Remember, Obama has been spending lots more in Iowa than Hillary, is from a border state, and has more than double the amount of offices opened in Iowa. Therefore Obama’s supposed small lead is hardly surprising and it is restricted to the smaller pool of “likely” voters.

In other words Hillary has a bigger pool of supporters who are much more committed to her than other candidates’ supporters are committed to them.

Also, keep in mind that after the Clinton lead among registered voters, the poll falls apart because the margin of error goes up to 7% when only Democrats likely to vote are included.

Edwards is falling apart. But we knew that back in December 2006.

Our bottom line is that Hillary has the wider and deeper support from voters that historically turn out on caucus night. Also, Edwards must win Iowa just to limp into Nevada and Obama’s campaign has made Iowa their must win state too. For Hillary, Iowa is just the starting gate.

BTW, that Iowa poll IS a mixed bag. A 10-point swing between voters and likely voters seems big to me. I think the silver lining is that it’s hard to pinpoint likely voters this far in advance; likely voters are a much smaller group by definition. I believe this is Newsweek’s first Iowa poll.

Hillary needs to finish no worse than second in Iowa, but finishing behind Edwards is preferable to finishing behind Obama.

Fortunately, there are signs of an epiphany among some of Hillary’s former opponents. In this mornings HuffPost, there is an article by John Baltz entitled: “On Race, Betrayal and My Growing Appreciation of Hillary Clinton”. The closing paragraph says this:

“Some months ago, I wrote of a run-in I had with
Hillary Clinton at an LA fundraiser. I watched her on the compulsively entertaining and strangely marvelous Joe Scarborough last week and found her to be stirring. And then she laughed on FOX like Redford in ‘The Candidate’, and I liked her even more. The real person is showing up and she’s been running circles around the other would be nominees. . .”

It would appear that we are not the only ones who appreciate that great laugh of hers. . .

Now MSM has settled on the term “cackel”. So I went to the dictionary for a precise definition, and here is what it says: “to utter a shrill unbroken cry as of a hen”. So there is a nice code word for you.

Maybe its just me, but I find the laugh engaging, and I want to laugh right along with her, and listen to what she says next.

And if you put it in context, you often find that the subtext is I understand where you are coming from, am wise enough not to walk into your little trap, and I am not standing here for your entertainment, or to give you a cheap headline, but to help the American People find a way out of the mess which George Bush has put him in.

With Tim there’s hope; with Matthews its hopeless. Despite his Tip O’Neil roots, you can count on him to jump to the Republican side, because as the comedic alcoholic of the old Jackie Gleason show used to say ” why stop now?”

A latest Newsweek Iowa poll has just come out. Mixed bag for Hillary. My fear of an Edward fizzle is quite justified based on this poll:

Among all voters:
Clinton 31
Obama 25
Edwards 21

Among likely voters:
Obama 28
Clinton 24
Edwards 22

Based on 1st/2nd choice total:
Obama 52
Clinton 44
Edwards 41

This poll shows a potential Edwards meltdown in Iowa. It will cause lots of uncerntainty there.

foxnews is already piling on this. The other outlets have not picked up. I heard many black blogs are buzzed with this clip. Edwards has no prayer, his support among minority group is almost zero. If the race comes down between Clinton and Edwards in early Feb, Hillary will likely win by a landslide. I’m a bit worried about his viability in Iowa. We need him to stay in Iowa to block Obama.