Autumn Leaves

Well we made it.  It’s September. Hillary is ever closer to the nomination.

The traditional start of political campaigns, on Labor Day weekend, is here.

The voting might will begin in a few short months.

The excuses from other candidates and their supporters as to why their campaigns have failed are laid bare.

No longer can the claim be made that election season is too far away and that polls are irrelevant.

With the arrival of Autumn, those Summer dreams must be left behind.

Lady Fortune teased Barack Obama ever so briefly early in the year and tormented Edwards.

The Associated Press wrote today of the static nature of the campaign.  Hillary has been ahead and remains in the lead.   

Soon candidates will begin to abandon their efforts to gain the nomination as they realize the full extent of Hillary’s lead and popularity. 

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22 thoughts on “Autumn Leaves

  1. We are utilizing this weekend to try and improve the site. We want the posting of comments with links to appear with less of a delay without endangering the security of the site.

    Not much success thus far, but we continue to try.

  2. I am not happy with Clinton campaign’s decision to sign that silly pledges. It sends a terrible signal to FL and MI. Strategically speaking, it’s also a big mistake. Iowa consists of many old white male, and nobody can predict what’s going to happen in this quirky state.

    Clinton campaign’s strategists are overconfident, they need FL and MI as firefall.

    Howard Dean is an Obama hack, he’s rather throw the general election away than give a fair share to FL. Idiotic Washington hack! I hope Clinton will get rid of Howard Dean ASAP.

  3. Howard Dean is lame. Terry McAuliffe did a much better job raising money and everything else. But the nutroots love him, I guess because he said “Power to the People” a few times. I never quite got the buzz, kind of like Edwards and Obama. I was wondering about that pledge? Sounds like a bad idea.

  4. Forget Florida and Michigan jumping the gun. That could have been handled with a slap on the wrist reduction in their delegates, which is what the RNC is doing…not barring the candidates from participating.

    There’s a much bigger portion of the iceberg under the surface. Many people in the party (including the Clintonistas, Rahm Emmanuel, etc.) have openly stated that they think Howard Dean is incompetent and spinning his wheels at the DNC. Dean has catered to the “grassroots” crowd and is viewed as being a failure at professional major league operations required to win national presidential elections (data mining, microtargeting voter databases, etc.) The Republicans have been killing the Dems since 2002 and Dean is seen as more interested in paying for three college interns in the state party offices in Mississippi than in doing this essential infrastructure building.

    Here’s an article on the database that Harold Ickes has built:

    A group of well-connected Democrats led by a former top aide to Bill Clinton is raising millions of dollars to start a private firm that plans to compile huge amounts of data on Americans to identify Democratic voters and blunt what has been a clear Republican lead in using technology for political advantage.

    The effort by Harold Ickes, a deputy chief of staff in the Clinton White House and an adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), is prompting intense behind-the-scenes debate in Democratic circles. Officials at the Democratic National Committee think that creating a modern database is their job, and they say that a competing for-profit entity could divert energy and money that should instead be invested with the national party.

    Ickes and others involved in the effort acknowledge that their activities are in part a vote of no confidence that the DNC under Chairman Howard Dean is ready to compete with Republicans on the technological front. “The Republicans have developed a cadre of people who appreciate databases and know how to use them, and we are way behind the march,” said Ickes, whose political technology venture is being backed by financier George Soros.

    Here’s another, that details more of the dislike between the Clinton and Dean camps:

    During a recent appearance on “The Daily Show,” Jon Stewart asked Howard Dean about his controversial “50-state strategy,” under which the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is allocating significant resources to parties in red states as well as blue ones. How many states, Stewart wanted to know, do critics of Dean’s strategy want the Democrats to focus on? Dean replied, “If they had their choice, probably one–New York.”

    If that was a shot at Hillary Clinton, consider it retaliation. Even before Dean took over the DNC in February 2005, Washington-based Democratic operatives, some aligned with Clinton’s presidential campaign, tossed around the idea of trying to sideline Dean in 2008 by creating a position called “general chairman” and appointing Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell to fill it. The putsch was quickly abandoned–Dean had built too much loyalty among the DNC’s 447 members to make the plan viable–but Clinton’s backers remain determined to prevent a man they view as a loose cannon from undermining their bid for the White House.

    Clinton’s camp is seeking to change this landscape. Its strategy appears to be twofold. First, it is laying the groundwork to circumvent the DNC in the event that Clinton wins the nomination. Her advisers see Dean as a maverick, and they want to depend on him as little as possible during the general election. “The DNC is going to be peripheral,” says one Clinton strategist. “We are going to have our own field staff, starting way before the primaries begin, right through November 7.” He points out that she is prepared to reject public financing during the primaries and the general election. (Clinton does not lack for money: She has raised $32.2 million for her Senate reelection and has $22 million in the bank–all transferable to her presidential campaign, according to PoliticalMoneyLine.) This would allow her to keep the field staff she develops during the primaries on her payroll during the general election–instead of shifting it to the DNC, as previous candidates have done. Plus, in a move widely and correctly interpreted as a rebuke to Dean, Clinton strategist Harold Ickes recently established a private voter database to compete with a similar database being built by the DNC. Ickes’s move–as well as Clinton’s formidable array of experienced advisers, including Terry McAuliffe, Howard Wolfson, James Carville, Mark Penn, and others–will give Clinton added independence from the DNC.

    And more:

    According to “The Thumpin’,” an upcoming book by Naftali Bendavid on the 2006 contest, the attack on Dean was instigated by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and executed by a former Clinton White House aide, Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the Democrat from Chicago who led the congressional campaign committee.

    “They’re not phone banking, they’re not doing anything. … They’ve burned cash,” Emanuel griped to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, the book recounts. “They couldn’t find their ass with both hands tied behind their back.”

    When the campaign was over, two Clinton intimates – consultant James Carville and pollster Stan Greenberg – went public with more complaints, with Carville declaring that Dean should be fired.

    “Howard Dean’s leadership is Rumsfeld-ian in its incompetence,” Carville said.

    So, needless to say, I think there is ample background to suggest that Dean is firmly in the anybody-but-Clinton column. It’s important to keep that in mind as you view these little DNC dances. Note that Dean’s major consulting firm at the DNC is Blue State Digital, the outfit that created the 1984 ad used to kick off the Obama campaign.

    It’s also important to remember that Dean’s detractors are the only people to have elected a Democratic president in the last 30 years.

  5. great artical kostner. i remember in 2005 when dean started puttting dnc staff in red states like mississippi. didn’t paul begala derided that plan at the time?”wasting dnc staffers picking their noses in mississippi” a joke. no democrat is winning states like that.

  6. Some good news anyway. Willie Brown, former San Francisco Mayor head of California State Assembly, and a prominent and respected African American says Barack is too inexperienced to be president and Hillary will be our next President, according to Just Hillary. com.

  7. i could not find n endorsement from willlie brown on justhillary. is there an exact link? brown backing her would be big

  8. My office move on Friday and Saturday, and I’ve been out of commission. Just checking in. Kostner, the move to skip the upstart states probably is an effort to ingratiate herself with the traditional first primaries. This system is hopelessly broken. But they will hobble through it, and in four years, when it happens again, they will act surprised.

  9. kostner, I don’t think Hillary had much of a choice. Here’s what the article from yesterday says:

    “Despite leading her rivals in those states, Clinton campaign officials reluctantly agreed to abide by the pledge because the risk of antagonizing activists in Iowa and New Hampshire by refusing to do was too great.”

    It’s not that her campaign is overconfident; they just couldn’t be the only one left out. I’m not fond of the pledge myself, to be honest.

  10. And if this really is an effort by Dean to help the other candidates, then she’ll have to find a way to deal with it. And I’m sure she will.

  11. Hey y’all, Hope everybody is havin’ a happy, restful labor day weekend. I think the fault with this business as some of you have already pointed out is Howard Dean and ineffective leadership–That was a very insightful article yesterday that was posted about the lack of an adequate database. Doesn’t sound like Dean has been too effective and also sounds like he’s got some bias goin’ for him. Well, our girl has to do what’s going to serve the greater good. I sure don’t like that pledge either, but I am sure there’s more goin’ on behind the scenes than I know about.

    Seems like the BOMBA people are a little quieter on the big bogs comped to Breck Boy’s folks. I’ve had it with that two faced hypocrite with his mansion, haircuts, and rhetoric about “I remember where I come from” (therefore the size of my carbon footprint doesn’t matter). In other words, I earned the right to use all the resources I want. Well I will quit my ranting and
    try and do some writin’ later this weekend for our girl. –mollyj

  12. mollyj…:

    I agree….that breck girl group is getting on my nerves! His kossakcs supporters think
    tht one reson is choose him because he is HANDSOME!
    there you go…..these nutkooks cannot even think of 10 reasons to votes him besides his
    looks.

    Says a lot about the intellect of that voting group!

  13. Edwards supporters on the blogs, from my observations, fall into one of two categories: (1) dumb as a rock; or (2) earth-meltingly angry.

  14. kostner,

    “I am not happy with Clinton campaign’s decision to sign that silly pledges. It sends a terrible signal to FL and MI”

    It would however, be to Senator Clinton’s advantage, as if both states proceed with their primaries anyway, and none of the candidates campaign there, she would likely win both primaries by large margins.

  15. Texan for Hillary–I have been out all day, just signed in and saw your posting. I saw the Willie Brown quote last night on a streaming entry at the top of the Just Hillary website. Haven’t seen any more on it since, but I did see it. I will see if I can find some other reference to it. Sorry, I do not have a link I can point you to.

  16. Texan4Hillary-couldn’t find it through Google, so I have sent email to the Just Hillary, asking for the media source where that statement can be found. I will let you know what, if anything, I hear back. Best regards.

  17. Recognition of delegate is a function of the rules committee
    of the convention and not the dnc. A ruling by the rules
    committee can be brought to the floor and the delegates
    recognized and seated. It is to Hillarys advantage to have
    a simple majority of delegates on the floor to ensure FL
    and MI participation.

    As I have written before, this is the last year for Iowa and New
    Hampshire. Let them enjoy it. If Hillary or a democrat wins
    they we play the game again in ’12, but come ’16. A national/
    regional primary will be in place.

    The convention precess is the last vestige of a bygone era. In the future it will be a ratification convention. The platform will
    be that of the leading candidate and a bunch of speeches. No
    intrige, just a five day party signifying nothing.

    I’ve been there and done that.

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