How To Defeat Hillary Clinton, Part III

Update: Kostner in comments notes The Hill article:

Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has taken a markedly harsher tone toward chief rival and Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in recent days, and may be tarnishing his message of hope by doing so, according to analysts.[snip]

Those numbers, combined with a shrinking calendar, have created a “heightened sense of urgency” within the Obama campaign, pushing the senator away from his derisions of cynicism and political games and into a more traditional nomination battle.

Clinton now leads Obama in primary cash with nearly $35 million to Obama’s $32 million. Shortly after that was revealed late Monday night, Obama sent an e-mail to supporters with “Hillary’s Money” as the subject line.

In what amounted to a fundraising plea, Obama said Clinton was able to out-raise his campaign for the first time this year because of help from Washington lobbyists and special interests.

“Hillary Clinton aggressively seeks money from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs [political action committees],” the e-mail read. “She’s even said that these lobbyists represent real Americans. She’s wrong.”

That e-mail and a campaign “memo” released last week refer to Clinton as “the most entrenched political machine in Democratic politics” and “the greatest money machine in the history of American politics.” [snip]

But the increase and intensified criticism out of the Illinois senator’s camp does seem to represent a new strategy. As recently as Labor Day weekend, Obama — on the stump in New Hampshire at the time — was refraining from criticizing Clinton by name, indirectly including her in his remarks with his attacks on Washington and “Washington experience.” [snip]

In a speech Monday in Wisconsin, Obama seemed to be spreading the criticism, reportedly denouncing “triangulation and poll-driven politics,” which appears to be a shot at former President Clinton as well.

Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic strategist supporting Clinton’s campaign, said that by including President Clinton in his criticisms, Obama “runs a real risk that you’re going to turn off Democratic voters.”

“She and her husband are very popular with Democratic voters,” Elmendorf said. “You have to be very careful.”

In speeches early in his campaign, Obama refrained from criticizing Clinton altogether, instead saying that his rivals would not be the other candidates or the other party, but cynicism.

“Over the next year of a primary and the next two years leading to the election of the next president, the campaigns … shouldn’t be about making each other look bad, they should be about figuring out how we can all do some good for this precious country of ours,” Obama said at a Democratic National Committee meeting in February.

What’s clear is that with the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaching, possibly as soon as Jan. 3, if not sooner, the Obama campaign is upping the ante as it seeks to gain ground on Clinton.

Political analyst Charlie Cook told The Hill on Tuesday that Obama has to start throwing long bombs because there is “no prize for second place.”

“Obama has the ‘hope’ voters, but that’s only about a fifth of the Democratic electorate,” Cook said. “At third–and-long yardage, the quarterback sneak, while safe, isn’t likely to produce much yardage.”

———————————————————————————–

In How To Defeat Hillary Clinton, Part I we examined what Hillary opponents were doing and the likelihood of success. In How To Defeat Hillary Clinton, Part II, we surveyed the advice to Hillary opponents from PINOs, Naderites, Big Blogs, and Big Media.

Today, as we begin the latter part of October, approximately two and one-half months before the Iowa caucuses, we can assess the success/failure results of what Hillary opponents running for the nomination were/are doing and the efficacy what PINOs, Naderites, Big Blogs, and Big Media suggested these candidates do.

We’ll be real brief in our discussion of the tactics and advice we critiqued in Parts I and II of How To Defeat Hillary Clinton: we were right; the opposing candidates (sorry fellas – all 7 of you) and PINOs, Naderites, Big Blogs, and Big Media were wrong.

The effectiveness of the attack Hillary strategies can be scientifically assessed. Let’s assess the results of the attacks. Four recent national polls show Hillary with a show-stopping 50% +. The Washington Post/ABC News poll, the Opinion Dynamics poll, the Gallup poll, and today the CNN poll.

Here’s Gallup from yesterday:

She continues to widen her lead over rival Barack Obama, now 50%-21%, her biggest edge since spring. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards is at 13%. What’s more, two-thirds of Clinton’s supporters say they are “certain to support” her.

Fewer than half of the supporters of any other candidate in either party are firmly committed.

For Clinton, reaching the threshold of 50% support may have some value. Only once has a presidential candidate received as much as 50% support in a Gallup Poll and then gone on to lose his party’s nomination. That was Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy in 1980.

“Some of the other campaigns have tried negative strategies that have backfired while she has continued to be out there saying where she wants to take the country,” says Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist.

As Mark Penn says, “New Politics” Obama desperately continues to sling mud and American voters don’t like it. NBC News’ Aswini Anburajan politely refers to Obama mud slinging:

The rhetoric directed towards the Clintons from Obama has increased, Anburajan adds, and the distinctions he’s drawing are not just issue-based.

Here is a video of what is referred to as mud-slinging not issue-based attacks:


We get it Michelle. We get the innuendo. We see the mud as it splatters.

* * *

Here is the full NBC report which details the other Obama strategy to bring down Hillary:

Obama is now going after the OTHER Clinton, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan reports. At a rally in Madison, Wisconsin yesterday, Obama said, “We’ve had enough of … triangulation and poll-driven politics. That’s not what we need right now.” The triangulation term was coined during the Clinton Administration, when advisers to the president urged him to split the difference between opposing views in policy proposals.

This isn’t the first time that Obama has referred to the “other” Clinton. Just two weeks ago in New Hampshire, Obama quoted Bill Clinton to prove that too much experience in Washington is a bad thing. “The same old experience is not relevant… And you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience,” Obama told the crowd in Concord, adding in his punch line that this was a quote from when Bill Clinton was running for office in 1992.

The rhetoric directed towards the Clintons from Obama has increased, Anburajan adds, and the distinctions he’s drawing are not just issue-based. In Newton, Iowa on Oct. 12, Obama told the crowd, “There are other candidates in this race who are a lot more cautious, they will poll every questions in this race before the say a word.” And the next day at the Sisters on Target Dinner in Des Moines, Obama said, “I’m not going to win just by being the most calculating politician in this race.

Frankly we are stumped by Obama and his remarks on “calculating” and polling. We see the innuendo intended. But does Obama realize how he wounds himself with such remarks? Has Obama ever googled the words “Obama” and “calculating”? We did. This popped up, Barack Obama portrays the Democratic presidential candidate as a far more calculating politician than his most ardent supporters might imagine. … and this, Perhaps nothing illustrated Obama’s calculating style more than his approach to abortion. And this, I want to like Obama, but the criticisms others level at Hillary, seem to exude from him. He seems opportunistic, calculating, disingenuous. ... And this, Obama could be as calculating as they come. He promoted himself as a defender of abortion rights, but he encouraged fellow Democrats to vote “present” on …

As to polling, Obama in the second quarter was no slouch when it came to polling: Democratic White House hopeful Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) outspent chief rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) on polling and research by almost three to one during the last three months, according to the latest financial disclosure reports filed on Sunday.

We are equally stumped by Obama attacking Bill Clinton in order to enjoy himself and appease his rabid supporters on Big Blogs and Big Media calling for such a spousal attack. The Hillary campaign notes how counterproductive the Obama attack is: “Senator Obama spent the last week abandoning the politics of hope and attacking Senator Clinton. Looks like he’s begun this week by attacking her husband. The fact is that most Americans believe that Bill Clinton was a good president who moved the country forward.”

We are equally stumped by Obama’s latest travels:

Despite gloomy warnings about the unreliability of young voters, Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign continues to invest money and time in cultivating the campus crowd. [snip]

That’s not just a talking point for Obama, who has adopted a strategy that seems to thumb its nose at historical lessons a bit. Young voters are significantly less likely than older voters to show up for primaries, caucuses and elections.

Wisconsin? Avoid AARP in Iowa but embrace Madison, Wisconsin students? Do they caucus in Iowa? We’re stumped. We can’t believe Obama just likes the adoration.

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39 thoughts on “How To Defeat Hillary Clinton, Part III

  1. This whole idea is false. “How To Defeat Hillary Clinton, Part III”. Nobody can defeat her!

    Unless maybe it’s an Apple Pie bake off which I have a feeling is not very high on Hillary’s list of priorities.

  2. Right On…Nothing more to add to the topic…just this..the ball is in their court..they are going to turn the game up a notch for visibility..

    Protect the core Team. Afterall, we’re dealing with THUGS! Take nothing for granted, especially security… Remember, we are beating a hornets nest like a Piñata.. If my words are too vague, just remember someone I dearly liked and admired..Mr. Ruff. RIP..

    Mrs. S.

  3. The Hill:
    Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has taken a markedly harsher tone toward chief rival and Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in recent days, and may be tarnishing his message of hope by doing so, according to analysts.

    Monday’s third-quarter fundraising deadline showed that Clinton has moved out in front of the fundraising race, matching her leads in state and national polls.

    Those numbers, combined with a shrinking calendar, have created a “heightened sense of urgency” within the Obama campaign, pushing the senator away from his derisions of cynicism and political games and into a more traditional nomination battle.

    Clinton now leads Obama in primary cash with nearly $35 million to Obama’s $32 million. Shortly after that was revealed late Monday night, Obama sent an e-mail to supporters with “Hillary’s Money” as the subject line.

    In what amounted to a fundraising plea, Obama said Clinton was able to out-raise his campaign for the first time this year because of help from Washington lobbyists and special interests.

    “Hillary Clinton aggressively seeks money from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs [political action committees],” the e-mail read. “She’s even said that these lobbyists represent real Americans. She’s wrong.”

    That e-mail and a campaign “memo” released last week refer to Clinton as “the most entrenched political machine in Democratic politics” and “the greatest money machine in the history of American politics.”

    E-mails mentioning Clinton by name have not been unusual for other Democratic candidates, specifically former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), who has made similar remarks about Clinton for much of the year.

    But the increase and intensified criticism out of the Illinois senator’s camp does seem to represent a new strategy. As recently as Labor Day weekend, Obama — on the stump in New Hampshire at the time — was refraining from criticizing Clinton by name, indirectly including her in his remarks with his attacks on Washington and “Washington experience.”

    The Clinton campaign repeatedly has responded to Obama’s criticisms by accusing him of running a different campaign than the one he promised.

    “It’s unfortunate that Sen. Obama continues to abandon the politics of hope and embrace the kind of attack politics he used to deride,” Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said Tuesday. Singer added, “It’s clear that Sen. Obama spent last week attacking Sen. Clinton, and he is continuing that tactic this week.”

    In a speech Monday in Wisconsin, Obama seemed to be spreading the criticism, reportedly denouncing “triangulation and poll-driven politics,” which appears to be a shot at former President Clinton as well.

    Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic strategist supporting Clinton’s campaign, said that by including President Clinton in his criticisms, Obama “runs a real risk that you’re going to turn off Democratic voters.”

    “She and her husband are very popular with Democratic voters,” Elmendorf said. “You have to be very careful.”

    In speeches early in his campaign, Obama refrained from criticizing Clinton altogether, instead saying that his rivals would not be the other candidates or the other party, but cynicism.

    “Over the next year of a primary and the next two years leading to the election of the next president, the campaigns … shouldn’t be about making each other look bad, they should be about figuring out how we can all do some good for this precious country of ours,” Obama said at a Democratic National Committee meeting in February.

    For its part, the Obama campaign has responded by saying that it is merely highlighting the differences between the campaigns.

    “Sen. Obama believes in leading by example, which is why he has not only refused to take a dime from federal lobbyists or PACs, but why he has fought for the most sweeping ethics and lobbying reforms in both the Illinois state Senate and the U.S. Senate,” spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in an e-mail. “Obama was able to raise more primary dollars than any other candidate in the race by tapping real people and the thousands across the country who are committed to changing the country.

    “I would hardly call pointing out the difference an attack.”

    What’s clear is that with the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaching, possibly as soon as Jan. 3, if not sooner, the Obama campaign is upping the ante as it seeks to gain ground on Clinton.

    Political analyst Charlie Cook told The Hill on Tuesday that Obama has to start throwing long bombs because there is “no prize for second place.”

    “Obama has the ‘hope’ voters, but that’s only about a fifth of the Democratic electorate,” Cook said. “At third–and-long yardage, the quarterback sneak, while safe, isn’t likely to produce much yardage.”

  4. This could be a bombshell.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6382.html

    Until recently, I did not think that any state actually would hold its 2008 primary as early as this December.

    But after two days of talking to officials in the early primary states, especially to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, I have been forced to change my mind.

    “December is a possibility,” Gardner told me Tuesday. “It is not my preference. But it could become my preference.”

    But if New Hampshire goes in December, would Iowa, which traditionally holds its caucuses eight days before New Hampshire, also move to December?

    Maybe not. Iowa could stay in January and, for the first time, hold its contest after New Hampshire.

  5. I just heard on the news tonight that Iowa moved their caucuses to Jan. 3. Did I hear that right? Does that mean that New Hampshire now moves their primary sooner? I haven’t been following all of these scheduling issues that closely.

    I wonder what the next debate will be like if Obama and Edwards are getting more strident…will the MSM actually comment negatively on them for a change? (I doubt it..)

    I caught Rudy G tonight on Fox News. I hope Hillary responds in some way to his “lack of experience” comments…

  6. admin, That would definitely help Hillary. Her lead in NH is pretty solid right now.

    BTW, this quote from Charlie Cook sums everything up in a nutshell:

    Political analyst Charlie Cook told The Hill on Tuesday that Obama has to start throwing long bombs because there is “no prize for second place.”

  7. Admin, just saw your post. If a primary is scheduled for December how early can it be held during that month? And if one state moves to December can others? This sounds like a big mess overall…

  8. AmericanGal, NH can move its primary as early as it wants to. We’ve heard December 7 or 14 as likely choices, but that was a few months ago.

    As Paul pointed out Hillary is way ahead (21%) in NH so this would be havoc on Obama and Edwards.

    Of course we would insist that Obama and the rest remove their names from the ballot as they did in Michigan. 🙂

    NewHampster, your comment reminds us of the song “Anything you can do I can do better” from the musical Annie Get Your Gun. “Can you bake a pie? – No. – Neither can I.” We also bet that if Hillary puts her mind to it she can bake one tasty apple pie.”

  9. YES! I love this New Hampshire thing. I am from Iowa and would love them to go first. That would help us out sooooo much! She has a solid lead there. YES! I am so excited!

  10. Paula, excerpt below is from Hannity and Combs on FoxNews from tonight. Yes, he’s attacking her experience. If Rudy becomes the Republican nominee the campaign should be a hoot.

    Excerpt from Drudge (this matches what I heard on the broadcast):

    R. GIULIANI: “Honestly, in most respects, I don’t know Hillary’s experience. She’s never run a city, she’s never run a state. She’s never run a business. She has never met a payroll. She has never been responsible for the safety and security of millions of people, much less even hundreds of people.

    “So I’m trying to figure out where the experience is here. It would seem to me that in a time of difficult problems and war we don’t want on the job training for an executive. The reality is that these areas in which – maybe there are some areas in which she has experience but the areas of having the responsibility of the safety and security of millions of people on your shoulders is not something Hillary has ever had any experience with.”

  11. I really hope that secretary of state in NH does move it to December. Our governor said he would not be down with the caucuses being held in December. Please!!!!!!!!! I hope New Hampshire does (:

  12. I think Joe Biden put it best in the last major debate when he said Giuliani is the most unexperienced candidate running when it comes to foreign policy (: Giuliani is a hilariously sad candidate. Ah I am so excited if NH moves their primary.

  13. Celiff, you might get your wish.

    The NYTimes chimes in:

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/16/get-ready-for-new-years-in-iowa/index.html?ex=1193198400&en=56539f48ccfcacdc&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY

    Still no word from Bill Gardner, the secretary of state in New Hampshire, on when he plans to set that state’s primary, but there’s talk of December.

    The Iowa Republicans moved their caucus in order to maintain their status as the first-in-the-nation caucus state. State law requires that the caucuses be held at least a week before anyone else’s. Iowa was set for Jan. 14.

    But then Michigan muscled its way to the front of the line to Jan. 15. That forced Iowa Republicans to move ahead; they have been debating between Jan. 3 and Jan. 5. The party’s central committee members held a conference call tonight and chose Jan. 3.
    “With under 80 days to go, this is a huge help to our counties and county chairs to get the ball rolling and start organizing,” Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican party, said in a statement. “They have 1,784 precinct caucus meetings to run, thousands of volunteers to recruit and our presidential candidates deserve a set date.”

    What will the Democrats do? The situation is a little different for them. The Democratic presidential candidates have agreed not to campaign in Michigan because in moving up its primary, Michigan broke the national party rules.

    That made Iowa and New Hampshire mad _ so mad that the Democrats in those states forced the Democratic candidates to sign a pledge that they wouldn’t campaign in Michigan (or Florida, which also broke the rules). And four of the Democratic candidates have dropped out of Michigan. So there’s no real race there on the Democratic side. That means that Iowa Democrats don’t have to worry about the one-week rule.

  14. Admin, I don’t feel ready to do my own diaries but I have been making some comments on blogs. One issue that has come up frequently is Hillary’s vote against the Feinstein/Leahy amendment.

    I’m sure that Hillary (and Dodd, and Biden) had good reasons for voting against it, but I can’t find what those reasons are. I’ve done searches on the internet but everything I find is negative about Hillary. I’d like better information so that I can address this when it is brought up.

    Do you have any idea of what the rationale was for voting against this amendment?

    Do you have any ideas?

  15. I notice there are a number of Obama voters on the blogs that seem to want him to run as Gore’s VP. Doesn’t that demonstrate atleast a little dissatisfaction? Maybe a recognition of his lack of experience or a recognition that he won’t likely beat Hillary.

  16. if nh jumps into dec then it will be stripped of all its delegates as penalty by the dnc. which wouldmake iowa the 1st official contest on jan3rd. calendar chaos and Im sick of it. it is not fair to voters orthe candidates. im in texas and it looks to me after all these states jump around violating dn rules our state may actually have real delegates to goto denver while these early states break the rules and lose out.

  17. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Did you guys hear this?!?!

    Obama and Dick Cheney are RELATED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Oh man, the good news are piling on! 😀 😀 🙂

  18. Did you all see the new line of attack? They are saying (Johnny E and Bill Richardson) that “Hillary is acting like she’s already won”. She has. The funny thing is is that this is all they have left. They attck her, her numbers rise, and they are definitely desperate.

  19. terrondt,

    Finally a poll from CT. LOL.

    Q released three Feb 5th states polls this morning.

    NY:
    Clinton 49
    Obama 12
    Edwards 11

    NJ:
    Clinton 46
    Obama 20

    CT:
    Clinton 43
    Obama 16

  20. How is saying that she is acting like she has already won, an attack??
    I don’t get it, she is winning, they are just stating the obvious.

    Nice poll kostner. 😀

  21. She did break 30% in the caucuses! That is the thing to look for. YES! This is good. I saw Joe Wilson this morning, he was awesome. He spoke so eloquently about Hillary. He told a story that when he and his famous wife Valerie were about to leave Washington to go back to New Mexico, they had dinner with Hillary. She was 15 minutes late because of a vote in the senate (the restaurant was near the capitol) and when she got there she told them that she may have to leave to go vote but she would come back quickly. She was told the voting was done however, and she, Joe said, leaned back in her chair, he said if she’d had had a tie she would have loosened it, she rolled her shoulders and called the waiter and ordered a martini. He said that that was much more interesting than having a beer with George Bush would ever have been (: He was awesome.

  22. Can somebody write a diary about this IA poll on dailykooks? Those nuts need another dose of shock and awe…

  23. celiff, thanks for sharing that story.
    I love those stories, moments where she is away from the spotlight.
    You know she loosens up so much when the cameras are not around, and everyone who knows her says she has a great sense of humor and a quick wit.
    Imagine if she dared to show more of ‘herself’.
    Her favorability would shoot through the roof. But then again, maybe she will as time goes on, she seems to have found herself a bit more. 🙂
    And with so many people having a bad impression of her only helps her now, they see she is not the devil the repugs have painted her as. It works to her benefit, it wouldn’t had she ‘shown’ herself more in the past.

    Funny how it all works out isn’t it?! 😀

  24. Martini drinker? Who said Hillary can’t appeal to Republican crossover voters?

    Wait ’til I tell my martini-drinking Hillary-hatin’ father! He might switch his vote from Julie Anna.

  25. I just saw a report on CNN, in it was a brief clip of Obama saying: “If we win Iowa, I’ll be the nominee”.

    What a dick head, excuse me!
    Has he not seen a poll in NH in a while? Has he not seen a poll from Nevada? Has he heard the term firewall?

    I don’t get this thinking that whatever Iowa votes, that suddenly the rest of the nation will throw their opinion out the window and go along with them. The primary is where you can speak your mind without dramatic consequences of a republican winning as a result of you going with YOUR opinion. This is the time all can decide to not to be a sheep!

  26. All:

    Please go on supporting/recommending Alegre’s diaries on dkos; Alegre is doing a fantastic job in writing pro-hillary topics almost on a daily basis.

  27. I have faith in our girl. Her numbers will only get better in IA and elsewhere as the message gets out that she does not abandon her stated beliefs to get a vote or two like Bwak.

    I cannot wait for the next two debates on the 30th and 15th. He and JE will show their true colors then and voters will go solidly into our column.

  28. guys, i just saw on cnn’s situation room on the african-american vote in cnn’s latest national poll. it stated hillary is leading among blacks by 27 points overall. obama barely beats hillary among black men, but is leading by a HUGE margin by african-american women. i am one of those african-american men that support our girl.

  29. that’s great news terrondt!!

    One must wonder what goes through Obamas mind seeing those numbers. He can’t even win/hold on to ‘his’ voters…. oh well, that’s too bad isn’t it?!! haha

  30. The information on African-American Hillary support:

    http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/

    Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama.

    That’s up from 53 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Obama in a poll carried out in April.

    Among white registered Democrats, Clinton drew 49 percent support, versus 18 percent for Obama and 17 percent for former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the latest poll found.

    The former first lady’s strongest support among blacks came from black women, 68 percent of whom identified her as their likely choice, versus 25 percent who cited Obama, the senator from Illinois who is African-American.

    Black men who are registered Democrats were nearly evenly split, with 42 percent favoring Clinton and 46 percent favoring Obama. The sampling error of that question was plus-or-minus 8 percentage points.


    Black registered Democrats also appeared more sure of themselves than did whites, with two-thirds (67 percent) of blacks saying they would definitely support whichever candidate they had said they favored, versus one-third (33 percent) who said they might change their minds.

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