The polls are only one factor to consider in advertising decisions. The campaign has a lot to consider including what states to put resources into and what the other campaigns are doing in terms of resource distribution. Just because a campaign starts advertising somewhere does not mean there is softness in the polls. It’s all part of a much bigger picture.

It appears true that Obama did start advertising due to weakness everywhere and in his must win state of SC. In order to win SC Obama knew he had to improve his numbers in the earlier states. The ARG numbers are very bad news for Obama because if Obama comes in 3rd or 4th in Iowa, he’s cooked. Let’s remember – Obama is from a neighboring state, has campaigned extensively in Iowa and has spent a lot of money in Iowa – yet he keeps falling behind.

Hillary has much more room to move in. For instance, with the rise in importance of Florida, which votes on the same day as SC, Hillary does not have as much invested in SC as Obama. Obama must win SC, Hillary does not. Likewise, Edwards must win in Iowa, Hillary does not.

The point to remember is that these decisions are best left to the campaign inner circle. With Hillary we can have confidence in the decisions made by her team. This is usually not the case for Dems in presidential elections. Usually our team does not know what it is doing (for example, edwards and obama) and we remain jittery. The Hillary Team is worth investing confidence in. Obama supporters and Edwards supporters are the ones who have to second guess every move their campaigns make and worry about every fluctuation in the polls. We don’t have to worry or second guess.

Excellent point. So if we see no such move on her part, we can assume there hasn’t been any fundamental change in the numbers.

BTW, do you think Obama’s going to advertise nonstop for the next six months? That’ll burn up a heck of a lot of $$$. Yikes.

You’re right. They picked up pace after SC debate. They must have seen major leakage in polling data.

Regarding advertising, I agree 100% with the admin. I actually believe the longer she postpones advertising following Obama’s heavy early ads in early states, the better her polling internals are.

Obviously, if her campaign sees any leakage of her polling number in early states and major breakthrough of Obama, they will be under immediate pressure to put up ads.

If they don’t do this, that will only mean one thing: They are confident with the status of the race in that particular state.

Ads can usually give you a temporary boost if you don’t follow through.