The Coming Obama Whine

Before the Obama crackup when voting begins in the primaries – there will be the Obama whine.

The Obama whine will come soon – the moment the Chicago sleepyheads put down their mud buckets, read a newspaper, and realize the calendar is moving, like a great wall of clouds, against their inept and inexperienced campaign.

Back in June 23, 2007, almost 2 months ago, and even earlier on May 29, 2007 we ridiculed Obama’s strategy of having his wife call him a lunkhead as well as the strategy of holding ostentatiously huge rallies. Eventually the Obama Chicago dullards realized Michelle should stop the lunkhead talk; and the rallies, either by decision or by voter disinterest, have also ceased.

In the second of those articles, the one called Nader Fader we underlined the failed strategy of the Obama ‘superrallies’ and traced them to Obama’s spiritual mentor – Lord Ralph Nader the Sainted and Pure – Enabler and Creator of the Bush II Presidency. In the first article cited Let’s Help Richardson, Edwards, Obama, Day we noted that Obama needed to retool his campaign. Obama did not listen to our good advice and the results have been as bad as we expected.

What is the situation today and what is the Coming Obama Whine?

Today’s Boston Globe summarizes the shifting and still very fluid situation regarding the primary schedule which will select the Democratic nominee.

Michigan appears poised to crash the party of early states seeking to influence the 2008 presidential nominating process, leapfrogging the other interlopers, Florida and South Carolina, and further scrambling the electoral calendar.

If leaders of Michigan’s political parties reach agreement, as early as tomorrow, on joint Jan. 15 primaries, New Hampshire and Iowa, the traditional leadoff states, would be forced to set earlier contests to preserve their coveted status.

New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary would be moved to Jan. 8 at the latest because state law says that Secretary of State William M. Gardner must set the contest at least seven days ahead of the next primary.

New Hampshire is determined to keep its place as the first primary state.

An earlier Granite State contest would then push Iowa, the first caucus state, into early January or even December.

State law there requires at least eight days between its contest and New Hampshire primary, but Iowa Secretary of State Michael A. Mauro said yesterday that his state could waive that required interval to avoid holding caucuses on New Year’s Eve or earlier, during this year’s holiday season.

Iowa “will do whatever it takes to maintain our status and keep it in January, if at all possible,” he told the Globe in a telephone interview.

Hillary is prepared for whatever happens with the primary calendar. Because Hillary is popular with the Democratic base she has support in every segment and in every geographic area of Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa Hillary has support throughout the state with all Iowans.

And here comes the whine. Obama, and to a lesser extent Edwards, has built his failing campaign under the delusion that students will support Obama at the polls. To that end Obama held his super-rallies geared to a youth audience and in some cases solely with the college networking site Facebook subscribers as the rally organizers. The Obama strategy is in conflict with the current primary calendar. If the primary schedule keeps moving earlier and earlier the universities and colleges of Iowa and New Hampshire will be on vacation when the voting takes place.  

None of this can come as a surprise to the Obama campaign. But they have been silent on the issues relating to the calendar. We suspect that as their campaign collapses they will find in the calendar the ready excuse they will need. They will whine that the calendar robbed them of their organizers and voters. In Iowa, they will yelp that there is no way to caucus absentee.

Depending on how the calendar finally settles students will have to decide whether to return early to or stay late in the icy Jack Frost states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Obama of course thinks he is the sun to the youth vote. The likelihood is that Cancun and Daytona will be a more seductive destination for winter break than canvassing for a lusterless former fad candidate.