Hillary At Over 50%

After leading in almost ever single poll this election cycle Senator Hillary Clinton – on this Wednesday, October 3, 2007 – has made a major breakthrough and is now supported by a clear majority of Democrats.

Hooray for Hillary!

For the first time, Clinton (N.Y.) is drawing support from a majority of Democrats — and has opened up a lead of 33 percentage points over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Her popularity, the poll suggests, is being driven by her strength on key issues and a growing perception among voters that she would best represent change.

Hooray for Hillary!

Even with the avalanche of publicity the Clintons have received, the Post-ABC News poll suggests that there is more than name recognition at work.

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 53 percent support Clinton, compared with 20 percent for Obama and 13 percent for former senator John Edwards (N.C.).

Hooray for Hillary!

Despite rivals’ efforts to portray her as too polarizing to win the general election, a clear majority of those surveyed, 57 percent, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate with the best chance on Nov. 4, 2008. The percentage saying Clinton has the best shot at winning is up 14 points since June. By contrast, 20 percent think Edwards is most electable and 16 percent think Obama is, numbers that represent a huge blow to the “electability” argument rivals have sought to use against her.

Hooray for Hillary!

One of the central claims of Obama’s campaign is that he is best suited to lower partisan tensions in Washington. But, in this poll, more see Clinton as best able to reduce partisanship.

Hooray for Hillary!

On major issues, Democrats are far more likely to trust her than her main competitors — 52 percent trust her most on Iraq, compared with 22 percent who trust Obama most on the war and 17 percent who trust Edwards most. On health care, 66 percent trust her most to handle the issue, compared with 15 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Edwards. Half see Clinton as the candidate who best reflects the “core values” of the Democratic Party.

Democrats remain roughly evenly divided over whether they want a candidate of change or of experience, the dichotomy that has been widely used to sum up the party’s race so far. Fifty percent said they prefer a candidate who emphasizes a new direction, and 42 percent said they want a proven, steady leader.

In both cases, support for Clinton has grown.

Hooray for Hillary!

Two months ago, 51 percent of voters seeking a candidate of “strength and experience” picked Clinton as their favorite. Now 62 percent of voters in this category support Clinton.

Among those looking for a “new direction and new ideas,” Clinton now has an edge, with support from 45 percent — compared with 31 percent for Obama. Previously, these “change voters” were split evenly between Clinton and Obama.

Hooray for Hillary!

Overall, support for Clinton exceeds 50 percent for the first time in the campaign. In five previous Post-ABC polls this year, she hovered in the low to mid-40s.

Hooray for Hillary!

In the new poll, Clinton has gained among both women and men. She leads Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination by 22 percentage points among men, and by 42 points among women. Fully 57 percent of women said they would support Clinton in a primary, compared with 15 percent for Obama and 13 percent for Edwards.

Hooray for Hillary!

Since early September, Clinton has picked up support both among Democrats (up 9 percentage points) and independents who lean toward Democrats (up 16 points). For the first time, a majority of married women, 56 percent, back Clinton. There is little difference between people who are tracking the campaign closely and those who are paying scant attention: Majorities in both groups said they would vote for Clinton if the election were held today.

Hooray for Hillary!

Clinton also has a wide lead among whites, besting both Obama and Edwards by a 3 to 1 ratio. She has a narrower edge among African Americans: 51 percent support Clinton, compared with 38 percent for Obama.

Hooray for Hillary!

Clinton’s backers remain firmly behind her candidacy. Sixty-one percent of those who said they would vote for her support her “strongly.” In another sign that Clinton has neutralized skepticism of her acceptability as a candidate, about three-quarters ranked her as a first or second choice. Half rate Obama in the top two; a third do so of Edwards.

No time to celebrate. Time for Hillary supporters to redouble our efforts. We will run as if we are 20 points behind, instead of 33 points ahead. And yes – Hooray for Hillary! You’re the Top!


71 thoughts on “Hillary At Over 50%

  1. I am VERY HAPPY that HILLARY is doing so well, and I am very supportive of HILLARY…….CAn someone please explain to me (and to my friends who are scratching their heads) WHY she voted the way she did last week on IRAN? I realize OBAMA voted the same way…..But it disturbs me. I am sure there is an explanation. I want to know.

  2. sandy:

    The most effective tool that the United States has employed against terrorist is disrupting the flow of money. In order to stop money transfers through the international banking system, the State Department must designate the organization as a terrorist group. That’s why the Senate voted to endorse the State Department naming the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. They have been funding Hezzbollah for years. The notion that the Kyl-Lieberman resolution had anything to do with military engagement is pure baloney. All references to military action were removed before passage. The resolution called for diplomatic and economic efforts.

    Best source for information on any Senate vote is Hillary’s senate site. She always releases a press statement:



    September 26, 2007

    Statement of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment

    Washington, DC – “Earlier today, I voted for a non-binding resolution that designates the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. The Revolutionary Guards are deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear program and have substantial links with Hezbollah.

    “I voted for this resolution in order to apply greater diplomatic pressure on Iran. This resolution in no way authorizes or sanctions military action against Iran and instead seeks to end the Bush Administration’s diplomatic inaction in the region.

    “Iran has gained expanded influence in Iraq and the region as a result of the Bush Administration’s polices which have also rejected diplomacy as a tool for addressing Iranian ambitions. While the United States has spurned talks, Iran has enhanced its nuclear enrichment capabilities, armed Iraqi Shiite militias, funneled arms to Hezbollah and subsidized Hamas, even as the government continues to damage its own citizens by mismanaging the economy and increasing political and social repression.

    “I continue to support and advocate for a policy of entering into talks with Iran, because robust diplomacy is a prerequisite to achieving our aims.

    “This legislation reaffirms my policy of engagement and refers specifically to the statement of Defense Secretary Gates who said that “diplomatic and economic means” are “by far the preferable approach” for dealing with the threat posed by Iran.

    “In February, after troubling reports about the possibility of military action against Iran, I took to the Senate Floor to warn that President Bush needs Congressional Authorization before attacking Iran. Specifically, I said it would be a mistake of historical proportion if the Administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran without further and explicit Congressional authorization. Nor should the President think that the 2001 resolution authorizing force after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, in any way, authorizes force against Iran. If the Administration believes that any use of force against Iran is necessary, the President must come to Congress to seek that authority.

    “Nothing in this resolution changes that.”

  3. HWC,

    Thank you……I honestly called one of my girlfriends and read your response verbatim. We were very worried about this. I guess we didnt have all the facts about the bill.

    We are once again HAPPY HILLARY CAMPERS!!!!!

  4. PS…..IF the HILLARY CAMPAIGN is reading this…

    You should do a better job of EXPLAINING this vote and explaining what the bill was all about….Many people I know have been wondering about this, and worrying.

    There has been no MEDIA about this AT ALL. SOME of HILLARY’s supporters have been left worrying that HILLARY wants to INVADE IRAN.

  5. Sandy1938 is correct. Same question came up on a conference call I was on yesterday morning. Hillary supporters need to be able to answer it, and the hwc summary above is the perfect response.

  6. I am stunned and delighted. This is an unprecedented majority. Never in the history of contemporary politics has someone been this far ahead this early.

    I’m happy and proud.

  7. It is amazing – in a race with 8 contenders – that Hillary has more support than the 7 men combined, plus the undecided.

  8. Admin.- it is coming together just as you said it would, and these polls confirm it.

    When you have a world class leader, the finest campaign organization in politics, a strong donor base, and a country that is ready for change, then good things happen in our democracy.

    In that case, political opponents and media wind sheer forces are of no lasting moment.

  9. many thanks to sandy1938 for the question and HWC for the response.

    i too was left questioning hillary’s vote on kyl-lieberman. this explanation should be be brought to light for those of us who felt our girl had suffered a temporary loss of mind.

    btw, i believe mr. obama was ( conveniently ) absent for the vote.

  10. 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

    Yippi Kay Yeay Motherfu**er!! Awsome.

    I got tears in my eyes, honest, I do!
    I’ve/We’ve been waiting for this day hoping it would arrive! And today is that day!! Fantastic!

    And on the day after Obamas anniversary-how rude! hahahaha
    And her support is not only large, it is strong as stated in the poll, great news!!
    10/03/2007!!! a great date, we’re on our way! Imagine how Hillary must feel now?!!

  11. Actually, that should have been 53% I was just so excited she had broken the 50 marker, but it’s 53% cool.

    Forgive me, but I must, I feel very giddy: 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%53% 53% 53% ok ok etc…… 🙂

  12. i just got home from work and turned on my computer and found a email from washington post.com to find hillary 33 points ahead!!!! by the time i checked this site admin had it posted. great news coming everyday. GO HILLARY GO!!!!

  13. sandy1938 and HWC

    thank you for the question and clarification regarding hillary’s kyl-lieberman vote. this really should be brought to light for anyone questioning the senator’s reasoning.

    btw – i believe mr. obama was absent for the vote….

  14. Awesome. Couldn’t have awoken to better news. What a great 2 days we’ve had this week so far. It’s only just begun.

  15. Good day all. I’m removing myself from self imposed exhile
    since mid August. That is when my wife had a major stroke
    and is now recovering. It has been a life altering experience
    for both of us. While she is recovering, I will limit my time on
    this site. However, I have been following it daily.

    As you may recall, I used to sign off my comments with
    “51 by Oct 1.” I couldn’t get any of you to join in. I preceived
    hesitation on your part. Perhaps too may ebbs and flows
    in political polling to know what and where to target next.
    Back in August I said follow the trend and check out the
    magins of error. Today’s good news is 53% with a magin
    of error +/- 4%.

    What should we expect next. Other polls that have Hillary
    in the low 40’s to start drifting upwards. Further, the
    SIEU endorsement may end up Hillarys. Unions like to be
    on the side of a “winner.” I’m sure this morning, the non-Hillary
    endorsed unions may be having second thoughts. You
    will know that by their actual manpower and money given.

    While, Iowa remains Hillarys biggest challenge, this poll
    will start to resonate in Iowa. All of the Iowa polling has
    the state divided three ways. Obama leading in the east,
    Edwards in the rural area and Hillary statewide. The state
    wide number is important because that is the only number
    that can grow. Localize support rarely grows beyond the
    base area. This is good for Hillary.

    So, for now the mantra should be 55% by Thanksgiving.
    And Iowa in her basket.

    I will rejoin you all in a few weeks.


  16. When I saw your tribute to Hillary by Cole Porter, I thought of a couple song titles by him that might describe the reaction of other two campaigns, when they saw these poll numbers:

    Obama: Down In The Depths On The 90th Floor (and dropping).

    Edwards: Follow The Advice of The Kling Kling Bird On Top Of The Divvy Divvy Tree (EE)

  17. Kegs, I’m so sorry to hear about your wife, and I hope her recovery continues. My prayers are with both of you. It’s wonderful to see you back here again. 🙂

    You were indeed clairvoyant. I remember your 50 percents posts very well!

  18. BTW, this poll absolutely floored me when I read it. I still can’t believe it. You know, I wonder if all that recent Big Media Hillary-bashing has backfired, especially that stupid analysis of her “cackling.” Many times in the past Clinton-bashing has had that effect, because it’s so often over the top.

    People get tired of criticism that’s personal and not substantive; I think people know immediately she’s being subject to stuff the male candidates aren’t. And the fact her inquisitors are usually male probably doesn’t hurt her, either.

    On the subject of her Iran vote, I agree that hwc’s explanation needs to be used to rebut any worries. It’s perfect.

  19. My sentiments as well Kegs. I had wondered where you were. These things are always tough.

    Your political instincts were and are very keen. Early October has proven to be the tipping point. Not for us but for so many undecideds.

    I had some pretty strong instincts of my own about the SEIU several chapters back, and it turned out I had misread Stern. However, in the end I agree he will go our way. Not as good as getting in early, but far better than backing a candidate who won’t win.

  20. Look at this: McCain backs away from criticizing Hillary (via AP)

    Republican presidential candidate John McCain has decided not to assail Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton for her stance on the Iraq War in a speech Wednesday at a military prep school.

    On Tuesday, McCain’s campaign released excerpts of his speech at Camden Military Academy in which the Arizona senator accuses Clinton of indecisiveness, arguing that won’t work for a post-Sept. 11 commander in chief.

    “The Democratic front-runner wants to have it both ways when it comes to foreign policy. On the one hand, the New York senator voted for the Iraq War. On the other hand, she now opposes it _ sort of,” McCain says in the prepared remarks.

    “On the one hand, she wants a firm deadline for retreat. But, on the other hand, she says we cannot abandon the nation to Iran’s designs,” the speech says.

    “Senator Clinton, this is not the ’90s,” McCain says. “This is the post-September 11 world. The commander in chief does not enjoy the luxury to conduct our national security by means of triangulation.”

    McCain decided Wednesday not to deliver those remarks, said Brooke Buchanan, McCain’s spokeswoman.

    “It has nothing to do with the content of the speech. It has to do with the with the venue,” Buchanan said. “This isn’t the appropriate venue for that.”

    Camden Military Academy is for students grades 7 to 12.

    Late Tuesday, McCain said he had not yet seen the remarks. “But I will look at them very carefully,” he said.

    Buchanan said while McCain had not seen the language in the speech about Clinton, he still planned to deliver the critique. She said Wednesday that he would not.

    On Tuesday, the Clinton campaign said the two senators, both members of the Armed Services Committee, “have an honest disagreement on the war.”

    “Senator McCain is the Senate’s biggest supporter of President Bush’s escalation there. Senator Clinton wants to end the war and when she is president she will,” Zac Wright, Clinton’s South Carolina spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement.

  21. Nice Kevin Drum post on the WaPo poll (washingtonmonthly.com):

    HILLARY’S LEAD….It’s still early, and people aren’t paying attention yet, and it’s statewide polls that really matter, and the Iowa caucuses are a strange beast, and, and, and…..

    And even so, Hillary Clinton’s lead (among Democrats) over Obama and Edwards in the latest Washington Post poll is pretty staggering: 53% to 20% to 13%. There isn’t a single category in which she doesn’t lead. Dems trust her on Iraq, trust her on terrorism, trust her on healthcare, and trust her on the economy. They even — hold on to your hats for this one — think she’s more likely to reduce partisan bickering in Washington than either Obama or Edwards.

    Actually, believe it or not, I think that last one might even be right. Yes, the loons are still out there, but everything I’ve read suggests that Hillary is a pretty effective senator and works well with her Republican counterparts, who appreciate the fact that she runs a tight ship, knows what she wants, and delivers what she says she’ll deliver. They might not like her politics, but she’s someone they can work with.

    In any case, she’s got a mighty big lead, and it’s getting bigger every month. This particular poll might be a bit of a blip thanks to her Sunday chat show marathon last weekend, the recent release of Bill’s book, and the Clinton Global Initiative getting so much press last week, but still. Obama and Edwards better start making a move soon. The train is leaving the station.

  22. hwc, sandy1938:

    Good point on that iran / ” terrorist quds army force” vote.

    All there were over 10 dem senators who voted yes but THESE 10 senators hd voted against the iraq vote in 2002; so there is some sense behind that vote…to fight and prevent terrorism in the right way; not declaring war. She can be tough against terrorism, and not for senseless war.

    Originally i was surprised and disappointed but now am comfortable with it…

    BTW…barack skipped the vote…he WAS AWOL from the senate and missed the vote! So he cannot claim he was against it from the start this time…he was stupid not to turn up to do his job in the senate on a wednesday…a working senate day.

  23. Hi Admin,

    There’s a fascinating piece on Obama in ‘The New Yorker Observer’…. We all need to take a look, looks like time is running out… It’s a long article

    In recent weeks, Barack Obama’s chief campaign strategist David Axelrod has met with major contributors at the campaign’s Chicago headquarters and in private homes to allay concerns about his candidate’s lack of movement in the national polls. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has presided over conference calls to calm down jittery bundlers. The candidate himself has even gotten on the phone with groups of big donors to assure them that the campaign is on the right track.

    “They were spending time trying to make all of us confident that there is a strategy,” said one major donor to Mr. Obama, who attended a meeting of the campaign’s finance team at the Chicago headquarters about a month ago. “And I remember David [Axelrod] saying that he thought Barack was positioned well. And all of a sudden it’s turning into October, and I’m not sure I see a strategy. And if it is being implemented—I’m not sure I see it being implemented so effectively.

    “Is it frustrating? Highly,” said the donor. “National polls do matter, number one. They say don’t worry, don’t worry, we’re positioned well. Well, what does that mean?”

  24. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the war we predicted has finally broken out between Edwards and Obama.

    The issue is who is the more immaculate anti-war candidate: i) the one who voted for it when he was a member of a Congressional committe that gave him inside information as to its risks, but later apologized for his vote profusely, or ii) the one who made a speech against it in a forum that did not matter, and has voted to fund it until recently.

    One prize, two contenders. Happy anniversary to both of them.


  25. At 1 p.m., Clinton will be endorsed by the 1.4-million-member American Federation of Teachers.

    The endorsement comes after votes from the 41-member AFT executive council and feedback from members through its Web site.

    “Our members have told us that they want a leader they can trust to strengthen public education, increase access to healthcare, promote commonsense economic priorities and secure America’s place in the world,” said AFT President Edward J. McElroy in a press release. “Hillary Clinton is that leader.”

  26. I am sure they are frustrated.

    If you have ever had a broker come to you with a questionable stock offering, recomend that you buy it based on his glowing recommendation, buy it, watch it plummet, and have him tell you to be patient, then you can understand how some of the Obama and Edwards donors must feel, as they see these poll results, and ponder their missed opportunities.

    Their opportunity for redemption will come in the GE, and at that poing their support for Hillary will be appreciated.

  27. Gosh,

    This is embarrassing for GOP candidates and Edwards…

    From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
    First Read has learned that Ron Paul has raised more than $5 million: $5,080,000 to be exact. They don’t have the total number or donors just yet or the exact average donation, but the campaign tells First Read that “last quarter was a $40 average donation; that trend appears to have continued.”

  28. When Hillary is running away, the other candidates are almost like cartoon characters.

    HAMPTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE — Ex-Sen. John Edwards was late for Winnacunnet elementary school this morning and he didn’t even get a hall pass. Cosmic justice: on the day that Edwards was set to speak to the National Education Associations”School to White House” team here, the American Federation of Teachers voted to endorse Sen. HIllary Clinton, a fact that will almost certainly appear in every newspaper account of the first half of the day.

    (A union source says the vote for Hillary was “overwhelming” — even though Illinois and New Mexico are well represented on the AFT’s board. Now — since the largest AFT affiliate is New York City’s United Federation of Teachers, the fact of the endorsement is not too surprising.)

    Edwards right now is talking to a high school civics class. They don’t seem terribly interested; they seem to recognize that they’re being used by a prop. As a crush of students passed by the classroom on their way to lunch, they paused and peered through the window. “He’s in third place, right?” “Hillary is the forerunner,” another said, referring, presumably, to her frontrunner-status and not to an animated vehicular doppleganger.

    Earlier, Edwards faced the students, and they asked him some tough questions: why did it seem like Edwards had flip-flopped on withdrawing troops? (He didn’t, and he used the students question to later say of Hillary Clinton, “My plan would end the war, Hillary Clinton would extend the war.” Another student asked him a delicious question about how he would pay for all the federal education programs he had just proposed — would he raise taxes? This is New Hampshire, after all. Edwards’s answer was satisfactory to the student: he’d raise the capital gains tax, yes, but squeeze out other savings by removing the middlemen brokers who make money of student loans.

  29. We’re enjoying a good news overload. Teachers endorsement, Kegs’ return, Hillary over 50%, and finally confirmation of what we have been told is going on in the Obama “campaign”.

    Along with Kostner’s posted excerpts of the story there is yet another Jesse Jackson whack (actually 2 whacks) at Obama. Not only does Rev. Jackson say his approach to the election would be different than Obama’s, Rev. Jackson also slaps down the Obama spin on polls being too early and not mattering.

    The Observer story was written before Hillary hit 50%+ in the polls and before beating Obama in fundraising. More donors will start publicly complaining soon and shifting support to Hillary.

    “Even on a local level, people start looking at which way is the country going, you know?” Mr. Jackson said. “It’s like boxing—you keep waiting for the big knockout punch, but while you’ve waited for the big knockout punch you’ve lost so many points. And that one big one might not be coming.

    “My support has not wavered for him,” added Mr. Jackson. “But my approach for getting the nation’s attention would be different.”

    “Many of us expected the gap to close more quickly,” said Marilyn Katz, an Obama donor and political consultant based in Chicago. She said the message that the campaign is pushing in private meetings and conference calls is “don’t be confused” by the national polls. She expressed confidence in the campaign but acknowledged that the current conventional wisdom has caused a “dislocated anxiety in the campaign.”

    “I don’t think there is panic,” she said. “But there is this sort of expectation that if you are a meteor you are going to stay in the sky, and it’s just not true and that’s just not how it is.”

    Ms. Katz said she saw the logic in concentrating on the primary states to avoid full engagement with Mrs. Clinton and her daunting national infrastructure.

    “This is the strategy they have chosen,” said Ms. Katz, adding, “Would I do it exactly the same way? No.”

  30. yes…edwards will raise taxes for all his pie-in-the-sky ideas…..and he will ask the DNC, DCCC, DSCC and many 527’s to pay for his promtion during mar-aug 2008 if he were to get the nominee….his stupid way of handicapping the whole dems party

    Yes edwards is such a big talker! he could not even take a loan from his own coffers….

  31. Hillary on canckles…

    At First Read, we noted Clinton’s laugh as deflection technique before she was on the Sunday shows. Today at the American Federation of Teachers’ endorsement announcement, she addressed that it’s been something political observers have started to notice.

    She thanked the organization and while wrapping up, she said, “I don’t want to go on too much longer, because it might cause me to laugh.” That was met by laughter from the audience. She went on to say who knows what we’d hear about for the next week or two. “You’ve got to have a sense of humor in this business.”

  32. Kos- cankles are when you don’t have ankles and they just blend into your calves. 🙂 I hope they don’t start on that next or I will break my TV.

    MP- Edwards is grasping at straws. Why should the DCCC, DSCC, DNC, etc. bail his butt out? His message isn’t sticking and the DNC, et al. are in the business of winning. Not losing. This is our chance to reclaim Congress and get a progressive climate in DC for social and business issues, no way we’ll give it up for a 3rd rate faux populist.

    Dem Dem- I like the Townhouse Tavern, too. Mucho fun even if I did almost get in a fist fight with some bike messenger one night. I liked the Toledo Lounge best though and a friend of mine bartended there forever. She took off this Summer to be a whitewater guide in Alaska. Crazy girl. Wish I had her guts…I needto go visit her soon.

    I still say SEIU will be in the Pink column by month’s end. Edward’s gave up that hope when he opted for public financing. Obama has no shot since his numbers are flatlined ad his organization is faltering. Hillary’s still going up, so I think the endorsement will be hers. It’s also smart bc of her great showing with AARP.

    Kegs, my best to you and your wife. A colleague had a similar thing happen and has battled back. He’s not a 100% and may never be able to do another Marine marathon, but his appreciation for life and family is greatly strengthened. Best of luck to both of you.

  33. Hey Kegs, been wondering where you’ve been, so sorry to hear about your wife, I wish you both well!! 🙂

    And I remember your prediction/wish very well, and I am most pleased to see you were right!
    And I am certainly om board with the 55% by thanksgiving!

  34. Oh, my! JE is going after Obama now for stealing his ideas. http://tinyurl.com/yqg9fu I think I was the one that noted here a while back that Obama has never had an original idea of his own ever. I think JE should should apologize to me for stealing my idea and presenting it as his own. 😉

    Hey- it’s a small story, but with all the campaigning, traveling and getting back to DC to vote, etc., Hillary still manages time to help keep Farm Services Agency field offices open for local farmers. Bwak and JE like to say she only focuses on big donors, lobbyists and the upper crust of society, but in all actuality, she does to bat day-in and day-out for the little guys who make this country great. http://www.herkimertelegram.com/articles/2007/10/03/news/news03.txt

  35. I love Maya Angelou! Especially since she endorsed Hillary.
    She hints at the bottom quote here that she certainly wouldn’t mind campaigning for her!! Imagine that!!! Oprah vs. Maya! hahahaha, Love it! 🙂 Oprah, your on the wrong side on this one.

    Here are a few quotes from resent articles of her: “I have seen her face some horrible experiences — some which would take many of us down,” Angelou said. “She has faced them and come up a woman, not apologizing for having life happen to her, but facing life.”

    Another article: “If she was closer to my age, I would call her from time to time and say ‘You go, girl,’” Angelou said.

    When looking at the presidential candidates, Angelou said she considered Barack Obama as well.

    “Mrs. Clinton had already claimed me,” Angelou said. “She didn’t know it, but I had been claimed by the woman she is.”

    Angelou said she doesn’t fly much anymore, but travels for the most part in a tour bus and will do what she can for Clinton’s campaign.

    “I’m not the only person in her camp, thank the Lord,” Angelou said.

  36. Paula, the MSM is sexist. Why don’t they comment on JE’s constant need to wear a blue tie to bring out his eyes? Or Bwak’s hair length changing depending on whether he’ in front of a black audience (longer) or a white audience (shorter), or Richardson’s fuller hair? Or Dodd’s ugly ties? Or Biden’s tucking in his chin like a boxer? Or Kucinich looking like a Christmas elf? Why does Bwak always have to wear white shirts?

    The closest they have come is teh $400 haircut thing and frankly that was even light compared to what Hillary has gone through. Why don’t they do a piece on the number of times JE blinks in 30 secs. Hell, we should turn that into a drinking game. I have made State of the Union bingo and Election Night bingo cards before. I’ll make new ones before the next Democratic Party debate and get them to admin. They’re damn funny. Any ideas posted here (and worth a damn) will be incorporated.

  37. Hehe, OkieAtty as sad as it may seem, those bingo (or shot games 🙂 ) can be helpful during a state of the union speech. With Bush in office, one should hope to not get the word ‘nukular’, wouldn’t last 15 minutes!

    Taylor Marsh has just reported on another vote – Feingold-Reid bill, that would have helped end the war. It was defeated, Hillary with Biden, Dodd voted Yay.
    Guess who didn’t vote????

    She didn’t find out where he was yet, but he certainly wasn’t doing his job.

  38. Hey y’all: You mean to say that Obama didn’t vote with his colleagues today on the Feingold-Reid bill. No, that’s shameful

    I am proud of Hillary getting to the Senate to do her job in the midst of very heavy campaigning. And I am so proud of the rising numbers.

    Thanks to all those who explained the Iran ammendment. I needed that explanation as well for people I talk to about our girl.

    Maya Angelou is wonderful. “I had been claimed by the woman she is.” I love it. Maya, you are indeed an elder of this village. Thank you. –mollyj

  39. More from today’s ABCNEWS poll.

    A general election matchup between Hillary and Rudy:

    51% – Hillary

    43% – Rudy


    Who’s more polarizing ? Voters could NOT vote for:

    41% – Hillary

    44% – Rudy

    54% – Freddie

    57% – Willard

  40. If I am right then the Ripublicans will go increasingly negative against Hillary between now and the primary. As a Hillary supporter it is important to understand their rationale so no one gets seduced.

    Each of the leading Ripublicans has a problem with their base. For Guilani it is the social issues. For McCain it is the war and immigration. For Romney it is flip flop, Momon, Seamus. Pick your poison.

    Thus, the only way they can hope to unite their base is to go negative against the other party and its leading candidate. They know the base has been subjected to 17 years of anti-Hillary propaganda, and will seek to exploit that fact.

    The subtext will be forget about my position on social issues, immigration, the war, my religion and whatever else about me drives you crazy it all comes down to this: I am the one who can beat Hillary.

    Each candidate will lauch his own kind of attack, a bidding war will ensue, MSM will join in and her own primary opponents will seek to exploit this.

    It will not work, but we need to be prepared to tell the faint of heart what is behind it, that it is a diversionary issue and talk about the merits of her position on the issues that matter to our future.

    That is how I intend to proceed. If any of you have a different take or would care to comment I would love to hear your thoughts. If not that is fine too,

  41. Check out this talkingpointsmemo.com post on the latest from Ana Marie Cox of Time:

    Time.com’s Ana Marie Cox has an interesting new “SwampCast” up arguing that Hillary’s anything but inevitable, despite Hillary’s $27 million fundraising haul and growing lead in national polls over Obama.

    Ana observes in her podcast that the “inevitability” boomlet could actually boomerang back against the campaign:

    “There’s a reason we have elections. There’s a reason that she’s not already in the White House. And primarily for Hillary, that’s Iowa. John Edwards has basically made Iowa his second home since about 2004, and he’s doing really, really well there…
    “With this much writing on her, I think the pressure’s even higher for her to win Iowa. If she doesn’t win Iowa, I think what’s going to happen is Democratic Primary voters…[are] going to look at the results from Iowa and they’re going to say, `You know what? Maybe she isn’t the inevitable candidate after all and I can vote for the person I actually want to vote for.'”

    Um, Edwards is doing well in Iowa? He hasn’t been ahead there in months, lol.

  42. Paula,

    The former Wonkette just wants a horse race. Expect to see a lot more of it from the MSM. They will come up with all manner of scenarios where if you just stand on one leg, pat your head, and rub your tummy all at the same time, Obama or Edwards will overtake Hillary.

  43. Ms Cox’s protestations sounds the world like “Whistlin’ past the Graveyard” to me. Especially when you have to put in the word “really” twice! :>)

  44. while you are looking around at all to commotion generated
    by the opposistion during october and early november. there is an event that transends political, and sports. It casuse mothers
    and daughters talk civilly and weep. And fathers and grandsfather wax nestalgic to their sons. if only for a few hour. and that is
    thanksgiving. Iowa political preaching needs to be closing down.
    Hillary steps forward with Bill, chelsea and an unfortunate turkey.
    Yes, in the heart of Iowa, the clintons will be exposed as another
    thankful american family praising god for the bounty for which they’
    receive. This is the thanksgiving message for all to see. (and then
    sllip out the back way to Iraq) Three weeks later, spend Christmas
    in Iowa too. Bring tiding a great joy. Only one more year of george bush.


  45. hi folks,

    I believe the last missing piece in this race is Iowa. Iowa really annoys me a lot. Why the hell do they believe they are more important than anybody else.

    Clinton needs to beef up her operations significantly in Iowa over the next few months. I hope her campaign has a master plan to nail it. It’s a tough nut to crack.

    I heard she’ll start to do lots of towhall meetings in small rural parts of Iowa starting from next week. Hopefully she’ll build up the momentum going forwards. I think Edwards is dead in the water even in Iowa. He’s pretty much today’s Gephardt. This makes things even more complicated for Hillary. It’s going to be a tough battle between Hillary and Obama in this state.

  46. kostner, all to the rabid political action you speak of has to
    end before thanksgiving. these folks a practical and they’
    are religious. thanksgiving and christmas can not be politicized.
    check my post above. It will calm the electorate allowing
    reason to prevail.


  47. Ya What’s the Matter with Iowa? They need to get with the program….don’t they get it? I can’t imagine how they could vote for BO?

  48. Help in IOWA! I live in Iowa and the people here are crazy. I have lived here for 18.5 years of my 19 year old life. The people here are uninformed. BO has only one sure strong spot, Iowa City. Otherwise, Hillary can work into the other people where it really counts in the small cities in rural counties who actually vote. Obama’s sole Iowa constituency is college students, most of which won’t show up to caucus, and the ones that will want to will be from Illinois. I will say that here at the UI, probably almost half of the students are from Illinois. Hill is going to be doing a swing through the rural towns soon, so we’ll see the polls change eventually. Tell me about it, I live here!

  49. celiff,

    Will BO steal the election by stuffing those Illinois students in the ballot box? I wouldn’t be surprised if he will promise to waive the tuition for these kids. somebody posted the following on myDD:

    Senator Barack Obama spoke to crowded ballroom of 400 at the Iowa Memorial Union on the University of Iowa campus this morning. The event was billed as a foreign policy town hall meeting and was an extension of the campaign’s commemoration of the five-year anniversary Obama announcing his opposition to Bush’s war in Iraq.

    I thought I had arrived a little late for an Obama event. Thirty minutes before the event was to begin there were still plenty of empty chairs. Though the chairs all filled up and a number of people were standing, several months ago I think I would have been too late to even get in the door.

    Most people in the audience were students. I was reminded that students can be just like everybody else in Iowa, undecided. I assumed that almost all of the UI students in attendance would already be supporting Obama. However, when I asked the two students who sat next to me their thoughts, one indicated he was leaning toward Clinton, and one said she was leaning toward Edwards. After a couple of more questions, though, I discovered that the Clinton leaner would not caucus because he was not yet a citizen, and the Edwards leaner was unsure of whether she could caucus because she was planning to be out of the state over her winter break. Assuming the caucuses take place before classes resume, I have no idea how these folks participate in large numbers. For Iowa residents, it is possible that they could all caucus in their home county, but from the campaigns’ perspective that is another huge organizational hurdle to overcome.

    As a former organizer, I appreciated the way he began his remarks. He spoke about his background as a community organizer, he held up a supporter card and made a direct pitch to the crowd to sign a card. Obama then thanked his Johnson County organizers by name for their work and indicated to the crowd that these were the people with which they ought to be in contact. I don’t think John Kerry would have done that.

    Senator Obama was very impressive this morning with the substance of the ideas he articulated – withdrawal from Iraq in 16 months, greater transparency for use of military contractors, grow the foreign service, never be afraid to speak with our enemies, etc. As I believe Obama would say, “It was a great speech. You can see it by going to http://www.barackobama.com.

    It is his style and delivery, though, that has and continues to build his base of supporters. Obama can connect to younger voters because he speaks intelligently and like a younger person at the same time. I remember a Wesley Clark ad four years ago where stereotypical college kid asks Clark about the music group OutKast and Clark had a ready reply as though he had been following their music closely (I think they followed-up on his answer with a fist bump). Obama could answer the same question with actual authenticity, or better yet, his campaign would not need to run that type of ad because people already get that message. At the same time, he can speak passionately and persuasively about finding common ground and earning the respect, if not the support, of the other side. When he talks about finding 60% majorities in order to accomplish change, it strikes me as credible and that he may be a realistic vehicle to do it.

    The Obama Campaign is presently obsessed with the issue of “experience” and I think they are ever so slightly off the mark with this. Everything I have heard from them recently – from the way the Obama pollster framed the questions I was asked when they called me yesterday to the focus on his judgment and foresight in opposing the war in Iraq – comes back to rebutting the idea that he does not have enough experience. It is not experience that would get me to caucus for him; my candidate of choice, John Edwards, does not have that much foreign policy experience. Senator Clinton does not have that much foreign policy experience. Obama is not going to get people like my Dad, who value experience above all else, anyway; he has already decided to caucus for Biden.

  50. celiff

    “BO has only one sure strong spot, Iowa City”

    Now that you mention it, I heard somebody (?) saying that the Obama campaign plans to have their supporters who are students at the University of Iowa (who are residents of Iowa) go home and vote in the caucuses, so that their vote will not be concentrated in the Iowa City results, but spread out among the rural areas, so it will appear that Obama has more widespread support across the state.

  51. I had not heard this. It’s funny though, because most of his supporters are the types that just don’t want to go out in January for an hour or longer to caucus. Over 60% of caucus goers in Iowa are over the age of 50, and Obama has largely ignored them, he skipped the AARP debate in Davenport, and he isn’t going to show up at the Johnson County BBQ (forrest whitaker is for him….lol). We are going to work dilligently to ensure that Obama falls flat on his face in Iowa. That was stupid of Obama to have the event in the mid-morning during classes. We had a University Democrats Meeting tonight (which I sit on the exec board of) and the prez of the UDEMS asked how many went to his event besides him and a few more of the execs, only one person raised their hand. It was funny. Obama is popular here, and he will bus as many people as he can to the caucuses. He buys spots on TV before Hawkeye football games. He’s not going to go quietly, but he will continue his descent into desparation. I have heard that he plans to spend tons of money on bussing people, more than any candidate I have heard so far. This is a sign, we should counter with hardcore outreach in rural areas, and FOCUS on eastern Iowa, which we need to get more involved in. It is the dem side of the state.

  52. The Hillary campaign is in organization preparation phase in Iowa. The campaign will makes its move at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Everything before J-J Day is a prelude.

    Iowa is all about organization. Once we have a reliable calendar and know, not guess, when the caucuses will be held, plans can be finalized.

    Keep eyes focused on the big campaign organization leaders in Iowa (like Hildebrand for Obama) and watch what they are doing, not the big distractions of public rallies and such. Michael Whouley is a very big player in all this. The other day Kostner pointed out that Whouley is doing research on second choices in Iowa. MW is the man to watch.

  53. Going by Celiff’s report the only thing missing in Obama’s plans for Iowa is orange knit hats. Sounds like Obama is reinventing the wheel and is ever so “innovative”. In traditional contests like Iowa the tried and true methods are the best.

  54. I can’t wait for the JJ dinner. Ah. I am so ready for that. Keep your eyes peeled for a UI sponsored event in early november I have details on. I will say it will provide hillary a chance to reach out to the youth of iowa.

  55. Sounds great-

    The Obama camp is doing their due diligence, reading here and gleaning as much forward info as they can to carry back to the snoops.

    Kegs, sorry to hear about your wife. I hope her recovery is swift and she’s back on her feet soon. Good to see you back posting again..

    Mrs. S.

  56. Joe Friday, the poll results on: Who’s more polarizing ? Voters could NOT vote for:

    41% – Hillary
    44% – Rudy
    54% – Freddie
    57% – Willard

    Is great news, I’m sure many democrats hoping for either Obama or Edwards would be surprised to see this part of the poll, their ridiculous claims that Hill is unelectable….well…what about these guys?! 🙂

    Wbboei: I liked your analysis very much, and I totally agree with it, and I think many might need a reminder that this is there tactic, once the race has really started!

  57. I know I am getting a little ahead of myself – but who do you guys think would be easy for Hillary to take on from the Republican side? Is Rudy Giuliani easy to take on?

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