Lots of misinformation about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of missed information about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of disinformation about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of Hillary Clinton Iowa – NEWS.
Here is the Hillary In Iowa schedule of events for this weekend (details for each event at link):
The latest polls from Iowa show Hillary winning. National polls and most other state polls show Hillary winning by a great deal. Only in Iowa is Hillary winning but not by huge numbers.
In order to keep attention focused on Iowa politics and thereby their own importance, Iowa media and politicians typically try to drum up interest by making dramatic claims and pumping up the underdogs. Iowa Big Media gets time on national television shows every 4 years so they do not want clear-cut winners who deprive them of the quadrennial spotlight.
There is also lots of advertising money to be made by Iowa media when the contest is perceived to be close or exciting. There is also lots of money to be made in presidential candidate contributions and salaries to Iowa politicians and consultants when the contests are perceived to be close and exciting.
We typically discount famous Iowa media talking heads when they make dramatic claims of an exciting horse race. The bottom line in Iowa is that winning is all about organization -hardly an exciting topic.
MSNBC headlined a story called Obama Woos Iowa But Clinton Surges which appears credible because it is congruent with the latest polling data.
Standing with his sleeves rolled up in an inch-deep covering of sawdust in a cavernous show-barn in deepest rural Iowa, Barack Obama seems curiously at home.
“It is good to be in Washington,” he tells the gathering of 250 enraptured local supporters. “Washington Iowa, that is, not Washington DC. It is not always good to be in Washington DC.”
Well might he say so. The cognoscenti in America’s capital have all but crowned Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee. Having so far run what is repeatedly described as a “flawless” campaign, Mrs Clinton further impressed the pundits this week when she outraised Mr Obama by $27m to $20m (€14m, £10m) in the third quarter – the first time she has beaten her closest competitor in the “money primary”.
The following day a Washington Post-ABC opinion poll showed Mrs Clinton’s opinion poll lead over Mr Obama widening sharply. Mrs Clinton has the support of 53 per cent of Democrats nationally, compared with 20 per cent for Mr Obama and 13 per cent for John Edwards.
Mrs Clinton is also seen by large margins as the Democrat most likely to beat any Republican nominee to the White House. Even worse for her rivals, the former first lady was rated as the most trusted candidate to handle the withdrawal from Iraq. If the poll is right, Mrs Clinton has neutralised her two most abiding weaknesses among Democratic caucus and primary voters – her perceived unelectability and her controversial decision to vote in favour of the Iraq war.
The MSNBC story ignores the latest polling information, which shows Hillary in the lead, and like most Big Media prefers to showcase the poll which had Obama barely in the lead:
Mr Obama recently moved into a narrow lead over Mrs Clinton (28 per cent to 26 per cent) among Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses.
The MSNBC story took note of Obama’s Reagan Ripublican style attacks on Washington and his latest dubious slogan:
Mr Obama’s increasingly pointed attacks on Washington’s “conventional wisdom” go down well with Iowa’s phlegmatic rural voters, as well as doubling as attacks on Mrs Clinton’s Washington insider status. “It’s much easier for you to vote for someone who knows how to work the system even if the system hasn’t been working for you,” he says.
Mr Obama’s message strikes a chord in Washington, Iowa, just as it did earlier in the day on the campus of the University of Iowa where hundreds of students crowded into a lecture hall to hear him speak.
Chanting Mr Obama’s new campaign slogan – “Fired up. Ready to go” – the senator from Illinois has captured, although not yet bottled, much of the college-going population.
Little doubt students love the new slogan — it sounds similar to a pizza delivery service slogan. Be that as it may, MSNBC takes note of the Hillary Team’s strengths:
Yet it is hard to dismiss the growing optimism of the Clinton campaign, which appears increasingly to be calibrating its message for the general election that follows the primaries. It is hard, too, to ignore Mr Obama’s occasional weaknesses on the campaign trail against the weather-beaten experience of Mrs Clinton.
At times electrifying, Mr Obama sometimes becomes subdued to the point of soporific. A rousing speech at one stop is often followed by a damp squib at the next. Mr Obama was greeted with a standing ovation in the packed lecture hall at Iowa university. Forty minutes and several fairly unimpressive rhetorical perorations later, he received a polite seated ovation.
His performance in the televised presidential debates has been almost universally derided as ineffectual – particularly when compared with the polished and efficient interventions of Mrs Clinton and Mr Edwards. “Campaigning is a soul-destroying business,” says an unaffiliated Democratic consultant. “You get the impression Obama has not yet learned how to minimise the downs and maximise the ups.”
The right wing press (DrudgeReport) is trumpeting the news that the New York Times is planning another of their Hillary Hit jobs. We would not be surprised. Here is Patrick Healy’s latest hit piece and incompetent journalism:
No one is a louder, zestier cheerleader for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential prospects than her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, a man who is not known for having a light touch.
Some Democrats get a kick out of Terry’s rah-rah roadshow for Hillary, which he has performed for voters in Iowa and other states in recent months. And some Democrats are decidedly turned off by his exuberance and confidence, especially those who aren’t too keen on Mrs. Clinton themselves.
Indeed, Mr. McAuliffe seriously alienated two Iowa Democrats during a drop-by at the Glenn Restaurant in Manchester, Iowa, on Wednesday. One of the Democrats, though, is a county precinct captain for Barack Obama, and another one is leaning pretty seriously toward Mr. Obama — and neither like Mrs. Clinton.
Their lack of neutrality aside, their description of some of Mr. McAuliffe’s remarks was intriguing. According to the two women — Pam Vislisel and Emma Edgington — Mr. McAuliffe argued:
Mrs. Clinton had the Democratic nomination almost sewn up;
If the election were held now, Mrs. Clinton would win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and enough other states to win more than 350 Electoral College votes;
Mrs. Clinton was virtually moving to Iowa during the next three months to work her tail off to win the state’s first-in-the-nation nominating caucuses in January;
The Democratic nomination fight would be over after the Super-Duper Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5.
Neither woman could produce a recording of Mr. McAuliffe, nor were his remarks apparently covered by the local media. The women said in interviews that they found Mr. McAuliffe to be arrogant and boastful.
“I’m just getting a little tired of hearing — and I hear it on the news, too — that the election is in the bag, she’s going to win, she’s the only one, it’s over,” said Ms. Vislisel, the Obama precinct captain, who said she attended the McAuliffe event because she was curious about the Clinton campaign.
“I don’t think he should be coming into Iowa and talking about she’s going to win all these states,” added Ms. Edgington, who is torn between Mr. Obama and former Senator John Edwards. “It just seemed arrogant.”
Patrick Healy, trashes Hillary using alleged quotes from Terry McAuliffe – and the quotes and entire story are built around what two Obama supporters say Terry said after the two Obama supporters went, out of curiosity to a meeting for a candidate they do not intend to support.
This is New York Times trash. In what way could two Obama supporters, one a county precinct captain for Obama, be alienated from Hillary? They are not Hillary supporters, Patrick, they were alienated already and all you did was help them throw trash. To top it off the big hitman Healy scoop is that Terry was “boastful” and “arrogant” – a real crime in a campaign apparently is when a Hillary supporter “boasts” because that is “arrogant”.
Patrick Healy is a trash distributor not a journalist. Here is an opposing earlier story from The Ames Tribune about Terry McAuliffe dampening expectations (not as Healy writes declaring an Iowa victory) on his Iowa tour called Adviser Says Clinton May Be Trailing Edwards:
Polls might show Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in national polls, but one of Clinton’s top advisers believes she is trailing John Edwards in Iowa.
“I don’t think we’re winning it,” McAuliffe said during a phone interview on the campaign trail in Iowa. “I know that three, four, five polls have us leading. I don’t believe it. I think we’re bunched up there. I think we’re in second. I think Edwards is still out front, but I think we’re moving. And every day, things get better for us.”
On the conventional wisdom that Clinton is too polarizing to win, McAuliffe says once people get to know her, they like her.
“They’ve thrown the kitchen sink at this woman,” McAuliffe said. “Now she is telling her side of the story and presenting her side, and she’s getting to tell people exactly who she is, and they’re liking what they’re seeing.”
He’s optimistic about the national polls and other state-by-state polls that show her ahead.
“I think more than anything else, people have watched Hillary Clinton in those debates, and they realize that Hillary Clinton could be president of the United States of America tomorrow,” McAuliffe said.
Here we have an interview with Terry McAuliffe in which, like most smart campaigns, he does his best to dampen expectations. Terry McAuliffe in the interview states he is optimistic about national polls and other state by state polls and brags realistically about Hillary. Yet, hitman Healy quotes Obama supporters to persuade unfortunate New York Times readers that Terry McAuliffe, the man who is dampening expectation instead is declaring a Hillary Iowa victory right now and that McAuliffe is also committing what to Healy and irked Obama supporter’s are the political crimes of being “boastful” and “arrogant”.
What is going on in Iowa? Who knows? The latest story, (Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times, not trash hitman healy), again mostly rumors, is that the caucuses might be held on January 3, or is it January 5?
The Republican Party of Iowa’s state central committee has just concluded a telephone conference call tonight, recommending to hold its contest three days into the New Year, which would be a Thursday evening. For now, it remains only a recommendation, but it creates an interesting scenario, considering many Democrats in the state were leaning toward Jan. 5, a Saturday.
It would not be unprecedented for Republicans and Democrats to select their candidates on separate nights, although party officials believe holding the event on the same day increases the exposure – and significance – of the caucuses.
“We prefer January 3rd,” said Chuck Laudner, the Republican Party’s executive director. “In our history, we have gone on separate days. We were going to go on the same day, but the time has come to make these decisions, so we’re discussing the pros and cons of doing it.”
He added: “We’re united in keeping Iowa first.”
With three months left to go before the first votes are cast, the entire nominating calendar remains a question mark. Look for more clarity – at least from Iowa – in the coming days.
But a bigger uncertainty, perhaps, rests with New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, who has yet to set the date of the Granite State primary. Stay tuned.
Our bet is that although to the Hillary campaign Iowa is not necessary for nomination, Hillary will win the Iowa caucuses. We believe she will win because she is doing what she should be doing right now, which is build the organization, first and foremost, and talk to Iowa voters.
Building a strong campaign organization is fundamental to success. Candidate visits are an important part of the equation, but having a staff that can translate the energy and interest generated by the candidate into actual Iowans willing to head out on a cold Monday evening in January to spend a couple of hours in a caucus meeting is essential. Iowa has a population of about three million. There are close to 2,000 precincts (in the 2004 Democratic caucuses there were 1,993 precincts although some of these shared locations). When all was said and done on January 19, 2004 just 124,331 people participated in the Democratic caucuses.
Iowa has a very complicated caucus system. Nothing is settled yet. Participants in the caucuses will select delegates to send to a county convention to select the delegates to send to District convention to send delegates to the State convention to select delegates to send to the National Democratic convention. All sorts of deal can and will be made along the way. Both Obama and Hillary would rather Edwards win (because he has no money and his campaign was sunk almost from the get go) than their big opponent at the lowest level. A good organization can move participants to/from candidates with less than a 15% threshhold as needed to survive and dilute the voting strength of the opponent. It’s a complicated process.
Caucauses are a deeply insider, organization heavy, endeavor. The best team wins.
Hillary has built the best team nationally and is building the best team in Iowa. We have full confidence in the decisions Hillary and her team make and it is of no point to second guess them or read pigeon entrails to try to divine all the moves in this complicated three-dimensional chess game with such important consequences. We trust the Hillary Team because they have proven themselves worthy of that trust.
To paraphrase Michael Whouley: Hillary can win Iowa; Hillary will win Iowa.