Hillary Clinton in IOWA

Lots of misinformation about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of missed information about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of disinformation about Hillary Clinton in Iowa; Lots of Hillary Clinton Iowa – NEWS.

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Here is the Hillary In Iowa schedule of events for this weekend (details for each event at link):

Hillary Clinton In Iowa

10/7: New Hampton Event with Hillary

10/7: Anamosa Event with Hillary

10/7: Maquoketa Event with Hillary

Middle Class Express Bus Tour
10/8: Speech in Cedar Rapids
10/8: Marshalltown Event with Hillary
10/8: Boone Event with Hillary
10/8: Ames Rally with Hillary
10/9: Webster City Event with Hillary
10/9: Dakota City Event with Hillary
As the latest tour this weekend demonstrates, Hillary is not giving up on winning Iowa nor is Hillary taking Iowa for granted.Who is winning in Iowa?

The latest polls from Iowa show Hillary winning. National polls and most other state polls show Hillary winning by a great deal. Only in Iowa is Hillary winning but not by huge numbers.

In order to keep attention focused on Iowa politics and thereby their own importance, Iowa media and politicians typically try to drum up interest by making dramatic claims and pumping up the underdogs. Iowa Big Media gets time on national television shows every 4 years so they do not want clear-cut winners who deprive them of the quadrennial spotlight. 

There is also lots of advertising money to be made by Iowa media when the contest is perceived to be close or exciting.  There is also lots of money to be made in presidential candidate contributions and salaries to Iowa politicians and consultants when the contests are perceived to be close and exciting. 

We typically discount famous Iowa media talking heads when they make dramatic claims of an exciting horse race. The bottom line in Iowa is that winning is all about organization -hardly an exciting topic.

Latest Iowa polls

MSNBC headlined a story called Obama Woos Iowa But Clinton Surges which appears credible because it is congruent with the latest polling data.

Standing with his sleeves rolled up in an inch-deep covering of sawdust in a cavernous show-barn in deepest rural Iowa, Barack Obama seems curiously at home.

“It is good to be in Washington,” he tells the gathering of 250 enraptured local supporters. “Washington Iowa, that is, not Washington DC. It is not always good to be in Washington DC.”

Well might he say so. The cognoscenti in America’s capital have all but crowned Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee. Having so far run what is repeatedly described as a “flawless” campaign, Mrs Clinton further impressed the pundits this week when she outraised Mr Obama by $27m to $20m (€14m, £10m) in the third quarter – the first time she has beaten her closest competitor in the “money primary”.

The following day a Washington Post-ABC opinion poll showed Mrs Clinton’s opinion poll lead over Mr Obama widening sharply. Mrs Clinton has the support of 53 per cent of Democrats nationally, compared with 20 per cent for Mr Obama and 13 per cent for John Edwards.

Mrs Clinton is also seen by large margins as the Democrat most likely to beat any Republican nominee to the White House. Even worse for her rivals, the former first lady was rated as the most trusted candidate to handle the withdrawal from Iraq. If the poll is right, Mrs Clinton has neutralised her two most abiding weaknesses among Democratic caucus and primary voters – her perceived unelectability and her controversial decision to vote in favour of the Iraq war.

The MSNBC story ignores the latest polling information, which shows Hillary in the lead, and like most Big Media prefers to showcase the poll which had Obama barely in the lead:

Mr Obama recently moved into a narrow lead over Mrs Clinton (28 per cent to 26 per cent) among Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses.

The MSNBC story took note of Obama’s Reagan Ripublican style attacks on Washington and his latest dubious slogan:

Mr Obama’s increasingly pointed attacks on Washington’s “conventional wisdom” go down well with Iowa’s phlegmatic rural voters, as well as doubling as attacks on Mrs Clinton’s Washington insider status. “It’s much easier for you to vote for someone who knows how to work the system even if the system hasn’t been working for you,” he says.

Mr Obama’s message strikes a chord in Washington, Iowa, just as it did earlier in the day on the campus of the University of Iowa where hundreds of students crowded into a lecture hall to hear him speak.

Chanting Mr Obama’s new campaign slogan – “Fired up. Ready to go” – the senator from Illinois has captured, although not yet bottled, much of the college-going population.

Little doubt students love the new slogan — it sounds similar to a pizza delivery service slogan. Be that as it may, MSNBC takes note of the Hillary Team’s strengths:

Yet it is hard to dismiss the growing optimism of the Clinton campaign, which appears increasingly to be calibrating its message for the general election that follows the primaries. It is hard, too, to ignore Mr Obama’s occasional weaknesses on the campaign trail against the weather-beaten experience of Mrs Clinton.

At times electrifying, Mr Obama sometimes becomes subdued to the point of soporific. A rousing speech at one stop is often followed by a damp squib at the next. Mr Obama was greeted with a standing ovation in the packed lecture hall at Iowa university. Forty minutes and several fairly unimpressive rhetorical perorations later, he received a polite seated ovation.

His performance in the televised presidential debates has been almost universally derided as ineffectual – particularly when compared with the polished and efficient interventions of Mrs Clinton and Mr Edwards. “Campaigning is a soul-destroying business,” says an unaffiliated Democratic consultant. “You get the impression Obama has not yet learned how to minimise the downs and maximise the ups.”

The right wing press (DrudgeReport) is trumpeting the news that the New York Times is planning another of their Hillary Hit jobs. We would not be surprised. Here is Patrick Healy’s latest hit piece and incompetent journalism:

No one is a louder, zestier cheerleader for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential prospects than her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, a man who is not known for having a light touch.

Some Democrats get a kick out of Terry’s rah-rah roadshow for Hillary, which he has performed for voters in Iowa and other states in recent months. And some Democrats are decidedly turned off by his exuberance and confidence, especially those who aren’t too keen on Mrs. Clinton themselves.

Indeed, Mr. McAuliffe seriously alienated two Iowa Democrats during a drop-by at the Glenn Restaurant in Manchester, Iowa, on Wednesday. One of the Democrats, though, is a county precinct captain for Barack Obama, and another one is leaning pretty seriously toward Mr. Obama — and neither like Mrs. Clinton.

Their lack of neutrality aside, their description of some of Mr. McAuliffe’s remarks was intriguing. According to the two women — Pam Vislisel and Emma Edgington — Mr. McAuliffe argued:

Mrs. Clinton had the Democratic nomination almost sewn up;

If the election were held now, Mrs. Clinton would win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and enough other states to win more than 350 Electoral College votes;

Mrs. Clinton was virtually moving to Iowa during the next three months to work her tail off to win the state’s first-in-the-nation nominating caucuses in January;

The Democratic nomination fight would be over after the Super-Duper Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5.

Neither woman could produce a recording of Mr. McAuliffe, nor were his remarks apparently covered by the local media. The women said in interviews that they found Mr. McAuliffe to be arrogant and boastful.

“I’m just getting a little tired of hearing — and I hear it on the news, too — that the election is in the bag, she’s going to win, she’s the only one, it’s over,” said Ms. Vislisel, the Obama precinct captain, who said she attended the McAuliffe event because she was curious about the Clinton campaign.

“I don’t think he should be coming into Iowa and talking about she’s going to win all these states,” added Ms. Edgington, who is torn between Mr. Obama and former Senator John Edwards. “It just seemed arrogant.”

Patrick Healy, trashes Hillary using alleged quotes from Terry McAuliffe – and the quotes and entire story are built around what two Obama supporters say Terry said  after the two Obama supporters went, out of curiosity to a meeting for a candidate they do not intend to support.

This is New York Times trash. In what way could two Obama supporters, one a county precinct captain for Obama, be alienated from Hillary? They are not Hillary supporters, Patrick, they were alienated already and all you did was help them throw trash. To top it off the big hitman Healy scoop is that Terry was “boastful” and “arrogant” – a real crime in a campaign apparently is when a Hillary supporter “boasts” because that is “arrogant”.

Patrick Healy is a trash distributor not a journalist. Here is an opposing earlier story from The Ames Tribune about Terry McAuliffe dampening expectations (not as Healy writes declaring an Iowa victory) on his Iowa tour called Adviser Says Clinton May Be Trailing Edwards:

Polls might show Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in national polls, but one of Clinton’s top advisers believes she is trailing John Edwards in Iowa.

I don’t think we’re winning it,” McAuliffe said during a phone interview on the campaign trail in Iowa. “I know that three, four, five polls have us leading. I don’t believe it. I think we’re bunched up there. I think we’re in second. I think Edwards is still out front, but I think we’re moving. And every day, things get better for us.”

On the conventional wisdom that Clinton is too polarizing to win, McAuliffe says once people get to know her, they like her.

“They’ve thrown the kitchen sink at this woman,” McAuliffe said. “Now she is telling her side of the story and presenting her side, and she’s getting to tell people exactly who she is, and they’re liking what they’re seeing.”

He’s optimistic about the national polls and other state-by-state polls that show her ahead.

“I think more than anything else, people have watched Hillary Clinton in those debates, and they realize that Hillary Clinton could be president of the United States of America tomorrow,” McAuliffe said.

Here we have an interview with Terry McAuliffe in which, like most smart campaigns, he does his best to dampen expectations. Terry McAuliffe in the interview states he is optimistic about national polls and other state by state polls and brags realistically about Hillary. Yet, hitman Healy quotes Obama supporters to persuade unfortunate New York Times readers that Terry McAuliffe, the man who is dampening expectation instead is declaring a Hillary Iowa victory right now and that McAuliffe is also committing what to Healy and irked Obama supporter’s are the political crimes of being “boastful” and “arrogant”. 

What is going on in Iowa? Who knows? The latest story, (Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times, not trash hitman healy), again mostly rumors, is that the caucuses might be held on January 3, or is it January 5?

The Republican Party of Iowa’s state central committee has just concluded a telephone conference call tonight, recommending to hold its contest three days into the New Year, which would be a Thursday evening. For now, it remains only a recommendation, but it creates an interesting scenario, considering many Democrats in the state were leaning toward Jan. 5, a Saturday.

It would not be unprecedented for Republicans and Democrats to select their candidates on separate nights, although party officials believe holding the event on the same day increases the exposure – and significance – of the caucuses.

“We prefer January 3rd,” said Chuck Laudner, the Republican Party’s executive director. “In our history, we have gone on separate days. We were going to go on the same day, but the time has come to make these decisions, so we’re discussing the pros and cons of doing it.”

He added: “We’re united in keeping Iowa first.”

With three months left to go before the first votes are cast, the entire nominating calendar remains a question mark. Look for more clarity – at least from Iowa – in the coming days.

But a bigger uncertainty, perhaps, rests with New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, who has yet to set the date of the Granite State primary. Stay tuned.

Our bet is that although to the Hillary campaign Iowa is not necessary for nomination, Hillary will win the Iowa caucuses. We believe she will win because she is doing what she should be doing right now, which is build the organization, first and foremost, and talk to Iowa voters

Building a strong campaign organization is fundamental to success. Candidate visits are an important part of the equation, but having a staff that can translate the energy and interest generated by the candidate into actual Iowans willing to head out on a cold Monday evening in January to spend a couple of hours in a caucus meeting is essential. Iowa has a population of about three million. There are close to 2,000 precincts (in the 2004 Democratic caucuses there were 1,993 precincts although some of these shared locations). When all was said and done on January 19, 2004 just 124,331 people participated in the Democratic caucuses.

Iowa has a very complicated caucus system. Nothing is settled yet. Participants in the caucuses will select delegates to send to a county convention to select the delegates to send to District convention to send delegates to the State convention to select delegates to send to the National Democratic convention. All sorts of deal can and will be made along the way. Both Obama and Hillary would rather Edwards win (because he has no money and his campaign was sunk almost from the get go) than their big opponent at the lowest level. A good organization can move participants to/from candidates with less than a 15% threshhold as needed to survive and dilute the voting strength of the opponent. It’s a complicated process.

Caucauses are a deeply insider, organization heavy, endeavor. The best team wins.

Hillary has built the best team nationally and is building the best team in Iowa. We have full confidence in the decisions Hillary and her team make and it is of no point to second guess them or read pigeon entrails to try to divine all the moves in this complicated three-dimensional chess game with such important consequences. We trust the Hillary Team because they have proven themselves worthy of that trust.

To paraphrase Michael Whouley: Hillary can win Iowa; Hillary will win Iowa.

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52 thoughts on “Hillary Clinton in IOWA

  1. Update: The much discussed NYTimes story turns out to be nothing. Just Obama saying “It’s not over”.
    —————-

    Terrondt, the Hillary campaign has less offices in Iowa than Obama. This does not concern us. If the contest was about real estate Hillary has sufficient resources to have an office in every building in Iowa.

    That’s what we mean about trusting the intelligence of the organization. Obama’s team is trying to “psych people out” with this useless metric. The Hillary Team understands that what is important is the overall strategy. When the time comes, if it is needed, more offices will be opened, or there will be more hires, or more pizza will be ordered, whatever.

    Right now, orgaization is the key.

  2. Admin – Thanks for a great piece on Iowa. I have been really confused about what’s really happening there. The reports and pundits have been all over the map here, and haven’t been able to make heads nor tails out of it. This makes sense to me now, and I know Hillary can do it if anyone can. She is winning this in large part by working for every vote and by having the best organization and campaign. She can certainly outwork any of the other candidates. Go Hillary!!!!

  3. Whats happening in Iowa?

    The usual… netrooters as precinct captains shocked and awed Hillary has the Audacity to campaign in Iowa. Obama has planted his flag in Demoines and like Bush, has staked out his territory and declared ownership of Iowa.

    Mrs. S.

  4. I think this must be a NEW poll from Ipsos, showing a huge increase for Hillary…

    ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jiFcf1QZ73uMtqMogJ51KGf3nriQD8S3R3V80

    Analysis: Clinton Extending Lead

    By BETH FOUHY – 1 hour ago

    NEW YORK (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton has strengthened her position as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. But her strong showing nationally belies a much closer race in Iowa, where she is in a tight three-way contest with Barack Obama and John Edwards.

    A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton ahead of Obama, her closest rival, by more than 20 points — 46 percent to 25 percent.

    The rest of the field is in single digits: Edwards, a former North Carolina senator pulled in 9 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden each had 2 percent and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd 1 percent.

    Only Clinton and Obama have the deep financial resources to compete in the early contests and in the crush of big states holding primaries Feb. 5.

    The rest of the candidates are redoubling their efforts in Iowa, hoping a good showing there will give them a “bounce” into the later states. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14; they are all but certain to move up.

    A closer look at the AP-Ipsos poll:

    ___

    CLINTON: The New York senator draws support from women, blacks and voters without a college degree. She has neutralized what was expected to be a major liability — her vote in favor of the Iraq war. She no longer is heckled on the campaign trail for that vote and has managed to persuade many anti-war Democrats that she would move quickly to end the conflict as president.

    Clinton has worked hard to convince voters that she is not the brittle, calculating figure she long has been portrayed. While she does not have the intuitive campaign skills of her husband, voters say she has impressed them with her warmth, ready smile and willingness to spend hours taking questions, chatting and shaking hands. A bona fide celebrity, Clinton never tires of posing for cell-phone photos with starry-eyed fans.

    She still has obstacles to surmount before winning her party’s nomination. She must convince skeptical Democrats eager to reclaim the White House that she can win a general election. She must walk a fine line between embracing her husband’s legacy and projecting independence and an ability to bring change to Washington.

    Most important, she must win or come in a close second in Iowa; otherwise, her sense of inevitability will vanish.

    ___

    OBAMA: Despite his charisma, crowd appeal and early opposition to the Iraq war, the Illinois senator’s support has remained essentially flat for months and has begun to drop in some key areas.

    He is popular among upscale, educated voters, but the poll indicates Clinton still holds a 12-point lead in that group. While he hopes to be the first black president, and his strategy relies in part on blacks coming out for him, his support among black voters has dropped by 5 percentage points since the last survey.

    Obama still has strengths to draw on as the race enters its final stretch. He has significant financial resources to invest heavily in the early states. His message of hope and change resonates among voters eager to move on from the hyper-partisan Bush and Clinton years. His strong field operation in Iowa makes him highly competitive there.

    But the freshman senator has liabilities, especially the lingering concern among many voters that he lacks the experience necessary to govern in a dangerous world. He can be somewhat remote and chilly as a campaigner, making an intellectual connection with voters rather than an emotional one. He has been known to cut off voters when their questions go on too long and can appear weary of the endless glad-handing and other rituals of retail politics.

    ___

    EDWARDS: While his national numbers show him badly trailing Clinton and Obama, Edwards remains strong in Iowa and is counting on a good showing there to fuel momentum in other states.

    The multimillionaire lawyer has adopted a tough, populist tone, pledging to fight poverty and challenging members of Congress to refuse health insurance until they pass a law to bring coverage to everyone. He has railed against lobbyists and other Beltway power brokers, and has gone further than other candidates in depicting Clinton as a charter member of the Washington establishment.

    Edwards has deployed his popular wife, Elizabeth, to take on Clinton more directly than he can. Among other things, Elizabeth Edwards has said Clinton is too polarizing to be elected and would not be a strong champion for women in the White House.

    But Edwards faces formidable challenges. He has had to compete with Obama to position himself as the strongest “anti-Clinton” candidate in the field; that is a difficult task given Obama’s celebrity and record fundraising success. Edwards’ own fundraising has lagged, and he recently announced he would accept federal matching funds, which will limit what he can spend in each state. He has little campaign infrastructure outside Iowa and his candidacy probably cannot survive a defeat there.

    ___

    THE REST:

    The other Democratic contenders have struggled in a race so dominated by the top tier. Richardson has built a relatively strong organization in Iowa and is counting on his long resume in Washington and as a Western state governor to win over voters. Biden and Dodd have recently directed their limited campaign resources almost entirely to Iowa, where they are hoping for one of the front-runners to slip and allow an opening.

    EDITOR’S NOTE _ Beth Fouhy covers presidential politics for The Associated Press.

  5. staff to kitforhill,

    we did not delve too much on how very complicated Iowa is and the varied impacts of the proportional voting system. On caucus night having supporters show up is important but not all important. For instance, Howard Dean had more supporters show up on caucus night, but he still lost the caucus vote. Having more supporters show up and still lose is not an unusual phenomena in Iowa.

    That’s because due to the way the caucus system works you are rewarded for having support spread out throughout the state. Also a campaign needs 15% support in every venue on caucus night otherwise their supporters must vote for someone else in the next round, but in subsequent rounds if they pick up 15% the candidate can be resurrected.

    The best situation for a candidate is having an organization that can mobilize supporters throughout Iowa and an organization able to communicate swiftly and independently on caucus night to move numbers around to gauge and minimize the amount of votes the opposition threat gets and at the same time harvest as many second choice voters as possible.

    That’s why having a smart and smooth operating organization that knows what to do when the inevitable problems arise (snow, rain, illness, opposition alliances, etc.) on caucus night itself is much more important that big rah-rah rallies.

    Rallies have a purpose for networking and channeling voters, and even for testing out the organization. Rah-rah rallies are a waste of time though. Hillary has a very efficient voter intake and contact operation at her rallies. Obama only recently (as noted by Roger Simon) has started to bother with the dull but all important of asking early and well (not as well as Hillary has been doing) for supporters to fill out contact cards and help on caucus night.

  6. Mrs Smith, as soon as it gets cold, the Obama Orange hats will appear and the nutroots will cheer.

    BTW, that new Obama slogan is a giggle fest.

  7. Obama calls for arugula subsidies in Iowa:

    http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2007/10/obama_talks_arugula_again_in_i.html

    ——————————–

    Obama talks arugula – again – in Iowa
    by John McCormick

    INDEPENDENCE, Iowa — After addressing a question over his decision years ago to stop wearing an American flag pin on his suit lapel, Sen. Barack Obama revisited the topic of arugula during a campaign stop here Thursday.

    His first mention of the leafy green came during the summer as part of his first high-profile visit to an Iowa farm. Then, he posed the following question:

    “Anybody gone into Whole Foods lately and see what they charge for arugula?” he asked. “I mean, they’re charging a lot of money for this stuff.”

    That comment came despite the fact that Iowa does not have any Whole Foods stores, nor do most of its farmers typically grow any arugula.

    The point the Illinois Democrat and presidential candidate was trying to make then, he said Thursday, was that farm subsidies should not just go to traditional commodities like corn and cotton.

    “Eating habits are changing,” he said.

    Then, he explained that he had been “teased” for previously mentioning arugula.

    “All the national press, they said, ‘Oh, look at Obama. He’s talking about arugula in Iowa. People in Iowa don’t know what arugula is,'” he said. “People in Iowa know what arugula is. They may not eat it, but you know what it is.”

    Well, maybe.

    A highly unscientific survey of three Iowans who listened to Obama’s speech suggested at least some in the crowd were a little confused by the leafy green.

    “I’ve heard of it, but I don’t know what it is,” said Richard Newton, a laborer and volunteer firefighter from Independence. “But I understood what he was talking about.”

    Kay Hoffman, a hospital clinic assistant from nearby Aurora, Iowa, said she had never heard of it before, suspecting it might have something to do with Obama’s Hawaiian upbringing.

    “I don’t know what it is,” she said. “Maybe it’s a Hawaiian thing.”

    James Sink, a retired manufacturing worker from Cedar Falls, Iowa, said he had no clue. “I had no idea what it is,” he said.

    Obama also mentioned almonds as a growing cash crop. Those come from inside candy bars, right?

  8. My wife and I will be attending Hillary’s 60th birthday bash at The Beacon Theater in NYC on the 25th of October. Governors Spitzer, Corzine (of NJ) Sen. Schumer and a slew of other poloticos will be there to celebrate with Hillary and Bill. It should be a blast!
    If you live in the area, you should try to get a ticket today, as I am sure they are going to sell out FAST!
    Hope to see some of you there.

  9. That is a new IPSOS poll. It was in the field Oct 1-3. The one released earlier in the week with a big oversample of black voters was in the field Sept 21-25.

    IPSOS has posted Bush job approval ratings from the new poll on their website, but not the data from the primary polling.

  10. Admin,

    Wow, Great news from Iowa. DesMoinesRegister released a new poll. Clinton overtook Edwards for the first time!!! Wow!!!!

    MO!!!!
    Hillary Clinton has climbed into first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans expected to participate in the state抯 Democratic presidential caucuses, with John Edwards and Barack Obama both in striking distance.

    The Iowa Poll shows 29 percent of likely caucusgoers preferring Clinton, a New York senator, an improvement from the Register抯 most recent poll in May.

    Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was the choice of 23 percent in the new poll, slipping from the top spot since the May survey to nearly even with Obama.

    Obama, an Illinois senator, was at 22 percent , virtually unchanged from May.

    Clinton抯 gain comes after a summer of campaigning in Iowa that included two trips with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and major policy speeches about Iraq and health care.

    The new poll also shows Clinton picking up support while Edwards and Obama have sharpened their criticism of her.

    The poll shows all other candidates falling farther behind the top three, despite regular Iowa campaigning by several of the others.

    New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was in fourth place as the choice of 8 percent, down slightly from May. Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was in fifth with 5 percent, up slightly. All others had support from 1 percent or less.

    The telephone survey of 399 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 1-3, roughly three months before the Iowa caucuses are expected to begin the series of state nominating contests.

    The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

    Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Eleven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support.

    The poll抯 findings are in line with Iowa polls in the past month which have shown Clinton overtaking Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses and had led in Iowa polls earlier this year.

    Clinton trailed Edwards by 8 percentage points and was neck-and-neck with Obama in the Register抯 May poll.

    Since then, she has expanded her campaign organization and joined her opponents in advertising on television in Iowa.

    The race in Iowa remains fluid, but preferences have become firmer since May, with 53 percent of respondents saying they could be convinced to support someone else, down from 69 percent in May.

    Among the roughly one-third of caucusgoers who say their minds are made up, Clinton is favored by 48 percent.

    Clinton抯 reputation as a polarizing figure was cited as a factor by 63 percent of caucusgoers supporting a Democrat other than the New York senator.

    Clinton抯 edge among those firmly decided and her vulnerability as someone who engenders strong opinions illustrate the idea that there is little ambiguity about caucusgoers?feelings about her.

    揝he抯 a very pleasant person and I strongly believe in her point of view,?Des Moines homemaker Tonya Battin said. The 36-year-old independent plans to support Clinton in the caucuses.

    Cedar Falls Democrat Jane Thomas said she could never support Clinton. 揑 think all she has on her mind is power,?said Thomas, an 80-year-old retired home health aide.

    Clinton was viewed in the new poll as the strongest candidate on more key traits than her opponents, even as they have stepped up their critique of her.

    Those traits include leadership, experience, toughness, intelligence and electability.

    Clinton also was the preferred Democrat among caucusgoers 55 years and older, the most dependable age group for showing up to past caucuses.

    National polls have shown Clinton leading since she announced her candidacy in January, with Obama a distant second followed by Edwards.

    In July and August, Edwards and Obama began attacking Clinton more while campaigning in Iowa, describing her as too connected to Washington, D.C., and unwilling to challenge foreign policy convention.

    Edwards support declined by 6 percentage points since the May poll. Part of the decline was in union households, where Edwards led in May but where Clinton had the lead in the new poll.

    Edwards continued to lead among men in the new poll. Edwards, who has worked for two years to raise awareness of poverty, was tied with Clinton for support from those representing the lowest income group.

    Of those supporting a candidate other than Edwards, 50 percent pointed to the former senator抯 wealthy lifestyle undermining his credibility in speaking out against poverty.

    Edwards?past consulting work for a private equity company, whose subprime mortgage divisions foreclosed on homeowners in New Orleans, Iowa and elsewhere, received media attention in the past six months. So did his paying hundreds of dollars apiece for haircuts and building a $5 million home in North Carolina.

    Still, Edwards and Obama were tied for the lead on the question of who had the most to offer on morality.

    揑 think he抯 very honest and I think he抯 got experience,?Thomas, the Cedar Falls retiree, said about Edwards. 揑 think he comes across as somebody that believes in his country.?br>
    Obama, who was campaigning in the state while the poll was conducted, had the highest rating on the traits of integrity, vision and charisma.

    Obama also led among political independents and caucusgoers under the age of 45, typically less reliable blocs in caucus attendance than active Democrats and older voters.

    Among those surveyed who were backing someone other than Obama, 77 percent said his relative lack of experience in national and foreign affairs was a factor. Obama is a former Illinois state legislator and law professor and is serving his first U.S. Senate term.

    Ames Democrat Alicia Carriquiry said she was supporting Obama in part because he represents a departure from the past.

    揑 think he brings a fresh view to the presidency. He strikes me as a very highly educated, highly intelligent person,?said Carriquiry, a 49-year-old Iowa State University statistics professor

  11. I just got back from the Johnson County BBQ, where George McGovern endorsed her. The scene was awesome! We dominated the sign war, and there were definitely some people swayed to Hillary tonight. A clear majority of the BBQ-goers had Hillary stickers on. And we got to meet her after the event, where she took a picture with the students from the UI. Then she took a picture with some little boys, probably around the age of 8 or 9. Hillary actually led the crowd in singing happy birthday to the little boy! It was adorable. He said, as he was walking out, “the President sang happy brithday to me!” It was amazing. She stayed for a long time after, shaking hands, signing things, unlike the others who left. Wow, what a night.

  12. Oh, btw, Obama’s crowd, which was actually for Forrest Whitaker (bc Obama skipped the event), was the size of Bill Richardson’s. This is in his “strongest county” in Iowa. Hillary’s packed the house! It was so hot in the building, but so worth it.

  13. Celiff,

    Would you mind writing a diary on myDD recounting your awesome experience at Johnson County BBQ!! This is terrific news coupled with this latest poll number!!

    If you don’t have time, you can write more thoughts here, and I can always cut and paste your stuff on myDD to give them a ‘shock and awe’!!

  14. BBQ Scene

    The Johnson County BBQ in Iowa City, Iowa was amazing. The food was great, the people were excited, and the atmosphere was energetic. As the crowds arrived, they were met with a barrage of campaign volunteers, from all of the campaigns, pushing supporter cards and stickers. The line for Hillary Clinton’s booth stretched outside the hall, down the large ramp, and into the parking lot. A vast majority of the people there wore Hillary stickers. Hillary placards and a plate of a BBQ pork sandwich with beans filled the arms of so many people. As the day went on, the candidates arrived and made their way to the main barn to give their speeches. The crowd sizes were interesting. Kucinich had a huge crowd. Edwards had a decently sized crowd as well. Those there to see Obama were presented with Forrest Whitaker, who drew a crowd slightly smaller than Bill Richardson’s. The big winner of the sign wars and the crowd size was Hillary Clinton. She was introduced by George McGovern, professing his admiration for Hillary, and proudly endorsing her. Also there was Jim McGovern, the Massachusetts congressman. She electrified the crowd with a speech on Bush’s “War on Science” and on her memories of the Space Race and what we had accomplished. She also talked about women’s rights. After her speech, which was the last, she left going into the crowd, shaking hands, taking pictures and giving autographs. When she left the barn, she took a picture with the Students For Hillary-University of Iowa Chapter, of which I am the President. She then took a picture with some young boys, probably 9 or 10 years old, where she initiated and led the crowd in singing Happy Birthday to the little boy! That was personable. The boy left, saying “the President sang Happy Birthday to me!” No other candidate would have done that. She then stayed longer with supporters greeting them. Overall, it was clear at this BBQ who is number ONE in Iowa.

  15. kostner, i was wondering for months where is the des moise register poll. i hear it is the best polling outfit in iowa. great news!!! GO HILLARY GO!!!

  16. i just checked mydd. the iowa poll was diaried and i recommended it. so far thes nutkooks have not tried to downplay the poll yet. maybe they will finnally see the reality. LUV YA HILLARY!!!!

  17. Hey y’all. Celiff, What a great story from Iowa City. Thanks for writin’ about it. Sounds like our girl is doin’ a great job. Great choice of topics for a college crowd too, the war on science. And then we have good news out of the polls as well. What a time! -mollyj

  18. As always, another round of anti-Hillary ramblings on Meet the Press. They are still analyzing the debate. The talking point of the entire panel (appeared to be all conservatives) was that Hillary is being too cautious and that will hurt her with voters. Ted Koppel actually compared her poll ratings to Howard Dean’s although one of the pundits admitted that if the current national poll numbers are indeed correct the primary is basically over. I don’t know why I keep watching this show–perhaps it’s just to see if they slip up and actually have a positive discussion about Hillary one day.

    I’m sure that some of you will have analysis of this and the other talk shows. I’m starting to really see the “media think” that’s out there and that’s been discussed on this board. They must send each other memos to pick the anti-Hillary slant for the day.

    Note: that excellent new Hillary ad is being shown here in Minnesota. It’s done so well that you just get drawn into it and want to watch. Kudos to her campaign advertisers for a great effort!

  19. smiley edwards is on mtp. russert is hard on edwards but not the ambush he done on hillary a few weeks ago.

  20. Check out this editorial from the Union Leader;

    Ditching the flag: The disdain of Obama, Couric

    10 hours, 15 minutes ago

    In a room full of Americans, how do you tell who the real patriots are? They’re the ones NOT wearing little U.S. flags pinned to their lapels.

    That’s how Sen. Barack Obama and CBS News anchor Katie Couric view the world, anyway.

    Asked on Wednesday why he didn’t wear a flag lapel pin, Obama said, “The truth is that right after 9/11 I had a pin.” But he quit wearing it because, he said, “Shortly after 9/11, particularly because as we’re talking about the Iraq war, that became a substitute for I think true patriotism, which is speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security.

    “I decided I won’t wear that pin on my chest.”

    To Obama, “speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security” is “true patriotism.” Evidently it never occurred to him that wearing the flag is a way of speaking out. And evidently he never noticed that many of those people wearing flag pins were doing so while vocally expressing their opinions on “issues that are of importance to our national security.”

    Obama’s false distinction is a dodge. He can only mean that displaying the flag is a substitute for thinking. In Obama’s world, it is simply impossible that deep thought preceded the placement of that pin on your chest. The pin itself is a sign of mindless jingoism.

    If a presidential candidate has made a stupider assertion this campaign season, we can’t think of it. But Obama is not alone. CBS News talking head Katie Couric thinks the same way.

    Speaking to the National Press Club on Sept. 26, Couric criticized the culture that prevailed in America at the start of the Iraq war.

    “The whole culture of wearing flags on our lapel and saying ‘we’ when referring to the United States and, even the ‘shock and awe’ of the initial stages, it was just too jubilant and just a little uncomfortable.”

    So Ms. Couric doesn’t like to refer to herself as a member of the United States, and she finds rooting for our side in a war “just too jubilant.” And CBS executives wonder why she’s dragged the CBS Evening News ratings down to their lowest point in history.

    Looking down their noses at Americans whose love of country inspires them to display the flag proudly and tastefully on their business suits might count for “true patriotism” in the Obama and Couric homes, but most Americans can easily see that attitude for what it really is: unabashed contempt for the culture of middle America.

    We have no doubt whatsoever that Obama and Couric both love their country. They just loathe millions of their countrymen.

  21. as for the flag pin i wear it on my uniform at work all the time. it might hurt him a bit in the general but only right leaning voters. not in the primaries. righties tend to think the flag belongs to them only. what bs. i remember having a heated exchange with a righty about it.

  22. DAVID YEPSEN’s article… He is a stupid pundit, the only thing he understands is poll… So here we are…

    Today’s Iowa Poll of likely caucusgoers will have them smiling in the camps of Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

    They’ll be frowning in the offices of Barack Obama, John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

    Iowa’s Republican and Democratic activists are starting to choose up sides, and some campaigns better start recalibrating if they hope to do well.

    Democrat Clinton has opened up a small 6-point lead over Edwards in the state, an 8-point gain since May. Her uptick here indicates she’s gaining momentum in Iowa, just as she is nationally. One reason she’s gained is that most of her debate performances have been solid, and as she is exposed to more people, she’s easing concerns about her high negatives and electability.

    Democrat Barack Obama is flat-lining here, just as he is nationally, and John Edwards is slipping, just as he’s slipped around the country. Poor showings here would be a setback for Obama and probably knock Edwards from the race. They need to derail the front-running Clinton in Iowa, not be derailed by her.

    One reason for some of this movement lies in the demographics of just who plans to go to a Democratic caucus. Among likely Democratic caucusgoers, 62 percent are women, and Clinton carries more of them – 34 percent – than any other candidate. She finishes third among male Democrats, winning only 21 percent.

    The numbers prove what you can see in her crowds, which are often filled with older, working women. There seems to be power behind the unstated message that “it’s our turn.”

    Obama is placing a big bet on attracting young people to the caucuses, despite the fact they’re notoriously poor voters and caucusgoers. Only 2 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers are under age 25, while 51 percent are over age 55. On top of that, only 23 percent of the Democrats say this will be their first caucus.

    (Memo to Obama: You may want to start showing up for those AARP forums – and save the children’s crusades for a state that isn’t so full of us aging boomers and gray woolies.)

    All candidates are spending more time in rural and small-town Iowa, and for good reason – the poll shows 49 percent of the likely Democratic attendees are from rural and small-town Iowa. Among Republicans, 54 percent say they live in those places.

  23. I was offline all day yesterday and am so excited to see the latest AP-Ipsos and Des Moines Register polls! 🙂

  24. My comment to blog heaven. I’ll reconstruct it later tonight
    if I have time. I don’t what happen, go figure. It was rather
    long.
    Kegs

  25. AmericanGal,

    As always, another round of anti-Hillary ramblings on Meet the Press.

    Yikes. The roundtable should have been called ‘Meet the Neanderthals’.

    Broder needs to be put out to pasture. I like Koppel, but he needs to stick to documentaries. Carlson is just a flat-out embarrassment. The Brody guy is WEIRD, we’re not living in a theocracy, at least not yet.

    There was too much wrong with what was said during that roundtable to list.

  26. There was the usual amount of Bush-bashing and Edwards again criticized Clinton for her recent vote on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. But the high point of the day was McGovern’s 10-minutes of remarks.

    He recalled receiving a phone call in 1972 from his campaign manager, someone named Gary Hart, saying he’d come upon a bright, young man in Arkansas named Bill Clinton who had a hardworking friend named Hillary Rodham and they both were going to work Texas for McGovern.

    “There’s nothing in politics,” said McGovern, “that requires more courage than trying to sell George McGovern in Texas.” The crowd roared. McGovern praised the entire current field of Democratic candidates and said he hoped to live long enough to see an African American president. But, he added, “We have an old rule of courtesy in the United States: ladies first.” Another crowd roar.

    And thus the Democratic candidate from 1972 returned the favor to the wannabe Democratic candidate of 2008. He endorsed her candidacy.

    Clinton’s words of appreciation were interrupted by protestors chanting, “Hands off Iran.” But she persevered. All in all, not a bad way to start a four-day swing through Iowa.

  27. Thanks, celiff..

    Loved your diary detailingthe IOWA Bar-B-Q…

    If you don’t mind, I’d like to repost your narrative elsewhere, if thats all right with you?

    I’ll wait for your response..

    Mrs. S.

  28. Hey, Folks: I’ve been AWOL. A couple of things happened. First, I had a mishap with a poster at daily kos who was running through my comments here to bring them back to daily kos and impugn my reputation over there. With admin’s knowledge, I opened a new account and posted a few comments under the new name. But I have decided I don’t like that, so I am not going to use the other account. I am DCDemocrat, and I am for Hillary. Secondly, I had a serious adverse health event and needed emergency surgery. I’ve been in the hospital for a week. I just got home today, a few minutes ago, and I am catching up on everything. Without the surgery, I would have died this week. I am alive. It’s a good thing.

  29. Your OUT OF TOUCH MSM correspondents:

    On the Chris Matthews Show, in a poll of his 12 regular guests, where they were asked “WILL HILLARY BE THE CHANGE CANDIDATE IN THE PRIMARIES ?”, 4 of them said YES Hillary is the dominate change candidate, while 8 of them said NO, that Obama is.

    Nevermind that by poll after poll of the Democrat primary voters, Hillary garners the majority when they are asked who is the change candidate.

  30. Don’t be too hard on the, “chattering class”, they’d be on unemployment if they had to spend the next 3-4 months all agreeing that Hillary had locked up the nomination this early in the game. It’s their job to, “entertain”, as much as it is to inform.
    They have to CREATE a race even if one doesn’t exist. They have to create a, “narrative” for the race that provides tension and mystery as to the outcome. One week the stories are all, “Is Clinton’s nomination inevitable?”, the next it’s, “Clinton NOT inevitable”. It’s just that there is a long way to go and less and less of a race to report on.
    Remember that the punditocracy doesn’t concern themselves with ISSUES, just the horse race and, “People Magazine” aspects of the campaign, because they are better able to fit those things into a 30 second sound-bite.

    Over the coming weeks and months leading to the first primaries, expect to see more of these stories, as the media search for something to add excitement to what has become a boring democratic contest. They will spend a lot more time (and have a lot more fun, too) handicapping the republicans, and speculating about the general election, and who will ultimately face Hillary in Nov. 2008

  31. DCDemocrat,

    So sorry to hear your condition. Good thing is that you’re getting better and in high spirits!

  32. DCDemocrat,

    You must have had a very scary time with the emergency surgery. Hopefully your health situation has stabilized and you are fully recovered. It all sounds very frightening. Welcome back, stronger than ever DCDemocrat.

    We’ve had some discussions in the comments about the increasing attacks on Big Pink recently. On ALL the major blogs the ‘free speech’ Obama and Edwards advocates are in a tizzy attacking anyone posting on the site. It’s an intimidation tactic pure and simple. It’s why they attack Hillary everytime she does well in the debates or in the polls. It’s why opponents do not like to discuss polls and poo poo polls – something they would not do if their candidates were doing well.

    Our articles and comments are hitting home in deadly accuracy. Opponents recognize how accurate we have been and so they attack the messenger. It’s also why any slight mention of Big Pink is attacked – they don’t want anyone reading the site. The attacks are meant to instill fear. Instill fear, keep away readers. It the old McCarthy tactic. (It’s why there are increasing attacks on Hillary Team members such as Mark Penn too – notice how Obama team members such as Gibbs get a free ride.)

    The attacks are a badge of honor. If we, you, were ineffective no one would care what we wrote. The fact opponents are so frenzied in their attacks is, as Hillary herself states about her own history of being attacked, a form of flattery. The day we don’t get attacked is the day we will worry we are not doing our job.

    It sounds like in your case the adage “What does not kill you makes you stronger” is accurate. You sound ready to take on the world and pick up your sword to fight for Hillary stronger than ever, unafraid of intimidation.

    As we had communicated to you, we had no objection, especially in light of the circumstances, of you posting under a different name. But bullies and intimidators are never satisfied. They need to be taken on directly. Our guiding light on this is Hillary. If she can take all the abuse and attacks all these decades and come out stronger for it, then maybe, just maybe we can take a few punches too.

    Welcome back and good health.

  33. DC, I was worried about you, it had seemed so long since you had posted. Glad to hear you are ok. Sorry for your ordeal. Take care.

  34. Definitely repost it. I don’t mind at all. The more we spread the word, the more overwhelming all of the good Hillary news seems to all the obama-ites.

  35. DCDemocrat,

    Holy cow.

    Glad to hear you made it back home safely. Having a medical emergency is bad enough, but a long stint in the hospital carries it’s own dangers these days.

  36. Does anyone know why obama missed the BBQ? Seems strange to miss it, given people were just saying about how well he was doing in Iowa.

  37. Admin and all my friends: Many thanks for the kind words. I am out of the woods but a little wan. I will post with increasing frequency as I regain my strength, and admin, I was particularly touched by the trouble you took to write your note.

  38. MJ, regarding your question as to why Obama missed the Johnson BBQ.

    We understand there was a 60% off sale on orange knit hats at the old Marshall Fields Water Tower outlet in Chicago. Also, his local Whole Foods has a great 2 for 1 sale on arugula and that bargain was too great to miss. 🙂

    Read hwc’s comment for the importance of arugula to Obama. If it wasn’t the great arugula sale, maybe Obama’s team was shopping for flag lapel pins.

  39. DCDem, remember it always takes longer for a full recovery than we like. Don’t rush things. Rest. Rest is the best therapy. Also, smile. Happiness is not only the best revenge, it is also the best medicine.

    Hint: reading Hillary polls will put a smile on you.

  40. DCDem,

    Welcome back, you’re missed!

    My heart missed a beat reading about your emergency surgery.

    Thank God you’re out of the wood. As admin said, please do rest well. I hope you’ll recover fully soon.

    I know what it is like out there at DailyKos. I never have the courage to register and post over there. It’s a very scary place. Hopefully it would be less scary after the primary is over.

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