Confuse Your Friends

A little housekeeping note before we do our regular post or posts. Hillary Is 44! button galley

The “Hillary Is 44!” campaign buttons will be shipping this week. We will soon all be able to strut around our towns and villages proclaiming our candidate of choice — with her name literally on our chests. We have put up a galley proof of how the button looks.

The initial reaction to “Hillary is 44” is generally “She’s that young?” then a quick realization of what it actually means. When our friends who support Obama tout their candidate’s relative youth and inexperience by reminding us that Obama is 45 years old, we delight in saying “Obama is 45. Hillary is 44!”

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3 thoughts on “Confuse Your Friends

  1. Thanks for the info. We posted it in our regular polls place on the right hand side column.

    Rasmussen is the poll which has consistently skewed against Hillary’s numbers.

    This will make heads explode. Here are some excerpts from the Rasmussen page:

    New York Senator Hillary Clinton has a double-digit solid lead over all challengers in her quest for the Democratic Presidential nomination. That’s the second time in three weeks she has enjoyed a solid lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Clinton at 35%, Senator Barack Obama at 25%, and former Senator John Edwards at 18%. That’s the highest level of support we’ve ever measured for Edwards. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is solidly atop the second tier of candidates with 5% support.

    While the current numbers show a different top-line result and give the appearance of volatility, the race has assumed a fairly stable dynamic—it’s all about Clinton. The data suggests that the race may ultimately come down to Clinton versus a challenger still to be determined.

    First, Clinton’s support has been remarkably stable. For seven of the past eight weeks, her overall level of support has been in the 32% to 35% range. For the last three weeks, she’s been at either 34% or 35%. People know what they like and don’t like about the woman who has been a very visible national figure for 15 years.

    Second, while Clinton’s lead has virtually disappeared at times when independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary are included in the total, there has been more stability among core Democrats. Over the past three weeks, her lead among Democrats has not dipped below 8 percentage points.

    Third, the volatility of her overall lead has more to do with shifting perceptions of those trying to catch her. Clinton routinely attracts about 20% of the vote among independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Last week, Obama fared very well among these independent voters and closed the top-line gap with Clinton. This week, while Clinton’s support is steady among independents, Edwards has slightly more support than Obama in this group. Again, Clinton’s numbers are stable while the challengers jockey for position behind her.

    Not surprisingly, this suggests that independents are less committed to their choice than core Democrats and that a significant segment of the independent voting population is looking for a Democrat other than Clinton. This puts great significance on the Iowa caucuses which may help clarify who will emerge as Clinton’s major challenger. If the current trends were to continue throughout the Primary season, Clinton would handily win the states allowing only Democrats to vote while her challenger would be more competitive in others.

    This also puts Clinton in a similar position to John Kerry in 2004 and George W. Bush in 2000.

  2. I think it is also important to evaluate Hillary’s, Obama’s, and Edwards’s numbers in light of the head-to-head races. Hillary consistently shows, one-on-one, double digit leads over her competition. What this says to me is that he leads in the multi-candidate pool are solid and represent significant hurdles over which the other candidates would have to jump to achieve dominance in this field.

    On another note, for the first time in my 48 years, I answered a telephone call from a pollster (Zogby) asking for my presidential preference. Having just put a Hillary bumper sticker on the back of my car a few minutes before, I offered no hesitation concerning who is getting my voite.

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