Hillary Clinton Sums It Up

There are a lot of great moments from yesterday’s debate which we should not miss. We like how Hillary answered many canards raised by the unthinking supporters of other candidates.

Hillary Clinton is proud of her record and life history. Hillary Clinton knows the Ripublicans will attack any Democrat (remember in 2002 quadriplegic war veteran Max Cleland was shamelessly attacked) and drive up their negatives. Hillary Clinton knows how to beat the Ripublicans.


The transcript from ABC News and the point by point answer by Hillary:

CLINTON: Well, I don’t think Karl Rove’s going to endorse me. That becomes more and more obvious. But I find it interesting he’s so obsessed with me. And I think the reason is because…
(LAUGHTER)

… we know how to win.
I mean, you know, I have been fighting against these people for longer than anybody else up here. I’ve taken them on and we’ve beaten them.

And I’m very excited about my campaign. I had 18 wonderful years in Arkansas. I’ll be there tomorrow, where the governor will be endorsing me.

I’ve had wonderful experiences in upstate New York, where many of the people who voted for me had never voted for a Democrat before.

And you know, the idea that you’re going to escape the Republican attack machine and not have high negatives by the time they’re through with you, I think, is just missing what’s been going on in American politics for the last 20 years.
(APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: And the reason — the reason why we’re going to win is because we have a better vision for America, we know how to bring about change, and I know how to beat them.

So, yes, they’re going to be driving up negatives and making all these comments. Doesn’t matter to me a bit.

What’s important is what’s happening in the lives of the American people. And the kind of change I’m interested in is how we help more Americans get to the American dream.

And that means universal health care. That means new jobs for the middle class with rising incomes. It means what I have fought for, for more than 35 years.

And I am proud of my campaign, and it’s getting better every single day.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Clinton…

CLINTON: So I’m looking forward to going up against whoever the Republicans nominate.

(APPLAUSE)

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91 thoughts on “Hillary Clinton Sums It Up

  1. Instant analysis
    Roby Brock has film with Brummett talking about Hillary Clinton’s gathering momentum.

    Which reminds me. I was surprised to hear that old Arkansas hand, AP’s Ron Fournier, quoted as parroting the popular Beltway media conventional wisdom that Hillary’s high negatives make her a long-shot to carry Arkansas. That’s not what the polls or common sense say.

    Gov. Mike Beebe and Sen. Mark Pryor are two of the most cautious politicians I know. If they are endorsing Hillary — Pryor on the eve of an election — I trust their judgment that they are putting little at risk personally by doing so. (Beebe, in fact, owes Barack Obama a favor for appearing at a successful campaign rally.)

    The state is solidly Democratic — as 2006 election results proved. Hillary Clinton retains a large network of former supporters of her husband and, yes, many friends from her time here. A huge crowd at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner demonstrated this. The Republican Party lacks any commanding leadership figure here. Nobody wants to be associated with the president. Mike Huckabee left the state on something of a sour note (smashed hard drives, house warming gifts, uncertainty about his OBU gig) and without much of an obvious personal organization, judging by his relatively small fund-raising in Arkansas and an absence of anything approaching the teams of Arkansans that went on the road with Bill Clinton in 1992. Recent polling shows Hillary with double-digit leads over leading Republican contenders in Arkansas.

    In short, Hillary should be positioned so well in the rest of the South as she is in Arkansas.

  2. From Chuck Dodd:

    Overall, this is a debate that had “August” written all over it, meaning the candidates decided not to take advantage of opportunities to engage. Instead, at almost every opportunity, the frontrunners took pains to NOT engage even when questions from the moderator tried to create spats. So in the absence of a “moment,” it’s hard not to declare Clinton the winner of this debate because, like boxing, if the champ doesn’t get knocked out, then the champ is still the champ.

    This is not to say Obama and Edwards did poorly in this debate. To the contrary, both seemed more presidential than in previous debates but neither seemed comfortable trying to take down the frontrunner. Edwards and Obama took veiled shots at Clinton but in a way that was, well, “Iowa nice.”

    One glaring missed opportunity for Obama to show contrast with Clinton came, not from a moderator question, but from a voter question who asked about a time when the candidate didn’t say everything they thought. Remember, Clinton critiqued Obama for saying everything he thought. If the places were reversed, Clinton would not have missed an opportunity like that. This is where Obama’s inexperience as a politician shows. He’s just not very tactical, which to some may seem like a refreshing change but in primary politics, isn’t a recipe for success. Frankly, it was a moment of political campaign inexperience. Tactically, these debates do show that Obama hasn’t had many tough campaigns, which may explain why he misses opportunities like this one.

    Overall, Biden seemed to have helped himself the most, followed, surprisingly, by Richardson. Of course, Richardson had a VERY low bar to surpass since he’s been anywhere from bad to disastrous; Richardson was neither bad nor disastrous today.

    All of the candidates seemed well aware that the main audience for this debate was Iowa Democrats and recent history has shown Iowa Democrats don’t like sharp elbows so that may explain some of the cautiousness that gripped the entire Democratic field.

    See the next post for more detailed “tape delayed live-blogging” thoughts as I was watching the debate.

  3. hillary really hit it on the head on that one. the nutkooks, obama, and the anti-hillary forces live in fantasy land if they think all of a sudden if anyone other than hillary will not get the rove/gop slime machine treatment. like rightwingers like hannity, limbuagh, going to endores and caimpaign for obama. these same people who hate hillary will vote the green line and gop no matter whom the dem nominee is. i think it is going to be a generic 52/48 split in the general or 51/48. i would be shocked if it would be a landslide either way.

  4. Politico is reporting Hillary’s Arkansas appearance:

    Beebe to back Clinton

    Hillary Clinton goes back “home” to Little Rock today to pick up an endorsement from Gov. Mike Beebe (and cash from backers, natch).

    He’ll be the third statewide Democrat to stand up for her, after Sen. Mark Pryor announced his support and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel agreed to chair her Arkansas campaign. (Blanche Lincoln has not endorsed anyone yet.)

    Arkansas is obviously a special case, but it does challenge the conventional wisdom that Hillary can’t win in the south, Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times says.

    He points out that polls in the state show she would beat any of the Republicans “by a hefty margin,” even Mike Huckabee, and that Hillary left the state 14 years ago with good approval ratings. Watch to see how much she raises today — and how it compares to one-day Huckabee hauls.

    “The conventional wisdom I’ve heard out of Washington that Arkansas is a tough state for Hillary is like a lot of the conventional wisdom — not very wise,” Max says.

    On the stump in Iowa last week, Obama and Edwards both touted their ability to compete in red states. But if Hillary wins the nomination, she could go on to take the White House just by flipping Arkansas and Virginia — no great challenge with, say, Mark Warner on the ticket with her.

  5. Since I’m the Vet in this group, or at least I
    think I’m the only one, I thought I would
    offer this to you:

    nton tells veterans difficult choices ahead on Iraq
    By DAVE HELLING
    The Kansas City Star

    Hillary Clinton addresses veterans
    McCain offers ringing defense of Iraq war
    More than 3,000 delegates to the VFW convention at Bartle Hall gave Sen. Hillary Clinton a polite and at times warm reception this morning.

    Clinton’s 40-minute address dealt largely with expanding benefits for veterans.

    “I won’t appoint a secretary of veterans affairs, I’ll appoint a secretary for veterans,” she told the delegates.

    Clinton’s speech began about 30 minutes late. She did not mention the war in Iraq until close to the end, when she said the United States faced difficult choices.

    “Some of us disagree,” she said. “I think the best way of honoring their (the troops’) service is bringing them home.”

    She said the counterinsurgency strategy is working, but “we’re just years too late changing our tactics. We can’t ever let that happen again.”

    “We have to win,” she added.

    Veterans interrupted her speech several times with applause, and at least some members stood for an ovation at the end.

    Afterward, Clinton shook hands with delegates. But she was not expected to stay in Kansas City today.

    Sen. John McCain will also address the convention this morning.

    Delegates also saw a taped message from Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of coalition forces in Iraq.

    I have yet to read the transcript. At least
    her appearance was “respectful.”

  6. mj,

    I am also a bit surprised by her choice of word. It sounds like a contorted explantion. If it is ‘working’, why “we’re just years too late changing our tactics. We can’t ever let that happen again.”

    “We have to win,” she added.

    I have to read the transcripts.

  7. Admin,

    Regarding Rove’s attacks, you’re right on. People needs to understand the basis of his attacks.

    Rovian playbook hasn’t changed since 1954 — define your opponents before they have a chance to define themselves.

    The following article from Tompaign.com, which I read this morning, described Rovism in a nutshell.

    commonsense.ourfuture.org/question_aggressive_tactics?tx=3

    I wonder whether the following 3 news events, which took place last week, were coordinated to frame Senator Clinton as too negative to be electable.

    1) Ron Fournier Dems fear Clinton”s negatives AP news release.
    2) Rove’s attacks against Clinton — no President can be elected with such high unfavorability.
    3) Obama’s “I can unite U.S more effectively than Clinton.”

    Rove’s resignation would give maximum press coveage for such a coordinated framing attempt.

    Interestingly, the same kind of framimg was attempted as early as May 2006 by Markos Moulitas in his “Hillary does not appear “electable” article published in Washington Post.

    I say, dear Dems, Know Thine Enemies and their Playbook.

  8. From Today’s New York Times Select, Law Professor, Dean and respected contributor.

    Hillary Clinton’s Other Mate
    Tags: Hillary Clinton

    It’s time to start thinking seriously about Hillary Clinton’s running mate. I know that the first primary is six months away (although the date keeps creeping backwards) and the conventions more than a year away, but this one is over before it’s over. Clinton’s national poll numbers are very high and if they hit 50 percent fence-sitters will climb down and join her ranks. John Edwards isn’t going to catch fire, and Barack Obama has already caught all the fire he is able to ignite. With every day, the small possibility that Al Gore will join the race gets smaller. As for the other candidates, they are either running for vice president or just having

  9. Ok, Kostner thanks. In that piece she sounds spot on, and her honest assessment of the situation in Iraq just demonstrates the kind of level headed competence we need right now.

  10. I noticed during the debate that Hillary was very pointed in announcing that the Governor of Arkansas was endorsing her. I know that it is very important to show that she can flip a red state. Other candidates say they can but that is just speculation. Hillary actually can.

    But then I got to thinking about endorsements in general. Hillary’s campaign has headlined on her website every endorsement she has received. She has been endorsed by several governors, six or seven U.S. Senators, dozens of U.S. Representatives, and dozens upon dozens of state senators and representatives. She has also been endorsed by a lot of mayors. I got to thinking that maybe the reason that Rove is obsessed with her (and he absolutely is) is not only that she can become President because I think that next year is going to be a good year for the Democrats anyway but because of all of her and Bill’s work at unifying the Democratic Party. Isn’t that part of the function that all of these endorsements serve?

    Karl Rove is a hater, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of his life’s dreams was the effective extinction of the Democratic Party. Hillary and Bill build up the Democratic Party. Just a thought.

  11. mark warner is running for the us senate in virginia if the incumbent retires right? jim webb is a good one. richardson is a lousy candidate. physically he does not wear well either. as you know i don’t want the senator from rezko either. maybe a surprize choice.

  12. Rove was attacking Hillary’s health Care record on MTP yesterday. I think this was another attempt at framing Hillary as the wrong person to fix Health Care.

    Hillary.com has a great rebutal against this smear today.

    It may be a good idea to publish this rebuttal in as many blogs as possible. I don’t have the time or the skill to debate on blogs. Alegre at DailyKos may be the best person for posting Hillary’s Health Care records.

    I think the best way to fight against their framing attempts is to REBUT, REBUT, REBUT and broadcast the rebutal to as many people as possible.

  13. HG, the rebuttal is up there right now. Beverly Fox did a good job with it. Of course pro-Hillary posts never make it to the big board there.

  14. mj,

    Thank you! I’ll go over there and read Berkerly Vox’s Diary.

    And, Berkerley, Thank you very much! 🙂

  15. From Staff to HG,

    Rove is and always has been a bully. that is his sole attribute. The Dems did not confront the bully and feared the bully. Big mistake by Dems. Note to children and Democrats: Do not fear bullies, Fight bullies.

    Rove short history is that he was a college ripublican bully who went to work for bully Lee Atwater. Rove tried to bully the Dems in 2000 with a very bad campaign. Rove tried to fool Gore into putting resources into California and New Jersey. This stupid strategy meant that Rove/Bush did not put the resources where they were really needed – Florida. This stupidity from the NOT genius Rove cost Bush the popular vote in 2000 (and we think the election too).

    Dems did not confront Rove in 2004 either and his manipulation of voting machines and other shady acts to get Bush the presidency yet again.

    In 2006, just before the election, Rove kept on predicting that Dems would not get either house of Congress – Dems in fact did win both houses of congress.

    Rove is a bully idiot who found his ventriloquist dummy in George Bush. Rove decorated his stupidity with talk of Bush being a transformational president and blah blah like McKinley… blah blah, realighnment…, blah blah Mark Hannah… blah blah.

  16. terrondt,

    We need to keep our eyes on the primary ball, but speculation of V.P. can be fun in a boring day.

    I agree with you on Richardson. He does not look good, I mean physically, LOL. I know this is a bit tacky, but these things do matter in a presidential run.

    I also believe he’s even more a loose than O-bomb.

    I’m ruling Richardson out.

  17. Hey y’all, I do think Hillary can do very well in southern states if she can get some key endorsements. The Arkansas governor has endorsed her. The former Ark gov said some kind things, too. Hillary did a really good thing yesterday in remembering those in the women’s movement and civil rights movement as being her inspiration. This will not only position her as carrying the torch of change…but her roots, in Arkansas, connected her with people who were important both in the civil rights and women’s rights movements in that state. Of course, she has her own very wide network in Arkasas as well. It also doesn’t hurt at all in the south, in general, that Billy Graham was recently quoted as saying some very nice things about her. As I recall, once not too awfully long ago, Bill Clinton introduced the Rev Graham and when Billy G. went to the podium he said something to the effect of Bill Clinton’s wife “doing the governing” Does anybody remember that quote? I saw it on television and can’t remember if it was the news or not. The polls I saw show Hill polling very well in Arkansas. She’ll take the state, i predict. –mollyj

  18. I agree HG on rebuttin’: REBUT, REBUT, REBUT. Somebody told a friend of mine that Hillary brought about managed care. Damn that Karl Rove. I wonder who’s gonna pay him to lead the hit squad. mollyj

  19. I do wonder if Obama will be able to surf on his ‘change’ theme all through this campaign.
    Others have tried to use it as well, but mostly it seems to stick on him, which is annoying because what can constitute for a better change from Bush, then to elect someone who is actually qualified for the job? Namely Hillary!!

    She is basically the opposite from Bush, experienced and qualified to BE President. I can’t wait for the next Iowa poll!!

  20. I have now read the Atlantic Magazine article on Karl Rove. It sheds new light on the role he has played in American politics. Essentially, it describes how he tried to use the levers of government to try to create a permanent Republican majority, and how his efforts produced failure for his party and our country. Also, it suggests answers to why the Bush Adminitration has pushed certain laws with a vengence, while abdicating its sworn responsibilites on others. Main stream media should be treating this guy like a pariah, rather than a celebrity. Whatever he says about Hillary and the democratic party should be seen by all for what it is: as the machinations of a rutheles power obsessed political operative run riot. I recommend this article as an omen of things to come unless you really believe he is moving to Jeb’s home state for the weather and he will simply fade away after this grand finale like an old soldier.

  21. What qualifies Hillary, in part, is her successful record as a change agent. ‘least that’s the way I see it. –mollyj

  22. WaPo: Michigan likely to move primary up to Jan 15

    “The leaders of Michigan’s political parties are in negotiations today to pick a date for their state’s presidential primary, a move which could force Iowa to move its primary into December.

    Reports over the weekend suggested that Democrats had picked Jan. 15 as the date for their primary, and Republicans quickly said they agreed.

    In a posting on the Michigan GOP website, party chair Saulius “Saul” Anuzis said that “Although going on January 15th is not our first choice, we will join with the Democrats and hold our primary on the same day. This puts Michigan front and center in the presidential battle ground.”

    But Jason Moon, a spokesman for the Michigan Democratic Party said today that Democrats have not agreed to a specific date with their Republican rivals. “The two state party chairs are in negotiations,” Moon said. “There is no agreement. I can just tell you that.”

    To confuse things even more, Liz Boyd, a spokeswoman for Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm confirmed this morning that Democrats had agreed to an “early presidential primary” during a conference call last Friday.”We’re not commenting on a date,” she said.

  23. Admin, I agree with you about Rove. He had zero to do with the 1994 Contract with America gang that made the last 6 years of hell under Bush happen. He just managed his candidate well and had Karen Hughes and Joe Albaugh do major damage control years in advance. Remember how they sunk Dan Rather??? Not only did they get rid of the bimbo implosion scenario, they got rid of the drugs, etc.. Although I do recall one video at Maine where Bush was drinking a Bud Light and he was supposed to have been sober by then… Rove is and will always be a weenie failure, and not the Grand Poobah of Rethuglican politics. I think Newt Gingrich owns that distinction.

    MJ, I think Hillary had great timing but I didn’t think it intentional on the women’s movement and mom answer.

    And as I sit here watching Hardball, I am struck by Bwak No-Bomb-A’s answer in which he states he thinks it requires “building a new majority, getting new people involved in the process….” is his attempt to save face and go Independent in the next election. Watch him go with an offshoot of Sam Waterston group or something similar. BO will end up being the cult of personality used to create a viable third party. Face it. He has no choice. He can’t be in the GOP- he’s black and his dad was Muslim and he also lived with a white woman (FWIW nothing wrong with those things but GOP voters aren’t known for embracing race or religion differences in others), and he’s second fiddle to Hillary for at least the next eight years in the Democratic party, so his quickest chance at POTUS is using his monied connections in Hollywood and maybe Bloomberg and go Independent. He’s toast in this race and he smells and looks like fear…..

    Terrondt, I still think Hillary’s top three choices are Evan Byah, Mark Warner and Tom Vilsack. Webb is too much of a loose cannon and there’s the whole gun charge thing too.

  24. OkieAtty,

    There is no chance that Obama will pair up w/ Bloomberg. In fact, if Bloomberg runs, hand the GE to Hillary.

    The depositions taken for his multiple sexual harassment charges will send moderate Republican women straight to Hillary. For example: he believes that rape victims should be taken seriously only if there’s an “unimpeachable third-party witness.”

  25. As far as his comments on building a majority are concerned — I have heard him in person — he is a Dem team player all the way. He’ll continue to build the party. In 8 yrs, he’ll only be 54.

  26. What are the implications of MI as an early state?

    Can’t help but notice that it only takes a little over one hour to get to MI from Chicago, IL.

  27. Hillary would bring new voters in as well. Young women, and single women, will come in to vote for one of their own From the polls I’ve read, he doesn’t even lead Hillary in Dem leaning mods. Well, I guess he has to make a case for himself.

  28. Kostner or admin: What do you think the chances are in this quarter to beat Obama in the money game? That would be a devastating blow to his campaign: to be so far behind in the polls and and lose his one calling card.

  29. HillaryLandRocks, I meant Bwak hookup money and power-wise with Bloomberg, not actually run as a team. I think we’re all aware of Bloomberg proclivities and he wouldn’t last 10 minutes before the media got a hold of him on those lawsuits and dissected his business(es).

  30. Kostner,
    Richardson for VP? No way!!!! Not just because the guy doesn’t look good but he is such a loser!!!

  31. Berkeley — is that the poll where Gore actually comes in first when included? I have to say that bothered me.

  32. DCDemocrat — That Oprah fundraiser is really going to give Obama a nice lift. I read that 250 received 7 tickets each to sell. That’s just over 4 mill (if you assume $2300/ea) for one evening.

    Don’t know how the Magic fundraiser will stack up against that.

    I recall reading a few months ago that a lot of Silicon Valley heavy-hitters were waiting to see if Gore would get in but would otherwise pony up for Obama. Hope they’ve changed their minds.

  33. Hey y’all when and where are these fundraisers? I thought Oprah was having hers before the LGBT forum? –mollyj

  34. BREAKING:

    Can somebody diary this on dailykos immediately. A new Zogby Iowa poll shows a big big jump for Hillary!!! Wow. Go to Zobgy site.

    Aug 17 (may 15)
    Clinton 30 (24)
    Edwards 23 (26)
    Obama 19 (22)
    Richardson 10 (6)

    Wow

  35. NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Poll: Hillary Clinton Makes Big Move to Lead Democratic Pack
    NewsMax.com
    Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2007
    Hillary’s move in Iowa mirrors her national gains as others fade; Bill helps her cause.

    After months of nipping at the heels of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards among likely Iowa Democratic caucus–goers, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has made a move to the top of the heap in the race for her party’s presidential nomination, a new NewsMax/Zogby telephone poll shows.

    Clinton’s move up in Iowa replicates what she has done nationally, building a powerhouse campaign and benefiting in part from the positive opinions of her husband, the survey shows.

    Clinton leads with 30% support, followed by Edwards at 23% and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 19%. She added six points to her column since the last Zogby Iowa polling in May, while Edwards and Obama have each lost three points during the same time period.

    The Zogby telephone survey was conducted August. 17–19, 2007, and included 503 likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa. The margin of error is +/– 4.5 percentage points.

    Among women – a key demographic for Clinton, who could be the first woman elected President – she expands her lead a bit, taking support from Edwards, while Obama remains static. She wins 35% support among females, while Obama wins 19% and Edwards collects backing from 17%.

    NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Poll

    Democrats
    Aug. 17th
    May 15
    March 26
    Jan. 16

    Clinton
    30%
    24%
    25%
    16%

    Edwards
    23%
    26%
    27%
    27%

    Obama
    19%
    22%
    23%
    17%

    Richardson
    10%
    6%
    3%
    1%

    Biden
    3%
    4%
    3%
    3%

    Kucinich
    1%
    1%
    1%
    1%

    Dodd

  36. Hillary needs at 3 other Iowa polls with
    similary numbers to comfirm a lead. Since
    most Iowa polls have been all over the
    place, it is a wait and see situation.

    I hope it doesn’t have to be a long wait.

  37. Oregon Poll:

    Voters also solidly supported Clinton, with 26 percent saying they’d vote for her in the coming presidential primary. Another 18 percent support Barack Obama, while 30 percent of Democratic voters are undecided. John Edwards earned support from 17 percent.

    Clinton’s lead decreased from a March Riley Research poll, when she won support from 31 percent. Obama’s overall numbers are down from the 21 percent he collected in March. Edwards’ support doubled from 8 percent in the last five months.

  38. You know, I watched the debate and I don’t think Obama did very well making the case for himself. Yes, he got in a few digs on Hillary, but in my view, he didn’t make the case for himself. I wonder if some are suggesting he did well because he set expectations so low by coming out on Saturday saying he wasn’t going to do more debates.

  39. Kegs, that is so disappointing about Oregon. I wonder why her lead is decresing there. On the other hand, she is in the lead and Edwards is headed toward taking over Obama.

  40. Obama does not seem to realize how popular Hillary and Bill Clinton are among Democrats and African-Americans in particular. Obama needs to have a talk with Maya Angelou, Quincy Jones, Magic Johnson as well as the African American populations in Brooklyn, Arkansas, and every other jurisdiction in the U.S. Maybe he should drop by Silvia’s in Harlem or visit Bill in his Harlem office.

    Obama also needs to read up on the “backlash” effect. Obama also has to acquaint himself with polls showing Hillary winning the youth vote.

    Obama’s latest: http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2007/08/20/obama_says_black_voter_turnout_will_shoot_up_if_he_is_the_democratic_presidential_nominee/

    Barack Obama predicted that black voter turnout would swell by at least 30 percent if he wins the presidential nomination, giving Democrats victory in Southern states that have been voting Republican for decades.

    “I’m probably the only candidate who having won the nomination can actually redraw the political map,” Obama told a Democratic voter skeptical that he could defeat a Republican candidate.

    “I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I’m the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum,” Obama said. “Young people’s percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we’re in a position to put states in play that haven’t been in play since LBJ.”

  41. MJ, I wouldn’t worry about Oregon. It is a
    fickled place for the last 30 years. It
    can’t make up its mind. It has a large
    enviromental community v. a very strong
    independent nature. They are often in
    conflict. The Edwards number was under
    reported in the previous polls. Oregon
    seems to be a rare state with so many
    undecided. I suspect, that is the hidden
    Gore vote. This is the only state where
    Gore would probably win outright.
    When it comes close to voting, I think
    each of the top three will each get 10 pts.

  42. Admin, BO thinks that bring out the black
    southern vote will help him in a GE. He
    fails to understand that there is residual
    racism in the South. Intolerant whites
    will come out in record numbers as well.
    His campaign doesn’t realize that Repub
    growth in the south only occurred with
    the civil legislation under LBJ. The Repubs
    grew because conservative and racist
    Democrats left the party. Mississippi
    remembers the fight over what was the
    legitimate delegation in the ’72 convention.
    If my memory serves me, it was in ’72.
    The Mississippi freedom Democrats viz a viz
    the “regular” Democratic Pary. Time has
    past but not the resentment.

  43. Admin, what would the Indiana pols who
    are often cited, in the Hillary can’t win and
    drag on the ticket, think if Evan Bayh was
    on the ticket? How would they feel.
    Somehow, I think this is a plea for Bayh’s
    consideration on a national ticket be it
    Hillary or BO.

  44. From staff to Kegs,

    you describe very well the ugly “backlash” effect. There was some very good polling done on the Harold Ford race which made a very strong case for the backlash effect and the very strong racisim which hurt Ford. If Ford had won, Obama today would have a case to make. At the time of the Ford race in fact, there were several articles which tied Ford’s fate to the likelihood of Obama entering the race. After Ford lost, there were no follow-up articles on how the results in Tennessee hurt Obama. Maybe one of our Big Media readers will decide to do something about this and write an article.

    As to Indiana, you are a sly one.

    You hit the nail on the head. This is probably Bayh partisans who know the squeaky wheel gets the grease. There have been several articles which quote Indiana officials complaining about down ballot races.

    Indiana has not voted for a Democratic nominee since 1964. Bayh might turn that around but as we wrote a while back on the veepstakes, we would trust the Hillary Team to do some polling on a Bayh effect in winning Indiana. If Bayh would bring Indiana into the Dem column Bayh has a strong case for being on the ticket. If not…

  45. Edwards withdraw from Nevada:

    From the Washington Post

    “Nevada: More Bad News for Edwards
    Less than a week after former Sen. John Edwards’ (D-N.C.) campaign acknowledged it was moving some staff out of Nevada and into other early primary states, a key staffer in the state has left his post.

    Preston Elliott, who had been serving as Edwards’ field director in Nevada, is leaving that post to become the deputy political director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, according to an e-mail forwarded to The Fix.

    The departure is sure to stoke rumors that Edwards is not seriously contesting the Nevada caucus, which was added to the early nominating calendar in 2006 by the Democratic National Committee.”

  46. I preceive some good news for Democrats
    in Nebraska. Bob Kerry is considering leaving
    the New School and return to Nebraska
    to seek a Senate seat. He is waiting for
    Hegel to make up his mind whether to seek
    reelection.

  47. Staff, Indiana has been out of the political
    loop for so long. With Evan on the ticket
    it may not carry the state but it would
    prevent leakage that would hurt the party.

    Not since Birch Bayh sought the presidency
    was Indiana a player.

    I remember, Evan standing in the corner of
    his father campaign headquarters in Washington
    taking in all of the adoration of his supporters
    and the tears when he announced to them
    that he was going to suspend his campaign.
    I personally feel, Evan’s conservatism was
    born that day. I think he vowed then to
    move to the center or center right in order to
    be viable in politics.

  48. If any computer game person out there
    want to make a fortune, they should
    make a game: Election ’08: Ron Paul
    v. Dennis Kucinich. I would even buy it.

  49. Admin I like the article you linked to, especially this quote:

    “Another voter later told Obama because of his lack of experience, “by any stretch of the imagination, it would be a leap of faith to vote for you.”

    hehe, I love how people just say it to his face! 🙂

  50. hi guys. very tired so im going to crash unusually early and quickly this morning. anyway love the new zogby iowa poll showing hillary with a real lead. at least it’s just off the press other than that old poll abc is touting. anway have a great day hill fans. i will be on later this afternoon. GO HILLARY GO!!!!

  51. admin,

    Just read the Boston Globe article. Wow, Obama is crazy. I don’t believe democrats can reply his path to the white house by winning MS and George. Come on, this is completely fuzzy math.

    The way he talks polls is just bad. He acts like a pundit…

  52. Gee, maybe Obama is right but I think he is going way overboard about his ability to redraw the map. Hillary is a woman. She’ll bring in new voters too.

  53. I wonder where Mr. Obama gets his turnout data from. Last year, African American turnout was down nationwide, and in TN specifically, it was measured as down 1.2 percentage points, or flat within the margin of error. (Source: 2006 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement)

    Granted, the year-to-year comparisons are non-presidential election years, but if I were considering his argument of a 30% boost in states like MS, SC, etc, I’d want a little more than his good word even before calculating a potential backlash effect.

    I thought it very interesting that the ‘movement’ candidate basically talked about … himself, while the others, (Biden, Clinton) invoked bona fide movements in response to the last debate question in IA on Sunday.

  54. mj,

    This is crazy math. AA turnout is always high compared to other ethnic group. Yeah, he will probably increase that even more, but it’s on the margin at best. To claim you can increase the turnout by 20-30% while assuming the turnout among other groups remain flat is completely nuts. We Hillary supporters, know she can increase turnout among women, but we are not that stupid. It’s not going to be 20 to 30 percent.

    He needs to find a new pollster. Maybe we should pose his comments on pollster dot com and let real pollsters to debunk his myth. Looks like O.B. not only inherits Karl Rove’s dirty tactics, but also his ‘math’.

    LOL.

  55. If you didn’t think the assault by Rove and his
    ilk on Hillary isn’t orchestrated, check out
    Townhall.com and the American Spectator.
    The have articles that attack Hillary like
    as one put it. Whe is Captain Queeg of the
    “Mutainy on the Bounty” fame. The other as
    surrendering America. While all democratic candidates offer similar views, they assail
    Hillary personally, not just politically.

    While BO plays in the sand box, our “gal” is
    in the majors. There is no doubt the campaign
    is fully engaged. The GOP knows who
    their strongest opponent is and it is not a he.

  56. Good morning, all! 🙂

    The excellent new poll numbers reported this morning confirmed my gut feeling that the strategies Obama employed last week would backfire.

    Democrats aren’t buying Obama’s assertion that he is the UNITER. We aren’t buying Obama’s assertion that “Bush is not solely to blame.” I am a typical member of the Democratic base. I resented very much Obama’s throwing us Dems under the bus, blaming us equally with the Ripublicans for the mess our country is in.

    Make no mistake, we are fighting for the control of the Whitehouse and the Leadeship of the Free World. Our current problems are not caused by a lack of unity between the Dems and the Ripublicans. The opposite is true — it’s too much unity and compromises with the Ripublicans. We want a leader that can FIGHT against the Ripublicans. We want CHANGE and not more compromises with the Ripublicans.

    The reason that Obama offered in support of his claim that he would be better at uniting the country is flawed and we Dems can see through it. The reason that he gave — that Senator Clinton has too many battle scars from 15 years of fighting against the rightwing — is flawed for the following reasons: 1) It is politically incorrect to blame a victim. A person should NEVER be diminished and disqualified for being a victim of the rightwing attacks and for bearing scars from the victimization. 2) Again, make no mistake we are in a battle for the control of the Whitehouse and the Leadership of the Free World. Who would be more qualified to lead in this battle? A General with 15 years of fighting against the same opponent and won and has the battle scars to prove for it or a rookie who wants to sing kumbaya with the opponent?

  57. Obama messed up bigtime by using the term “uniter.” If he’s so big into polls, he should have hired someone to scope out that term because it is a giant joke. Bush used it repeatedly and in turn the term now means- partisan bickering, stonewalling, my way or the highway, questioning folks’ patriotism.

    Smooth move, Bwak. Are you trying to lose this race??

    And what’s with the move on Cuba policy this morning? I don’t think that BO has even so much as had a Cuban sandwich let alone has a deep understanding of Florida/Cuba politics. He cannot win the GE with that type of talk. The Cuban commuity leaders will now back anyone but him and that’s a considerable voting and funding block. Put FL in Hillary’s column.

    BTW- anyone have any numbers on Jewish support of candidates right now? Part of me wonders if conservative Jews will back a man with Muslim family members (a legitimate concern as a candidate). I could see AIPAC questioning his credentials. That could effect him greatly in NY and FL in a GE.

  58. http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/article/view/?id=2943

    Mornin’ folks, I swear it’s always interestin’ wakin’ up in the mornin’ seeing what crazy things BO has been up to. He is nuts. And yes, he does sound like he belongs in pundit-land more than the executive branch of the government. Except we need to add a course in basic statistics to the one he’s got to take in geography and international relations.

    Meanwhile, the next President of the United States was back in her home country yesterday bein’ embraced by folks in Arkansas. Great AP article posted on Hillary Hub touting experience and change! Thank you! Yes, she has been a change agent for a number of years and it’s about time that history lesson got translated into the press. I think it gets downplayed because of the fact that she is a uniter, as well. But she did a great job yesterday of showing it’s not change or experienc—-with her it’s both.

    RE Oregon: we need some campaignin’ in the pacific NW. I think they’ll come around to Hillary but are conflicted by seemingly more liberal candidates…I have friends in Portland that I will talk with…Wish Hillary could make a swing out this way…but I know of course there are other priorities initially.

    Good news all around this mornin’, with numbers in Iowa and all. She’s on a roll……..mollyj

  59. can somebody write a diary on the lastest Iowa poll on dailykos? Those nuts are still burying their heads in the sand. They need some shock-and-awe from time to time.

  60. OkieAtty:

    I don’t think the jewish vote in the up coming
    primary will be unified.

    BO will take a hit for “talking with Iran” stance.
    Hillary will take hit for “kissing” Arafat’s wife
    and Bills preceived failing in the peace talks.
    The jewish community is split between
    preserving Israel and the “equality and civil
    rights” struggles of a generation ago.
    The general election will be a different set
    of issues all together

  61. A Pat Murphy endorsement is minor compared
    to Joe Sestaks endorsement of Hillary.
    Murphy’s district is evenly divided. It is a
    bedroom community and tends to swing back
    and forth. He runs the risk of ticking off middle
    class women who are extremely active in that district. Sestak endorsed Hillary. His district,
    often votes incumbent regularly, they view
    “Clinton” as an extension of Bill’s terms in office.

  62. On myDD, there’s a diary that uncovers Obama’s fuzzy math of winning MS, and GA.
    Please recommend. Somebody pulls out exit polling data to refute those ridiculous claim.

    Devastating.

  63. For Oregon and Washington states, I agree, more campigning needs to be done;
    Bill was in Wshington state while Hillary has nor even gone there…sometime she needs to do that.

  64. mp,

    Oregon and Washington are meaingless, they are pretty late. I wouldn’t sweat a bit even if Edwards/Obama polling 100% there.

    BTW, I’m surprised that this M.O’s comments have finally caught fire. We’ve been talking about this for a few days. According to talkingpointsmemo:

    A mini-skirmish erupted this morning in the Democratic Primary after the Chicago Sun Times quoted Michelle Obama saying the following at a recent campaign stop:

    “If you can’t run your own house, you can’t run the White House.”

    The Sun Times claimed that this “could be interpreted” as an attack on the Clintons. That prompted Drudge to grab the quote, making it his lead story and flacking it as an assault on Hillary.

    There’s only one problem: The Obama campaign says this wasn’t an attack on Hillary at all. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton has just sent me the following:

    “The only family Mrs. Obama was referring to was the Obama family.”

    So, was this an attack on Hillary? Could it “be interpreted” as such, as the Sun-Times put it? Or was this another case of a reporter getting rewarded by a Drudge link for practicing shoddy journalism?

    Well, other parts of the speech did draw a contrast between Hillary and Obama. But if you look at a transcript of her larger remark it certainly calls into question whether this particular line was an attack on Hillary, and suggests that she was indeed talking about the Obama family right then. Take a look at the transcript after the jump.

  65. It was a hit on Hillary. Gee, are people really that stupid. Of course she is not going to say Hillary can’t run the WH, because she can’t run her own house. But the underlying message could not be cleaer.

  66. mj,

    I just read M.O’s transcript. To be fair, she did not appear to attack Clintons if you read the full transcript. I’ll give her the benefit of doubt for now.

  67. If the remark was not a swipe at the Clintons then the Obama campaign is more dysfunctional than we currently know.

    Recall, Michelle made repeated references to Obama’s inability to keep the house orderly. According to the NYTimes “He doesn’t put his worn socks in with the dirty clothes. He’s worse than a 5-year-old at making the bed. And after he eats, he doesn’t put away the butter.”

    Maybe Michelle is saying that she’s ready to be president, not hubby.

  68. I just have to say this about that newest Iowa poll. Zogby is a reputable pollster, but when did that right-wing whacko NewsMax start commissioning polls, lol?

  69. Hey, the Northwest may be meaningless from the standpoint of the primaries but garnering support out here still would not be a bad idea. There are plenty of college students out here who could get energized by Hillary’s campaign, not to mention the appeal to other constituencies, including women first time voters and educated women. There are two Hillaries: the one that exists in people’s imaginations because the media and republicans invented her and the one that is the experienced change agent who is running for PResident. Voters in the northwest need to see the Hillary that we know. Just my opinion, –mollyj

  70. Rove also predicted he would knock Hillary out in the 2006 Senate Race (she won by 87%). She said back then that he was ‘obsessed with her’.

    Rove thinks this is the big “Joe Louis vs. Muhammad Ali” fight that never happened. Rove vs. the Clintons. In his dreams. Hillary would knock his head off and the Clintons don’t have to damage the country to win an election.

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