Who’s On First?

The Outlook wasn’t brilliant for the Mudville nine that day:
The score stood four to two, with but one inning more to play.
And then when Cooney died at first, and Barrows did the same,
A sickly silence fell upon the patrons of the game.

The long July 4 holiday weekend is over. Memorial Day is but an increasingly dim memory. The long hot days of summer are before us. Baseball, books, and beaches beckon.

Travel with us for a moment, back in time, and enjoy a laugh or two.

Now, close your eyes and recall the now past cold days of winter. In January our favorite candidate had just announced she was running for president. She made a spectacular entrance. We were happy.

Other candidates then announced. Big Media took notice. ‘Oh,’ said Big Media, ‘she can’t be so popular’, ‘soon her popularity will fail, her poll numbers will droop.’ ‘Oh,’ said Big Bloggers, ‘soon her popularity will fail, her numbers will droop. It’s just her high name ID!’.

January left us, February went away. In entered March. ‘The End Is Near!’ cheered Big Pundits. ‘Any Day Now, the collapse!’ they proclaimed.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Anyway, the first discussion was about Hillary vs. Obama, with a lot of discussion of that Washington Post poll showing a shift to Obama among blacks (and no mention of the question of the sample size and margin of error). Unsurprisingly, the group was unanimous that Obama would or could catch Hillary by Memorial Day. (They were also unanimous that John McCain’s age would not be an issue.)

The Transcript:

[Interview: Kathleen Parker of Washington Post Writers Group; David Gregory, NBC News chief White House correspondent; Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times; and Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune. CHRIS MATTHEWS, anchor]

MATTHEWS: OK, let me go around the room. Will he, meaning Obama, catch
Hillary by Memorial Day in the polls?

Ms. PARKER: I think so.

MATTHEWS: David, Democratic primaries–Democratic vote.

Ms. PARKER: He’s going to move fast.

MATTHEWS: Will he catch her in that poll, the next poll we take on Memorial
Day?

GREGORY: Yeah.

Ms. BUMILLER: I think so.

Mr. PAGE: So many variables, but they–within shouting distance.

Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville – mighty Casey has struck out.

 

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28 thoughts on “Who’s On First?

  1. On Daily Kos, they were saying last winter that the numbers didn’t matter; we were too far out. We needed to look to the numbers in the summer; those are the numbers that will say something.

    On Daily Kos, they are saying this summer that the numbers don’t matter; we are too far out. We need to look to the number in the fall; those are the numbers that say something.

    In the undying words of our inebriate president, “Bring it on.”

  2. A new West Virginia poll shows Hillary beats Rudy and McCain

    Hillary 41
    McCain 34

    Hillary 42
    Rudy 36

    Her favorable ratings are also excellent in such a conservative state.
    Favorable 45
    unfavorable 39

    I don’t know why i can’t attach the web link.

  3. dcdemocrat right on target. the same clowns who say the polls to the nomination don’t matter now(becuase they are way behind hillary) they also site general election polls saying she is either unelectable or has high negatatives. more and more general election polls put hillary in stronger position. they want it both ways. pathetic.

  4. LMAO. This article is great. Why? Because its about the same MSNBC who today has an article on it that states “Nobody knew that Obama would become a frontrunner so quickly!!!”

    Well, as this re-posting of the Chris Mathew’s PANEL DISCUSSION points out, they ACTUALLY didn’t know that OBAMA would be doing so poorly this late in the election cycle.

    Nice SPIN, MSNBC.

    So I repeat LMAO!!!

  5. I hope Big Media keeps underestimating Hillary; I love to see them look so foolish over and over again. They never seem to learn, lol.

  6. Those polls should remove AL GORE from them. Its obvious he is not planning on running.

    I have noticed HOWEVER, that only Obama’s numbers significantly change when AL GORE is added to the mix.

    Hillary’s percentage stays the same. I interpret that as Hillary Supporters are solid in their support, and that Hillary supporters are not going to change their minds.

    Why would we? We have seen how capable Hillary Clinton is in any role she assumes. No need to re-invent the wheel.

  7. sandy1938,

    You are wrong. Without Al Gore, both Clinton and Obama gained 5 points. Here’s the result without Gore:

    Clinton 42
    Obama 26
    Edwards 16

    BTW, this poll is a full 4 points improvement for Clinton from last Gallup poll. Obama was flat.

  8. kostner:

    Correct me if I am wrong about this, but it seems to me that if Clinton were 16 points ahead of Obama, and Obama had 26 points, just the margin of Clinton’s lead is about three-fifths of Obama’s entire take. Now perhaps I am delusional, but it would seem to me that anyone who suggests Obama is giving Hillary “a run for her money” really just isn’t a serious political observer.

  9. The link to the Gallup poll is up. Waiting on a full data link. Also the link to Mark Penn’s fact based article is at Hillary Headlines. Some good Media Matters catches regarding Hillary are also posted.

    Thanks for the poll notification.

    Sandy1938 we missed the MSNBC link you pointed out. ‘Obama as frontrunner’ is the narrative that failed. We suspect anytime they detect the slightest pulse from Obama’s campaign they will proclaim a miracle and that he is a frontrunner exactly as planned and scheduled by his wise men. Hillary’s campaign they will portray at every opportunity as ‘panicked’ and ‘shocked’.

    As DCDem suggests, whoever makes these types of analyses “really just isn’t a serious political observer.”

  10. Just watched MSNBC Tucker Carson’s show. I’m wondering who can get a transcript. The female pundit from Salon(didn’t write down her name) was an absolute idiot. She kept on talking about the ‘apathy’ towards Hillary from her 18-month interviews over hundreds of women. Then Tucker confronted her with polls and polls which showed Hillary had a commanding lead among women. She kept on saying ‘I saw those polls, but I can’t explain the difference between polls and what I’ve seen.’ She then kept spouting sometimes polls was unable to explain everything.

    This is the most idiotic pundit. It’s like those ‘I have never met any guy who likes George W. and I can’t believe why he won’ stuff.

    Somebody needs to get a transcript. Hilarious.

  11. Kostner: Tucker Carlson subjected you to Melinda Henneberger of yesterday’s Nexus of Nuts post. Polls mean nothing to her. She needs a lesson between objective and subjective “truth”.

  12. I’m sorry, she used the word ‘antipathy’ to describe women’s attitude towards Hillary.

    Who is this woman on Tucker show? She is absolutely horrible. I mean, even idiot Tucker whipped her badly. We really need to get a transcript. Tucker showed her a poll that Hillary leading Obama by 60 something to 10 something among low-income women, and asked her to reconcile what she heard and the polls. She just kept on saying stuff like I can’t explain, but all those women I interviewed really hate Hillary.

    It’s just horrible. This lady is from Salon or sth.

  13. Hey you all,
    I agree with Paula – I also hope the News corporations underestimate Hillary and when she finally pulls it off success is going to taste so much sweeter! Go Hillary Go!!!!!

  14. The MSNBC story I was referencing is http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19654377/page/2/.

    The quote of theirs that inspired my posting was

    “No one is shocked that Hillary Clinton is still the leading candidate but the most underappreciated story of the Democratic race is the rise of Obama. It’s not just the money, it’s also the fact that he’s such a solid No. 2 already. I think many of us expected Obama to be a player in this thing but I don’t think many of us thought we’d already been in a “Will it be Clinton or Obama?” conversation this early in the process.”

    This completely contradicts what Chris Mathews and his PANEL stated in MARCH.

    And KOSTNER, thank you for the clarification about AL GORE’s effect on the polls. In other words, AL GORE’s impact is actually irrelevant to both candidates, which means that Hillary’s lead is actually stronger than the current polls suggest.

  15. admin, i have tried to post the link to the MSNBC article several times. For some reason it is not working.

    In any case, what MSNBC said today was “No one is shocked that Hillary Clinton is still the leading candidate but the most underappreciated story of the Democratic race is the rise of Obama. ”

    Which is ironic, since they had overhyped the OBAMA story from the beginning.

  16. KOSTNER,

    yes i just saw that new Poll and you are correct, which is actually even better news for Hillary supporters!!!!

    My point was that most Hillary supporters have already made up their minds about Hillary.

  17. Folks, just remember, more than 60% of Democrats
    are happy with their choices. That means Democrats are tuned in to the primary process
    this early. Democrats are active which indicates
    the poll numbers will remain fairly steady. Polls
    indicate that Edwards and Obama supporters
    would vote Hillary as their second choice. This
    futher indicates a very strong base of support
    with in the party despite the large number of
    candidates.

  18. Kegs: Democrats are tuned in because there is hardly a one of us who can’t wait for the Bush nightmare to be history.

  19. As Staff would say ‘Watch out for EHS’.

    Check out the poll we just posted.

    In Obama’s home state of Illinois Hillary is 4% behind Obama.

    Looks like Hillary has a 50 state strategy.

  20. DailyKos bloggers like to say that polls don’t matter, especially because hillary has been up consistently while their fave Edwards is down. They also like to say that Hillary isn’t progressive or liberal, and obviosly haven’t any idea what the words mean. They seem to think Edwards with all his recent rhetoric is the most progressive…what a joke!

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