” Obama told the Iowa Independent Web site a couple of days ago. But as Clemons noted on the Washington Note, the Obama campaign has not provided much detail on his European experiences and itineraries so far.

Those details are readily available, as indicated in a Chicago Tribune profile of Obama, which covered his 2005 senatorial trip to examine nuclear sites in Russia with Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., then the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. That story, whose deeper theme was Obama’s tutelage in foreign affairs, mentioned that he had traded his blue tourist passport — “which he had taken across Asia, Australia and Africa as well as most of Europe” — for a burgundy-colored passport that identifies him as an official of the U.S. government.

If Obama wants to show where he has been, he merely has to release his passport records. Then everyone would know that his boast about traveling extensively in Europe is true — even if this year he didn’t have time to convene a hearing on the momentous issues affecting our relations with that continent and the world.

As we have noted repeatedly, Obama’s “autobiographies” are of dubious veracity.

Obama changed names of real people, created composite characters and re-created conversations in his best-selling memoir. [snip]

Times staff writer Peter Wallsten raised the question in his story of whether Obama took too much credit in helping residents of Altgeld Gardens fight the Chicago Housing Authority over asbestos removal in the South Side complex in the 1980s. The paper headlined the piece ”Fellow activists say Obama’s memoir has too many I’s.”

Obama, 45, is hoping to dilute questions about his experience by arguing that the totality of his career — from community organizer to state senator to the U.S. Senate — should count, and not just his last two years in Washington. [snip]

Obama disclosed in his introduction that he used literary devices to buttress his recollections. He also kept a journal. In August 2004 I wrote a column about Obama’s use of literary license in Dreams and concluded: ”Except for public figures and his family, it is impossible to know who is real and who is not. . . .

“Colorful characters populate the Chicago chapters: Smitty the barber, LaTisha, the part-time manicurist, Angela, Ruby, Mrs. Turner and one Rafiq al Shabazz. Who they really are, or if they are composites, you would not know from reading the book.” [snip]

The Times article quotes Altgeld resident and community activist Hazel Johnson. My colleague, Sun-Times political writer Scott Fornek, interviewed her in 2004 and again on Monday.

Fornek reports that Johnson, 72, objects to Obama taking credit for helping force the CHA to remove asbestos at Altgeld Gardens. Johnson has not read Obama’s book. She said he played no role in the asbestos-removal fight. She said he did help get “angel hair,” another type of dangerous insulation, removed from attics in the complex’s row houses — and worked on public transportation issues and helped get a library built. ”He was not with us on the asbestos,” she said.

Have these people ever been interviewed on television? They certainly could not be used in any “Barry I know” website.

Obama obviously could not get testimonials from his constituents in Chicago – Not the ones who froze in winter.

You can’t even believe Obama about basketball:

That was big. Sixteen [years old]: I still remember the day that it first happened, one of those magical days when you’re just in a zone. … I was on the single-A team, and at the end of practice I was just raining down threes; I went and took a half-court shot and it went in. This friend of mine, Larry Tavares — I still remember, but of course he wouldn’t — he was shagging balls for me and I said, ‘You know what? I bet I can dunk today; I’m feeling good.’ and I took it and went … (he mimics throwing a ball down). I did it about two more times, and that was about it.’

UPDATE: High school basketball veterans for truth! A reader points out that Obama’s basketball days seem to predate the three-point line, which was introduced in the NBA in 1979 and college ball in 1980, thought it had been floating around some marginal leagues before that. Obama was 16 in 1977. And no three-point line in this excellent video, which I hadn’t seen before, of him (#23) playing high school ball. Pending a contemporary picture of his Hawaii court, though, the jury is going to remain out on this particular item of trivia. As long as his claim to have thrown away his trophies in an anti-war protest proves out …

Yes, lying about basketball:

So, first, nobody is actually alleging shocking untruth in the undramatic tale of Obama’s recollection of “raining down threes” as a 16-year-old.

But given the volume and detail in the e-mail I got about it (thanks!), I wanted to tie up the loose ends.

First, Mark Billingsley, an Obama supporter in California, did some homework:

Thomas Yoshida, the president of the Hawaii State Basketball Officials Association, said his state adopted the three-point line during the 1985-86 season, the same year that the National Federation of State High School Associations adopted it. All high schools in the nation were required to use it during that season. I asked him if it was possible that Hawaii high schools had a three-point line in use in the late 1970s or ’80s, and he said no.

Obama lied at Selma about the energy bill and about his own conception, he lies about his community organizer days. He lies about his health plan and “preconditions” and attacking Pakistan. He lies about basketball. Basketball.

Obama will eventually be vetted. The vetting will not be by Big Media. But the vetting will take place. Joe Conason notes:

But Obama and his supporters must cherish no illusions about what will happen to him if he vanquishes Clinton. He will need the same kind of armor that she has worn proudly for years. What the right likes best about him is that he doesn’t seem to own any.


268 thoughts on “Hillary Clinton: Tested And Ready

  1. Dot

    There’s already a ton of stuff on this site. Maybe we’ve got a geek that can collate it and move it over. Admin?

  2. Not sure what you mean Emjay. “collate it and move it over” – what and where?

    As to your first question, more than one open “window” is OK.

    Dot, lots of skeletons.

  3. hey All – Taylor Marsh has a great cartoon called “Tell me Again Why I’m not Supposed to like Hillary” – which apparently took up nearly a whole page in the LA Times (haven’t gotten myself a copy yet).


    If it is totally on the mark, and very funny – if only there were more pro-Hillary cartoonists because humor can really make the case more than the cluster-F of pundits.

  4. Admin,

    all the cool research and comments and links made on this topic on previous days, and those at two places simultaneously, like here and Taylor Marsh’s site.

  5. huge job Emjay. Good idea though.

    Ininla, great cartoon.

    Another bunch of reasons to love Bill Clinton:


    I’m spending today out in Western Iowa with Bill Clinton, since Politico has all the actual candidates covered, and because along with being at the core of Hillary’s candidacy, he remains the likeliest Democrat to say something you don’t expect.

    In the press section here in Cherokee: one ABC camera, a reporter and two interns from the local radio station, and five empty brown chairs. Just one plug in the mult box.

    But the room is packed, and rapt. And he’s still dropping news into digressions, like this one, when the environment and Al Gore came up:

    “When Supreme Court basically elected a president five to four –,” he began, and was interrupted by applause, and headed into a parenthetical.

    “I used to teach constitutional law,” he said. “That will go down in history as one of the five worst decisions ever made by the United States Supreme Court.”

  6. although I noted to Ben Smith on Politico – that framing Bill as “the likeliest Democrat to say something you don’t expect” seems like the press is looking for a Clinton-gotcha moment or some turn of the phrase they can totally blow up and take out of context to fuel the horserace a couple days before the Caucus.

  7. NOW Obama is saying that he knows if he is the nominee that “the Republicans will try and swiftboat and slimeboat me“.

    Ah, isn’t this the guy that claimed that only HE could find “Middle-ground” with the Republicans ? Isn’t this the guy who has adopted the Republican agenda on Social Security and other public policy positions ?

    Bambi would get slaughtered in a general election.

  8. not on video right now…just on cspan radio…she sounds fabulous…is picking up energy…”they say, there she goes again, talking about the past…well geez, it’s not like I’m talking about ancient Rome…”

    Woot, Woot, Woot…. you go girl !!!!!!

  9. emjay, I think what you’re listening to is what was just aired on C-SPAN. It’s her appearance in Iowa on Saturday.

  10. omg

    “maybe you don’t think you have to caucus for me b/c all your friends are going to….but go caucus for another person who is [disabled, in hospice or…] or in another state who has Parkinsons, whose…”

    Taped yesterday in Makocada IA…I’ve seen her several times, this was the BEST (even if just on audio-cspan). Can one of our smart, smart folks here get that and link us to it? It was an appearance yesterday & originally video broadcast yesterday.

    Somebody, please, please find this. Archive it. I’ll buy a copy, even. (So now you KNOW it’s great!)

  11. I wish Magic Johnson would go after Bwak for the 3 point line stuff. Maybe a line like “I know 3 point shooters, and Bwak, you are no 3 point shooter. ” 🙂

  12. Emjay:

    I watched it on C-SPAN TV. That was her best stump speech I have seen in quite some time. She has improved a lot, and she was much much better than Obama who was conscending.

  13. sorry to keep diverting conversation – I always get so frustrated that the MSM doesn’t pick up on this stuff – now even more conclusive video evidence that Bhutto was shot http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/062262.php and Obama who advocated honoring the Pakistani Govt’s own investigation (just to contradict Hillary who advocated an international investigation) is so WRONG – where’s his judgment now? I really do hope the news cycle of foreign policy experience vs bragging about judgment continues on some level. He is so full of sh*t!

  14. OkieAtty,
    “Senator, I served with 3 point shooters: I knew 3 point shooters. One 3 point shooter was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no 3 point shooter.”

  15. The MSM coverage numbers: Proves beyond any doubt how unfair the coverage has been. I do not know if NBC numbers cover MSNBC and CNBC.

    George Mason University’s Center for Media and Public Affairs published the major findings of a study of media coverage of the presidential candidates. It examines the nightly news on CBS, ABC, NBC, and Fox (the first half hour of Special Report) from October 1 to December 15.

    The results are interesting and consistent with what we generally know about media coverage.

    First, the press gave both parties’ insurgent candidates – Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee – more positive coverage than the frontrunners. Below is the percentage of positive coverage for all of the major candidates:

    McCain: 33%
    Giuliani: 39%
    Romney: 40%
    Clinton: 42%
    Thompson: 44%
    Huckabee: 50%
    Obama: 61%
    Edwards: 67%

    Most of the insurgent candidates are all grouped at the end of the list. The only exception is McCain – whose negative coverage might be explained by the fact that his campaign belly-flopped in the summer. Generally, this ordering is consistent with what we know about media coverage: it tends to be more generous to the candidates who are behind, and harsher to the candidates who are ahead.

  16. Admin,

    Is there a way we can get a scroll, or output of our own or another commenter’s comments? I saw another site one time, one could hit “profile” on the comment and get all the past posts for that author, themselves or another poster, that they were reading. May have even been HuffPO. Then I could find, and copy when I learn how, my literate 🙂 gems to the new thread.

    This bit sounds confusing but I know what I mean.

  17. I just saw the Mason Dixon poll and when second choices are considered, Edwards jumps way ahead to 33%. Obama and Hillary are at 26%. For some reason, I don’t feel good about her chances in Iowa because of this caucus system where cacus goers move to their second choices because their first choice did not meet the threshold. This is actually helping John Edwards a lot.

  18. Somebody remind me….

    Last organizing conf call b-4 caucus day in 20 min. 🙂

    I’ve missed 2 of last 3 🙁 because I got so engrossed here. 🙂

  19. as far as second choices, edwards, hillary, and obama are all likely to have support to be viable almost everywhere, so their supporters’ second choices don’t matter, the only ones who matter are likely nonviable candidates, i wish there was a poll of those only (eg supporters of biden, richardson, dodd, kucinich) but don’t think there is?

  20. another_reader:

    This is after reallocation of their supporters only. See the question and response below. This is what concerns me.

    Edwards 33%
    Obama 26%
    Clinton 26%
    Other 3%
    Uncommitted 2%
    Undecided 10%

  21. Shouldn’t we be more concerned about the 2nd choices for Biden, Richardson, Dodd and Kucinich more that we should be concerned about the 2nd choices for the top 3? We know that unless some miracle happens, they are not going to reach that 15% mark so they will have to caucus if they want to with any of the top 3. That’s the poll I want to see.

  22. another reader

    there is. if you trust zogby.

    its on the cspan all campaign-all weekend site.

    click on Z, it’ll take you to his post from this morning.

  23. Actually, I don’t think it really matters whom the Big Three candidates second choices are in Iowa. As others have pointed out, unless Hillary’s numbers fall below the 15% threshold at a particular caucas site (a veritable impossibility), her supporters won’t be required to make a second choice, the same for obama and edwards.

    Now, the second choices for all the other lower eschelon candidates that very well could fail to achieve a quorum (so-to-speak) might factor in to the outcome!

  24. Cotton-eyed Joe:

    It does matter. Even if Hillary’s stays above 15% threshold, if Biden or Richardson fail to make 15% and their supporters move to Edwards or Obama, it hurts Hillary.

    See the poll question and response, which I posted in my earlier post. It takes all these into consideration. That is why I am concerned.

  25. Ra1029, I do not believe that poll. I can not imagine that second choice of people voting for Biden, Richardson and Dodd is majority Edwards.

  26. Does anyone here think that Hillary should not have contested in Iowa?This is my prediction for Iowa:

    Hillary : 40% +
    Obama: 27%

  27. I hope you are right, Clintondem99. I just hope Hillary’s team sets expectations ahead of time because many people in the media are overlooking second choice responses, and saying it is a three-way tie based on first choice alone.

  28. well, if the results do happen to come up as this poll indicates (15% undecided and uncommitted still, which is a lot of people) it’s ok if edwards wins iowa, obama is in big trouble then, but hillary isn’t, edwards doesn’t have money for the long haul and hillary has big leads in super tues states. the way i see it obama needs momentum and he doesn’t have it

  29. Does anyone here think that Hillary should not have contested in Iowa?This is my prediction for Iowa:

    Hillary : 40% +
    Obama: 27%

    I am no where close to that optimistic as you. I am just hoping she comes second to Edwards or atleast a close third so that it won’t be a big blow going into NH. I will cross my fingers and just say that from your comments to gods ears.

  30. Take someone like Richardson for instance, won’t his supporters want to vote for Clinton as their 2nd choice since he seems to be auditioning for a vice president position with her? I may be off base here but that’s my thinking.

  31. I think the race will be over after Iowa. What do you think? I think Obama will be history after Thursday. May be he will be the new Pet rock or Hoola hoop.

  32. I believe that there are more closet Hillary voters than we thought. Besides, the momentum is in Hillary or Edwards but not in BHO.

  33. yesterday volunteers knocked on 10,000 doors making over 4500 face to face contacts! Thanks HillLandRocks!!

    and hill’s angels!!! are preceeding last appearences.

  34. Caroline:

    If they are judging just based on issue positions and experience alone, you are right. I am thinking that for voters, when making their decision, their evaluation starts with Hillary. IMO, once they eliminated her for whatever reason (mostly unknown animosity), they then move on to evaluate other candidates. I am assuming some of these Richardson, Biden supporters hate Hillary personally, and that is why are moving on to other choices. Otherwise, like you said, there is no reason why Biden, Dodd, and Richardson supporters would move to Edwards instead of Hillary.

  35. i agree with ra1029, let’s not make it a landslide for hillary in iowa just yet. she has to win or a close second to edwards. let’s not shoot for the stars just yet.

  36. told us we are so good we could have pulled off the Normandy invasion! she is so pumped! ted danson & mary steenbergen here on the 2nd–

    eat your hearts out—bill is here for new years eve–not allowed to say where til tomorrow—

  37. The flip side of having Edwards winning big, and having Obama and Hillary tied for a distant second in Iowa is it does a lot of damage to Obama’s candidacy as he won’t be the primary anti-Hillary candidate in NH. That should split the anti-Hillary vote further.

  38. A win in IA has nothing to do with delegates and everything to do with shutting the media up. Today on ‘Reliable Sources’ Howie Kurtz and Dana Milbank talked about how the media has its knives out waiting to slice Hillary every which way should she lose IA. If she wins, they’ll have to put the knives back in the drawer until NH.

    In addition to Obama and Edwards, Hillary’s opponent include the media itself.

  39. ra1029, if Edwards wins big (which I think he might) you are saying that will benefit Hillary?

    IMO, there are only two tickets out of Iowa. One is Hillary and other is anti-Hillary. If Edwards wins big (say 33-35%) and Hillary and Obama are tied for a distant second (say 26%), Edwards temporarily moves into the primary anti-Hillary spot in NH because NH primary is so close to Iowa caucus and there will be a temporary carry over effect. This will hurt BO in NH as some of his support in NH will move to Edwards. That should help Hillary win comfortably in NH. Obama might still come in second, but Edwards will make a big dent into his support at NH. After NH, it will be again a race between resurgent Hillary and badly damaged Obama with Edwards fading out subsequently.

  40. One interesting note that his school teacher in Indonesia noted when young Obama wrote that essay “I want to be President”. He did not say “President of which country”?

    Kenya? Indonesia? USA? The world?

    His step father was very instructive on Indonesian politics at the time!

  41. ra1029 what about an LA Times story today about some McCain people switching to Edwards and Obama? How does that factor in?

    Also, does Hillary have enough support to overtake a surging Edwards? I thought she was struggling a little in NH? Perhaps that is just hype by opponants?

  42. just got back..saw comment abt where do the undecs go…Thats what I liked about zogbys analysis this am…he tried to ans that ques

    for this mornings’ poll release google zogby poll second choice c-span

  43. The important thing is the story coming out of Iowa on both the republican and democratic sides. As long as the independents are split between Edwards, Obama, and McCain, Hillary should be okay.

    Keep in mind there is a McCain surge underway in NH right now. So, if there is an Edwards surge in Iowa, the independents who want to play spoilers will split between three of them.

    It will impact Hillary if Obama and Romney win Iowa, then all independents (who want to play spoilers) will turn up on democratic side to vote for Obama in NH.

  44. ra1029,

    It is impossible that Edwards wins big and Hillary a distance second. we may over estimate Edwards.

    I think Mark Penn himself commented recently that Edwards is doing well in Iowa right now.

  45. Yes, McCain’s surge in NH cannot possibly be good news for either Obama or Edwards; but every point of independents that McCain peels away from the Democratic primary to support him in the Republican ditto is extremely helpful to Hillary.

  46. ra1029, he may low estimate for Hillary and encourage BHO voters go to vinner Edwards.

    There is other evidence as well. Obama is now taking on Edwards much more forcefully with harsh rhetoric. His internal polls must be showing something.

  47. You are right, DemAC. At this point, McCain will be rooting for Hillary to do very well over Obama in Iowa, and Hillary will be rooting for McCain to do very well with independents in NH. 🙂

  48. Is there a site that collects anti-Obama or pro-Hillary cartoon ideas? I can’t draw but I have several ideas.

    And is there a site where we who live far from the caucus states can upload flyers etc? Like, .doc or .pdf or image files all ready for locals to print out and distribute?

    Hillaryis44 is a wonderful site, but I’m wondering if there are pro-Hillary ‘community’ sites where we can start topics, share files, etc? Admin is doing a great job here, don’t want to overwork her.

  49. You are dead on ra1029. From NYT:s “The Caucus”. Obama is gunning directly for Edwards:

    “Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) directly confronted the idea — pushed by former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) — that he is ‘too nice’ to bring about change in Washington, dismissing what he called ‘hot air’ and ‘rhetoric’.”

  50. mY 40+ for Hillary is based on how well Kerry did last time. When Iowa Cacus goers realise the stakes they would vote for Hillary. Do you think I am naive .

  51. And that link of mine at 9:52 pm is of course from WaPo’s “The Fix” – not NYT:s “The Caucus”. The link in itself is correct though.

  52. me to american gal..im a learning the process as i watch.. such good reporters,you guys need to be hired,on fox,cbs,abc,nbc,cspan,
    1 replacement for bloopie timmy,msnbc,1 replacement for stewie,
    I think Hillary comes here because this intelligence is professional like hers…so she can graze at, because she is a Political minded terribly bill to…its there first love…i think they do they can relax and watch they love this kinda of process/..lol..you have a great back up here mrs.clinton. Hillary might take some of you in her Administration and our admin here to,lol

  53. You are dead on ra1029. From NYT:s “The Caucus”. Obama is gunning directly for Edwards:

    Obama did not look like a happy camper these past three or four days. His internal polls are showing something. I think both Obama and Edwards camps played truce since summer because they realised most of people who had Obama as first choice had Edwards second and vice-versa.

    They wanted to play a delicate game of cajoling those voters into their camps because they realised any harsh attacks on each other would impact their future votes. They also realised that their voters are primarily anti-Hillary and will never move to her camp.

    That is why Edwards was playing nice with Obama because he thought he could eventually pull in some of those votes close to caucus time once they come to their senses and realise Obama is a neophyte with very little experience. Edwards also gambled that Clinton camp will not want a Obama victory in Iowa and so if some of Edwards supporters are moving to Obama, Hillary’s camp will go on offensive against Obama to bring his numbers down.

    Obama, for his part was thinking along the same lines that as election comes closer that most of Edwards supporters who have him as second will leave Edwards and join him as they realise that Edwards has no chance beyond Iowa.

    Now, Obama is realising from his internals that actually he is bleeding some of his support to Edwards and not the other way round, like his campaign anticipated. Hence, he going directly after Edwards now with caucus date coming close.

  54. meiyingsu..you are more than correct..i heard from my family there..and from some folks of bussiness where i work they have friends in iowa..they are smart and wont ever have anyone inexpierence.

  55. Voters don’t believe BHO has the gut to “change”, they go to Edwards. They will find that Edwards is phony on Jan.3 and vote Hillary.

  56. im still positive,she’ll win..we all have to..but boy they laying out the good and bad so that is very good.im learnin.

  57. You are dead on ra1029. From NYT:s “The Caucus”. Obama is gunning directly for Edwards:

    Obama did not look like a happy camper these past three or four days.

    you know what when i had him on mute today..i thought of that ..up above..think hes gonna get nasty you can see in his face.,it might not be nothing but im not so sure.he looks like what can i do next.

  58. Edwards wanted to keep the voter pool of primarily anti-Hillary caucus goers that he shares with Obama as large as possible until close to caucus date. He also wanted to prove to them that he is the primary anti-Hillary candidate by going most negative on Hillary from August till November.

  59. BHO can not talk up his expierence and Edwards can not change his flip-flop positions such as universal healthcare and the war. Hillary is in the best position to win.

  60. I think we are all gonna stay positive, and our girl will pull through.

    Hillary may still win this thing because she is going after new voters and she still has a very good organisation under Teresa Vilmain. Moreover, most of her supporters are middle aged and older people who are more likely to caucus (unless they are very old, in which case weather will have a say).

  61. ra1029, if Hillary won wouldn’t Obama and Edwards go more negative–they’d need to attract anti Hillary independents in NH ( and try to retain ones going to McCain). Or would they go more negative on each other? Do NH voters dislike negative campaigning like Iowans?

  62. ra1029, I’m all for lowering expectation and not declaring Hillary a winner in a landslide. But for you to already declare Edwards a big winner does not sit well with me.

    I’m don’t mean to be antagonistic, but I see you’ve already declared Edwards the winner over at Taylor’s site. Truth is, no one knows what will happen on Thursday.

  63. hillary sayds bill will be a confidante and advisor.and will not be in nsmeetings..edwards disagrees says its a complete fanatsy,bill will be not be in the background lol..

  64. I have a particular hatred of Edwards. It was he who started all this mudslinging. Don’t forget, before Obama, it was Edwards who framed Hillary as corrupt and a warmonger. I don’t forget easily.

    Remember the debate in which the media declared Hillary the loser b/c of the DL question? It was b/c Edwards was the nastiness person on that panel distorting her position and pouncing on her DL answer. It was he who got the media ball rolling.

    I actually don’t know who I hate more: Edwards or Obama. I may just sit out on the GE if Hillary is not nominated. That is the extent of my hatred for the Democratic Party.

  65. Edwards also says that he will seek Bill’s advise when he becomes president lol. I don’t even know how to respond to that. It is not ok for Hillary to seek advise from her husband when she is president but it’s ok for Edwards to seek advise. I swear these hypocrites just make me so mad.

  66. filbertsf,
    Now, now… While deeply understandable your worries are purely academic.

    Hillary will win this little primary thingy and then we want all the others to fall in line and be good and loyal Democrats. When she is President she will completely transcend these little unpleasantnesses.

  67. But for you to already declare Edwards a big winner does not sit well with me.

    I never declared Edwards winner any where. However, we will be fooling ourselves if we just look at first choice of caucus goers as every one seems to be doing, and ignoring what is happening beneath the surface with second choices. Edwards is doing very well right now by most polls when you take some of that into consideration. I am all for downplaying expectations. Infact, that is what I am trying to do with Hill supporters here and asking us to be aware that there is some complex stuff going on here with second choice votes and so forth.

    Other than that, I have also provided my opinion on strategy being adopted by Edwards and Obama teams in going after anti-Hillary votes, and how Edwards is winning it at the moment. I don’t think that is declaring Edwards a winner. It is just acknowledging that he could be a huge winner when second choices are considered based on current polls. If you look at what happened in 2004, Edwards and Kerry came up a few points (about 3 or 4 points) more in the post-caucus exit polls than in the entry polls because of precisely this factor.

  68. ra1029, how will the second choice aspect affect Hillary if she doesn’t make 1st place? Wouldn’t that move her to 3rd or would the fact that Obama will have lost votes to Edwards mean that she would come in 2nd?

  69. ra1029, if Hillary won wouldn’t Obama and Edwards go more negative–they’d need to attract anti Hillary independents in NH ( and try to retain ones going to McCain).

    If Hillary wins Iowa, they will go more negative. However, she will have a huge momentum. The independents in NH will jump into republican primary to vote for McCain because they will realise there is not much meddling around they could do in the dem. primary. Also, the dates between these two are so close that there is bound to be some spill over effect.

  70. Both BHO and Edwards are copying Hillary in that ” I make think change all my life” in the past a few days. The “hope for change” theme dispear in BHO camp. that is why I think Hillary wins the debate since the DMR debate.

  71. wow everyone on her myspace wishes her good new year and gonna win iowa..they all are pulling for her…over 15,000 comments today and yesterday…

  72. ra1029, how will the second choice aspect affect Hillary if she doesn’t make 1st place? Wouldn’t that move her to 3rd or would the fact that Obama will have lost votes to Edwards mean that she would come in 2nd?

    Just going by Mason Dixon poll alone, Hillary and Obama are tied when second choice factors are adjusted. However, it is complex to estimate it because there will be a lot of factors at play like

    1. At which precinct which candidate fails to reach 15% threshold and how will the rearrangement affect the result in that precinct.

    2. If you have enough voters for ‘x’ delegates, but not enough for ‘x+1’ then those remaining voters can switch over to some other candidate, or some other candidates support can switch over to you so that there can be an additional delegate. This will depend on the negotiating skill of precinct captains on how they can pull caucus goers from other candidate.

    So there are a lot of factors at play that is very difficult to poll.

  73. Both BHO and Edwards are copying Hillary in that ” I make think change all my life” in the past a few days.

    Obama has been plagiarizing Hillary’s statements for a long time. I can atleast 25 issue positions where he copied her explanations on why she said she took a particular stance. His campaign’s strategy was to copy all her positions on domestic issues and attack her on Iraq alone.

    Hillary’s team made a smart move by waiting for Obama to announce his health care plan first, and then pouncing on it. Otherwise, he would have copied her plan word for word.

  74. I appreciate all your information ra1029. You explain things more clear than the pundits out there.

    Thanks. I did not have a clue about how a caucus works until September. I have read a few articles about it recently. “desmoinesdem” at mydd, who is an Edwards precinct captain, also had a detailed explanation of how caucus works that was helpful.

  75. ra1029, fortunately, he can not copy her experience.

    He will copy that too. 🙂

    Remember, in summer Bill Clinton did an ad for Hillary where he said that she could have made a lot of career choices after college, but she chose public service. Guess who copied it word or word in his next ad? BO. His ad went along the lines of “Barack Obama had a lot of career choices once he left Harvard. Instead he chose community service”. He also went to the extent of saying that he pretty much has all the experience that she had. So, don’t bet on it. He is trying to copy everything from the Clintons.

  76. no one will ever have health care if hes elected…iowa they’ll realize that he change his mind.to put a mandate on it now all of a sudden..its to keep his voters. but if hes still against it, he’ll go back to his own way if and thats iffy its.. elected,,,they know it wont get done if they elect him…..flip flop…lying…all hes doing is lying..

  77. ra1029, you should make a list of these similarities. It would make for a great post. I think it would be very revealing for people to see them.

  78. He modified his position on health care after he saw that it was impacting his poll numbers. So BO, can we call you a poll-driven politician now?

  79. He called himself a “change agent” in his stump speech on CSpan today. I heard it, and snorted in disgust. Puhleeeze, I really don’t think Iowa voters are so stupid as to not recognize where he got that phrase.

  80. On a different topic…I read an article from the New York Times tonight that said Mayor Bloomberg would only enter the race if the opposing major party candidates are poles apart like Huckabee vs Obama or Edwards. I think because he would be able to campaign in the middle. I wonder if that means if Hillary is the nominee he won’t run?

    Lots of speculation on this today…ra1029 any thoughts?

  81. Bloomberg will not get in if he thinks he will hurt Hillary. He likes her. His aides quoted that in one of NYTimes articles few months back. They both have a good working relationship in New York unlike between Rudy and Bloomberg.

  82. I have a feeling BO spends most of his free time watching or reading about Hillary and Bill’s stump speeches. That is why subconsciously he is repeating their words. His whole campaign strategy is to convince people that “I am everything that Bill and Hillary are for minus the Iraq war vote in 2002.” That is why he keeps telling people that he has a lot of Bill Clinton’s past advisors advising him.

  83. Thanks ra1029. I also read that he likes McCain so if he becomes the Republican nominee that might keep him out as well.

    The article from the New York Times says he is really interested in running but would only enter if he thought he could win. I wondered if he would campaign against his friends.

    I can see that third party group wanting to have influence however. If Bloomberg doesn’t run they will probably pick someone else.

  84. I think Bloomberg might also enter in a scenario where he knows he can’t win, but can tilt the election in a particular direction. If he thinks he can help a particular candidate (who is okay by him) by siphoning votes from the other (who he dislikes), he will run.

  85. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/us/politics/31celebrate.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    “And The Des Moines Register is planning to release its final precaucus poll in its Jan. 1 issue, which will hit the paper’s Web site in the final hours of Dec. 31.”

    For the candidates with the lowest standing in the polls, the parties will probably have an elegiac air. Mr. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, has pinned his primary hopes on this state — he even moved here — and polls suggest he has virtually no chance of winning on Thursday. So his party sounds much like a goodbye-and-thank-you affair. “We’re going to be celebrating all the work the senator and the volunteers have put in over the last year,” said Colleen Flanagan, his press secretary.

  86. Thanks admin. This is from that same NYTimes article.

    “Even the best work party is still work,” said Jay Carson, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, who said he would try to slip away with his girlfriend but would probably spend most of the evening at campaign events instead.

    The transformation of New Year’s Eve into a work night seems like the logical, inevitable conclusion of a race that has swallowed the personal lives of everyone involved in it.

    Take Jamie Smith, a member of Mrs. Clinton’s traveling staff. Before she was hired or the caucus date was set, she planned her wedding for Monday night in Chicago. The wedding will last until 2 or 3 in the morning, she said, and a few hours later, she and her new husband will drive west so she can rejoin the campaign.

    What about connubial bliss? Her new husband?

    “I want Hillary Rodham Clinton to win so much,” explained the bride, “and I love her tons.”


    Our thanks goes not only to Jamie Smith, but to all Hill’s volunteers who are sacrificing so much to help her win this.

  87. ra1029, might he do that for Hillary?

    I think he will do it if it is “Hillary vs. Rudy” and if he thinks he can siphon votes from Rudy. He is not all sold on Rudy.

  88. ra1029, insightful comments. I had earlier thought that the anti-hillary vote will be split between Edwards and Obama and that would propel her to first place but now that they are all tied, it may still happen if the Dodd, Biden, Richardson supporters go for Hillary because of experience but some of that support might also go to Edwards. I don’t see that going to Obama. So looks to me like Obama will be the third place finisher here.

  89. I just don’t understand why the rest of the country has to be at the mercy of Iowa and it’s weird caucus and pint NH. I think this is what’s really grating on my nerves as the Primary nears.

    I live in the largest state with the largest population and the 7th biggest economy in the world and we California take a backseat to Iowa, NH and SC. It just doesn’t sense.

  90. gosh NH wmur/facebook is going to have a debate jan 5 at 9pm…for democrats…i thought debates were over until election time..

  91. Thanks Admin

    for the news on the DMR Poll. I had everyone in such a dither last night, I felt terrible.

    Two Days Late…One Loony (Loonie?) Short

  92. Emjay:

    Is there any thought given in advance to whom should be selected to represent the Clinton group at each caucus after they have established 15%? Clinton handily wins the young co-eds and the cute, little old ladies. If the bulk of the less than 15% group getters are white males, they are notorious for not syaing no to grandmas and cheerleaders.

    Also, is there any planning as far as what these people should say to try and persuade the less than 15% groups?

  93. Do you know that you can watch the caucuses live at the Des Moines Regsiter website and also I think on CSPAN? I am going to check it out–should be interesting..

  94. I’m so excited for the caucus. Maybe it’s because I had too much vodka on a Sunday night, but I’m on winter break and I hope to go to New Hampshire next weekend, but I love Hillary and I will do anything to help her. I think we should all focus our positive energies on her! Go Hillary, the best of the best. Better the BC dare I say…

  95. Watching Hill on Cspan. I read the “talking about the past” quote in print. You know, the one where she says ancient Rome. It does not do her delivery justice. “There she goes talking about the past . . . it’s not like I’m talking about ancient Rome. I’m talking about a few years ago.” (not exact quote)

    This is great stuff!!! Why wasn’t she saying this for months?!@*

  96. filbertsf@12:20

    Re first in the nation primary & caucus

    You weren’t here for the last go around, so here are most of the salient comments. It is probably best to read them all.

    Dec 28- 11:43 pm

    Dec 29- 1:46 am
    7:26 am
    8:47 am
    8:53 am
    12:35 pm
    3:09 pm
    10:12 ”
    10:45 ”
    11:03 ”
    11:08 “

  97. Same comment as above about her delivery of the 16 years I’m still here line. She should just say this stuff during her 2 minutes. Great stuff.

  98. AmericanGal

    Don’t know yet how many caucus sites they have picked. One C -span bus is in NH and one in IA…so they may pick just one site in Des Moines
    area. Wish you could see one in a Fire Hall, an individual’s volunteered home, etc.

  99. On the GOTV tel call tonight, they really liked hearing feedback from us re the ads.

    Try to do that for the campaign staff in your states, districts etc.

    They also wanted to hear about any negative robo-calls, attack ads on local radio and TV etc. Said we should let them know. After all there are more of us than the paid staff. They can’t be everywhere.

    I know I was the first to let my regional office know abt the DMR and Concord endorsements…they ended up knowing even before the largest office in this part of the state (hi HillaryLandRocks)

    We are the boots on the ground, along with all the HillStars, HillFriends and HillFans who have come to help and share in the launch of our girl to New Ham and beyond.

  100. Kentucky, I agree – those are great points, great lines. She nailed this one. Also, she is not trying to raise her voice so much in order to achieve a man’s volume, I noticed. She is remembering she has a microphone, so use it! This conversational style, with her voice softer, suits her well, I think.

    She is not a preacher, preaching at you – she is a converser, sharing her ideas with you.

  101. Admin: Alert – am listening to BO’s stump speech, and he is talking about diplomacy. He says that over Iran he “got into a little tussle with my opponents because they said, hey wait a minute, we can’t talk to guys we don’t like!”

    That’s a flat lie. Hillary never criticized the idea of talking with Iran or diplomacy with Iran or any other “guy we don’t like”- she only said promising a high-level personal meeting was foolish without laying the diplomatic groundwork and structure first.

    If there is a transcript of his speech here, he needs to be called on implying Hillary is anti-diplomacy with Iran like Bush is. Completely untrue.

  102. Don’t hate the messenger, but I hope the right wing takes down Huckabee. Have any of you seen the Huck interview with MTP? Ed Rollins has his message tightened very well. He is very fluid with the ideas and facts. Now, I am not saying I like what he is saying, but the framing is fantastic for the fanatical.

  103. KyMkt

    I don’t have a really good answer for you…I’ve been laying awake at night thinking thru how I’m going to do it. I have three good short points for the first alignment and hope I’m positive and enthusiastic enough to pep up my initial group, because everyone (those who want to) can then go to other persons and try to persuade them to caucus with us. I’m first going to sticker each person who initially comes to us and then send them forth for 10 minutes. I want to have a little self-congratulatory period and then send those who have spotted an undecided or lagger or someone they’d like to persuade back out for another 10 minutes. We get 30 minutes total for the first round. Then they count, and if realignment is needed, as many as need be will sally forth again and try to answer individual’s concerns.

    I just hope I’m good at it…though I’ve lived here almost four years, I’m still the newbie in town. The only thing I have going for me is my gift of gab, my knowledge about her policies, my own policy positions, which are hers, and a deep passion about getting this particular person into the White House.

  104. oops, forgot your “also” Question

    yeh, we’ve got cards with talking points available. Mine are on the back of my ID tag.

  105. That’s great Emjay. It seems like such a personal process, which is why I asked.

    What got me to thinking was all the ladies that were talking about their husbands who were anti-Clinton. Now, I can only speak for my neck of the woods, but a husband can lie in a voting booth but not a caucus and no husband around here would tell his wife no if she really wanted something.

  106. Thanks for the information Emjay! I know you will do well! Prayers with you. You have convinced me of your passion for certain = )

  107. LOL! Kentucky, it’s not just your own husband. I was going to say to Emjay that if there are caucusers for unviables floating around, zero in on the men lickety split! I’ll bet some determined ladies can nab them all for Hillary. Men are really bad at resisting a woman – just drag them all into our gal’s corner.

  108. Hahaha!!! Great minds think alike. H4T, you are totally picking up on what I am putting down. I have always thought about that when thinking about Iowa.

  109. Loved the funnies (now that’ll date me) page.

    Wow, C-span is chock full of good stuff on the campaigns. On .org page click campaign network, just to right of orange arrow. It even has the video of that fab speech we’ve been talking about.

  110. Wow!!! You people are something else!! How can Hillary possibly lose with people like you on her side? I read this stuff and I’m spellbound.

    In talking about how BHO has copied Hillary, on CSpan yesterday he was saying you have to “work” for change. Sounded familiar to me.

  111. Admin, based on the following comments, would not a chart or even website be a good idea where we could line up what Hillary said FIRST and where BHO copied her, nearly word-for-word as has been pointed out?

    For example, H4T wrote:

    – Admin: Alert – am listening to BO’s stump speech, and he is talking about diplomacy. He says that over Iran he “got into a little tussle with my opponents because they said, hey wait a minute, we can’t talk to guys we don’t like!”

    That’s a flat lie. Hillary never criticized the idea of talking with Iran or diplomacy with Iran or any other “guy we don’t like”- she only said promising a high-level personal meeting was foolish without laying the diplomatic groundwork and structure first.

    If there is a transcript of his speech here, he needs to be called on implying Hillary is anti-diplomacy with Iran like Bush is. Completely untrue.

    Another example, Sherm wrote:

    – In talking about how BHO has copied Hillary, on CSpan yesterday he was saying you have to “work” for change. Sounded familiar to me.

  112. Sherm, I agree! After this election, where am I going to get my B Merryfield notes?

    I’m sure that others agree, but I just want to thank B. Merrfield for the hardwork here and on other Websites.

    Thank you (I’m sure it is collective)!

    P.S. Admin, u have our emails, contact us after we elect our girl HRC so that we can elect more like her.

  113. If Hillary wins the first round in IA, I think the 2nd round may be OK. If you’re a Dem and happen to like Richardson or Biden or Kucinich and some of them are not viable, do you want someone to leave IA a winner or do you want to even up the caucus?

    Think of the physical aspect – standing with a winner – you want to celebrate a winner, so the leader will have a leg up. You don’t want the answer to be Dems don’t like any of the choices that much.

    Of course, I don’t understand Obama as a 2nd choice. Either you’ve drunk the Kool-Aid and won’t listen to reason or you haven’t. I’d like to hear the reasoning of, say, “I love Dodd because of his experience but he’s not viable in my precinct, he can’t win, so I’ll go to someone else who can’t win.”

    Maybe I’m just too depressed because I was robbed yesterday but if IA voters still don’t get it, it may be too hard to explain it to them. Take heart, they aren’t that reliable in getting it right and neither is NH.

  114. freckles Says: “Maybe I’m just too depressed because I was robbed yesterday.”

    Huh? (No insult freck but I don’t understand ur point.)

    Listen ladies (and gay men – keep it real!!!), we got a great candidate!!!

    Keep it honest. We win it real on us.

  115. http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2948587520071230?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true

    Clinton leads in Iowa; Huckabee, Romney even

    Sun Dec 30, 2007 5:22pm EST
    By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

    DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead in Iowa four days before the state opens the presidential nominating race, while Republicans Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are virtually tied, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

    Clinton, a New York senator, led Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 31 percent to 27 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a close third at 24 percent and no other Democratic contender registering in double-digits.


    The poll found about 6 percent of likely caucus-goers in each party are uncertain of their choice in Thursday’s contest, the first big test in the state-by-state battle to choose candidates for the November presidential election.

    “We have two very tight races that are too close to call,” said pollster John Zogby. “But there is a lot of potential for things to change here.”

    The poll of 934 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 867 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for the Democrats and 3.4 percentage points for the Republicans.


    Clinton, Obama and Edwards have battled for the Democratic lead for months in Iowa, where a win can generate huge momentum for later contests. The new poll showed Clinton, who would be the first woman in the White House, narrowly leading Obama among women voters and ahead among older voters, who are the most likely to participate.


    The poll found Clinton’s supporters were the most dedicated, with 76 percent saying their support was “very” strong, compared to 65 percent for Edwards and 56 percent for Obama.

    Under Iowa’s arcane caucus rules, candidates must receive support from 15 percent of the participants in each precinct to be viable. If not, their supporters can switch to other candidates.

    Edwards was the most popular second choice with 30 percent, while Obama had 25 percent and Clinton only 12 percent.


    The rolling three-day tracking poll will continue each day through the Iowa caucus on Thursday.

  116. blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2007/12/30/hillary-s-iowa-hand.aspx

    Hillary’s Iowa Hand

    That’s Hillary’s Iowa state director, Teresa Vilmain, working the rope line and passing out caucus signup cards at Clinton’s event tonight in the east-central town of Traer. (With a population of 1,594, Traer isn’t exactly a prime campaign destination. One local at the event tonight told me Hillary was the first candidate she can recall visiting, and added that she’d never considered caucusing until Clinton showed up. “I never gave it any thought, but I’m kind of excited [now],” said Kathleen Cochran, who appeared to be in her sixties. “Just to have her in our little town is exciting.” Cochran said she and her husband, John, are custodians at the American Legion post where Hillary appeared. “The Secret Service had a lot of questions for us!” she added.)

    Initially I thought that Vilmain–who roamed the hall after Hillary’s remarks calling, “Anybody want a caucus card?” and waving the cards in the air–was making an unusual, final-days appearance on the trail. But press aide Jay Carson (visible just to Vilmain’s right in the photo above) tells me she frequently travels with Hillary around the state. The idea is to set an inspiring example for the whole campaign team.

    –Michael Crowley

    Posted: Sunday, December 30, 2007 8:26 PM

  117. Dear freckles

    I wanted to say “I’m sorry for your loss” and leave it at that, but that sounds snarky.

    So I’ll say I am truly sorry. That is such a personal invasion. Are you alright? Did they get the person responsible? Is there anything we can do to help?

    Now that’s how we good-hearted, hard working, smart, reasonable and reliable Iowans react to another person who has taken an unwarrented hit.

  118. I just meant that I’m feeling depressed and maybe my reactions aren’t my normal cheery self. Just a personal comment. Sorry.

  119. Have you read the 1:18 am comment yet? Several folks have found those reference points helpful, even enlightening.

  120. When Dewey ran against Truman (I’m sure y’all remember that) he was a heavy favorite. Then some wit made the comment, “Dewey looks like the groom on a wedding cake.” It was apt and Dewey lost his presidential look. Nobody could forget it.

    With Obama, I’ve been waiting for the ‘wedding cake’ moment. I just read it: Obama lied about his basketball experience! I told it to a friend and he laughed out loud and then hooted. There went ‘honest’ ‘inspirational’ and ‘smart’. There is nothing like a little ridicule to unsettle devoted followers. I think every Hillary supporter should find a blog and repeat the 3-point tale until the press is forced to print it. It’s worth more than 3 points in the caucuses.

    Try it. Tell it to someone and see their reaction.

  121. freckles,

    You sometimes come off like Sally Quinn, but I am wiping all that from both my short term and long term memory, forever, because,


    It’s not sexual innuendo, it’s backed up by historical fact, it’s not attacking his family in any way, and it comes from his own story-telling.

    What a great idea. I’m off to find an opportune moment at a blog.

  122. Some bigwigs make “deals” on the golf course. It seems that BHO did his “deals” on the basketball court:

    “Obama and Giannoulias reportedly met on the basketball court ‘in the late 1990s … at the East Bank Club, a luxurious spot in downtown Chicago,’ Jodi Kantor wrote June 1, 2007, in the New York Times. Now, ‘thanks in part to [Obama’s] backing, [Giannoulias] is now the Illinois state treasurer. Other regular gymmates include the president of the Cook County Board of Commissioners, the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health and several investment bankers who were early and energetic fund-raisers,’ Kantor wrote.”

    Draw your own conclusions.


  123. Who said this?

    “This is our moment … This is our time, and if you will stand with me in five days, if you will caucus for me, if you believe in the idea of the American dream for those who are still hungry for opportunity … then I promise you, we will not just win a caucus, we will not just win an election in November, but can actually start working to create the kind of America that all of us dream about.”

    Sound familiar? Go see here:


  124. goodmorning hillfans, the nh hillary campaign called me yesturday to ask to help in nh next week. i will call them back and tell them sadly i won’t be able to help outstate. i will contribute money like i always do or maybe use my anytme cellphone minutes to phonebank. if she opens a office near hartford,ct i will help out locally. im on a tight budget and i won’t be able to afford the trip out there.

  125. JRE is doing a smackdown on BHO and it sounds like BHO ain’t happy:

    “Obama’s camp circulated a memo this weekend claiming groups supporting Edwards are airing ‘underhanded’ ads, triggering the firefight.

    “While this is not exactly a kitchen-table issue, those outside groups are nonetheless not allowed to coordinate with candidates.

    “’I’ve done exactly what I’m allowed to do under the law,’ Edwards told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

    “Bolstered by a key newspaper endorsement and new Hawkeye State polls that have Edwards either ahead or within striking distance, his campaign suggested its timely rise is giving Obama severe heartburn.

    “’Every poll since Christmas shows us moving up,’ said Edwards’ spokesman Eric Schultz, adding that media reports show the 2004 Democratic vice-presidential nominee is drawing larger-than-usual crowds.

    Obama sought to play the victim Sunday, saying, ‘We’re starting to see millions of dollars of money pouring in from outside groups, undisclosed donors, running negative ads against me. … We’ve seen this movie before, we’ve seen this script, and it won’t work this time.’

    “Until recently, Obama had taken aim primarily at Hillary Clinton, but his new slams are mostly at Edwards.

    “Clinton, who, according to polls, has regained her momentum in Iowa, steered clear of the skirmish and stuck to her message Sunday that she is the experienced candidate who can deal with a scary world — both at home and abroad.”


  126. Op-ed today from the Toronto Daily Star:

    “One of the very first questions on the student financial aid form required by the U.S. government asks if you have ever been convicted of a drug crime, you must check yes or no. If you check “yes,” it states that you are automatically disqualified from receiving assistance, now and forever. Period. Should a student get caught with a couple of joints, or even a pipe, and be prosecuted, the federal government cuts him off at the knees.

    “There is no similar question on forms for welfare or assistance-related programs. In fact much of the welfare roll is just such people with convictions and for much more dangerous drugs. I guess it’s hard to get a job with a drug conviction, so they need taxpayer charity.

    “Barack Hussein Obama has admitted that he used drugs, including cocaine, when he was younger. Granted, an admission of drug use isn’t a conviction but still … he is eligible for taxpayer dollars for his campaign.

    “Is it just me or is there something terribly wrong here?”


  127. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/712310312/-1/NEWS04

    Heh. I’ve been collecting quotes by and about McGovern. Haven’t found one I remember long ago about him ‘packing precinct meetings/caucuses’ with kids; was that him or McCarthy or both? ANyway here are some good ones:

    ”You need to appeal to rank-and-file Americans to win” a general election, Mr. McGovern said. But winning the nomination, he added, is something else [….]
    ”To win the nomination, you have to activate the voters,” Mr. McGovern said. ”Primary and caucus voters are the committed people who care about the issues, and in this instance about the war, and they are the ones who are prepared to go out in a blizzard to someone’s house for a caucus or to a fire station to vote.”

    By definition, the caucuses are dominated by activists [….]
    Democratic activists are out of sync with the country. That’s why party caucuses like Iowa are such a poor test of potential success in the general election.

  128. hillfans, there is a reason why obama is going after edwards hard. new zogby iowa tracking numbers, hillary 30%,edwards 26%, and obama 26%. reuters.com

  129. B Merry:

    Very effective case laid out by arkansasdemocrat on MyDD. Thanks for the link.

    In the last few months many people with a working brain and a more reasonable thought process joined MyDD community to make it a place where there could be a rational discussion as opposed to Dailykos and Huff post where the comments are unreadable because there is a lot of troll rating and ganging up. It is more of a bullying going on in these two sites than a rational discussion.

  130. Whatever is Marc Ambinder trying to say?

    “But John Edwards drew more than 1,000 people to a Des Moines rally tonight.

    “And there are no Illinois license plates in the parking lot…”


  131. “And there are no Illinois license plates in the parking lot…”

    I suppose what he means is that if there were Illinois plates, some of the crowd would be from Illinois, not Iowa voters. Maybe earlier there was a story about Obama or someone from Illinois getting a good crowd — but with lots of them having come in Illinois cars.

  132. Love that Zogby tracking poll Hillary leading the two jokers 30 26 26.

    The media personalities like Mika have a problems if Hillary gets her advice from Bill Clinton but have no problem if BHO gets his Foreign policy advice from his grand mother and cousins in Kenya and Indonesia.

    IMHO Mika and other MSM have their head stuck in Barack’s A$$

  133. Emjay — what exactly does coming off like Sally Quinn mean? What is she noted for?

    I can’t get over the basketball thingy. My friend called back and is still laughing.

  134. clintondem99, i saw all that obama brownosing. it is amazing how little mika does not mention her father advises obama. and klien is a obama shrill too.

  135. Terrondt, it is fascinating how the press hounded Jimmy carter when he mentioned Amy’s name while talking about world peace. They seem to have no problem when BHO talks about his foreign policy credential and keeps talking about his grand mother and cousins.

    Are we to take that these Kenyan and Indonesian citizens are talking in the best interest of US.

    I hear that 120 people are killed in Kenya due to election violence. How come BHO the foreign policy genius had no clue about this?

  136. I’m up, but not for long.

    I don’t believe my weeping eyes, it’s snowing again. Sorry HillLandRox.

    We had a nearly perfect day yesterday, sunshine melting last of snow off my front steps. Now, no sun, and flakes, not styrofoam, not dandruff, falling, falling. And out of the north, dammit.

    No four-five campaign stops today for our girl, or Bama either.

    Council Bluffs paper, The NonPareil, went for JE cause of his “rural roots.” Blechhh! How’d you let that happen HLR?

    I’m going back to bed til the snow stops or I get hungry, whichever comes first.

  137. Forgot to tell you the secret.

    Bill having a New Year’s Party tonight in Ottumwa, then another with Hillary and Chelsea in Des Moines. Heard where Hill was having hers, but forgot it.

    Sen. Maria Cantwell, of the great state of Washington, is Hillary’s 10TH Senatorial endorsement! (hi bill)

  138. I’m really beginning to think folks at MyDD have had an awakening or something. Poster ThinkingDem had a marvelous revelation about BHO’s “prescient” 2002 speech, which I cut and pasted into a TM diary.

    BHO said: “I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences.”

    ThinkingDem writes: “.. it still bugs me to no end that Democrats don’t recognize that by framing victory in the language of defeat BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN, Obama was setting himself up to run for Commander in Chief on the pre-ordained failure of the very troops he wants to command. How you people out there don’t see the truly disgusting, shameful, cynical long term political calculation in that phrase makes me fear for the future of the Party.


  139. ThinkingDem adds at MyDD:

    “But it is silly beyond the point of stupidity to give Obama credence for opposing, or being “right” about the Iraq war when his opposition was based on such faulty, nee stupid, logic and reasoning. It’s like a Teacher giving a kid in 4th grade credit for getting the answer to a long division question right without being able to figure out that the little bastard was just guessing.”

  140. clintondem99, i was around 10 years old around the 1980 debate between reagan and carter. hillfans, my 1st memory of following politics happened around 1977 when carter was president. i think my grandfather was watching carter’s address to congress on tv and without warning and knowing NOTHING about politics let alone political parties i said to my grandfather”wow, i like that guy, who is he grandpa?” 7 years old. i wish he had a more successful presidency.

  141. Is there any indication the information posted on this site is ever used by the media as leads to important political information? There is such a wealth of it here. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of what is here, while some seems to be offered with the suggestion that it needs another look. That is certainly fair.

    If any members of the press read such sites, I can only imagine two types. First would be those who lean toward the Democrats but ignore it because they may find it unfavorable to their preferred candidate. Second would be those who lean toward the GOP whom I suspect will glean any material they may be able to use in the GE.

    Then there are the GOP “researchers” who would use it for ammunition in the GE. Any serious, careful Dem voter should be aware that BHO is going to be in for a lot of heat, if he is lucky enough to win the nomination. That should give those voters cause for reconsidering their blind plunge into that pool.

    That latter is known as wishful thinking.

  142. Guess I’ve had my head up my butt, but I didn’t realize the “Bloomberg Meeting” was in Norman until late last night when watching the 10 o’clock news.

    Here’s what is interesting:

    1. Bloomberg gave the commencement speech at OU in May.
    2. David Boren is the OU president.
    3. Tom Daschle is an Obama supporter.
    4. Tom Daschle and Boren are buddies.
    5. Boren left the Senate very suddenly in 1994. Rumors were he was about to be outted by a new CIA chief not beholden to him politically or otherwise. Had something to do with re-upping his top secret security clearance. at least that was the rumor.
    6. Attending will be former U.S. Sens. Bill Cohen, a Maine Republican who also served as Defense secretary in the Clinton administration; John Danforth, a Missouri Republican; Bob Graham, a Florida Democrat; Chuck Robb, a Virginia Democrat; and Gary Hart, a Colorado Democrat; and former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, a Republican who led the Environmental Protection Agency under the current President Bush. All deem themselves “elder” statesmen.
    7. There will be a presentation of the group listed above in Holmberg Hall on the OU campus, 11:00 to noon on 7 January. Open to the public.
    8. I will be attending. Anyone in the area is welcome to meet up with me before hand.
    9. And, yes, as mentioned, Obama met with Bloomberg several weeks ago.
    10. One of our local political pundits stated online that there have been rumors of a Bloomberg/Boren run on campus. I doubt that as I haven’t heard it previously and Boren has too many rumors regarding being gay and raping his male staffers when in the Senate. A good friend of mine has seen him and a well-known male university benefactor in robes in the early morning at the benefactor’s home. Boren’s wife was not there, so he’s got serious baggage.
    11. Boren’s son, Dan, is a current OK congressman and a member of the “Blue Dog” coalition. He is viewed by many in this state as a DINO; however, he is popular in his district because he supports the Iraq war and that provides many needed jobs thru the McAlester munitions dump which provides all bombs, shells, etc. for the war in Iraq, etc..
    12. Dan’s former chief of staff recently lost a Lt. Gov. bid to Jeri Askins. His name is Peter Regan. Great guy. He was daddy, David’s, aid at OU.
    13. Boren, when he retired, was the head of the Senate Foreign Intelligence committee. He was a BIG dog. He is also still very well-liked in the state and other Midwestern states because he is so conservative.

    Here’s what I think may be going on: if Obama looks like he’s out as Dem nominee, he’ll sign on with Bloomberg. There’s built in name recognition, the ability to pull votes from Hillary when she’s the nominee and the 80M+ spent by Obama sort of magically roles over at least in effect. Something’s up. Do not discount this meeting. Boren never puts his head up unless he’s got a good position to go from. He has also stayed very much in close contact with his old intelligence community friends and has taken part in missions to Russia, etc. in the last several years with Nunn and others. My guess is Boren is the matsermind in this, not Bloomberg.

    I’m serious about hitting me up if someone is in my area. I am in Norman and live off campus.

  143. Another fun Bill Clinton story:


    “There’s a constant struggle between dealing with the incoming and keeping your promises,” Clinton said. “How a President does both determines how good a President is.”

    He also argued that voters should pay attention to how a person responds to failure. There is a section of the speech in which Bill Clinton reflects on asking his wife to take on America’s healthcare crisis in the early 1990s.

    President and Senator Clinton often tell a story about former New York Governor Mario Cuomo visiting the White House during that time period. As the story goes, Cuomo said to the First Lady after learning she’d been tasked with healthcare reform: “What did you do to make the President so mad at you?”

    Tonight the story went a little differently.

    “I get elected President and I say, ‘Hillary let’s do healthcare. I want you to fix that,'” Bill Clinton told the crowd. “And she said, ‘You really don’t love me anymore.'”

  144. admin:

    The last line was funny and I presume will be a hit with crowd. I can imagine how he would have delivered that ‘You really don’t love me anymore.’ line too. 🙂

  145. Democrats need to wake up. There are a few sites that are raising issues and asking questions, but the Big Media will be silent, for now. That doesn’t mean they are not aware, or are not storing up all of this crap about experience, and foreign policy gaffes, and the whole stinking Chicago associations angle, or the dearth of any information about this guy’s entire life that he did not write himself and sanitize for public consumption>/b>. Everything they know of BHO they are repeating from his own damn books.

    The media knows, but they will keep their traps shut and cover the “horse race”, until we have a nominee. Then, when they can’t flog that for a good story anymore, they will SUDDENLY be interested in BO’s fundraising connections, and the Rezko deals (trial starts in February), and who the hell ARE all of these people in his books that no one has ever talked to, etc. Then Timmeh and Stewie and Gregory and Klein et al will be all, “Oh, wow, Gee…look at this! We are shocked! Shocked, I say! Who knew any of this was out there?!” They will suddenly be maiden aunts who discovered Junior’s playboys under the mattress, chock full of offended purity and surprised morals.

    That is their game. That is always their game. And a lot of Democrats are too stupid and giddy over their fresh new face to see it for what it is.

    Our press has become an embarrassment the world over.

  146. H4T, frustrating, isn’t it?

    Sherm, in the end it will come down to delegates. An “Independent” run goes against the tide of Repug vs Dem delegates. At least here in NH, a Dem delegate votes for a Dem candidate and, theoretically, at least, an election is based on electoral votes.

    Someone like Nader is a spoiler. Not someone who is going to have the RNC or DNC delegates or enough electoral votes to win.

    Besides, I think that by now voters would be smart enough to smell a rat, particular a very rich one who wants to buy himself an election.

    Not only that, but ALL the BHO bullpucky would be fair game at that point.

  147. ClintonDem99

    “Sherm, He will never get the nomination. National trends are very much in tact.”

    Frankly I agree with that. I said he would have to be lucky to get it. Maybe you accept it that way because you don’t have a mean streak like I do. For example, I don’t want to merely win the Iowa caucus. I want overkill! I want BHO ashamed he ever tried to run for President with all of his baggage. I ain’t nice!

    In a more serious vein, I just wouldn’t want all of that to come out in the GE (IF the wrong candidate somehow got the nomination) and we end up with the Republicans still in control of the White House. I want us to pull out all the stops to make sure of that. I’m even dumb enough to want the media to start being fair to Hilliary. That would make it easy. I would like it that way.

    I still believe Hillary will win on Thursday night!

  148. Today’s rasmussen numbers:

    Hillary: 42
    Obama: 23
    Edwards: 16

    People keep making a big deal about how Obama is so close to beating Hillary. However, if I look at all the polls his numbers are more closer to Edwards than to Hillary’s. Also, the sum of their poll numbers is less than Hillary’s.

  149. BMerry- If it’s the guy I’m thinking of, then Michael Wright is a nutjob. I’ve seen that site before and I think he’s the same huy who has a hardon for Boren because the OU PHysical Plant makestoo much noise and he hasn’t slept in years and holds David soley responsible. I’ll get the rest of the scuttlebutt from my hubby, but the guy I’m thinking of is certifiable and I’ve met him several times when campaigning.

  150. word has it ras is not doing a iowa tracking poll but not a reg iowa poll either at all before the caucus. surprizing. he is usually on top of this hot races. “sigh”. rumor mill only but cnn may have some iowa and nh polls tonite. just a rumor.

  151. B. Merryfield, when you said “ALL the BHO bullpucky would be fair game at that point” I assume you mean at the time an independent ticket was announced. If that happened in time, then it could work out the way you stated.

    I still find it hard to believe Sam Nunn, and others, would go along with a 3rd party candidate situation. He’s smart enough to know such an effort would be doomed to failure – unless the Democrats selected a loser to run.

  152. The 3 options for Dem nominee as far as I can see are Hillary, BHO, and JRE. Only one of these could beat a Repug, which is our girl. Even though McCain would be a strong candidate, he has weaknesses as well. Plus he won’t be running on his own and his running mate could be his Achilles heel. We’ll have to wait and see.

  153. If I remember correctly, polls tend to get closer as elections near. While I like seeing those national figures, I don’t expect Hillary to win by that large of a margin, unless the others have been knocked out before Feb 5th.

    On another, but unrelated point, I wanted to mention that I don’t feel any desire to defend Joe Trippi when he is hit on this forum even though he and I were friendly when he began working in campaigns. We were merely friendly acquaintances. He was a professional and I was a novice. Things remained that way.

  154. Don’t know if you’ve seen the article “Obama’s Jakarta Friends Recall a Would-Be Leader, Tattle-Tale” (included on page), but one set of comments at DemUnderground are hysterical:

    Breaking News! Can you spot the real article?

    Former Clinton teacher: “Hillary would to cry when she scraped her knee.”
    Employer of Edwards’ father recalls: “Little Johnnie pooped his pants in my mill once”
    Biden’s babysitter: “Joe could always name world leaders.”
    Obama’s first-grade teacher: “Barry has more vision.”
    Gravel childhood friend: “Mike was always acted like a crazy old man”
    Doctor who delivered Dodd recalls: “I always knew that kid would go on to great things.”
    Former Kucinich landlord: “Dennis was always right about everything.”
    Giuliani’s first grade teacher: “Little Rudy always talked about the fire-drills.”
    Fred’s former friend: “Fred was always boring.”
    Huckabee’s Sunday school teacher: “Mike always loved 1 Timothy 1:12 and Ephesians 5:22”
    Paul’s playtime pal: “Ron decided to be an OB/GNY after Suzie Jaspermanssohns told him she didn’t want to play doctor with him.”


  155. The BHO beatdown on JRE continues:

    Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is conducting a conference call about outside spending by “shadowy groups” on behalf of John Edwards. He said, among other things, that Edwards “has obviously showed special skill in benefiting from outside spending and 527s.”

    During the call, a rival campaign sent out on oppo research memo about — David Plouffe. The memo details work that the firm of Plouffe and David Axelrod did for an independent expenditure entity in the past.


    Wonder who the “rival campaign” is? Gotta go see.

  156. BHO vs. Edwards benefits one person – Hillary.
    We all know Iowans dislike negativity especially this close to primary time.

  157. MP, I think so, too. Boren is very much tapped into stuff. OU has many BIG name speakers in the world of politics in the last 13 years. That’s also meant a lot of money coming into OU. It’s like a his own little fiefdom. Seriously. A lot of money. Some estimates are more than a billion bucks.

    Anyone remember the guy who blew himself up outside the OU stadium a couple of years ago? Boren handled that with the feds. My intel on it was very reliable it was a terrorist attack gone awry. But Boren killed the story. Sorta like the stories regarding the Nick guy beheaded on tape being an OU student and that he had ties to Mousawi (sp?) (the 20th hijacker) who was also an OU student beong killed. OU is a hotbed of Middle Eastern extremism believe it or not. Many ME students here are on the up and up, but some aren’t. The locals just live their lives and ignore it for the most part.

    I dunno, just Boren’s ties, his continued work in Russia with Nunn and now this meeting with Daschle’s input who is aiding the Obama campaign makes me think they might e setting up Obama as their own personal Dubya (i.e. puppet for a lot of old intelligence types albeit a different school than Cheney’s minions). Since Bush is a lame duck, this is a good time for them to make their move. It also makes sense since Boren hasn’t chimed in in local Democratic politics to support Hillary. Might be because the change at the CIA that might have forced him out occurred under Bill. It does mean one thing though- these guys are seriously scared of meaningful change and want to cut Hillary’s legs out from under her since she is such a vaible candidate.

  158. Plouffe sent a memo to reporters complaining out the 527 on the 29th, according to Marc Ambinder.

    “That Plouffe would descend into the weeds with Edwards over a 527 is suggests that the Obama campaign really wants to have this debate, and have it publicly, right now, five days before the Iowa caucuses. Indeed, for days, Obama himself has been flaying Edwards for hypocrisy, often by name.”

    Ambinder then writes: “Both Plouffe and David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist have worked for 527s in past campaigns.”


    More from MSNBC First Read: firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/11/510546.aspx

    No word, though, on who the “rival campaign” is.

  159. Update. Even worse, the comment was taken from Ben Smith’s article on BillC, making it doubly worse. Just like the rest of his Big Media crowd, he just wants to stir up as much Clinton-related muck as possible.

  160. Take it easy guys. It was mentioned in passing in that Ben Smith’s article. Folks are getting as we are getting close to elections accusing each other of playing race cards.

  161. ra1029, you’re right. I reviewed the article. This is no biggie. There was an article out last week that had Biden’s strategist asking if a woman could get elected, and that’s an actual strategist.

  162. Major Garrett, Fox News, said there was a rumor that the DMR poll to come out tomorrow morning will be bad new for BHO.

    It may be a false rumor, but I like it.

  163. The democrats for the most part played within the rules with Obama other than once when Bill Shaheen, when he went off on his own about Obama on drug use. Even though her campaign distanced themselves immediately and he has stepped down, and Hillary has personally apologised to Obama personally, that has still hurt her in NH at the polls.

    Contrast that with Obama whose campaign chief accused her of being indirectly responsible for Bhutto’s assassination and Obama himself made a reference to her having tea with ambassadors, and there was still no apology from him. No one from his team was asked to resign either. He however was lecturing her on how positive messages of campaigns need to be enforced top down.

  164. I’ve got a question about the Caucus procedure regarding second choices.

    Let’s say Hillary, O and E all have the requisite 15% in the room. Biden, Dodd, and K come up short.

    Does that mean they take the second choice of people who were planning to vote for B, D, and K?

  165. “The democrats for the most part played within the rules with Obama other than once when Bill Shaheen, when he went off on his own about Obama on drug use.”

    That wasn’t actual racial just stupid. Obama hints at sharing drug purchases with friends in his book.

  166. Sherm Kader:

    I don’t think I beleive that rumor. Do you think DMR will leak the content of their results to fox news? I have to commend Fox news though. They have been much fairer to Hillary compared to MSNBC. MSNBC’s coverage of Hillary is brutal accusing her of doing all evil things and glorifying Obama at the same time. If I did not know anything about US elections and just landed in US and started watching MSNBC, I would think that this Barack guy is second coming of Jesus Christ and that Hillary woman is a satan.

    I am thinking most of MSNBC’s Hillary coverage is driven by Tim Russert in the back ground.

  167. “I am thinking most of MSNBC’s Hillary coverage is driven by Tim Russert in the back ground.”


    Hillary did great in that abc interview, by the way. It’s stunning to note the difference between that aggressive interview and Tim Russerts fawning Obama talk.

  168. That wasn’t actual racial just stupid. Obama hints at sharing drug purchases with friends in his book.

    You are right. IMO, that was a valid question that republicans will pose in more stark terms, but Shaheen was not sensitive to the feelings of some people who have been affected by this issue. I don’t think Bill Clinton or Hillary would have ever approved of someone in their campaign team asking that particular question about Obama.

  169. RA1029, I certainly can’t defend that rumor. There is always the outside chance that he may have a “friend” there that tipped him off. I make that point simply because I would like for rumor to be true.

    I’ve also noticed Fox has been more fair to Hillary than I ever expected them to be.

    In your post above about playing by the rules, I feel your concerns. That kind of thing has been the main story about this campaign, but apparently that’s only among Hillary’s supporters.

  170. From Mike Allen’s Political Playbook:

    Guess who, during an hour-long riff in Iowa last night that included a salute Senator Clinton’s work in Upstate New York, gave a shout-out to “Mr. Russert in the back of the room”?

    Yes, that IS a toughie, so here’s a hint. Also in the back of the room: Betsy Fischer, Chuck Todd, Dan Balz, Chris “The Fix” Cillizza, Mark Halperin (I’m not making this up), Karen Avrich, John F. Harris, Jonathan Martin, Ryan Lizza and Kate Snow?

    Any guesses?

  171. LawSchoolDem:

    I am not able to guess. When the hint is all these reporters at the back of the room, what do all these reporters have in common?

  172. I am assuming it is Bill Clinton because why else do all these reporters appear at a Hillary event? Also, it can’t be Hillary because someone else was speaking of her accomplishments. So the only other person who spoke at a Hillary event for an hour and could get all these reporters in attendence is Bill.

  173. HforT, but why would Obama salute Hillary’s accomplishment in NY? You can’t accomplish anything when you’re too busy sipping tea.

  174. LawSchoolDem, I Googled Mike Allen, but I didn’t want to dig any further to learn the answer. However, I did find that he reported BHO’s claim of beating all the Repug’s and neither Hillary or JE did is false.

    It was worth the trip to see that someone is reporting that.

  175. It can’t be Obama. Why would Obama appear at a Hillary event and tout her accomplishments in upstate New York.

  176. Yeah, I’m not sure either. Mike does not provide an answer or a link to a story but the next paragraph starts with something about Bill. (President William Jefferson Clinton will continue campaigning in the Hawkeye State at “Pick a President” events today and tomorrow.) But the next paragraph is about BHO. I think it was probably Bill, unless riff and Clinton’s experience is being used sarcastically, then it might be BHO. If it is BHO and he’s giving Russert a shout out, it fits well within our narrative of their relationship being somewhat cozy too.

  177. From an article yesterday…Hillary has been attacked for no longer answering questions after her speeches but it turns out Obama is doing the same thing. Another incident of Obama copying Hil?

    “The New York senator (Clinton) took heat last week for not inviting voters to ask questions, even though Obama hasn’t answered questions at his last eight events.

    Obama aides went into overdrive earlier this month, trying to disprove what appeared to be another planting incident when an 18-year-old, who was wearing a press pass but initially identified himself to reporters as a volunteer, asked a friendly question about tax policy at an event.

    Independent reporting found he was on assignment for his local Iowa newspaper, and his mother worked as an Obama volunteer.”


  178. Here’s a fun tidbit about Stewie, in case you did not know: In his book, Mr. Blumenthal writes that Mr. Matthews wanted a job in the administration and ”lobbied the White House” to succeed Dee Dee Myers as press secretary, ”but the job had gone to Michael McCurry.”

    Mr. Blumenthal goes on to say that Mr. Matthews then ”turned into a detractor of Clinton,” though he draws no direct connection to the supposed failed job hunt. He also writes that Mr. Matthews told friends that his tough position on Mr. Clinton had bolstered his Nielsen ratings.

    Of course, this is not exactly what a credible news commentator like Mr. Matthews wants out in the ether — an implication, even if unintentional, that he turned on a president after being refused a job in his administration.

    It bothers Mr. Matthews because, he has told people at NBC News and elsewhere, it is simply not true.

    Mr. Matthews has backing for his case. Leon E. Panetta, then Mr. Clinton’s chief of staff, said he did, indeed, speak with Mr. Matthews about the job, which came open in 1994. But, Mr. Panetta said, he made the approach to Mr. Matthews, who was once a top aide for Thomas P. O’Neill when he was speaker of the House. And, he said, Mr. Matthews declined the offer.



  179. Have you guys seen the Rasmussen favorables/unfavorables?

    Looks like Obama now has the highest unfavorable of the top three Dem:

    Hillary: 48/50
    O: 43/51
    E: 49/42

    Quite honestly, I think E’s unfavorable should be higher. He’s been slingling mud nearly all year. If I didn’t dislike O so much, I’d say E is the dirtiest campaigner in this election cycle.

  180. Let’s say Hillary, O and E all have the requisite 15% in the room. Biden, Dodd, and K come up short. Does that mean they take the second choice of people who were planning to vote for B, D, and K?

    Yes. If you are standing in Biden’s corner and he doesn’t get to 15%, you have the option of moving to another candidate’s corner…perhaps even induced to do so by the promise of your local mayor (supporting a candidate) to scratch your back in some way.

    BTW, it’s important to remember that this 15% rule doesn’t apply to all precincts. It varies depending on the size of the precincts and how many delegates are awarded.

    Another thing that happens. Suppose Hillary has more than enough people in a precinct to get 10 delegates, but not enough to get 11. She can send her “extra” people over to another candidate (say Edwards instead of Obama) and still have her 10 delegates.

    Lots of games.

  181. hwc, as you write, there are so many complications with regards to the caucuses that the more you look at the rules and practices one fact stands out: the need for experience.

    With such complicated rules and permutations what matters is that the campaign have smart experienced people who know how to avoid traps and pitfalls and maximize advantages.

    Once again it comes down to experience.

  182. I understand the caucus rulebook has 72 pages. It can’t be very simple. The responsible people and for each candidate probably need to learn a lot of that unless there is an impartial judge and adviser at each precinct.

  183. Too many good postings today-and too little time to respond to all but two, briefly:

    Texan@1:00: what more proof do we need now that Russert et. al. are fully invested in OB, and have lost any pretense of objectivity. A sign should be hung around their collective necks with the words “Barry’s Amen Corner” prominently displayed, so there is truth in advertising.

    LawSchoolDem@1:11: it isn’t the fact that Matthews was rejected for press secretary in the Clinton White House that surprises me, but the fact that he ever applied for it in the first instance. This is a guy who could get in a fight in a phone booth. And, the Clinton team had standards of competence which he could never meet. Thus, the vendetta.

    But I am not suggesting he should give up on the idea. I believe he would be a great press secretary in the Bush White House, and I would encourage him to pursue it when Dana Perino steps down. He could stand in front of the press corps like David Gregory, Andrea Mitchell, Suzanne Malvaux, Helen Thomas, et. al. and shout, scream, cut them off, blather, provide a mountain of disinformation change the subject whenever it got close to the truth. Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

  184. pm, I think May-Fowler wrote a very poorly-written blog. I didn’t know where she was going or what she was driving with that piece. She talks about the older lady who met FDR and who thinks Obama is the next FDR. She talks about how crowded the room was and about how she was feeling inspired. Then taking a sharp turn without really providing the reasons, May-Fowler ponders whether these people will actually caucus for Obama.

  185. pm: the final verdict on Knocksville may be that in a state where many people are struggling ecomomically, and wondering how they will make ends meet, Solomic verses and glittering generalities are not enough to close the deal. Curiousity is one thing. Commitment is something else. And the caucus system as it has been explained to me requires not only experience, but above all comittment.

  186. filbertsf, I agree the blog is not all that well written but her main point is reflected in other blogs/posts as well. Obama is a media generated curiosity item which may not necessarily translate to caucus goers and ultimately votes (which is good news for Hillary and I like that). So the big crowds are actually damaging to his candidacy.

  187. While I may be guilty a little of this too on here, my wish for the New Year is that we stop using the slurs against our competitors. I know it is easy to slip into that. We don’t need to do this at all.

    I was at a NYE party tonight. And, once I actually discussed a few points about our girl, I left with a few more HRC supporters in tow. These were male, GWB voting Repugs too!!! All I did was explain HRC’s positions on fiscal conservatism and her TAG involvement. The object of my persuasion was amazed: “Really, I didn’t know Hillary was all about that.”

    This is easy my friends. For the NY, my wish is that we will have substantive policy discussions on big pink!!! We are on the right side of the issues. We’ll win if we just tell everyone why!

    God Bless You All.

    When women vote 4 women, women win!

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