Two Questions Answered

How low has Obama sunk in popularity? How smart is the Hillary Team? Let’s quickly explore these two questions before we name our now long delayed new Hall of Fame inductees.

Terront alerted us to an article by Bob Novak on the latest moves and countermoves regarding the primary/caucus calendar.

The Clinton camp is saying, “Please don’t throw me into the brier patch.” Being forced to stay out of Florida and Michigan empowers Clinton’s vastly superior name identification in the two high population states and overrules potential defeats in lower population Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This poses a dilemma for Sen. Obama, Clinton’s main challenger, that key supporters admit he cannot resolve. Obama has also promised not to campaign in the excluded states, but he likely cannot win there without campaigning. [snip]

What is Obama to do? He cannot set foot in Michigan or Florida before Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina vote, for fear of offending voters jealous of their prerogatives. Nor, his supporters believe, could he slip into Florida for a little campaigning during a gap between voting there and the South Carolina primary, because that would smack of desperation. Hillary Clinton truly has a gift from the politicians of Florida and Michigan.

Kostner alerts us to a new Hillary video in the “millionth supporter” contest. Check out Ron and Michelle answer why they support Hillary (Ron on Hillary in debate “blowing them away”.)

And with Hillary meeting her millionth supporter, Obama is still scrounging around for another 600,000 people to get in the neighborhood of one million.

As some are beginning to notice, Obama’s support on social network sites has begun to plateau (and if the ‘Million Strong for Barack’ facebook group flatlining at 330K is any indication, they are also falling short of expectations).

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77 thoughts on “Two Questions Answered

  1. Man, what a great video, those guys were so lucky. And what a pair, Hillary and Bill, so gracious, warm, and sincere-they deserve all this success and more. Hillary’s election as president will, for me, validate both their legacies.

    I was also struck by the media coverage the past few days, with Bill on Oprah and Hillary on Ellen. It was just so refreshing, to hear them speak with intelligence and honesty, not the inane doublespeak of Bush and his cohorts. I do believe this is one reason why this campaign started so early, people were jsut so sick of Bush, they needed something positive to look forward to. Bill is right, elect Hillary and America’s standing and respect in the world will change for the good overnight. Can’t wait!

    BTW, this Fred Thompson guy, is he a significant threat to Hillary?

  2. Psymac: Ron is really fun on the video.

    As to Fred Thompson, think Fred Flintstone; Bill and Hillary are the Jetsons.

  3. aww man. i wish i was there. they had a ball, ron and michelle. good for them. thanx kostner and admin for the video link from youtube. i like how excited ron got when he called his family while with the clintons.

  4. psymac, no not thompson. but guliani, maybe huckabee is potiential threat. i commented on a earlier thread thompson is so old looking, he makes ronald reagan look stud like. he just does not excite anybody except the righties who see flaws in the other candidates.

  5. wow,

    I just watched the video, wow, that’s wonderful….

    Thanks for putting this out!! Both Clintons are such nice people…

  6. Hey y’all, I’d rather see a beautiful video like this one, than somethin with Oprey and Bomber anyday. After all these are real people standing up with the Clintons; they are real folks supporting Hillary, reminding us who really cares for real people. Who cares enough to work so hard every single day to run such a good campaign to get the messages across instead of all confused like BO or make em up as you go along mr. Breck “Ban SUV” Boy Himself. Anybody want to know what it costs some of his lawyer buddies to run their million dollar fishing boats from the NC coast to the jet stream? Talk about a carbon footprint…Jolly green giant size. But I digress.

    I am happy for those two featured in the video, even if I did enter myself. It’s something they’ll remember for ever and bein’ part of something so big and exciting is just wonderful.

  7. freddie “kruger” thompson: think the geico caveman commercials. He’s an insult to our evolutionary heritage.

  8. I really believe democratic primary is tougher than general for Clinton. What a sorry GOP crew… Hillary will likely beat any of them by a decent margin…

    I can’t believe thompson and McCain are still running. They are so yesterday….

  9. M.O is getting even tackier. She’s now talking about her husband’s bedroom manner. Just bizarre. Tucker is laughing loudly on msnbc…
    Is this guy really running for president??

    From NYT’s caucus:

    Tales From the Obama’s Bedroom
    By Katharine Q. Seelye

    When is some information too much information?
    In an interview with Glamour magazine, Michelle Obama reveals that her husband, Barack, is so “snore-y and stinky” when he wakes up in the morning that their daughters won’t crawl into bed with him.
    The interview, in the magazine’s October issue, was conducted by Tonya Lewis Lee, who is married to Spike Lee, the filmmaker.
    Referring to their daughters, Mrs. Obama says: “We have this ritual in the morning. They come in my bed, and Dad isn’t there — because he’s too snore-y and stinky, they don’t want to ever get into bed with him. But we cuddle up and we talk about everything from what is a period to the big topic of when we get a dog: what kind?”
    Mrs. Obama has been famous, of course, for humanizing her husband with such homespun details, including his habit of not picking up his socks. Is this useful information? With a voracious media out there, the line is getting blurrier and blurrier. But Mrs. Obama seems to feel it serves a purpose.
    “Barack is very much human,” Mrs. Obama tells Glamour in response to a reader who wants to know why Mrs. Obama thinks she has been criticized for discussing her home life in such detail. “So let’s not deify him, because what we do is we deify, and then we’re ready to chop it down. People have notions of what a wife’s role should be in this process, and it’s been a traditional one of blind adoration. My model is a little different — I think most real marriages are.”

  10. umm, well i don’t know what voters will do with this bit of imfo but i sure hope hillary does not doll out this unneeded stuff. silliness for sure.

  11. right now it seems that guiliani seems her greatest competition in the polls, is that accurate? Prediction: guliani will not go over that great in southern states. People gonna look at him and go, “where’s that boy from?”

  12. Wow,

    Boy, Obama campaign must get desperate today. It just makes me laugh so loud. Remember today the OH poll gives Obama another big blow since he’s barely tied with McCain and Rudy while Edwards and Clinton beat both comfortably.

    Then there’s a CO poll coming out showing Clinton is 6 points behind Rudy, and Obama is 1 point behind.

    Obama campaign immediately rolls out a memo to tout this poll in order to counter that devastating OH poll. This is so blatant. Talking about being obsessed with polls… These days, Obama has to hang on to any poll that shows life, even in that remote Colorado desert, 18 months away…

    Read talkingpointsmemo’s story…
    Barely hours after the news broke of that new poll in Colorado showing Obama faring better against Rudy than Hillary in the state, the Obama campaign has already sent out a new memo arguing that Colorado in particular, and the west in general, presents a big opportunity for Obama and his “message of change.”

    The memo, from campaign manager David Plouffe, notes that Obama is staffing up and opening offices in the state and argues that Obama’s “appeal to independents shown through countless national polls” is a key advantage in Colorado, because “unaffiliated voters are the largest block of registered voters in the state.”

    Colorado, of course, is a key swing state and was the site of recent Dem gains on the state level. It was chosen to host the Democratic National Convention, reflecting the belief of national Dem strategists after the gains of 2006 that the west offers major possibilities for expansion next year and beyond. By pointing Obama’s appeal among indys and to the poll showing Hillary faring less well in the state, Camp Obama, obviously, is trying to make the case that (unlike Hillary) he is the Dem who can consolidate these gains and best exploit these expansion opportunities.

    For those of you who like reading these things, we’ve got the full memo after the jump.

    Full memo:

    The West is emerging as a key battleground for Democrats and a great opportunity for Barack Obama’s message of change. While the four early primary states are a critical focus of our plan to win, we plan to play aggressively in Colorado by investing in staff, offices and time leading up to the February 5th caucus. We are the first campaign to announce the hiring of staff and a plan to open offices in the state and our hope is that we will have the opportunity to continue our presence and commitment through November of 2008.

    The Colorado Caucus is an opportunity for the campaign to implement a combination of grassroots field and online organizing tactics that the campaign has successfully used all over the country. This includes training volunteers, bringing new voters into the process and building an organization from the ground up. This Saturday the campaign will hold a Colorado Caucus Convention where campaign staffers and local political leaders will brief volunteers and supporters on the state of the race in Colorado before holding a mock caucus in the afternoon.

    In addition, Obama’s appeal to independents shown through countless national polls and surveys, is a key advantage in Colorado where unaffiliated voters are the largest block of registered voters in the state. A new poll released today (http://www.rbistrategies.com/content/43/survey-research-on-colorado-presidential-race) shows Barack Obama has the best chance of defeating Republicans of all the major democratic candidates. In a head to head match-up he defeated Mitt Romney (50%-37%). His approval rating of 51% also puts him a full eight points ahead of the approval ratings of other Democratic presidential candidates in the state.

    While our primary focus will be on building our team of precinct captains and leaders, we also plan on reaching out to unaffiliated voters and encouraging them to take part in the process. Unaffiliated voters can change party registration up until December 5th. Engaging these unaffiliated voters and those who haven’t been a part of the political process in the past like young voters and those who have become cynical with the process is part of our strategic plan in the state.

    Building a Team in Colorado:

    We have moved one of our key political staffers from our Chicago office to Colorado to serve as the State Director. Ray Rivera, a Colorado resident who was the Political Director in Colorado for the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees(AFSCME) prior to joining the Obama campaign will lead the team. In addition the campaign will open an office in the next few weeks where volunteers and Colorado supporters will be able to play an active role on our team by phone-banking, organizing door-knocking in communities across the state and expanding the team by recruiting additional supporters.

    We are also proud to have the support of State Senate Pro Tempore Peter Goff and several elected officials throughout the state. We will rely on their leadership and expertise as we continue to build our team from the bottom up in Colorado.

    Putting Grassroots Energy into Action:

    Colorado’s status as a caucus state means that success is based on the quality of organizing and the ability of the campaign to capitalize on the overwhelming grassroots support for Obama’s candidacy. We have already begun putting our grassroots support into action. More than 500 people volunteered to door-knock across the state on June 9th as part of our nationwide “Walk for Change.” In addition, there are already more than twenty grassroots groups that have been started by supporters including “Colorado Springs for Obama” with more than one-hundred members and “Colorado Families for Obama” with more than thirty members.

    In addition to the Colorado Caucus Convention on Saturday, we plan to implement an aggressive strategy of signing up and training precinct captains and leaders in every precinct across the state. We will continue to hold regular organizing meetings and caucus trainings so that our supporters are best equipped on caucus day.

    Obama on the Top of the Ticket:

    Colorado is a key swing state and in 2008, Democrats and Republicans will be in a head to head match for the electoral votes in the state. Democrats won the majority in the State Legislature for the first time in 44 years in 2004 and picked up an open congressional seat during the 2006 election cycle.

    The National Democratic Party has taken notice, awarding Colorado the 2008 Democratic National Convention in arguably the Democrats’ best year to take over the White House in a decade.

    During the 2008 cycle there are contested seats up and down the ticket most visibly Mark Udall’s Senate bid. These seats will not be won by appealing to only one wing of the party. Instead what is needed is a strong voice with a record of reaching across party lines and uniting instead of dividing. Barack Obama has shown that he is committed to winning in all parts of the west by also reaching out to rural voters on issues like access to healthcare in rural communities, the water shortage crisis and other challenges specific to the western part of the country.

    Setting the Groundwork

    We are focused on first winning the Colorado Caucus on our way to the nomination, but our commitment does not stop there. We recognize Colorado is a state in play for Democrats and Barack Obama would be a strong choice for the top of the ticket for elected officials and voters. Our strength is in our grassroots appeal and our ability to inspire people to take action and over the course of the next five months we plan on laying the groundwork to winning in February and again in November.

  13. Wow,

    Boy, Obama is getting desperate on polls. Remember that OH poll showing good news for both Edwards and Clinton. Obama campaign is getting so nervous, and they immediately roll out a memo touting a poll in CO shows he’s ONLy 1 point behind Rudy, while Clinton is 6 points behind….

    Wow, talking about poll obesession. Obama has to hang on to any poll having any ‘good’ news for him, even it’s in a remote Colorado desert, 18 months away…

    You can read the entire thing on talkingpointsmemo…

    Another funny thing is that after talking touted Clintons’ good head-to-head numbers in OH, many Edwards followers flooded talking site, and they had to take down that OH poll diary and roll out another CO poll diary showing ‘less’ good news for Clinton to pacify those nuts.

    LOL. Hilarious.

  14. Gosh,

    I am watching the ‘Tucker’ show. At the beginning of the program, Tucker read the article I mentioned, and made some silly comments such as M.O . and O.B do not sleep in the same bed according to this article.

    Obama campaign immediately sent a message to Tucker’s show correcting this. So by the end of the show, Tucker had to rehash this whole thing saying he knew nothing about their bedroom habit, he got this from that interview.

    My GOD!!!

  15. WASHINGTON (CNN) — The impact of a prominent presidential endorsement often fails to resonate at the polls, but popular talk show host Oprah Winfrey’s backing of Sen. Barack Obama could prove to have a more significant effect.

    Oprah Winfrey may have a larger role in Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

    Winfrey, who first told CNN’s Larry King last year she is backing Obama, may assume a visible role in the Democrat’s presidential bid, a source close to the Illinois senator tells CNN. She is already slated to hold a star-studded fundraiser at her California estate this weekend.

    Winfrey has repeatedly shown her name can sell nearly anything, but the media magnate has never endorsed a presidential candidate before.

    It remains to be seen if the popular talk show host’s role may go beyond raising money from her Hollywood friends, but the prospect of seeing Winfrey in campaign commercials or on the stump is already causing widespread speculation on the effect she may have. Watch how Winfrey could boost Obama

    “I think what Oprah can do is potentially bring out the congregants of the church of Oprah,” Marty Kaplan, a communications professor at the University of Southern California, tells CNN. “She is a charismatic leader of a lay congregation.”

    People buy books when she tells them to. They will watch her shows, and buy her magazines when she asks them to,” Kaplan added. “So the question is, are enough of them willing to follow her lead not with a consumer good, but with a ballot cast?”

    Moreover, Kaplan says, Winfrey’s core audience is women, and her endorsement could help Obama compete with his chief presidential rival, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, for women’s votes.

    “One of his campaign officials in California told me Oprah is everything,” Kaplan added. “So they have high hopes for the endorsement.”

    Obama and Winfrey’s close relationship may also increase the chance she will be willing to take a visible role in the campaign.

    “They met way back here in Chicago in the African-American social circuit back in, I believe, either the late 1990s or around 2000 when he was running for Congress,” David Mendell, an Obama biographer tells CNN.

    “Obama is very adept at selling himself to people of the elite,” Mendell added. “And so, in the last year or so, he has sat down with her and they have struck up this relationship.”

    Obama’s campaign wouldn’t elaborate on what role Winfrey may have, but spokesman Bill Burton told CNN, “We are proud to have the support of such an important and dynamic individual.”

  16. I hope the idiotic media continue to hype up this ‘Oprah’ stuff. Mark my words, it’s going to hurt him in the long run.

    He’s already been considered as a fluff politician, these sorts of things will only reiforce such impression.

  17. Kostner,

    Agreed. Oprah + O-Bomb-A perpetuates the nothing campaign.

    Oprah as political king maker is about as funny as O-Bomb-A as commander in chief.

  18. Why haven’t the articles been updated on the side over here?

    The reason Obama is doing ok in CO is because there are alot of very liberal people there and alot of evangelicals. He hasn’t campaigned there. If he seriously starts to the evangelicals are likely to dismiss him once they realize that even though he talks about religion alot he is pro-choice. And, the liberals are likely to dis him once they realize he’s not as liberal as they are on a number of issues. This is what happened in CA. People ascribed whatever they wanted to him, because he’s always saying how transcending he is. Then, once they got to know him, they realized he wasn’t who they thought he was. With Hill it is exactly the opposite. Everyone on both sides assumes she is the opposite of them. Then, when they get to know her, they realize they have alot in common with her. This CO nonsense seems like smoke and mirrors to distract from the Ohio numbers.

    If Obama doesn’t want to be deified, he should probably stop running ad’s on christian radio stations calling for “Obama time”.

  19. mj: are these like the ads on black radio describing Obama as a “soldier for justice?”

    Funny thing is, usually soldiers for justice are well-known and don’t need radio ads to inform the citizenry.

  20. terrondt, I don’t think you have to worry about Hillary talking like that about Bill, lol. Never in a million years. (I also loved your comment on Fred Thompson.)

    I have no idea what M.O. was thinking when making those comments. Yikes!

    BTW, a Pew poll shows people think Rudy and Hillary are the least-religious candidates running. This is something that I hope will change as the campaign progresses, and I believe it will.

    Also, thanks for posting that video with HRC’s millionth supporters. I loved it!

  21. MJ, excellent points about CO. I have family and friends there. It is full of elitist type liberals and evangelical freaks. Look at the Coors family’s political hold on the state. Also remember Focus on the Family and Ted Haggard and Rev. Dobson all hail from there. The state in a way is schizophrenic. Stinky won’t do well once they figure out who he is not.

    As for the Oprah thing, independents are absolutely necessary this election cycle. Many of them hated Susan Sarandon, Sean Penn etc. for inserting themselves into politics in 2004. The backlash will happen again. And it certainly doesn’t help to have an endorsement from her or have her making campaign ads when you have a problem with gravitas, credibility and experience.

    Any chance of this big fundraiser being investigated by the FEC for donor limit problems? Oprah is spending 3M on it. isn’t that an inkind contribution in excess of federal spending limits? And doesn’t something like that just shout “elitist” and “special access,” too? No way he gets a free pass on lobbyist questions anymore.

  22. Winfrey eyeing ways to help Obama
    By The Denver Post
    Article Last Updated: 09/05/2007 11:43:35 PM MDT

    In this photo released by Harpo Productions Oprah Winfrey, right, sits with former New Jersey first lady Diana Matos McGreevey, left, during a taping for “The Oprah Winfrey Show” Wednesday, April 25, 2007, in Chicago. (AP file)Washington – TV show host Oprah Winfrey, the nation’s wealthiest African-American, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in May. Now she is in discussions about playing a broader role in the campaign.

    On Saturday, Winfrey will host her first-ever presidential fundraising affair at her estate in Montecito, Calif. – an event expected to raise more than $3 million for Obama’s campaign. That’s just a start. The Winfrey and Obama machines have maintained silence on what her role will be, but the idea of her appearing in television ads and other appeals is very much in play. She offered during a recent interview with CNN’s Larry King: “My money isn’t going to make any difference. My value to him – my support of him – is probably worth more than any other check that I could write.”

    The Washington Post

  23. Secret, wow. Just wow. I find that completely unethical. I think it will blow up in his face. But, I honestly can’t believe how full of herself she is.

  24. The media is hyping this so much it very well could backfire. I know there was something about it on NBC News tonight.

  25. Well, it’s “backfired” with me. First, she butchered Beloved and now this…Screw her. The endorsement and fundraising(and frankly, clearly she came up with the book group thing, I’m sure whom ever coordinated that is from her publishing house)but now she’s going to appear in ad’s??? Crazy.

  26. I wonder if there’s any footage of Oprah begging Hillary to run for prez at the Nov 2005 International Emmy Award ceremony.

  27. HillaryLandRocks Says: I wonder if there’s any footage of Oprah begging Hillary to run for prez at the Nov 2005 International Emmy Award ceremony.

    Bet there is. Oprah is jumping the shark.

  28. My reaction to the pledge situation was the same as Novaks, inasmuch as it preserves the status quo ante in both Florida and Michigan, where Hillary holds a major advantage, and by handling it the way she did she was able to respect the rights of all parties–the early states, the two in question, the DNC. As for her opponents, she followed the time honored maxim of Napoleon: never interrupt an adversary in the middle of a mistake. One of the MSM darlings said recently that Obama practices judo. If so, then he is a green belt, and Hillary is a black belt–10th degree.

  29. mj: Bet there is. Oprah is jumping the shark.

    There is — I just looked up older articles.

    Funny how the press doesn’t mention this … I suspect they’re saving it for on down the line when (if) Oprah goes on a public tear w/ her support for Obama.

  30. folks,

    let’s not get sidetracked by Ophrah… Endorsements are meaningless in most cases. Obama does not need a nod from Oprah, he needs a nod from some serious figures…

  31. Kostner, the endorsement, book club coordination, fundraising, I was ok with, but it is a huge FU to the nearly completely female market that made Oprah who she is today that she would use her show and possibly appear in ad’s to promote a candidate in the primary over the first Democratic woman to run with a huge shot at becoming president? For me, this isn’t about Obama. I’m pissed at Oprah. She butchered one of my favorite novels, I forgave, but hell I was one of those that used to watch her show in the ealy days, that helped her become a billionaire. Her brand is about empowering women. This is the ultimate insult. I’ll get over it, it’s not like I was ever one of these Oprah ladies, but for me this has diddly to do with Obama. It’s just an insult.

  32. Folks, Don’t worry about Oprah…

    Take a look at the following O-BOMB-A stock chart:

    data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=177448&trade

    The O-BOMB-A irrational exuberance has ended. In financial market parlance, the O-BOMB-A stock bubble has burst!

    Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
    All the King’s horses and all the King’s men — Greg Craig, Samantha Power, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Oprah Winfrey —
    can’t put Humpty together again!

  33. I am just fuming with anger at this silly “me, me” oprah. She doesn’t want me to a stage mother for Obama. Truth is – she has such a huge crush on Obama and is having a bloody mid-life crisis. Juts get over yourself mad cow and stop staring in Obama ads.
    Cannot stand her anymore. Bloody keep your arse out of Primaries. If Obama wins primaries and then if she sides with him that is another thing but to get involved in the internal party to decide who the nominee will be is madness! She isn’t vene a registered democrat!I hope someone beats the creap out of this woman!

  34. mj – not that I like Oprah, I think she’s a dunce, but I think her support of the Black community has always trumped her support of women. That is her major mission in life. I didn’t realize she’s such a turncoat though, and supported Hillary in 2005! That’s pathetic. I hope it backfires.

  35. She’s not even a Democrat? Steadman was probably a Rethug. What an idiot! I thought Gail was dumb, maybe Oprah’s the real stooge.

  36. Hey ya’ll, I am pissed at Oprey, too. No, I am down right shit kicking mad. But what can we do but simply work hard to get Hillary elected- a real low down concerted effort. Not that we aren’t doing that already. I fdo eel like there’s something we should be doing. I hope that the Oprey move is going to backfire some how. Finding those transcripts from the Emmy’could be useful. In reality, what this does, symbolically, is make the presidential election into a popularity contest. More than it already is. It’s startin’ to feel like the “sweeps” weeks on television. Perhaps if other well known people would speak out against Oprey for doin this–and say that they won’t go on her show? Just an idea. I think she sees herself as coming into a more priviledged position because of her affiliation with BO. This is a little psychoanalytic, but it’s about power and priviledge and the have nots becoming the haves. Ok I am gonna shut up till I think of somethin smarter to say –mollyj

  37. I sense this is already backfiring. Do remember not everything Oprah’s touched has tuned to gold: Beloved, Million Little Pieces, Steadman…need I say more?

    Mollyj, you always have something smart to say.

  38. I will say this: look at what got Oprey so popular in the first place with her large constituency. I say Hillary needs to keep her focus on message and keep finding ways to interact with “real people” The more real people she can talk to, shake hands with, have lunch with, greet at a rally, the more she will gain momentum.. People called Hill cold and calculating, you could trap spiders in the web Oprey’s tryin to weave for herself. ok nuf said–mollyj

  39. Oprey’ a rethug? Don’t that beat all, indeed? It also fits with my hypothesis. But see, there’s an open niche now–for somebody who for real empower’s real people–that’s where the Clinton campaign comes in, I think. I feel like Hillary’s had a light shining on her for the longest that’s said “future President.” And Oprey can’t take that away. mollyj

  40. I agree, mollyj. I think Oprah is going to piss off alot of her fans if she starts doing ads and stuff anyway, and men ae not going to associate Oprah’s man with strength, IMO. This seems quite desperate. Maybe her role will be to shore up AA support. Maybe this is all a way to try and disrupt the Bill Clinton effect this week.

  41. Mollyrichards, I completely. I have met Hillary only once at a small gathering during her Senate campaign, spoke to her for one minute, and listened as she delivered a powerful speech without notes which lasted a full hour. As she spoke I remember thinking to myself I hope she decides to run, if she does she will be the next president of the United States and it cannot come too soon. The effect she had on that audience was magic, and it lingers to this day. I mention this only to show how right you are that the more people who get to meet her and see her as she really is, the more the tide will turn in her favor, and the Ophra bounce will be irrelevant.
    yesterdays news.

  42. I see where an anti-war group plans to picket a Hillary fundraiser tomorrow, even though Hillary has taken a leading role in Congress and on the Campaign trail to end the war. These are the same kind of people who would burn down a bread factory to protest the fact that they were starving.

  43. mj, you bring up a good point about Oprah’s support will probably not help Obama with men nor his lack of credentials with regards to ‘Commander In Chief’, hihi, which is rather nice, the gain(if any) from women, he could loose with men. hmm…..Who in return, could side with Hill!!
    See how quickly we resolved this mini ‘crisis’? 🙂

  44. wbboei, I actually think Hillary could gain some traction with the angry left and anti war people(aren’t we all?!!) by going to them(if their not hostile) and shake their hands and talk with them.
    They can see that she is in fact on their(our) side, and leave behind some unreasonable anger towards her.
    It would get her some good press.

  45. “Selling Obama May Be Beyond Oprah’s Reach” in today’s Chicago Tribune.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/chi-fri_phil_0907sep07,0,4548781.column

    “Just by backing a candidate, something she has avoided before, Oprah has drawn attention to herself and to Obama. While she has forwarded causes before, this is different and potentially polarizing, which is what makes it interesting. But if you can’t do what you want when you’re as rich and popular as Oprah, when can you?”

  46. Hillary should do something truly newsworthy this weekend to steal some of the spotlight from the Oprah bash such as releasing the details of her health care plan or something. Otherwise, given the celebrity obsession of the media, the Oprah event will be the main focus of discussion.

    On the other hand will this continue to be in the news? Is Oprah going to talk about Obama constantly on her show? Will she be saying things that are designed to get constant notice in the national media? Or will the event of this weekend get attention but after that if she just goes out on the campaign for him will that even be covered by the press in the long run? After all, other celebrities have campaigned for candidates..it’s not unusual.

    These are things that make me wonder about any actual impact…. It seems to me that unless she does something truly different than has been done before in a candidates campaign why would there be significant media coverage over the next few months (even if it’s Oprah).

  47. American Gal, I don’t worry about fundraisers and such, my thing is only appearing in ad’s and taking on a significant role, which I think crosses a line.

    But, forget it. Hillary can take this too.

  48. heres a video of a focus groups response to Hillarys first ad, it’s interesting. Of course when she criticizes President Bush the republicans hate it! haha, and Dems like it!! hihi

    youtube.com/watch?v=EV8fM9Fx7iI

  49. Hello everybody,

    Lighten up! Although we should not be indulged in the daily tracking poll, I still want to share with you the good news. Hillary hits a high watermark of 45% today!

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows little change in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. New York Senator Hillary Clinton attracts 45% of the vote from Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Barack Obama is the top choice for 23% while John Edwards attracts 13% (see recent daily numbers).

    Three-out-of-four Democrats (75%) believe that if Clinton wins the nomination, she is at least somewhat likely to win the White House in 2008. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats say the same about Edwards and 69% think Obama is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. However, there is a higher degree of confidence in Clinton than other candidates. Forty-one percent (41%) of Democrats say that Clinton is Very Likely to win the White House if nominated. Just 26% say the same about Obama and 24% have that confidence in Edwards.

  50. That’s great news!!!

    I’ve been dying to see those rasmussen numbers go higher than a 19 and 20% lead, and here it is, great news kos!

  51. Boston Globe is putting the video up on their website, and files the following report. Great free media!!!!

    It’s not quite winning a new car or getting free burgers for life for being the one millionth customer.

    But Ron Wood seemed thrilled just the same to be the one millionth supporter to sign up on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign website.

    His prize: He got to spend Labor Day in Des Moines with the former First Lady and with former President Bill Clinton.

    “It’s amazing because all of my friends say that you are the biggest Clinton supporter in the world,” he told the camera operator recording the day.

    The campaign released a web video today of the highlights: hugging the power couple as they got off the plane, devouring a hot dog at the fairgrounds, being introduced onstage, and putting the Clintons on the phone with his mother and sister.

    “They’re screaming like bobbysoxers,” said Wood, a computer programmer from Georgia.

    Another longtime supporter, Michelle Smith, a sixth-grade teacher from Michigan, tagged along. “I know I will be telling my grandchildren about this some day,” she said in a campaign press release announcing the video.

    And now, Clinton is offering lunch at her home in Washington as a new prize. The winner will be picked from people who contribute by midnight Friday.

    “Let’s do lunch,” she says in her pitch. “Let’s talk, you and me — about whatever you’d like. Our hopes. Our goals. Our work. The weather. Maybe even politics.”

  52. Thanks, mj, her being unregistered makes sense. BTW, check out this great talkingpointsmemo.com post on another idiotic observation by columnist David Broder:

    One of the more astonishing things about your pundits is their inability to fathom the idea that the American public simply doesn’t view the Clinton Presidency — and Bill Clinton himself — in anything remotely resembling the same terms that they do.

    Really, it’s almost as if they desperately hope that the public will reject the Hillary candidacy chiefly because of him. Her victory would mean Bill had succeeded in returning to White House despite the fact that they so disapproved of him and his naughty behavior when he was there the first time. It’s almost as if this would be some kind of defeat for them, or something.

    Here, for instance, is David Broder today:

    But one thing is absolutely clear. Her marriage is the central fact in her life, and this partnership of Bill and Hillary Clinton is indissoluble. She cannot function without him, and he would not have been president without her. If she becomes president, he will play as central a role in her presidency as she did in his. And that is something the country will have to ponder.
    But Mr. Broder, the country already has pondered this question, and it’s overwhelmingly concluded that this is either a good thing or that it doesn’t matter a whit. The only people “pondering” this question right now are pundits like you.

    CNN poll:

    If Sen. Clinton wins the Democratic presidential nomination and goes on to win the general election in 2008, 60 percent of Americans believe her husband would have a positive effect on her administration, while 30 percent think it would be negative.
    Gallup poll:
    Americans predict Clinton would be an asset as a presidential spouse. By a better than two-to-one margin, 70% vs. 28%, Americans believe he would be more helpful than harmful to his wife’s presidency.
    USA Today poll:
    Do you think the past history and current state of the Clintons’ marriage should or should not matter to voters when they consider voting for Hillary Clinton for president?

    Yes, should 23%

    No, should not 76%

    What’s really dispiriting about this vacuous pundit-approved narrative is that there’s just nothing that will ever make it go away. Back in 1998, when Broder said this of Bill’s White House tenure…
    “He came in here and he trashed the place,” says Washington Post columnist David Broder, “and it’s not his place.”
    …Bill Clinton’s approval rating hovered in the sixties, and solid majorities said Bill’s transgressions didn’t matter as long as he ran the country well.

    Almost a decade later, nothing has changed. Any day now, the voters are set to start “pondering” just how bad Bill was and how outraged they are about it.

  53. Wow!! ‘Let’s do lunch’ generates $600,000 in donation over hte past 72 hours.

    The e-mail from Hillary Clinton landed in the in-boxes of her supporters on Tuesday with the subject line: “Let’s do Lunch.”

    Inside was an invitation: “We’re going to choose one supporter to come to my house in DC, along with a guest, to share lunch and talk. And if you contribute between now and midnight Friday, September 7, it could be you.”

    The concept was not new — Barack Obama invited his internet donors to compete for a chance to sit down with him for dinner back in June. Five donors were selected, and dined with Obama later that month. But with an added boost yesterday from President Clinton, who announced he would drop in on the meal, too, the Clinton fundraising gambit is looking to be among her most successful online efforts.

    The two emails had generated more than $600,000 in contributions over the first 72 hours, said Phil Singer, a Clinton campaign spokesman.

    It’s not clear how that compares with Obama’s dinner-time haul. His campaign would not release their totals, saying only that Obama’s dinner invitation garnered more than 35,000 responses.

  54. Mornin’ everybody, or afternoon, wherever ya are, I am so pleased to see those Ras. numbers keep climbin’ for Hillary. I am delighted that Hillary’ “do lunch” campaign has raised so much and I hope they keep on doing this sort of thing. It’s a great way for people to get involved in watchin the campaign and their candidate. I loved the publicity over Ron and Michelle. I could watch that clip over and over of Bill and Hillary talkin to Ron’s family. This is the sort of thing that reaches out to real people. And I would keep that focus. Just like everything else Bomber has tried, this deal with OW is gonna backfire or not help him. IT was well publicized in 2005 when Hill gave that “founder award” to Oprey at the international emmy’s that Oprey said,” i hope you will do us all the priviledge and run for President of the united states.” ore words very close to that effect. Oh well, so much for loyalty. Oprey is off my xmas card list and I’m over it. I been walkin around my little town with a Hillary bumper sticker and my Hillary buttons invitin’ people into conversation. I always have a pocket full of Hillary buttons in case somebody gets excited when they see me and tell me they will support her. We will prevail…We will prevail. Hillary is 44. –mollyj

  55. Oprah does not even vote in primaries so no need to worry about her. She will soon enough be a big Hillary supporter.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/sweet/546340,CST-NWS-sweet07.article

    “If Winfrey, who will host a fund-raiser for Obama on Saturday on the grounds of her Santa Barbara mansion, votes for Obama in the February Illinois Democratic primary, it will be the first time she cast a ballot in a presidential primary since at least 1988, according to her voting record on file with the Chicago Board of Elections.”

  56. Gorto, that is a hard one to answer in the abstract.
    If it were simply a matter of meeting, providing information and setting the record staight that would be one thing. But given the negative predisposition of the group, and past refusal to examine the facts, that is not the most likely scenario. Hillary’s appearance at the netroot convention may provide some insight, and she did well there, but I am not sure that is even the right parallel. I have seen meetings like this work, and I have seen them go sideways. The critical factor is ground rules, and the integrity of the group leader, and how much they have had to drink.

  57. I agree, it could go both ways, but I’m not suggesting a meeting….as much as just to go over to the people standing outside the event, and say hello and shake their hands. As I’m sure most of them would be caught by surprise, and pleasantly so.
    But I know there can be risks by doing so….

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